MARKET RESEARCH

Sep 09th Sep 13th

SPOTLIGHT
Chinese Balance of Trade (in USD hundred million)

Portugal
Portuguese 10-year bond prices fell for four consecutive days, while waiting for EU and IMF next week reviews of how the nation is meeting the terms of its financial aid program. On Friday, volatility on Portuguese bonds was the highest in the Euro Area. Industrial production in Portugal decreased 2.30% in Jul over the same month last year. In August, the annual inflation rate measured by the CPI decreased by 0.6 pp. to 0.2 percent month-over-month. This slowdown was mainly due to lower costs of clothing, footwear and transportation, which were partly offset by rising food prices.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Sep 09
PSI 20 STOXX 50 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG
5.953,90 2.798,31 6.530,74 8.276,32 4.040,33 14.205,23 22.750,65

Sep 10
6.031,88 2.851,40 6.583,99 8.446,54 4.116,64 14.423,36 22.976,65

Sep 11
6.045,78 2.863,44 6.588,43 8.495,73 4.119,11 14.425,07 22.937,14

Sep 12
6.078,12 2.862,07 6.588,98 8.494,00 4.106,63 14.387,27 22.953,72

Sep 13
6.059,93 2.867,11 6.583,80 8.509,42 4.114,50 14.404,67 22.915,28

Wkly Chg
1,37% 2,27% 0,56% 2,82% 1,61% 3,92% 1,30%

Europe
European stocks reached this week its highest level in more than five years. In Jun, the industrial production in the Euro Area and in EU 27 increased by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Durable consumer goods fell by 1% in the former and increased 0.1% in the latter, when compared with the same month in 2012. Non-durable consumer goods decreased by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively. In Greece, industrial output recorded its steepest decline in 16 months, falling 8.1% year-onyear in July after an upwardly revised 0.6% rise in the previous month. Last Friday, Italys 10-year government bonds declined for the first time in three days, with its borrowing costs rising to the highest level since Oct 2012, as euro-area leaders voiced concern that political instability could threaten economic reforms. Furthermore, the Italian industrial production fell -1.1%, while analysts forecasted a 0.3% increase of this indicator.

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CURRENCIES
Sep 09
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/YUAN AUD/JPY
1,326 1,236 0,845 132,19 8,113 92,05

Sep 10
1,327 1,240 0,843 133,07 8,118 93,26

Sep 11
1,331 1,239 0,841 132,87 8,146 93,13

Sep 12
1,330 1,238 0,842 132,42 8,135 92,24

Sep 13
1,330 1,236 0,837 132,11 8,137 91,85

Wkly Chg
0,88% 0,04% -0,70% 1,11% 0,86% 0,83%

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REFERENCE RATES
Sep 09 Euribor 1M Euribor 3M Euribor 6M Euribor 12M Eonia
0,129% 0,225% 0,342% 0,547% 0,068%

Sep 10
0,129% 0,225% 0,343% 0,549% 0,071%

Sep 11
0,128% 0,224% 0,342% 0,550% 0,073%

Sep 12
0,127% 0,224% 0,341% 0,547% 0,068%

Sep 13
0,127% 0,223% 0,342% 0,548% 0,072%

Asia
While Chinas exports increased 5.1%, more than estimated in Aug, inflation stayed below the government target. The Chinese producer-price index fell 1.6% in Aug from a year earlier, after a 2.3% drop in Jul. Japans economy expanded (3.7% growth) faster than initially expected, underscoring the strength of Japans recovery and boosting the probability of a twostaged increase in the sales tax. The Australian jobless rate rose to a four-year high of 5.8%, after a surprising drop in employment in Aug. Australian consumer confidence rose to 110.6 - the highest level since Dec 2010 - as the prospect of a government change and lower of interest rates boosted sentiment among households.

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BOND YIELDS
Sep 09 Portugal 6M Portugal 5Y Portugal 10Y Spain 10Y France 10Y Italy 10Y Germany 10Y UK 10Y
1,471% 6,556% 7,001% 4,535% 2,569% 4,525% 1,967% 2,975%

Sep 10
1,462% 6,563% 7,098% 4,526% 2,626% 4,532% 2,031% 3,029%

Sep 11
1,480% 6,608% 7,128% 4,494% 2,592% 4,532% 2,003% 3,024%

Sep 12
1,490% 6,731% 7,238% 4,462% 2,559% 4,529% 2,004% 2,952%

Sep 13
1,740% 7,184% 7,461% 4,499% 2,537% 4,575% 1,975% 2,943%

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SPOTLIGHT
Brazilian Retail Sales (% monthly change)

United States
This week, fears of a military conflict continued to recede, as Chinese upbeat reports had a positive impact in US stocks good weekly performance. Despite this, economic reports showed that US economy is slowing down, ahead of Fed meeting next week. Retail sales rose less than expected, growing just a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, while markets expected a 0.3% increase. Applications for home loans plunged as mortgage rates reached the highest value of the year, with refinancing activity falling to its lowest level in more than four years. Moreover, the Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity sank 13.5% last week. Additionally, consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low of 76.8 in Sep, with Americans worrying that higher interest rates will put a damper on the housing market and overall growth. This is the lowest level since Apr, well below the expected 82.0 reading. It was announced this week that the DJIA will suffer its biggest change ever, as Alcoa, Bank of America and HP three stalwarts of corporate America that have fallen out of favor lately with investors will be replaced by Goldman Sachs, Visa and Nike.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Sep 09
S&P 500 DJIA NQ 100 S&P Lac 40
1.671,71 15.063,12 3.169,93 3.723,59

Sep 10
1.683,99 15.191,06 3.185,07 3.759,20

Sep 11
1.689,13 15.326,60 3.179,86 3.765,26

Sep 12
1.683,42 15.300,64 3.175,57 3.708,78

Sep 13
1.687,99 15.376,06 3.178,27 3.700,54

Wkly Chg
1,98% 3,04% 1,43% 2,38%

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CURRENCIES
Sep 09
USD/JPY USD/YUAN AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD
99,72 6,121 0,923 1,570 0,933 1,037

Sep 10
100,29 6,120 0,930 1,573 0,935 1,035

Sep 11
99,80 6,119 0,933 1,582 0,930 1,031

Sep 12
99,58 6,118 0,926 1,580 0,931 1,032

Sep 13
99,36 6,119 0,925 1,588 0,930 1,036

Wkly Chg
0,25% -0,03% 0,61% 1,58% -0,83% -0,55%

South America
In Brazil, retail sales rose 10 times faster than the market expected, keeping up pressure on the Central Bank to maintain borrowing costs high. Chiles peso registered the biggest fall among major emergingmarket currencies, as its central bank indicated that it may cut borrowing costs. Furthermore, Banco Central de Chile reported that the Chilean Balance of Trade fell less than expected in Aug, to an annual rate of 0.53B. As for Mxico, inflation unexpectedly fell to 3.46%, as analysts expected a 3.51% rise.

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COMMODITIES
-1,56% 4,11% -3,60% -2,00%
Crude Oil WTI Natural Gas Crude Oil Brent Corn

-4,71% -6,89% -1,23% 1,91%

Gold Silver Copper Sugar

Commodities
Oil prices fell, as fears of a conflict in the Middles East waned and as US economic reports disappointed investors. Gold prices also fell as these fears diminished and as markets brace for the Feds meeting next week, in which it is expected to announce its intentions to begin tapering its stimulus policy. Natural gas rallied, as weather reports showed above normal temperatures. Furthermore, inventory data revealed US stockpiles rose less than expected last week.

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US TREASURY YIELDS
Sep 09 US 3M US 1Y US 10 Y US 30 Y
0,025% 0,111% 2,917% 3,856%

Sep 10
0,020% 0,116% 2,970% 3,901%

Sep 11
0,025% 0,111% 2,920% 3,858%

Sep 12
0,023% 0,111% 2,914% 3,856%

Sep 13
0,018% 0,109% 2,890% 3,839%

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Ana Santos

Cristiano Pereira

David Novo

Mrcia Azevedo

Tiago Fonseca

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