Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Chinas Industrial Production rose 10.4 percent in August French Industrial Production declined by 0.6 percent in July Japans Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 0.4 percent in July European markets traded on a positive note today on the back of favorable economic data from the region. Asian markets also traded in the green and US futures are also trading higher. Japans Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined by 1.8 percent in August as compared to a decline of 12.1 percent in July. French Industrial Production declined by 0.6 percent in July as compared to a decline of 1.4 percent in June. Indian Rupee has gained nearly 6 percent in the last 4 days on the back of measures announced by the RBI governor. In intraday trade, the Rupee gained more than 2 percent and touched a high of 63.88 till 4.45pm IST. Spot gold prices declined 1.1 percent today on the back of strength in the DX and marginal fall in SPDR Gold holdings. However, upbeat global market sentiments prevented sharp decline in prices. In the Indian markets, gold declined by around 1.3 percent and Rupee appreciation led to further losses. Spot silver prices declined by 1.5 percent, taking cues from strength in the DX and decline in gold and base metals. However, sharp downside was capped due to upbeat global market sentiments. On the MCX, silver declined around 1.9 percent due to Rupee appreciation and touched an intraday low of Rs.52856/kg till 4:30 pm IST. The base metals pack traded on a negative note today as Syria accepted Russias proposal to surrender its chemical weapons. Strength in the DX additionally added downside pressure on prices. On the MCX, appreciation in the Rupee also acted as a negative factor. Despite upbeat global market sentiments and fall in inventories by 1 percent today, copper prices remained flat. Inventories on the LME fell by 1 percent to 588,475 tonnes. In the Indian markets, the near month copper contract declined by 0.3 percent on account of Rupee appreciation and the metal hovered at Rs.472.20/kg till 4:30pm IST. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.6 percent on account of strtength in the DX and easing concerns regarding military strike on Syria as the country accepted Russias proposal of surrendering its chemical weapons. MCX crude oil contract declined 0.9 percent due to appreciation in the Rupee and the contract is trading below Rs.7000/bbl. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 10 September 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5738.50 19448.39 14318.72 1978.08 17309.16

5904.85 20012.69 14441.81 1994.06 17373.29

5738.20 19444.66 14296.78 1974.59 17246.13

5896.75 19997.10 14423.36 1994.06 17246.13

3.81 3.77 1.54 0.98 0.51

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 10 September13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.84 1.3253 64.40

81.96 1.3275 64.54

81.73 1.3233 63.88

81.91 1.3244 63.925

0.14 -0.08 -2.02

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 10 September13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec13 MCX Silver Dec13 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sep 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sep13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Sep13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sep13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sep13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1387.09 1377.50 31329.00 23.66 0.237 53955 108.92 113.00 7030 7207.00 472.10 1887.00 119.45 2151 137.60 13935 892.10 1806.00 114.50

1390.66 1377.50 31497.0 23.76 0.237 53955 109.02 113.55 7037 7214.50 473.40 1889.00 120.30 2154 137.70 13935 892.90 1808.00 114.95

1369.59 1377.40 31116.0 23.14 0.2317 52856 108.20 112.61 6953 7150.00 468.50 1873.00 118.85 2129 136.10 13770 883.30 1794.00 113.35

1370.94 1377.40 31133.00 23.30 0.2317 53092 108.87 113.52 6993 7207.00 472.20 1881.25 119.25 2140 136.45 13793 887.50 1805.75 113.95

-1.10 -0.68 -1.29 -1.52 -2.10 -1.89 -0.59 -0.18 -0.89 0.03 -0.25 -0.27 -0.71 -0.80 -1.09 -1.05 -0.98 -0.08 -0.52

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In todays trade, we expect gold and silver prices to trade with a negative bias as sentiments towards precious metals weaken ahead of the FOMC monetary policy review. A stronger Rupee will be additionally negative for precious metals. On the back of expectations of no major military action against Syria, oil prices are likely to witness downside pressure in todays trading session. Also, restart of oil producing facilities in Libya has also reduced supply threats from the country and this factor will be additionally negative for prices. Rupee appreciation will add additional downside pressure on prices. Base metals are expected to trade on a mixed note today as on one hand positive data from China will be supportive but on the other hand Rupee appreciation will cap gains in the Indian markets.

Technical Outook for evening session 10 September 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Dec13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep13 Nymex Crude Oil Oct13 Natural Gas Sep13 LME Copper Copper Nov13 Zinc Sep13 Lead Sep13 Aluminum Sep13 Nickel Sep13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmbtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

30850 1363 52300 22.80 3880 107.7 225 7120 464 117.6 134.3 111.6 872

31000 1369 52750 23 6930 108.2 227 7150 468 118.5 135.5 113.2 880

31165 1372.2 53100 23.3 6994 108.71 230.8 7205 472.4 119.45 136.55 114.1 888.5

31340 1386 53500 23.68 7050 109.4 233 7240 476 120.8 137.8 115 896

31550 1394 53950 24 7100 110 236 7280 479 121.6 138.8 116 903

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y French Industrial Production m/m BOE Credit Conditions Survey JOLTS Job Openings

Japan Japan China China Euro UK US

5:20am 5:20am 11:00am 11:00am 12:15pm 2:00pm 7:30pm

-0.4% 20.3% 10.4% -0.6% 711B -

-0.4% 20.2% 9.9% 0.7% 731B 3.96M

-0.5% 20.1% 9.7% -1.4% 700B 3.94M

Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium