Result Update

February 18, 2013

Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Buy | 301 12-15 months 36%

Supreme Infrastructure (SUPINF)

WHATS CHANGED
FY14E 2,265.7 339.9 125.9 75.2

| 221

PRICE TARGET ....................................................................... Changed from | 330 to | 301

FY13E 1,864.7 300.2 105.7 63.2

Key Financials
| Crore Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (|) FY11 918 155.9 76.0 45.4 FY12 1,505.9 243.5 91.8 54.8

EPS (FY13E) ......................................................................... Changed from | 64.2 to | 63.2 EPS (FY14E) ......................................................................... Changed from | 85.2 to | 75.2 RATING ............................................................................................................... Unchanged

Execution continues to remain strong

Supreme Infrastructure (Supreme) continued its strong performance aided by superior execution (topline of | 550.3 crore vs. our estimate of | 503.6 crore) and margins (17.3% vs. our estimates of 16%). It received orders worth | 835 crore in Q3FY13 along with increase of scope of work at the Jaipur Ring Road wherein it will now execute 100% of the EPC work vis--vis 50% earlier. Supreme also indicated that it continues to bid for projects in Middle East and has bought a quarry and crusher plant there. The company expects some order inflow materialisation by H1CY13. Supreme is also looking to reduce the debt at the parent level through securitisation of operational projects in FY14.

Valuation summary
Adjusted P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW RoCE FY11 3.8 5.7 5.4 1.5 27.0 17.8 FY12 3.1 4.8 4.5 1.1 24.7 19.2 FY13E 2.7 4.1 3.9 0.9 22.3 20.2 FY14E 2.3 3.5 3.5 0.7 21.1 21.0

Stock data
Market Capitalization Total Debt (FY12) Cash (FY12) EV 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value FII Holding (%) DII Holding (%) | 370.3 Crore | 748.9 Crore | 68.3 Crore | 1100.9 Crore 360/ 196 | 16.7 Crore | 10 12.3 6.8

Superior execution & margins yet again

Supreme reported a topline of | 550.3 crore (up 34.3% YoY) vs. our estimate of | 503.6 crore, led by superior execution. EBITDA margins at 17.3% were higher than our estimate of 16%. The PAT, consequently, at | 35.9 crore was higher than our estimate of | 33.2 crore.

Robust order book at | 5,444 crore, 3x book to bill

The order book stood at | 5,444 crore (including L1 orders worth ~| 1176 crore), 3x book to bill ratio on a TTM basis. Supreme has bagged orders worth ~| 835 crore in Q3FY13. Additionally, its scope of work also increased in Jaipur Ring Road project wherein it will now execute 100% of the EPC work vis--vis 50% earlier. The company continues to bid for projects in Middle East and has bought a quarry and crusher plant there, Supreme expects some order inflow materialisation by H1CY13.

Price movement
6,400 5,800 5,200 4,600 4,000 3,400 2,800 2,200 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Feb-13

BOT update
On the BOT front, Supreme has commenced construction on Jaipur Ring Road wherein it has received 60% of the land from JDA. Manor Wada Bhiwandi tolling is expected to commence by the end of Q4FY13. On the funding front, Supreme has an equity commitment of ~ | 150 crore over the next two years, the funding avenue for which is expected through internal accrual and securitisation of operational projects. It is also looking to reduce the debt at the parent level through such securitisation.

Analysts name
Deepak Purswani, CFA deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com Bhupendra Tiwary bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com

Attractive valuations at 17.1% CAGR earnings growth; maintain BUY

Though the business environment continues to remain challenging, we continue to like Supreme given its strong revenue growth (~22.7% CAGR during FY12-14E) and earnings growth (~17.1% CAGR during FY12-14E) in the EPC business, superior margins and return ratios along with largely funded BOT projects. We maintain our BUY recommendation with an SOTP based target price of | 301/share.
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance
(| Crore) Q3FY13 Q3FY13E Total Operating Income 550.3 503.6 EBITDA 95.0 80.8 EBITDA Margin (%) 17.3 16.0 Depreciation 9.0 8.1 Interest 30.9 26.2 Reported PAT 35.9 33.2 EPS (|) 21.5 19.8 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Q3FY12 409.9 68.5 16.7 8.7 25.3 25.0 14.9 Q2FY13 347.1 60.7 17.5 7.9 25.4 19.4 11.6 QoQ (Chg %) 58.5 56.4 -24 bps 13.4 21.7 85.1 85.1 YoY (Chg %) 34.3 38.6 54 bps 3.2 22.4 43.6 43.6

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Superior topline & margins leads to higher PAT

Supremes Q3FY13 performance was ahead of our estimates led by superior topline and margins
Supremes Q3FY13 performance was much ahead of our estimates led by superior topline and margins

Supreme reported a topline of | 550.3 crore (up 34.3% YoY) vs. our estimate of | 503.6 crore, on the back of superior execution EBITDA margins at 17.3% were higher than our estimate of 16% The PAT, consequently, at | 35.9 crore was higher than our estimate of | 33.2 crore

Healthy order book at | 5444 crore, 3x book to bill

Supreme has bagged orders worth ~ | 835 crore in Q3FY13. Additionally, its scope of work also increased in the Jaipur Ring Road project wherein it will now execute 100% of the EPC work vis--vis 50% earlier. Consequently, the order book stood at | 5,444 crore, 3x book to bill ratio on a TTM basis.
Supreme has bagged orders worth ~| 835 crore in Q3FY13. Additionally, its scope of work also increased in the Jaipur Ring Road project wherein it will now execute 100% of the EPC work vis--vis 50% earlier

Exhibit 2: Order book strong

4500 3600 (| crore) 2700 1800 900 0 3526 Q2FY12 3772 Q3FY12 3903 Q4FY12 4376 Q1FY13 4439 Q2FY13 5444 Q3FY13 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (x) 2.0

Order book

Order book to bill (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Road segment dominates order book with ~48% share

100 80 60 (%)
The road segment dominates the order book with ~47.6% share in Q3FY13

2.9 48.0 42.2

5.0 43.0

5.9 41.6 42.9

6.8 37.0

6.4 42.8

5.2 40.0

40 20 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Roads Buildings Bridges Power Others 39.0 47.7 49.0 49.4 52.5 50.3 45.2 47.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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Exhibit 4: Order inflow trend

Supreme received net orders worth ~| 835 crore in Q3FY13

1000 800
(| crore)

875.6 617 380 656 619 377

834.6

600 400 200 0 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 5: Total ~32% of orders from internal BOT projects

Total 32% of the order is internally driven mainly by the EPC orders for BOT projects

Q3FY13 Q2FY13 Q1FY13 Q4FY12 Q3FY12 Q2FY12 Q1FY12 10 20 57.8 52.2 53.5 56.4 30

68 70 66 42.2 47.8

32 30 34

40

50 Non BOT (%)

60 BOT

70

80

90

100

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: Government orders make up ~79% of order book

Private 21.0%

Exhibit 7: North India contributes 44% of order book

South India 3% East India 17% West India 36%

Govt 79.0%

North India 44%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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Change in estimates
We have incorporated the 9MFY13 performance into our estimates. Consequently, we have marginally revised our earning estimates. We also build in lower margins in FY14 considering bulk of the orders is now constituted by North India where it is an advantage if quarry may not be possible. Consequently, we cut our FY14 estimates by ~12%.
Exhibit 8: Revision in earning estimates
Particulars Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin PAT EPS Old 1,809.3 289.5 16.0 107.5 64.2 FY13E New 1864.7 300.2 16.1 105.7 63.2 % Change 3.1 3.7 10 bps (1.6) (1.6) Old 2,230.5 356.9 16.0 142.6 85.2 FY14E New 2265.7 339.9 15.0 125.9 75.2 % Change 1.6 (4.8) -100 bps (11.7) (11.7)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 9: Key assumptions

| crore Order inflow Order Backlog Execution - Average (%) FY12 2273 3903 43 FY13E 2500 4538 44 FY14E 2500 4772 49

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Valuation
We continue to maintain our positive stance on the stock given its strong revenue growth (~22.7% CAGR during FY12-14E) and earnings growth (~17.1% CAGR during FY12-14E) in the EPC business, superior margins and return ratios along with largely funded BOT projects. We maintain our BUY recommendation with an SOTP based target price of | 301/share. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 2.3x FY14E adjusted P/E and 0.7x FY14E P/BV multiples.
We have valued the stock on an SOTP basis with a target price of | 301/share

Construction business: We now roll over Supremes construction business valuation to FY14E at | 260/share (3.6x FY14 EV/EBITDA - 40% discount to leading midcap construction companies). On the PE matrix, our EV/EBITDA target multiple implies PE multiple of 3.5x on FY14E earnings. BOT projects: We have been conservative in valuation and, consequently, valued only the operational projects at 1x P/BV at | 41/share.
Exhibit 10: SOTP Valuation
Value (| crore) Value/share (| ) Comment 3.6x FY14 EV/EBITDA implied FY14 adjusted Price to Earnings of 3.5x 1x Price to Book for operational projects FY13 Net debt

Construction Business BOT Project Less: Net Debt

1223 68.1 -787 504

731 41 -470 301

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(| Crore) Net Sales Growth (%) Other Income Total Revenue Purchase & Direct Contract Expenses Employee Expenses (Increase)/Decrease in WIP Administrative Expenses Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA Growth (%) Interest PBDT Depreciation PBT Total Tax PAT Growth (%) EPS FY11 917.9 72.1 5.5 923.4 739.2 27.3 -29.4 24.8 761.9 155.9 73.7 40.8 120.7 24.6 96.0 20.1 76.0 93.8 45.4 FY12 1,505.9 64.1 2.8 1,508.7 1,201.5 36.5 -5.3 29.8 1,262.4 243.5 65.7 91.5 154.7 28.4 126.4 34.6 91.8 20.9 54.8 FY13E 1,864.7 23.8 4.2 1,868.9 1,491.8 44.8 9.3 18.6 1,564.5 300.2 23.9 114.9 189.5 32.7 156.8 51.1 105.7 15.2 63.2 FY14E 2,265.7 21.5 6.3 2,272.1 1,789.9 63.4 6.8 65.7 1,925.9 339.9 23.1 121.6 224.6 36.7 187.9 62.0 125.9 19.1 75.2

Cash flow statement

(| Crore) Profit after Tax Depreciation Cash Flow before working capital changes Net Increase in Current Assets Net Increase in Current Liabilities Net cash flow from operating activities (Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets Other Investments Mobilisation advances from customers Net Cash flow from Investing Activities Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital Inc / (Dec) in Secured Loans Inc / (Dec) in Unsecured Loans Change in Securities Premium Others Net Cash flow from Financing Activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash/ Cash Equivalent Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent FY11 FY12 76.0 91.8 24.6 28.4 100.6 120.2 -277.7 -595.6 89.6 330.1 -87.6 -145.3 -45.2 -51.6 -58.0 -61.9 43.6 208.8 -99.4 -111.5 2.9 0.0 161.8 301.0 -7.4 -6.9 28.6 22.5 -2.9 -2.5 205.0 291.6 18.0 34.8 15.5 33.5 33.5 68.3 FY13E 105.7 32.7 138.4 -228.8 63.4 -27.0 -30.0 -20.0 0.0 -50.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 -2.4 97.6 20.6 68.3 88.9 FY14E 125.9 36.7 162.6 -205.2 70.8 28.2 -30.0 0.0 0.0 -30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.4 -2.4 -4.2 88.9 84.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance Sheet
(| Crore) Liabilities Equity Capital Share Application money pending allotme Preference Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Sources of funds Assets Gross Block Less Acc.Depreciation Net Block Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Cash Unbilled work in progress Total Current Assets Creditors Provisions Mobilisation adv. from customers Net Current Assets Application of funds FY11 16.7 25.0 0.0 240.1 281.8 454.9 8.8 FY12 16.7 0.0 2.5 351.9 371.1 748.9 10.8 FY13E 16.7 0.0 2.5 455.2 474.4 848.9 10.8 FY14E 16.7 0.0 2.5 578.6 597.9 848.9 10.8

Key ratios
FY11 Per share data (|) EPS Cash EPS BV Operating profit per share Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Net Sales PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) Adjusted P/E (x) EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio 45.4 60.1 168.3 93.1 20.0 17.0 10.5 8.3 14.2 112.4 49.6 27.0 17.8 22.7 3.8 5.4 0.9 0.5 1.5 2.9 1.5 2.8 2.3 FY12 54.8 71.8 221.7 145.4 40.8 16.2 8.4 6.1 13.8 120.3 60.2 24.7 19.2 24.2 3.1 4.5 0.7 0.3 1.1 3.1 1.8 2.3 2.0 FY13E 63.2 82.7 283.4 179.3 53.1 16.1 8.4 5.7 16.2 120.5 60.2 22.3 20.2 23.2 2.7 3.9 0.6 0.2 0.9 2.8 1.6 2.4 2.2 FY14E 75.2 97.1 357.1 203.0 50.6 15.0 8.3 5.6 14.6 120.5 60.2 21.1 21.0 23.2 2.3 3.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 2.5 1.3 2.5 2.3

745.4 1,130.8 326.8 69.0 257.8 70.2 378.9 97.4 281.5 132.1

1,334.1 1,457.6 408.9 130.1 278.8 152.1 438.9 166.8 272.1 152.1

47.6 66.6 282.6 496.3 205.0 562.5 33.5 68.3 69.4 74.7 638.1 1,268.5 124.8 248.4 19.9 17.6 83.4 292.3 410.0 710.3 745.4 1,130.8

98.4 82.9 615.4 747.7 649.8 745.1 88.9 84.6 65.4 58.6 1,517.9 1,718.9 307.6 373.7 21.7 26.4 292.3 292.3 896.3 1,026.5 1,334.1 1,457.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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Company Description
Supreme Infrastructure (Supreme) is a Mumbai based mid-sized construction company, which undertakes projects across roads, bridges, railways, power, buildings, irrigation and sewerage segments. Supreme has further entered into the BOT segment where it is currently undertaking nine projects (including three that are operational). One of the differentiating factors for Supreme is backward integration through access to captive quarry and crushing plants, ready mix concrete (RMC) plants, asphalt plants and wet mix plants, which lend comparative advantage in terms of cost of aggregates and, thereby, contribute to higher margins vis--vis its peers. Supreme has also made a strategic investment (51% stake) in the Aurangabad based construction company, Rudranee Infrastructure Ltd to utilise the expertise and experience of the company as it specialises in pipeline and power transmission EPC work.
Exhibit 11: Recommendation History
350 280 210 140 70 0 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Price Aug-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Feb-13

Target Price

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 12: Recent Releases

Date 26-Mar-12 16-May-12 17-Aug-12 27-Aug-12 4-Oct-12 9-Nov-12 6-Dec-12 Event Initiating Coverage Q4FY12 Result Update Q1FY13 Result Update Company Update Q2FY13 Result Preview Q2FY13 Result Update Quick Comment - Q2FY13 CMP 263 268 279 280 300 280 248 Target Price 316 316 330 330 330 330 330 Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Infrastructure)

Sector / Company HCC (HINCON) IVRCL (IVRINF) NCC (NAGCON) Simplex Infra (SIMCON) Supreme Infra (SUPINF) Unity Infra (UNIINF) CMP M Cap (|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) 17 15 Sell 1,025 29 26 Sell 901 41 45 Hold 1,057 165 262 Buy 817 221 301 Buy 370 36 53 Buy 267 EPS (|) FY12 FY13E FY14E -1.9 -2.5 -1.8 0.6 -4.5 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.3 18.0 17.1 23.9 54.8 63.2 75.2 14.0 12.5 10.5 P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) RoE (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E NA NA NA 12.0 13.6 12.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 -15.7 -9.0 -9.4 48.1 NA 44.1 6.6 16.7 7.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 -8.6 0.9 13.0 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.3 7.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.3 10.9 11.5 8.2 5.8 5.6 5.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 7.8 7.1 8.8 3.3 2.9 2.4 4.5 3.9 3.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 24.7 22.3 21.1 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 14.8 11.8 9.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Deepak Purswani CFA, PGDM (FINANCE) Bhupendra Tiwary MBA (FINANCE) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

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