Hazard 102:

Hydro-meteorological Hazards (Part 3) Flood hazard & risk mapping

Project on Enabling Cities in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope with Climate Change (Project Climate Twin Phoenix)

Training on Trainers on DRR/CCA for Local Partners

8 January 2013, Tagaytay City

SUSAN R. ESPINUEVA
HYDRO-METEOROLOGY DIVISION, PAGASA, DOST

Department of Science and Technology Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Indicative Flood Hazard Maps

TC frequency occurrence

Flood & storm prone areas Flood & landslide prone areas

Definitions - HAZARD

Hazard is defined as the intrinsic property, characteristics, or condition of a material or system that has the potential to cause harm. In essence, hazard is a physical situation with a potential for human injury, damage to property, damage to the environment, or a combination thereof. In DRR/CCA, natural hazard pertains to events arising from geologic and/or hydro-meteorological processes that have the potential of causing deaths, injuries and/or damage to property.

Definitions - RISK Risk, is defined as the likelihood of an adverse effect, direct or indirect, on human health and welfare.

Usually expressed as a combination of frequency, or probability, and the consequence of a specific hazardous event, risk may be estimated from the records of such consequences as had been experienced before, given the same or similar attendant conditions.
Sometimes, the expression of risk includes the severity of damage or adverse result that could be in terms of fatality, or injury, or cost of property loss per unit of time. It should be noted that there can be no risk without a hazard.

Definitions - RISK
Mathematically, risk is expressed as:

Risk = consequence frequency/probability of occurrence

Alternately, natural risk can be presented conceptually using the risk triangle developed by Crichton: * Using this risk triangle, risk is mathematically expressed as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability:
Risk = hazard exposure vulnerability
Hazard refers to a single event or series of events which is characterized by a certain magnitude and likelihood of occurrence. Exposure refers to the elements that are subject to the impact of a specific hazard (i.e., elements at risk) such as houses on a floodplain. Vulnerability is the degree to which the exposed elements will suffer a loss from the impact of a hazard.

* Geosciences Australia, Natural Hazards in Australia: Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements

Agencies involved in hazard mapping

Different approaches in flood hazard mapping

1. Past flood approach

2. Hydrologic approach 3. Hydraulic approach 4. Geomorphological approach

Geomorphological approach

Geomorphological
Landform analysis Terrain mapping Historical research/ verification Field mapping and interviews GIS processing

Agencies involved in hazard mapping

HIGH MOD LOW

(Input) Rainfall (Output) Discharge

HIGH MOD LOW
HIGH MOD LOW

Mouth of River

Tides HIGH MOD LOW

WATERSHED SEA

Agencies involved in hazard mapping

PLAN VIEW Watershed (river basin)

CROSS SECTION VIEW Alluvial Deposits (Floodplain)

Worst Case Scenario (Low Susceptibility) Moderate

River

High

Methodology OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS A. Type of Flooding - determined based on geomorphic, hydrological analysis and field interviews: Riverine floods - originating from channel overflow; Coastal floods - orig inating from the sea Stagnation floods - depressions in the absence or insufficient outlets; Sheet floods - originating from concentrated runoff on slopes with or without insufficient rills and gullies; and Flashfloods - high velocity flows confined in steep channels mostly straight and V- shaped; also from underground river networks.

Methodology

Methodology

Drainage analysis and inventory of the target areas.

Google Earth Satellite Image of the target areas.

Methodology

Field validation of tabletop flood hazard analysis

Tabletop flood hazard analysis

Methodology OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS B. Historical Flood Data Does the area experienced flooding: During the passage of Typhoons During the occurrence of heavy rains During high tides and big waves C. Frequency of Floods How frequent does flooding occur? Frequent several times a year or at least once a year Less Frequent - at least once in 5 yrs Seldom- at least once in 10 yrs Very seldom- cannot measure

Methodology OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS D. Depth of Floods High flood hazards - ranging from a few inches to a maximum of 10 feet Moderate flood hazards - ranging from a few inches to 4 feet Low flood hazard- ranging from a few inches to 2 feet Less likely to be flooded unobserved

Methodology
TYPE OF FLOODING HAZARD A. Highly susceptible 1. Morphology - Beach, estuary, marsh, swamp, swales, mudflats, tidal flats, main channels, channel tributaries, lower terraces, paleo-channels, oxbows, lakes, sinkholes, back swamps, gullies, rills. 2. Frequency- Frequent to less frequent 3. Depth - Varying (Maximum of 10 feet and over) B. Moderately susceptible 1. Morphology - Beach ridges, middle terraces, raised sandbars, levees 2. Frequency - Less frequent to seldom 3. Depth - Varying (Maximum of 4 feet )

Methodology
TYPE OF FLOODING HAZARD C. Low susceptible 1. Morphology Foot slopes, hills, ridges 2. Frequency - Seldom 3. Depth - Varying (Maximum of foot)

D. Less Likely to be flooded 1. Morphology - mountain tops, steep slopes 2. Frequency - unobserved 3. Depth unobserved

Methodology
GIS ANALYSIS AND PROCESSING A. Basemap Preparation
The map sheets with1:50 000 scale of the study area, acquired from NAMRIA were scanned and geo- referenced using ArcGIS 9.3ArcMap-ArcInfo.
To eliminate the annotations and produce a basemap with only the topographic details, extraction by mask under the spatial analyst tools was used. The maps were then cropped and mosaiced to fit and produce one single basemap for study area.

Methodology
GIS ANALYSIS AND PROCESSING B. Flood Hazard Maps

Flood Hazard Maps

Flood Hazard Maps using 1:10K base maps (output from the UNDP Ready Project by UNDP/AusAID)

Provinces/Islands with 1:10K FHM

Project AusAID / UNDP Province 1. Antique Municipality/ city San Jose, Hamtic, Sibalom & Belison Project Province 8. Leyte 9. Zambales 10. Ilocos Sur 11. Laguna 12. Surigao del Sur 13. Surigao del Norte 14. Abra 15. Cagayan Municipality/ City Ormoc City Olongapo City & Subic Vigan City Calamba City Tandag & Tago Anaon & Mainit

2. Bohol
3. Rizal

Guindolman, Anda, Candijay & Duero

Angono, Baras, Binangonan, Cardona, Morong, Tanay & Taytay Baguio City and La Trinidad Angeles City Tanza, Gen. Trias, Imus, Dasmarinas, Rosario, Noveleta, Kawit, & Bacoor Iloilo City, Oton, Pavia, Leganes & San Miguel

4. Benguet 5. Pampanga 6. Cavite

16. Isabela
GGGI / CCC 17. Siargao Island

Roxas
San Benito, Del Carmen, Pilar, San Isidro

7. Iloilo

Flood Hazard Maps

Flood Hazard Maps

Flood Hazard Maps

Flood Hazard Maps

B. Flood Hazard Map of Siargao Island

Mosaic Flood Hazard Map of the municipalities of San Benito, Del Carmen, San Isidro, and Pilar of Siargao Island