Sustainable Development in a Fragile Ecosystem

Chris Brown

This presentation: Threats Namibias setting Impacts of devolution Climate change Conclusions

Key threats to Ecosystems

Land transformation Loss of biological diversity
Impacts of climate change

Rural poverty And these are all interrelated

Kunene

Zambezi

Kavango
Chobe Kwando Linyanti

RIVERS
Perennial Rivers
All other rivers flow briefly during good rainy seasons and some may not flow for many years

Orange

KEY TO RAINFALL

RIVERS RAINFALL and LAND CAPABILITY

Namibia is an arid country

Key to Land Capability

Wildlife Desert Arid Domestic Livestock

Crops

Semi-arid
Semi-arid Sub-humid

T T T T T

Marginal Marginal Marginal

Low Medium Marginal Low

VISION 2030
THE OVERRIDING MESSAGE THAT THIS REPORT CONVEYS IS :
by capitalising on Namibias comparative advantages and providing appropriate incentives to use our natural resources in the most efficient ways possible, we will be in a better position to create a safer, healthier and more prosperous future for all Namibians to 2030 and beyond.

WHAT ARE NAMIBIAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES ?

VAST OPEN SPACES AND WILDERNESS AREAS
ABUNDANT AND DIVERSE BIODIVERSITY AND
WILDLIFE POPULATIONS that are well adapted to Namibias harsh climatic and physical conditions, and have extremely high direct & indirect use value.
UNCONTAMINATED MEAT AND

FISH PRODUCTS

Rich CULTURAL diversities and valuable TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE

Efficient SERVICE Industries

Biological diversity

Endemic diversity

Small scale cereal & livestock 5.5 million ha

Cattle 31 million ha

People Goats

2.1 million 2.0 million

Sheep Cattle
Wildlife

2.0 million 2.0 million

2.0 million +

Small stock 27 million ha

Distribution of wildlife:

Intensive agriculture 0.04 million ha

Biodiversity setting continued..

Protected Areas Concessions Freehold Conservancies Communal Conservancies

Vegetation types

Biomes

Registered & emerging Communal Conservancies = 18.5%

State Protected Areas = 16.5%

Total Area under conservation management

44.5%
Community Forests and Concessions = 1.3%

Freehold Conservancies = 6.1%

Private protected areas 2.1%

Livestock and wildlife numbers in Namibia over past 40 years

5.000.000

Cattle

4.500.000
4.000.000

Small-stock
Wildlife

3.500.000
3.000.000

2.500.000
2.000.000

1.500.000
1.000.000

500.000
0

1971/2

1981/2

1991/2

2001/2

2004

2008

2009

Number of people employed in the agricultural sector

(data from the Ministry of Labour & Social Services)
160.000
140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000

60.000
40.000

20.000
0 1997 2000 2004 2008

Live capture & sell

Venison production

Live sale

Meat production

Tourism

Trophy hunting

Own use

Own use

Springbok - 950 Oryx - 2,200 Kudu - 2,900 Giraffe - 15,000 Roan - 120,000 Sable - 220,000 Buffalo - 350,000 White Rhino - 250,000 Black Rhino - 500,000

Live sale (N$)

Cattle 1,500 - 5,000

Goats - 200 - 700

Tourism (million N$)

Trophy hunting - 316

Wildlife viewing 2,700

Higher financial returns from indigenous species management in lower rainfall areas

Policy failures drive down values of indigenous species Higher financial returns from exotic species management in areas of high rainfall & soil fertility Subsidies (e.g. in agriculture) drive up value of exotic species management

Rainfall (land productivity)

National level
Total gross annual output of whole agricultural sector (large & small stock, N$1,878 million and crops) commercial and subsistence sectors Total gross annual output of nonagricultural natural resource based sector ( tourism, trophy hunting, N$3,200 million wildlife products, indigenous plant products, etc i.e. indigenous biodiversity) commercial sector only
Indigenous biodiversity production systems have overtaken agricultural production systems and exceed them by a factor of at least two times

Best returns on land - financial results: Karas region

Item
Financial gross income per hectare (N$) Net cash income per hectare (N$) Livelihoods income (N$) Financial rate of return

Communal Freehold livestock livestock

4.71 15.00

Tourism

165.00

0.93 1.08 5.5%

0.48 3.27 9.8%

23.00 19.00 12.9%

Job creation: farming versus tourism

140

Fulltime employment - operational

120

Contract employment - building

Numbers of employees

100 80 60 40 20 0 before 1996 farming 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Farming

Years

The tourism sector

Massive growth in tourism since 1989 Now over 800 000 visitors / year 6.9% growth projected for next 10 years 72,000 jobs; N$6.8 billion to GDP = 16% of total GDP
800000

600000

No of visitors

400000

200000

0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2006 2007

Year

Num ber of tourism establishm ents registered w ith the Nam ibia Tourism Board in 20042006 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
2004
2005

2006

Number of hunters visiting Namibia

Year: 1994 1999 2004 2008

Number of hunters

1,918

4,030

5,363

7,000

Overall increase 265% Trophy hunting (2005) earned N$316 million - 20% more than all small stock farming (freehold and communal together)

350000

300000

250000

Area of land (km2) under each type of conservation management: 1975 - 2010

200000

150000

100000

50000

1975

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1987

1988

1990

1991

1993

1994

1996

1997

1999

2000

2002

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Freehold wildlife management unit

Community Forest

Private Reserve
Communal Conservancy

Concession

Protected Area

2010

1976

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Percentage of Biomes covered by different forms of conservation management

Percentage of Vegetation types covered by different forms of conservation management

Connectivity and co-management linking parks and conservancies

Some wildlife trends in communal conservancies

Poaching virtually stopped

Increasing wildlife numbers Elephant & rhino doubled

Predator recovery Rise in HWC Conservancy management skills built

Between 1999 20127

Total almost 5,000 animals translocated 5 different species Value over N$15 million

6 locally extinct species Black rhino Giraffe

Black faced impala Burchells zebra

Blue wildebeest Sable antelope

Mudumu north Complex

Khaudum north Complex

Greater Waterberg Complex Greater Sossusvlei Complex

Co-management approaches

Greater Fish River Canyon Complex

Greater SossusvleiNamib comanagement Complex

Climate change projections

Temperature changes

Climate change projections continued ..

Climate change projections continued ..

Projected changes in rainfall across Africa

Impacts on production systems

Small scale cereal & livestock 5.5 million ha (9%)

Current broad land uses in Namibia

Cattle 31 million ha (38%)

People Goats Sheep

2.1 million 2.4 million 2.4 million

Cattle
Small stock 27 million ha (33%)

2.2 million 2-3 million

Wildlife

Intensive agriculture 0.04 million ha (<1%)

Climate change projections continued ..

Current mean annual rainfall across Namibia

Projected mean annual rainfall across Namibia by 2050 and 2080, according to predictions generated by the HADCM3 general circulation model

Impacts on Cropping Growing Season Failure

2000

2050

2050

2080

Projected areas lost to rainfed crop production in Namibia and number of people impacted By 2050
4 million ha
209,000 people
28% of rural pop.

Present

By 2080
6 million ha
485,000 people
38% or rural pop.

Projected prime largestock farming areas in Namibia

2080 Prime large-stock area lost By 2050 By 2080

2050 Present

9 million ha

18 million ha

Relationship between rainfall and carrying capacity

y = 0.0002x^2 -0.0498x + 7.000

500

400

Revenue per hectare

300

Livestock farming revenue is strongly linked to annual rainfall. A 1% change in rainfall leads to a 1.36% change in revenue per ha.

200

100

-100 current 2050 Time period 2080

Median 25%-75% Non-Outlier Range Outliers

Projected livestock and wildlife numbers in Namibia in response to climate change

5.000.000 4.500.000 4.000.000 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0

Cattle

Smallstock
Wildlife

Present

2050

2080

Conclusions
1. Build on comparative and competitive advantages 2. Link conservation to rural development and livelihood diversification 3. Align markets to work for conservation of indigenous ecosystems and biodiversity through appropriate policies and legislation on wise and sustainable use 4. Devolve rights and responsibilities over land and natural resources to local level 5. Use protected areas to create incentives for compatible land uses and as engines for local & national development 6. Limit the role of government to that of creating a conducive environment, regulating for equity and providing extension and capacity-building services to the rural

And finally, If you work against market forces, you will fail. If you work with market forces you have harnessed the most powerful partner available.

Thank you