2002 Regional Growth Forecast 2000 2030

Regional Growth Forecast
2000-2030
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
POPULATION HOUSING EMPLOYMENT
200,000
100,000
0
Santa Barbara County
1940 70555
1950 98220
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
173600 264324 298694 369608 399347 461900 504400 521000
26 Castilian Drive P.O. Box 8208 Goleta, CA 93118-8208 Phone: 805-961-8900 Fax: 805-961-8901 www.sbcag.org
2002 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

SUPERVISORS Member NAOMI SCHWARTZ SUSAN ROSE GAIL MARSHALL (Chair) JONI GRAY TOM URBANSKE Supervisorial District FIRST DISTRICT SECOND DISTRICT THIRD DISTRICT FOURTH DISTRICT FIFTH DISTRICT
CITIES BUELLTON CARPINTERIA GUADALUPE LOMPOC SANTA BARBARA SANTA MARIA
Member RUSS HICKS Councilman RICHARD WEINBERG Councilman KENNETH WESTALL Councilman DICK DEWEES Councilman GREGG HART Councilman LAURENCE LAVAGNINO (Vice-Chair) Councilman ED ANDRISEK Mayor
Alternate DIANE WHITEHAIR Mayor Pro Tem DONNA JORDAN Councilwoman SAM ARCA Mayor JANICE KELLER Councilman DAN SECORD Councilman BOB ORACH Councilman KEN PALMER Mayor Pro Tem
SOLVANG
TECHNICAL PLANNING ADVISORY COMMITTEE 2002 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER

JURISDICTION BUELLTON MEMBER RAY SEVERN Director Planning Department PAUL KERMOYAN Director Community Development EDWARD WOHLENBERG Interim City Manager SAM ANGULO Director Public Works Department ARLEEN T. PELSTER Director Community Development LIZ LIMON (Chair) Senior Planner II Community Development Department JIM STERN Assistant Director Community Development Department GEORGE HANSEN Director Planning Department JEREMY KROUT Planner Planning Department PEGGY WOODS Associate Planner JOHN LEDBETTER Principal Planner Community Development Department BILL SHIPSEY (Vice-Chair) Planner II ALTERNATE LINDA REID Planning Technician DAVE DURFLINGER City Manager
CARPINTERIA
GOLETA GUADALUPE 0 LOMPOC
SANTA BARBARA
SANTA MARIA
SOLVANG
JEFF EDWARDS Deputy City Engineer
COUNTY OF SANTA BARBARA JOHN CUYKENDALL Planner Comprehensive Planning DEV VRAT Supervising Planner Comprehensive Planning
2002 TPAC Membership Roster
SPECIAL DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVES

MEMBER AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT RON TAN Air Quality Specialist, Supervisory BOBBIE BRATZ Air Quality Specialist, Supervisory ALTERNATE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS MICHAEL G. POWERS Deputy Director, Planning
PROJECT STAFF
Bill DerrickExecutive Director Michael G. Powers.Deputy Director, Planning Brian Bresolin..Regional Analyst, Author
March 2002
The preparation of this report was financed in part by the Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration planning funds.
TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES DIAGRAM LIST OF MAPS GROWTH FORECAST SUMMARY CHAPTER I OVERVIEW Introduction Purpose of Growth Forecast Resource Constraints Structure of Forecast Model Geography CHAPTER II POPULATION FORECAST Introduction Births and Mortality State and County Birth Trends Historical Trends Birth and School Enrollment Births by Ethnicity Birth Rates by Jurisdiction Mortality Rates Forecast Births and Mortality Migration Age Structure Components of the Population Forecast Total Population Forecast Group Quarters Forecast Household Population Forecast CHAPTER III EMPLOYMENT FORECAST Introduction Overview of Employment Forecast of Countywide Employment Growth Employment by Economic Sector Allocation of Existing and Forecast Employment to Subregions Page I III V IX IX 1-11 1 1 1 2 5 7 7 7 11 14 16 17 18 21 25 28 33 33 42 43
45 45 46 48 53
CHAPTER IV CONSTRAINTS Introduction Development Potential Rate of Residential Construction Non-Residential (Employment based) Land Use Consumption Household Size Density Household Size Trends Forecasting Change in Household Size Workers Per Household CHAPTER V JOBS HOUSING RELATIONSHIP Introduction Existing Jobs Housing Relationship Future Jobs Housing Relationship CHAPTER VI FORECAST COMPARISONS AND GROWTH POLICY Introduction State Population Projections DOF Methodology Overview City Population Forecasts by SBCAG Current City Population Estimates by DOF County Planning 2030 Projections Household Size Births Deaths and Migration Regional Growth Policy APPENDIX I APPENDIX II APPENDIX III FORECAST OVERVIEW FOR THE NEWLY INCORPORATED CITY OF GOLETA PUBLIC AND TECHNICAL REVIEW PROCESS REFERENCES
64 64 69 74 80 82 83 93 96 97 100 103 103 105 106 108 108 109 109 110 112 116 117
II
LIST OF TABLES Page TABLE 2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6 2-7 2-8 2-9 2-10 2-11 2-12 2-13 3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 3-7 3-8 3-9 3-10 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-9 4-10 Births by Zip Code Areas School Enrollment Grades K-12, 1989-1999 and 2000 Age Specific Birth Rates 1996 Mortality By Zip Code Births and Mortality For Cities, 2000-2030 Births and Mortality For Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030 Total Population Forecast, Subregions, Cities, and Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030 Numerical Change for Forecast Periods, Subregions, Cities, Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030 Percent Change, 2000-2030, Subregions, Cities and Unincorporated Areas Historical and Forecast Total Population Change, For Cities And Unincorporated Areas, 1980-2030 Group Quarters, 2000-2030 Household Population Forecast, 2000-2030 Change in Household Population, 2000-2030 Self Employed Workers, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 (Estimated) Countywide Economic Growth by Sector, 2000-2030 Subregion Employment, 2000-2030 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector, 2000 and 2005 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector, 2010 and 2015 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector, 2020 and 2025 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector, 2030 Job Distribution by Sector, South Coast and Santa Ynez, 2000-2030 Job Distribution by Sector, Lompoc and Santa Maria, 2000-2030 Countywide Job Distribution 2000-2030 Theoretical Potential Additional Residential Units at Buildout Potential For Future Industrial, Commercial, and Retail Dev. Assumed Maximum Five Year Increment, Housing Construction Ceiling, 2000-2030 Potential Residential Units, 2000-2030 Summary of Remaining Housing Unit Capacity After the 2030 Forecast Period Percentage of Total Employment Forecast That Requires New Land Existing and Forecast Employment Densities Census 2000 Household Size Estimates Influence of Household Size on Population Growth III 11 14 17 19 22 23 34 35 36 41 42 43 44 46 52 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 67 70 71 72 74 79 80 81
4-11 4-12 4-13 4-14 4-15 4-16 4-17 4-18 6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5
Percent Spanish Origin in Cities, Places, 1990 and 2000 Department of Finance Housing Unit Composition for 2000 Household Size Matrix Household Size Forecast Household Forecast Workers Per Household, 2000-2030 Increase In Workers, 2000-2030 Increase In Workers, Five Year Periods, 2000-2030 Population Growth, Department of Finance And RGF 2000 Comparison Department of Finance Numerical/Percent Population Change for Tri-Counties and State of California Comparison of Previous Forecasts with 1990 and 2000 Census Data RGF 94 and Department of Finance Household Size Comparison for 2000 Annual Demographic Changes RGF 2000 and Department Of Finance LIST OF FIGURES
85 87 90 91 92 93 94 95 105 106 108 110 110
FIGURE
1-1 1-2 2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6 2-7 2-8 2-9 2-10 2-11 2-12 2-13 2-14 2-15 2-16 2-17 2-18 2-19 2-20
Elements of the Forecast Model Santa Barbara County, Subregions Births for Santa Barbara County, and the State of California Distribution of Births by Subregion, 1999 1999 Births for Cities and Unincorporated Total Age of Mothers Giving Birth 1970-1995 Births to Teenage Mothers in 1999, For Cities and Total Unincorporated Births by Mothers of Hispanic Origin, Santa Barbara County 1982-1996 Mortality for Santa Barbara County, and State of California, 1970-1996 Mortality and Race/Ethnicity, Santa Barbara County, 1995 Department of Finance, Statewide Births 1970-2005 Countywide Births and Mortality from 2000-2030 DOF Components of Population Growth, For Santa Barbara County, Births, Deaths and Migration RGF Components of Population Growth, For Santa Barbara County, Births, Deaths, Migration Santa Barbara County Age distribution, 2000 Santa Barbara County Age Distribution, 2030 Santa Barbara County Age Distribution, 2000-2030 Santa Barbara Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 Carpinteria Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 Santa Maria Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 Lompoc Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 Santa Ynez Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030
4 6 8 9 10 12 13 16 18 20 21 24 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 32 33
IV
2-21 Population Growth for Subregions, Cities, and Unincorporated Areas 2-22 Total Population Distribution, Subregions 2-23 Countywide Population Growth, 1940-2030 2-24 Large City Population Growth, 1940-2030 2-25 Small City Population Growth, 1950-2030 3-1 Countywide Wage and Salary Employment 1972-2030 3-2 Santa Barbara County, Non-farm Private Employment, 1970-1995 3-3 Santa Barbara County, Government Employment, 1970-1995 3-4 Employment By Sector, 1983, 1999 and 2030 4-1 Distribution of Housing Unit Theoretical Buildout Capacity, By Subregions, (33,000 Residential Units) 4-2 Distribution of Non-Residential Theoretical Buildout Capacity, by Subregion (32 million square feet) 4-3 Countywide Theoretical Housing Unit Constraints 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-9 4-10 4-11 4-12 4-13 4-14 4-15 4-16 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-5 5-4 Housing Units Developed From 2000-2030, vs. Buildout by Subregion Employment Based Lane Use Requirements 2000-2030, South Coast Employment Based Land Use Requirements, 2000-2030, Santa Maria and Lompoc Valley Employment Based Lane Use Requirements 2000-2030, Santa Ynez Valley Employment Based Lane Use Requirements 2000-2030, by Subregion Forecast Use vs. Buildout of Available Land, For Commercial, Industrial, and Retail, by Subregion 2000-2030 Historic 1960-1990 and Forecast 1990-2015 Household Sizes Overcrowded Units For Santa Barbara County Jurisdictions In 1990 Household Size for Hispanic, and Total Population in 1990 Santa Barbara County Births of Hispanic Origin, 1982-1996 Housing Type Composition, 1990 Components of Family Households, In Santa Barbara County, 1990 Components of Non-Family Households, In Santa Barbara County, 1990 Inter-County Workers, 1990 Census Workers, Jobs, and Housing in 2000, by Subregion Workers, Jobs, and Housing in 2030, by Subregion Workers, Jobs and Housing growth 2000-2030, By Subregion Workers, Jobs, and Housing, Existing, 2000-2030, And Buildout Combined, by Subregion Worker Job and Housing Growth, Countywide, 20002030
37 38 38 39 40 47 49 49 50,51 66 68 69 73 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 86 88 89 97 98 99 100 101 102
6-1 6-2 6-3
RGF and Department of Finance 2040 Population Year 2000 Forecast Comparison, From RGF 1985, 1989, 1994 and 2000 Census Census 2000, RGF 2030 and Department of Finance 2040 Age Distributions LIST OF DIAGRAMS
104 106 108
2-1
Components of the Cohort Survival Model LIST OF MAPS
20
2-1 2-1
Santa Barbara County Subregions Santa Barbara County School Districts
8 15
VI
Santa Barbara County Association of Governments
Forecast of Population Employment Land Use 2000-2030
Forecast Structure
Regional Growth Forecast 2000 (RGF 2000) presents forecasts between 2000 and 2030 for Santa Barbara County its major economic regions and and demographic its eight The The purpose of the forecast is to provide a set of consistent,
countywide forecasts to the year 2030 for use in long range The input
comprehensive planning. forecast will serve as
incorporated
cities.
population forecast is prepared for all the incorporated cities and the unincorporated areas surrounding them such as
towards development of:
Traffic forecasts Air quality plans Regional housing needs estimates Growth policy
Santa Maria City and the Orcutt Valley. A population forecast
for the City of Goleta is also included. The employment A long range forecast is a requirement of the Federal Highway Administration for long range transportation planning.
forecast is prepared for larger regions which include both the cities and unincorporated areas together.
Forecast 2000-Summary
forecast
is
complex
process. To simplify the process it is divided into three distinct sections.
The population forecast starts with the 2000 Census to estimate population by age group. Birth rates are applied to women of childbearing age to estimate new births while death rates by age group result in population reduction. During each five year period women give birth and people die and the population as a whole ages over time so a person born in the year 2000 will be 30 years of age in 2030. The employment forecast extends a countywide historical trend of wage and salary jobs. New jobs are distributed to subregions in future forecast periods using existing known proportions. The forecast is by major job classifications such as construction and services. The constraints section limits the potential rate and availability of new housing by assessing the potential number of new units based on local land use plans. The constraints category also converts population growth from the population forecast into housing demand by assuming a persons per household density factor. These factors change over time accounting for increased density. The constraints category limits the population forecast through the availability of housing.
Population Forecast
Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara City of Goleta Carp - Uninc. SB - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc - Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM - Uninc. Guad. - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total Total Unincorporated Total City 2000 201,000 14,200 89,600 27,500 4,900 64,900 58,300 41,100 17,200 116,800 77,400 5,700 33,300 400 21,800 5,300 12,700 3,800 1,400 399,000 162,000 237,000 2005 208,900 14,800 90,500 29,900 5,200 68,500 65,500 43,500 22,000 134,200 87,900 5,900 39,500 700 25,300 5,900 14,000 5,400 1,300 436,000 181,000 255,000 2010 216,800 15,000 92,700 32,300 5,600 71,200 68,600 44,900 23,800 148,400 96,800 6,000 44,700 700 27,100 6,300 15,000 5,800 1,400 462,000 195,000 268,000 2015 224,900 15,300 94,900 33,000 5,900 75,800 71,100 46,100 25,000 162,800 105,900 6,200 50,200 800 27,200 6,300 15,100 5,800 1,400 488,000 207,000 281,000 2020 232,100 15,500 97,200 33,400 6,200 79,700 72,300 47,200 25,100 171,600 110,800 6,400 53,600 800 27,200 6,300 15,100 5,800 1,400 505,000 215,000 289,000 2025 236,300 15,800 99,400 33,900 6,600 80,500 73,700 48,500 25,200 174,100 112,700 6,500 54,200 800 27,300 6,300 15,100 5,900 1,500 513,000 218,000 295,000 2030 240,500 16,000 101,700 34,300 6,900 81,400 75,100 49,900 25,300 176,200 113,700 6,700 54,900 900 27,400 6,300 15,200 5,900 1,600 521,000 221,000 300,000
Population over the 2000-2030 period is forecast to increase by 121,000 persons or 30% countywide. The South Coast is forecast to experience an increase in population of 39,500 or 20%. The North County is forecast to experience an increase of 82,000 persons or 41%. The Unincorporated areas of Orcutt and the Goleta valley (including the new City of Goleta) are forecast to increase 65% and 25% respectively. The City of Goleta population forecast is also addressed in the appendix. Population in the north county is forecast to surpass the South Coast by 2005.
Lompoc Valley 14% Santa Maria/ Cuyama Valley 34% South Coast 47% Santa Ynez Valley 5%
2030 Population Distribution 521,000 Total
Population Forecast
600,000
500,000
Historical and Forecast Growth Rates

1940-1950 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 39% 77% 52% 13% 24% 8% 15% 9% 3%
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1940 70500
1950 98000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
174000 264000 299000 370000 399000 462000 505000 521000
Since 1940, the 1950-1960 period was the decade of the greatest population increase, a substantial 77% increase in population. The increase for 1990-2000 was substantially less at 8% for the ten year period. The growth rate is forecast to fall further still, approaching just 3% between 2020-2030.
120,000 100,000 Population 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 20 20 30
South Coast cities of Carpinteria, Santa Barbara and Goleta are forecast to increase in population over the 20002030 period by 13, 15 and 24 percent respectively. North County city growth is greater as illustrated below: Santa Maria Buellton Guadalupe Lompoc Solvang 47% 55% 17% 21% 22%
Santa Maria
Lompoc
Santa Barbara
Goleta
18,000 16,000 14,000 Population 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Carpinteria Solvang Buellton Guadalupe
Population Forecast
The map below shows the year 2000 population proportions (in the black pie section) as well as the population change from 2000-2030 (shown in the white pie section) for cities and unincorporated areas. The 2030 total population number is also provided adjacent to each pie figure. The newly incorporated City of Goleta population forecast is discussed in Appendix l.
City of Guadalupe 6,700 Total
City of Santa Maria 113,700 Total
Unincorporated Santa Maria Valley/Orcutt 56,000 Total
Unincorporated Cuyama Valley 1,600 Total
Unincorporated Lompoc Valley 25,300 Total
Unincorporated Santa Ynez Valley 15,200 Total
City of Buellton 5,900 Total
City of Lompoc 49,900 Total
City of Solvang 6,300Total

Unincorporated South C oast 88,300 City of Goleta 34,300
City of Carpinteria 16,000 Total
Population in 2000--black section Population change--2000-2030--white section Size of pie reflects proportion of countywide population in 2030
City of Santa Barbara 101,700 Total
Historic employment data from the State Employment Development Department from 1972-1999 and the short term 2000-2009 forecast provided by the local UCSB Economic Outlook provides the basis for the 2010-2030 forecast employment trend.
300,000 250,000 Employment 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
02 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 29 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26
Employment Forecast
2000-2009 UCSB Economic Forecast Data 1972-1999 Historical Wage and Salary Employment
2010-2030 SBCAG Forecast Employment
State and national economic influences on the county will likely result in a slower short and long term employment growth rate. Slower employment growth is forecast over the long term.
Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Employment 178,000 193,000 205,000 218,000 231,000 244,000 257,000 79,000
Percent Change 2000-2005.8.4% 2005-2010.6.2% 2010-2015.6.3% 2015-2020.6.0% 2020-2025.5.6% 2025-2030.5.3% ..44.0%
2000-2030
In North County, Vandenberg AFB will continue in its importance as new commercial space ventures are implemented in the early part of the forecast. The Santa Maria region will retain its importance as a regional retail-service center and increase its share of total county employment. Lompoc economic development efforts resulted in several major retail centers opening attracting Lompoc Valley residents who previously shopped out of the city and also attract customers from the Santa Ynez Valley increasing sales tax revenue. However, Lompoc is assumed to have only limited success in attracting new industry to its Central Avenue Industrial Park. Lompoc will likely serve as a source of affordable housing for those who work in the South Coast and Santa Ynez Valley, at the same time stimulating the local retail and service economy with these long distance commuters. An estimated 2 million visitors visit Solvang annually and with additional tourist serving facilities more tourists can be accommodated. The city's general plan recognizes potential for additional growth in the tourism industry and allocates ample space to accommodate new growth. The City of Buellton is also poised for additional commercial and retail growth. The county had not issued any new permits in Buellton for several years so there exists some latent demand. The Chumash Casino expansion will likely draw additional day trippers to the Valley. Limited vacant land, and Measure E restrictions will limit the potential for nonresidential development in the Santa Barbara city limits (which includes the Municipal Airport). However, employee densities in downtown Santa Barbara will likely increase due to high rents and maximization of available space. The Goleta area will also experience some growth limits due to the Goleta Growth Management Ordinance 6 Forecast 2000-Summary
Employment Forecast
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
The countywide employment forecast is allocated to subregions using current zip code level employment estimates from the Department of Commerce. This allocation is modified over time based on anticipated major additions or reductions in employment such as a potential expansion of prison facility in Lompoc City or reduction in launches of satellites from Vandenberg AFB.
1 2 3 4 Subarea South Coast Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria 5 6 7
Employment
Employment by SIC in 1999 178,000 Total

Agriculture Mining 9% 1% Construction 4% Manufacturing 10% Transportation & Public Utilities 3% Services 28% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 4% Wholesale Trade 3% Retail Trade 19%
Government 19%
The employment forecast also includes major job categories (Standard Industrial Classification Codes (SIC)) which change over time based on trends and anticipated changes in the economy. The service sector increases in share of employment over time, amounting to 30% of all regional jobs by 2030. Employment by economic sector describes the types of jobs for each county subarea. Agriculture is a major employer in the Santa Maria and Santa Ynez Valley reflecting the growing importance of the wine industry. Mining is becoming less significant countywide as oil and gas development and production decrease. Manufacturing has slowly been recovering from the recession in the early 1990s and is predominantly in the South Coast and Lompoc region. Wholesale and retail trade is also predominant on the South Coast with the recent addition of several big box outlets. Services which includes employment in tourism is the largest sector in the South Coast.

Government 16% Agriculture Mining 8% 0% Construction 9%
Manufacturing 11% Transportation & Public Utilities 2% Wholesale Trade 4% Retail Trade 17%
Services 30%
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 3%
Employment Forecast
The map below shows the 2000 forecast employment proportions (in the black pie section) as well as the employment change from 2000-2030 (shown in the white pie section). The pie size shows the countywide proportion of employment in each subregion for 2030.
Land Use Forecast
Limitations on land availability can effect new residential and employment development. These limitations are used in the forecast model to simulate the effects of local jurisdictions general plans on population growth. The land use data consists of residential land which has not yet been developed and as such, is available for new development. Discussions among technical staff during the preparation of this forecast illustrates the difficulty of quantifying total buildout. These estimates are subject to change and are not precise estimates. Buildout consists of new units on currently vacant land that has residential potential, and, reuse or redevelopment of existing land at higher densities.
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 S. Coast Housing Units
Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Unincorp. Area SB Unincorp. Area Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Unincorp. Area Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Unincorp. Area Guad. Unincorp. Area Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY Unincorp. Area City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total
Maximum Additional Residential Units 10,070 670 3,200 800 5,400 3,790 2,200 1,590 15,070 7,770 550 6,500 250 1,940 450 790 700 1,900 33,000
Maximum residential unit estimates are constrained in each five year period by a construction rate ceiling that does not allow additional new housing beyond the average of units permitted between 1990 and 2000. This rate gives a more realistic simulation of the potential for residential unit growth, reflecting historic permitting activity, local policies, interest rates, and market demand. Over 33,000 units are initially available; however, the assumed construction rate limits the total to 29,600 units over the forecast period.
Maximum Residential Units Capacity 33,000 Units
Residential Construction Ceiling 49,000 Units
Total Available 2000-2030 Period 28,500 Units
S. Ynez Buildout
Santa Maria Developed
Lompoc
The forecast of new residential units compared to the buildout estimates derived from the local land use plans for each subregion shows that there is not much potential for additional units at the end of the forecast period. Several individual jurisdictions not shown in the figure such as the cities of Santa Maria and Buellton reach buildout over the 30 year forecast period as do most unincorporated areas. Forecast 2000-Summary
Land Use Forecast
Square Feet
The forecast of commercial, industrial, and retail employment compared to the ultimate theoretical buildout reveals that the South Coast and Lompoc Subregions may have deficiencies in available space toward the end of the forecast period resulting in higher employment densities, increasing land costs and potential reduction in future job growth. In the City of Santa Barbara Measure E expires in 2010 and presumably additional space may become available. It is assumed that employment densities will increase in deficient areas and additional capacity can be generated through redevelopment. For example, in the Santa Barbara airport business park and the lower State Street area high land costs, increased demand, and appropriate zoning has made it feasible to build higher density projects. With a 20% increase in existing densities for the Santa Barbara Subregion an additional 26,000 jobs can potentially be accommodated.
Subregion South Coast Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria Total County
Existing Jobs 121,800 10,700 21,900 46,100 200,500
Developed Land in Acres 2,240 580 560 4,820 8,190
Employees Per Acre 54.0 18.0 39.0 9.6 24.5
Forecast Compared to Available Space
14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 South Coast Santa Ynez Forecast Lompoc Available Santa Maria
Additional employees will require more housing. In general, household size, which is the number of persons living in a housing unit, is expected to increase, reflecting higher housing costs and demographic changes in ethnicity for example. More workers may live together to afford the cost of housing. Because there are more workers in a housing unit, population may increase without an increase in the overall number of housing units.
10
Births and Mortality

The City of Santa Maria has the highest proportion of countywide births at 28% but it represents only 16% of the countywide population. The City of Santa Barbara has 23% of the births and 23% of the population. The unincorporated area as a whole has 28% of births and 42% of the population.
Percentage of Countywide Births in 1996, 6,000 Total

Santa Maria 28%
Lompoc 13% Guad. 2% Solv. 2% Buell. 1%
Santa Barbara 23% Uninc. 28%
Carp. 4%
The birth and mortality evaluation in the RGF shows the following: The highest proportion of births is in north county and the proportion is increasing. Santa Maria City has the largest percentage of countywide births. Births to women of Hispanic Origin are increasing. Women over 30 years old are giving birth in increasing numbers. Overall mortality rates are in decline. Infant mortality rates are in a decline. Births rates have leveled off but are forecast to increase slightly over the forecast period. Mortality rates are forecast to continue to decline over the forecast period. Countywide birth and mortality rates are remarkably similar to state rates.
11
Births and Mortality

Births eventually lead to enrollment of young children in school. By tracking births one can anticipate future enrollment in local schools. This helps provide information for developing additional educational facilities and infrastructure. From 1989 to 1999 there has been an enrollment increase of 26%, or 13,700 students in K-12 public schools. Enrollment increase varies throughout the county but north county schools experienced the greatest numerical growth (8,200 students) compared to south county with 5,500 more students over the 1989-1999 period. The school district with the largest numerical increase is Santa Maria-Bonita with 2,700 new students. Recently however some school districts within the south coast have seen a decline in enrollment which some attribute to the inability of some families to afford the high cost of housing.
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2005 20002010 20052015 2010Mortality 2020 2015Births 2025 20202030 2025-
Time Period 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
Births 34,000 39,000 42,000 43,000 44,000 44,000
Mortality 13,000 17,000 19,000 20,000 22,000 24,000
Net change 21,000 22,000 23,000 23,000 22,000 20,000
Ethnic change will be an important element of our demographic future. Births by mothers of Hispanic Origin have dramatically increased from 32 to 55% of total births between 1982-1996. The influence of Hispanic births can be seen in the corresponding increase in the number and proportion of Hispanic students enrolled in the various school districts which increased from 30 to 40% from 1985 1997. 12 Forecast 2000-Summary
Migration
10,000
8,000
6,000 Number of Persons
4,000
2,000
-2,000
-4,000 Births
19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 20 01 20 04 20 07 20 10 20 13 20 16 20 19 20 22 20 25 20 28
Year Deaths Net Migration
Migration is another component of population growth. It is considered a long distance move which completely changes a persons activity network. Shorter moves between cities in close proximity are considered residential mobility not migration. Migration is a difficult component to forecast because it varies so dramatically depending on employment opportunities, housing costs and availability etc. In addition, migration data is limited and often does not capture the entire migrant population. The RGF model assumes that because of limited housing and an estimated persons per household density there is a net positive in-migration of approximately 2,000 persons annually until 2005 and 1,000 persons until 2010. From 2010 to 2015 there is no net migration. After 2015 there is a net out-migration pattern continuing through 2030. The forecast beyond 2015 indicates there is not enough housing to accommodate the existing population, the natural increase (due to births minus deaths) and new in-migrants combined.
13
Age
The age distribution of the population is getting older following similar national trends of the aging of the baby boo me r populati on (those born between 1947 and 1964). Co unt ywid e the proportion of those aged 60+ increases from 17% in 2000 to 25% in 2030. Those aged 20-44 decrease in proportion from 36% in 2000 to 30% in 2030. Those aged 45-58 decrease in proportion from 19% in 2000 to 14% in 2030.
Age 45-59 19%
Census 2000 Countywide Age Distribution 399,347 Total Population
Age 60+ 17%
Age 0-19 28%
Age 20-44 36%
Year 2030 Countywide Age Distribution 521,000 Total Population
The change in age distribution can have implications such as a higher demand for health care services for the growing proportion of those aged 60 and over, and for the labor force with the decline of those aged 20-58 which make up the majority of the working population.
Age 60+ 25%
Age 0-19 31%
Age 45-59 14% Age 20-44 30%
14
Forecast Comparisons
The Department of Finance (DOF) population projections from 2000-2040 show some dramatic growth. Population projections are prepared by the DOF under mandate of Government Code, Sections 13073 and 13073.5. In addition, the State Administrative Manual sets the general policy of using the same population projections and demographic data provided by the States Demographic Research Unit for state planning. Therefore, it is important to evaluate these projections in the context of SBCAGs own RGF for consistency of assumptions and results. The DOF 2020 population forecast is 552,600 compared to the RGF forecast of 504,000. From 2000-2030 the DOF projection shows an increase of 246,000 persons or 60 percent, while the RGF 2000 forecast increases by 119,000 persons, or 30 percent. The DOF projection to 2040 shows an increase of 274,000 persons for a county total of 779,000, almost doubling the current 2000 countywide population of 399,000.
900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 Population 500,000 RGF 2000 400,000 300,000 RGF 85 200,000 100,000 Population 0
10 15 50 20 25 30 55 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 40 47 05 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 40 60 35
Department of Finance Projection
Historical RGF 89
RGF 94
Rgf 94
RGF 89
RGF 85
RGF 2000
Department of Finance Percentage Population Change for Tri-Counties and California

Year Santa Barbara Ventura San Luis Obispo California
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2000-2040
13.5% 18.0% 18.9% 18.3% 89.0% 15
13.0% 15.0% 14.8% 13.0% 69.0%
27.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 110.0%
14.0% 13.7% 14.0% 13.0% 69.0% Forecast 2000-Summary
Forecast Comparisons
SY-Uninc City of Buellton City of Solvang Guad.-Uninc SM-Uninc City of Guadalupe City of Santa Maria Lompoc-Uninc City of Lompoc SB-Uninc Carp-Uninc City of Santa Barbara City of Carpinteria 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Census 2000
A comparison of previous Regional Growth Forecasts from 1985, 89, and 94 with Census 2000 shows that for many areas each successive forecast has been revised higher for the year 2000.
80,000
90,000
100,000
RFG 85
RGF 89 Population RGF 94
Recently, the Santa Barbara County Planning and Development Department released a report titled Santa Barbara County 2030 Land and Population: The Potential Effects of Population Growth on Urban and Rural Lands, November 2000. Their trend projects historical 1990-2000 population growth to the year 2030 which is unconstrained by housing availability or economic conditions. Their 2030 countywide population of close to 576,000 persons is higher than the draft SBCAG 2030 forecast of 521,000 persons by 10% or about 55,000 persons. Because it was recently incorporated the City of Buellton was only included in the Regional Growth Forecast 1994.
16
Regional Growth Policy

Is there a regional growth policy addressing some of the challenges outlined in the growth forecast? Currently, no. What should SBCAGs role be in addressing a topic that is complex and controversial and an area that is historically the primary responsibility of local jurisdictions? While land use decisions are the primary responsibility of local cities and the county, many of them have regional consequences. While some of these regional impacts are positive, some can be detrimental to the region. Should SBCAG take a more active role in promoting a dialogue on growth policy to identify and address the regionally significant issues? Perhaps yes. The 2030 regionwide forecast prepared by SBCAG identifies challenges facing the region. To address the challenges discussed throughout this report it is recommended that SBCAG and its member agencies consider and adopt regional growth policies. The recommended policies are identified below. 1. 2. 3. 4. The Regional Growth Forecast 2000-2030 should be endorsed and used by SBCAG and local jurisdictions as a baseline forecast, subject to review and revision as necessary. This baseline growth forecast will respect existing general plans to illustrate the implications of regional growth assumptions on population growth. SBCAG should take a more active role in facilitating discussion of regional growth forecasts, its issues, and if desired, policies. Local agencies with excess commercial and industrially zoned land should evaluate their General Plans to consider the correspondence of local job development potential with regional and local resource capacity, e.g., water and housing sites, to support job growth. The Cities of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria, UCSB, and the County should continue to address the regional implications of additional employment in the South Coast area on the regional housing market and cities in the South Coast and north county area. The region needs to examine the impacts of high housing costs and aging workforce on the ability to sustain employment growth and accommodate increasing long distance commutes. Due to the long term jobs-housing imbalance local and state jurisdictions in the South Coast should consider concurrent phasing of new commercial, retail, industrial development with residential development to be consistent with a balance of jobs and housing. The County should study the implications of winery and greenhouse agricultural development on the housing needs of cities and unincorporated areas. Local agencies are encouraged to use techniques to improve inter-jurisdictional coordination. Such techniques may include, but are not limited to joint city-county planning commission meetings, joint city-county specific plans, and regular referral of environmental reports and plans to adjoining agencies. The ability of local government to accommodate forecast growth has recently become more problematic due to income shifts between the state, local government, and special districts. These income shifts result in reduced incentives to approve development which does not generate sales tax. This may result in increased competition for those uses which generate sales taxes. The SBCAG Board should consider addressing these growing fiscal inequities on a regional basis and range from simply monitoring state legislative proposals to mediation of disputes between member agencies such as jobs housing balance issues. 17 Forecast 2000-Summary
5.
6.
7. 8.
9.
Forecast Assumptions
According to forecasts prepared by the State of California and the Southern California Association of Governments, significant increases in the population of Hispanics is anticipated. It is likely these changes will also affect the socioeconomic characteristics of Santa Barbara County. Birth rates for women under 30 years of age remain constant while those between 30 and 40 will continue to rise slightly. Mortality rates for all age groups will decline slightly. Total deaths, however, generally increase as more of the population becomes elderly and the population as a whole is larger. A growing proportion of the population may reside in multifamily units, due to the high cost of housing. Even with sufficient land for urban use, pressures will always exist for the conversion of certain agricultural parcels to more intensive uses. However, local agency general plans and the Coastal Act have policies to preserve agriculture as both an important contribution to the economy and to provide regional open space. Because of these policies, this growth forecast presumes no conversion of lands with a general plan designation of agriculture. However, land currently in agriculture, but designated residential, is included in the buildout estimate. In the South Coast region the business community will likely experience increased difficulty in recruiting workers due to lack of affordable housing in the area. The cities of Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, and Carpinteria are assumed to be successful in implementing downtown redevelopment projects. Reuse of existing parcels will play an important role in satisfying demand for commercial-retail lands in Santa Barbara, Carpinteria and Lompoc Improvements to access from the beach to downtown Santa Barbara will encourage reuse and intensification of commercial and industrial property between the Freeway and the ocean. In the Santa Ynez Valley the economy will continue to be largely based on tourism and agriculture, however, the increased cost of housing will result in more workers commuting from Lompoc and Santa Maria. In the Lompoc region local economic growth will still be largely dependent on activities at Vandenberg AFB. Forecast 2000 assumes that future moderate size commercial space/defense programs will be developed at VAFB but the programs will be much smaller than the Space Shuttle program. Santa Maria City is assumed to be successful in capitalizing on its role as a regional economic center serving northern Santa Barbara County and southern San Luis Obispo County. However, there will be increased competition for retail development from San Luis Obispo County and other areas. Substantial growth is projected for all northern Santa Barbara County resulting in a continued shift in the population to North County. This will also help sustain Santa Marias role as the largest city in north county as a regional shopping center.
18
Chapter 1 Overview
Introduction Santa Barbara County, Regional Growth Forecast 2000 presents a forecast of population, employment, and land use to the year 2030 for Santa Barbara County, its major economic and demographic regions, and its seven incorporated cities. Hereafter it is referred to as the Regional Growth Forecast, or the RGF 2000. Purpose of Growth Forecast The purpose of the Regional Growth Forecast is to provide a consistent countywide forecast to the year 2030 for use in long range comprehensive planning. The forecast will serve as input towards the development of: traffic forecasts, air quality impact analysis, housing demand for Housing Elements of General Plans, and demand estimates for sewer treatment plants and other facilities. In addition, the forecast assists in making the State Department of Housing and Community Development regional housing needs allocations to the subcounty level. The housing needs by income level are required as part of each jurisdictions housing element of their general plan. Also important is the use of the forecast as a database for social service agencies, marketing studies, and for analysis of growth related issues. Particular attention should be given to the changing demographics of the county and its effect on public services such as education, childcare, health care, labor force availability, and housing. The SBCAG board adopted previous Regional Growth Forecasts in 1985, 1989 and 1994. The forecast is updated as new data or policy changes occur to ensure it provides the most accurate assessment of future growth. For example, the current RGF 2000 will integrate updated data from the recent census as available. Local jurisdictions modify and revise land use plans and growth management policies that also impact long-range forecasts. Periodic review of these land use and policy changes is conducted to determine if revisions to the forecast are necessary. A review occurred in 1997 of the previous RGF 1994 focusing on land use revisions by local general plan updates. In addition, the California State Department of Finance provides estimates of current population in May of each year that helps track the short-term accuracy of the forecast. Resource Constraints A forecast of employment, population, and housing for Santa Barbara County must recognize a series of limitations to growth that include land and resource constraints. The lack of available land for residential, commercial, retail, and industrial uses can act as a constraint to development and growth. The integrity of the local comprehensive land use plans is respected in the growth forecast although they may be subject to change over the forecast period. Later sections discuss how these limitations are quantified and incorporated into the forecast as constraints to new housing and employment. Since the last forecast was adopted in 1994, the recent abundance of rainfall, and the access to state water have reduced the existing and anticipated water supply constraints to urban residential development. However, the overall picture is far from clear. On the South Coast, in 1992, the City of Santa Barbara adopted a Long Term Water Supply Program and EIR that identified adequate supplies to serve residential and commercial buildout under the General Plan. However, concerns exist in regions such as Goleta where users were taking more out of ground water basins than was being naturally recharged. However, with the arrival of State Water there is an adequate supply to meet existing and approved development as well as future demand. 1 Forecast 2000
The Montecito Water District has secured supplemental water supply via the State Water Project and implemented long-term water efficiency programs. The nearly 25-year water shortage emergency and water moratorium and associated restrictions were officially terminated. Water supply in North County is also limited, although the problems are different. Overdrafting of groundwater basins occurs in North County where agriculture represents the majority of the demand. Even with the availability of imported State Water, overdrafting is expected to continue. It represents a major policy issue affecting the future economic and environmental health of the County. Because the effects of water supply constraints are uncertain, this forecast does not limit maximum potential development based on water supply since staff was unable to predict the specific impact of water shortages on new development. It is both conceptually and technically infeasible to incorporate many variables in a forecast. In this effort some are omitted from quantitative examination. One such example is the direct examination of the cost of housing versus the ability of new in-migrants and existing resident renters to pay this cost. Other factors such as sphere of influence determinations by LAFCO, local and regional circulation problems, and deficient public facilities and services can also affect the rate and amount of growth. These individual factors were not evaluated in the forecast. The RGF 2000 assumes that no major natural, or man made disasters, e.g., catastrophic earthquakes, will significantly disrupt the area during the forecast period. While our seismic history suggests that a significant seismic event could occur during the forecast period of 30 years, it is beyond the ability of the forecaster to foresee the magnitude and impacts of such an event. Structure of Forecast Model Forecasting population, employment and land use is a complex process. To simplify this process the forecast is disaggregated into three submodels; 1) population, 2) employment, and 3) constraints. The constraints model links the population and employment models. The population model provides population forecasts for Santa Barbara County, each of five subregions, and each of the seven cities within the county. Chapter II describes in detail the results of the population forecast. The forecast spans the period 2000 to 2030. It uses 1990 census data as a baseline, and is calibrated using 1990 to 2000 population, housing and demographic estimates from the Department of Finance and other sources such as the State Department of Health for birth and mortality rates. For each 5 year forecast period and geographic region, the model forecasts male and female population by five-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, etc.). Another variable in the population model is net migration. The model receives input in the form of migrants coming Santa Barbara County. In-migrants may arrive in search of a new job, education, or other reasons. Out-migrants leave due to lack of housing or employment. Migrants are either added or subtracted from the existing population that age over time. The population model also adds new births and subtracts out deaths to the population by applying age specific birth and mortality rates. Every 5 years the age group is advanced, or aged, so that over time someone born in 2000 will be 30 years of age in 2030.
Forecast 2000
The population model also contains a separate assessment of the "fixed aged" population residing at institutions such as the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB). This institution generally cycles people in-and-out of school on a rotating basis so that the population does not generally age, as does the population that stays in the area for a longer period. The "group quarters" population is also forecast separately since it contains a special population, e.g., correctional facilities, dormitories, and group care homes. This group quarters population does not utilize conventional housing units. They are not considered part of the household population that requires a housing unit. The employment model forecasts the number and type of jobs for each subregion by five-year increments (2000, 2005, etc.). Chapter III describes in detail results of the employment model. The countywide employment forecast is based on an assessment of economic trends and historical employment data. The countywide forecast is then allocated to subregions and economic sectors based on zip code level employment data. There is no employment forecast for individual cities and unincorporated areas. Commercial, retail and industrial land availability, as derived from the local community land use plans, is taken into consideration as a potential limiting factor. The forecast also estimates the potential increase in the workforce, due to more women entering the labor force etc. The constraints model limits the potential rate and buildout of residential development and may therefore limit new housing available for those in-migrants who arrive to take new jobs or persons who are born in the area and wish to stay. Chapter III describes in detail the results of the constraints model. The constraints model places a limit on the rate at which new housing is developed and a ceiling on the "ultimate" buildout of each jurisdiction. This ultimate buildout is based on the potential for additional housing as allowed by the community land use plans of each jurisdiction. Discussions between technical staff during the preparation of this forecast illustrate the difficulty of quantifying total buildout. These estimates are subject to change and are not precise estimates. Buildout consists of new units on currently vacant land that has residential potential, and, reuse or redevelopment of existing land at higher densities. As population (from the population model) increases (due to new births minus deaths and net migration), they are converted into households by assuming a certain number of persons per household. The constraints model limits new housing supply. For areas where the supply falls short of demand, population is allocated elsewhere to other jurisdictions within Santa Barbara County or to Ventura or San Luis Obispo County. The constraints model links the employment model to the population model by the generation of new workers who are able to fill the new jobs estimated in the employment model. New workers occur due to a variety of factors such as more women entering the labor force, new in-migrants, and a natural increase of younger workers while some workers retire and leave the labor force. The constraints model balances the available housing units, with the workers (using a workers per household density), and population (using a household size density). Figure 1-1 describes the characteristics of the population, employment, and constraints models. Each of the factors relies on a considerable amount of data and assumptions to produce a 30-year forecast. Much of the accompanying texts in the following chapters describe these assumptions as well as the forecast results.
Forecast 2000
Figure 1-1 Elements of the Forecast Model
POPULATION Component
Aging Population for Cities and Unincorporated Areas. Group Quarters: Vandenberg AFB, UCSB Dorms, U.S. Penn.
Methodology
Births, Deaths, Net Migration, for each 5 year period. Program changes and constant proportion.
CONSTRAINTS Component
Provide a ceiling on total new development.
Methodology
Potential increase in housing, population and employment limited by buildout of General Plans and persons/workers per household. Historical permit activity or policy based limits.
Limit new residential construction for every five year forecast period.
EMPLOYMENT Component
Number of jobs for subregions and economic sectors.
Methodology
Trend for countywide employment allocated to areas by type using zip code level employment data.
Forecast 2000
Geography The county boundaries are identical to the Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), including the Channel Islands, comprises nearly 2,750 square miles of land and inland water area. Approximately rectangular in shape, Santa Barbara County is bordered on the north by San Luis Obispo County, on the east by Ventura County, and on the south and west by 107 miles of Pacific coastline. Much of the county is mountainous. The Santa Ynez, San Rafael and Sierra Madre mountains extend in a predominately east-west direction. Within the county there are numerous fertile agricultural areas, including the Santa Maria, Cuyama, Lompoc, and Santa Ynez Valleys, and the southeast coastal plain. These areas, which include most of the developed land, also accommodate the majority of the population. Los Padres National Forest, in the eastern part of the county, covers approximately 44 percent of the total county area. The population forecast is prepared for five subcounty areas referred to as the South Coast, Lompoc, Santa Maria, Santa Ynez, and Cuyama subregions. Vandenberg Air Force Base is in the Lompoc subregion. The Santa Maria subregion includes the Santa Maria and Guadalupe valleys. The South Coast subregion includes the Carpinteria and Santa Barbara\Goleta valleys. Forecasts are prepared for both the cities and unincorporated areas. The new City of Goleta is addressed in the Appendix since the necessary data was not available to include it in the forecast model. Figure 1-1 identifies the boundaries of each area. The area names are as follows; South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Valley Uninc. SBUninc. City of Goleta Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM Valley - Uninc. Guad. Valley - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY Valley Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion
The employment forecast uses similar geographic areas although it is not disaggregated into cities and unincorporated areas. Employment forecasts use zip code level data that does not correspond to city or unincorporated area boundaries. In addition, employment forecasts for small areas are inherently less accurate than for larger regions. For this reason the employment forecast is done for subregions only. Note that the Santa Maria Subregion also includes the Cuyama Valley because employment in that area is negligible. The subregions are as follows: South Coast Subregion Santa Ynez Subregion Lompoc Subregion Santa Maria Subregion
North County refers to the area west and north of Gaviota and includes the Santa Ynez, Lompoc, Santa Maria, and Cuyama valleys. The South Coast refers to the Goleta, Santa Barbara, Carpinteria coastal plain.
Forecast 2000
Forecast 2000
Chapter 2 Population Forecast

Introduction This chapter describes the components of population, its forecast growth to 2030 and its distribution to the cities and unincorporated areas. It also compares historical growth trends with forecast growth. Births, mortality, migration and other components of population growth are discussed first. Births and Mortality The number of births in a region impacts population growth and the demand for services such as schools, recreational facilities, childcare, and medical care. Historical data on births are used to develop birth rates in the population model. The model applies these rates to the female population in each jurisdiction to generate births by various age groups for each city and unincorporated area. This is an essential part of the tool used in forecasting population called the cohort survival model. The model ages the population by the various age groups (cohorts) by adding in births to the baseline population (1990 Census population). The following Diagram 2-1 shows all the components of the cohort model. Births are only one component of natural population change. Deaths are subtracted from the population group to complete the natural aging of the population. The forecast provides population estimates for every five-year period by adding in new births and subtracting out deaths. This discussion will review historical, current, and forecast birth and mortality data. It will also review some of the factors influencing births to aid in estimating future birth rates. Findings of this birth and mortality evaluation have shown the following: Countywide births have leveled off at approximately 6,000 annually. The highest proportion of births is in North County and the proportion is increasing. Santa Maria City has the largest percentage of countywide births. Births to women of Hispanic Origin are increasing. Women over 30 years old are giving birth in increasing numbers. Overall mortality rates are in decline. Infant Mortality rates are in decline. Births rates have leveled off but are forecast to increase slightly over the forecast period. Mortality rates are forecast to continue to decline over the forecast period. Countywide birth and mortality rates are remarkably similar to state rates.
State and County Birth Trends The number of annual births in the county has for the last 25 years ranged from 3,500 to over 6,000 per year, according to data from the California State Department of Health, Statistics Branch. There were 4,800 births In 1982 and by 1998 there were 5,700 births, an increase of 20 percent. The countywide population increased by a similar percentage in the same period. Figure 2-1 shows the number of births for the state and the county. Historically, on both a statewide and local level, births have fluctuated from an unusually low rate during the depression and World ll years, to the post war baby boom, and a subsequent decline that started in the sixties. An increase in births occurred in the 80s due in part to the age progression of the baby boomer women enter their prime child bearing ages of 20-30. We are now experiencing a leveling off and slight decline as these women age past their prime childbearing years. 7 Forecast 2000
Diagram 2-1 Components of the Cohort Survival Model

Base Data Population Distribution of Males and Females
Multiply by male and female age specific mortality rates
Multiply by female age specific fertility assumptions
Subtract total number of deaths every 5 years
Add total number of births every 5 years
New population distribution every five year period
Figure 2-1 Births for Santa Barbara County, And the State of California
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
70 71
72 73
74 75
76 77
78 79
80 81
82 83
84 85
86 87
88 89
90 91
92 93
94 95
96
County Births
State Births
Forecast 2000
Births are not evenly distributed throughout the county. There is a trend of more births in Santa Maria Valley and fewer in the South Coast. In part, this is due to the increasing proportion of the population located in Santa Maria. In 1982 the South Coast had 47 percent of the 4,800 total births and by 1999 its share declined to 43 percent of the 5,400 total births. The Santa Maria area (includes both the incorporated and unincorporated areas of the Santa Maria Valley) increased over the same time period from 29 percent to 37 percent of countywide births. The Santa Ynez and Cuyama Valleys well as the Lompoc Valley have remained relatively stable in their proportion of countywide births Figure 2-2 Distribution of Births by Subregion
Total Births in 1999 = 5,400
Santa Ynez 4% Lompoc 16%
South Coast 43%
Santa Maria 37%
Forecast 2000
Figure 2-3 shows the proportion of births for the cities and the unincorporated areas of the county in 1999. The City of Santa Maria has the highest proportion of births at 35 percent but represents only 16 percent of the countywide population. The City of Santa Barbara has 26 percent of the births and 23 percent of the population. The unincorporated area as a whole has 18 percent of births and 42 percent of the population. Figure 2-3 1999 Births for Cities and Unincorporated Total
Total Births in 1999 = 5,400
Carp 4% Unincorporated 18%
Buellton 1% Solvang 1%
Santa Barbara 26%
Guadalupe 2%
Santa Maria 35%
Lompoc 13%
10
Forecast 2000
Historical Trends Table 2-1 shows the number of births by postal zip code for 1982, 1996, and 1999. Births by zip codes were then allocated to cities and unincorporated areas, although, in most cases the correlation is not 100% accurate. For example, the Cities of Guadalupe and Carpinteria each have only one zip code that covers both the city and the unincorporated area surrounding it. In these instances the unincorporated areas are allocated a proportionate number of births based on 1990 population distribution. For the purpose of developing rough birth rates, this zip code allocation method is sufficient. These birth rates are used in the forecast model to calculate the number of births for women in various age groups. The largest increases in births are for the Goleta, Guadalupe, and Santa Maria Zip code areas with over 50 percent increase in births between 1982 and 1996. Zip code areas with decreases in births between 1982 and 1996 occurred in the Santa Barbara 93109 zip code area, Montecito, and VAFB. The most recent 1999 data is also shown. In most zip code areas the number of births has dropped between 1996 and 1999 reversing the earlier trends showing a leveling off of the increasing birth rates. This is consistent with statewide trends and the RGF. Table 2-1 Births by Zip Code Areas, Santa Barbara County, 1982, 1996, 1999 1982-1996 Zip Code Area 1982 1996 Percent Change Carpinteria 216 230 13% Summerland 9 10 11% Santa Barbara 488 625 28% Santa Barbara 310 322 4% Santa Barbara 243 280 15% Montecito 74 67 -9% Santa Barbara 133 124 -7% Goleta 98 151 54% Goleta 153 161 5% Goleta/Isla Vista 532 533 0% Buellton 38 50 32% Casmalia 6 6 0% Guadalupe 87 132 52% Lompoc 638 769 21% VAFB 279 169 -39% Los Alamos 32 35 9% Los Olivos 20 19 -5% Santa Maria 1,049 1,676 60% Orcutt 284 414 46% Santa Ynez 48 62 29% Solvang 64 94 47% 4,800 5,960 24%
Zip Code 93013 93067 93101 93103 93105 93108 93109 93110 93111 93117 93427 93429 93434 93436 93437 93440 93441 93454* 93455 93460 93463 93458* Total
1999 230 13 561 328 255 73 115 148 170 435 61 6 127 704 181 13 7 1,070 309 65 72 509 5,400
The new Zip Code for 1999 is 93458. It subdivides 93454 Zip Code in the Santa Maria region.
11
Forecast 2000
It is also apparent that the age distribution of the mothers giving birth is also shifting (Figure 2-4). In 1970 approximately 20 percent of total county births were attributed to the 30 and over age group. By 1995 this had changed, almost 40 percent of total births were attributed to women in this same age group. Women are waiting longer to have their first child while focusing on their careers or other activities. The younger age groups (less than 29) have declined in their percentage share of births. Figure 2-4 Age of Mothers Giving Birth, 1970-1995
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 70 75 80 85 90 95
< 19
20-24
Age of Mother 25-29 30-34

From Sacramento Department of Health Services
35-39
40+
The proportion of births to younger mothers is highest in Santa Maria. The city has only 20 percent 12 Forecast 2000
of females less than 20 years of age, and 46 percent of the total countywide births to mothers in that age group. The unincorporated areas of the county have 42 percent of this age group but only 10 percent of the births. Figure 2-5 shows these proportions. Figure 2-5 Births to Teenage Mothers in 1999, For Cities and Total Unincorporated
100,500 Persons Under 20 Years of Age
Guad\Solv\Buell 4% Lomp. 12%
Carp. 4%
Unincorp. 42%
S.B. 18%
S.M. 20%
600 Total Births for Mothers Under 20 Years of Age
Guad\Solv\Buell 4%
Carp. 3%
Unincorp. 10%
Lomp. 17%
S.B. 20%
S.M. 46%
13
Forecast 2000
Births and School Enrollment Births eventually lead to enrollment of young children in school. By tracking births one can anticipate future enrollment in local schools and to help provide information for developing additional educational facilities and infrastructure. The California Basic Educational Data System (CBEDS) collects student enrollment data for all the school districts in California. In Santa Barbara County, from 1989 to 1999 enrollment increased by 26 percent, or 13,700 students. This trend is particularly notable for elementary school grades 1-8 which increased from 37,600 students in 1989 to 47,000 students in 1999, a 25 percent increase. Enrollment increase varies throughout the county with North County schools experiencing the greatest numerical growth (8,200 students) compared to south county with 5,500 more students over the 1989-1999 period. Table 2-2 shows enrollment for each Santa Barbara County School District in 1989 and 1999. (Student enrollment in county private schools has been fairly constant at approximately 6,000). Year 2000 enrollment data is also included to show that for some districts (shown in bold) enrollment has declined slightly between 1999 and 2000. Perhaps the cost of housing in the South Coast is impacting families with children and causing them to relocate to other areas. Table 2-2 School Enrollment Grades K-12, 1989-1999 and 2000 19891989-1999 School Districts 1989 1999 1999 % Change 2000 Ballard 65 141 76 116% 141 Blochman Union 142 110 -32 -22% 97 Buellton Union 495 588 93 19% 634 Casmalia 28 22 -6 21% 27 Cold Spring 186 223 37 20% 239 College 620 674 54 9% 583 Goleta Union 3,741 4,515 774 20% 4,455 Guadalupe Union 994 1,110 116 12% 1,120 Hope 837 1,328 491 58% 1,312 Los Alamos 166 243 77 46% 247 Los Olivos 234 283 49 21% 316 Montecito Union 407 514 107 26% 504 Orcutt Union 3,820 4,871 1,051 27% 5,013 Santa Barbara 5,004 6,094 1,090 22% 6,008 Santa Maria 8,377 11,109 2,732 33% 11,312 Solvang 491 664 173 35% 657 Vista Del Mar 78 133 55 70% 117 High School Santa Barbara 7,443 9,841 2,398 32% 10,076 Santa Maria 4,257 6,101 1,844 43% 6,107 Santa Ynez 826 1,108 282 34% 1,105 Unified Districts Lompoc 9,887 11,384 1,497 15% 11,584 Carpinteria 2,558 3,161 603 23% 3,118 Cuyama 288 321 33 11% 331 51,660 65,410 13,750 26% 66,047 Total
Total includes 870 Special Education Students in 1999.
14
Forecast 2000
Map 2-1 shows the location of school districts to correlate school district information from the previous table with county areas. Map 2-1 Santa Barbara County School Districts
15
Forecast 2000
Births by Ethnicity The Department of Health classifies the mothers race/ethnicity into seven mutually exclusive groups, which are Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, Filipino, Hispanic, White, and Other. All mothers who indicated they were of Spanish/Hispanic Origin, regardless of their race, were enumerated in the Hispanic group. Births by mothers of Hispanic Origin have dramatically increased from 32 to 55 percent of total births between 1982-1996 (Figure 2-6). The influence of Hispanic births can be seen in the corresponding increase in the number and proportion of Hispanic students enrolled in the various school districts that increased from 30 to 40 percent from 1985 1996. Figure 2-6 Births by Mothers of Hispanic Origin, Santa Barbara County 1982-1996
16
Forecast 2000
Birth Rates by Jurisdiction Table 2-3 shows 1990 births for each jurisdiction developed from the California Department of Health zip code birth data and the number of females in the respective age groups from the 1990 census. This data is used to calculate birth rates. They are calculated for each five-year age group (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, etc.). In the forecast model, birth rates combined with the number of females in that age group are used to calculate the number of births for each five year forecast period. Note how the number of births varies by age with the 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 age groups having the highest annual birth rate. Table 2-3 Age Specific Birth Rates
Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. VALLEY/City SB VALLEY/City Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc VALLEY/City Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM VALLEY/City Guad. VALLEY/City Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang City of Buellton SY VALLEY/Cities Cuyama Subregion County Total
Females Age 15-19 7,841 421 2,223 497 7,344 1,645 1,131 1,645 3,442 2,032 238 3,172 270 503 142 81 503 14 13,445
Number of Births 261 26 162 38 223 133 117 133 311 259 27 281 30 24 12 4 24 0 729
Annual Birth Rate 0.033 0.062 0.073 0.076 0.030 0.081 0.103 0.081 0.090 0.127 0.113 0.089 0.111 0.048 0.085 0.049 0.048 0.000 0.054
Females Age 20-24 12,059 493 4,118 632 11,427 1,898 1,216 1,898 3,107 2,524 213 2,919 188 450 132 78 450 25 17,539
Number of Births 692 55 427 81 611 358 272 358 625 530 37 584 41 71 33 8 71 8 1,754
Females Age 25-29 8,076 555 4,322 735 7,341 2,994 1,837 2,994 4,338 2,933 245 4,071 267 619 149 138 619 32 16,059
Number of Births 827 61 443 89 738 413 326 413 699 529 38 657 42 78 19 23 78 4 2,021
Females Age 30-34 7,948 611 3,979 737 7,211 3,006 1,811 3,006 4,348 2,691 218 4,098 250 981 158 178 981 26 16,309
Number of Births 757 54 368 79 678 229 181 229 420 312 19 399 21 95 26 32 95 5 1,506
Females Age 35-39 7,426 631 3,645 844 6,582 2,006 1,348 2,006 3,700 2,123 175 3,482 218 853 191 168 853 33 14,018
Number of Births 348 27 189 39 309 70 59 70 152 108 7 144 8 32 9 6 32 2 604
Females Age 40-44 6,045 523 2,886 636 5,409 1,503 1,040 1,503 3,003 1,587 129 2,859 144 862 195 91 862 34 11,447
Number of Births 76 5 45 7 69 14 14 14 24 16 4 20 4 8 2 4 8 1 123
Females Age 45-49 5,178 348 2,004 560 4,618 1,408 873 1,408 2,560 1,354 93 2,433 127 626 137 81 626 72 9,844
Number of Births 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Total Births 2,963 228 1,635 333 2,630 1,217 969 1,217 2,232 1,754 133 2,085 147 308 101 77 308 20 6,740
17
Forecast 2000
Mortality Rates The California Department of Health Services provides mortality data. Countywide the total number of deaths ranged from approximately 2,000 annually in 1970 to between 2,800-3,000 by the mid 1990s. Statewide the trend shows similar increases over time as the population ages and there are a larger proportion of persons in the older age groups.
Figure 2-7 Mortality for Santa Barbara County, And State of California, 1970-1996
3500 3000 200 2500 2000 1500 1000 50 500 0 0 150 250
100
70 71
72 73
74 75
76 77
78 79
80 81
82 83
84 85
86 87
88 89
90 91
92 93
94 95
96
County Deaths
State Deaths
18
Forecast 2000
The Department of Health data also portrays residents death by zip code. The data is obtained from death certificates registered in California. Table 2-4 shows mortality by zip code area. The zip code area with the highest number of deaths is in Santa Maria (93454) with 484 or 17.5 percent of the countywide deaths in 1996. Santa Barbara zip code 93105 has the highest percent of deaths for zip code areas at 1.4 percent. The zip code areas with the lowest percent of deaths are in Summerland (93067) and Isla Vista (93117).
Table 2-4 1996 Mortality Rates By Zip Code

Mortality Rate
Zip Code
Zip Code Area
Mortality
Population
93013 93067 93101 93103 93105 93108 93109 93110 93111 93117 93427 93434 93436 93454 93455 93460 93463 Total
Carpinteria Summerland Santa Barbara Santa Barbara Santa Barbara Montecito Santa Barbara Goleta Goleta Goleta/Isla Vista Buellton Guadalupe Lompoc Santa Maria Orcutt Santa Ynez Solvang
125 5 232 126 344 113 71 167 131 146 28 41 309 484 290 34 98 2,778
16,553 1,344 29,792 18,199 23,135 12,898 11,020 15,293 17,781 46,017 3,821 6,030 49,889 60,247 32,779 5,795 8,287 360,371
.75% .37% .70% .69% 1.40% .87% .64% 1.00% .74% .31% .73% .68% .62% .80% .88% .59% 1.18% .70%
19
Forecast 2000
Mortality varies by race. The difference in Santa Barbara County, however, is due to the age distribution of the specific racial group. For example, the Hispanic Origin population is younger than the population of the county as a whole and therefore has fewer deaths in the older 65+ age groups. Note that in Figure 2-8 the Hispanic population accounts for 10 percent of the deaths but 27 percent of the population while the white population account for 85 percent of the deaths while comprising 66 percent of the population.
Figure 2-8 Mortality and Race/Ethnicity, Santa Barbara County, 1995
Hispanic 27% Hispanic 10.2% Black 3% Asian/Other 5%
Black 2.0% Asian/Other 3.0%
White 84.8%
White 66%
Deaths by Race/Ethnicity
Population Distribution by Race/Ethnicity
20
Forecast 2000
Forecast Births and Mortality In development of the cohort model it is necessary to forecast future birth and mortality rates. As discussed earlier these rates are applied to the various age cohorts and geographical areas of the county in the forecasts age cohort survival model. The model provides estimates of births and deaths in five-year increments from 2000 to 2030. Changes in the number of births result from several factors. The population of women in the childbearing age groups is expected to grow slower. Another issue of importance is the number of women entering the work force and continuing to delay childbearing until later. These factors have a tendency to reduce births. On the other hand the large proportion of Hispanic families would tend to increase birth rates. Hispanic females had 47 percent of 1990 births but the Hispanic population as a whole constituted 27 percent of the total county population. Figure 2-9 shows a Department of Finance forecast to 2005 of statewide births. Beyond 2000 there is an increase of births for the following age groups: 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and 40-44 year olds. In general there is a leveling off of birth rates overall. The RGF also levels off the rate of births for future forecast periods. Figure 2-9 Department of Finance, Statewide Births 1970-2005
The RGF age cohort model results are presented in Table 2-5 and 2-6. The 2000 Census baseline population is aged in five-year increments to 2030. Birth rates increase slightly after the year 2000 due to the higher proportion of Hispanic and older women giving birth. Mortality rates are reduced over the forecast period following national trends. The last column shows the countywide 199020030 annual average natural net increases that range from 4,000 to 5,000 persons.
21
Forecast 2000
Table 2-5 Births and Mortality, For Cities, 2000-2030

Births 2000City Carpinteria Santa Barbara Solvang Lompoc Santa Maria Guadalupe Buellton City Total 2005 1,059 6,378 578 4,420 9,957 499 308 23,198 20052010 1,083 5,740 547 4,830 10,386 679 431 23,696 20102015 1,144 6,152 595 5,126 756 490 20152020 1,192 7,212 645 4,958 774 507 20202025 1,292 8,169 696 5,037 763 487 20252030 1,297 8,316 792 5,656 748 476 Annual Change 304 1,931 156 1,204 2,895 180 112 6,781
11,776 12,816
13,877 14,551
26,039 28,104
30,322 31,837
Mortality for Cities Average 2000City Carpinteria Santa Barbara Solvang Lompoc Santa Maria Guadalupe Buellton City Total 2005 373 3,505 210 852 2,333 92 120 7,485 20052010 406 3,519 268 1,037 2,744 142 241 8,356 20102015 455 3,663 276 1,135 3,235 145 285 20152020 525 4,045 273 1,189 3,667 155 294 20202025 592 4,526 264 1,228 3,736 159 304 20252030 684 5,197 244 1,375 3,536 166 312 Annual Change 131 1,028 67 289 767 38 61 2,381
9,196 10,148
10,810 11,513
Net Change Births - Deaths Average 2000City Carpinteria Santa Barbara Solvang Lompoc Santa Maria Guadalupe Buellton City Total 2005 686 2,873 368 3,568 7,624 406 188 15,713 20052010 677 2,221 279 3,793 7,642 538 190 15,340 20102015 689 2,488 320 3,991 8,541 610 205 20152020 667 3,167 372 3,769 9,149 619 212 20202025 700 3,643 432 3,809 604 183 20252030 613 3,120 548 4,280 582 164 Annual Change 174 903 90 914 2,127 142 51 4,401
10,141 11,016
16,844 17,956
19,512 20,324
Table 2-6 Births and Mortality, 22 Forecast 2000
For Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030

Unincorp. Number of Births Average Unincorp. 20002005 Carpinteria Santa Barbara Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria Guadalupe Cuyama Unincorp. Total 419 6,980 1,103 785 1,995 230 100 20052010 481 8,646 1,480 1,413 3,783 (63) 108 20102015 466 8,181 1,897 1,751 4,353 (123) 129 16,654 20152020 499 6,437 2,043 2,279 4,892 (98) 148 16,200 20202025 491 5,190 1,940 2,125 4,733 (52) 153 14,580 20252030 540 5,295 1,703 1,412 4,378 48 160 13,537 Annual Change 107 1,544 399 376 940 8 34 3,408
11,613 15,847
Unincorp. Number of Deaths Average Unincorp. 20002005 Carpinteria Santa Barbara Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria Guadalupe Cuyama Unincorp. Total 314 3,071 859 269 1,179 454 79 6,224 20052010 587 4,236 1,269 792 2,420 219 78 9,601 20102015 491 4,542 1,431 911 2,323 163 82 9,944 20152020 516 4,816 1,539 1,072 2,365 129 89 10,525 20202025 561 5,521 1,637 1,231 2,655 120 96 11,821 20252030 589 6,066 1,771 1,286 2,969 123 102 12,906 Annual Change 111 1,138 325 213 535 41 22 2,384
Unincorp. Net Change Births-Deaths Average Unincorp. 20002005 Carpinteria Santa Barbara Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria Guadalupe Cuyama 106 3,909 244 517 816 (224) 21 20052010 (106) 4,410 211 621 1,362 (282) 30 20102015 (24) 3,638 466 840 2,030 (286) 46 20152020 (17) 1,621 505 1,207 2,527 (226) 59 20202025 (70) (331) 303 894 2,078 (172) 57 20252030 (50) (771) (68) 126 1,409 (75) 58 Annual Change (45) 97 56 (1) 17 (72) 9 62
Unincorp. Total 5,388 6,246 6,710 5,675 2,759 631 Note that for some areas the negative births represents a net loss (deaths).
Mortality rates have been declining slightly over time as medical advances, diet, and lifestyle 23 Forecast 2000
changes have prolonged our life span. This decline in mortality rates is expected to continue due to new medical advances and higher quality care. The forecast assumes a slow decline in the mortality rate. It is important to note that although the number of deaths has been increasing it is not due to higher rates but to the increasing proportion of the older population. Figure 2-10 shows the proportion of births and deaths throughout the forecast period. The difference between these two factors is the natural increase in the population. There are more births than deaths throughout the forecast period. Figure 2-10 Countywide Births and Mortality from 2000-2030
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2005 20002010 20052015 2010Mortality 2020 2015Births 2025 20202030 2025-
Time Period 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
Births 34,000 39,000 42,000 43,000 44,000 44,000
Mortality 13,000 17,000 19,000 20,000 22,000 24,000
Net change 21,000 22,000 23,000 23,000 22,000 20,000
24
Forecast 2000
Migration Migration is another component of population growth. It is considered a long distance move which completely changes a persons activity network. Shorter moves between cities in close proximity are considered residential mobility not migration. Migration is a difficult component to forecast because it varies so dramatically depending on employment opportunities, housing costs and availability etc. In addition, migration data is limited and often does not capture the entire migrant population. The State Department of Finance (DOF) has procured Federal tax return and Department of Motor Vehicles drivers license address change data to analyze statewide and county level migration trends. On a statewide basis their analysis shows five distinct periods of migration trends. 1. 1950-1965 with large domestic in-migrant flows averaging 272,000 persons per year. 2. 1966-1975 with the aerospace industry slowdown domestic in-migrants dropped below 100,000 a year and was negative in 1972. 3. 1975-1985 showed a positive growth at 60,000 per year. 4. 1985-1990 over 100,000 persons per year. 5. 1990-1994 out-migration of up to 250,000 persons per year due to recession. According to the DOF in a 1995 report Migration Between California and Other States, characteristics of migrants to and from the State of California include the following: In-migrants tend to be young adult members of the labor force. In-migrants tend to have higher incomes than out-migrants. In-migrants more likely to be white-collar workers than out-migrants. In-migrants less likely to own there own home. Migrants tend to be White. In-migrants tend to be better educated. In-migrants tend to be single and out-migrants families.
Santa Barbara County has experienced trends similar to the state since this county is linked to the state in terms of general economic activity and demographic patterns. Specific components of migration include immigration from other countries. For Santa Barbara County, according to the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, approximately 1,0002,000 immigrants arrived annually from 1990-1998 for a total of 15,000. In addition, there is a component of retirees that can be tracked to some extent by Medicare enrollment data. Santa Barbara county retirees enrolled in Medicare increased by 5,590 from 43,000 in 1990 to 48,590 in 1999. Other measures of migration include the 1990 Census tabulation of persons whose residence was outside the county before 1985. During this time period approximately 92,900 persons migrated into the county, 54,000 from other parts of the state, 29,500 from other states, and 16,000 from abroad. The 1980 Census tabulation shows that during the 1970-1980 period 86,000 persons migrated into the county. The census does not provide data on out-migration. Responding to observations that the elderly population is increasing rapidly in some areas of the county staff conducted an analysis of growth in the older adult population. The age cohort survival model was used to age the 1990 Census population to the year 2000 and then compared with the 2000 Census results for the same 55+ age group. This analysis indicated that in the Santa Maria Valley approximately 6,000 older persons resided in the valley. In the Santa Ynez Valley, approximately 2,000 more persons resided in the area than the cohort model predicted. This implies 25 Forecast 2000
net in migration for the 55+ age group in these two regions and a resulting increase in services for the elderly. The DOF county migration estimates and forecasts are shown in the below. Current and historical county migration estimates are based on averaging the results of data from the Federal tax return and DMV drivers license change of address data sets. Unfortunately these migration data sources are not available to local and regional governments. The DOF forecast of migration is based on historical averages. The 1970 population was aged over time to 1980 by adding births and subtracting deaths. The 1980 census population was then compared to the aged population and the difference is considered to be migration. The same method was used between 1980 and 1990 and then both periods were averaged. Figure 2-11 DOF Components of Population Growth, For Santa Barbara County, Births, Deaths and Migration
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Number of Persons 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 20 3 19 7 19 7 19 7 19 8 19 8 19 8 19 8 19 9 19 9 19 9 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 1 20 1 20 1 20 1 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 3
-2,000 -4,000
Year -6,000
Births
Deaths
26
Net Migration
Forecast 2000
20 3
The DOF migration forecast is significantly higher than the RGF. The RGF uses a land use based constraint to migration that in theory limits the number of persons who can move here. The RGF model assumes that because of limited housing and an estimated persons per household density there is a net positive in-migration of approximately 2,000 persons annually until 2005 and 1,000 persons until 2010. New inmigrants are assumed to be of the same age distribution as the existing population. From 2010 to 2015 there is no net migration. After 2015 there is a net out-migration pattern continuing through 2030. The forecast beyond 2015 indicates there is not enough housing to accommodate the existing population, the natural increase (due to births minus deaths) and new in-migrants combined. The SBCAG work program includes an Alternative Land Use and Transportation Futures Analysis that will consider a variety of migration scenarios. Figure 2-12 RGF Components of Population Growth, For Santa Barbara County, Births, Deaths and Migration
10,000
8,000
6,000 Number of Persons
4,000
2,000
0
25 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 83 86 89 71 74 77 80 92 20 22 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 28
-2,000
-4,000 Births
Year
Deaths
Net Migration
27
Forecast 2000
Age Structure Figures 2-13 to 2-14 show the change in age distribution for the total population countywide from 2000 to 2030. The change is the result of births and deaths for each age group as the population ages over the 30-year period. As the figures show the baby boomer population (born between 1947-1964) ages and increases in number for all areas of the county. This trend is also occurring both nationally and statewide. This has implications concerning the workforce and the availability of younger workers to fill the jobs of those retiring. In some cases, the older population is working longer which may provide a more experienced labor force. The aging of the population also has health care implications with the older population requiring more medical services. Figure 2-13 Santa Barbara County Age Distribution, 2000
Census 2000 Countywide Age Distribution 399,000 Total Population
Age 60+ 17%
Age 0-19 28%
Age 45-59 19%
Age 20-44 36%
28
Forecast 2000
Figure 2-14 Santa Barbara County Age Distribution, 2030

Year 2030 Countywide Age Distribution 521,000 Total Population
Age 60+ 25%
Age 0-19 31%
Age 45-59 14% Age 20-44 30%
Components of the Population Forecast The total county population for each five-year forecast period is made up of several groups that are divided into sub-groups for forecasting purposes. The primary division is between household population and group quarters population. The household population (persons occupying housing units) is also divided into various components: The first component is the population that is expected to stay in the area and age over time "i.e.: the aging population". The aging household population during any one forecast year consists of residents who currently live in the area and those who migrate into the County because of jobs or retirement. The second component consists of those individuals such as students who stay only for a limited amount of time. Persons of the same general age distribution replace this population group. This group is referred to as the "fixed age" household population and is comprised of UCSB students who live off campus. Westmont College houses its students on campus ingroup quarters. There are approximately 13,000 of these "fixed age" persons in the unincorporated South Coast area.
The "group quarters" population is also part of the fixed age group however it is not a part of overall household demand. The group quarters do not utilize housing units. They consist of oncampus UCSB/Westmont students living in dormitories (2,600 at UCSB, 1,200 at Westmont), Vandenberg AFB enlisted persons in dormitories (1,900), prisoners at the U.S. Penitentiary 29 Forecast 2000
(2,000), and persons in retirement homes etc. According to the UCSB Long Range Development Plan the increase in group quarters population is anticipated to be 700 by 2005. Also, another 1,000 group quarters may be added by 2005 due to the expanded U.S. Penitentiary in the Lompoc area. No changes in group quarters are forecast at either Vandenberg AFB or Westmont College. The household population for any forecast period consists of the baseline population (including new births minus deaths during the previous five years) and net migrants who have arrived (or left) during this same period. The Santa Barbara Subregion age distribution does not include approximately 13,000 of the fixed age population consisting of college students who in general stay for educational purposes then leave the area. Note the relatively smaller number of 20-25 year olds in Figure 2-16.
Figure 2-15 Santa Barbara County Age Distribution, 2000-2030
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0-4 5-9 1014 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 Age 2000 2030 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074 75- 80+ 79
Population
30
Forecast 2000
Figure 2-16 Santa Barbara Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030

20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 0-4 5-9 1014 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 Age 2000 2030 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074 75- 80+ 79
Population
Figure 2-17 Carpinteria Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030

2,500 2,000 Population 1,500 1,000 500 0 0-4 5-9 1014 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 Age 2000 2030 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074 7579 80+
31
Forecast 2000
Figure 2-18 Santa Maria Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030

25,000 20,000 Population 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0-4 5-9 1014 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 Age 2000 2030 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074 7579 80+
Figure 2-19 Lompoc Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030

7,000 6,000 Population 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Age 2000 2030
32
Forecast 2000
Figure 2-20 Santa Ynez Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030
3,500 3,000 Population 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 0-4 5-9 1014 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 Age 2000 2030 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074 7579 80+
Total Population Forecast Total countywide population is forecast to be 521,000 by 2030, increasing by 121,700 or 30 percent from the year 2000. The South Coast Subregion (includes Carpinteria Valley, Goleta Valley and Goleta, Santa Barbara and Carpinteria City) is forecast to experience an increase in population of 20 percent vs. 29 percent for the Lompoc subregion, 26 percent for the Santa Ynez subregion and 51 percent for Santa Maria subregion (includes Santa Maria, Guadalupe City and Orcutt). Tables 2-7 to 2-9 show the 2000-2030 total, numerical, and percent increase in population for each area of the county. The newly incorporated City of Goleta population forecast is provided in Appendix l. North County cities are forecast to experience significant increases in population during the 2000-2030 period ranging from 55 percent for Buellton to over 47 percent for Santa Maria. In the South Coast, the forecast increases are significantly less ranging from 13 percent for Carpinteria and 15 percent for Santa Barbara. The City of Santa Maria is forecast to have a larger population than the City of Santa Barbara by the year 2010. The unincorporated portion of the Santa Ynez and Santa Maria Valley (Orcutt) are forecast to increase in population over the 20002030 period by 20 percent and 65 percent respectively. The unincorporated area of Lompoc (Mission Hills, Vandenberg Village) will increase 47 percent. In the unincorporated Carpinteria Valley (Summerland, Toro Canyon), and Santa Barbara (Goleta Valley, Montecito), population growth is forecast to increase by 44 percent and 25 percent respectively. The county's population distribution is forecast to shift toward North County (north of Gaviota). This shift is due in part to the availability of more vacant land designated for residential and commercial development in the North County. The North County is estimated to have over 50 percent of the total county population by the year 2005 and over 54 percent by 2030. 33 Forecast 2000
Table 2-7 Total Population Forecast, Subregions, Cities, and Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030
Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. - Uninc. SB - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc - Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM - Uninc. Guad. - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total Total Unincorporated Total City 2000 201,000 14,200 89,600 4,900 92,300 58,300 41,100 17,200 116,800 77,400 5,700 33,300 400 21,800 5,300 12,700 3,800 1,400 399,000 162,000 237,000 2005 209,600 14,800 91,200 5,200 98,400 65,500 43,500 22,000 134,000 87,900 5,900 39,500 700 25,300 5,900 14,000 5,400 1,300 436,000 181,000 255,000 2010 216,800 15,000 92,700 5,600 103,500 68,700 44,900 23,800 148,200 96,800 6,000 44,700 700 27,100 6,300 15,000 5,800 1,400 462,000 195,000 268,000 2015 224,900 15,300 94,900 5,900 108,800 71,100 46,100 25,000 163,100 105,900 6,200 50,200 800 27,200 6,300 15,100 5,800 1,400 488,000 207,000 281,000 2020 232,000 15,500 97,200 6,200 113,100 72,300 47,200 25,100 171,600 110,800 6,400 53,600 800 27,200 6,300 15,100 5,800 1,400 505,000 215,000 289,000 2025 236,200 15,800 99,400 6,600 114,400 73,700 48,500 25,200 174,200 112,700 6,500 54,200 800 27,300 6,300 15,100 5,900 1,500 513,000 218,000 295,000 2030 240,300 16,000 101,700 6,900 115,700 75,200 49,900 25,300 176,200 113,700 6,700 54,900 900 27,400 6,300 15,200 5,900 1,600 521,000 221,000 300,000
Totals are rounded.
34
Forecast 2000
Table 2-8 Numerical Change for Forecast Periods, Subregions, Cities, Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030
2000 Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. - Uninc. SB - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc - Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM - Uninc. Guad. - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion Total County Total Unincorporated Total City -2005 8,600 600 1,600 300 6,100 7,200 2,400 4,800 17,200 10,500 200 6,200 300 3,500 600 1,300 1,600 (100) 36,400 18,900 17,500 2005 -2010 7,200 200 1,500 400 5,100 3,200 1,400 1,800 14,200 8,900 100 5,200 1,800 400 1,000 400 100 26,500 13,600 12,900 2010 -2015 8,100 300 2,200 300 5,300 2,400 1,200 1,200 14,900 9,100 200 5,500 100 100 100 25,500 12,500 13,000 2015 -2020 7,100 200 2,300 300 4,300 1,200 1,100 100 8,500 4,900 200 3,400 16,800 8,100 8,700 2020 -2025 4,200 300 2,200 400 1,300 1,400 1,300 100 2,600 1,900 100 600 100 100 100 8,400 2,500 5,900 2025 -2030 4,100 200 2,300 300 1,300 1,500 1,400 100 2,000 1,000 200 700 100 100 100 100 7,800 2,700 5,100 Total Change 2000-2030 39,300 1,800 12,100 2,000 23,400 16,900 8,800 8,100 59,400 36,300 1,000 21,600 500 5,600 1,000 2,500 2,100 200 121,400 58,300 63,100
35
Forecast 2000
Table 2-9 Percent Change, 2000-2030, Subregions, Cities and Unincorporated Areas
2000 Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. - Uninc. SB - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc - Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM - Uninc. Guad. - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total Total Unincorporated Total City -2005 4.3% 4.2% 1.8% 6.1% 6.6% 12.3% 5.8% 27.9% 14.7% 13.6% 3.5% 18.6% 75.0% 16.1% 11.3% 10.2% 42.1% -7.1% 9.1% 11.7% 7.4% 2005 -2010 3.4% 1.4% 1.6% 7.7% 5.2% 4.9% 3.2% 8.2% 10.6% 10.1% 1.7% 13.2% 0.0% 7.1% 6.8% 7.1% 7.4% 7.7% 6.1% 7.5% 5.1% 2010 -2015 3.7% 2.0% 2.4% 5.4% 5.1% 3.5% 2.7% 5.0% 10.1% 9.4% 3.3% 12.3% 14.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 6.4% 4.9% 2015 -2020 3.2% 1.3% 2.4% 5.1% 4.0% 1.7% 2.4% 0.4% 5.2% 4.6% 3.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 3.9% 3.1% 2020 -2025 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 6.5% 1.1% 1.9% 2.8% 0.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 7.1% 1.7% 1.2% 2.0% 2025 Total Change -2030 1.7% 1.3% 2.3% 4.5% 1.1% 2.0% 2.9% 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 3.1% 1.3% 12.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 6.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.7% 2000-2030 19.6% 12.7% 13.5% 40.8% 25.4% 29.0% 21.4% 47.1% 50.9% 46.9% 17.5% 64.9% 125.0% 25.7% 18.9% 19.7% 55.3% 14.3% 30.4% 35.9% 26.6% Annual Average 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 0.6% 2.2% 4.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 1.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
36
Forecast 2000
Figure 2-21 shows the proportion of growth from 2000-2030 as well as the existing population in the year 2000 for subregions, large and small cities, and unincorporated valleys. Note that the Cuyama Subregion is not displayed due to its relatively small population for the figures scale. Figure 2-22 shows the change in population distribution between North County and South Coast that is declining in overall proportion of the population. Figure 2-21 Population Growth for Subregions, Cities and Unincorporated Areas 2000-2030 Subregions Large Cities
300,000 250,000 Population 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 South Coast Lompoc Valley Santa Maria Valley Santa Ynez Valley
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Santa Barbara Existing Population Lompoc Santa Maria
Existing Population
Total Change 2000-2030
Small Cities
Unincorporated Areas
18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Carpinteria Guadalupe Solvang Buellton
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Carpinteria Valley Goleta Valley Lompoc Valley Santa Maria Valley Santa Ynez Valley
Existing Population
2000-2030
Existing Population
37
Forecast 2000
Figure 2-22 Total Population Distribution, Subregions Year 2000, 399,000 Total Population
Santa Ynez 5%
Year 2030, 521,000 Total Population

Santa Ynez 5%
Santa Maria 29% South Coast 51%
Santa Maria 34%
South Coast 47%
Lompoc 15%
Lompoc 14%
It is useful to look at historical data to put forecast population growth in perspective. Figure 2-23 shows both historical (1950-2000) and forecast (2000-2030) population growth for the county. Figure 2-23 Countywide Population Growth, 1940-2030
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

1940 70555
1950 98220
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
173600 264324 298694 369608 399347 461900 504400 521000
38
Forecast 2000
Population growth on a countywide level experienced its highest rate of change during the 19501970 period. The forecast beyond year 2000 shows a slowing growth trend in comparison.
Historical and Forecast Growth Rates
1940-1950 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
39% 77% 52% 13% 24% 8% 15% 9.0% 3.3%
In Figure 2-24 Lompoc City shows a slowing population growth after 2000. Santa Maria City experiences continued growth historically and throughout the forecast period leveling off as its available land is used up. Note that Santa Maria City approaches the population of Santa Barbara City in 2005. Figure 2-24 Large City Population Growth, 1940-2030
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Santa Maria
Lompoc
Santa Barbara
39
Forecast 2000
In Figure 2-25 Carpinteria City population growth is greater during the 1970-1990 period than in later years. Buellton City shows continued growth in the initial forecast period due to a large amount of residential development while population growth in Solvang slows. Guadalupe City experiences greater growth during the 1980-2000 period and levels off thereafter. Figure 2-25 Small City Population Growth, 1950-2030
18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Carpinteria
Solvang
Buellton
Guadalupe
40
Forecast 2000
The following table shows the numerical and percent change for each 10-year period from 19702030 and an annual average change for the cities and unincorporated areas of the county. The 1980-1990 period saw the largest countywide annual average percentage growth of 2.2 percent compared to .3 percent annually over the 2025-2030 period. Table 2-10 Historical and Forecast Total Population Change, For Cities and Unincorporated Areas, 1980-2030
AREA South Coast Region City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Uninc. South Coast Santa Ynez Region City of Buellton City of Solvang Uninc. Santa Ynez Lompoc Region City of Lompoc Uninc. Lompoc Valley Santa Maria Region City of Guadalupe City of Santa Maria Unic. Santa Maria V. Cuyama County Total Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual 1970-80 Change Change 1980-90 Change Change 90-2000 Change Change 20,397 14% 1.4% 20,545 12% 1.2% 9,641 5% 0.5% 3,853 55% 5.5% 2,912 27% 2.7% 447 3% 0.3% 4,327 6% 0.6% 11,029 15% 1.5% 4,029 5% 0.5% 12,217 17% 1.7% 6,604 8% 0.8% 5,165 6% 0.6% 5,769 69% 6.9% 5,407 38% 3.8% 2,355 322 591 1,442 -175 3,454 -3,629 17,781 1071 15,871 1,730 143 29,739 12% 9% 12% 13% 0% 9% -17% 18% 20% 26% 5% 12% 8% 1.2% .9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.9% -1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8%
-3,933 -2,950 -3,017 3,732 484 6,936 11,152 34,336
-18% -6% -12% 18% 15% 21% 20% 13%
-1.8% -0.6% -1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3%
13,697 15,382 2,315 31,273 1,850 21,867 7,556 66 70,948
31% 69% 13% 46% 51% 55% 31% 6% 24%
3.1% 6.9% 1.3% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5% 3.1% 0.6% 2.4%
Area South Coast Region City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Uninc. South Coast Santa Ynez Region City of Buellton City of Solvang Uninc. Santa Ynez Lompoc Region City of Lompoc Uninc. Lompoc Valley Santa Maria Region City of Guadalupe City of Santa Maria Uninc. Santa Maria V. Cuyama County Total
Percent Annual Percent Annual Percent Annual 20-2010 Change Change 2010-20 Change Change 2020-30 Change Change 16,200 8% 0.8% 15,700 7% 0.7% 8,800 4% 0.4% 800 5% 0.5% 500 3% 0.3% 500 3% 0.3% 3,100 3% 0.3% 4,500 5% 0.5% 4,500 5% 0.5% 6,300 12% 1.2% 9,600 9% 0.9% 2,600 2% 0.2% 5,100 2,000 800 2,300 10,300 3,800 6,600 31,000 300 19,400 11,100 0 62,600 23% 49% 17% 18% 18% 9% 36% 27% 5% 24% 32% 0% 15% 2.3% 4.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 3.6% 2.7% 0.5% 2.4% 3.2% 0.0% 1.5% 400 0 0 100 3,700 2,300 1,300 22,700 400 14,000 8,900 0 42,300 1% 0% 0% 1% 5% 5% 5% 15% 7% 14% 20% 0% 9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 1.4% 2.0% 0.00% .9% 300 100 0 100 2,800 2,700 200 4,500 300 2,900 1,400 200 16,200 1% 2% 0% 1% 4% 6% 1% 3% 5% 2% 3% 14% 3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3%
41
Forecast 2000
Group Quarters Forecast The group quarters population uses the 2000 Census estimates as the benchmark and is adjusted upward proportionately as the population for each jurisdiction increases. In addition, for those areas where a significant increase is anticipated, such as the Federal Penitentiary, the group quarters forecast is adjusted based on facility expansion. Table 2-11 Group Quarters, 2000-2030
Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000-20030
9,644 125 1,792 10 7,717 4,313 3,439 874 2,400 2,162 0 238 0 374 160 208 6
10,427 125 1,792 10 8,500 5,588 4,678 910 2,638 2,400 0 238 0 386 160 220 6
10,627 125 1,792 10 8,700 5,739 4,782 957 2,838 2,600 0 238 0 396 160 230 6
10,827 125 1,792 10 8,900 5,749 4,749 1,000 3,038 2,800 0 238 0 406 160 240 6
11,027 125 1,792 10 9,100 5,600 4,500 1,100 3,238 3,000 0 238 0 416 160 250 6
11,227 125 1,792 10 9,300 5,710 4,510 1,200 3,438 3,200 0 238 0 426 160 260 6
11,427 125 1,792 10 9,500 5,820 4,520 1,300 3,638 3,400 0 238 0 436 160 270 6
1,783 0 0 0 1,783 1,507 1,081 426 1,238 1,238 0 0 0 62 0 62 0
City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. - Uninc. SB - Uninc.

Lompoc Subregion
City of Lompoc Lompoc Uninc.

Santa Maria Subregion
City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM - Uninc. Guad. - Uninc.

Santa Ynez Subregion
City of Solvang SY - Uninc. City of Buellton

Cuyama Subregion County Total
16,731
19,039
19,600
20,020
20,281
20,801
21,321
4,590
42
Forecast 2000
Household Population Forecast The household population forecast differs from the total population forecast. It does not contain any group quarters such as those persons living in dormitories, group homes etc. The household population forecast is also derived from the forecast model and is shown in Table 212. Table 2-13 shows the change in household population. Table 2-12 Household Population Forecast, 2000-2030
Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
191,403 14,069 87,808 4,812 84,714 53,998 37,664 16,334 114,418 75,261 5,659 33,107 391 21,443 5,172 12,449 3,822 1,355 382,617
199,176 14,313 90,124 5,136 89,603 59,920 38,928 20,992 131,286 85,517 5,855 39,264 650 24,957 5,894 13,678 5,385 1,308 416,647
206,925 14,560 92,324 5,464 94,578 62,886 40,206 22,680 145,343 94,156 6,021 44,479 687 26,657 6,254 14,669 5,734 1,357 443,169
214,777 14,808 94,549 5,781 99,639 65,346 41,498 23,848 159,930 103,096 6,189 49,918 726 26,805 6,290 14,743 5,772 1,391 468,248
221,778 15,058 96,799 6,122 103,798 66,651 42,804 23,848 168,321 107,797 6,358 53,411 755 26,745 6,290 14,689 5,766 1,429 484,925
225,751 15,311 99,073 6,470 104,897 67,971 44,123 23,848 170,806 109,526 6,529 53,956 795 26,886 6,316 14,741 5,829 1,501 492,915
229,757 15,565 101,372 6,823 105,996 69,304 45,456 23,848 172,519 110,286 6,701 54,694 839 26,992 6,316 14,799 5,877 1,585 500,157

Lompoc Subregion
City of Lompoc Lompoc - Uninc.



43
Forecast 2000
Table 2-13 Change in Household Population, 2000-2030

2000Jurisdiction South Coast Subregion 2005 20052010 20102015 20152020 20202025 20252030 20002030
7,773 244 2,316 324 4,889 5,922 1,264 4,658 16,914 10,256 196 6,157 305 3,514 722 1,229 1,563 (47) 34,076
7,749 246 2,200 328 4,975 2,967 1,278 1,689 14,057 8,639 166 5,214 37 1,700 360 991 349 49 26,522
7,851 248 2,225 317 5,061 2,459 1,292 1,167 14,586 8,940 168 5,439 39 148 36 75 38 34 25,079
7,001 250 2,250 341 4,159 1,306 1,306 0 8,391 4,701 169 3,493 28 (59) 0 (54) (6) 39 16,677
3,973 252 2,274 348 1,099 1,320 1,320 0 2,485 1,728 171 545 41 141 26 52 63 72 7,991
4,006 254 2,299 354 1,099 1,333 1,333 0 1,713 761 172 737 43 106 0 58 48 83
38,354 1,496 13,564 2,011 21,282 15,306 7,792 7,514 58,147 35,025 1,042 21,587 493 5,549 1,144 2,350 2,055 230

Lompoc Subregion
City of Lompoc Lompoc - Uninc.



7,242 117,586
44
Forecast 2000
Chapter 3 Employment Forecast

Introduction This chapter details assumptions used in forecasting employment growth to the year 2030 for each major economic subregion in Santa Barbara County: South Coast (Goleta, Carpinteria and Santa Barbara Cities), Santa Ynez, Lompoc and Santa Maria Subregion. The Santa Maria Subregion includes Guadalupe and Cuyama areas because of their relatively small employment base. A countywide economic forecast from 2000 to 2030 is first described. The countywide employment forecast is then separated to subregions and by major economic sectors such as construction or services. Employment forecasts are more accurate and data is available on an aggregate level. As a result the employment forecast is provided for larger subregions vs. the population forecast. Overview of Employment During the last three decades the County's economy has changed from a predominantly agricultural-based economy to one that is a diversified agricultural and technology based. Sparking this transformation was the establishment of Vandenberg AFB in 1957 and subsequent acceleration of defense-related and space related research activities at the facility. In addition, a number of electronics, research and development firms moved to the Santa Barbara-Goleta area that helped to stimulate the local economy. Between 1972 and 1983, county employment rose by approximately 49 percent, with the manufacturing sector exhibiting the largest gain in the number of jobholders. Tourism increased employment opportunities in the retail trade and services industries during this period, while the manufacturing industry was stimulated by new industrial firms moving into the area. During the recession in the early 1990s the manufacturing, construction, and other sectors downsized and employment was in decline. The drought, a nationwide recession, and the end of the cold war combined to put a damper on the economy during this time, and a halt to the job-growth pattern of the 1980's. Total 1991 non-agricultural wage and salary employment in Santa Barbara County was 151,200. This total represents a 900job decrease from the 1990 level of 152,100. In particular, the future of manufacturing was uncertain due to cutbacks in defense spending. However, the economic expansion currently being experienced shows great strength driven by expanding local firms in the telecommunications, computer, software, medical, and electronic business sectors. The 19981999 periods saw a gain of 1,700 non-farm jobs. In the short term, employment growth should slow as the labor market becomes tighter and it becomes more difficult to obtain skilled workers. The forecast does not account for the educational requirements of new workers. As reported by statewide economic forecasts such as the UCLA Anderson Forecast, corporate growth is expected to slow as consumer spending drops and other factors come into play. Longer term economic growth should continue as California and to a certain extent the Santa Barbara area benefit from innovations and development in the internet as well as other technological breakthroughs leading to new employment opportunities. A recent Santa Barbara News Press Business Outlook summary describes the future of the local economy as cooling although not as much as may occur nationwide. The summary indicates tourism, retail, and real estate will continue to be strong although a shortage of affordable housing and available commercial space continue to be a problem. In addition a recent report by the California Economic Forecast Project suggests that Santa Barbara County continues to prosper and grow despite the shaky conditions on the national level. Making these predictions more difficult are the persistent fluctuations in the stock market, the transition in the White House and Congress, terrorism activities and the growing shortage of electricity in California. 45 Forecast 2000
Forecast of Countywide Employment Growth When reference to employment is made, there is a distinction between wage and salary employment, which does not contain any self-employed persons, and total employment that does include the self-employed. Self-employed persons are difficult to enumerate and so are not directly included in the RGF, but need to be accounted for in the total employment picture. Some self-employed persons work out of their homes that can reduce the need for additional commercial space. On the other hand some homeowners associations disallow home based businesses. Fortunately, there are estimates from the census as shown in Table 3-1. The year 2000 is based on historical trends since 2000 Census worker data is not currently available. Table 3-1 Self-Employed Workers, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 (estimated)
Region 1970 Percent South Coast 5,561 71.5% Santa Ynez Valley 374 4.8% Lompoc Valley 698 9.0% Santa Maria Valley 1,142 14.7% County 7,775 100% Year 2000 is estimated based on linear trend. 1980 8,463 1,049 896 1,928 12,336 Percent 68.6% 8.5% 7.3% 15.6% 100% 1990 11,446 1,674 1,468 3,202 17,786 Percent 64.4% 9.4% 8.2% 18.0% 100% 2000 13,420 2,200 1,980 4,400 22,000 Percent 61% 10% 9% 20% 100%
Historic data from the State Employment Development Department (EDD) provides annual average wage and salary employment from 1972 to 1999. Seasonal employment peaks are included in this coverage and unemployment rates are considered constant. This data provides a historical perspective from which to develop a forecast. Another prime source of employment forecasts is the annual UCSB Economic Forecast Project. The RGF 2000 forecast was developed using countywide historical EDD data (1972-1999) and a recent short term economic forecast (2000-2009) by the 2000 UCSB Economic Outlook. This data was used to develop a trend to the year 2030. The trend or regression method simply finds the best fit of a line through a plot of existing data and continues with a similar trend or slope towards the future forecast periods. The forecast takes a long-term view and as such does not fluctuate based on short term economic activity. The state and national economic influences on the county will likely continue to increase economic growth in the short term. A reduced rate of growth is forecast after 2005 due to the influences of higher interest rates, changes in the economic structure of the state, high housing and land development costs, and, other factors which will likely reduce California's competitive edge, and other local factors such as the lack of available vacant land in the South Coast. The forecast results in the addition of 79,000 jobs between 2000 and 2030, a 44 percent increase over the 30 year period. An 8.4 percent increase is forecast to occur between 2000-2005 and 5 to 6 percent increases every five-year period thereafter to 2030.
46
Forecast 2000
Figure 3-1 Countywide Wage and Salary Employment, 1972-2030
300,000
250,000 Year 2010-2030 SBCAG Forecast Employment Year 2000-2009 UCSB Economic Forecast Data Year 1972-1999 Historical Wage and Salary Employment
200,000 Employment
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 29
Year
Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20002030
Employment 178,000 193,000 205,000 218,000 231,000 244,000 257,000 79,000
Percent Change 2000-2000 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 8.4% 6.2% 6.3% 6.0% 5.6% 5.3% 44.0%
47
Forecast 2000
Employment by Economic Sector The economic sectors that make up wage and salary employment are based on a standard industrial classification system (SIC codes) used by a variety of government agencies to track and report on employment. The SIC system is being replaced by NAICS which provides a more modern and up to date classification system more relevant to todays technology based economy. Unfortunately there is no historical data based on the new system for forecasting individual economic sectors. The major economic categories used to classify employment in this analysis are defined by the Department of Labor in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. Some of the larger employers of each category are given in the following section. Agriculture Includes those employed in seed production, tree crops, greenhouses, fishing and indirect services such as nurseries. Betteravia Farms in Santa Maria with 308 employees is an example. Mining/Oil and Gas Extraction Employment associated with on and offshore oil and gas exploration and mineral extraction such as World Minerals in Lompoc with 594 employees. Construction Contractors, plumbers, painters, roofers, are included as well as specialized firms such as Martin Marietta at Vandenberg AFB. Manufacturing McGhan Medical with about 693 medical device-manufacturing employees is an example in this category. Transportation and Public Utilities Employees of GTE, PG&E, Southern California Edison, and So. Cal. Gas are located here as well as local airline employees. Wholesale Trade Jordano's, a food distributor with 303 employees, falls into this category. Retail Trade Auto dealers, restaurants, drugstores, and shopping retailers such as Nordstroms (324) and Sears (340 countywide) are included. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Banks, credit unions, real estate agents, and title insurance companies are all within this category. Santa Barbara Bank and Trust with 883 employees is an example. Services Hotels and lodging places such as the Biltmore with several hundred full and part time employees, Fess Parkers Doubletree Resort (420) as well as Mission Linen Supply (180), a business service, fall into this category. Education services include public schools such as UCSB (9,175) and private schools: Westmont College (360) and Brooks Institute. Government Government employment includes civilian employees at the local city level (Santa Barbara City 1,046 employees in 2001) and county (County of Santa Barbara, 4,215), state (UCSB 9,175), and federal (Vandenberg AFB, 5,235, Lompoc Federal Penitentiary 800). 48 Forecast 2000
Service and retail related employment are forecast to make up a larger percentage of the workforce over time as other employment categories either decline, such as manufacturing, or, level off, such as finance as shown in Figure 3-2. The government sector shows several trends as shown in Figure 3-3. First, state and local government employment has increased somewhat. Second, the federal civil service employment has maintained a consistent level throughout the 1970-1995 period. Third, military employment has declined to half its previous levels. Figure 3-2 Santa Barbara County, Non-farm Private Employment, 1970-1995
80
60
40
20
0 1970
1975
Forestry, Fishing Retail Mining Finance
1980
Constr. Services
1985
Manufact. Transport.
1990
Wholesale
1995
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 3-3 Santa Barbara County, Government Employment, 1970-1995
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970
1975
1980
Federal Civilian Military
1985
State and Local
1990
1995
Bureau of Economic Analysis
49
Forecast 2000
Historical data from the California Employment Development Department for economic sectors is compared with forecast employment to 2030. The forecast to 2030 for all sectors rely partially on a linear trend as the predictor of future values. Figure 3-4 shows changes in the economic sector distribution for 1983, 1999, and 2030. The most significant shift is in the manufacturing sector that drops down from 16 percent (of the 133,900 total) in 1983 to 11 percent (of a 257,000 total) in 2030. The proportion of employment in government also drops from 18 percent in 1983 to 16 percent by 2030. Conversely, services and construction increase from 25 and 3 percent respectively in 1983 to 30 and 9 percent by 2030. Mining, wholesale trade, finance, and transportation remain fairly constant in their proportions of total employment. Figure 3-4 Employment By Sector, 1983, 1999 and 2030
Agriculture 6% Government 18%
Mining 1%
Construction 3% Manufacturing 16% Transportation & Public Utilities 4% Wholesale Trade 3%
Services 25%
Retail Trade 19%
50
Forecast 2000
Employment by SIC in 1999 178,000 Total Mining 1% Construction 4% Manufacturing 10% Transportation & Public Utilities 3% Services 28% Wholesale Trade 3% Retail Trade 19%
Government 19%
Agriculture 9%
Employment by SIC in 2030 257,000 Total Agriculture Mining 8% 0%
Government 16%
Construction 9%
Manufacturing 11% Transportation & Public Utilities 2% Wholesale Trade 4% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 3% Retail Trade 17%
Services 30%
51
Forecast 2000
The growth rates for individual economic sectors countywide are shown in Table 3-2. Table 3-2 Countywide Economic Growth By Sector, 2000-2030
COUNTY TOTAL 2000 2000-2005 GROWTH RATE COUNTY TOTAL 2005 2005-2010 GROWTH RATE COUNTY TOTAL 2010 2010-2015 GROWTH RATE COUNTY TOTAL 2015
Employment Sector
Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Services Government
15,500 900 8,000 18,200 5,200 5,700 33,800 7,500 50,200 33,400
0.64% 2.13% 5.79% 2.11% 0.38% 1.37% 0.99% 0.53% 1.69% 1.23%
16,000 1,000 10,600 20,200 5,300 6,100 35,500 7,700 54,600 35,500
1.22% 0.40% 4.33% 1.44% 0.74% 1.89% 0.83% 0.51% 1.56% 0.56%
17,000 1,020 13,100 21,700 5,500 6,700 37,000 7,900 59,000 36,500
1.15% 0.39% 3.55% 1.35% 0.72% 1.73% 0.80% 0.50% 1.45% 0.54%
18,000 1,040 15,600 23,200 5,700 7,300 38,500 8,100 63,400 37,500
TOTAL
178,000
1.63%
193,000
1.21%
205,000
1.24%
218,000
Employment Sector
2015-2020 GROWTH RATE
COUNTY TOTAL 2020
COUNTY TOTAL 2025
COUNTY TOTAL 2030
1.09% 0.38% 3.02% 1.26% 0.69% 1.59% 0.77% 0.49% 1.35% 0.53%
19,000 1,060 18,100 24,700 5,900 7,900 40,000 8,300 67,800 38,500
1.03% 0.37% 2.62% 1.19% 0.67% 1.47% 0.74% 0.48% 1.27% 0.44%
20,000 1,080 20,600 26,200 6,100 8,500 41,500 8,500 72,200 39,360
0.98% 0.37% 2.32% 1.12% 0.65% 1.37% 0.71% 0.47% 1.19% 0.42%
21,000 1,100 23,100 27,700 6,300 9,100 43,000 8,700 76,600 40,200
TOTAL
1.17%
231,000
1.10%
244,000
1.04%
257,000
52
Forecast 2000
Allocation of Existing and Forecast Employment to Subregions The final step in the employment forecast is to distribute countywide employment by sector to subregions. It has always been difficult to develop sub county employment estimates. Fortunately, the 1997 Zip Code Business Pattern Data from the Federal Department of Commerce (DOC), Bureau of the Census, provides zip code level data that is used to approximate subregions. The data is based on the annual Survey of Manufacturers as well as administrative records of the IRS and Social Security Administration. The Department of Commerce employment data by zip codes was used in allocating jobs to subregions for the initial 2000-2005 periods. For future forecast years the following subregion economic profiles provide the qualitative basis for any changes in the initial allocations. In addition, the availability of commercial, retail and industrial land is taken into consideration. While new employment opportunities should not exceed the capacity of available land, an evaluation of land availability shows that there may be a shortage of vacant land for future employment development in the South Coast and Lompoc subregions. This issue is discussed in the Constraints Chapter. Santa Maria Subregion The Santa Maria region will retain its importance as a regional retail-service center and increase its share of total county employment. Retail sales remain strong in Santa Maria, drawing customers in from Solvang to Paso Robles. Retail sales were $720 million for 1997 up 1.3 percent from $700 million in 1996. Santa Maria is being promoted as the Central Coast's regional shopping center with the 510,000 square foot Crossroads shopping center now open. The Santa Maria Auto Plaza will be developed west of the Crossroads Commercial Center with six new dealerships on 19 acres. In Orcutt the Oak Knolls Village Shopping Center will undergo a major remodeling and an Albertsons Market has been added. A 55,000 square foot warehouse and distribution center on Industrial Parkway is proposed for Coca Cola. Santa Maria Salads intends to build a 65,000 square foot processing facility on 8 acres on West Stowell. Phase II of the Central Coast Professional Park is comprised of 80,000 square feet of office space on 3.5 acres. The Santa Maria Research Park Specific Plan will add up to 3,737,000 Sq. Ft. of commercial/industrial space. The long term potential for commercial space launch activities at Vandenberg AFB is making up for defense industry losses. Commercial launch activities however have recently been curtailed due to financial viability of space-based communications systems. A reusable Launch Vehicle is also being developed that may use the Vandenberg AFBs airfield although other sites are being considered. Vandenberg AFB will continue in its importance as new commercial space ventures are implemented in early part of 2000-2005. There were 16 launches at the base in 2000 and for 2001 Vandenberg has 15 launches scheduled. At Vandenberg there are 3,150 military employees, 1,090 civilian government and 4,680 contractor employees. A large labor force and affordable housing will likely entice additional development to the Santa Maria Subregion. The community plan for the Orcutt area has been completed. A major county goal in this plan is to review the potential for increases in commercial development and the possible development of a regional shopping center.
53
Forecast 2000
Lompoc Subregion Lompoc economic development efforts resulted in two major retail centers opening in the 19921993 time period with a Wal-Mart, Mervyns, Albertsons, and Payless Drug Store. The challenge of attracting and retaining major retailers was illustrated with the closure of the Pennys store, as a result of a national draw-down of stores. However, the new stores will retain more Lompoc Valley residents who previously shopped out of the city and also attract customers from the Santa Ynez Valley increasing sales tax revenue. Retail sales of $53.3 million for second quarter 1999 are up from the same period last year. The addition of FoodsCo, Staples, Vons and the return of K-Mart helped provided the added boost. However, Lompoc is assumed to have only limited success in attracting new industry to its Central Avenue Industrial Park. However, additional growth is forecast at Alan Hancock College a 60,000 square foot satellite campus on 23 acres off the Lompoc Casmalia Road. In addition, a 44,500 square foot assisted living center has been completed. The currently vacant Grefco Minerals plant, on a 9.5-acre parcel in the southeast entrance to Lompoc City, is being converted to a winery and tasting facility. A new 70,000 square foot plastic and packaging facility by Pactuco will add 200-300 new jobs. The dominant role Vandenberg AFB plays in the area was displayed in the mid 1980's during the employment buildup for the space shuttle program and the resulting sharp decline after the Challenger disaster. A continuing, but less dominant, role is anticipated to result in new manufacturing and construction employment as launch facilities are used for commercial applications. Vandenberg AFB is also expected to be the recipient of additional personnel and programs as a result of continued nationwide realignments of defense programs that began in the early 1990's. For example, in 1993 the 14th Air Force and 20th Air Force were transferred to Vandenberg AFB from other bases. In addition, VAFB may be the recipient of additional defense programs such as the Airborne Laser Program that could add 500 additional personnel for a few years after 2005. The Federal Prison has proposed plans for a significant expanded phasing of its existing facilities that would add up to 1,000 additional inmates and the resulting support staff. Santa Ynez Subregion An estimated 2 million tourists visit Solvang annually and with additional visitor serving facilities more can be accommodated. The city's general plan recognizes potential for growth in the tourism industry and allocates ample space to accommodate growth. Industrial uses are not encouraged. Commercial facilities are given a high priority with approximately 400,000 additional square feet remaining under the general plan. Recently however, there is pressure to mix residential development with the remaining commercial. It is anticipated that there will be a decline in the number of agricultural jobs due to increased parcelization of the valley and additional urban jobs. A satellite campus of Allan Hancock College has been recently opened with an enrollment of approximately 250 and a staff of 20-30. There will likely be additional manufacturing and service jobs as the City of Buellton continues to expand. However, the retail and services catering to tourists will remain the dominant economic force. The City of Buellton is poised for additional commercial and retail growth. Before incorporation the county had not issued any new permits in Buellton for several years and so there existed some latent demand. The Buellton Business Park is an approved plan to create a 23-acre commercial development and the Zaca Creek Business Park is a 30,000 square foot project on 2.5 acres. Other projects include the Firestone Walker Brewery 16,000 square foot facility as well as the Todd Industrial Building a 14,000 square foot commercial-industrial facility. The unincorporated areas of Santa Ynez and Los Olivos have each had small hotels approved 54 Forecast 2000
for construction. The wine industry continues to increase production and planting of new vineyards throughout the valley although recently there seems to be an oversupply that could influence future production. The expansion of the Chumash Casino by 40,000 square feet will likely attract more players and add additional service related employment to the Santa Ynez valley. South Coast Subregion Since the previous RGF 94, economic conditions have improved and the resulting economic and development growth has been significant. Retail sales in Santa Barbara City have increased over 7 percent between 1995 and 1996 and 5 percent between 1996 and 1997 and about 4 percent annually for 1998, 1999 and 2000. Recent development projects include a new grocery chain store on Carrillo Street, and, several proposed hotel developments including the 96 room Hotel Carillo. Goleta has numerous office and industrial developments recently completed or under construction. These include a 68,000 square foot expansion for Mentor Corporation, Raytheons 204,000 square foot facility, Phase III and IV of the 227,000 square feet Castilian Technology Center, the 500,000 square foot Camino Real Marketplace, the largest land use project built in the south county this decade, and the Bacara Resort with its 500 new jobs. In addition, the UCSB Long Range Development Plan includes $28 million dollars worth of campus renovations and seismic upgrading as well as a $28 million dollar dormitory addition. Limited vacant land, and Measure E restrictions will limit the potential for nonresidential development in the Santa Barbara city limits (which includes the Municipal Airport). However, employee densities in downtown Santa Barbara will likely increase due to high rents and more intensive use of available facilities with improved access to the waterfront and the existence of a downtown shopping "magnet" which attracts other new business. The Goleta area will also experience some growth limits due to the Goleta Growth Management Ordinance (GGMO) currently in place as well as developer impact fees. The GGMO has been extended to the year 2008 and the total annual allocation of commercial/industrial development reduced from 95,000 square feet to 80,000 square feet for a total of 804,500 square feet through the end of the ordinance. The Community Plan for Montecito limits commercial growth to the existing commercial areas and industrial uses are prohibited in the community. The status of the numerous proposed greenhouses is at stake in the Carpinteria Valley Greenhouse Program, which would allow an additional 3 million square feet of greenhouse development. An EIR has been completed and the issue of greenhouse expansion is currently under discussion by various environmental interest groups and local governments. The extent to which the greenhouses represent an agricultural vs. industrial use and the impacts of additional employment on housing needs in the city of Carpinteria and the unincorporated area are some of the issues associated with this development. The City of Carpinteria has several new projects including Bluffs 2 with 30,000 square feet of new office space, Bluffs 3 is zoned for a hotel/resort which if proposed could experience strong public opposition, Lagunitas with the potential for 160,000 square feet of R and D and residential, and potential development of the 60 acre Veneco Oil Company site. Development in the City of Carpinteria is subject to review by the California Coastal Commission since the entire city is within the coastal zone. The following Table 3-3 delineates jobs by subregion and Tables 3-5 to 3-7 by employment sector and subregion. Tables 3-8 to 3-12 show percent distribution by employment sector. This 55 Forecast 2000
subregional employment is initially based on the zip code level employment data discussed earlier in this chapter and modified in future forecast periods based on knowledge of new employment opportunities.
Table 3-3 Subregion Employment, 2000-2030

SUBREGION EMPLOYMENT 2000-2030
Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total Change
South Coast Santa Ynez Jobs Jobs 108,207 8,528 116,678 9,145 124,539 9,770 132,245 10,396 140,081 11,011 147,622 11,630 155,331 12,249 47,124 3,721
Lompoc Santa Maria Jobs Jobs 20,157 41,508 21,602 45,075 22,990 48,121 24,377 51,322 25,775 54,393 26,941 57,847 28,293 60,927 8,136 19,419
COUNTY TOTAL 178,000 193,000 205,000 218,000 231,000 244,000 257,000 79,000
PERCENT CHANGE 2000-2030 South Coast Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria Subregion Subregion Subregion Subregion 7.8% 7.2% 7.2% 8.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.8% 6.2% 6.4% 6.0% 6.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.7% 6.0% 5.4% 5.6% 4.5% 6.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0% 5.3% 43.5% 43.6% 40.4% 46.8% COUNTY TOTAL 8.4% 6.2% 6.3% 6.0% 5.6% 5.3% 44.4%
Period 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Total Change
56
Forecast 2000
Table 3-4 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector, 2000 and 2005
2000 COUNTY JOBS BY SUBREGION South Coast Jobs 2000 Santa Ynez Jobs 2000 Lompoc Jobs 2000 Santa Maria Jobs 2000
Employment Sector
COUNTY TOTAL
3,410 333 4,800 11,648 2,236 3,420 19,942 5,400 35,642 21,376
2,170 63 480 182 260 114 1,690 225 2,008 1,336
1,395 27 800 3,640 468 285 3,380 300 4,518 5,344
8,525 477 1,920 2,730 2,236 1,881 8,788 1,575 8,032 5,344
15,500 900 8,000 18,200 5,200 5,700 33,800 7,500 50,200 33,400
Total
108,207
8,528
20,157
41,508
178,400
Employment Sector
COUNTY TOTAL
3,520 370 6,148 12,726 2,279 3,660 20,945 5,544 38,766 22,720
2,240 70 636 202 265 122 1,775 231 2,184 1,420
1,440 30 1,060 3,838 477 305 3,550 308 4,914 5,680
8,800 530 2,756 3,434 2,279 2,013 9,230 1,617 8,736 5,680
16,000 1,000 10,600 20,200 5,300 6,100 35,500 7,700 54,600 35,500
Total
116,678
9,145
21,602
45,075
192,500
57
Forecast 2000
Employment Sector
COUNTY TOTAL
3,740 377 7,598 13,671 2,365 4,020 21,830 5,688 41,890 23,360
2,380 71 786 217 275 134 1,850 237 2,360 1,460
1,530 31 1,310 4,123 495 335 3,700 316 5,310 5,840
9,350 541 3,406 3,689 2,365 2,211 9,620 1,659 9,440 5,840
17,000 1,020 13,100 21,700 5,500 6,700 37,000 7,900 59,000 36,500
Total
124,539
9,770
22,990
48,121
205,420
Employment Sector
COUNTY TOTAL
3,960 385 8,892 14,616 2,451 4,380 22,715 5,832 45,014 24,000
2,520 73 936 232 285 146 1,925 243 2,536 1,500
1,620 31 1,560 4,408 513 365 3,850 324 5,706 6,000
9,900 551 4,212 3,944 2,451 2,409 10,010 1,701 10,144 6,000
18,000 1,040 15,600 23,200 5,700 7,300 38,500 8,100 63,400 37,500
Total
132,245
10,396
24,377
51,322
218,340
58
Forecast 2000
Employment Sector
COUNTY TOTAL
4,180 392 10,317 15,561 2,537 4,740 23,600 5,976 48,138 24,640
2,660 64 1,086 247 295 158 2,000 249 2,712 1,540
1,710 42 1,810 4,693 531 395 4,000 332 6,102 6,160
10,450 562 4,887 4,199 2,537 2,607 10,400 1,743 10,848 6,160
19,000 1,060 18,100 24,700 5,900 7,900 40,000 8,300 67,800 38,500
Total
140,081
11,011
25,775
54,393
231,260
Employment Sector
COUNTY TOTAL
4,400 400 11,536 16,506 2,623 5,100 24,485 6,120 51,262 25,190
2,800 65 1,236 262 305 170 2,075 255 2,888 1,574
1,600 43 2,060 4,978 549 425 4,150 340 6,498 6,298
11,200 572 5,768 4,454 2,623 2,805 10,790 1,785 11,552 6,298
20,000 1,080 20,600 26,200 6,100 8,500 41,500 8,500 72,200 39,360
Total
147,622
11,630
26,941
57,847
244,040
59
Forecast 2000
Table 3-7 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector, 2030

Employment Sector
COUNTY TOTAL
4,620 407 12,936 17,451 2,709 5,460 25,370 6,264 54,386 25,728
2,940 66 1,386 277 315 182 2,150 261 3,064 1,608
1,680 44 2,310 5,263 567 455 4,300 348 6,894 6,432
11,760 583 6,468 4,709 2,709 3,003 11,180 1,827 12,256 6,432
21,000 1,100 23,100 27,700 6,300 9,100 43,000 8,700 76,600 40,200
Total
155,331
12,249
28,293
60,927
256,800
60
Forecast 2000
Table 3-8 Job Distribution by Sector, South Coast and Santa Ynez, 2000-2030
SOUTH COAST
Employment Sector
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
3.2% 0.3% 4.4% 10.8% 2.1% 3.2% 18.4% 5.0% 32.9% 19.8%
3.0% 0.3% 5.3% 10.9% 2.0% 3.1% 18.0% 4.8% 33.2% 19.5%
3.0% 0.3% 6.1% 11.0% 1.9% 3.2% 17.5% 4.6% 33.6% 18.8%
3.0% 0.3% 6.7% 11.1% 1.9% 3.3% 17.2% 4.4% 34.0% 18.1%
3.0% 0.3% 7.4% 11.1% 1.8% 3.4% 16.8% 4.3% 34.4% 17.6%
3.0% 0.3% 7.8% 11.2% 1.8% 3.5% 16.6% 4.1% 34.7% 17.1%
3.0% 0.3% 8.3% 11.2% 1.7% 3.5% 16.3% 4.0% 35.0% 16.6%
TOTAL
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
SANTA YNEZ
Employment Sector
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
25.4% 0.7% 5.6% 2.1% 3.0% 1.3% 19.8% 2.6% 23.5% 15.7%
24.5% 0.8% 7.0% 2.2% 2.9% 1.3% 19.4% 2.5% 23.9% 15.5%
24.4% 0.7% 8.0% 2.2% 2.8% 1.4% 18.9% 2.4% 24.2% 14.9%
24.2% 0.7% 9.0% 2.2% 2.7% 1.4% 18.5% 2.3% 24.4% 14.4%
24.2% 0.6% 9.9% 2.2% 2.7% 1.4% 18.2% 2.3% 24.6% 14.0%
24.1% 0.6% 10.6% 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 17.8% 2.2% 24.8% 13.5%
24.0% 0.5% 11.3% 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 17.6% 2.1% 25.0% 13.1%
TOTAL
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
61
Forecast 2000
Table 3-9 Job Distribution by Sector, Lompoc and Santa Maria, 2000-2030
LOMPOC
Employment Sector
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
6.9% 0.1% 4.0% 18.1% 2.3% 1.4% 16.8% 1.5% 22.4% 26.5%
6.7% 0.1% 4.9% 17.8% 2.2% 1.4% 16.4% 1.4% 22.7% 26.3%
6.7% 0.1% 5.7% 17.9% 2.2% 1.5% 16.1% 1.4% 23.1% 25.4%
6.6% 0.1% 6.4% 18.1% 2.1% 1.5% 15.8% 1.3% 23.4% 24.6%
6.6% 0.2% 7.0% 18.2% 2.1% 1.5% 15.5% 1.3% 23.7% 23.9%
5.9% 0.2% 7.6% 18.5% 2.0% 1.6% 15.4% 1.3% 24.1% 23.4%
5.9% 0.2% 8.2% 18.6% 2.0% 1.6% 15.2% 1.2% 24.4% 22.7%
TOTAL
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
SANTA MARIA
Employment Sector
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
20.5% 1.1% 4.6% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 21.2% 3.8% 19.4% 12.9%
19.5% 1.2% 6.1% 7.6% 5.1% 4.5% 20.5% 3.6% 19.4% 12.6%
19.4% 1.1% 7.1% 7.7% 4.9% 4.6% 20.0% 3.4% 19.6% 12.1%
19.3% 1.1% 8.2% 7.7% 4.8% 4.7% 19.5% 3.3% 19.8% 11.7%
19.2% 1.0% 9.0% 7.7% 4.7% 4.8% 19.1% 3.2% 19.9% 11.3%
19.4% 1.0% 10.0% 7.7% 4.5% 4.8% 18.7% 3.1% 20.0% 10.9%
19.3% 1.0% 10.6% 7.7% 4.4% 4.9% 18.3% 3.0% 20.1% 10.6%
TOTAL
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
62
Forecast 2000
Table 3-10 Countywide Job Distribution 2000-2030

Employment Sector 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
8.7% 0.5% 4.5% 10.2% 2.9% 3.2% 19.0% 4.2% 28.2% 18.8%
8.3% 0.5% 5.5% 10.5% 2.7% 3.2% 18.4% 4.0% 28.3% 18.4%
8.3% 0.5% 6.4% 10.6% 2.7% 3.3% 18.0% 3.9% 28.8% 17.8%
8.3% 0.5% 7.2% 10.6% 2.6% 3.3% 17.7% 3.7% 29.1% 17.2%
8.2% 0.5% 7.8% 10.7% 2.6% 3.4% 17.3% 3.6% 29.4% 16.7%
8.2% 0.4% 8.4% 10.7% 2.5% 3.5% 17.0% 3.5% 29.6% 16.1%
8.2% 0.4% 9.0% 10.8% 2.5% 3.5% 16.7% 3.4% 29.8% 15.6%
TOTAL
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
63
Forecast 2000
Chapter 4 Constraints
Introduction An analysis of land use availability and consumption is an important element of the growth forecast. This chapter describes how the residential, commercial, industrial, and retail land uses provide for or constrain the forecast of employment and population growth in the 2000-2030 period. Other constraining elements of the forecast such as household size and workers per household assumptions are also reviewed. Development Potential Limitations on land availability can effect new residential and employment development. These limitations are used in the forecast model to simulate the effects of local jurisdictions general plans on population and employment growth. The land use data consists of residential, commercial, retail, and industrial zoned land, which has not yet been developed or has potential for increased density and as such, is available for future development. Note that the "theoretical" buildout as described in this report may not reach 100 percent due to market forces or other factors. These other factors include constraints determined through environmental review of individual projects outside the scope of the RGF. For example: The City of Carpinteria is unlike any other local agency in the County as it is located entirely within the Coastal Zone. With this unique characteristic, there are specific Coastal Act policies that restrict the Citys growth potential. More specifically: Section 30241 of the Coastal Act requires prime agricultural land to be maintained; Section 30242 of the Coastal Act requires that lands suitable for agricultural use shall not be converted to nonagricultural use; Section 30250 of the Coastal Act requires new residential development be constructed within or in proximity to existing developed areas able to accommodate such growth and that will not impact coastal resources (i.e., Agricultural uses); Section 30255 of the Coastal Act requires that coastal-dependant developments have priority over other developments on or near the shoreline.
In addition, density bonus policies are not factored into the buildout assessment. It is also important to note that land use policies are subject to change due to statewide and local growth pressures. A potential annexation would be factored into the buildout assessment if it were likely to occur according to local agency staff. Discussions between technical staff during the preparation of this forecast illustrate the difficulty of quantifying total buildout. These estimates are subject to change and are not precise estimates. Buildout consists of new units on currently vacant land that has residential potential, and, reuse or redevelopment of existing land at higher densities. The RGF is updated periodically to reflect future changes in land use or additional proposed annexations. The County Planning and Development Department has recently used the Tax Assessors database to determine the raw acres of developed and vacant residential and nonresidential land. Only parcels of 4 acres or larger were included. This data was verified where possible with supplemental information from local land use plans and contacts within each jurisdiction. The data was used in a November 2000 County Planning and Development publication titled Santa Barbara County 2030 Land and Population. Although the accuracy of this database has been questioned it has been used to determine the amount of available land in unincorporated areas where no other source of land use data was available. 64 Forecast 2000
The Tax Assessors regional totals were used as a control. For the unincorporated Lompoc and Santa Ynez valley city level data was subtracted from the regional total to provide unincorporated housing potential. For example, the City of Lompoc data was available from the Housing Element, updated by staff. The 2,200 units were subtracted (at 6 units per acre) from the tax assessors valleywide total of vacant land that is converted to available housing at a lower rural density of 3 units per acre. The development potential of agricultural land uses such as greenhouses, wineries, and other land uses, which can generate a significant amount of employment has not been estimated. This might be the subject of further inquiry by the County since the impact of these uses on the housing demands in the cities and unincorporated areas can be significant. Table 4-1 contains the buildout estimates for potentially available residential housing units that are used as constraints in the forecast model. The sources of land use data are cited in the table. Table 4-1 Theoretical Potential Additional Residential Units At "Buildout"
Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Unincorp. Area SB Unincorp. Area Maximum Residential Units Source
10,070 Total 670 General Plan EIR, 2001. Confirmation with staff, Paul Kermoyan, 2001. Includes
potential annexations of land that may have existing units. 6/2001.
3,200 Community Development Department 2000. Housing Issues Technical Paper, 800 Draft Toro Canyon Community Plan 600 units. Final Toro Canyon Plan may be less
at 300 units. Summerland Community Plan 200 units, updated with permit data.
5,400 Goleta Community Plan 2000-2,400 units. UCSB 972 1 room apts. and 84-144 3 bd.
units. Montecito, Mission Canyon, Los Positas, Gaviota, 600 units. Includes the new City of Goleta with approximately 1,400 units extracted from the Goleta Valley Outlook 1998 (does not include the Bishop Ranch agricultural area).
Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Unincorp. Area Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Unincorp. Area Guad. Unincorp. Area Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY Unincorp Area City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total
3,790 Total 2,200 Housing Element, 1997. Confirmation with staff-Arleen Pelster January. 2002. 1,590 Tax Assessors inventory, 2000. 15,070 Total 7,770 Land Use Report, 2000. Includes Enos-Buss annexation of 700 units. Confirmation
with staff-Bill Shipsey 8/2001.
550 September 2000, Confirmation with staff-Tod Brussard. 6,500 1998 Orcutt newsletter and County 2030 forecast shows 5,587 units. Includes
Phase II of Orcutt Community Plan (2,500 units). Also includes Los Alamos and other unincorp. Areas. 250 County Land Use Element Total October 2001, Confirmation with staff-George Hanson. Tax Assessors Inventory, 2000. City of Buellton Urban and Economic Growth Report, February 2000. SB County Housing Element, 1993
1,940 450 790 700 1,900 33,000
65
Forecast 2000
Figures 4-1 graphically portrays the distribution of theoretical buildout capacity of 33,000 housing units countywide by subregion. Figure 4-1 Distribution of Housing Unit Theoretical Buildout Capacity, By Subregions, (33,000 Residential Units)
Cuyama Santa Ynez 6% 6% South Coast 30%
Santa Maria 46%
Lompoc 12%
66
Forecast 2000
Table 4-2 contains an estimate for future commercial, retail, industrial development (in square feet). The sources of land use data are cited in the table. The Goleta valley data is from the 1993 Community Plan updated by subtracting out large projects built since the adoption of the plan such as the Camino Real Center. In addition, the Old Town Goleta Redevelopment Plan adds approximately 1 million square feet to the total available. Table 4-2 Potential for Future Industrial, Commercial, and Retail Development
Jurisdiction
South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp -Uninc. SB Uninc
Potential Future Development Square Feet

10,183,800 447,000 1,384,800 139,000 8,213,000
Source
Subregion Total General Plan Update, 8/2001 Measure E inventory Update, 8/2001 Summerland Community Plan No greenhouses included Goleta Community Plan 1993 And Old Town Goleta Redevelopment Plan. City of Goleta-1998 Goleta Valley Outlook at 2,438,000
Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Uninc
5,140,000 4,269,000 871,000
Subregion Total Staff update Arleen Pelster, 8/2001 County Staff, 1997
Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria
11,574,000 6,523,000
Subregion Total Staff update, Bill Shipsey 2001 Staff update, Todd Brusard 2001 County 2030 Land and Population Report-Valley total less city estimates.
City of Guadalupe SM Uninc Guad./Cuyama-Uninc.
1,742,000 3,309,000 N/A
Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang City of Buellton SY-Uninc
2,688,000 400,000 1,650,000 638,000
Subregion Total Santa Ynez Valley Newsletter 2001-187 Acres Staff update, George Hanson 10/2001 Staff update, Ray Severn S.Y. Valley Newsletter total Less City estimates.
29,585,800 County Total Vandenberg Air Force Base and UCSB and the SY Indian Reservation are not included in this assessment since local land use controls do not apply.
67
Forecast 2000
Figure 4-2 Distribution of Non-Residential Theoretical Buildout Capacity, By Subregion, (29.6 million Square Feet)
Santa Ynez 9% South Coast 34%
Santa Maria 40%
Lompoc 17%
68
Forecast 2000
Residential Construction Rate and Buildout Residential build out estimates are constrained in each five year period by a "Construction Ceiling" that restricts additional new housing constructed beyond the average of units permitted between 1990 and 2000. The housing construction rate data comes from the Construction Industry Research Board as reported by the UCSB Economic Forecast Project. This rate gives a more realistic simulation of the potential for residential unit growth, reflecting historic permitting activity, interest rates, and market demand. Local policies also impact the future rate of growth. For example, in the South Coast, the county currently has a growth management ordinance that limits new market rate units in Goleta to 200 annually, and, in Montecito to less than 20 units annually. The City of Solvang currently limits its annual housing growth to 50 units or 3 percent of its housing stock, with exemptions for mixed-use development. In addition, the rate could be constrained by other issues. For example the City of Carpinteria and areas of the south coast are in the coastal zone and developments approved by the local agencies in this area may be appealed to the Coastal Commission, thereby slowing the pace of development. Figure 4-3 shows the countywide effect of the construction rate and buildout on total capacity. Over 33,000 units are initially available. The assumed construction rate is higher because of the large number of units recently constructed. Due to the potential build out of several jurisdictions, 28,500 units are theoretically available over the 2000-2030 forecast period. Figure 4-3 Countywide Theoretical Housing Unit Constraints
From Land Use Plans
33,000 Units from Table 4-1
Residential Buildout Capacity
Historical Permit Activity used to pace development
Residential Construction Pacing
Units Available For Construction Over Forecast Period
Total Available 2000-2030
69
Forecast 2000
Table 4-4 provides the assumed maximum construction ceiling for each geographical area and fiveyear period in the county. The rates are consistent for each 5-year period because there are no buildout constraints in this assessment. To insure the short-term forecast reflects recent trends for the 2000-2005 period, data was compiled on the residential projects under construction and those recently approved and pending. This data showed that for Goleta, and the cities of Buellton and Santa Maria the historical average underestimated potential new development that could occur over the short term. The assumed short-term residential construction rate for these areas was increased to reflect approved and pending development. Table 4-4 Assumed Maximum Five Year Increment Housing Construction Ceiling, 2000-2030
20002005 1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 1,263 308 386 569 10 8,134 20052010 1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 1,263 308 386 569 10 8,134 20102015 1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 1,263 308 386 569 10 8,134 20152020 1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 1,263 308 386 569 10 8,134 20202025 1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 1,263 308 386 569 10 8,134 20252030 1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 1,263 308 386 569 10 8,134 20002030 11,385 300 1,851 612 8,622 5,676 2,076 3,600 24,108 13,428 204 10,416 60 7,575 1,848 2,313 3,414 60 48,804
Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Valley - Uninc. SB- Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley - Uninc.
Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Valley - Uninc. Guad. Valley - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY Valley - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion Countywide
70
Forecast 2000
Table 4-5 combines the maximum build out and the construction ceiling to develop an upper limit on residential development for each five-year period. This table shows potential total units, based on local land use plans, available from year 2000 onward. In some areas such as the unincorporated Santa Maria Subregion the amount of housing available runs out in 2020 as indicated by the 0 in that column. At the end of the forecast period in 2030 residential buildout is still not reached for many jurisdictions. There is an inventory of approximately 4,000 potential housing units countywide that could provide additional capacity after 2030. Table 4-5 Potential Residential Units, 2000-2030
20002005 20052010 20102015 20152020 20202025 20252030 20002030
Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Valley - Uninc. SB - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Valley - Uninc. Guad. Valley Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY Valley - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion Countywide
1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 1,263 308 386 569 10 8,124
1,898 50 309 102 1,437 946 346 600 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 659 142 386 131 10 7,520
1,898 50 309 102 1,437 746 346 400 4,018 2,238 34 1,736 10 21 0 21 0 10 6,683
1,550 50 309 102 1,089 346 346 0 2,467 1,056 34 1,367 10 0 0 0 0 10 4,363
461 50 309 102 0 346 346 0 44 0 34 0 10 0 0 0 0 10 851
461 50 309 102 0 346 346 0 44 0 34 0 10 0 0 0 0 10 851
8,163 300 1,851 612 5,400 3,676 2,076 1,600 14,609 7,770 204 6,575 60 1,942 450 792 700 60 28,390
71
Forecast 2000
The majority of the cities use all their available residentially zoned land over the 30 year forecast period with the following exceptions. The cities of Santa Barbara (1,800 units remaining), Guadalupe (390 units remaining), have residential land after 2030. The majority of the remaining residential land lies in the unincorporated areas. Table 4-6 summarizes how many housing units are available after combining the construction rate and buildout potential. Approximately 4,000 units remain at the end of the 2030 forecast period. Note that for some areas like the unincorporated Lompoc Valley, where the population dropped over the 1990-2000 period, additional housing units would in theory also be available although not represented in this analysis. Table 4-6 Summary of Remaining Housing Unit Capacity, After the 2030 Forecast Period
Units Used Remaining 2000-2030 Maximum Housing Forecast Buildout Unit Capacity
8,163 300 1,851 612 5,400 3,680 2,076 1,600 15,083 7,800 212 6,453 130 1,900 500 800 700 75 28,900 10,100 700 3,200 800 5,400 3,800 2,200 1,600 15,100 7,800 600 6,600 300 1,900 500 800 700 2,000 33,000 1,950 400 1,350 190 0 120 120 0 700 0 388 150 170 0 0 0 0 1,900 4,000
Jurisdiction
South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Valley - Uninc. SB - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Valley - Uninc. Guad. Valley - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY Valley - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total
72
Forecast 2000
A comparison between the forecast of constructed residential units and the estimates of available units derived from the local plans for each subregion is shown in Figure 4-4. New residential units constructed over the forecast period for all jurisdictions constitute approximately 28,400 units. There are approximately 5,000 units countywide that are still available at the end of the forecast period. Figure 4-4 Housing Unit Buildout and Developed From 2000-2030, by Subregion
16,000 14,000 12,000 Housing Units 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 S. Coast S. Ynez Buildout Santa Maria Developed Lompoc
73
Forecast 2000
Non-Residential (Employment based) Land Use Consumption The employment model converts new jobs into land use demand. This is necessary to determine how much land new jobs need, and how the land requirements compare with the capacity of commercial, industrial, and retail uses designated in local land use plans. Several steps and assumptions are required to conduct this analysis. The forecast of new jobs are transformed into demand for additional square feet of land by using the following methodology. First, every new job does not consume land. Most farming, fishing, or construction jobs can be spread across existing land. Other new jobs go into vacant space or result in increased densities of existing employment. Jobs such as those in the retail sector have more direct land use impacts. The data was developed in previous growth forecasts and is the result of an examination of the relationship between employment and land use needs. Each job by economic sector uses land based on the following Table 4-7. For example only 15 percent of agricultural jobs require land vs. 100 percent of retail jobs. Table 4-7 Percentage of Total Employment Forecast That Requires New Land
Employment Sector Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation Wholes. Trade Retail Trade Fin., Insur. R.E. Services Government
Percent Commercial 0% 5% 5% 5% 25% 0% 0% 100% 60% 100%
Percent Retail 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Percent Industrial 15% 10% 5% 95% 30% 100% 0% 0% 40% 0%
Percent Allocated 15% 15% 10% 100% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Second, the number of employees for any given employment sector varies so an employee density per acre factor is applied. These density factors link employment to land demand. The density factors estimate the number of workers associated with an acre of raw land. These average employee densities are taken from previous growth forecasts and data from San Diego Association of Governments. They are subject to variation due to specific types of employment, for example, apparel manufacturing has a higher density than furniture manufacturing. Density also varies by location, central city or suburban. Retail density is estimated at 44 employees/acre, Commercial at 85 employees/acre, and Industrial at 25 employees/acre. Third, the acreage of raw land needs to be converted into actual square feet of building space in demand. An average .33 Floor Area Ratio 74 Forecast 2000
(FAR) was assumed for all job related land uses. The FAR accounts for the ratio between the actual building space and the raw acres (remaining land area devoted to parking, landscaping, setbacks etc.). The forecast assumes that 33 percent of the available land is building space. In higher cost areas the FAR could easily exceed 33 percent. The following formula summarizes the methodology: (Building space demand in square feet = Jobs requiring land / Employee density per acre x Floor area ratio x 43,560 square feet per acre). Figures 4-5 to 4-7 show forecast employment requirements of commercial, retail, and industrial land for each subregion and forecast period based on the general employee density factors and FAR assumption. Note: The development potential of new agricultural land uses such as greenhouses, wineries, and other land uses, which can generate a significant amount of new employment, has not been estimated. This might be the subject of further inquiry by the County since the impact of these uses on the housing demands in the cities and unincorporated areas can be significant. Figure 4-5 Employment Based Land Use Requirements, 2000-2030, South Coast
1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 20002005 20052010 Commercial 20102015 20152020 Retail 20202025 Industrial 20252030
Discussions between technical staff during the preparation of this forecast illustrate the difficulty of forecasting future demand for land. In the South Coast high cost of land, development constraints, among other factors may slow the pace of new development and at the same time may also make redevelopment and higher densities in existing uses more attractive. The interplay of these market forces is hard to predict. 75 Forecast 2000
Figure 4-6 Employment Based Land Use Requirements, 2000-2030, Santa Maria and Lompoc Valley Santa Maria Valley
900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 20002005 20052010 Commercial 20102015 20152020 Retail 20202025 Industrial 20252030
Lompoc Valley
350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 20002005 20052010 20102015 20152020 20202025 Industrial 20252030
Commercial
Retail
76
Forecast 2000
Figure 4-7 Employment Based Land Use Requirements, 2000-2030, Santa Ynez Valley
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20002005 20052010 20102015 20152020 20202025 Industrial 20252030
Commercial
Retail
77
Forecast 2000
Figure 4-8 forecasts total commercial, retail and industrial land use requirements for the entire 20002030 period by subregions. The South Coast subregion is forecast to consume the largest amount of land for its future job demand, over 2.5 million square feet for commercial, 1.5 million square feet for retail, and close to 8.1 million square feet for industrial uses. Santa Maria has less demand at just over 6.5 million square feet for commercial, retail, and industrial land uses. The Lompoc subregion is forecast to consume 1.4 million square feet in commercial and about 2 million square feet for both retail and industrial land use. Santa Ynez is forecast to use less than .5 million square feet in all categories for the same period. Note that high industrial land use demand is in part due to increases in service employment, the category with the largest increase over the forecast period. Figure 4-8 Employment Based Land Use Requirements, By Subregion, 2000-2030
9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 South Coast Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria
Commercial
Retail
Industrial
78
Forecast 2000
Figure 4-9 compares the 2030 forecast use of commercial, industrial, and retail land with the ultimate theoretical buildout. The resulting comparison reveals that South Coast subregion may have deficiencies in vacant land at the end of the forecast period resulting in higher employment densities, increasing land costs and potential reduction in future job growth. It is assumed that employment densities will increase in deficient areas and additional capacity will be generated through redevelopment. For example, in the Santa Barbara airport business park and the lower State Street area high land costs, increased demand, and appropriate zoning has made it feasible to build higher density projects. With a 20 percent increase in existing densities for the Santa Barbara subregion 26,000 workers can potentially be accommodated. This reduces the need for additional land to accommodate more workers. The extent to which this will occur was the subject of some debate among the technical staff representatives. Table 4-8 shows the existing employment densities and the forecast densities with increases to the Lompoc and South Coast subregions. Figure 4-9 Forecast Use vs. Buildout of Available Space, For Commercial, Industrial, and Retail by Subregion, 2000-2030
14,000,000 12,000,000
Square Feet
10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 South Coast Santa Ynez Forecast Lompoc Available Santa Maria
Table 4-8 Existing and Forecast Employment Densities

Area South Coast Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria Total County Existing Employment 121,788 10,711 21,920 46,077 200,496 Existing Acres of Developed Land 2,241 578 556 4,818 8,193 Employees Per Acre 54.0 18.0 39.0 9.6 24.5 Forecast Employment 168,750 14,449 30,300 65,300 278,800 Employees Per Acre 64.0 18.0 47.0 9.6 25.5 Forecast Acres of Developed Land 2,630 800 640 6,800 10,870
Existing employment represents year 2000 wage and salary employment and self employed (estimated for year 2000) combined. Existing developed land is from the Tax Assessors Database from Planning and Development. Forecast employment represents year 2030 wage and salary employment and includes self-employed (same estimate as for year 2000). Forecast employees per acre include the 20 percent employee density increase for Lompoc and the South Coast as well as a 4 percent increase countywide.
79
Forecast 2000
Household Size Density An important indicator of population growth and change is household size. Household size is an input to the forecast model and is estimated for each five year forecast period by jurisdiction. This section will describe influences on this demographic indicator and how household size has changed over time and is forecast to change in the future. In addition, a worker per household forecast will be presented since this is also an input to the forecast model that influences the number and availability of workers. Household size is the number of persons living in a housing unit. Average household size; the mean number of people living in each housing unit, is calculated simply as the ratio of total persons living in households to the total number of occupied housing units. The numerator leaves out the small percentage of persons who are not part of the household population (group quarters), and the denominator of the ratio leaves out the small percentage of housing units that are vacant. The most common source of household size data is from the census of population. The census counts are used as benchmarks in making future estimates. Table 4-9 Census 2000 Household Size Estimates Census 2000 Household Size 2.67 2.82 4.00 2.88 2.47 3.40 2.37 2.96 2.44 2.72 2.41 2.43 2.16 2.91 2.74 2.49 2.99 3.33 2.78 2.80 2.87 2.59 80 Forecast 2000
Jurisdiction Buellton Carpinteria Guadalupe Lompoc Santa Barbara Santa Maria Solvang Isla Vista Mission Canyon Goleta (Census Place) Montecito Toro Canyon Summerland Los Alamos Orcutt Vandenberg Village Mission Hills Vandenberg AFB Santa Ynez Countywide Statewide Nationwide
Small changes in household size can have a significant impact on total population. This population increase and consequent impact on schools, water, and traffic can occur without any increase in the number of housing units. For example, if the household size for a jurisdiction with 35,000 households were to increase slightly from 2.47 to 2.48 the population would increase by 350 persons. This assumes the number of households is kept constant at 35,000 and the household size is applied to all occupied housing units. A larger increase in household size brings proportionately greater increases in population. An increase from 2.47 to 2.71 persons per household results in 8,400 new persons in the same number of households. Countywide, over the 30 year 20002030-time period, there is forecast to be a population increase of 26,800 based on a household size increase from 2.8 in 2000 to 3.0 in 2030. Table 4-10 Influence of Household Size on Population Growth
2000 Households 73,281 5,116 35,033 1,896 31,236 18,809 13,037 5,772 35,317 22,136 1,415 11,657 110 2000 HHS 2.60 2.82 2.47 2.59 2.72 2.87 2.88 2.85 3.24 3.40 4.00 2.84 3.57 2030 HHS 2.81 2.94 2.71 2.76 2.90 2.97 3.00 2.85 3.50 3.63 4.12 3.02 3.69 2000 2030 HHS Growth Household Household From Population Population HHS 190,575 205,742 15,167 14,427 15,041 614 86,391 94,939 8,548 4,911 5,234 322 84,962 90,584 5,622 53,998 37,547 16,450 114,418 75,261 5,659 33,107 391 55,803 39,111 16,450 123,523 80,242 5,829 35,205 404 21,422 5,087 12,584 3,942 1,369 412,324 5 1,805 1,564 0 9,105 4,981 170 2,098 13 -21 64 0 87 14 29,707 6
Jurisdiction South Coast Market Area City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp.CCD - Uninc. SB CCD - Uninc. Lompoc Market Area City of Lompoc Lompoc CCD - Uninc. Santa Maria Market Area City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM CCD - Uninc. Guad. CCD - Uninc.
8,259 2.60 2.59 21,443 Santa Ynez Market Area City of Solvang 2,119 2.37 2.40 5,023 SY CCD - Uninc. 4,696 2.68 2.68 12,584 City of Buellton 1,444 2.67 2.73 3,855 Cuyama Market Area 477 2.84 2.87 1,355 136,143 2.81 3.03 382,617 County Total Column number 1 2 3 4 Notes: Column 1 equals the number of year 2000 households. Column 2 equals the year 2000 household sizes. Column 3 equals the 2030 household sizes. Column 4 equals the year 2000 household population with 2000 household size. Column 5 equals the year 2000 households times the year 2030 household size. Column 6 equals the growth in population from the household size increase 2000-2030
81
Forecast 2000
Household Size Trends Household size embodies the combined effects of many different influences. Nationally, declining mortality and the aging of the baby boomers have led to more elderly households which typically have a smaller number of persons in the household. Recent local observations however show that live in care givers for the elderly is becoming more common which would have the tendency to increase household size. Declining fertility has led to fewer large families. Marriage patterns have produced many more adults who are unmarried or divorced and disposed to living by themselves or with a roommate. More locally in Santa Barbara County, high housing costs and low vacancy rates have required that more wage earners live in the unit to afford it or that older offspring remain at home before moving out on their own. In the South Coast, with its relatively high proportion of college students, the household size increase is significant for those students trying to afford the high cost of rental housing. Household size also varies by ethnicity as seen in characteristically large Hispanic families and households. Housing types, such as detached single-family units or mobile homes can also influence household size. Following state and national trends, household size in Santa Barbara County declined from 3.0 in 1970 to 2.62 in 1980 (Figure 4-10). However, from 1980 -1990 this trend was reversed for both the State of California and County of Santa Barbara. Nationally, household size is on a decline due in part to the larger proportion of elderly persons with their characteristically smaller household sizes. A past SBCAG Profile of Older Adults in Santa Barbara County provides additional information about this age group. In contrast, other influences are at work in California, such as the increasing numbers of Hispanic households with characteristically larger household sizes and the cost of housing which has a tendency to increase the number of persons paying the housing costs. In California household size increased from to 2.68 in 1980 to 2.87 in 2000 and, in Santa Barbara County, household size increased from 2.6 in 1980 to 2.72 in 1990 and 2.8 in 2000. Figure 4-10 Historic 1960-1990 and Forecast 1990-2015 Household Sizes
82
Forecast 2000
Forecasting Change in Household Size This section will describe some of the influences on future change in household size for Santa Barbara County jurisdictions. In an effort to quantify these influences, each area is ranked and compared for its relative potential for increasing or decreasing household size. A significant influence on household size is the availability of affordable housing. Household size can increase as population growth exceeds the supply of housing. A spiral effect can increase household sizes as more workers or students crowd into single housing units to take advantage of scarce vacant living spaces. This is particularly evident in many areas of the South Coast such as Isla Vista (adjacent to UCSB) where available affordable housing is scarce. The effects of housing costs can be seen in the steady increase in the number of overcrowded housing units. The Census Bureau as an indicator of overcrowded conditions considers more than one person per room. The measurement is obtained by dividing the number of persons in each occupied housing unit by the number of rooms in each unit. Rooms by definition can include living rooms, dining rooms, kitchens, and bedrooms. Countywide, overcrowded units have increased. The units that have over one person per room increased from 7 percent in 1970 to 9.3 percent in 1990. Low housing vacancy rates indicate that this trend will continue due to the lack of new units coming into the market. There is some variation in overcrowded units throughout the county with the City of Guadalupe dramatically higher than all other areas with 40 percent of units being overcrowded. The City of Santa Maria at 18 percent of their units overcrowded is above the countywide average of 9.3 percent. These two cities also have large Hispanic populations with characteristically large families. In contrast a large percentage of older couples without families in the Cities of Solvang and Buellton have the lowest percent of overcrowded units. In the South Coast, with its recent dramatic rise in rental costs and housing values the number of overcrowded units will likely increase. Figure 4-11 Overcrowded Units For Santa Barbara County Jurisdictions in 1990
83
Forecast 2000
Ethnicity is another important factor in forecasting household sizes. For example, the Hispanic Origin population has characteristically higher birth rates that often result in larger families and higher household sizes. Figure 4-12 shows household size of the Hispanic, compared to the total population by jurisdiction. For each jurisdiction, the Hispanic Origin population has a higher household size. This will likely continue or remain as the Hispanic population continues to grow in the county. Figure 4-12 Household Size, for Hispanic And Total Population in 1990
5 Persons Per Household 4 3 2 1 0
Countywide
Carpinteria
Lompoc
Santa Barbara Santa Maria
Jurisdiction
1990 Hispanic 1990 Total Population
84
Forecast 2000
The Cities of Santa Maria and Guadalupe have a particularly high proportion of the Hispanic population (Table 4-11). The case for increasing household sizes in these areas is therefore stronger. Table 4-11 Percent Spanish Origin in Cities, Places 1990, 2000
Area Buellton-City Carpinteria-City Guadalupe-City Lompoc-City Santa Barbara-City Santa Maria-City Solvang-City Incorporated Total Vandenberg AFB Vandenberg Village Isla Vista Mission Hills Santa Ynez Orcutt Goleta Toro Canyon Los Alamos 1990 2000 % Hispanic % Hispanic 19 25 37 43 83 84 27 37 32 35 46 59 16 19 36 44 9 11 6 9 15 20 15 20 7 9 N/A 14 N/A 22 N/A 16 N/A 34
Figure 4-13 shows the dramatic increase, between 1982 and 1993, in the proportion of countywide births by Hispanic Origin mothers. Figure 4-13 Santa Barbara County Births of Hispanic Origin, 1982-1996
85
Forecast 2000
The type of housing also influences household sizes. Figure 4-14 shows the proportion of detached, attached, mobile home, and other types of housing by jurisdiction. Single-family detached housing lends itself to higher household sizes often occupied by families or numerous unrelated individuals. Attached housing such as duplexes, condos and apartments lend themselves to lower household sizes because they are usually smaller units and cater to single people or young couples without children. In areas with a large proportion of detached housing one would expect to find higher household sizes than those areas with large proportions of apartments and condos. The horizontal bar represents the proportion or percentage of the total (number on the right y-axis) units falling into each category. The Cities of Carpinteria and Santa Barbara have the smallest proportion of detached single-family housing, however, in contrast they have a higher proportion of attached housing such as condos and apartments. Note the City of Buelltons small proportion of attached housing compared to its high proportion of mobile homes. The City of Guadalupe has almost no Mobile Homes. Close to 80 percent of the unincorporated Santa Maria and Santa Ynez valley is devoted to detached single-family dwellings. Figure 4-14 Housing Type Composition, 1990 Census
Countywide Santa Barbara Carpinteria Santa Maria Lompoc Solvang Buellton Guadalupe Carp Uninc. CCD Lompoc Unic. CCD SB CCD Uninc CCD SM Uninc CCD SY Uninc CCD
138149 36526 5457 21144 13261 2076 1424 1378 2546 8862 31329 11477 4663
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Detached
Proportion of Housing Type Attached Mobile Home/Trailer
Other
86
Forecast 2000
The California State Department of Finance has produced estimates of housing units by type based on census and updated annual housing permit data provided by local jurisdictions. Note the highest percentage of detached housing is in Guadalupe and the lowest is in the Carpinteria. The percent of detached housing in the county has not changed since the 1990 Census when it was also 57%.
Table 4-12 Department of Finance Housing Unit Composition for 2000 Single Attached Units Detached 871 216 2,087 2,597 1,081 473 7,387 5,634 16,942 19,431 13,962 7,975 1,300 777 39,681 15,932 83,311 53,035 78,181 49,377 Mobile Homes 429 950 7 929 462 1,693 169 4,291 8,930 8,482 Percent Single Detached 57% 37% 69% 52% 45% 59% 57% 66% 60% 57%
Jurisdiction Buellton Carpinteria Guadalupe Lompoc Santa Barbara Santa Maria Solvang Unincorporated Total County Total County in 1990
Total 1,516 5,634 1,561 13,950 36,835 23,630 2,246 59,904 145,276 136,040
87
Forecast 2000
Household size also varies by family type. Figures 4-15 and 4-16 show the composition of family and nonfamily households in Santa Barbara County jurisdictions. The comparison in Figure 4-15 includes family householders (the head of a household with two or more related members), spouses (married to and living with spouse), other relatives, and non-relatives (unrelated persons living in the same housing unit). The horizontal bar represents the proportion or percentage of the total persons in each category. Variations in the jurisdictions can be seen with Solvang, showing a relatively large proportion of married householders with fewer children and Guadalupe that shows more households with children and relatives. As a result, the City of Solvang has a tendency for a lower household size than the City of Guadalupe. Note the relatively low percentage of spouses combined with the large percentage of children in Guadalupe. It seems that there is a large proportion of single mothers in the city. The City of Santa Barbara has a larger proportion of non-relatives living in family households that is typical of an area where an extra room may be rented to a boarder. Those areas with larger proportions of non-relatives, other relatives, and children have a tendency for higher household sizes. The family household components for the unincorporated areas are similarly proportioned. Figure 4-15 Components of Family Households, In Santa Barbara County, 1990
County Guadalupe Lompoc SB Buellton Solv SM Carp Carp Uninc CCD Lomp. Uninc CCD SB Uninc. CCD SM Uninc. CCD SY Uninc. CCD 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
286497 5126 30579 59835 3003 3712 53882 11268 3766 19291 57578 29449 10049 100%
Householder
Components of Households Spouse Other Relative Children
Nonrelatives
88
Forecast 2000
Figure 4-16 shows a similar comparison but examines non-family households. These represent unrelated individuals living together. Note the large proportion of those living alone. These single occupants can be characterized as elderly in areas where there is a high proportion of retirement or assisted living facilities, or single working young professionals in areas where there are employment opportunities. In the unincorporated Lompoc valley there is a large proportion of single occupant households. This is due in part to the location of Vandenberg AFB in the area and the need for housing young single airman. The unincorporated Santa Barbara\Goleta area has a large proportion of non-relatives living in the non-family households due in part to the large numbers of UCSB students sharing housing. Figure 4-16 Components of Non Family Households, In Santa Barbara County, 1990
County Guadalupe Lompoc SB Buellton Solv SM Carp Carp. Uninc. CCD Lomp. Uninc. CCD SB Uninc. CCD SM Uninc. CCD SY Uninc. CCD 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
67214 299 4546 23094 494 828 6654 2279 628 844 22006 2217 1128 100%
Householder Alone
Components of Households Householder Not Alone
Non Relatives
89
Forecast 2000
The profile of the household size indicators follows in Table 4-13. Each jurisdiction receives a score relative to the countywide average by adding up all the high indicator percentages and subtracting the low indicator percentages. This relative score provides one basis for forecasting future changes in household size. The higher the score relative to the countywide average the greater propensity for household size to increase over the forecast period. Other influences are historical trends and the recent Census 2000 household sizes. Table 4-13 Household Size Matrix
In South Coast communities, the escalating price of rental housing and slow housing growth will continue to be a factor increasing household size throughout the forecast period. In addition, South Coast cities have the most significant historical upward trend of household size. These increases will be dampened somewhat by the out migration of young families who cannot afford the escalating rents and housing costs. Lompoc City has relatively less expensive housing that would encourage those priced out of the South Coast market to move into the area. 90
Forecast 2000
The unincorporated Lompoc valley is subject to wide variations in population due to program changes at Vandenberg AFB for example from 1990-2000 the population of Vandenberg dropped. Historically, there is also a declining trend in household size in this area. Santa Maria City has a high percentage of Hispanic households that have higher household sizes, and a large proportion of married family households. In addition, there is a historically upward trend in household size. As a result Santa Maria City has a relatively larger increase in household size over the forecast period, as does the unincorporated area due to more families moving to the area for less costly housing. The incorporated Santa Ynez valley attracts a large proportion of older adults with their characteristically smaller household sizes and as a result the increase in household size is moderate. Other trends pointed out by technical staff and comments from public workshops, include a recent observation of declining school enrollment that may indicate that families are leaving the south coast in search of more affordable housing. Representatives from the City of Carpinteria and the Santa Barbara School District cited recent reductions in Elementary School enrollment as an indication of families moving out of the south coast due to housing costs (see page 14, Table 2-2). Others indicated an increase in the number of families in Santa Maria. As a result staff lowered the rate of household size increase in Carpinteria and raised it in Santa Maria. The rate of increase in Santa Barbara was retained, as the household size was relatively low already. Table 4-14 Household Size Forecast
Subregion
1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

2.40 2.71 2.21 2.25 2.68 2.75 2.66 2.90 2.97 2.80 3.80 3.16 3.94 2.62 2.22 2.75 2.56 2.74 2.42 2.58 2.69 2.88 2.81 3.00 3.01 3.04 3.99 2.83 3.55 2.63 2.37 2.76 2.63 2.84 2.58 2.83 2.72 2.57 2.73 2.43 2.57 2.69 2.81 2.80 2.84 3.03 3.12 3.87 2.75 3.48 2.66 2.38 2.79 2.65 2.85 2.73 2.60 2.82 2.47 2.59 2.72 2.87 2.88 2.85 3.24 3.40 4.00 2.84 3.57 2.60 2.37 2.68 2.67 2.84 2.80 2.64 2.84 2.51 2.62 2.75 2.89 2.90 2.85 3.28 3.44 4.02 2.87 3.59 2.60 2.37 2.68 2.68 2.85 2.84 2.68 2.86 2.55 2.64 2.78 2.90 2.92 2.85 3.32 3.48 4.04 2.90 3.61 2.60 2.38 2.68 2.69 2.85 2.88 2.71 2.88 2.59 2.67 2.81 2.92 2.94 2.85 3.37 3.52 4.06 2.93 3.63 2.60 2.39 2.68 2.70 2.86 2.91
2020
2.74 2.90 2.63 2.70 2.84 2.93 2.96 2.85 3.41 3.56 4.08 2.96 3.65 2.60 2.39 2.68 2.71 2.86 2.95
2025 2030 2000-2030

2.78 2.92 2.67 2.73 2.87 2.95 2.98 2.85 3.46 3.60 4.10 2.99 3.67 2.60 2.40 2.68 2.72 2.87 2.99 2.81 2.94 2.71 2.76 2.90 2.97 3.00 2.85 3.50 3.63 4.12 3.02 3.69 2.59 2.40 2.68 2.73 2.87 3.03 0.21 0.12 0.24 0.17 0.18 0.10 0.12 0.00 0.26 0.23 0.12 0.18 0.12 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.22
South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp Valley Uninc. SB Valley- Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe S.M. Valley Uninc. Guad. Valley Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang S.Y. Valley Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County
91
Forecast 2000
Household size links the forecast population with the housing supply through a household forecast. This is done in the forecast model. The forecast of households is estimated by dividing projected household population by forecast household sizes. For forecasting purposes, new households are equated with new housing unit demand. One exception to this rule is for the Lompoc unincorporated area where Vandenberg Air Force Base showed a significant drop in population (37%) over the 1990 to 2000 census period. This loss of population has in turn increased the vacancy to over 14 percent. These vacant units are anticipated to be occupied once again creating new households that are not the result of new housing units as in the other areas. Vacant units or vacancy rates are not considered in the household forecast. Table 4-15 Household Forecast
Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp - Uninc. SB- Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM Uninc. Guad.- Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY- Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total
2000
73,665 4,989 35,605 2,021 31,050 18,887 13,059 5,828 35,353 22,146 1,414 11,676 117 8,255 2,185 4,637 1,433 462 136,622
2005
75,624 5,039 35,914 1,998 32,673 20,789 13,383 7,406 40,191 24,860 1,456 13,681 194 9,600 2,424 5,154 2,022 459 146,663
2010
77,529 5,089 36,223 2,107 34,110 21,728 13,729 7,999 44,087 27,056 1,490 15,337 203 10,233 2,565 5,524 2,144 476 154,053
2015
79,420 5,139 36,532 2,202 35,547 22,483 14,075 8,408 48,063 29,289 1,524 17,037 213 10,271 2,569 5,552 2,150 486 160,724
2020
80,969 5,189 36,840 2,304 36,636 22,829 14,421 8,408 50,102 30,280 1,558 18,044 219 10,241 2,569 5,531 2,140 500 164,641
2025
81,429 5,239 37,148 2,406 36,636 23,175 14,767 8,408 50,291 30,424 1,592 18,046 229 10,276 2,569 5,551 2,155 523 165,694
2030
81,890 5,289 37,457 2,508 36,636 23,521 15,113 8,408 50,400 30,424 1,626 18,110 240 10,307 2,569 5,572 2,165 552 166,671
20002030
8,164 300 1,852 612 5,400 4,690 2,054 2,636 15,073 8,278 212 6,453 130 2,048 450 877 721 75 30,051
92
Forecast 2000
Workers Per Household A worker per household is a measurement of the number of persons working in each housing unit. It is also referred to as the labor force participation rate. Historical data from the 70, 80 and 90 census indicate that workers per household have increased countywide. At the time of the RGF adoption the 2000 Census worker per household and employment status data was not available so this information is subject to change when the new data is released. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics much of this increase is attributed to the greater participation of women in the labor force. Countywide census data indicate that participation of women (16 years of age and older) increased from 38 percent in 1970 to 48 percent in 1980 to 58 percent in 1990. Another consideration is the larger proportion of Hispanic male workers in the county with their characteristically higher labor participation rates than other segments of the population. Other labor force trends anticipated by the Bureau include a rising median age due to the aging of the baby boomers, some working longer than in previous decades, and increasing diversity in the labor force with more women and minorities. Comments at the public workshop reinforced the potential for the elderly to remain in the workforce for a longer period of time. Many persons at 62 or 65 years of age remain healthy and desire to continue working past the typical retirement age. For the South Coast a higher density of workers per household is anticipated due to the high cost and lack of availability of housing. Table 4-16 shows workers per household for each jurisdiction. The workers per household estimates do not include self-employed workers to be consistent with the wage and salary only employment forecast. Table 4-16 Workers Per Household, 2000-2030
Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Valley - Uninc. SB Valley - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Valley - Uninc. Guad. Valley Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang Santa Ynez V - Uninc. City of Buellton 2000
1.28 1.32 1.24 1.13 1.35 1.12 1.17 1.00 1.29 1.34 1.39 1.17 1.35 1.13 0.98 1.20 1.28
2005
1.34 1.34 1.26 1.16 1.42 1.15 1.18 1.08 1.31 1.37 1.38 1.17 1.35 1.16 1.00 1.24 1.28
2010
1.35 1.36 1.28 1.20 1.43 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.33 1.40 1.36 1.17 1.35 1.17 1.02 1.25 1.29
2015
1.38 1.38 1.31 1.23 1.45 1.19 1.18 1.20 1.35 1.43 1.36 1.17 1.35 1.19 1.05 1.27 1.29
2020
1.41 1.40 1.35 1.25 1.48 1.20 1.18 1.24 1.36 1.44 1.36 1.18 1.35 1.21 1.06 1.30 1.30
2025
1.44 1.42 1.40 1.26 1.50 1.22 1.20 1.28 1.38 1.46 1.36 1.19 1.35 1.22 1.08 1.31 1.30
2030
1.47 1.44 1.44 1.27 1.52 1.23 1.21 1.28 1.39 1.46 1.36 1.19 1.35 1.22 1.10 1.31 1.31
20002030
0.19 0.12 0.20 0.14 0.17 0.11 0.04 0.28 0.10 0.12 -0.03 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.12 0.11 0.03
93
Forecast 2000
Cuyama Subregion County
0.90 1.26
0.88 1.29
0.88 1.31
0.86 1.33
0.86 1.35
0.86 1.38
0.86 1.39
-0.04 0.19
The potential for residential development was identified and described earlier in the report in Chapter 4. Estimating the potential for new residential development enables a calculation of total workers using the workers per household ratio. New workers arise from increases in workers per household in existing housing as well as from new housing. The following two tables show the increase in workers over the 30 year forecast period. Table 4-17 Increase in Workers, 2000-2030
Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Valley - Uninc. SB Valley - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Valley - Uninc. Guad. Valley - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY. Valley - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total 2000
94,817 6,590 44,082 2,099 42,046 21,032 15,301 5,731 45,415 29,662 1,967 13,639 148 9,545 2,139 5,574 1,832 429 171,239
2005
100,567 6,962 44,891 2,318 46,396 23,792 15,792 8,000 52,404 34,091 2,010 16,041 262 11,338 2,336 6,402 2,600 404 188,506
2010
104,113 7,175 45,632 2,529 48,777 25,641 16,200 9,441 58,177 37,903 2,027 17,973 274 12,236 2,552 6,912 2,772 419 200,587
2015
108,749 7,391 47,106 2,709 51,543 26,699 16,609 10,090 64,119 41,865 2,073 19,894 287 12,575 2,761 7,045 2,770 418 212,560
2020
113,672 7,610 48,961 2,880 54,221 27,443 17,017 10,426 67,347 43,627 2,119 21,305 296 12,763 2,787 7,193 2,783 430 221,655
2025
117,024 7,832 51,206 3,032 54,954 28,483 17,720 10,763 68,394 44,419 2,166 21,500 310 12,906 2,832 7,272 2,802 450 227,257
2030
120,043 8,058 53,113 3,185 55,687 29,049 18,287 10,763 68,582 44,419 2,212 21,626 324 13,025 2,889 7,300 2,836 475 231,174
94
Forecast 2000
Table 4-18 Increase in Workers, Five-Year Periods 2000-2030

Subregion South Coast Subregion City of Carpinteria City of Santa Barbara Carp. Valley - Uninc. SB Valley - Uninc. Lompoc Subregion City of Lompoc Lompoc Valley Uninc. Santa Maria Subregion City of Santa Maria City of Guadalupe SM. Valley - Uninc. Guad. Valley - Uninc. Santa Ynez Subregion City of Solvang SY. Valley - Uninc. City of Buellton Cuyama Subregion County Total 20002005
5,750 372 810 219 4,350 2,760 491 2,269 6,989 4,429 43 2,402 114 1,793 198 828 767 (25) 17,267
20052010
3,546 213 741 211 2,382 1,849 408 1,440 5,773 3,812 17 1,932 12 898 216 510 172 15 12,081
20102015
4,635 216 1,474 180 2,766 1,057 408 649 5,942 3,962 46 1,921 12 340 208 133 (2) (1) 11,973
20152020
4,924 219 1,855 172 2,678 745 408 336 3,228 1,761 46 1,411 9 187 26 148 13 12 9,095
20202025
3,352 222 2,245 152 733 1,040 704 336 1,047 792 46 195 14 144 45 80 19 20 5,603
20252030
3,019 226 1,907 154 733 566 566 188 46 127 15 119 57 28 34 25 3,917
2000-2030
25,226 1,468 9,031 1,086 13,641 8,017 2,986 5,031 23,166 14,757 245 7,987 177 3,480 750 1,726 1,004 45 59,935
95
Forecast 2000
Chapter 5 Jobs/Housing Relationship

Introduction An issue that has emerged from the update of local housing and land use plans within Santa Barbara County is the current and future relationship of jobs and housing. During the 1980s for example, commercial growth in the South Coast outpaced residential development activity that was occurring largely away from commercial centers. This relationship has become increasingly important with longer commute times and distances among those who live further from their place of work which influences future transportation demand as it relates to the proximity of jobs and housing. Housing growth has not kept pace with the demand, causing already high housing prices to soar in recent years both locally and on a statewide basis. The median cost of a home on the South Coast is now approaching $500,000, beyond the reach of many working in the service sector and even many higher income professionals. As the jobs/housing imbalance has intensified in recent years, workers have increasingly crowded into the limited available housing on the South Coast, or sought less- expensive housing in northern Santa Barbara and Ventura County. Recent new housing developments in Buellton and Santa Maria are housing a large proportion of workers from the south coast. The long commutes made by these workers (between 30 and 75 minutes one way) may begin to significantly impact the regions highway system. Intercity commuter routes in Santa Barbara County include State Routes 1,101,154, and 246. Heavy traffic volumes characterize a typical commute route in the 7-9 a.m. and the 4-6 p.m. periods. A comparative look at traffic growth between 1994 and 1999 on the intercity commute routes in the SBCAG 1999 Travel Trends Report show significant increases in traffic during the peak commuter hours. This data suggests a continued increase in long distance commuting and a jobs/housing imbalance. Benefits from an improved jobs/housing relationship include shortened commute distances and an increase in non-motorized trips such as walking and biking resulting in improved air quality and traffic flow. The relationship between jobs and housing is an ongoing issue as residential and nonresidential development continues into the future. Through its forecast of housing and employment and assessment of vacant land the RGF 2000 provides additional information that can be used to evaluate future changes in the jobs/housing relationship. This chapter attempts to evaluate new RGF 2000 information as it relates to the jobs/housing issue. The RGF forecasts new jobs for subregions that combine both cities and unincorporated areas. This jobs/housing analysis therefore is subregional in nature. Jobs housing balance for individual jurisdictions can show a different relationship. The information reviewed combines jobs from the employment forecast, workers from increases in workers per household, and housing from the housing unit forecast.
96
Existing Jobs Housing Relationship Figure 5-1 shows inter-county workers from 1990 Census journey to work data. The 2000 data was not available at the time of this reports publication. These are workers who live in but work outside Santa Barbara County or workers who live outside but work in Santa Barbara County. The actual numbers are likely to be significantly higher for Santa Barbara County workers living outside the county because of higher housing costs in the South Coast area. In the figure positive numbers are workers commuting into Santa Barbara County and the negative numbers are workers commuting to areas outside the county. With the forecast of new housing production lagging employment in the South Coast the number of commuters to Ventura will likely increase proportionately. The figure indicates roughly 5,600 persons commuted from Ventura County to Santa Barbara County in 1990 and over 2,400 commuted in the opposite direction. Evidence suggests that the number of commuters is on the increase. Average daily traffic at the Ventura County line increased from 54,000 vehicles in 1988 to 60,000 vehicles in 1998 while the volume at Gaviota (capturing north SB County commuters) increased from 23,600 vehicles to 30,000, a 27% increase. An examination of 24-hour traffic counts indicates the traffic increase is concentrated in the morning and evening commute hours. Figure 5-1 Inter-County Workers, 1990 Census
Los Angeles County

+1,267 -1,775 +5,594 -2,433
Ventura County
-2,444 +2,294
-3,584
+5,478
Other
San Luis Obispo County
97
Figure 5-2 shows the total number of workers, jobs and housing by subregion in the year 2000. Note the relative balance for most areas with the exception of the South Coast where jobs outnumber workers. It is important to note that when jobs and housing are reviewed on a local basis there may be a balance such as is the case with the City of Carpinteria. Figure 5-2 Workers, Jobs and Housing in 2000, by Subregion
Santa Ynez
Workers
Jobs
Housing
Lompoc
South Coast
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
However, this graphic should not lead one to the conclusion that a subregion like Lompoc has a jobs-housing balance. Many Lompoc residents commute to jobs on the South Coast. In addition, many Santa Maria Valley residents commute to jobs at VAFB, which are in the Lompoc region, and the South Coast. The intent in examining this topic is to assess the relationship between employment and housing on a countywide basis and to foster the development of subregional economies that provide jobs and housing for local residents.
98
Future Jobs Housing Relationship Figure 5-3 shows the total number of workers, jobs and housing in 2030, (the end of the forecast period) by subregion. Note the relative balance for most areas with the exception of the South Coast where jobs continue to outnumber workers and housing continues to lag. Vacancy rates and unemployment rates are assumed to be constant and the job estimates are an annual average. Figure 5-3 Workers, Jobs and Housing in 2030, By Subregion
Santa Ynez
Workers
Jobs
Housing
Lompoc
South Coast
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
99
Figure 5-4 shows the change in workers and jobs over the 30 year 2000-2030 period by subregion. The job increases are higher in all cases with the south coast showing almost twice as much job growth as worker growth. Workers coming from other areas such as Ventura County and north Santa Barbara County to take the available jobs that resident workers cannot fill rectify the imbalance. Housing growth lags in all subregions. Figure 5-4 Workers, Jobs and Housing Growth 2000-2030, By Subregion
Santa Ynez
Workers
Jobs
Housing
Lompoc
South Coast
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
100
Figure 5-5 combines existing and future potential workers associated with growth in housing units and workers per household densities and existing and future jobs associated with availability of commercial, industrial and retail land. The residential and non-residential vacant land use data is available for individual jurisdictions in Tables 4-2 and 4-3. To estimate the maximum workers, a worker per household estimate for the year 2030 was applied to the residential unit buildout estimates. In addition, there is an increase of workers in existing housing due to increases in workers per household density over the forecast period. These two factors are added to provide a worker estimate based on land use buildout. Future job growth potential uses an average employee density factor. The density factor can vary depending on land costs, location and availability and the type of employment. For purposes of a very general comparison a density of 250 square feet per employee is used. This is a typical density for office and high technology employment. Manufacturing space requirements are higher. For example, the City of Lompoc has the potential for 4,270,000 square feet of additional developable square feet. At 250 square feet per employee approximately 17,000 new jobs can be accommodated. Figure 5-5 Workers, Jobs and Housing, Existing, 2000-2030 and Buildout Combined, By Subregion
Santa Ynez
Lompoc
South Coast
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Workers
Jobs
Housing
101
Figure 5-6 shows the relationship between employment, workers, and housing growth over the forecast period on a countywide basis. Employment is compared with workers and housing over the 2000-2030 forecast period on a countywide basis. Note the relatively slow growth rate in households and more rapid increase in workers and jobs. Workers are growing faster than households due to new workers associated with new housing and a greater worker density in existing households. The forecast estimates future workers per households density and allows for future increases in workers within the existing housing stock. Figure 5-6 Workers, Jobs and Housing, Countywide, 2000-2030
Workers 2030 2025 2020 Year 2015 2010 2005 2000 0 50,000
Jobs
Housing
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
102
Figure 5-6 examines the relationship between future potential workers associated with growth in housing units and workers per household densities and future jobs associated with availability of commercial, industrial and retail land. The residential and non-residential vacant land use data is available for individual jurisdictions in Table 4-2. These areas can be assessed for future job growth potential using an average employee density factor. The density factor can vary depending on land costs, location and availability and the type of employment. For purposes of a very general comparison a density of 250 square feet per employee is used. This is a typical density for office and high technology employment. Manufacturing space requirements are higher. For example, the City of Lompoc has the potential for 4,270,000 square feet of additional developable square feet. At 250 square feet per employee approximately 17,000 new jobs can be accommodated. To estimate the maximum workers, a worker per household estimate for the year 2030 was applied to the residential unit buildout estimates. In addition, there is an increase of workers in existing housing due to increases in workers per household density over the forecast period. These two factors are added to provide a worker estimate based on land use buildout. Figure 5-6 Job and Worker Comparison of Buildout Data
S.M. Uninc. Guad. S.M. Lomp Uninc. Lompoc S.Y. Uninc. Buellton Solv. S.C. Uninc. Carp. S.B. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Jobs Resident Workers
Number of Jobs or Workers
103
Chapter 6 Forecast Comparisons and Growth Policy

Introduction Regional growth forecasts were first produced by SBCAG in 1985 and again in 1989 and 1994. These forecasts are updated periodically to reflect new land use and demographic data as it becomes available. It is important to evaluate how each successive forecast compares with prior forecasts, with census data, and other forecasts and projections such as those produced by the California State Department of Finance (DOF) and a population trend projection recently released by the Santa Barbara County Planning and Development Department. A report from the Public Policy Institute of California reviewed population projections for the state by various organizations. The report concluded that although projections of future population and rates of population growth vary widely, growth rates will be lower than in the past, natural increase will have more effect than migration and California will still have higher growth rates than the rest of the country. What should be the regional growth policy? Is SBCAG the appropriate forum to address growth and land use issues since these issues are the traditional responsibility of local agencies? A set of modest growth policies is presented to facilitate the discussion of this complex topic. State Population Projections The Department of Finance population projections from 2000-2040 show some dramatic growth. Population projections are prepared by the DOF under mandate of Government Code, Sections 13073 and 13073.5. In addition, the State Administrative Manual sets the general policy of using the same population projections and demographic data provided by the States Demographic Research Unit for state planning. Therefore, it is important to evaluate these projections in the context of SBCAGs own RGF for consistency of assumptions and results. The DOF has released interim population projections in July of 2001 that were adjusted for a census undercount. Population estimates and projections by the Department Of Finance and the RGF are shown for comparison purposes in Figure and Table 6-1. The results of this comparison indicate: The DOF 2030 population is 658,600 compared to the RGF at 520,600. From 2000-2030 the DOF projection shows an increase of 246,000 persons or 60 percent, while the RGF 2000 forecast increases by 121,000 persons, or 30 percent. The DOF projection to 2040 shows an increase of 273,620 persons to a county total of 779,247, almost doubling the current 2000 countywide population of 399,000.
One major reason for the difference in growth rates between the RGF and the DOF is that the RGF includes an assessment of land use constraints. In the RGF, land use plans from county jurisdictions are evaluated for the total available land and any growth limiting policies whereas the DOF projection does not include this constraint. The RGF 2000 evaluation of available residentially zoned land shows that there is enough capacity in existing land use plans to accommodate 33,000 new housing units. The DOF population forecast exceeds this by 50,000.
104
Forecast 2000
Figure 6-1 RGF and Department of Finance 2040 Population

900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 Population 500,000 RGF 2000 400,000 300,000 RGF 85 200,000 100,000 Population 0 Rgf 94 RGF 89 RGF 85 RGF 2000 Historical RGF 89 RGF 94 Department of Finance Projection
19 40 19 47 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40
Table 6-1 Population Growth Department of Finance and RGF 2000 Comparison Population Total Increase 2030 2000-2030 658,000 246,000 521,000 121,000
DOF RGF
2000 2010 406,000 467,000 399,000 462,000
2015 505,000 487,000
2020 552,000 504,000
105
Forecast 2000
The DOF aggressive population projection is not limited to Santa Barbara County. The adjacent counties of Ventura and San Luis Obispo are also subject to large percent increases over the 2000-2040 projection period as Table 6-2 shows. Table 6-2 Department of Finance Numerical\Percent Population Change For Tri-Counties and State of California
Year Santa Barbara Ventura San Luis Obispo California
Census 2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2000-2040
399,347 *56\13.5 84\18.0 106\18.9 121\18.3 367\89.0
753,197 *101\13.0 127\15.0 146\14.8 151\13.0 525\69.0
246,681 *70\27.0 68\20.0 69\18.0 74\16.0 281\110.0
33,871,648 5,300\14.0 5,500\13.7 6,300\14.0 6,900\13.0 24,000\69.0
*Numerical increase is in thousands.
DOF Methodology Overview The DOF uses an age cohort method similar in structure to SBCAGs RGF 2000 to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. The base census population was projected using the following assumptions: The projections assume that each county's race/ethnic-specific and age-specific fertility rates merge toward a statewide projection of fertility rates by age and race/ethnic group. Statewide survival rates by gender and race/ethnic group were used for all counties in California. Migration is quite volatile and the most difficult to forecast of all population change components. Since 1970, statewide annual migration has fluctuated from -82,000 to +421,000. For the future, the DOF relies on long-term averages of total net migration. The Department of Finance expects total net migration in the period between 2000 and 2003 to rebound from the historically low level of the mid 1990s and average more than 250,000 per year statewide. Following this pent-up demand, migration will slowly decline to about 180,000 after the year 2015. This represents a return to a long-term historical annual average, modified by county-specific migration assumptions made in consultation with local government planners and demographers whenever possible. For example, DOF staff consulted with SBCAG in 1997 when they were developing their base projections. SBCAG staff made reference to overall concerns about growth in the South Coast, the countys attractiveness to the retirement population because of the mild climate and proximity to Los Angeles.
106
Forecast 2000
City Population Forecasts by SBCAG A comparison of previous RGFs for individual Santa Barbara County jurisdictions shows that each successive forecast has been revised upward with the exception of several unincorporated areas: Lompoc, Santa Maria, Santa Ynez valleys and the City of Solvang. Figure 6-2 shows the RGF 85, 89, 94-year 2000 forecasts and Census 2000 estimates for individual county jurisdictions. The City of Buellton was recently incorporated so it is included in only one Forecast 94. Figure 6-2 Year 2000 Forecast Comparison, From RGF 1985, 1989, 1994 and 2000 Census
SY-Uninc City of Buellton City of Solvang Guad.-Uninc SM-Uninc City of Guadalupe City of Santa Maria Lompoc-Uninc City of Lompoc SB-Uninc Carp-Uninc City of Santa Barbara City of Carpinteria 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Population 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000
RFG 85
RGF 89
RGF 94
Census 2000
107
Forecast 2000
Table 6-3 also compares the previous forecasts with both Census 1990 and 2000 data. In general the earlier RGFs have been conservative in their forecasts. However, the RGF 94 used the DOF current population estimates as a benchmark in 1994. These were approximately 17,000 higher than Census 2000 and as a result the RGF was also higher by approximately the same amount. A negative number in the last two columns represents a lower forecast than the census. Table 6-3 Comparison of Previous Forecasts with 1990 and 2000 Census Data
RGF 85 1990 2000 80,000 81,200 12,000 12,200 53,900 60,800 4,700 5,100 34,000 35,300 7,400 161,500 353,500 7,600 169,800 372,000 Census 1990 2000 85,571 89,600 13,747 14,194 61,284 77,423 5,479 5,659 37,649 41,103 3,506 3,828 4,741 5,332 157,631 162,208 369,608 399,347 Difference 1990 2000 -5,571 -8,400 -1,747 -1,994 -7,384 -16,623 -779 -559 -3,649 -5,803 -3,506 -3,828 2,659 2,268 3,869 7,592 -16,108 -27,347
Jurisdiction Santa Barbara Carpinteria Santa Maria Guadalupe Lompoc Buellton Solvang Unincorporated Total
RGF 89 1990 2000 80,000 85,600 12,500 14,500 55,200 70,600 5,800 8,300 33,600 39,200 4,200 159,600 350,900 RGF 94 2000 93,241 15,689 75,152 6,936 44,208 3,966 5,437 171,584 416,213 5,600 180,134 403,934 Census 2000 89,600 14,194 77,423 5,659 41,103 3,828 5,332 162,208 399,347
Census 1990 2000 85,571 89,600 13,747 14,194 61,284 77,423 5,479 5,659 37,649 41,103 3,506 3,828 4,741 5,332 157,631 162,208 369,608 Difference 2000 3,641 1,495 -2,271 1,277 3,105 138 105 9,376 16,866 399,347
Difference 1990 2000 -5,571 -4,000 -1,247 306 -6,084 -6,823 321 2,641 -4,049 -1,903 -3,506 -3,828 -541 268 1,969 17,926 -18,708 4,587
108
Forecast 2000
Age distribution is an additional factor projected by the DOF. Figure 6-3 shows changes in the age distribution of the population as portrayed by 1990 Census data and the RGF 94 forecast. According to the 2000 census, approximately 12.7 percent of the population is over age 65. The RGF 2000 year 2030 forecast shows 19 percent of the population over age 65. The DOF year 2040 forecast shows 15 percent over age 65. Figure 6-3 Census 2000, RGF 2030 and Department of Finance 2040 Age Distributions
70000 60000 Population 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

0t o4 5t o 10 9 to 1 15 4 to 1 20 9 to 2 25 4 to 2 30 9 to 3 35 4 to 3 40 9 to 4 45 4 to 4 50 9 to 5 55 4 to 5 60 9 to 6 65 4 to 6 70 9 to 7 75 4 to 7 80 9 to 84 85 +
Age 2000 DOF 2030 RGF 2030
County Planning 2030 Projection Recently, the Santa Barbara County Planning and Development Department released a report titled Santa Barbara County 2030 Land and Population: The Potential Effects of Population Growth on Urban and Rural Lands, November 2000. Their trend projects historical 1990-2000 population growth to the year 2030 which is unconstrained by housing availability or economic conditions. Their 2030 countywide population of close to 576,000 persons is higher than the draft SBCAG 2030 forecast of 520,000 persons by 11% or about 56,000 persons. The SBCAG forecast is policy constrained while the County forecast is unconstrained and attempts to illustrate the impacts that growth might have on county land uses. Current City Population Estimates by DOF The DOF also provides annual estimates for all the individual cities and the entire unincorporated area as a whole. The city and unincorporated population estimates by the DOF are developed using the housing unit method which adds new construction minus demolitions to the census benchmark of housing units. Occupied housing units are estimated by adding change in residential electric customers. Household size estimates are based on the census and adjusted for shifts in the ratio of city resident children attending grades 1-8 changes in race/ethnic enrollment, and updated housing mix. The city/unincorporated level estimates are then controlled to independently derived county and state estimates. The DOF city level population estimates were higher than the Census 2000 results by approximately 15,000 countywide.
109
Forecast 2000
Household Size The following Table 6-4 compares RGF and DOF household size assumptions for the year 2000. The estimates are virtually the same on the countywide level with very little variation for individual cities with the exception of the Cities of Guadalupe and Carpinteria that have a .21 and .08 difference respectively. The Census 2000 data in general shows a lower household size for most areas with the exception of Santa Maria City. Table 6-4 RGF 94, Department of Finance and Census Household Size Comparison for 2000 Jurisdiction Carpinteria Santa Barbara Solvang Lompoc Santa Maria Guadalupe Buellton Unincorporated Incorporated Total County Household Size RGF 94 2.85 2.56 2.53 2.94 3.26 4.03 2.65 N/A N/A 2.86 Household Size DOF 2000 2.93 2.58 2.50 2.99 3.24 4.24 2.75 2.95 2.89 2.91 Household Size Census 2000 2.82 2.47 2.37 2.88 3.40 4.00 2.67 2.80 RGFDOF -.08 -.02 .03 -.05 .02 -.21 -.10 N/A N/A -.05
Births Deaths and Migration Births and death rates for the DOF and RGF remain fairly constant over the forecast period. These rates are based on Department of Health data. The total number of births ranges from 6,000-8,800 annually over the RGF and DOF 2030 forecast period to over 14,500 annually for the DOF in 2040. The higher number of births is due to the larger population base for the DOF in future years. Migration assumption in the DOF forecast is 4,000 more annually. The RGF assumption is less than 1,000 annually and is negative in the final forecast period. This is the primary reason for the discrepancy in the two forecasts. Migration varies considerably depending on economic fluctuations, availability of jobs and housing. These factors are not considered by the DOF but are in the RGF. Table 6-5 Annual Demographic Change RGF 2000 and Department of Finance Births Source RGF 2000 DOF 2040 7,000 6,000-14,500 Deaths 2,000-6,000 3,000-5,700 Net Migration 200 4,000
110
Forecast 2000
In summary, a comparison of previous and current RGFs, DOF and Census 2000 data show how difficult it is to consistently forecast population and demographic variables. The most recent Census 2000 provides new data to benchmark the forecast modeling efforts and more will be released as time goes on. New census as well as other relevant demographic data will be integrated in future RGF updates. The SBCAG, County and DOF look at the future in 2030 suggest greater attention needs to be given to the policy issues associated with long term growth. Among these issues are the JobsHousing balance, preservation of agricultural lands, urban and rural boundaries, housing density and need, and implications as cities approach buildout, among others. SBCAG looks forward to exploring these and other issues with the County, cities, special districts and the public. Regional Growth Policy Is there a regional growth policy addressing some of the challenges outlined in the growth forecast? Currently, there is not. What should SBCAGs role be in addressing a topic that is complex and controversial and an area that is historically the primary responsibility of local jurisdictions? While land use decisions are the primary responsibility of local cities and the county, many local decisions have broad regional consequences. While some of these regional impacts are positive, some can be detrimental to the health of the region. Should SBCAG take a more active role in promoting a dialogue on growth policy to identify and address the regionally significant issues? Perhaps yes. The 2030 regionwide forecast prepared by SBCAG identifies challenges facing the region. To address the challenges discussed throughout this report it is recommended that SBCAG and its member agencies consider and adopt regional growth policies. The recommended policies are identified below. 1. 2. 3. 4. The Regional Growth Forecast 2000-2030 should be endorsed and used by SBCAG and local jurisdictions as a baseline forecast, subject to review and revision as necessary. This baseline growth forecast will respect existing general plans to illustrate the implications of regional growth assumptions on population growth. SBCAG should take a more active role in facilitating discussion of regional growth forecasts, its issues, and if desired, policies. Local agencies with excess commercial and industrially zoned land should evaluate their General Plans to consider the correspondence of local job development potential with regional and local resource capacity, e.g., water and housing sites, to support job growth. The Cities of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria, UCSB, and the County should continue to address the regional implications of additional employment in the South Coast area on the regional housing market and cities in the South Coast and north county area. The region needs to examine the impacts of high housing costs and aging workforce on the ability to sustain employment growth and accommodate increasing long distance commutes.
5.
111
Forecast 2000
6.
Due to the long-term jobs-housing imbalance local and state jurisdictions in the South Coast should consider concurrent phasing of new commercial, retail, industrial development with residential development to be consistent with a balance of jobs and housing. The County should study the implications of winery and greenhouse agricultural development on the housing needs of cities and unincorporated areas. Local agencies are encouraged to use techniques to improve inter-jurisdictional coordination. Such techniques may include, but are not limited to joint city-county planning commission meetings, joint city-county specific plans, and regular referral of environmental reports and plans to adjoining agencies. The ability of local government to accommodate forecast growth has recently become more problematic due to income shifts between the state, local government, and special districts. These income shifts result in reduced incentives to approve development which does not generate sales tax. This may result in increased competition for those uses which generate sales taxes. The SBCAG Board should consider addressing these growing fiscal inequities on a regional basis and range from simply monitoring state legislative proposals to mediation of disputes between member agencies such as jobs housing balance issues.
7. 8.
9.
112
Forecast 2000
APPENDIX I FORECAST OVERVIEW FOR THE NEWLY INCORPORATED CITY OF GOLETA Geography City of Goleta Measure H, approved in November 2001, created the new City of Goleta covering the 93117 zip code area of the urban Goleta Valley. The major neighborhoods are Ellwood, El Encanto Heights, Old Town, and the North Fairview area. The new city also includes the Bacara Resort and the Veneco processing Plant. UCSB and Isla Vista were left out of the city boundaries. The newly incorporated area encompasses approximately 5,400 acres with a population of 29,000 and 10,000 housing units. A map of the new city and the existing Goleta Community Planning area follows. There are other geographic areas described as Goleta: Santa Barbara Unincorporated Census Division (Goleta Valley) The RGF provides estimates and forecasts for a variety of demographic variables for the Santa Barbara unincorporated subregion. This subregion has a population of 92,400 and includes: The entire area of the former Goleta Valley to Gaviota on the west, to the Santa Barbara City limits on the east and includes UCSB and Isla Vista as well as the unincorporated area of Mission Canyon and Montecito. Goleta Census Designated Place The area of Goleta was designated a 2000 Census Designated Place and as a result data has been tabulated for this area of 55,200 persons and 35,000 acres. The area corresponds to the Goleta Community Planning area as described in the Goleta Community Plan. The City of Goleta demographic data, for variables such as workers per household, birth and mortality rates, can be assumed to be similar to the Census Designated Place of Goleta. The population, household and household size forecast is specific to the new city boundaries. The Goleta Census Designated Place demographic profile is in Appendix VI of the RGF. Population Estimates For estimating budgetary responsibilities, a City of Goleta fiscal analysis, prepared for the Local Area Formation Commission (LAFCO) provides annual population and housing estimates to the year 2011. Annual growth comparable to prior years was applied to future years. It is assumed that the growth limitations imposed by the Goleta Growth Management Ordinance and the Goleta Community Plan, provides for a population growth rate of approximately 1.1 percent annually. The Goleta Community Plan is considered to remain until the new city provides alternative land use policies. The analysis further suggests that the city will continue to develop steadily and probably will not reach buildout within the year 2011 time frame of the fiscal analysis. The fiscal analysis of Goleta City included a current population estimate of 29,000 based on 1990 Census data with updates of new housing developed over the ten year period. Since 1990, approximately 1,200 new residential units were added to the Goleta Valley, averaging 120 per year or about a .4 percent annual growth rate. Total population
113
growth has been greater than the rate implied by the new unit development alone. There apparently have been increases in residents per household to account for population growth, in addition to the construction of new housing units. Other data sources included in the fiscal analysis were the Department of Finance (household size increases), and the Santa Barbara County Planning Department (housing unit permits). Group quarters were estimated by maintaining a constant 1990 Census proportion of group quarters to the household population. Occupancy rates are held constant. The growth rate is composed of two different rates: an estimated 0.44 percent annual increase in housing units, and a 0.70 percent annual increase in persons per household. The fiscal study population estimate of 29,000 was verified using 2000 Census data overlaid with the new city boundaries. The ArcView Geographic Information System was then used to aggregate all the census areas within the city limits and to develop a population estimate. The population of some rural areas that were not entirely contained within the new city was omitted, which may tend to underestimate the population. An estimate for this method results in a population of approximately 27,000 with an additional 500 added for rural area undercount. For forecasting purposes the year 2000 Census based population estimate of 27,500 will be used with growth rates consistent with the fiscal study. City of Goleta Population, Household, And Household Size Projections Item
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
27,500 27,960 28,400 28,890 29,400 29,900 30,400 30,800 31,300 31,800 32,300 32,400 Population Households 9,780 9,960 10,100 10,280 10,400 10,570 10,700 10,880 11,000 11,190 11,290 11,290 2.81 2.81 2.81 2.81 2.82 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.84 2.84 2.86 2.87 HSLD Size
City of Goleta Population and Housing Unit Projection Continued Item

2015 2020 2025 2030
32,960 33,420 33,870 34,320 Population Households 11,290 11,290 11,290 11,290 2.92 2.96 3.00 3.04 HSLD Size
Available Land Potentially available new future housing, based on current zoning, amounts to 1,400 additional units. This number was derived from the 1998 Goleta Valley Outlook. In this report, the Goleta Cumulative Projects List was used to determine those approved, proposed, and likely sites for development. The units proposed for these sites were summed. When the new City of Goleta develops its own General Plan this assessment may change, however for purposes of the current RGF 2000, existing land use designations are utilized.
114
There is not sufficient residential land available to accommodate the forecast growth in housing and population at a rate consistent with the fiscal analysis assumption of .4 percent annually. The City of Goleta would theoretically buildout its residentially zoned land by 2010. The future commercial, retail, industrial land availability consists of approximately 2,438,000 square feet. This information was obtained from the Goleta Valley Outlook publication that contains an assessment of the vacant land as of 1998. Unincorporated Goleta vs. Goleta City The new City of Goleta incorporated a large portion of the previously unincorporated Goleta Valley, however there is still a proportion of the area remaining as unincorporated. The following tables show the population and household forecast over the 30-year period for the remaining unincorporated area, the City of Goleta, and the total unincorporated subregion as used in the body of the RGF 2000. Santa Barbara Subregion Population Distribution
Area Unincorp SB City of Goleta RGF 2000 Unincorporated Subregion
2000 64,900 27,500
2005 68,500 29,900
2010 71,200 32,300
2015 75,840 32,960
2020 79,680 33,420
2025 80,530 33,870
2030 81,380 34,320
92,400
98,400
103,500
108,800
113,100
114,400
115,700
Santa Barbara Subregion Household Distribution
Area Unincorp SB City of Goleta RGF 2000 Unincorporated Subregion
2000 21,456 9,780 31,236
2005 22,273 10,400 32,673
2010 22,820 11,290 34,110
2015 24,257 11,290 35,547
2020 25,346 11,290 36,636
2025 25,346 11,290 36,636
2030 25,346 11,290 36,636
115
116
APPENDIX II PUBLIC AND TECHNICAL REVIEW PROCESS The Regional Growth Forecast review process began in June of 2001 with input from the Technical Planning Advisory Committee (TPAC). This committee is composed of local planning staff from each of the jurisdictions in Santa Barbara County. Their official comments and SBCAG responses are available upon request. In addition minutes from TPAC meetings, on the administrative draft of the RGF are also available. Public workshops were held in late November and December. Comments from these workshops and their responses are also available apon request. In general, technical comments ranged from suggesting lower household size estimates due to declining school enrollment, revised estimates of buildout, more detailed analysis of inmigrants and their characteristics as well as a redefined role for SBCAG to engage in more regional land use policy issues. These comments and others were reviewed and incorporated as appropriate into subsequent drafts of the RGF. The review schedule follows. The review period was extended to allow the local jurisdictions additional time to familiarize themselves with the material and inform their Planning Commissions and Councils when necessary. The Forecast results were presented to the Santa Barbara Planning Commission, and several interest groups.
Regional Growth Forecast 2000 - 2030 Review Schedule

Date Event
June 28 2001 Oct. 18 Nov. 3 Nov. 28, Dec 5th Dec. 13 Dec. 17 Jan. 17 Feb. 7, 2002 Feb. 12 March 21
Draft sent to TPAC SBCAG briefing Public Draft Distributed Public Workshops: 28th in Santa Maria Government Center 6:30 PM 5th in Santa Barbara Board of Superv. 6:30 PM SBCAG board hearing to receive public comments Deadline for all comments. Revised Final report issued to TPAC with response to comments TPAC review/approval Final report issued to SBCAG board and public with TPAC review and response to comments SBCAG board adoption
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APPENDIX III REFERENCES
1. Santa Barbara County. Long Term Economic Forecast, California Department of Transportation, September 2000 2. Hayghe, Howard V. Womens Labor Force Rates. Developments in Womens Labor Force Participation, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, September 1997. 3. Dohm, Arlene. Retiring Baby-boomers, Gauging the Labor Force Effects of Retiring Babyboomers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, July 2000. 4. Fullerton, Howard N. Jr., Labor Force 2006: Slowing Down and Changing Composition, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 1997. 5. Fullerton, Howard N. Jr., Labor Force participation: 75 Years of Change, 1950-98 and 1998-2025, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, December 1999. 6. Fullerton, Howard N. Jr., Employment Outlook: 1998-2008, Labor Force Projections to 2008: Steady Growth and Changing Composition, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 1999. 7. Muncy, Dorothy A. Urban Land Institute, Technical Bulletin No. 23, Space for Industry, July 1954. 8. United States Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C., Santa Barbara County MSA Projections to 2045, July 1998. 9. California State Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, November 1999. 10. California State Department of Finance, Actual and Projected Births by County, 1970-2008, With Births by Age of Mother and Fertility Rates, December 1999. 11. California State Department of Finance, Industry Projections Introduction and Methods, California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information, 1995-2002 12. California State Department of Finance, Report 95 E-2, Population Estimates for California State and Counties. Revised Estimates July 1990 through 1994. 13. California State Department of Finance, Report 96 E-1, Population Estimates for California Cities and Counties, January 1, 1996 and 1995, 14. California Employment Development Department Labor Market Information, Occupations with Greatest Growth Santa Barbara County. Labor Market Information 1995-2002.
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15. California Employment Development Department, Santa Barbara County, California Employment Development Labor Market Information. Industry Trends and Outlook, 19972004. 16. Steven Levy, California County Projections. Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, 2000 Edition. 17. UCSB Economic Forecast, Economic Outlook 2000, April 2000. 18. UCLA Anderson Forecast, Kimbell, Larry. The Economic Outlook, 1997-1999. 19. Arnold, Robert K. and Levy, Stephen. The Outlook for the California Economy, Summer 2000. 20. Santa Barbara County Association of Governments. Jobs Housing Study, March 1995. 21. City of Buellton. Urban & Economic Growth Report, February 2000. 22. California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit. Migration Between California and Other States: 1985-1994, November 1995. 23. Santa Barbara County Planning and Development, Santa Ynez Valley Newsletter, March 2001. 24. Santa Barbara County Planning and Development, Santa Barbara County 2030 Land and Population, the Potential Effects of Population Growth on Urban and Rural Lands, November 2000.
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Regional Growth Forecast

POPULATION HOUSING EMPLOYMENT

173600 264324 298694 369608 399347 461900 504400 521000

2002 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

CITIES BUELLTON CARPINTERIA GUADALUPE LOMPOC SANTA BARBARA SANTA MARIA

TECHNICAL PLANNING ADVISORY COMMITTEE 2002 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER

GOLETA GUADALUPE 0 LOMPOC

JEFF EDWARDS Deputy City Engineer

2002 TPAC Membership Roster

SPECIAL DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVES

85 87 90 91 92 93 94 95 105 106 108 110 110

37 38 38 39 40 47 49 49 50,51 66 68 69 73 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 86 88 89 97 98 99 100 101 102

6-1 6-2 6-3

104 106 108

Components of the Cohort Survival Model LIST OF MAPS

Santa Barbara County Subregions Santa Barbara County School Districts

Santa Barbara County Association of Governments

Forecast of Population Employment Land Use 2000-2030

comprehensive planning. forecast will serve as

towards development of:

Santa Maria City and the Orcutt Valley. A population forecast

process. To simplify the process it is divided into three distinct sections.

2030 Population Distribution 521,000 Total

Historical and Forecast Growth Rates

174000 264000 299000 370000 399000 462000 505000 521000

City of Guadalupe 6,700 Total

City of Santa Maria 113,700 Total

Unincorporated Santa Maria Valley/Orcutt 56,000 Total

Unincorporated Cuyama Valley 1,600 Total

Unincorporated Lompoc Valley 25,300 Total

Unincorporated Santa Ynez Valley 15,200 Total

City of Buellton 5,900 Total

City of Lompoc 49,900 Total

City of Solvang 6,300Total

City of Carpinteria 16,000 Total

2010-2030 SBCAG Forecast Employment

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Employment 178,000 193,000 205,000 218,000 231,000 244,000 257,000 79,000

Percent Change 2000-2005.8.4% 2005-2010.6.2% 2010-2015.6.3% 2015-2020.6.0% 2020-2025.5.6% 2025-2030.5.3% ..44.0%

Employment by SIC in 1999 178,000 Total

Employment by SIC in 2030 257,000 Total

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 3%

Land Use Forecast

Residential Construction Ceiling 49,000 Units

Total Available 2000-2030 Period 28,500 Units

Santa Maria Developed

Land Use Forecast

Existing Jobs 121,800 10,700 21,900 46,100 200,500

Developed Land in Acres 2,240 580 560 4,820 8,190

Employees Per Acre 54.0 18.0 39.0 9.6 24.5

Forecast Compared to Available Space

Births and Mortality

Percentage of Countywide Births in 1996, 6,000 Total

Lompoc 13% Guad. 2% Solv. 2% Buell. 1%

Santa Barbara 23% Uninc. 28%

Births and Mortality

Time Period 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

Births 34,000 39,000 42,000 43,000 44,000 44,000

Mortality 13,000 17,000 19,000 20,000 22,000 24,000

Net change 21,000 22,000 23,000 23,000 22,000 20,000

6,000 Number of Persons

Age 60+ 17%

Age 0-19 28%

Age 20-44 36%