Enabling the Cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope with Climate Change (Project Climate Twin Phoenix)

Tagaytay City 7-11 January 2013

Climate Change: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Dr. Rosa T. Perez

Outline
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Introduction and Overview Basic concepts and definitions Assessment tools (e.g., characteristics, limitations, procedures/methodologies) Case presentation/studies

Global Warming (1884 to 2011)

Source: NASA

WMO Press Release

No. 966 - 2012: Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Multiple Extremes and High Temperatures

GENEVA/DOHA, 28 November 2012 (WMO) The years 20012011 were all among the warmest on record, and,
according to the World Meteorological Organization, the first ten months indicate that 2012 will most likely be no exception despite the cooling influence of La Nia early in the year. WMOs provisional annual statement on the state of the global climate also highlighted the unprecedented melt of the Arctic sea ice and multiple weather and climate extremes which affected many parts of the world. It was released today to inform negotiators at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Doha, Qatar.

January-October 2012 has been the ninth warmest

such period since records began in 1850. The global land and ocean surface temperature for the period was about 0.45C (0.81F) above the corresponding 19611990 average of 14.2C, according to the statement.
Source: http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/index_en.html

WARMER WORLD precipitation concentrated into more intense events

longer periods of little precipitation in between Intense, heavy downpours interspersed with longer relatively dry periods

Modelling studies: future tropical cyclones could become more severe, with greater wind speeds, more intense precipitation

Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

Potential Impacts in Key sectors in SE Asia

Source: ADB,2009

Linkages: Anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and responses to climate change

2

3
4 5 Source: IPCC (AR4 SYR), 2007

Actions to address Climate Change

IPCC-TAR, 2001

Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Mitigation

Vulnerability: the combined measure of threats to a particular system. the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (Mc Carthy et al., 2001).

Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Mitigation

Adaptation:
the ability of a system to adjust to climate change in order to reduce its vulnerability, and enhance the resilience to observed and anticipated impacts of climate change. 'adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment. Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities'.

Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Mitigation

Adaptation occurs in physical, ecological, and human systems. It involves the following. Changes in social and environmental processes Perceptions of climate risk Practices and functions to reduce risk Exploration of new opportunities to cope with the changed environment

Mitigation: Mitigation refers to any strategy or action taken to remove the GHGs released into the atmosphere, or to reduce their amount.

Concepts and Frameworks

A VULNERABILITY Framework

A Burning Example

Sensitivity
Fair skinned Deeper skin tones

Exposure
Strength of the suns rays: f (latitude, season and weather conditions) Number of hours under the sun

Adaptive capacity
Protective clothing Sunscreen Tanning

pennmedicine.org

Vulnerability as defined by IPCC

A function of sensitivity of a particular system to climate changes, its exposure to those changes and its capacity to adapt to those changes

(IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2001; McCarthy and Others, 2001)

Components of Vulnerability

Exposure: nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations Sensitivity: degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise). Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. IPCC AR4, TAR WG2

Exposure
Essentially answer the question of who or what is at risk to climate change (i.e., what is exposed to climate change) and the change in climate. So, it includes: The population (e.g., people, species) that can be affected by climate change Settlements and infrastructure that can be affected by climate change Natural resources that can be affected by climate change The nature of climate change itself ( e.g., change in sea level, temperature, extreme events).

Impact (1)

Typically means the effect of climate change. For biophysical systems it can be change in productivity, quality, or population numbers or range. For societal systems, impact can be measured as change in value (e.g., gain or loss of income) or in morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being (Parry and Carter, 1998).

Impact (2)
The effects may be direct or indirect: Direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) Indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise) (McCarthy et al., 2001, p. 6).

Sensitivity

Sensitivity is defined by the IPCC as the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. Climate-related stimuli encompass all of the elements of climate change, including mean climate characteristics, climate variability, and the frequency and magnitude of extremes.

Examples of sensitivities: human health

Severely degraded or collapsed health care system Poor and declining immunity, nutritional and health status of large portion of population High poverty rates that limit access to health care - Lack of disease surveillance, vector control and prevention programs Large portion of population lose reliable access to potable water and sanitation Land use changes, including new reservoirs that increase habitat for disease vectors Limited access to health care Lacking disease surveillance, vector control and disease prevention Malnutrition Drug resistance

V = f (E, S, AC)

Used in MDG-F and Sectoral VA Mainstreaming Guidelines (Cabrido et al.)

Changes in mean climate, variability, extreme events and sea level rise

Effects on livelihoods

Impact on vulnerability

Increased temperature and changes in precipitation reduces agricultural and natural resources Changes in precipitation runoff and variability leads to greater water stress Increased incidence or intensity of climate related extremes such as water stress Temperature, water and vegetation changes resulting in increasing prevalence of disease

Direct impacts of climatic shocks and stresses such as livelihood assets, health, food and water security

Increased pressure on Coping strategies and social protection measures Reduced ability to recover due to increased frequency of climatic shocks or increased intensity of climatic stresses

Increased vulnerability due to: Lower capacity to prepare; Lower capacity to cope; and Lower capacity to recover from climatic and nonclimatic shocks and stresses

Source: DFID,2004

UN Disaster Risk = f (HEV)

Risk likelihood of harm, loss, disaster

Hazard
Exposure Vulnerability

physical impact of disturbance

elements affected by hazard
lack of capacity of community to prepare, absorb, recover from hazard

Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity

Reconciling Frameworks
IPCC Vulnerability

UN Risk

Exposure

Hazard Exposure Vulnerability (Inherent Vulnerability) Adaptive Capacity

disaster mitigation

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity
climate change adaptation climate change mitigation

NOTE: Not a strict correspondence but a rough mapping to facilitate linking of understanding of frameworks.

1. Specification of mitigation strategies

Major decision contexts for Vulnerability Assessments

2. Identification of who or what are vulnerable

3. Recommendation of adaptation measures

Why do we conduct a Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Meant to serve the needs of the relevant stakeholders, rather than the researcher or analyst
Designed to provide information useful to stakeholders to understand vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options

Why do we conduct a Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Use models or other tools (e.g. GIS maps) only as means of providing useful information to stakeholders
Begin by identifying the questions stakeholders would like to have a vulnerability and adaptation assessment answer

Issues to Consider When Beginning a Vulnerability Assessment

General Process and Scope Budget and Political Support

Technical -Time Frame - Approaches

Stakeholders

General Process and Scope (1)

How much time is available for the assessment? On which planning areas do you want to focus the assessment? (What is of concern?)
Is

it food production, water supply, health? Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms, e.g., extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate for people, e.g., drought, flood, malnutrition.

Who will perform the assessment?

General Process and Scope (2)

Do you have the technical capacity to perform it inhouse? If outsourcing the assessment, what is the procedure that must be followed for hiring a contractor? What questions do you want the assessment to answer? Which specific decisions do you want the assessment to support?

Budget and Political Support

What resources are available?
What is your budget for the assessment? How big a staff is available? Can consultants be used? What expertise is available either on staff or through consulting?

Who will manage the assessment process and budget? How much time is available? Do you have political support for the assessment?

Technical

Will any model(s) be developed for the assessment? Will the local government be able to operate the model for future scenario analysis? What type of scenarios does the community want to model? (Best case? Worst case? Middle-of-the-road?) Who may be affected? How far into the future is of concern? For what purpose is the assessment to be used?
Raising awareness (education)? Policy making?

What kind of output is needed?

Approaches to Assessment

The approach chosen, i.e., the framework and the application of specific models or other tools, should best answer the questions posed by the stakeholders within the resource and time constraints
The choice of approach or models should be based in part on which ones best answer the questions being asked and can be used within available constraints.

Time Frame (1)

The time frame being examined is a very important matter. If there is more interest in understanding impacts of climate change, then the analysis ought to look over many decades, perhaps out to 2100

Time Frame (2)

If there is more interest in current vulnerability or adaptation strategies, then the analysis should focus on the next few decades up to about 2050.
The near future could be defined as 2020 and the far future as 2050. This is generally because most policy makers would have difficulty planning for more than a few decades and some might even have difficulty planning for a few decades into the future.

Stakeholder Consultation

Stakeholders should be involved throughout the process. In particular, they should be involved in determining what will be examined, what adaptations should be considered, and in evaluating results. For some sets of stakeholders, it may not be important who does the analysis, as long as the stakeholders trust that it is being done well.

Stakeholder Consultation

Other stakeholders may wish to take an active role in conducting the analysis or have people they trust (e.g., have worked with previously) conduct the research. Either ways, it is important to keep stakeholders involved, at least by keeping them informed about progress and interim results.

Stakeholders Analysis

Vulnerability assessment

(1)

A vulnerability assessment is the process of identifying, quantifying, and prioritizing (or ranking) the vulnerabilities in a system. Examples of systems for which vulnerability assessments are performed include, but are not limited to, information technology systems, energy supply systems, water supply systems, transportation systems, and communication systems.

Vulnerability assessment

(2)

Such assessments may be conducted on behalf of a range of different organizations, from small businesses up to large regional infrastructures. Vulnerability from the perspective of disaster management means assessing the threats from potential hazards to the population and to infrastructure. It may be conducted in the political, social, economic or environmental fields.

Evolution of CC Vulnerability Assessments

FROM
Linear Non-adaptive to perfectly adaptive Simplistic to sophisticated

TO
More complex chains of analysis Realistically adaptive agents Pluralistic consideration of development pathways

Strictly quantitative
Purely science-driven

Quantitative and qualitative analyses Policy-driven assessments

Those that dictate users Those that involve those users in the actual assessments

Why the shift?

1. Need to address cross cutting issues (e.g. sustainable development, equity and scientific uncertainties) 2. Changes in climate variability and extremes as determinants of future impacts and vulnerabilities 3. Interactions of climate change with other stresses on environment and society 4. Need for adaptation measures to lessen the risk of damage from future climate change and current climate variability

Linkages: Anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and responses to climate change

2

3
4 5

Fussel and Klein, 2006

Fussel and Klein, 2006

Fussel and Klein, 2006

Fussel and Klein, 2006

Figure 2-2 Conceptual framework for climate change impacts, vulnerability, disaster risks and adaptation options (source: EEA, 2010a; ETCACC, 2010b).

Determinants of Vulnerability
SYSTEM
A human environment system Geographic region Economic sector Natural system Human health and life Existence and cultural identity Biodiversity and ecosystem services Income and livelihood External climate change, floods Internal unsustainable farming practices

ATTRIBUTE OF CONCERN

HAZARD

TIME SCALE

Current
Future

Information on vulnerability, exposure, and changing climate extremes and climate hazards can together inform adaptation and disaster risk management

improved forecasting for warning systems reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

poverty reduction better education and awareness sustainable development

IPCC-SREX, 2012

Asset relocation Weather/climate -proofing assets Early warning systems

Approaches

Sectoral Multi sectoral approach Cross sectoral (integrated)

Sectoral Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Analysis on how a specific sector can be affected by climate change. Sectoral adaptation measures aim at actions for individual sectors that could be affected by climate change. For example, in agriculture, reduced rainfall and higher evaporation rates would call for new means of irrigation practices. Such a change would require a national policy framework which integrates traditional coping mechanisms along with new practices, and emphasizes on the importance of including climate change as a long term consideration while formulating policies.

Multi sectoral approach

This approach aims at actions that draw from various sectors. It is like looking at a particular problem through different lenses. It cuts across various sectors, for example, integrated water resources management (IWRM), river basins or coastal zones. Linking adaptation to climate change, with management options identified in various conventions, could serve as a multi-sectoral approach.

Cross sectoral
This is an integrated measure which looks at the objective in a very holistic manner. For example, science, research and development, and technological innovations such as the development of drought-resistant crop varieties, or new technologies to combat saltwater intrusion.

Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change

Determine objectives and scope Identify audience, user requirements, and needed products Engage key internal and external stakeholders Establish and agree on goals and objectives Identify suitable assessment targets Determine appropriate spatial and temporal scales Select assessment approach based on targets, user needs, and available resources Review existing literature on assessment targets and climate impacts Reach out to subject experts on target species or systems Obtain or develop climatic projections, focusing on ecologically relevant variables and suitable spatial and temporal scales Obtain or develop ecological response projections

Gather relevant data and expertise

Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change

Assess components of vulnerability Evaluate climate sensitivity of assessment targets Determine likely exposure of targets to climatic/ecological change Consider adaptive capacity of targets that can moderate potential impact Estimate overall vulnerability of targets Document level of confidence or uncertainty in assessments

Apply Explore why specific targets are vulnerable to inform possible assessment in adaptation responses adaptation Consider how targets might fare under various management and planning climatic scenarios Share assessment results with stakeholders and decision-makers Use results to advance development of adaptation strategies and plans

Sectoral Vulnerabilities

Agriculture and Food Security Watershed and Forestry Coastal Sector Human Health
Source: SNC,2010

Agriculture and Food Security

Gross Value Added (GVA) in Agriculture
50000 45000

PHILIPPINES
5.00
Palay Corn Coconut Sugarcane

GVA ( in Million Pesos)

40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

YIELD (MT/Ha)

4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

YEAR
IRRIGATED RAINFED

YEAR

Historical value added (GVA*) in agriculture (palay, corn, coconut and sugarcane (1967-2008)

Annual yields (mt/ha) from rainfed and irrigated rice systems in the Philippines (1970-2008)
Source: BAS,

GVA is defined as the difference between gross output and the immediate inputs, with gross outputs of a production unit during a given period

Projected Rice Yield

Source: IRRI, 2009

Forestry and Watershed

Vulnerability = f(sensitivity due to topography, slopes, elevation) Vulnerability to climate risks = f(degree of physical exposure , adaptive capacity) Adaptive capacity = f( development factor/population density)

Coastal Resources Sector

Coastal flooding /storm surge

Coral bleaching

Ocean Acidification

Mangrove destruction

Impacts of Climate Change

Extreme weather/ events disasters Increased flooding Freshwater shortage Saltwater intrusion Sea level rise Ocean acidification

Coastal and Marine resources

affect

Peoples security, livelihood and way of life

Challenges to SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Source: PEMSEA,2010

Coastal Capacities (Lack of)

Extreme and Chronic Poverty

Geographically isolated and disadvantaged- disconnectedness, high cost of transport, lack of access to markets Resource-poor

80% of rice is imported (except for West Coast) No access to energy grid (thus, expensive ,diesel-fired generators) for small islands Depleted fishing grounds, competition from commercial intrusions

Low economic density; small and diffused markets; limited internal trade
Source: Salceda, 2010)

Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Land Loss due to 1 m SLR (beyond 2050) CGSD, NAMRIA (1992) 129,114 ha Greenpeace (2005) 138,000 ha Manila Observatory (2009) 89,800 ha

Health Sector

Leptospirosis is positively associated with the volume of rainfall (r = .515, p <.01)*. The number of leptospirosis cases is high when the volume of rainfall is high.

Malaria is positively associated with mean temperature (r = .364, p <.01)*. The number of malaria cases is high when the mean temperature is high.

2020

2050

Leptospirosis and climate change projections

Malaria and Climate change projections 2020 and 2050

Dengue and climate change projections

indicates that a one-meter rise in sea level is projected to affect 64 out of 81 provinces, covering at least 703 out of 1,610 municipalities, and inundating almost 700 million square meters of land. The red mark indicates provinces that are at threat.

Adaptation & Food Security

Private - Alter crop species and varieties - Alter livestock species and breeds - Alter timing of planting and harvest - Multiple cropping season - Rehabilitation of on-farm structures - Change land use Public - Plant and animal breeding - Public awareness and extension - Insurance schemes and conditional cash tranfers - Modernization of irrigation systems

Adaptation

It is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC, TAR: Smit et al., 2001, p. 881). Includes observed as well as anticipated future changes in climate. Adaptation can be happening in response to perceived change in climate or in anticipation of future change in climate.

Autonomous adaptation is considered to be adaptations made by affected entities, such as individuals, societies or nature, in response to observed or perceived changes in climate. Anticipatory or proactive adaptation is made to reduce risk from future changes in climate.

Adaptation & Food Security

Structural Measures: Drought and saline resistant crops, Efficient irrigation techniques, Water conservation technologies, Improved farming systems/practices Non-structural measures: Strengthen risk and vulnerability assessment, Weather data collection and forecasts, Early warning systems, Effective policy coordination and institutional arrangements.

There are strategies that can help manage disaster risk now and also help improve peoples livelihoods and well-being

The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term

Application to CLUP (Multi-sectoral)

Cross sectoral

This is an integrated measure which looks at the objective in a very holistic manner. For example, science, research and development, and technological innovations such as the development of drought-resistant crop varieties, or new technologies to combat saltwater intrusion. A good example is the ecosystem based or EcoTown or ridge to reef approaches

Integrated or cross-sectoral

A Continuum of Climate Change Adaptation Measures

Adaptation focus
Benefit in the absence of CC
Example Vulnerability reduction Response to impacts

100%
Teaching officials to collect climate data and integrate in their planning decisions Coastal zone protection with vegetative buffers like mangroves

0%
Constructing shelters in response to frequent Typhoons

Providing farmers drought tolerant varieties & training for water saving methods

Type

Non-structural

Structural

Thank you!