The effect of lowered sea level on Indo-Pacific climate as simulated by the SPEEDY AGCM

Eleanor A. Middlemas, Kim M. Cobb, Emanuele Di Lorenzo Georgia Institute of Technology Introduction
Climate during the Last Glacial Maximum is characterized by lower atmospheric CO2, increased albedo, large continental ice sheets, and altered ocean circulation. The effect of a 125m fall sea level is typically considered negligible, despite the presence of a newly-exposed continental-sized landmass in the Indo-Pacific, referred to as the Sunda Shelf. Paleoclimate records indicate that during the LGM, El-Nino Southern Oscillation was weaker1, the sea-surface temperature gradient along the equatorial pacific may have changed2,3, and that the western Pacific may have been drier than today4,5.

emiddlemas3@gatech.edu Results and Discussion

Results
Modern
Mean Precipitation
80-N 60-N 40-N 20-N 0 20-N 40-N 60-S 80-S 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 80-N 60-N 40-N 20-N 0 20-N 40-N 60-S 80-S 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 80-N 60-N 40-N 20-N 0 20-N 40-N 60-S 80-S -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

LGM

LGM - Modern 1. Mean state

mm/day14
Precipitation (mm/day) Precipitation (mm/day)
80-N 60-N 40-N 20-N 0 20-N 40-N 60-S 80-S

Precipitation anomalies (mm/day)

Mean Precipitation significantly wetter conditions over new land cover areas, with drier conditions in immediate surrounding area off the Sunda Shelf, opposing bands of wet/dry anomalies saddle the equator from the western Indian to the central Pacific, suggesting a shift in the location or intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone Mean Vertical Velocity changes mirror precipitation changes, with increased vertical advection associated with increased rainfall in the new land cover areas

Figure 1) Comparison of modern-day IndoPacific (left) to LGM (right).

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/topo/globega2.html

Mean Vertical Velocity ()

80-N 60-N 40-N 20-N 0 20-N 40-N 60-S 80-S

The only modeling experiment that attempted to isolate the effects of the Sunda Shelf on LGM climate documented significant changes in the tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation6. A recent survey of coupled O-A climate models found that the Sunda Shelf drove a weakening of Warm Pool convection that varied in strength among the different models7.

mm/day
-0.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

50-N 40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N 0 10-S 20-S

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.02

0.04

0.06

-0.06

-0.025

-0.015

-0.005

0.005

0.015

0.025

(Pa/s)

(Pa/s)

(Pa/s)

2. Response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation SST forcing

Precipitation around the Sunda Shelf, rainfall in the northern Warm Pool region decreased, and increased in the southern Warm Pool regions pattern of response different than changes in mean precipitation; but about half as large as changes in mean precipitation

Precipitation Regressed on NINO34

Objectives
To investigate the climatic effects of lowered sea level by altering the land mask in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) to reflect exposed LGM land. Effects of interest include: 1) changes in mean tropical Indo-Pacific climate and b) changes in the tropical and extratropical responses to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

80-N 60-N 40-N 20-N 0 20-N 40-N 60-S 80-S -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

80-N 60-N 40-N 20-N 0 20-N 40-N 60-S 80-S -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

mm/day
mm/day

40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N 0 10-S 20-S 30-S 40-S -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

mm/day

mm/day

3. Teleconnected responses in the North Pacific

EOF1 of Sea Level Pressure
60-N 50-N 60-N 50-N 40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N 60-N 50-N

Methods
Utilized the atmospheric general circulation model SPEEDY8 - Simplified Parametrizations, primitivE-Equation Dynamics - 3.75Lon x 3.70Lat resolution, 8 Vertical Levels In control run, SSTs were prescribed from 10S to 10N, with a 50m slab ocean elsewhere. In LGM run, the landmask was altered to approximate expanded LGM landmasses from N. Australia to N. China (Figure 2). The new land gridpoints were assigned on a sliding scale of 0.1 to 1, according to the percentage of land vs. ocean in the specific gridcell. Both runs were forced by 1950-2010 prescribed SSTs in the 10S-10N tropical domain; 50 ensembles were run for the control and the LGM configuration. A combination of statistical methods were employed to investigate the climate signals of interest; the significance of any changes observed between the control and LGM simulations were assessed with a Monte Carlo approach.
Figure 2) The modern (left) and LGM (middle) masks. The right panel illustrates the % ocean assignments for each of the coastal red gridpoints in the middle panel, where 0.1 = 10% ocean and 0.9% = 90% ocean).

40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N

mm/day
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1

40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N

Sea Level Pressure Aleutian low variability increased by approximately 15%, likely associated with a stronger extratropical response to ENSO variability Extratropical SST response to associated atmospheric anomalies consistent with stronger basin-scale response to tropical ENSO variability
-0.15 -0.05 0 0.25 0.15 0.25

-1

-0.5

0.5

-0.25

hPa

hPa

hPa

SST regressed on PC1 of Sea Level Pressure

60-N 50-N 40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N 60-N 50-N 40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N 60-N 50-N

Future Work
Considering the significant response of the atmospheric circulation patterns to the presence of the Sunda Shelf in SPEEDY, it is important to investigate how the response varies in a coupled OA model such as the NCAR CESM. The suite of atmospheric signals presented here may either be damped for amplified by O-A coupling.

mm/day
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

40-N 30-N 20-N 10-N

-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1

-0.1

-0.06

Temperature (C)

Temperature (C)

Temperature (C)

-0.02

0.02

0.06

0.1

Figure 2) The modern-day Bering Strait (left) was closed during the LGM (right)

Conclusions and Implications

Exposing the Sunda Shelf surrounding areas has significant impacts on Indo-Pacific mean climate state climate, with the largest responses located in the Sunda Shelf region itself. Significant atmospheric changes extend into the western Indian Ocean and into the Northern Pacific. Comparisons with proxies from these regions awaits a similar experiment performed with a fullycoupled climate model, but it is clear that the presence of the Sunda Shelf likely altered precipitation in the near vicinity of the landmass, as discussed in previous work, and possibly in ENSO-sensitive regions. It is critically important to distinguish the sea level response in Indo-Pacific proxies from the response associated with lower CO2/cooler global temperatures, in order to better constrain how this region may respond to rising temperatures in the coming decades.
This undergraduate research was supported by NSF. The presenter would appreciate discussing graduate research opportunities available in your lab.

The largest change in LGM land/ocean configuration, apart from the Sunda Shelf, is the closure of the Bering Strait. This may have effects on the oceans thermohaline circulation, and/or impact North Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate variability. If so, then this would have consequences for the buildup or maintenance of large continental ice sheets in North American and Eurasia. Future work will focus on simulating the climate effects of a closed Bering Strait.

References
(1) Tudhope, AW; Chilcott, CP; McCulloch, MT; et. al. Science 291 (2001): 1511-1517. (2) Lea, DW; Pak, DK; Spero, HJ. Science 289 (2000): 17191724. (3) Koutavas, A; Lynch-Stieglitz, J; Marchitto, TM; et al. Science 297 (2002): 226-230. (4) Martinez, JI; DeDeckker, P; Chivas, AR. Marine Micropaleontology 32 (1997): 311-340. (5) Partin, J.P., Cobb, K.M., et al., Nature (2007): 452-455. (6) Bush, ABG; Fairbanks, RG. Journal of Geophysical Research 108 (2003): 1-10. (7) DiNezio, PM; Clement, A; Vecchi, GA; et al. Paleoceanography 26 (2011): 1-26. (8) Molteni, F. Climate Dynamics 20 (2003): 175-191.