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Background Brief Vietnam: Nguyen Thien Nhan to Chair Vietnam Fatherland Front Carlyle A. Thayer September 9, 2013

[client name deleted] We are preparing a report about the significance and the implications of the appointment of Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan as the president of the Vietnam Fatherland Front. See: http://vietnamnews.vn/politics-laws/244485/deputy-pm-heads-fatherlandfront.html [reproduced below]. We request your assessment of the following: Q1. What is the significance of installing a Politburo member as the president of the Fatherland Front, a move considered rare in Vietnam? ANSWER: Heads of the Vietnam Fatherland Front (VFF) in recent times have been retired members of the Politburo. There appears to be two possible explanations. The first is Deputy Prime Minister Nhan is being given a chance to prove himself as a man of the people after his lacklustre performance as Minister of Education and Training. This will have a bearing on his future at the next party congress. The second explanation is less charitable, Mr. Nhan is being shunted aside and is unlikely to be a contender for the prime ministership in 2016. Q2 When Nhan, an East Germany- and US-trained technocrat, was admitted to the Politburo last April, the Vietnam Communist Party apparently sought to cash in on a face familiar to Western investors as Vietnam is struggling to resuscitate the economy. So is this appointment indicative that the countrys leadership has changed tact? If, so why? If not, why not? How do you expect foreign investors and the diplomatic community to react to this appointment? ANSWER: It is unclear at this stage if Mr. Nhan will give up his portfolio as Deputy Prime Minister. His current trip to South Korea seems to indicate for now that the government is indeed trying to cash in on his credentials. Mr. Nhans appointment to head the VFF per se will be of little interest to foreign investors. Diplomats will watch closely to see if Mr. Nhan is being given a chance to prove himself as a young member of the Politburo or whether he is being shunted aside. Q3. The Vietnam Fatherland Front is an umbrella organization of all political and social groups in Vietnam whose mandate is to challenge the Party and government

2 thinking and policy. Has the group been doing a good job in this matter? If, so why? If not, why not? ANSWER: The VFF plays an important role in conveying the views of its mass organisations to the party and the government. It also plays a key role in the selection of candidates for the National Assembly. The VFF must operate within pragmatic limits. It can convey policy suggestions and criticism to the party but it cannot confront the party. The VFFs performance can be rated as mediocre at best. The real measure of effectiveness is the role of mass organisations. The Vietnam Womens Union scores highly while the Youth Federation seems out of touch with todays young people. The VFF has the unenviable role of herding cats among it s membership. Q4. With Nhan at the helm, is there any ground for hope that he would be able to inject new life into the Fatherland Front? Some sceptics say things could even get worse because Nhan, a Politburo member, would just make the Fatherland Front a puppet organization rubber-stamping all the policies of the Vietnam Communist Party. Is that a fair criticism and what is your assessment? ANSWER: In Confucian times, and in present circumstances, a retired official of impeccable integrity was/is the best person to avoid a conflict of interest. On the one hand, Mr. Nhans relative youth holds promise that he can bring the VFF into the twenty-first century by inspiring young people in the various mass organisations. There is a clear conflict of interest in Mr. Nhans case because as a member of the Politburo he is a referee, as head of the VFF he is a player. On the other hand, Mr. Nhans track record does not hold out much hope that he will be truly dynamic. Q5. What needs to be done to empower the Fatherland Front and give it more teeth? ANSWER: The VFF needs to expand its membership to include more groups that are not directly represented at present including non-government organisations and peoples voluntary associations. The biggest single reform should be to make the General Confederation of Trade Unions a truly effective representative of those who work in the textile and garment industry, especially foreign joint ventures. The head of the VFF should be directly elected by its members not parachuted into office from above. The VFF should take a leaf out the National Assemblys book and allow leadership positions to be contested by independent candidates as well as those chosen by VFF-affiliated organisations. Q6. Can you elaborate on your statement, The biggest single reform should be to make the General Confederation of Trade Unions a truly effective representative of those who work in the textile and garment industry, especially foreign joint ventures. Do you mean that the Confederation has not done a good job in protecting the workers who work in those areas? ANSWER: Yes, and that is why wildcat strikes take place.

3 Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Nguyen Thien Nhan to Chair Vietnam Fatherland Front, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 9, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Deputy PM heads Fatherland Front

Viet Nam News, September 6, 2013

Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan (L) will take on the new appointment of President of the Viet Nam Fatherland Front (VFF) Central Committee. VNA/VNS Photo

HA NOI (VNS) Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan will take on the new appointment of President of the Viet Nam Fatherland Front (VFF) Central Committee. Commenting on his new role, Nhan said he would try his best to guide the VFF to fulfill its goals of contributing to national unity as well as mobilising citizens to participate in movements and campaigns designed to help stabilise the macro economy, curb inflation and maintain economic growth. The appointment was made at yesterday's VFF Central Committee's sixth conference, held to discuss its key tasks through 2013. He expressed his hope to receive support from its member groups, agencies and people of all social strata in order to improve the VFF's operations.

4 He also appealed to the Party and State to focus more attention towards the committee which contributes to enhancing the social and religious unity of the nation. Addressing the event, outgoing president Huynh Dam said he also hoped that the Party and the State would create more legal grounds to support the front's supervisory role in order to improve the political system as well as to promote greater national unity. The committee also aims to continue promoting late President Ho Chi Minh's moral examples. VNS

Vietnams Leadership Dynamics

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presentation to Bureau of Intelligence and Research Outreach Department of State June 7, 2013

Enlarged 11th Plenum?

Mid-way point between 11th and 12th national party congresses A mid-term conference Replacement of Party Secretary General? Additional member(s) of Politburo? Shunting aside some incumbents
Nguyen Thien Nhan to Fatherland Front