TREND:ADEFINITION O

AtrendisaTRANSITORYDECREASEOVERTIME Theyareusuallyclassifiedbydurationandpenetration, visualisedascurveswithtimeonthebottomaxisand consumeradoptionratesontheverticalaxis Inthiswayitseasytoshowthedifferencebetween TheSHORTESTTRENDSor FADS TheLONGESTTRENDSor CLASSICS

Trendsarenotexplicit,astheystillhavetobeidentified Theyappearacrossdifferentcultures,targets,socialnetworks, anddifferenttheatresofconsumption,likethestreets Peoplewhoworkwithtrendsdealwiththetaskofsensingthe t d,capturing trend t i what h treally ll matters tt and di inserting ti itwithin ithi aninterpretativestructure thatwillthenbeappliedtothe worldofstrategicmarketing

Whatmatters/inaninterpretativestructure/applied tostrategicmarketing

EVOLUTION O U O OF O ATREND
Therearethreestages g intheevolutionofatrend 1.FRINGE Astagewhenaninnovationarisesandthetrendiest consumersbegintoparticipate 2.TRENDY Astagewhenawarenessofthetrendsgrowsbecause earlyadoptersjointheinnovatorstoincreasethevisibility ofthetrendandthemostfashionforwardbrandsand retailerstesttheconcept 3.MAINSTREAM Astagewhenmoreconservativeconsumersjoinin, visibilitycontinuestoincrease,andcorporationand brandscapitalizeonthegrowingdemand

SOMEEXAMPLES
Surfing, g,skateboarding, g,snowboarding g,allstartedatthefringe g of thesportsworldamongasmallgroupofenthusiasts.Eachgroup evolvedanidentifyingstyle Whenmorepeoplebecameawareofthesports,thestylesbecame trendy.Fashionjournalistsandforecastersbegantoidentifythe styleasfashionforwardandsomelargebrandsbegantotestthe looksinsmallcollections Someinterestingvariations:urbaninfluenceslikehiphopbecame directionalforthethree.Graphictshirtsandhoodieswereeasily assimilatedintomainstreamfashion,butmoreextremestyleslike pipejeansremainednicheproducts.

FADS, ,FASHIONS&CLASSICS
FADS havebeendefinedindifferentways: y asinvolvingfewerpeopleorshorterduration,andmorepersonal thanotherfashionchanges asoutsidehistoricalcontinuity,eachspringingupindependently, withnosuccessorandnoforerunner assatisfyingonlyonemainneed,theneedforanewexperience experience, andhavinglittlevalueafterthenewnesswearsoff FASHIONS arethemselvesofshortdurationwhencomparedtolong termsocialchanges.Fadsarefashionsofevenshorterduration

CLASSIC:itsastyle y thatchanges g minimally yovertime Itremainswithintheacceptablerange intermsof attributesofferedandexpenditureintermsoftimeand money Classicsrepresentsmidpointcompromisesthatdeliver atleastthecoreattributesdesiderabletotheconsumer Classicsappealtoaspecialkindofpersonalityseeking toavoidextremesinstyling

HOWDOTRENDSMOVE?
Forecastersseeking gtovisualize theway ytrendsmovethrough g culturehaveseveralalternatives: Aninformationcascade,fromfashionleaderstofollowers Attachmentofacatchylabel(importanttoatrendspopularity)a coattaileffectduringwhichthetrendbuildsamongthemostfashion forward,andflowwhereitmovesintothemainstream Tricklingdownfromtheelite,upfromthestreetandacross consumersegments Contagionwherethetrendsmovesfrompersontopersonlikethe flu

CONTAGION
Thetransmissionoftrendshasbeenlikenedtothespread p ofavirus Manufacturersshouldaimforstickylookswithflulikestaying power becauseconsumersdontwantlooksthatquickly power, disappear (MalcolmGladwell,TheNewYorker) Principlesforturningordinaryideasintothosewithstickiness simplicity unexpectedness concreteness credibility emotionallyinvolving easilycommunicatedthroughstories

Trendsmustbevisibletop possibleadopters p inordertospread: p BUZZ:excitementaboutsomethingnew.Iscreatedwhentrends passthroughmedianetworks, networks movingfromoneformattoanother another: fromnewsmagazinestotalkshows,fromthemorningshowstolate night Receivinginformationsonatrendinthiswaygivestheconsumera feelingofbeingin intheknow know VIRALMARKETING:buildsonthepowerofwordofmouthin personalnetworksandbuzzinmedianetworks.Theideaistospread amessagetoawidepopulationbybeginningwithafewkeycarriers

Viralmarketing ggives g consumersthefeeling gthatthey yare discoveringproductsthroughpersonalormedianetworks Practitionersofviralmarketing may: may Fieldstreetteamsofyoungpeoplewhovisitclubs,sportingevents, concertsandotherhotspotsinurbanmarketsanddistribute stickers,posters Createaneventsuchasununfoldingdramaactedoutonadjacent billboardsplacedinaprimurbanlocation Giveawaynextseasonsdesignstoeditors,stylists,artists, deejays internetentrepreneurs deejays, entrepreneurs,writers writers,fashionbloggerswhomay beseenandphotographedwearingthedesignsasawaytobuild buzz

TRENDANALYSISANDSYNTHESIS
People p onalllikelihoodareamemberofastyle y tribebecauseof wheretheylive,howtheymakealiving,orhowtheychoosetospend theirleisuretime Groupsevolveawayofdressingthatsignalsthegroupsidentityand aestheticcode Becausethereexistsanalmostinfiniteuniverseofstylevariations,the possibilitiesforindividualexpressionandgroupidentificationarealso infinite Yetpeoplesstylescanbeclassifiedintogeneralcategories

Marketerscalltheseclassificationschemes CONSUMERSEGMENTATION

FORECASTERTOOLBOX:5.
Analysisandsynthesisarethetwofacesofforecasting: ANALYSIS:aphenomenonisdissectedtoachieveamorecomplete understandingofitscomponents SYNTHESIS:acreativereintegrationoftheparts Infashion I f hi that h means: Anaccuratereadingofthetrendinallitssubtleaspects Matchingthetrendwiththeconsumersegmentmostlikelytoadoptit initially Matchingthetrendwiththeproductcategory,pricepointandretail concept p mostlikely ytocomplement p it Andthen:theforecasterhypothesizesaboutwhatitwilltaketoenergize andacceleratetheflowofthetrendacrossconsumersegments

CONSUMERSEGMENTATION
Once,notlongago,atrendmovedfromafewfashionforwardconsumers tothemainstream,themajorityofconsumers. consumers Butdoesthemainstream evenexistanymore? Mosttrendstodaymovewithinnichesandfewarepickedupbythe majorityofconsumers So,nowmorethan S h ever,forecasters f and dother h f fashion hi i industry d professionals f i l mustpaycarefulattentiontothedefinitionsofmarketnichesandtarget audience Atargetaudiencecanbedefinedasoneormoreconsumersegments,each withcertaindemographic g p characteristicssuchasage, g gender, g ethnicity yand income

DEMOGRAPHICS
Segmentationstrategiesbasedondemographics consumercharacteristics suchasage age,gender gender,maritalstatusandoccupation todayarenolonger effective,becauseconsumerattitudesandbehaviourarenotdriven primarilybydemographics Sometimes aproductcrossesboundariesbyappealingtoconsumersin widedemographiccategories(teenagers),buttoonlyasmallnumberof people l overall ll( (the h E Emos) ) Consumerscanbehaveinunexpectedways:veryaffluentconsumers combineluxurybrandedgoodsfromspecialtystoresandbasicsfrom discountretailers Someoftodaysconsumersstillridethetrendwavesoffashionbutothers aredecidedlyantifashion Thisapproachseemstoosimplisticfortodaysmarketplace

PSYCOGRAPHICS
Segmentationstrategiesbasedonpsychographics consumerpsychology plusdemographics helpidentifyaconsumersegmentbysharedvalues values, attitudes,preferencesandbehaviors Todaymarketersviewthevaluesystemembeddedineachindividual the consumersculture ashavingmoreimpactthandemographics The Th consumers culture l canoverrule l d demographic hi classifications l ifi i :high hi h incomehouseholdsconsiderbrandqualitytobemoreimportantthando consumersatlowerincomelevels Healthfitnessandnutritionconsciousconsumerscomprisearelatively smallbutinfluentialsegment g ofconsumersinalldemographic g p categories g Althoughtheymaybeofdifferentagesandcomefromvariousincome ranges,theyaremorealikethandifferent

GEODEMOGRAPHICS
Segmentationstrategiesbasedongeodemographicslinkgeographyand demographicstoshowtheclusteringofsimilarpeopleinaneighbourhood Censusdataonage,income,ethnicityandothercategoriesaresmoothed outtocreateanidentity identity,label label,andaffluenceratingforaneighbourhood Theresultingclustersareusefulforpinpointinglocationsfornewstores ormalls, ll totargetmailings ili of fcatalogs l and dtoreveal linsights i i h about b consumerpreferences Geodemographicsisusefultoforecastersinpinpointingthemarkets wherehottrendsbeginandinmappingtheirpotentialdiffusion.Itallowsto locatediverseneighbourhoods g whereconsumption p p patternstoday ymay y anticipatethosethatwilldevelopinotherlocalesasthefutureunfolds.

GENERATIONALCOHORTS
TheysharethesameAGELOCATIONinhistoryandaCOLLECTIVEMINDSET Groupmembershipis Involuntary Permanent Finite Frombi F birth hon,all llmembers b encounterthe h sameevents,moods d and dtrends d atsimilarages,givingeachcohortadistinctbiographyandapeer personality Individualsinthecohortmayagreewiththevaluesandviewpointsoftheir generation,orspend g p alifetimebattling gagainst g it

1.THEGRAYGENERATION
Thosebornbetween1901and1924:theylivedthroughtheGreat Depression theylivedorfoughtinWWII. Depression, WWII Thisgenerationhasdeclinedto5millions Consumptionismostlylimitedtodailymaintenanceandhealthcare

Thosebornbetween1925and1945:theyarealsocalledthesilent generation,althoughtheyarebeginningtotalk Thisgenerationcountsfor45millions Theyareusuallyneglectedbydesigners,retailers,advertisingandmedia

Infactthe6075yearoldgroup isthesecondfastest growingagesegment:in2010onethirdofthe population isover50 Peopleinthisagegrouptendtofeelastheywere10/15 yearsyounger,buthasbeenmarketed,sofar,asifthey wereolder Maturepeoplehavemoneytospend andenjoynew products as muchasanyone Th dress They d up moreoften ft than th youngerpeople l

Theyprefertoshopforapparelandaccessoriesby catalogue,viatheInternetoratdepartmentstores Theyarestillveryattentivetoquality (fibers, (fibers fabrics) Theyarediffident towardsproductscomingfrom abroad b d Theywantclothesthatgivethem physical,psychological andsocialcomfort Futuremarketerswillneedtocatertoamore conservativevalue function comfort andquality orientedconsumer

2 THEBABYBOOMERS 2.
TheagegroupcausedbytheincreaseinthebirthrateafterWWIIis stillthelargestgenerationandtheprimaryspendinggroupinthe westerncountries Theyshopawidevarietyofretailvenuesfromluxuryspecialty storestodiscounters. discounters Womenfrom45to62yearsoldspendmore onclothingpercapitathananyotheragegroup Theysufferaseriesofstereotypicalideasabouttheirstyle sensibility

Theyhavedistinctandfirmideas aboutwhattheywant Theyexpectmoreservice service,comfort comfort,andquality Theywantthesamefashionasyoungpeople withappropriate lengthandfit Theywerethefirsttvgeneration Theycountfor75millionboomers Theycontrolmuchofthenations nation swealthandretireattherateof oneeveryeightseconds

3 GENERATIONX 3.
AlsocalledtheBabyBusters,theyarebornbetween1965and1979 Thisagegroupismuchsmaller thantheoneprecedingit Theyareintheir30sandearly40s Theyarecareeroriented,familyoriented orboth,buttheywere thefirsttoexperiencetheriskofbeingchildrenofdivorce Theirspendingpatternsreflecttheseinterests,withmorespending onhousing,homegoods,transportation,education

Theyarethefirstcomputergeneration Theyareexperiencedshoppers shoppers,fondofpopularcultureandcynical aboutmediamanipulation Theyareasmallgeneration(9millionfewerthanthebaby boomers) Theydont don trespondtoconventionalmediaandaredifficultto targetinthefragmentationoftheInternet

4 GENERATIONY 4.
Thisisfashionmarketingsmostsoughtafterconsumergroup:they arealsocalledthebabyboomlet,millenniumgenerationortheNet Generation Theirbirthratebeganin1980andgoesuntil1995 Theyarearaciallydiversegroup,withaglobalsports,computer andentertainmentorientationthataffectstheirbuyingdecision Ads,tvshows,movies,websitesandmagazinesarecreated specificallyforthismarket THISISTHEGENERATIONTHATISRETHINKINGEVERYTHINGAND TAKINGTHEFASHIONINDUSTRYWITHTHEM

Theyarefashionhungry andhaveapassionforbuyingclothes,but usuallycannotaffordtospendasmuchasbabyboomers Theytendtoconcentratemoreoncareer thanfamily Theytendtopreferspecialtyapparelchains andsmallboutiques, The bo tiq es butalsothebig,internationalflagshipstores Theyrepresent Th tthe th most tsignificant i ifi tpolarisation l i ti of ft todays d demography:ononesidewehavethebabyboomers,ontheother thebabyboomlet Attentivetocyberspace,fickleintheirtastesandexpectingthe best,thisgroupfavorsbrandsandretailerswithstrongecological orhumanitarianrecords

FORECASTERTOOLBOX TOOLBOX:5 5.
Demographersarentpreciseinplacingdividinglinesbetween generations,butGENYprobablyendedin2000andanew generation yettobenamed generation, named,isbeingborn Identifyinggenerationsinothercultureshelpsforecastersandother fashionprofessionalsunderstandanddefineglobalmarketing opportunities China islikelytobecomethelargestretaileconomyandthe spendingpowerwillbeinthehandsoftheonlychildgeneration: profiledasurban,educated,rangingfromlateteenstoearly thirties, hi i with i hrising i i disposable di bl incomes i TheChinesewhoarepartofthisgenerationgrewupduringboom times,embracefashionandenjoyspendingmoneyonthemselves

LIFESTYLESEGMENTS
Thepsychographicapproachwasbornintheearly1970s:societywasbeing remadebyyoungpeoplewhodroppedoutratherthangetmarriedandstart familiesandcareers,andbywomenwhobeganchoosingcareersover traditionalhomemakerroles Lifestyleresearchwasanattempttounderstandthechangingsocialorder, byanalysing ATTITUDES INTERESTS OPINIONS Howdoconsumersspendtheirtime?Whatinterestsareimportanttothem? Howdothey yviewthemselves?Whatopinions p dothey yholdabouttheworld aroundthem?

ETHNICDIVERSITY
Migrationphenomenon:intheUnitedStatesyouhavemorethan 700.000legalimmigrantsperyear Black,Hispanic,AsianandNativeAmericanwillgrowasfastasthe whitemajority Peopleofdifferentculturalbackgroundslookfordifferentthingsin afashionpurchase Theyhavevariousculturalandreligiousperceptionsand partialitiesregardingstyling,colour,pattern,fabrics,fit&value Retailers,manufacturersandtrendsetterswillhavetocatertothese variousmarketsegments

MS INDIPENDENTS MS.
Morethan75%ofthefemalepopulationaged20to60are employed.Morethan22millionwomenlivealoneorheadsingle womenhouseholds Theymakemorepurchasingdecisions Dividingtheirdaysbetweenfamilyandcareer,TIME becomesa criticalissue Theytendtoshoplessandfavorconvenient,onestopshopping Theyarepractical, practical concrete,nodesireofsocialrecognismentasin the80s Highdisposableincomestospendonthemselves, themselves theywatchstyle andhomedcorshowsontvandareinterestedequallyinhighend fashionandinteriordesign

LARGERSIZES
Thereisanincreasingnumberofpeoplewearinglargersizes:asthe populationages,peoplearegettingheavier(approx68%of Americansareoverweight) Fashiondesignersarecreatingdedicatedcollections,whotrytobe feminineandsexy, sexy focusingonbodystrength Asaresult,retailstoresaredevotingmoresquarefootagetolarge sizeapparel:inAustralia, Australia Myershaschangedthebodyshapeofthe windowsmannequin,fromsize32to38(from40to44inEU) Advertisingisdedicatingmoreattentiontothistarget Celebritiesarenotafraidtoshowthemselveseveniftheyarecurvy

COCOONERS
Manypeopletrytoinsulatethemselvesfromthefearsofterrorism, warandcrimebystayinghomeasmuchaspossible TheyshoplessorshopbycatalogorontheInternet Manyofthemarepeopleworkingfromhome,whogetusedtonew waysofconsumption Theylovetoorganisetheirlifeindetail, detail tobuildasafenestforthem andthefamily

KARMAQUEENS
Babyboomerwomenwho haventlosttheirhippie sensibilities respondto sensibilities, womantowomanbrand appeals, pp , Showinterestinproductsthat relatetomindbodyspirit Theyhaveaspiritualapproach tolife Theydrivequirkyautomobiles

DENIMDADS
Theyarestayathomedadswhoseekbalanceinworkandlife Spendlotsoftimeonline Shareintheirkidsmusicaltastes

ELITISTS
Coupleswholookforstatusandbraggingrightswithinthegreen movementwithoutconcernforprices Shopfororganicfoodsandearthfriendlyproducts ListentoNationalPublicRadio Drivehybridcars

LIFESTAGES
Similarityinpatternsofconsumerbehaviourcanbetracedtothe lifestageoftheconsumer Consumptionprioritiesalterdependingonthestageoflifeand theaccompanyingtasksandchallenges Thelifestagesapproachrepresentcons consumption mptionofdifferent productsandthepursuitofdifferentkindsofexperience: consumersatallagesparticipateineachkindofspending

CHILDREN
Childrenbetween6and11years oldshowanever increasingdemand forthelatestfashionbrands,trainers, CDs mobilephonesandcomputergames CDs, Theconsumptionofclothingandthewearingof f hi arei fashion importantmarkers k of fid identity i aschildren hild growolder Influencesfrompopularculture,especiallypopstars andfootballers,functionasanimportantpointofreference forchildren Awarenessofwhatiscoolandwhat isnotits it sevidentamongstchildrenasyoungassix

Accesstothelatestfashionswhich carriedhighstatuslabelsandlogos could ldbe b significant i ifi in i respectof f childrensexperienceofsocial Inclusionorexclusion Evidenceofgrowth inthe Childrenswearmarkethasbeen steady ratherthanexceptionalin recentyears Growthismoreevidentatthetop, designerlabelend,thoughthis Remainsasmallpercentageofthe Marketoverall,andatthevalueend ofthemarket

Datafromthechildrenhavedemonstrated theirclearsenseofsuitabilityandacceptability Oftenexpressedintermsofnot wishingtolooksilly, awfuloroutofplace,childrenconstructsensesof normalityandabnormalitywhichcangoverndress codesaswellasoverallpresentationofself/identity Inp particularchildrenexpressed p concernaboutwhattheir friendswouldthink oftheclothestheychoseorwere requiredtowear Forsomethisemphasisedtheneedtofitin,forfearofbeingwrongly judgedbytheirpeers

Jessica(tenyearsold): Peopleseewhatyoulooklike beforetheyrealisewhatyouarelike. Sothey h judge d you beforetheyreallyfindoutyourpersonality. Soyoushow yourpersonalityinwhatyouarewearing

Theadultificationofchildrensclothing Refers f tothe h waysin i which hi hchildrens hild clothing l hi was perceivedbothbyparentsandtheindustrytoincreasingly replicateadultsclothing insomeareas Particularanxietycentredonthelinkageofthiswiththe sexualisationofg girlsclothing g toincludeoverly yadultstyles, y , particularlythosewhichexposealotofflesh Theroleofstorebuyers hereiscriticalinmakingjudgements concerninggoodandbadtaste butnosetpoliciesor regulationexistedaboveandbeyondthatwhichmaybe imposedbysafetyortradingstandards

WOMEN
Womenarethemostpowerfultarget forfashion:they accept andtheydefinenewtrends Todaythepredominantstyle is Casual H b id Hybrid Mixing hautecouturewithfastfashion Expressingfemininity,butneverinaprovocativeway Influencescomefromtvshows andgroupofpeers, virtualorreal,magazines, g ,blogthat g functionasan importantpointofreferenceandinspiration

Sparetimelook lookisdifficulttodefinebecauseitdependsonpersonal inclinations.Office isthemaingroundtoexpressyourownstyle (GraziaSurvey,2009) 57% ofwomengoforacasual,detailedlook 20% choosedenim 9womenon10donotrenouncetohighheels Nothing gisreally ycasual:womenadmittostay yhoursinfrontofthe mirror(63%)andasignificant23%admitstoseeofficecorridorsasa catwalk Alow2%prefersbeingcomfortable,andchoosetrainersand tracksuit

Beinglamodemeansdevelopyourownstyle,studying seasonstrends(65%) Thebestdressistheonethatmakesyoufeelsecureand Comfortableduringaninterview(49%) oranightoutwithyour love(56%) Themusthave ofevery yclosetare: Awhiteblouse(26%) Jeans(45%) Blackdcolletshoes(38%)

Thebestappareltobesexyare:highheels(45 (45,5%) 5%) Underwear isbasicandmustmatchwiththerest(43%)

MEN
Menfashionisgoingtroughatoughtime.Thelatestedition OfPittiUomo(jan2010)markeda9%insales Tworeasons first,menareusedto dressinaclassicalway ( the (at h office, ffi in i particular), i l ) sothey h do d notbuy b asfrequently f l aswomen.Theybuyasuitandtheyuseitforyears theresaculturalattitudetowardsmenbeinginterestedinfashion. Itsnotamachobehaviour Experimentation p isnotforeveryone y Inspirationcomesmostlyfromwivesandgirlfriends,inthe mostaffluentpartofthesocietyfrommagazines

Mendonotreallyliketoshopforclothes: clothes itmustbeaquick, quick profitableexperience,withsomeone Instead,theyarereadytospendhoursinspecialtyshops, iftheyare relatedtotheirpassions Somethingischanging,butveryslowly.