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HEADLINES
Pound Sees A Delayed Rally On A PMI Services Beat Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3160 TGT 1.3140/1.3110 SL 1.3190
USD/CHF has rebounded further off the 7th square root progression of the year-the year-todate high in the .9145 area
Subsequent strength through the 2nd square root progression of the August low at .9335 has shifted our near-term trend bias to positive
Immediate focus is on the 38% retracement of the July to August decline at .9375 with strength above needed to expose Gann points at .9405 and .9440
A couple of minor turn windows are seen over the next few days, but a more important window is eyed around the middle of next week
A confluence of Gann support levels near .9260 needs to be breached to undermine the burgeoning positive structure in the rate
ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 47(BEARISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>48(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>66(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>32(BEARISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>44(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Sep 1
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Notes
01:00
CNY Manufacturing PMI NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG) AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG) JPY Capital Spending (2Q) JPY Capital Spending excl Software (2Q) JPY Company Profits (2Q) JPY Company Sales (2Q) AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (AUG) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG) AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL) AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Inventories (2Q) CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG) JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG) AUD RBA Commodity Index (AUG) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG) CHF PMI Manufacturing (AUG) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)
Medium
51.0
50.6
50.3
22:45
Medium
4.9%
3.8%
4.2%
23:01
Low
0.4%
0.3%
23:01
Low
1.8%
1.3%
23:30
Medium
46.4
42.0
23:50
Medium
0.0%
-2.1%
-3.9%
23:50
Medium
1.4%
-3.8%
-5.2%
23:50
Low
24.0%
6.0%
23:50
Low
-0.5%
-5.8%
Mon Sep 2
00:00
Low
0.5%
1.6%
00:30
Low
0.1%
0.5%
00:30
Low
2.1%
2.7%
01:30
Low
10.8%
4.0%
-6.3%
01:30
Low
28.3%
20.0%
-11.8%
01:30
Low
-0.8%
0.9%
3.5%
01:30
Low
0.2%
0.1%
-0.5%
01:45
Medium
50.1
50.2
47.7
05:00
Low
-6.4%
-13.5%
06:30
Low
94.3
91.8
06:30
Low
-7.3%
9.7%
07:30
Low
54.6
56.0
57.4
07:45
Low
51.3
50.8
50.4
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) GBP BoE Publishes Data on Funding for Lending GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG) EUR Schaeuble Briefs on Greek Aid Package 3 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Berlin on OMT Proram GBP BoE Governor Mark Carney Press Briefing Before G20 Summit GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (AUG) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG) JPY Monetary Base End of period (AUG) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (AUG) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
49.7
49.7
49.7
07:55
Medium
51.8
52.0
52.0
08:00
Medium
51.4
51.3
51.3
08:30
Medium
08:30
Medium
57.2
55.0
54.8
09:00
Medium
11:20
Low
11:30
Medium
23:01
Low
2.4%
2.2%
23:50
Medium
38%
23:50
Low
173.3T
Tue Sep 3
Low
5.6%
4.6%
Low
0.8%
0.9%
01:00
CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (AUG) NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG) AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL) AUD Net Exports of GDP (2Q) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (SEP 3) CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)
Medium
54.1
01:00
Low
0.6%
01:30
Medium
-8.5B
-8.5B
01:30
Medium
0.4%
0.0%
01:30
Low
0.1
01:30
Low
0.6%
04:30
LIVE
High
2.5%
2.5%
05:45
High
1.7%
1.2%
05:45
Medium
0.3%
0.6%
08:30
Medium
56.9
57.0
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) USD Markit US PMI Final (AUG) USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL) USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (2Q) NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (AUG) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG) AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG) AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (AUG) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Low
0.1%
0.0%
09:00
Low
0.1%
0.3%
12:58
Medium
54.0
14:00
High
54
55.4
14:00
Medium
0.3%
-0.6%
14:00
Medium
51.2
49
14:00
Low
46
45.1
21:00
Low
22:45
Low
5.8%
23:01
Low
-0.5%
23:30
Medium
39.4
Wed Sep 4
01:30
LIVE
High
0.6%
0.6%
01:30
LIVE
High
2.5%
2.5%
01:45
Medium
51.3
07:45
Low
48.7
07:50
Low
47.7
47.7
07:55
Medium
52.4
52.4
08:00
Medium
51.7
51.7
08:00
Medium
51
51
08:30
Medium
59
60.2
08:30
Low
$1672M
09:00
High
0.3%
0.3%
09:00
High
-0.7%
-0.7%
09:00
Medium
-0.3%
-0.9%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 30) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (AUG) USD Trade Balance (JUL) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUL) USD ISM New York (AUG) CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (SEP 4) USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (AUG) USD Total Vehicle Sales (AUG) JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (SEP 5) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (SEP 5) USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (SEP 5) GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (SEP) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 5) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 5)
Low
-0.1%
09:00
Low
-1.6%
09:00
Low
0.1%
09:00
Low
0.4%
-0.5%
11:00
Low
-2.5%
11:30
Low
2.3%
12:30
Medium
-$38.6B
-$34.2B
12:30
Low
-0.40B
-0.47B
13:45
Low
67.8
14:00
High
1.00%
1.00%
16:30
Low
18:00
High
21:00
Low
12.20M
12.09M
21:00
Low
15.80M
15.60M
Thu Sep 5
High
270T
High
00:00
Low
01:30
Medium
100M
602M
10:00
Medium
2.7%
4.3%
10:00
Low
-1.0%
3.8%
11:00
LIVE
High
0.5%
0.5%
11:00
LIVE
High
375B
375B
11:45
LIVE
High
0.5%
0.5%
11:45
LIVE
Medium
0.0%
0.0%
12:15
USD ADP Employment Change (AUG) USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 31) USD Continuing Claims (AUG 24) USD Non-Farm Productivity (2Q F) USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q F) USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin USD Factory Orders (JUL) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (AUG) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 30) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 30) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 30) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (AUG) JPY Official Reserve Assets (AUG) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
180K
200K
12:30
Medium
330K
331K
12:30
Low
2989K
12:30
Low
1.5%
0.9%
12:30
Low
1.0%
1.4%
13:00
Low
14:00
Medium
-3.50%
1.50%
14:00
Medium
55
56
15:00
Low
2986K
15:00
Low
-316K
15:00
Low
-587K
23:30
Medium
44.1
23:50
Low
$1254.0B
Fri Sep 6
Low
12.7%
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for September JPY Coincident Index (JUL P) JPY Leading Index (JUL P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUL) EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUL) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL) EUR German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (2Q) EUR German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (AUG)
Medium
05:00
Medium
106.9
105.5
05:00
Medium
107.9
107.2
06:00
Medium
16.3B
16.9B
06:00
Low
14.0B
17.3B
06:00
Low
0.8%
0.6%
06:00
Low
0.7%
-0.8%
06:00
Low
1.1%
06:00
Low
3.9%
06:30
Low
A$55.5B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG) CHF CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q) CHF CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (AUG) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUL) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL) USD Fed's Evans Speaks in South Carolina CAD Net Change in Employment (AUG) CAD Unemployment Rate (AUG) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (AUG) USD Unemployment Rate (AUG) CAD Full Time Employment Change (AUG) USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) USD Change in Private Payrolls (AUG)
Low
434.9B
07:15
Medium
0.5%
07:15
Medium
0.0%
0.0%
07:15
Medium
3.0%
07:15
Low
0.0%
07:15
Low
0.0%
-0.4%
08:30
Medium
3.6%
08:30
Medium
-1.7%
1.2%
08:30
Medium
-0.7%
2.0%
08:30
Medium
-1700
-1548
08:30
Low
0.0%
1.1%
08:30
Low
0.3%
1.9%
08:30
Low
-2950
-2646
08:30
Low
-8200
-8082
10:00
Medium
0.6%
2.0%
10:00
Low
-0.5%
2.4%
12:00
Low
12:30
High
30.0K
-39.4K
12:30
High
7.2%
7.2%
12:30
LIVE
High
180K
162K
12:30
LIVE
High
7.4%
7.4%
12:30
Medium
-18.3
12:30
Medium
2.0%
1.9%
12:30
Medium
175K
161K
12:30
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG) USD Underemployment Rate (AUG) CAD Part Time Employment Change (AUG) CAD Participation Rate (AUG) USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (AUG) USD Change in Household Employment (AUG) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (AUG) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (AUG) USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska
Medium
63.4%
12:30
Medium
14.0%
12:30
Low
-21.2
12:30
Low
66.5
12:30
Low
0.2%
-0.1%
12:30
Low
34.5
34.4
12:30
Low
227K
12:30
Low
5K
6K
12:30
Low
14:00
High
0.7%
14:00
Medium
54
48.4
17:30
Low
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