En

Causes, impact and challenges to Angola and Subsahara Africa society

Natural Disaster:

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de Estudos sobre Angola

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NATURAL(DISASTERS:(Causes,(impact(and(challenges(to(Angolan(and(Subsahara(Africa( society

HERLANDER(MATA+LIMA(*
*"Doctor"of"Science"in"Engineering,"MSc"in"Environmental"Policy"and"Management,"Post9 Graduate"in"Hydraulics"and"Water"Resources"Engineering"and"Degree"in"Water"Resources." Since"2002"dedicated"to"higher"education"and"research"university,"being"a"member"of"the" editorial"board"of"scientiDic"journals"including"most"importantly"(i)"Journal"of"Civil" Engineering"and"Construction"Technology"and"(ii)"REM"9"Revista"Escola"de"Minas."E9mail:" contact@aopi.org"or"hmatalima@gmail.com

1.(The(Framework A" major" concern" emerging" from" climate" change" relates" to" increased" frequency" and" " A" major" concern" emerging" from" climate" change" relates" to" i n c r e a s e d" f r e q u e n c y" a n d" severity"of"natural"disasters Natural" disasters" are" caused" by" phenomena" of" origin" hydrological," meteorological," climatological," geophysical" or" biological" that" can" destroy" the" natural" and" built" environment" of" the" affected"regions" triggering" damage"and"human"casualties" to" a"level" that"exceeds"the"capacity"of"the"local"community"to"self9recover,"thus"requiring"the"use"of" Natural"disasters"are"caused"by" p h e n o m e n a" o f" o r i g i n" hydrological," meteorological," climatological," geophysical" or" biological foreign" aid." The"World" Bank" &" United"Nation"stress" in"their" joint" report," published" in" 2010"(https://www.gfdrr.org/nhud9home;"access:"June"20,"2013),"that" disasters" expose" the"cumulative"effects"of"decisions"(individual"and"collective")"previously"made"related"to" land" use" planning" (i.e.," unregulated" expansion"of" urban" areas" to" risk" areas" as" seen" in" Luanda"9"see"Figure"1)," construction"techniques,"installation"of"sanitation"facilities,"poor" investment"in"educational"programs,"combating"poverty,"social"integration,"among"other" causes," combined" with"the"occurrence"of" natural"events" of"high"intensity"(i.e."landslide" and"Dlood,"storm," severe"drought),"triggering" a" sequence"of" negative"environmental"and" socioeconomic" impacts."Such"impacts" have"a"high"degree"of" severity"with"signiDicant" to" property" damage" to" which" are" often" lost" livelihoods" and" lives" in" the" affected" communities," as" well" as" infectious" diseases" due" to" the" deterioration" of" sanitary" conditions." On" infectious" diseases" is" noted" that" the" community" affected" by" infectious" agents" are" exposed" during" the" early" stages" of" post9disaster," such" as" rescue" and" concentration"in"temporary"camps.
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severity" of" natural" disasters," and" the" situation" of" the" poorest" and" developing" regions" require" greater" urgency" with" regard" to" adaptation" measures" to" minimize" the" negative" consequences"in"environmental"and"socio9economic"systems.

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(b)

(c)

Figure 1 - Illustration of some critical situations concerning the occupation of space in Luanda: (a) location of highlighting Angola Luanda, (b) and (c) dense urban sprawl, disorganized and without sanitation facilities and adequate transport. Source of images: Google Maps.

C o m m u n i t y" a f f e c t e d" b y" infectious" agents" are" exposed" during"the"early" stages" of"post9 disaster," such" as" rescue" and" concentration" in" temporary" camps.

Therefore," disasters" are" responsible" for" a" string" of" negative" environmental" and" socioeconomic" impacts" that" causes" imbalances" in" the" environmental," economic" and" social" sustainability." Many" studies" have" shown" in" the" last" two" decades," consistent" statements"and"predictions"of"increased"frequency"of"occurrence"and"intensity"of"natural" disasters" (eg,"hurricane," Dlood," drought" and"forest" Dire" associated," earthquake," tornado," etc.),"especially" related"to" climatic" factors," as" well"as" the"relationship" between"natural" disasters"and"macroeconomic"indicators"of"countries. This"issue"is"particularly"important"in""the"report"presented"by"Intergovernmental"Panel" on" Climate" Change" 9" IPCC," published" in" 2007" (http://www.ipcc.ch/;" access:" June" 20," 2013),"states"that"one"of"the"consequences"of"global"warming"is"increasing"the"frequency" and"intensity"of"extreme"weather"events"(especially"in"tropical"regions)"which"combined" with"geophysical"made"disasters"(i.e,"earthquake,"tsunami)"embody"a"strong"threat"to"the" developing"countries,"to"the"extent"that"have"low"resilience"to"disasters. Natural" disasters," even" when" classiDied" as" small" or" moderate," are" responsible" for" negative" environmental" and"socioeconomic" impacts," particularly" in" developing"regions" due" to" the"lack" of" activity" of" preventive" planning," lack" of"resources" for" the" creation"of" basic" infrastructure"and"low"resilience,"inherent"low"level"of"social"capital"(social"capital" results" from" structural" features" of" social" organization" that" favour" the" formation" of" networks," norms," value" systems," trusts" and" participatory" engagement" that" facilitate" coordination"and"cooperation"for"the"common"beneDit)"that"contributes"to"the"extension" of"the"adverse"effects"on"the"environment"and"society."The"lack"of"action"from"authorities" contributes" to" an" increased" spatial" dispersion" of" environmental" and" socio9economic" impacts"and"worsening"degradation"of"economic" activity"(agriculture,"trade,"tourism),"as" well"as"increased"social"vulnerability.

T h e r e f o r e ," d i s a s t e r s" a r e" responsible" for" a" string" of" negative" environmental" and" socioeconomic" impacts" that" causes" imbalances" in" the" environmental," economic" and" social"sustainability

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The"crucial"importance"of"social"capital"arises"from"the"fact" of"the"causes" that"contribute" to" the" occurrence" of" natural"disasters" in" poor" or" developing" countries" are" linked" to" a" historical"development"which"has"always"prevailed"conditions"(economic,"social,"political" and"educational)"that"embody"unfavourable"factors"of"vulnerability"to"natural"disasters. Natural"disasters"are"not"limited"to" natural"causes,"as"both"the"causes"and"the"effects"are" related"to" demophoric" growth"(population"growth" and"the" production9consumption"in" the"technological"context)"socioeconomic"inherent" in"the"development" of"contemporary" societies." Therefore,"among" the" factors" that" have"aggravated"the" disasters"highlight" the" absence" of" an" enabling" environment" for" social" inclusion," economic" development," the" appropriate" use" of" resources," the" development" of" infrastructure" (i.e." sanitation" and" Natural" disasters," even" when" classiDied"as"small"or" moderate," are" responsible" for" negative" e n v i r o n m e n t a l" socioeconomic"impacts a n d" transportation)"and"ecological"and""environmental"protection. The" description" presented" here" aims" to" exhort" urgent" need" to" design" development" programs" and" implement" action" plans" for" disaster" prevention" through" a" systemic" approach" that" integrates" environmental," social" and" economic" (including" technology)" sustainability. (2.(Natural(disasters:(concept,(classiLication,(distribution(and(paradigms. Natural"disasters" can"be"of"hydrological," meteorological," climatological,"geophysical"and" biological." However," this" study" Focuses" on" the" two" types" of" sources" disasters" more" Natural" disasters" are" not" limited" to" natural" causes," as" both"the" causes" and"the"effects" are" related" to" demophoric" growth" frequent" and"troubling"in"the"context" of"sub9Saharan"Africa," Namely:""(i)"hydrology"(the" case" of" Dloods" in" northern" Angola)" and" (ii)" climatological" (the" case" of" Droughts" in" southern" Angola)." The" Latter" assumes" the" proportions" of" particular" concern" in" sub9 Saharan"Africa"(eg"drought"has"contributed"to"the"problem"of"hunger"due"in"particular"to" water" deDicit" and" depletion" of" agricultural" land)" and"it" is" noteworthy" that" Angola" has" undergone"signiDicant"changes"in"the"type"of"covered"plant"during"past"periods"of"climate" change" globally" recognized," and" the" savannah" vegetation"became" dominant" in" the" last" 2000"years"(www.clim9past.net/4/107/2008/,"access:"June"29,"2013). The" current" climate" of" Angola" varies" permanently" from" wet" in"the" Congo" basin" in" the" north"to"the"dry"in"the"south."

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Figure"2"illustrates"the"evolution"scenarios"for" climate"and"disaster"risk" for"the"whole" of"sub9Saharan"African"countries.

Natural" disasters" can" be" of" hydrological," meteorological," climatological," geophysical" and" biological."
(a) Forecast rainfall variation in Africa between b) Estimation of temperature change in Africa from 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 (Source: IPCC, 2007) 1980 to 1999 and from 2080 to 2099 (source: IPCC, 20071)

A n g o l a" h a s" u n d e r g o n e" signiDicant" changes" in" the" type" of" covered" plant" during" past" periods" of" climate" change" globally" recognized," and" the" savannah" vegetation" became" dominant"in"the"last"2000"years

(c) Risk of drought (source: World Bank). SPI (d) Agglomerated urban and potential risk to
means a higher probability of high rainfall deficit natural disasters: in 2025 (source: modified United Nations)

Figure 2 - Information on the susceptibility to natural disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa The" plan"to" combat" the" impacts" of"natural" disasters" should"focus" on"the"four" (4)" paradigms" of" disaster:" Hazard9Risk9Vulnerability9Resilience" whose" description"is" presented"in"Table"1"showing"those"in"which," under" the"plans," which"have"be"made"an"effort"reduction"( )"and"increase"( ).

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Table"1"9"Description"of"the"paradigms"of"natural"disaster Paradigms Hazard ( ) Risk ( ) Vulnerability ( )

Is the set of conditions and processes resulting from physical, social, economic and environmental factors, which increases the susceptibility of a community (at risk) to the impact of hazards. Vulnerability refers to the community's capacity to anticipate, cope, resist and recover from the impacts of natural disasters and consists of a variety of factors that determine the degree of exposure of people and property to risk. Resilience is defined as the ability of a community to withstand and recover from adversity both short and long term. However, the definition of GIBBS (2009, p. 324) (see http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2008.08.001) seem more adjusted to reality in that regard that resilience is a simple attribute related to the level of disturbance that a system can absorb without losing their capacity and the degree that the system has to be reorganized, and the resilience to be considered only as one of the factors that influence the 'adaptability' (adaptive capacity) system. Note: those interested in reading more about the paradigms of disaster can refer, for example, the texts published in Territorium: <http://www.uc.pt/fluc/nicif/riscos/Territorium/numeros_publicados>.

Description
The probability of a potentially damaging natural phenomenon occurs in a particular place and at a specified time. Corresponds to the combination of the probability of occurrence of a natural event and its severity (negative consequences) and is often expressed as the result of hazard with consequences for humans.

The" current" climate" of" Angola" varies"permanently"from"wet"in" the"Congo" basin"in"the" north"to" the"dry"in"the"south.

Resilience ( )

3.(Environmental(and(socioeconomic(challenges(of(disaster

It is urgently adopting adaptation

measures to reduce the exposure of communities, especially the poorest One"of" the"key"steps" to"deDine"strategies" to"mitigate"natural"disasters"and"the"extension" of" their" impacts"is" to" identify" environmental"and"socioeconomic"factors" that"contribute" to:

(i) Reducing vulnerability - is urgently adopting adaptation measures to reduce the

exposure of communities, especially the poorest (see Figure 2), the risk. In this context, it is imperative to identify hazards and then develop a plan for managing the risk, of course, should take into account the peculiarities of the region to the extent that in Angola shows strong regional differences. Such asymmetries are manifested both in biophysical (i.e geomorphology, climate, water availability, etc..) And in terms of socio-demographic (i.e. family income, education, etc..);

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(i) Increased resilience - it is necessary to create conditions, especially socio-economic

(i.e. raise levels of education, access to information, health, employment, etc.), to improve the degree of perceived risk for the communities, increase social capacity organization around common goals, as well as facilitate the social inclusion of vulnerable groups. The improvement of the mentioned aspects lead to increased capital, which as we know, is key to creating a socio-economic structure and organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities north and south of Angola and other African countries. To" meet"the"challenges" posed"by"hydrological" disasters"it" is" vital" "to"strictly" work"on" spatial"and"environmental"planning"as"a"condition"sine"qua"non"to"reconcile"the"natural" It is necessary to create conditions, especially socioeconomic , to improve the degree of perceived risk for the communities, increase social capacity organization around common goals, as well as facilitate the social inclusion of vulnerable groups.
a) Floldings in Luanda (b) Erosion in the coastal zone (c) Residues scattered on the ground

and"built"environments"through"land"use"and"biophysical"space"that"prevents"excessive" sealing" soil," population" exposure" to" risk," for" example," Dlood" and"landslide" due" to" the" occupation" of" Dloodplains," coastal" Dlooding," and" other" areas" of" high" susceptibility" to" erosion"(see"Figure"3).

Figure 3 - Examples of gaps in planning and sanitation facilities in the city of Luanda Natural" disasters" are" very" correlated" with" coastal" areas" with"potential"for"growth. (source: Google Maps) It" is" necessary" to"give"due"importance"to" the"relationship"of"interdependence"existing" between" the"protection" and" conservation" of" biophysical" factors" (eg" soil," water," Dlora" and" fauna)" and" socio9economic" development." In" this" regard," it" is" noteworthy" that" natural" disasters" are" very" correlated" with" coastal" areas" that" currently" (and" have" potential" for" future" growth)" correspond" to" a" factor" of" unquestionable" competitive" advantage"for"summer"tourism"in"the"developing"countries"of"West"Africa". Among"the"anthropogenic"factors"(ie"changes"in"the"environment"caused"by"man)"that" contribute"to"the"deterioration"of"natural"disasters"highlight"the"following:

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(i) Road network - usually aggravate the impacts of flash floods and landslides
due to poor drainage system and longitudinal. When the roads are destroyed,

(ii) Construction dense bed in full and in coastal areas - increases people's
vulnerability to flooding and / or seasonal increase sea level making it an event, a situation of good planning and land use planning, would be only flood or progression of the sea, a disaster with high damage and possible loss of life. These facts become more worrisome because more than half of Angola's population lives in urban areas and coastal zone continually increasing the density of construction, traffic chaos and inherently greater impacts and difficulties of evacuation in case of disaster;

(iii)Inadequate sanitation infrastructure - contribute to dispersal of pathogens

It" is" necessary" to" give" due" importance" to" the" relationship" of" interdependence" existing" between" the" protection" and" conservation" of" biophysical" factors The" preceding" paragraphs" show" that" natural" disasters" can" not" be" classiDied" as" situations" that" come" exclusively" from" natural" forces" as" a" consequences" of" the" development"model"adopted"by"the"authorities" ("Angolan")"assumes"an"important"role" in"the"occurrence"of"disasters"since"the"vulnerability"is"the"determinant" of"the"severity" Natural" disasters" can" not" be" classiDied" as" situations" that" come" exclusively" from" natural" forces"as" a" consequences" of" the" development"model"adopted"by" the"authorities of"impacts"socioeconomic". The"socio9economic"impacts"associated"with"disasters"have"shown"an"increasing"trend" due" to" direct" effects" on" vulnerable" communities" that" requires" attention" and" deep" analysis" on"the" part" of" policymakers," educational"and"research" institutions" and" civil" society"in"general,"since"everyone"must"participate" in"Dinding"solutions" to"mitigate"the" impacts."The" complexity"and"scope"of" the" problem" about" natural"disasters" requires"a" transnational"reDlection"and"analysis","involving"several"countries"in"sub9Saharan"Africa" ("at"least"those"that"are"embedded"in"a"common"river"basin")","because"natural"disasters" can"trigger"signiDicant" damage"("environmental"and"socioeconomic")"that" "for" obvious" reasons" related" to" the" geographical" location" of" the" countries" and" the" relations" of" economic"dependence"9"spread"beyond"the"site"of"the"disaster".Finally,"it"is"stated"that"9" for" natural" disasters" 9" are" major" challenges" facing" Angola" and" not" to" take" such" challenges" today" may" contribute" to" the" aggravation" of" poverty" and" the" consequent" vulnerability"of"communities"in"different"regions"from"north"to"south". 4(.(Final(Consideration.( causing infectious diseases that proliferate on the occurrence of natural disasters, whether of small or medium size (see Figure 3c).

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."It"is"known"that"the"developing"countries"are"more"susceptible"to"natural"disasters" as" a" result" of" high"vulnerability" and" low" resilience." The" joint" report" of" the" World" Bank"and"the"United"Nations","published"in"2010"titled"""Natural"Hazards","Unnatural" Disasters":"The"Economics"of"Effective"Prevention"","points"out"that"economic"growth" in"underdeveloped"regions"hardly"occurs"after"natural"disasters","and"the"intensity"of" negative" effect"depends" on"the"structure"of"the"economy."Therefore," countries" with" weak"structure"and" poorly" diversiDied"economic" ("i.e."Angola"has" an"economy"very" vulnerable" to" disruptions" in" oil" price")" and," of" course" ," with" limited" integration"in" Therefore,"countries" with" weak" structure"and"poorly"diversiDied" economic" "and," of"course" ," with" l i m i t e d" i n t e g r a t i o n" i n" international" networks" of" relationships" ," as" well" as" the" difDiculty"of"gathering"resources" " are" adequate" to" face" emerging" problems"ofrom"disasters international"networks"of"relationships"("i.e."trade"in"goods","knowledge,"etc.)"exhibit" weak" social" capital," as" well" as" the" difDiculty" of" gathering" resources" (" i.e." human," technological" and" economic" )" are" adequate" to" face" emerging" problems" from" disasters".

Angola'Open'Policy'Ini0a0ve'|'AOPI 29'Lees'Lane,'Southoe,' England PE19'5YG,'UK Everyone" must" participate" in" Dinding"solutions"to"mitigate"the" impacts. 27'Amilcar'Cabral Ingombotas 'Provincia'de'Luanda' Republica'de'Angola'

Email:'contac@aopi.org www.aopi.org F:'+44(0)'208'1449'409(UK) M:'+244'933'056'023(Angola)

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