Transportation Research Part A 40 (2006) 725743 www.elsevier.

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A multi-year pavement maintenance program using a stochastic simulation-based genetic algorithm approach
Piya Chootinan a, Anthony Chen
a

a,*

, Matthew R. Horrocks b, Doyt Bolling

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, 4110 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-4110, USA b Horrocks Engineers, American Fork, UT 84003, USA c Utah Local Technology Assistance Program, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-4110, USA Received 19 April 2005; accepted 15 December 2005

Abstract The objective of this paper is to introduce a multi-year pavement maintenance programming methodology that can explicitly account for uncertainty in pavement deterioration. This is accomplished with the development of a simulation-based genetic algorithm (GA) approach that is capable of planning the maintenance activities over a multi-year planning period. A stochastic simulation is used to simulate the uncertainty of future pavement conditions based on the calibrated deterioration model while GA is used to handle the combinatorial nature of the network-level pavement maintenance programming. The eects of the uncertainty of pavement deterioration on the maintenance program are investigated using a case study. The results show that programming the maintenance activities using only the expected pavement conditions is likely to underestimate the required maintenance budget and overestimate the performance of pavement network. 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Pavement maintenance programming; Simulation-optimization; Genetic algorithms

1. Introduction One of the major requirements of pavement management system (PMS) is the ability to develop a multiyear pavement maintenance program for the entire road network under the jurisdiction of the highway agency. The development of a multi-year pavement maintenance program is highly dependent on the ability to estimate future pavement conditions (Zimmerman, 1995). Unfortunately, the accuracy of the predicted pavement conditions (as well as other types of infrastructure) could be inuenced by the choice of prediction model (Durango and Madanat, 2002) as well as the accuracy of inputs of the deterioration model (e.g., future trac load, weather condition, etc.). As a result, the predicted pavement conditions could be subject to substantial uncertainty. Because the uncertainty of the predicted pavement conditions contributes to the
*

Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 435 7977109; fax: +1 435 7971185. E-mail address: achen@cc.usu.edu (A. Chen).

0965-8564/$ - see front matter 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2005.12.003

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reliability of the pavement maintenance plan, these uncertainties (e.g., inputs and prediction model) should be carefully considered when making pavement maintenance decisions (Ben-Akiva et al., 1993). Durango and Madanat (2002) suggested using a family of models to represent the physical deterioration of infrastructure (e.g., pavement). Each model contributes to the predicted value of pavement condition dierently according to the belief (weight or probability) of decision makers that the model would be a good representation of the deterioration process at each stage of pavement condition. This belief can be updated when the additional information regarding the actual pavement deterioration becomes available. Although a large number of sophisticated deterioration models have been developed during the past several decades, the Markov transition probability matrix (TPM) approach appears to be the only model explicitly developed to address the uncertainty issue of the predicted pavement condition. In the Markov process, a pavement deteriorates by moving from one state to another state according to the state transition probability specied for each category of pavement condition and type of maintenance undertaken. As opposed to the deterministic deterioration models, the Markov TPM approach forecasts the distribution of future pavement conditions (i.e., the proportion of pavements in each group of pavement condition) rather than the future condition of an individual pavement section (e.g., a single numerical value). Therefore, it is usually applied for the network-level management process. Additional information such as subjective opinions (or rules) of the highway agency is generally required to implement the TPM approach at the project level (Robert et al., 2002). In addition, the requirement of comprehensive historical performance data for developing the reliable TPMs appears to limit its application in programming maintenance activities (Wang et al., 1994; Li et al., 1997). To reduce the amount of data required, Li et al. (1996) suggested using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) combined with a deterministic deterioration model to develop TPMs for a variety of pavement categories and/or individual pavement sections. In fact, the idea of using MCS allows the stochastic behavior (uncertainty) of the pavement deterioration to be incorporated explicitly in the modeling process of PMS without the employment of TPMs. Another challenge in developing a long-term maintenance plan at a network level is the ability to identify proper maintenance activities for individual pavement sections at the project level that are consistent with the network-level recommendation (Chan et al., 1994; Mbwana and Turnquist, 1996). This type of problem is usually formulated using integer variables to represent maintenance activities selected for individual pavement sections (i.e., integer program). It is also known as the combinatorial problem, which is very dicult to solve due to a vast solution space (i.e., the number of possible solutions increases exponentially as the problem size increases). Chan et al. (1994) introduced the genetic algorithm (GA), which is one of the evolutionary computing techniques that have shown considerable success in solving a number of complex large-scale problems in many disciplines, to handle this diculty in the pavement maintenance programming. In this paper, we present a simulation-optimization framework for programming the maintenance activities over a multi-year planning period. The combination of stochastic simulation and GA allows the development of a project-based networklevel maintenance plan that can explicitly take into account the uncertainty of future pavement conditions in the decision-making process. In other words, the risk that the maintenance plan would fail to fulll the required pavement standard is explicitly considered when selecting maintenance activities. The stochastic simulation is used to simulate the uncertainty of future pavement conditions based on the calibrated deterioration model (for the evaluation of objective function and constraints of the mathematical program) while GA searches for a good solution (i.e., pavement maintenance plan) for a given funding level and a required pavement standard. The organization of this paper is as follows. Section 2 presents the development of mathematical formulations of two pavement maintenance programs, which aim to minimize the maintenance cost and to maximize the pavement performance, respectively. The stochastic formulations in which the uncertainty of future pavement conditions is explicitly modeled are presented along with their deterministic counterparts. In Section 3, the solution procedure, which is the stochastic simulation-based GA approach, is described. Section 4 presents the numerical results of a case study conducted using the proposed framework. Finally, the ndings and conclusions of the study are reported and discussed in Section 5. 2. Methodology The problem of pavement maintenance programming is one of maintaining the serviceability of the entire pavement network with the available funds and resources. To fulll these requirements, highway agencies can

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utilize a variety of maintenance goals, such as maximizing network performance, maximizing the cost-eectiveness of maintenance activities, minimizing road user cost, minimizing the present worth of the total maintenance cost, etc., with a certain set of constraints (e.g., budget, pavement standard, manpower, equipment, etc.). The development of a multi-year maintenance plan for the entire network requires a systematic approach to optimally select the appropriate maintenance activities. In addition, the prediction of future pavement conditions and the impacts of maintenance activities on the deterioration of pavement are also very crucial. For convenience, the notation used in this study is provided in Table 1. 2.1. Pavement performance prediction and associated uncertainties Pavement performance prediction models are required to perform a long-term maintenance programming. These prediction models assist highway agencies to determine what has happened to pavements over the past years and to predict what may happen in the future (Peterson, 1987) so that the maintenance works could be performed cost-eectively. To simplify the pavement condition analysis and the communication to the higherlevel (administrative) management, the composite performance indices representing the overall pavement condition are often used. In general, the composite performance indices are a function of pavement type, trac loading, age of pavement, severity level of individual distress, etc. (Haas and Hudson, 1982). In this study, present serviceability rating (PSR), developed by Lee et al. (1993) for the highway pavement monitoring system (HPMS), is used. However, it should be noted that the framework developed in this study could be applied using any deterioration models with a similar structure. PSR is a surface-condition rating scheme based on a numeric scale between 0 and 5 (where 4.5 is always used in practice), 0 indicating extremely poor condition and 5 indicating a perfect pavement. The condition of pavement section s at any time period t, as given in Eq. (1), is a function of the initial pavement condition after construction (P0), pavement structural number (STRst), age of pavement (Yst), and the cumulative 18-kip axle loadings on pavement section s at year t(Dst). The calibrated parameters (i.e., a, b, c, and d) of this model for dierent types of pavement can be found in the study of Lee et al. (1993). The factor AF adjusts the deterioration rate of a pavement in a particular climate zone and functional group.
c d PSRst P 0 AF a STRb st Y st Dst .

Table 1 Mathematical formulation nomenclature Variable xst T S c(xst) P(xst) r Bt Ls Ws Pt P0 qst(xst, Yst) AF STRst Yst Dst a, b, c, d Pr() xst est Description Decision variable, type of treatment applied to pavement section s at year t Number of years in the planning horizon Total number of pavement segments Unit cost function related to type of treatment Condition of pavement section s after applied treatment at year t Discount rate Budget constraint at year t Length of pavement segment s Width of pavement segment s Required network performance standard at year t Maximum possible pavement condition rating Actual improvement in pavement condition as a function of treatment type Adjustment factor regarding climate zone Structural number of segment s at year t Age of pavement at year t since the initial construction or last major rehabilitation Cumulative 18-kip equivalent single-axel loads, EASL (millions) carried by the pavement segment s in year t Pavement performance coecients for pavement performance prediction model Probability of event Predicted (expected) trac load on segment s at year t Prediction error of trac load on segment s at year t

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As dierent maintenance activities are implemented, the performance of pavement is aected dierently. Routine maintenance activities (e.g., chip seal) minimize the eects of deterioration and provide minor improvements in pavement condition (i.e., PSR), some types of treatment, such as minor rehabilitations (e.g., thin overlay) may add additional strength to the pavement (i.e., increase the thickness of pavement) and provide a new riding service. The major rehabilitations or reconstruction will reset the pavement to the initial stage (i.e., zero cumulative load, age of zero). Accordingly, the characteristics of pavement not only change over time, but they are also aected by the maintenance activities applied. Mathematically speaking, pavement characteristics (e.g., STRst, Yst, Dst, etc.) become a function of the maintenance activity undertaken (xst). In this study, the uncertainty of predicted pavement conditions is assumed to be associated with the prediction error (est) of future trac loads. Although other sources of uncertainty are present, when predicting future pavement conditions, it is assumed here that the uncertainties of future trac loads are several magnitudes larger than other sources of uncertainty. The accumulative trac load on pavement section s at year t is modeled as a random variable and can be expressed as: ~ st e D ~ st1 e xst est ; D 2

where xst is the predicted (expected) trac load on pavement section s at year t, and est is the prediction error, which could be drawn from any probability distribution (e.g., a normal distribution). It should be noted that the eect of prediction error could be accumulated over time. Since the predicted annual trac load is a random variable, the predicted pavement performance (Eq. (3)), which takes the eect of maintenance activity into account, becomes a random variable as well. Here, it is assumed that the pavement structural number (STRst) remains unchanged regardless of the maintenance activity.
t X c ~ d xst ; e PSRst xst ; e P 0 AF a STRb Y x D qsi xsi ; Y si ; st st st st i1

where qsi is the actual improvement in the condition of pavement section s at year i, as a result of the treatment option applied (xsi) (Eq. (4)). Since the maintenance activity cannot improve the condition of pavement higher than P0 (the upper limit), the actual increment is the minimum between the eect of the treatment option (see ~si ) and the maximal possible increment (i.e., the dierence between P0 and the pavement condition Table 2, q before applying treatment). ~si xsi ; Y si g. qsi xsi ; Y si MinfP 0 PSRsi ; e; q 4 Because a pavement performance is a function of trac load, environment, age, and previous maintenance ~si regarding the same mainteactivities, the improvement in the condition of pavement section s at year i q nance activity is not consistent between dierent ages of pavement (Al-Suleiman et al., 1991). For instance, a routine maintenance could be very eective when applied within the rst few years of a new pavement segment, but its eectiveness reduces when pavements approach their design life. A reconstruction always returns the pavement to the initial condition regardless the existing pavement condition. 2.2. Deterministic formulations For comparison purposes, the deterministic models will be presented rst and followed by their stochastic counterparts. In this paper, two maintenance goals commonly used in the network-level pavement mainteTable 2 Available treatment type and eect on pavement condition (Utah LTAP, 2004) Code Treatment type Unit cost ($/m2) Age of pavement applicable (< year) 20 0 1 2 3 4 Routine maintenance Surface treatment Overlay Major rehabilitation 0.00 0.20 0.74 4.67 7.74 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4.500 19 0.000 0.000 0.450 0.900 4.500 16 0.000 0.000 0.675 1.575 4.500 13 0.000 0.225 1.125 1.800 4.500 10 0.000 0.225 1.575 1.800 4.500 7 0.000 0.450 1.575 1.800 4.500 4 0.000 0.450 1.575 1.800 4.500 1 0.000 0.450 1.575 1.800 4.500

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nance optimization (Irrgang and Maze, 1993; Zimmerman, 1995), which are pavement-performance maximization and maintenance-cost minimization, are considered. The development of a multi-year pavement maintenance plan is constrained by the available maintenance budget and the minimum acceptable pavement condition. The formulations presented below use integer variables to represent the maintenance options (xst) selected for pavement section s at year t. 2.2.1. Pavement performance maximization Maximize: subject to: Z1
S X s 1 T X t 1

H t x; 8t ;

5a 5b 5c 8s; t;
t X i 1

cxst Ls W s 6 Bt ; 8s; t;

P xst P P t ;

xst 2 f0; 1; . . . ; mg; where

5d qsi xsi ; Y si ; 8s; t; 5e 5f 5g 5h

c d P xst P 0 AF a STRb st Y st xst Dst xst & Dst xst ; 8s; t; Dst1 xst ; otherwise & 1; if xst m ; 8s; t; Y st xst Y st1 1; otherwise H t x MinfP xst g;
8s

xst ;

if xst m

8t.

Under this formulation, the objective function (Eq. (5a)) aims to maximize the performance of the entire pavement network, which is dened by the summation of the minimum PSR among all pavement sections in each year during the planning period given in Eq. (5h). Eq. (5b) ensures that the annual maintenance expenditure does not exceed the available budget. The available treatment options and their associated costs are presented in Table 2. Eq. (5c) maintains that the performance of all pavement sections after treatment is above a predened condition. Eq. (5d) constrains the decision variables (treatment options) to be integer. Eq. (5e) models the performance of pavement considering the actual deterioration and the improvement provided by the treatment options. Eqs. (5f) and (5g) model the changes of pavement properties (i.e., age and accumulative load) over time. Pavements are triggered to the initial condition (i.e., zero cumulative load and age of zero) whenever the reconstruction (xst = m) is applied. 2.2.2. Maintenance cost minimization In addition to the maximization of network-level performance, decision makers often require a maintenance plan that minimizes the present worth of the total maintenance cost over the planning horizon, yet provides the desired network-level performance. The objective function in Eq. (6) is used in this case. In Eq. (6), future maintenance costs are converted to the present value by using the conversion factor of (1 + r)t+1. Similarly, the maintenance cost minimization model considers the same set of constraints as the performance maximization model (Eqs. (5b)(5g)). Minimize: subject to: Z2
T X t 1

1 r t 1

S X s 1

cxst Ls W s ;

Eqs. (5b)(5g).

2.2.3. Performance maximization and cost minimization It is natural to combine the previous two optimization problems to the bi-objective model in which both maintenance goals are simultaneously optimized. That is, the maintenance plan that costs less and provides

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higher pavement performance is more preferable. In this study, both objectives are given a weight (e.g., priority) and combined into a single objective value as shown in Eq. (7). Maximize : subject to : ~ 1 w2 Z ~2; w1 Z Eqs. (5b)(5h), 7

where w1 and w2 are weights (priorities) given to the performance of pavement and the maintenance cost sav~ 1 and Z ~ 2 are respectively, the standardized versions of Eqs. (5a) and (6). The standardization (e.g., noring. Z malized between 0 and 1) is required because dierent objectives are usually dened in incomparable scales (e.g., money and time). In addition, the direct usage of the original objective values may cause the domination of one objective over another. The original objective values can be normalized as follows.
min ~1 Z1 Z1 ; Z Z max Z min 1 1 max Z Z 2 ~2 2 Z ; min Z max Z 2 2

8 9

and Z min are respectively, the maximal and minimal possible values of objective i. where Z max i i 2.3. Stochastic formulations In the preceding section, pavements are assumed to deteriorate deterministically (i.e., no uncertainty involved in the predicted pavement condition). By assuming that the prediction error (est) of future trac loads follows a known probability distribution, it can be incorporated into the existing pavement performance models (Eqs. (5e)(5h)) to account for the uncertainty of pavement deterioration as follows. 2.3.1. Expected performance maximization " # T X Maximize: Z 3 E H t x; e ;
t 1

10a 10b 8s; t; 10c 10d 8s; t; 10e 10f 10g 10h

subject to:

S X s 1

cxst Ls W s 6 Bt ;

8t;

PrP xst ; e P P t P ast ; xst 2 f0; 1; . . . ; mg; where 8s; t;

t X c ~d qsi xsi ; Y si ; P xst ; e P 0 AF a STRb st Y st xst Dst xst ; e

& xst est ; if xst m ~ st xst ; e D ; ~ Dst1 xst est ; otherwise & 1; if xst m ; 8s; t; Y st xst Y st1 1; otherwise H t x; e Min fP xst ; eg;
8s

i1

8s; t;

8t.

As a result of the uncertainty of future trac loads, the future pavement conditions become random variables. In addition, all relations associated with pavement performance (e.g., Eqs. (5a), (5c), (5e), etc.) become probabilistic functions. Since the value of these functions is not a single numerical value but a probability distribution, the expectation and/or the probability of a certain event are usually used to formulate the stochastic optimization problem (Liu, 1999). Now, the rst problem considered in the previous section becomes one of maximizing the expected value of pavement performance (Eq. (10a)) for a given maintenance budget. While accounting for several possibilities of future pavement conditions, the conditions of individual pavements maintained in each year must satisfy the required standard with a certain condence level (ast)a chance

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constraint. In other words, the probability measure of the event {P(xst, e) P Pt} is at least ast, which can be referred to as the condence that the requirement (e.g., constraint) will not be violated. The remaining deterministic formulations can be modied to account for the uncertainty of future pavement conditions in the same manner. 2.3.2. Maintenance cost minimization Minimize: subject to: Z2
T X t1

1 r

t 1

S X s 1

cxst Ls W s ;

11

Eqs. (10b)(10g).

2.3.3. Expected performance maximization and cost minimization Maximize: subject to: ~ 3 w2 Z ~2; w1 Z Eqs. (10b)(10h), 12

~ 1 shown in Eq. (8). ~ 3 is determined similarly to Z where Z As shown above, these formulations involve non-linear functions, non-dierentiable functions, step functions, and integer variables. Although the step functions can be generalized to the linear forms, the transformation will require additional variables, which will increase the problem size. In addition, the pavement performance model (deterioration model) is certainly non-linear. Moreover, when the stochastic elements are incorporated into the formulation, these characteristics all together are incompatible with the traditional optimization techniques. This motivates the usage of GA for solving pavement maintenance programs proposed in this study. 3. Simulation-optimization framework 3.1. Stochastic simulation A simulation-based GA procedure that combines the stochastic simulation and the GA to solve the stochastic programs is developed in this study. Traditionally, simulation is the process of replicating reality based on a set of assumptions and conceived models of reality (Ang and Tang, 1984). To handle the uncertainty of future pavement conditions, the stochastic simulation is used to simulate the uncertainty of future trac loads used in the prediction model based on a probability distribution with the predened mean and standard deviation. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique, one of the stratied sampling techniques that has shown to outperform the simple Monte Carlo sampling technique (McKay, 1988), is employed in this study. LHS partitions the distribution of future trac loads into several equal intervals according to the number of samples required. Only one random variate is sampled from each interval. This sampling technique signicantly reduces the number of samples yet delivers a reasonable level of accuracy. LHS is incorporated into the GA to evaluate the values of objective function and constraints corresponding to the maintenance decision under a stochastic environment (i.e., pavement deterioration). That is, the objective function and constraints of the stochastic formulations presented earlier are evaluated several times (i.e., the number of samples) using the simulation. 3.2. Genetic algorithm (GA) GA is an evolutionary computing technique that, in principal, mimics the mechanism of natural selection process. According to Goldberg (1989), GA diers from the classical, calculus-based optimization techniques in the following ways: (i) instead of using a point-to-point search method, as in the traditional optimization techniques, GA simultaneously searches from a population of points, known as chromosomes, to explore the solution space; (ii) GA uses probabilistic transition rules (for its operators) as a guide to search the solution

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1st Section

2nd Section

X1

X2

X3

X4

X5

X6 X7

X8

X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19 X20

10th yea r

Xi = type of treatment {0,1,2,3,4}

Fig. 1. Representation of decision variables.

space with likely improvement; (iii) GA can work with continuous and discrete parameters, dierentiable and non-dierentiable functions, uni-modal and multi-modal functions, as well as convex and non-convex feasible regions. 3.2.1. Representation of decision variables One important aspect of applying GA to any problem is the representation of the decision variables in the genetic fashion or as a chromosome. For the pavement maintenance problem studied here, the chromosome is coded as a series of T-year maintenance activities for all pavement segments S, as shown in Fig. 1. As depicted in Fig. 1, each chromosome consists of a series of maintenance actions represented by numerical values: 0, 1, 2, . . . , m (see Table 2 for treatment options). For each pavement section s, there are T genes representing the maintenance treatments for T years. For example, the rst T genes represent the maintenance treatments for the rst pavement section over T years; the second set of T genes is for the second pavement section, and so on. 3.2.2. Constraint handling Because the traditional GA operators are blind to constraints of an optimization problem, the special-purpose constraint-handling methods are usually required to ensure the feasibility of solutions. As with any optimization procedure, improper constraint handling will result in a considerable amount of eort wasted in evaluating infeasible solutions. To ensure that GA performs the search eectively, the budget constraint and the pavement performance constraint are handled by the special constraint-handling procedure. This procedure utilizes a combination of the penalty and repair methods. The penalty method converts a constrained problem into an unconstrained problem by including a penalty value in the objective function (Goldberg, 1989). The repair method attempts to repair the infeasible solutions by using a special solution mapping to ensure the feasibility of the solutions (Liu, 1999). For the pavement maintenance problem studied here, the repair method is applied rst by attempting to obtain a feasible or near-feasible solution. Under the repair method, both budget and pavement performance constraints are examined simultaneously to determine the positions of genes in the chromosome that cause the solution to be infeasible. The positions of the bad genes indicate when and where (i.e., which pavement segment and at what year) the budget and/or pavement performance constraints are violated. Once these bad genes are identied, the repair method attempts to x these genes with the most cost-eective treatment. This process is repeated several times until the solution is feasible or the repair is impossible. If the solution is not feasible, the penalty method penalizes the tness according to the degree of the constraint violations. 3.3. Stochastic simulation-based GA procedure The simulation-based GA procedure for solving the pavement maintenance program is displayed in Fig. 2 and is summarized as follows:

10th ye a r

2nd year

2 nd ye ar

3rd year

3rd year

8th yea r

9th ye ar

8th y ear

9th yea r

1st y ear

1 st y ear

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Pavement Inventory Initial pavement condition Initial traffic loads Growth Rate

Generate Initial Maintenance Solutions

Update Maintenance Strategies by GA Operators Reproduction Crossover 3 Mutation

N=1

S =1 S = S+1

N = N +1

Generate Random Traffic Loading

Evaluate Maintenance Strategies Objective function Constraints

No

Collect Statistical Inferences

S > S max Yes No Stochastic Constraints met? Yes

Constraint Handling

N > N_ pop Yes

No

Solution and Probabilistic Summary

Yes

Stopping criteria met?

No

Fig. 2. Flow diagram for a stochastic simulation-based GA for PMS.

1. Initialize a set of maintenance solutions (Npop solutions) according to the pavement inventory data and pavement performance model. 2. Set N = 1 (the counter for number of solutions) and S = 1 (the counter for number of sample points). Each maintenance solution will be evaluated based on the objective function, and checked for the feasibility Smax times by the stochastic simulation. If the maintenance solution violates the stochastic constraints, constraint-handling procedure is applied. 3. Rank the maintenance solutions based on their tness to the problem. Update solutions (maintenance plans) by GA operators, reproduction, crossover and mutation in order to obtain a new set of maintenance solutions.

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4. Repeat steps 2 and 3 until stopping criterion is met (e.g., the maximum number of generations). 5. Report the solution and its probabilistic summary.

4. Case study 4.1. General information To illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method, a case study was conducted. The study network consists of two routes of exible pavement. Both routes consist of a 31.450 lane-miles (50.621 lane-kilometers) of exible pavement with three control sections, one control section on the rst route and the remaining two control sections on the second route. This study aggregates the pavement inventory data into approximately 3281-feet (1000-m) intervals across both roadways. As a result, there are 53 pavement segments for the case study (see pavement inventory data in Chootinan, 2001). In this case study, age of pavement segments ranges from 3 years to 9 years with an average pavement age of 4.75 years. Initial PSR values range from 2.49 to 3.48 with a network average PSR of 3.16. A 10-year maintenance plan (year 20002009) is programmed in order to maintain the pavement condition above a PSR value of 2.5 with an assumed annual budget of US$ 61,410. Present worth calculations are conducted using an arbitrary discount rate of 12%. The available treatment options, as shown in Table 2, are: 0 no treatment, 1routine maintenance, 2surface treatment, 3minor rehabilitation, 4major rehabilitation. The prediction of future trac loadings utilizes an annual growth rate of 5%. Prediction error of the future trac loadings is simulated using a normal distribution and is assumed to increase proportionally with time. In addition, a condence level of 90% (ast = 0.90) is set to ensure that stochastic constraints are fullled to at least 90%. 4.2. Selection of simulation-based GA parameters Although a large population pool in GA has a higher probability of obtaining a better solution, it might be impractical in a simulation-based framework since the number of function evaluations per generation is not simply the number of chromosomes in the population pool. The number of function evaluations is essentially the number of chromosomes times the sample size used in the stochastic simulation. Consequently, it is important to size the population pool such that it is reasonably small yet allows for reasonably good solutions. The following settings of GA are used in this study: the population size is 32. Crossover probability is 0.50 (uniform crossover) while mutation probability is 0.01 (random mutation). The readers may refer to Goldberg (1989) for the detail description of GA operators. The initial population is randomly generated. The roulette wheel (proportional) selection and the half-replacement strategy are used for reproduction. Chromosomes in each generation are ranked based on their tness (penalized objective value) and divided into two parts. Only the chromosomes in the top half (i.e., better solutions) are eligible for reproduction. Chromosomes in the bottom half will be replaced by the ospring generated by crossover and mutation. The genetic search will be performed until the maximum number of generations (50,000 generations) is reached, In the case that the infeasible solution cannot successfully be repaired; a very high penalty will be applied. The sample size of the stochastic simulation is 100. 4.3. Numerical results Multi-year pavement maintenance plans were developed using both the deterministic and stochastic formulations. All three objectives, which are the performance maximization, maintenance cost minimization, as well as the bi-objective model, are considered in both formulations. Comparison of the maintenance plans developed by these two formulations is used to investigate the eects of uncertainty on pavement deterioration under dierent maintenance objectives.

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39.0 37.5 36.0

735

Deterministic Approach (37.23)

Stochastic Approach (36.53)

Cumulative PSR

34.5 33.0 31.5 30.0 28.5 27.0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Number of Generations
Fig. 3. Convergence curve of pavement performance maximization.

4.3.1. Pavement performance maximization Under the pavement performance maximization objective, the developed maintenance programs attempt to fully utilize the available maintenance budget such that the serviceability level of the lowest (minimum) condition among all pavement sections will be as high as possible. Fig. 3 displays the convergence curves measured in terms of the summation of minimum pavement segment PSR values over the 10-year planning period for both the deterministic and stochastic formulations. As can be seen from the gure, the deterministic and stochastic approaches converge to the solutions (i.e., maintenance plans) with the objective values of 37.23 and 36.53, respectively. In order to evaluate the performance of the maintenance plans developed under the deterministic and stochastic formulations, the pavement performance curve and pavement deterioration curve of both maintenance plans were displayed in Fig. 4. The pavement performance curve displays the network average PSR values before treatment and after treatment for each year of the 10-year maintenance period. To illustrate the stochastic nature of pavement deterioration, a 90% condence level is also included for both pavement-performance and pavement-deterioration curves. The evaluation of performance curves showed that both maintenance plans (deterministic and stochastic approaches) steadily improve the average network-performance throughout the duration of the 10-year planning period. In nearly every year of the planning period, the stochastic formulation generates a lower average network-performance than that of the deterministic formulation. This indicates that the uncertainty increases the predicted pavement deterioration and results in a lower-than-expected pavement performance. This is conrmed by evaluating the allocation of maintenance budget in Fig. 5 and the maintenance activities summarized in Tables 3 and 4. From Fig. 5, it can be seen that the stochastic formulation utilizes a slightly larger budget than the deterministic formulation for nearly every year of the planning period. When accounting for the uncertainty of pavement deterioration, pavement sections are expected to deteriorate at a higher rate. As a result, a higher level of treatments (e.g., treatment Type 2) is generally required to maintain the required level of pavement standard. In Tables 3 and 4, it can be seen that a higher percentage of pavement area is being treated by treatment Type 2 in the stochastic formulation compared to the deterministic formulation. The increase in pavement area being treated by treatment Type 2 results in a maintenance cost dierence of US$ 6807 and a network average PSR dierence of approximately 0.01. Under this situation, the stochastic formulation suggests that a 1.1% increase in the maintenance cost would be required to sustain a comparable pavement

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Deterioration Lower Deterioration Upper Performance Mean Deterministic Performance Deterioration Mean Performance Lower Performance Upper

4.500

Network Average PSR

4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1999

Stochastic Performance Curve

Deterministic Performance Curve

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Year
Fig. 4. Performance of pavement under performance maximization.

0.06

Budget US$ 61,410

Annual Maintenance Cost ($M)

0.05

0.04

0.03

Deterministic Stochastic

0.02

0.01

0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year
Fig. 5. Maintenance cost allocation under pavement performance maximization.

condition to the deterministic formulation. In general, the following observations can be made about the performance maximization results: 1. The maintenance plans recommended by both deterministic and stochastic formulations are composed primarily of treatment types 1 and 2. However, the results in Tables 3 and 4 indicate that, by accounting for the uncertainty in the stochastic formulation, a larger number of pavement sections are required to undergo a higher level of treatment (treatment Type 2). 2. Higher maintenance cost required for the stochastic formulation results in an increase of US$ 216 per lanemile of roadway compared to the deterministic formulation. This indicates that the deterioration of pavement is underestimated in the deterministic case, which results in an underestimation of the maintenance cost.

P. Chootinan et al. / Transportation Research Part A 40 (2006) 725743 Table 3 Summary of maintenance activities under performance maximization (deterministic case) Treatment option Area of treatments (m2) 2000 0 (Do-nothing) 1 (Routine) 2 (Surface treatment) 3 (Minor rehabilitation) 4 (Major rehabilitation) % of total area treated Maintenance cost (US$) Network ave. PSR before treatment Network ave. PSR after treatment 130,648 204,534 27,125 0 0 63.94 60,182 3.16 3.52 2001 157,493 166,510 38,304 0 0 56.53 60,948 3.33 3.70 2002 107,994 233,313 21,000 0 0 70.19 61,324 3.51 3.86 2003 110,390 229,901 22,016 0 0 69.53 61,402 3.68 4.02 2004 141,694 191,619 28,994 0 0 60.89 59,022 3.84 4.13 2005 95,567 251,746 14,994 0 0 73.62 60,520 3.95 4.26 2006 162,499 161,033 38,775 0 0 55.15 60,219 4.08 4.31 2007 128,662 205,967 27,678 0 0 64.49 60,871 4.14 4.32 2008 115,591 226,696 20,020 0 0 68.10 59,302 4.14 4.31 2009

737

50,176 312,131 0 0 0 86.15 61,337 4.14 4.32

Table 4 Summary of maintenance activities under performance maximization (stochastic case) Treatment option Area of treatments (m2) 2000 0 (Do-nothing) 1 (Routine) 2 (Surface treatment) 3 (Minor rehabilitation) 4 (Major rehabilitation) % of total area treated Maintenance cost (US$) Network ave. PSR before treatment Network ave. PSR after treatment Standard deviation of PSR 194,347 115,871 52,089 0 0 46.36 61,155 3.16 3.50 0.00 2001 142,606 186,396 33,305 0 0 60.64 61,172 3.31 3.67 0.020 2002 107,675 234,332 20,300 0 0 70.28 61,008 3.48 3.84 0.024 2003 149,676 176,329 36,302 0 0 58.69 61,402 3.66 4.00 0.027 2004 124,521 210,941 26,845 0 0 65.63 61,235 3.82 4.16 0.029 2005 108,424 232,988 20,895 0 0 70.07 61,183 3.98 4.29 0.028 2006 146,648 180,659 35,000 0 0 59.52 61,294 4.11 4.32 0.024 2007 127,477 207,082 27,748 0 0 64.82 61,142 4.15 4.31 0.026 2008 121,968 214,448 25,891 0 0 66.34 61,221 4.14 4.30 0.029 2009 109,541 231,577 21,189 0 0 69.77 61,122 4.13 4.29 0.031

4.3.2. Maintenance cost minimization For the cost minimization objective, the maintenance plans developed under both deterministic and stochastic formulations aim to minimize the present worth of the total maintenance cost spent throughout the planning period. The deterministic and stochastic formulations recommended the maintenance plans with the total maintenance costs (present value) of US$ 138,946 and US$ 159,615, respectively (see Fig. 6). As expected, the stochastic formulation requires a higher maintenance cost compared to that of the deterministic formulation in order to maintain the same level of pavement standard. To gain more insight on the increase of maintenance cost, the budget allocation and average network-performance curves displayed respectively in Figs. 7 and 8 were investigated. Similar to the results shown in the previous section, a larger amount of maintenance cost is required for the stochastic formulation. Evaluation of the performance and deterioration curves reveals that the stochastic formulation maintains a higher average network PSR. Although this is counterintuitive, the treatment allocation scheme recommended by the stochastic formulation in Table 6 creates a higher level of pavement performance. Because the pavement conditions in the stochastic formulation deteriorate at a higher rate than the deterministic formulation, a larger pavement area requires treatment, and, in some cases, a higher level of treatment. This results in a 13.6% increase in maintenance cost in the stochastic formulation to maintain the same level of pavement standard. Investigation of the treatment scheme summarized in Tables 5 and 6 indicates that the deterministic formulation treated a larger area of pavement while the stochastic formulation

738
0.30 0.28

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Total Maintenance Cost ($M)

0.26 0.24 0.22 0.20

Stochastic Approach (US$ 159,615)

0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0

Deterministic Approach (US$ 138,946)

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Number of Generations
Fig. 6. Convergence curve of maintenance cost minimization.

0.06

Budget US$ 61,410

Annual Maintenance Cost ($M)

0.05

0.04

0.03

Deterministic Stochastic

0.02

0.01

0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year
Fig. 7. Budget allocation under maintenance cost minimization.

treated less area of pavement with a higher level of treatment. A budget increase of US$ 28,206 from the deterministic approach to the stochastic approach results in a PSR value increase of 0.08. In general, the following observations can be made about the cost minimization results: 1. The deterministic formulation underestimates the pavement deterioration resulting in the reduction of maintenance cost throughout the planning period. This underestimation of maintenance cost translates to a cost dierence of US$ 897 per lane-mile of roadway. 2. Maintenance activities recommended by the stochastic formulation require a larger amount of maintenance cost. This indicates that the deterministic formulation underestimates the pavement deterioration, which leads to the underestimation of the required maintenance cost.

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Deterioration Lower Deterioration Upper Performance Mean Deterministic Performance

739

Deterioration Mean Performance Lower Performance Upper

3.500 3.300

Network Average PSR

3.100 2.900 2.700 2.500 2.300 2.100 1.900 1.700 1.500 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Year
Fig. 8. Performance of pavement under maintenance cost minimization.

Table 5 Summary of maintenance activities under cost minimization (deterministic case) Treatment option Area of treatments (m2) 2000 0 (Do-nothing) 1 (Routine) 2 (Surface treatment) 3 (Minor rehabilitation) 4 (Major rehabilitation) % of total area treated Maintenance cost (US$) Network ave. PSR before treatment Network ave. PSR after treatment 263,607 98,700 0 0 0 27.24 19,396 3.16 3.29 2001 284,626 60,865 16,816 0 0 21.44 24,353 3.10 3.24 2002 249,396 105,911 7000 0 0 31.16 25,971 3.05 3.20 2003 233,894 121,413 7000 0 0 35.44 29,018 3.02 3.21 2004 246,981 108,242 7084 0 0 31.83 26,491 3.03 3.18 2005 233,830 118,777 9700 0 0 35.46 30,489 3.01 3.18 2006 288,324 73,983 0 0 0 20.42 14,539 3.01 3.09 2007 304,584 57,723 0 0 0 15.93 11,343 2.92 2.95 2008 294,435 61,852 6020 0 0 18.73 16,591 2.78 2.83 2009 318,346 43,961 0 0 0 12.13 8639 2.66 2.69

3. On average, the stochastic formulation is likely to recommend a higher level of treatment in order to maintain the minimum pavement condition at the PSR value of 2.5. The uncertainty of pavement deterioration considered in the stochastic formulation led to 96% more of Type 2 treatment being applied when compared to the deterministic formulation.

4.3.3. Bi-objective model Unlike the single-objective models, the bi-objective model attempts to optimize both pavement performance and maintenance cost simultaneously. Although a wide range of weight combinations could be used to represent dierent levels of importance put toward these two objectives, equal weights for both objectives (w1 and w2 are 0.50) are adopted in this study to illustrate the eects of simultaneous optimization of two objectives to develop a compromise maintenance plan. Fig. 9 displays the convergence curves for both deterministic and stochastic formulations. From Fig. 9, the deterministic and stochastic formulations recommended the maintenance plans with the total maintenance costs of US$ 284,595 and US$ 287,257,

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Table 6 Summary of maintenance activities under cost minimization (stochastic case) Treatment option Area of treatments (m2) 2000 0 (Do-nothing) 1 (Routine) 2 (Surface treatment) 3 (Minor rehabilitation) 4 (Major rehabilitation) % of total area treated Maintenance cost (US$) Network ave. PSR before treatment Network ave. PSR after treatment Standard deviation of PSR 272,699 67,908 21,700 0 0 24.73 26,769 3.16 3.33 0.000 2001 253,808 85,779 22,720 0 0 29.95 26,049 3.15 3.35 0.020 2002 256,794 95,522 9991 0 0 29.12 32,543 3.16 3.32 0.027 2003 280,085 75,222 7000 0 0 22.69 30,168 3.13 3.27 0.031 2004 253,849 101,458 7000 0 0 29.94 29,915 3.09 3.24 0.035 2005 240,723 98,210 23,374 0 0 33.56 28,932 3.07 3.27 0.040 2006 300,700 55,223 6384 0 0 17.00 17,771 3.10 3.19 0.042 2007 327,762 34,545 0 0 0 9.53 18,372 3.01 3.04 0.044 2008 305,614 49,819 6874 0 0 15.65 13,609 2.87 2.93 0.047 2009 331,192 31,115 0 0 0 8.59 10,907 2.75 2.78 0.049

0.39

36.0

Pavement Condition (Deterministic) -34.80

Total Maintenance Cost ($M)...

0.37

34.4

Pavement Condition (Stochastic) -34.22

0.35 32.8

Cumulative PSR

0.33

31.2

Maintenance Cost (Stochastic) -US$ 287,257

0.31 29.6

0.29

28.0

Maintenance Cost (Deterministic)- US$ 284,595

0.27 0 26.4 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Number of Generations
Fig. 9. Convergence curve of bi-objective model.

respectively. The network performances delivered by these two maintenance plans are 34.80 and 34.22, respectively. In order to evaluate the performances of the bi-objective maintenance plans developed by the deterministic and stochastic formulations, the pavement performance curve and pavement deterioration curve in Fig. 10 were developed. The pavement performance curve displays the average network PSR value before treatment and after treatment for each year of the 10-year maintenance period. Due to the stochastic nature of pavement deterioration, the 90% condence level is also included for both the pavement performance and pavement deterioration curves. From Fig. 10, it can be seen that the bi-objective models exhibit similar traits as the single-objective counterparts. That is, the rst several years of the planning period have steadily increasing pavement performance values. This is similar to the pavement performance curves of the pavement performance maximization objective. As the bi-objective model also attempts to satisfy the cost minimization objective, after the sixth year, when the pavement network reaches its maximum condition, the average network performance level starts to decrease. This is similar to the pavement performance curves of the cost minimization objective. Similar

P. Chootinan et al. / Transportation Research Part A 40 (2006) 725743

Deterioration Lower Deterioration Upper Performance Mean Deterministic Performance Deterioration Mean Performance Lower Performance Upper

741

4.500

Network Average PSR

4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Year
Fig. 10. Performance of pavement under bi-objective model.

to the pavement performance curves, the bi-objective budget allocation of Fig. 11 mimics the budget allocation of the performance maximization objective in the rst ve years and the cost minimization objective in the last ve years. Similar to the results of single-objective models, a larger amount of maintenance cost is required for the stochastic formulation. Investigation of the treatment scheme summarized in Tables 7 and 8 indicates that the deterministic formulation treated a larger area of pavement, where as the stochastic formulation treated less area of pavement with a higher level of treatment. A maintenance cost increase of US$ 1308 from the deterministic formulation to the stochastic formulation is required to sustain comparable PSR values. In general, the following observations can be made about the bi-objective results:

0.06

Budget US$ 61,410

Annual Maintenance Cost ($M)...

0.05

0.04
Deterministic

0.03

Stochastic

0.02

0.01

0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year
Fig. 11. Budget allocation under bi-objective model.

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Table 7 Summary of maintenance activities under bi-objective model (deterministic case) Treatment option Area of treatments (m2) 2000 0 (Do-nothing) 1 (Routine) 2 (Surface treatment) 3 (Minor rehabilitation) 4 (Major rehabilitation) % of total area treated Maintenance cost (US$) Network ave. PSR before treatment Network ave. PSR after treatment 170,240 151,222 40,845 0 0 53.01 59,816 3.16 3.50 2001 162,132 171,706 28,469 0 0 55.25 54,722 3.32 3.64 2002 188,336 143,596 30,375 0 0 48.02 50,602 3.46 3.73 2003 186,209 142,238 33,860 0 0 48.60 52,903 3.55 3.84 2004 126,764 214,634 20,909 0 0 65.01 57,586 3.66 3.99 2005 154,737 193,696 13,874 0 0 57.29 48,288 3.81 4.07 2006 193,889 161,418 7000 0 0 46.48 36,879 3.89 4.08 2007 259,813 94,500 7994 0 0 28.29 24,461 3.91 3.99 2008 309,660 52,647 0 0 0 14.53 10,346 3.82 3.85 2009 362,307 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 3.68 3.68

Table 8 Summary of maintenance activities under bi-objective model (stochastic case) Treatment option Area of treatments (m2) 2000 0 (Do-nothing) 1 (Routine) 2 (Surface treatment) 3 (Minor rehabilitation) 4 (Major rehabilitation) % of total area treated Maintenance cost (US$) Network ave. PSR before treatment Network ave. PSR after treatment Standard deviation of PSR 194,584 118,429 49,294 0 0 46.29 59,598 3.16 3.47 0.000 2001 172,340 154,764 35,203 0 0 52.43 56,355 3.28 3.61 0.019 2002 181,524 156,010 24,773 0 0 49.90 48,913 3.42 3.73 0.026 2003 148,083 186,343 27,881 0 0 59.13 57,165 3.55 3.86 0.027 2004 151,963 173,540 36,804 0 0 58.06 61,224 3.68 4.02 0.029 2005 152,529 183,948 25,830 0 0 57.90 55,183 3.84 4.13 0.032 2006 227,774 134,533 0 0 0 37.13 26,437 3.96 4.10 0.037 2007 246,176 116,131 0 0 0 32.05 22,821 3.92 4.00 0.039 2008 315,411 46,896 0 0 0 12.94 9,216 3.83 3.85 0.043 2009 362,307 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 3.68 3.68 0.045

1. The deterministic formulation underestimates the pavement deterioration resulting in a reduced maintenance cost throughout the planning period. This underestimation of maintenance cost translates to a cost dierence of US$ 42 per lane-mile of roadway. 2. Maintenance activities of the stochastic formulation require a larger amount of maintenance cost. This indicates that the deterministic formulation underestimates the pavement deterioration; thus, underestimates the required maintenance cost. 3. On average, the stochastic formulation applies a higher level of treatment in order to maintain comparable pavement performance values. This led to 9.0% more of Type 2 treatment being applied in the stochastic formulation when compared to the deterministic formulation.

5. Summary and conclusion In order to address the growing concerns of pavement management at the network level, accounting for uncertainty in pavement maintenance programming is essential. Based on the results of this study, it is evident that the pavement maintenance programming models using a deterministic formulation for the development of pavement maintenance plan underestimate the level of pavement deterioration in future years. A direct result of this is the underestimation of the required maintenance cost and the overestimation of the expected pavement performance. By accounting for uncertainty, in the form of prediction error, multi-year pavement maintenance plans can more accurately predict the future needs of the pavement network.

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Through the development of the simulation-optimization framework proposed in this paper, PMS can develop multi-year pavement maintenance programs that can account for uncertainty in the prediction process. While accounting for uncertainty, a wide range of PMS objectives can be implemented into the framework while utilizing existing deterioration models. This allows for simple adoption of these methods since existing PMS procedures do not need to change. In addition to the needs of PMS, decision makers are allowed to limit the probability or risk that the selected maintenance plan would fail to maintain the required levels of performance. This allows for the generation of maintenance plan alternatives that account for various degrees of risk. Acknowledgement This research is supported by the Community/University Research Initiative (CURI) grant from the State of Utah. References
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