Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
258
. BALANCE OF TFZAK, FEPIXTTPINCEG llWD , NET ChPITfiL FLOWS : QN ANQLVSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT I N KERRLA SINCE INDEPENDENCE
October 1992
CUY M A L Y S I S O F
RC)LMCE OF TRClDE. R E M I T T M E S MJD NET CC)PtTCW, FLOWS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN KEF;tAiA SINCE INDEPENDENCE
abajur- draw
back of the
plsthoca of
regional s t u d i e s i n
that
regi~nal duvelupnrent are not. gi.ven sufficiant cansideration. Ut best such a cmncorn is canCirjed to c e n t r e s t b t e bu.,.dgetac-.* flows; which a r e orrly o n e component o f the overall f e y i anal bal anze u* payments accaunt.
impinge
on
? h e reasons f a r t h e abave lacunae arc both e m p i r i c a l
as well
as tnaoratical.
block..
serious stumbling
t h e tools
P t o r-ecf~onaiaccounts o f trade,
p a r - t i c u t a r ly t h o s e related t o
in the
a+ i n t e r n a t i o n a l relations. t h e i r transportation t o the realm oS r-egiatbal analysis is beset witn ncrmer~)uf)problems. Ttta present paper I s an attempt to integrate external relations i n t o the analysis of regional development of Ker ala.
refrned
Kerala has a h i g h l y
of t h e r r products. St exports araund SS per cent o f t.he output of its primary and secondary sectors to the r e s t of I n d i a and fat-eiqn countritas. 4 1 ever, greater proportion of the regional consumption is m e t through imparts. CThomas Isaac and Heddy, 19921 In terms af per c a p i t a s t a t e domestic product or its g r o w t h over time, Kerala 5 % one o f t h e backward s t a t a s i n the country. ?Ioder-n industrial activity is yet t o make any oignificant Impact on t h e regional production s t r u c t u r e . The
aqro-processa ng i~ l d ~ t s tecj, ri
pt'odu.ccion
which
oominale t h e
secondary rcctmr
;.r!tenar vs,
sur-pl us
as empl oyrnent , are character i s e d by labwt and l o w pr0du.ct.ivi t y t e c h n i ques. Historically there
as we>. 1
indilstriirs pl ~ y e d
odtput
of
thka
tlte
role of
has
. r e s i o u a l sectur a c c ~ m o d a t i n g the
As a
1 i\lor!?" C7'ht;nas
Isaac, 13923.
t-esul t
, per
capita
besn r e l a t i v & ? . ? . l ylow even thauyh a areater p r o p o r t ~ o n cC +:lie regronal workfarce is rmp1ty.d i n the rrcsn aui"icu2tul-a1 E ~ C ~ Q F .Si;antra f o r Development Studies, 1'3773 Despite ti\e 1 - e l a t i v e l y backward p r o d u c t 1 or\ base, t h e r.giona1 3evaloprnent 1.135 ;leer1 c i i e t i n q u i shed by significant racial invas tacni. t n educht i orb. h e c ~tl h arcd o t h e r sac; r l in+ rastructut-us L T h t - a k a r , , 1?Y2;. Crnsequsnt1 y , t h e work.+arce i n lierala is
region
bettor educatecr. The
aclu.cat ional attainment
uf t h e wwlcforcm,
tna l a w
la:>c'?ur a b s o r ~ p t i a nc ~ p a c i t y of
h ig 1 :
aycicu).t u r e dominated by
relationc
i n trdarb vi si b l C- undei'emplaymen z n the region. l'he above compoundsd Lip t h e slow grohcit CC jvb opportunities in ttle moderrs sector hss caused an cjpen ~tnsmplsycnantr a t s nearly thrse t~ v i e s t h a t u+ the national a v e r a g e CMctkherjge and Thomas Isaac, 17'!f I . Micjration to r e s t of I n d i a and to foreign countries car. ba consi der-eb as an i [::pot-tant ad j u s t n ~ e n t mmechani s m t o the worsening einployntent situation zn the state.
In
sb~ort, t r a d e
arid
migration
oS
at.-e
two
vitsi
ext~rnal WE
r e l a t i 0 9 6 rtrat have to
e x p l a r r l the
trads
be e x p l i c i t l y consider-ird I n
any atte:ltpt t o
ha'ura
r e q i ~ n a l development
Kerala state.
discussed eLsewhere i n d e t a i l
and growing imbalance
extct-{.:a1
Racldy, 19923.
A severe
in the e x t e r n a l t r a d e was seen as m e c ~ f the nrost impcrrtant Ceatc~.resof K e r a t a ' s external trade i n the recent periad. The r e l e v a n t data i s summavised i n Table 1.
Rs.
Rs.
were
The
exported frcn
total
to Rs. 1448 c r o r w Rs,3441 croresa The exports exzeed t imparts in international trade while the i m p o r t s exreed the ewpartb I n interregional trade. Overall, the imparts are higher than
amount&
imports in
those years
and
the
the
tne
exports.
7hu.s i n both years, Eerala had a sizeable trade deficit. 6s the imports tended te grad fastsv than the exports, w e S i n d t h a t the trade de4icii: u f t h e region r ~ s e froin ~s:223 crares l a Rs.822 crores cfurirtg the period under tli ecusai o n . Yhs damstic product o f t h e region at factor cost was Rs.2228.24 cruras i n 1973-76 and Rs. .YSGl5.36 crar-es in 1988-81. The trade d M i c i t s have sharply increased re1ativel y to the 1 ncreass * o f dam-tic product% on w i t h i n t h e state. The r a t i o was 1 6 per c e n t i n 1475-76 and 23
per cant: l n 29811)-81,
It wag noted that it would be unrealistic to assume that t h e suhskantiaL volume af crude petr-aleurn nousd i n t o and redined a i t c moved out as . regianal imports and exports. The Cochrn refineries, a central public sector undertaking, could be troetad asan enclsve unit and the imports of crude petroleum and a x p o c - t s of 'processed mineral u i f 3 be 1.gnclrsd. Instpad, t h e actual consumption o f the mineral ai 1s i t r Kerala crxrl'd be considered to be its net imparts. Qccordingly the trade d e f i c i t , accardiny to our secand set of estimates, i n 1975-76 was R s . 3 6 4 croras and 862 crare6 in 1988-81. The ratio of t r a d e daSfcit to a t a t a d~mestic p r d u c t rises f r o m 16 per. cent i n 1975-76 to 24 percent i n 198881.
Table. 1
E s t i m a t e s n+ Reglor?c?t E;<pat-ts,
u.F Eera3a
't'oar
Cxp~rt.; (cteur-es )
Imports (cr-ares)
Trade balance
Estimate 1
1975-76
1224.92
(S4.P).
1445.08
(b4.9) E44 1.43 t98.2)
-223.16
t 10.0) -826.88 f23.6)
-364.80
1.988-8 1
2&,15.z?,
(74, S j
Estimate 2.
1975.-7b
1862.34
(47.7)
. ,a
1980-.u1
Nate:
2 iQ" 2fJ
(16.3)
-861.04 (24.5)
i6'2.3)
1.
-<=~="=="=~==l=~==l=2=~~~If~=~=z;=~===~=====~====*======
F:+=j'-lres i n parenthesis r e f e r s to t h e
estimates
,.
as a c#eucuntage af SDP.
: L T ~ Q I R . X~ ~d ~d~ c and Reddy, iY921.
sL1UrrTIe
Irlhat I S t h e
sii
that: w e
to
ttte
ka regianal analysis? l't i s ta this quastiafi addr-es5 a~,trsslves i n Section 1. The Section 2 i s devoted .Fair1 y clckai1rtd aaaLysls o+ t h e masgive inflaw . o f '
on
r e g f.unal. consumpt i or?,
t e i r r i tisnc:at.
s a v i n g r and
grawth during
ldst one and hs1.f decades. i n Section 3 w e shall atteinpt t G i !?+'eut h e broad t r - q r ~ c i r j 1n net capi taZ f 1nws i n t a the rcqimn
indireitl y thraugh esaminirtg tho
sii.lce
indspencience. W e
trends i n t h e balance
af trade
t u periodisa Kerala's develrpment experience inta distinct phases 0 1 1 t h e basis of behaviour. a+ key n~acra-economir= v a r , i . a h les sctch as domestic p r . o d u r t , consumptian, i n v e s t m e c t c-etni k tances, n e t cabi tal f l o w s and t r a d e balance. I n t h e concluding Sect i an 4 w e shall sumrnari se our f i n d i n g s sod emphasise certain braad pol i c y imp1 i c a t i o n s o+ our di~cuscian.
hope
u+ our itriow3.adye the on1 y serious attsmpt t o g r a g p l e w i t 9 t h e ecortamir, significance o f i n t e r . - r e g i o n a l trade baianc* i n t h e : t ~ d r u n c:crnz:sxt itas besn by B.N. Ganguli T19tS23. Based on 5,3;vasi;u~t;-a.nrniat1 's C1 ' 3 6 2 ~ estimates, P r o f . G a n g ~ ri l dr&w atteni. i o r 1 L o tr~e sf qni t i cart tr ade I mbal ar:ce that exist between \ r a r i o ~ ! Sr e g i o n s i r ~ Tt~dra attempted to analyse i t as a case o t
to
t!14+
' international
Scst
he r ~ o t e dt h a t
developed to
in
permit
'abserltwe
p a r t i c x p a t i n g active1 y
lacri
invest,h~ersec' or fur e 4 f i c i s n t
ctroventer~ts '
"In
India t h e
I-eqiuns
paymeilt p o s i t i o n
o f at
..
Paytnents
+cam r e y i e n
But banks i n
X cannot
f o r e s t a l l any
enough government
sectmdary reserves.
it?
i n g back on othstdeposits
ot
S a t ~ kv.c;cservro; .dnd
as tha
nlultiple
contraciron
the assets
and may
oC
banks
bank
are not
i . e d a i l y saleable
+ai1urerh EGanyuli i902: 1P41, Factors s ~ t c hus rapid integration o+ Indian ecorto~;ty and d o v e 1 upfliafrt: o+ i r l t e g r at ed banls.l n y iratwor k have proved
o u t s ~ d oS ,
0 . C .
even cause
s(.tct-I fears
r ey i orial
Further,
such
also unlikely because t h e trade deficit rugions were 1 i k e l y to be the e c o n o n ~ i c a ly l advanced r e g i o n s wh?:?u i t was khe backward r.agiot.rs t h a t had trade surpl uses. P r o t . G a ~ 3 q u l i himselq h i n t s o f the above peculiar r e l a t i o n s h i p in nisi discussion af t h e causes o f r e g i o n a l trade i mbal ancas.
f i ! ~ a n c i a i dlsequi l ihr ia
mkLat.!~.:.~.C -l%!!.@!m? 9 8 . .QE% .t~..~~f3x 9 c % . nJ CfntrateraX trersscet-e 6 4 capital .;and incane uao
the
ma.,--
.it-di.v~;if QPS
inveet~rcii art4
+odor-a1 gavernriwnt.
ltr this
and f Q ~ M gq X f raae1*,
Ttrti 4,'irut
ttype
Zrtdian davelopmerrh
t t c i r l e j~uvpf us during
the cofanzai period. It was na.t a d g n d Lnaian p r - a s ~ e r i t y but caunterpart t h e n e t tt-anstar resources from colmfal Zndia. Similarly, "tcr~ea, land rwmrto, ir?-i$at.isndueo, irrterast and atnortizatiorr of loans OfiginatiW in b i g y w commrcial cmtres, interest on advurcus mde by m!.do;lamerr w t i o tv-arwfer their' ear-nings to b i q g s r c m ~ t r M , rm; ttances crF prof i tr a+ capitalistic entarprism i n the a~rttw-lanuwe af i #V?.(RS of unlliptewal transfer a9 funds.. Thc,tt cor~:.ctat'pnrt i n r e a l %arms is the e x p o r t surpIus taking the fwr *2f cWtwcli t i e r b i ri the 1 M ~ Q runu ' ' C G i r i ~ i ~ ~ 19628 l 1 0 3 3 i . fCN -* h.+f~othetsJs has not so f a r been v a r t f i e d cmmpirically. But ',fr i s . .. s i q n l f f c a f ~ tto rate t h a t even today any o i the, backward rcyimw i r r Indae hrnve aicvm-t: cawpius while t 9f the advanced f m g i a m have import uuvplus. The trade d e - f a c i t nay be v i m ; a6 a orocecso n e t resource i n + 1 ow and trade surplus as a 'procns # net r-esource nut+ low to and 4rsm the r e g i o n .
Table, 2 drawn up by R. Hahta (1982) m the basis a4 R f m roaa 'awl f 4 L l goads m0~6bmCW)t su~veya+ 2978-79 f s revetrXinq. the data have mmy 1lini t a t i bns. Clt least w i t h respect to W r l a w have been able to show d&f ini t s v a t y t h a t the inr=rdmce & the inter-state trade and tho e x t e n t 04 trade d e f i c i t S r L y
O+
cause
401"
r
+win
trade
imbaFnncesi.
as Uni l*terctl
by prtvaio
6 1 % ~ take
$ . h a
tf-artsf er p,ry.wct r t a
ragion.
,by Che
" U ~lateral I trurts+ws .muart be mde' i w kind. rosspat L R W e i s raally no dliferanco between -tic
o+
urriiatcwr! transfers i r , f a m i l S w
in
iltwatrrro
in
tho
cmt@xC:a f Xndfm
fWet~tI
saac:
A,-I~
DUVVUTY
, 1992 3 .
Desipi tc thess
inter-
atakea 13ur#jeb, Katnataka, +iaryana, Ancl!r~-cr Pt-;*tier-;h Maharar;:~tra, bit sr Pr-tadeeji? and t;:er-3.1 a had s j ,-nj.+rcant t r - a d e <lei. l c : i t r a l ~ l ~ v to e s t a t e OCIflrf3Skiil
that
I t rhowr
n m m i c g +he
mujor
If! tf?:'~s o ; ! per r;ao?.ta t r a d e de+icit, Punja5. ).ti\ryana and Ha.;?arasl.ttrs. t ~ ; , ' r ?.:i@ r.5r.lk5ii. '~!"&Ycc? st;a?;';86 s,130 e n j o y h i yh p e r c a p i t a i ncames. A rnir.icr encrjpki ar? i.j U t tar. Pt.adaa;tt, r'ei at i val y
product.
&fitit.
f r l r,~?ritt..a%t the
per
capita
s t a t e cle~na..;t!.c: product
Bxl'rar, Orissa
and M~dhya.
m a j o r stalms.
state9 ~i t h p e r
c a p 1 ta incamE
--
. . . . . I
-)-----"-------I-
Strtel3.T.
Irp6rt.s
[ 1)
(21
2975 2254 1664 12id . $682 911
730
(4 i
f-11837 (-1 5'54 1-1 b8C ( - 1 551
4-1
(-;
(b'
19.46 3.76
12.7b
.-------L-------.--..-----".-..LI---..-----------~---------~"----I~--I-------------
I n Rrfor S t ~ t e s
1.
Hahrrrrntra
- 1
- 1
(-1 (-1
(-1
'
(-1
t-)
171
91
i4.23
$5.27 12.7;
li6l
bSS
si8l
Haryana
Yerrla
1-1 276
Rajrsthan
Orisss
it. Blhar
I5L5
73
0 58 49 1 60 1 1P82 1965
(-1
- 1 - 1
3.32
2.26 8.13 1.14 16.33 27.8G 43.48
I50
255
373
3P)d
39.08
-----I---------------------
----..--..
(2,
. I -
--..---.. -..
(41
..-CI-".LILII-.C.-o-"o-....-b--.--
$1;
0--
(5)
- 1
i-1
(61
- r r ~ r - - r - - r r r r r - - - e . - c c c c c c c - c c c - o ~ o r r r r r r r - - r r - . r r r - - - u - ~ c - ~ - ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ i i ~ ~ ~
i I . S p e c i i i Category States
1. Clsrre 2, daaeu & 3. nrnigur
4.
fee
Rashnrir
IF1
44
to! lea
Hia~cfial P r a d ~ s b
5. Tripurr
S , Regtiaiaya 7. N a g a l i n d
22 3 I I$
1353
10 lb ( $.St-)
81 34
b
5
(-1 - 1
(-).IS
(-1
3
13
* L
7
. .
26 16 96
923
21
2
531
:a
i
(-)
(-)
16.24 Mag.
12
22609
I2
. . m e . .
U
85
L--"-
-----.----I-"..-
60 -----------.--..----- 135
. 39.40
f9eg
Nag.
833
8
...~o..o~--~II--~-L--..-------
22609
"--"---4---------....I-u-"-----.---~----c~----------------o--
states despite
Kefalr
; : l b o is a s i f111larcase. Its pee capi La state domsstic product i s ictre* than t h e natiailal ;rvt?r-a.~e. 8ut it hias an adverae trade
ln t r t i s instance a m a r t i f i e d version of the second typo \ ~ r dzscqui?. iorA ating unilateral transfers that Prof. Ganguli r a.i-eu r e d ta 3 ber~omsrsr e l evsrnt
Snla~?ca.
in t h e second model 04 adverse regional t r s d a balance ttH r s l a t i v e act-elaratiort of i m p o r t s is ~ n i t i a t e d by large wale flm a+ investmnt +undr by the central gwvar'ncmrct or private capite2tsts i n t o a backward r e g i o n say X. Tho funds are wont on local rcersourcos and on ineporto. 're tho extent t h m funds are expended on local resources, t h e y llrould r a i s e income and t o a I imitm r i s e i n the p r i c e o+ such c ~ t t m c ities. i Bank Gesacvem aiha c l r i L 1 increase to the saxtent oi: Increase i n demand deposits.
"Since banks i r t
loanti, t h s y
X m c ~ y i1ot be aLiie
of
wi 1 1 i n g
i
4 o expand
lucsl
lr~diart
teritc a s s e t s
t h e Bzi;lks
Lh!,oucjh ttis
X i
money rnnt-k.e.n..
ilnaorta r z s s .
I
1i
their
narr
X
rjyste111
nswly acquired
......
ca
nteltt t h e
clrair~t o
:ill
X an0 non-X
ar.e
so 11;-:1:.sd kith
I!? A
a common monetai'.v
tha:
theory
the
appos.itzz
or-i.cs mr)vet~~entsccaritemp1att:d
srnz,ll way
Cap1 tal
~Xasbi~dl oi non
do rtut
occur, except
as prices
serev1ce?;; r i a l ? in X .
morrey incomes i n X ,
se is quickly arresred by h i g h mat-gin3.l prc;y>enslty to imrjort. 'in t h e neantirne since a larqe pitr.t: of t h e capital i n . F l a w i s spr,~'ct: o n ~ m p c r t e dgoods i t
tiut a cucnm~rla.tiver'i
CGariqull
19h2r 103-41.
scirlrii
i n t 1rsw
t h e contemporary
ek.tnerienca i n i:.:srala.
tuvn nbr a t t e n t i o n .
It
J.5
to t h r e
aspect t h a t w e shall
ne~k
Section 2
Imt-gct uf fiespi r e : h r
Remittance
Inflows.
i brig n i sccry
06
tncr
af?ClC.+tiX
times,
re l at i vw1 y
new pncnomeno~
cconcnry l
The d e c s ~i vo
w i t h the
the ?'he
ecoiianric dopr-esz;lorl
~ n
p a u p e r i sation of
breskdowrr
thes;@ t h e
c s f
i n the
thirties t h a t
b;y
duml.r'lated
nlaysd
.
havoc on
c.ammt?rci~l cul$ivation.
of
peasantry, durseni nq
land man
In
ratio,
open
Of
dt
f a m i 1y
str~tctures, spurt
stream5 af m i g?.ation.
by C h r i s t i a n
a1
the
foothills oS
K e r ~ L a CTharakan,
1977-1.
'Chis
intc-arsqirjnal
c n l g r i l . ~ ~ ~ !t.12 .:
tt\e
h i i ly
tract?.
accel arated i n the + i l L r os c;.cid s i , < ? ~HH. i Et~tert-eyional miqra'iiar~ ';othe ut-ban cetxr-ec, 04 I r t d i a rlari b~ cot-w.iCSe~6d ab the EBCO~'~~';
stream
0f ifiiqcst.ton.
b y . :.fie?
sear *:i!
.For
The
0;
c : ! ~ r i f - a jabs. l
(11-uwi nS
Tc
the !;,c.ct
.:'i-6k sas
ti3
, I
i.n;pov.ta~~t outlet
th;5
wor-b..Corce r l u ~ , i n q
-C!.\t-,
arid s i x t i es.
t i l i 1-rj
strea~~ r:3s i
a X any
i s
.i.ntsv.t7s;:imiaJ. a!igr:tt:icin
frtayacnrn~+) m o s . t l y
try
nw.wrter...;
~i\i.i
3.i
castes ant;
ii
ecrrnrnurll.kie~
ilr,asj;tn). RL??.it
pi3cket :+
sfruth
centr'ai
c;:a?.sl i
<Joseph K.V.
59803.
The! migv-ation
short l i v e d ,
aa
6 s
i n the
wGcG
Tho mf yt'ants7
decades
4ita~!s
must3.y
>10\:173Ci'
g+rt~~-acio af r~ Chri.~L3.*3
khe
ccrmc??rrci a1
ssubcjtar1t.1. a1
c u i ti v 3 t . x - a
i r1v8%t~ncr.r I :
WI~S
r,?f
!?ad
I
i)vdT
past
S U P . P I C ~ S 1:rorn
wiis
commsrc.i.=.f
t&rmms9i.
c-i~tml;tvs, t hsl
i-d!-tli%.fl ;il
I':r-t~
W~n.=.t:
not very
substanti c!i
5 . 2 1ar;
~ e: t c ocSis
Lhesi:, iiec.1
tits
arra if:
ues::
r,~:? pro+as';ianal ai>U acxi ,,t!i>t" b; f 0). ce 'The ;oh upp?sr~tuni tie5 GO:, .>+ ?.r:C?.?. i~ I'ia~13140 t~egunto dwindle d i , ~ - j . i ~ i i
!:at"
sever at; i u 5 ,
Tiice
;,:.\:ei.acje pet:
3. t':
t:ar;.i. L ned
.!'.rumer-,nur?r! .;:?BWZ
to
rest
el
er?G c4 t t t r s SC7'l'if;>
Ecii!wujc.:.
Ftat.nstici+,
~ n yi r a r i a n h i s t o r y
i.*?t32.?.
i I' ,-
.-
was
3.n
k1-9~1:IacI-:grctund i)f
t'a!.>~:!l v
lrl tl:c.
de:icllrting ~ x i c b n s l j
~ r ctp~rjt-runiriea j that.
k h latest ~ phase
(3+
T n e c a n e t a t r a t i o n o S Gu.14: m i g r a n t s
close ties
the co;ls!:~l
oeckds
i3f
the
regicrri have a l w a y 5
ttaci w i t h the
&rab countries..
her-e, i n ~ i d e n t a l L ; ~ i , s a uernarkanle
c o i r r c i d m c e not o n l y i n tlte
rtqlwral .:ant,ettt;~-ai' r U i l bue a;. eo in the pakcern of Gulf niigrati at? t+ t h a t of t i ~ r ear L : b y - C L - )L ~ort-!.lal k ~ an ~ migrat i iat-I. Tha we:rdye
tnw Dui+ ~ t o u n t r i e o , at t h e end of seventies r8s.s 2 s t i 1 1 w . t e bt~ be i i Y ( ~ ~ r ' \ ? d@ , 1 3 0 ( 6 . Tha stock. o i n i y i n t s +rum t:::;erala i i , ~ u 2 . iC . I ) L ? C ? ~ , - ~ E S r d ~ l d l i~ r t ~ . r ~ ) . atso~ ~ ~
mukl
.
net mryrstiot't
i:c~
5.er.i.o~ c r i ~cpdaisadl h o
t ! r e eutimateJ
e s t im&%s
of.
*.;\to I n d i a .f r - o t n 6~11 f 3!'13 nail G u l + c ~ u n t r l e s by k y y w L198Y.1. i=clj!.uwlr?y Sulati anci r'?odk CX98!Si, ha 3~6ufittrd t h a t ;iO p~ cent t f t l i ~ :-etnittences +raurn U ~ 1 .+ i cour~tri es and 5 per cec-ct of Lhat .)r.om no;t GuXi ccsuni.r: t . 1 ~are *rlestin& to K e t ' a j . ~ ~7. . 1 1 ~ resultant &!s1.;~rna.re .fur r e n t i ICani:s? i nt 2 cws ttrto ! f . e v d i a i r t ptrl Capita terms i s pt-c,rsar;t~c)ill Table ;3. Tho! t ' e i l ~ i < : t ~ ~ in6 ( ~ ~ iuw ? irtt.:! the 'State suvyab upwards iron: 1 9 ; : ; 7 6 . It t-end'; to y 1&teal! of.! : 4roi Che oat.7 y e i yhties. 9 s 9 r'atra a+ the dotrescic prrjdu.rt 94, the tegiori (SDI'; %ha ra;r,f ttance irif 1c w was nay1 i qi b 1 u 4.1-t 1970-, 11. In 1973-76 the t-atio v~os 3 . 0 per- ~;uI)L aild rase to a pe3tt at lQ.7 pet- rent in 1980-61, UUP e~jti(~8bke of r e r n i t t a n c c . ~ d o r s n(54 inc'zude the unofficial + i a . F i a w s tmrcrt? carrlb fot'in 35 to S C 3 oev' cert;; & tha o+.r'icial i n t lows depertdiny uport f ac:tors such a?, s r x c i . t a l r 5 e
praeium, etc.
..
t t : : : ~ ~ : : ~ : : e : : ~ r = ~ : : a : = : = : r r : = : = . t = : : ~ = t r = ~ : t ~ : = c ~ : r + ; = r ~ = ~ r : : ~ ~ ~ : : = : ~ t t ~ ~ ~ ~
Ystr
Pw Eir~rta S F
St$ in get a! i
?w Ca~ita i a n e ~ , Flitra
ke~dii
ta
Deposit Per Capita artio 04 Rit i~ Rzsittances R~ritturn &.era\r t o Sff t o India
=z~::z=:=f~~t~~c.ttt=~erO~~::::
ZZS=OLZLX+=-~=ZX=-%:~==Z==SZ-~~
S=ZSL=:'~~~-&~=~Z-I==ZA~=Z~Z=~F-L=C~
i
L \
16
4tS
2-94
$, ?.j
id5 z4j2
lb2b
4-.
LEY P-.C3
4.db
!!ah
I d a
2164
i3.N
li44 23;'~
sa32 3i i b
- -
Z.42
d.tl3
-~
~-~
- -
..----..
-----.--.--.------
Socrre: Ca1 i, liSS ri?ilorts 3s cr,~suwr k,&peadituue, relr-rant ic;ues. Col Ineic Osta Base, H.L.CRnsdh.;i aarf r?e F ~ i i c yGrmg :;5?3). Coi 5. aasic Statistics Cielatinc t~ h o t s A,? l.idra. Fiote: 1.f igures ue st curren? jrice4. :.Per ; a ? ~ t a SSP for A ~ r d l ai s iZa8 ard iQ59 iiro takwt irW ECG~MIC R ~ V L O Y - I ' I ~ ~ . 3,Stnor = Consrlrew E~genditute; S@ -= State iiorestir F?roilu&
;.
cf tlw
iciipsct a . C
>a6 sd f rim riot .ye.c cjs~f, ~!i'triertab;er! 2r1 t h e kbsei-tco of t h o rcqf.t?.red irrput /'output f ~ a n t e w ~ r -and k rai t?v.wr? t 2ai:i.f i CI opts Cor +:he I - e q z r:cc;r l econoilly. Yuwevor , :nicro lavs:L studies !>n migr'at.1on br'ain k.ev*ala
provide
LCrmmet-ce
19'783 kilvinlclran
1rt\p;.c;~-tat?C i rcsi atr.t.5
r ritc
.r t1 .w
1970:
t i r e pass) b l e
macro
eto!l:~nr;. c:
consequences
of
i-emi, t tancr
+ nr
r o g i onal
dove1op!itsn'i
Mathew
E8T.
and
hair,
e . +38 G .
Fzt-dka8h R.A.
.!.f7&; Fi'adhdrkri~hilar!C
G.n.
are
i9273,
ti169
A+tut-
all, ttte
taker)
u t i l i s a t z c c ~0.t:
remr ttonces
d ~ m a ~ t imot-iey c r e s o u r c e counterpart
try
the
~ I I
i ndi v i d ~ i a l 1 y
.tl~et-d at-e CWO
m i grant
4af11i1 i es
b0t.W
i i l
themcelve~.
But
caveate that t ~ a v e to b e
trind.
Fit- at1 .\#,
merely a saw tig cleci s I
t rr k
O:IS
chawu
l eve1
tile
;
be
sirwrnat.i~?;~ s.?
r r ~ - ~ . r.uurtd ,t,
i r n u x t : o+
I-
Sr~t+tiUa.iig 13t.
r e . I
Equal i .\=
import&;-1-t 3t.u
~cli:.~~s4ji, 32 r 3 ~ 1 r t b S GI ;
. r e i
d v
i
rlr
f cum
r e m i tCarice i n 9 l ~w
*
ctat
gi v e f i
dnd
ciear I
Lhs
strCr~i9
; o L lec?.~. va
i;rar'.~a:; 91.!>LJ
!I
t t
uni ver'~e.j.
or.~ctlce c?f g ; 4 L s
kir?.
y i v s I?~s/ller I q i t l i and
~ L I
a b ~ r s s n i n gc ~ ft t ~ s illcorns d i s + , r i S r r L i . ~ s ttit ~ chc? s t a t e . f i r e L.arar~t'? v a t i c ) US C P ~ S C W I ~ expsnciltur.e WIS v.i:-tun1.i:; t h s same 5.17 bo'kh 1973--74 and 1986.-87 at
@.38'5
~ n d db.21Cb7 rcsyect;voly.
T h e + a c t khaC
GcrlC
m l yl-arr ta heltlngucj
eav+?i! I +
be taken
w i ta caution.
p a r t 1 y clue
'The
~ t n d e r e s tmated i
t o d e l r ber a t e
t - ~ s p ~ r , d W l t uope
31..\k:.
ktj
t!-ie
i;.ncwJecjq&
i
01-
t h e 5avinQf.i
3irecLiy
w
i
dugl2sl.frst.i
ear'
p ~ r . ; > ~ r ~ , = ? ti l y
I
t k81 ~ t.
t
Corrseqt\ar;t:'i.!/
gro;J~cisitry ta
{ . t t e
!:O11Si.:.71d
r
aut:
- reniitltanr:e inciimca.
Furtt~et-,
.. .
r ei
5
tu
C?i.vu.I.j'-'. i n +ormati on
regardins
financial. s+.vj.rfgs
@xi.~~tqer"aCe the
r t 1 : , : 1
prcpdrtia;1 o i
p r . ~ d ~ tic vk e assets.
(:).I-'
SliCti
;a p u s s i a i l . l t y
i.lndep-~tat.inCJ przJ~\ctiv..in a
u L i ) . i s a t ~ o n uf esset.5
is i r ? d i c $ . t e r i
lar'gc survey
0.6
ut- Gult
prior t c
cstcrt-net?~ u ~ h i c hr e v e a l s kitat
h e , Ij
!-!:i qi.);:jye
;
it
-hi.-r.eni
17iiqrant: rb?:tur.naec
l~ w s is
i!;.!::
CPT
errjoyed irnpl-avamsnt
iili
ir\
'3
R G, X07Si151 .l,l
t:hs
,
j, n~zaifii; f
cwnsi eten.;;
~ ) . t )-!r.kp,:..~dg~t. i ve
r i ~ l3teal:i. i 0 %
ti 1 i sat;iijri
i-o~-$.~-<.&CQ
.-cJ~.I-
j.,~;.
cc.u
1
ats*
nut
ds.;.f~c.f
d'cr'
?-3::.ioij
,:j+
ar
a.vet-rigs
pr-opensity
~::i-$n<;I,:..it& .C':-I.~
~.C"I,~~~MTIC in Mc t m g 9
t h e . ~rr~tversc;;l
~ ~ J ~ I c , L u s L t.~:si:?\r>d ~ ~ ~
pe~~g;.j~~-.-\$.;\~-;
c,i~a.sr.a!.~-ti a1
i m r t . o ~ e m ~ . ' : t i~
c!-,r~.;ulrip.Lr on
2
iF v ~ X s
C
, :
1 .
nil q. hi.:.t
Cur most a 6
the
a+
di..C?.~o J:..c~if
r.:fl;+t.i\j~~jy pc,mrer s t r a t a
the
.Firc,.t
VlaS.
~i>i;i +l; y
I mg:T ~3i/;?ic;i+flk i ; I
ccr:-:sL\mvt i an
~i s l B i e e ~ b ) ~ ~ i ) r ~c ! i l n : ! > ~ i t c i inlgcation.
-. .J .
the
t.7-.st?ds., L ( i
;)er < c c ~ I ~ s L ~ ~ ~ a>:?an;fi >P?~.o~ ture ~ given 313 TaiaIc? -. I he peiV-cau;. 5 4 .;~or\~~!niel;e:.:p;+t?diCi.tr-e i n t:::oral a was lower than
f i l J. t:'-:a Gar 1 y
~ ~ ( e , > ; c t i . ~Since 9~.
1 rb
.. 2.:4ip:~.:a
t1at.d air
t h e ~tai:ioni:..lavtwsue
P ei at i v e
c:onsLtmet-
tt~chti15
i rnpvavsd
sxppend i tuue
? 3
1 eve1
F:.erala
has
~.-as di i y
i s? seen
SL gill i S ~ i j . r y ~tl
th4
natj aria!
ySa,"a
. I 6:
t:t;c.
G~a.1t
L!;
I
ti72
! .
:!a\*..:i iab7.+.
A
I he
i i
I.
snk c>,.tiei
:.'.oral n afr~cini)
n . joi. ~ 619:-e5
:Q
iii
);.t:'~.-,&pi id
L;:ven moi-ii
LO seei:
+ * - Q ~ : rdbre!
~ A G Q
dlliT
kd.3
1;ew:~d LO
: ; ' ,
P I i g ~ a r r o i r vof!ictl
c a u b ~ 4tem&rk.;.htlk
lie;;,;,iis 1 : d iar=tvQ
il.~crciac-e i n per.
e . F fectstl
c~~p1.2.:~
ai r;a
crrrt?
s i yclt f r ciinr
cl.tangt,s i 4-1 t h e c a n p o s i r i c 3 1 1 oi
CO~LSUII~~~J. TC hA e ~ t001-! .
baskel;. 2f
the
state
;la%
b+icn
t~-anoC~r-rnwi?t-sc,r
Ii
1 ka
durniratea
arid
by
ilhei:p
car u o h v d r a l e
c a s t 1 i er.
sui;ir!:i tuten
tapioca
i elpar t ed
relatively
,:9rrsi
~
cica&&t i
. ( irin
lo
nrre pra.jocrilnantly
veyetat 1 es
c)t i
!.99(lrJ
and pr uceesed
;'he shst e
oi.
IIL-J~.-.+
rut-al are&.; ancl ct-a;c\ 29 p a . ct.trt to 41 psr CkrlL L i t icvban ~?,-t?aa c + ; Eercal& s6t weer) 1367 ant.! 1YG5, ihs sfhac-&a oF ccsnsurnption c.6
d u c . a b l s g u u i ! ~ ;B h . W
k ; ~ ~ - d l~qarctsl: a ali
I .T i 3 3 3
a n : . $ : S A Y pet-
rl.dr\t
it?
;:-~*r-&l
+ill l r r o l a u.+t.rcga
of 2 . 3
05
n o t e 6 i r , t h i s ccntes-i. J b
cat?ulrmer e x pendl Lure i t r
h a s esparrded +rctn
It:+
$cud dupeclclency
uS
BLICI~
tt~k state
grdxrt
i~rroor ta
ta
'Fhc
eavel-!
tt+,xd
as
ticeat,
egg,
f r u t t atold
arb3
vegetables.
i r n i ) ~ ~t '
a 4.
n l SQ
i IICI-eased +rom 7 I a ~ 1 1
8 t'uL d
tu~?rte-; bslwi.;ar,
CPhcnnas f sitac
'13..
iclg!,*r-,t
: J 1
ki<~V.~.-'~zLJ:.i,
Ys s
I.r.t'.~e-l I.d.~er.
era
J
r::iij:.z>
1 - t ~
.LPIG
X Q ~ ~ ; X I = . G ~ ! C ? C , C :+f _~
t n i s a m p w r t leakaqs
a r ~
UL:L.
P.?+'arc1:P:ei. let.
!i
3::
a;<:?n.i..rs the
.t .~. ~ i . % 1nc.r e
i
6 2: i
avalJanle evidence
! ' . ; ? W are E tM
reli&ble
u;
f - l ~ ~ . ' .
ci)wt C ~ I T04
I
r.~,i.~.:~;t.~-:..I.
ii
i. ii~)i T .3 ~
111
6 d ~ j .t,i t 'E?
L ~ I C ~ G i ~n S ; i~ hr
1 -'i.f 1 i.cq
04.
=I-.e
c.3nnequent !rpQr!
1 .5
t : - e iecc?n:i t, a!.
A! ? .-.Ii?di
).;ii.~r
ai
aad D ~ b t ail,:!
1r
ei
.a
asset5
0-i
I . .
izs.
; ' 7 , 4 : : 9
c ompnret.: ic,
"ei
RK,
a r dar impr.bidaJ
7rte ~ s c o i i r j
2cr.t
0.6
9~1c~i';t;a r
biat~ to ~
.L;I
.;:tlf
.tr-~~'r?d it3
psi
i=dp.ita
Table 4s.
'Th* .:.;
rapi t
barit: ciegvsi t c;
:,
c t a t ~ o n a la v n ~ a~ja tzj . l
fiid s - ~ v e n t l e s .
E ~ c twl.::t-;
\:he 0nGr':r:
GuiS:
c t ~ i
que..t,i or?,
ti.161p
~t j . .~ ~jn ;)i i
!.::BY r.il
a i nrprt?vrd
L ~ I
relatitr?
to the rrat,~ or:al average h h i t h &-)a6 0.7'2 i t i 1?7(a-71 becgn~o:. yt-eater tharr ~ c 1 2 1 ' t y i t i - 1 ~ 3y z . ~ : !.977.-78 ~ &nd plateaus o+t
+%
R
;it
-.cn
Section 3
Phases af Growth
above
has
rint beer\
c'ki anrwl i. s i . ng t h e
6 2 .::Vrii?
crtiut?ds,nca
GI-
state.
ii:
I %
seer)
that; t h s ewteflsisn
uf deposits.
.r-ir.ifi;
'T:?r! i-!-edi
r 6 ~ to i
+or the
e t h t e 1 5 not
cnl?
2 r ~ w o r than
aver
the ~-~.;;ii;jhboUrlF'i)u
vq ~ i l d t s s
ii,
: . 3 u I .
hds a 1 . m
been daclirij n g
!:'~ar.-~l, i Y Y 2 1.
. tr m e 1:Uov~r.rtfnefit nf K a v - a :
S t a k e 11'1 anni ng
if.'lus.tratzv;je
EIXBC-C~SC
u s sng
ij?'
some
uf
reg1on&l b a i :ai~Ct?
CJd>!:ibX!V.S
the
k:i.?y q s r *a51 ~ es
i I?
many
Daspice
9 s
1 i m~ .Lett1OI.!,~,
a<
tt.16
bt-i~ad dS ntc?n%r ~
f r L>C
s.,zc;;ti at la1
6x5;-tomic real. . i .t y
and
5~fiic
3 . di ~ i.lg-$--\3u.t +-I>;?-w?,
I n ol.dt?r
,:(,tat
tthe
h e
CIA
A
ti?@ net
of:
I. i
<.*pi t a i
~ C C C ~ U ~ i~ Ia ~s S ta
equal.
oil
balance 0.l: +: -:
aoe.
i:t>e assiirrtption
ti.-et. t h e
net pzymerct
d\l=cnt.tzt
e;z,tevnal. 1 y awnisci
a s s e t e ancl o t : . ~ a r ; .
j
a r t turr ent
&re
+ b:l..L awa
(X
n!
-b
FR + IR
PL + OL
(1)
?:c r*,r.;
iI
I.
, c c t 8 - , ~ e s ,-but
i - e ~ tot
lnclrn, FR
+ST
~ ~ . G I *;rrr:lg,-r E
r
;:it+-.
il1-d~::
thrj
s rm i
i rr i'abl e
I
!.s..t..,i r t :
PU:'!. : .; xr-our~ t
&.
;;+.
.
i
~ a pt i bl
ascount arid
OL 4c-i-
?i-13 o.j!:i!r~dtt?Q +
r w n t ttancbi
# : :
JI I
in:-t 2:.
t
t.j
; .
5:16
, I t
i? 1
.i !
it
ict:I>&.,
c a1 i . ~ at~ iGI i I.
;I162
L c : . rro l t t r 2
;I-IBQ
i l i l t
ellti ru
6%
&Qbc'*
.t 5 -
g*~pki.*i L -v knc.*~.?,
a=
t i
(jaynte~ct d t
*?Ac;T~%~
I;F.L~+ I G
e~uo~rit! is ~
; f t
concerned.
o
t"
5i\11t~tl~df? p t
the RO~,~[?BY
r t e t . i , i d c i r . + : i ~ l t Cc, the .f i n a ~ t c i a li l ~ S
to tlta $?.ate. It
?st'
~ f i i - tu
ii: a s e ~ . ~ s e r that l
atrtut-
f ' ~ ) k - QI'I bi
2 ; a t r ctns+errsii;~! t r a m
atiites v l n
i
I
nuney
'
channsi 5 .
set
; lfi
k;.
CiL
4.
UL
(1)
(sj
I.'[,
-7'. . +
AH =. I-'!.
i
t
+ QL
v i a r
+:
(4)
Ma do f i d L
vf
l
a
i t
r u t
I
1
c
i
t
t
I
~1
.
:t
6I
c>+ f s i, i dl. 1I
i1 u
r .vate
2 -
'il\d. 1)9f
; ; r
PCL~UI-e!.
e ; ~ : ~~ l ? r ~ + . i t l'ibiie Le.-,n
?.c.raLa. T h e
oi' I f4 dr.tl I:;!.
An .:
F I ~ C I I 'L a r : t
the ao0.e
4unJs
+~-otrl
c : ;cu.~.;idtr ~ is
k i i ~ tt h e r . 9 ;.r~;;
z, src)ni+icant autfl@w0 6
T!is
94
cr~arus.
payments
s l e v a r ~ t i. r yur
crs I r?
$ : t e
balancu o+
idaqtity, w e g e t !he i c l i a w i t - ~ c j ;
T'lle
1
:tjr,
.I.
ye,
. ,! .-
--
G'I..
a~
(2:
i ii
t . ,
+ r~jn,
.
51.)
on?? r-ctspect.
. d + ~ ! l .h;v? u i
I !
,
C,r.ctrle caf i c I
..
.
!
to
is o++set
If;
i t ic :
~ ) c ~ b t t(? b :that.
the,-e must
+ r u n # rest.
o+ i n d i cr
I
J fi
l-3:!5
-7k.
cia!. f 1 r ~ ,
undouhti;.j l y ,
1Y89--B1.
V?Z
t ~.;uu.i d i se
r - 7 t l t f !OW
~ n l a 1 .or* l i 11 scope
3
thais lo1
. that
! . J-
rnpor-tan+, corlc!.
uo,; orr,
5!1u
Pc! tween
1 975.-7?3itad
1 Qt\a..-'Jl
t h e r e was A
si uni r cant
rttaliye
K h i ie
the
in
i n 1375.-'76
cask?.
1h
t4c.s
I
L if iJ
C;r,r.
ir
r e v e r s e was
the
t h ~ t th e
interregion3.I r43lai:icjrc~
o i ec~rlomic
i r!
are
110t
f ac.Lot .r- ..
1est7
shi + t 6
- a
t~nilarstancirtg the
rn0iurr~11d c ~ ' ~ r i u p a u ! - * i .
bfiv~. r.r!r>i ~ r t a l t t - i . d e
accv1.tnr.s 4ote
f fir,
&I\)'
Id83
tt~e
s u r v e y s ~t taab:,
Fegi csrc
' 5 ix t
ml-csik
t\?
sw+eiy
%&id
ti'lkt
(Ihti.
~crir~urt S L I . . T ' ~ ~ C I S ~f
1 3 i + @ i - i!;.ll.'i n~
. i$ 5 .
protjaLi. :J .::nc.)r r;
4
-
a!:port surp 1 us
j. n4et-ence
on trade
accc~rn t d ~ i r i ~ : i the .j
by
t h
t i .
The J. i i c t e t 0.6
:i. r rein9crrced
data ~
Crr~
Lirlar1r:e
rrclvanct.re
dur?ng
the
prQ
inrJepc~f?cltrnc~~ per~c:id.
Tr-avancore
ha;.i
signi f r cant
t r d ~ s u r p l I.iS
.ir;r filu~t0.f
t h e c~l.:',fii-rl ; i s r i g . : d w
:i a a
I?:
ifialy
;n
Chi*
d.? ways
en jovoJ
h siijiir
k scr pl u ! ;
I
eVt~iii
i r ~ L;; i
!-I
;.I>=> p9s.i:.
s nciu+!~~:Gcr.tce p
ij
+ican;.
Ga r e
7 RE. t r a : k
i E S ~ Q ~ ; L c:, t h 3
i . n t e i - reaional kt-ade,
i r i ' c e f f eqj ORWI tr'ade
t.l-,cr- w e i grct c . r
in
the
r
f i
.
t
tru:tae wa"
L
2tfiL'
s;grt~.i.ic.?.~.,xIy 1 ~ w e r
h + ; ~ d ' ~ i':'.;?2
in
th*
sarliev
years
Aria
* i
A~+Gv;,~~';~cJ~~.vIs
hava
f
p
i :
t h e p:.r,..sir t # i l it?, o ! .
i;
e!xpurt: sur.p.lus
the
*?fit
P ie-- yc-a,"%,
Ljuvuur 9 ,
It!r-uuc;haut
~ i t Ll J L T I & ~ L'ICJ
F a i l
t r a f t ic a 2 . r
I:e,ra!
;.
a
t:.x~+~.A+c1t h e
te~-minati~lc
1'3.323
<:u~rntcr:-pai*t. *3C
tki
t
of
~-$SUL~)..C=
O J ~ ot
thr~:qh
.;:r'dd~i. titUSc
V I ~ V Z t183eK
!CQ~:II tt
Fa-
d~tk r f l r j t!l i
i r
(10
h
c
e a6
e
v
tth./iLlUS IPQhi;Ott:+
C~.C(II
r e
.0
%ti
fo
ll~bi~n evidencev g
sc.c~gcstsucre
and half - : * i nclepi:ncterrce a per i sd rs F r a p ?ii wt. l;hjrs+uai. of Europc:an (:&pi t.;i. t r'0tt1 t h e V J bin'kirtl[?,t,s ..~!.,LI . ;rig5 t r a u l s oc?rturs oC P;erai~ whit!:
ciu.ti Z OW.
the . r l r f - , z a i decade
the.,. had
irair~l ?.&Led
. . ; l . ; r7 r q i;he ;,;i.~:i c , t ~ ia i
p ~ r .ad ! :,nrf
ii
ti
Cram industrf
di
S . * C T ~ ~ ~like 'Y
csii'. weaving.
wd*i
* :
F;sc:,c-arlilv
cr
, clrae
~ ~ ~ t f l flows e ~ i t 4t-mt
CJCt'.,'C?o);'~~iiidrt~
i \
~ t -v i y ~ ~Q I W C ? ~f -ay
)-eqla~ dut.1i)tj
the
L t t r S p + r i ~ r j~
compar :.r.c-;it . , : ;
iat;r.t- yec4i-S
as wci.11 aq
shrc-f?
rt.fas.ved bv
Otttz-r
~ ' 9 c j ~ 0 f 1i 8t ~ 1%
~ u e ~ x p .F 1 i. s~~ J R Y t h e relatively
CY;_)~U d~ ~,t . 8 - 1 9 ~
+jrijt tw fzv*
piarts
a,':d
oC
1 he
it-t'-testfi~ent
O~t"ii!g
Cc?iiift\.i'~s;l.r~~t~ aL*scj p a i d
a t : : . e ! ~ ~ . i ~ rtj .r.;~
i,.tsi. r,rnl!-
tile
Qf\.
Th6:
r uvcn(,lc.s. Lo t h e p r i n i s l y
a.t.a,Lar; i;'i
CGRP@;t'.iit@&
Travaticcrr-e
aoci
';oc:rl,r!
we5
& ! . a 9
not
aciequately
India11
'f'hzrdly, it
!.~t)&lld appeirr
ti.~aL private
ti+
lnilia
<a the
region
al*:~~
cc~spat-@a to
tttc two
'!'he .
r f c
i.4.
9.r:~
J :
r'+'.;
at:b vp; y
i n\,-,~~~:nep? 1: 6, y e q i bi?al ~ c ~ r ) ~ . a +
~.c ~ i L \,.&?I L
t t l ~
thp
t s I 'ih!:: p t 7 r . i ~ c i . f :<er': f a 5 . l ~ 43
.;Js"sL!UCC
.
T('\t:! eatre
yruw.?.tl c>+
PC;,- c9n2:
&.i.
s t a t ? LJ0rft@-991:1E.
?
I ? 1
~~el-j.c'j
a;\)? 5.37
. i nf'lnirre
0.F
:nni a
growth
hlr 1 s r p e greed
rii
pe:-
~4i.11:.
!.-atsa 04:
I
- i r t e sec~ri?dat-:r.
f a i l e d tij
!i:ltiui?s.X
Keb-ala
j
i i l ~ t ? r-t&tii7tti*l
ecanamy
the
itnmoc$iat.i?
r nclepsi.~dancep e r i C
J ~ .
reqi oretai
F;$
GC
arrclni : ,
yruw+;h
df.citr:
bt-.csi-?c!
6 7 . 5a
:li\i+
--
t n e subseqi!urir-, ph&scs
-..
n&;rtianar picite?-r.,.
arcuunt .lar
'f bus,
f ~:ir. s?:a%pIe, w n i
lt+!
f ond~rii.:ii? c r o ~ 1 5aL.:?irc:.
i1.i
i;l<,~& than
7 : ' ;pi+r c - e n t a+
CP.(SP.S
.?.fir.yt-csas c r o p p e d a r e a
? . ~ t ~ i f - t c i i nt qh e .=ercals
ar-oclnd 45 per-
I.
t t r s ~ i ? i 3 ~ (.:~~..axiil.cl L
ard
set-cbal
scctrsi.,S i i;r,r.L~*+
woul n
.
c.-)m+ t.u
0 1 7 i !/
gross
chat.
CI.~J~Q~Tt !
CI-up:: wso
a.
3.
per-i.ilni a i
C n e m!.trit
crlf,rxc'tant
Give!) t
was
et-essure a!?d
?
the
b i l i. t \r wS'
of
U ~ I P t~ r .S 3c t e d
i ntpur-t
rapid
of faad
.:~VC)UC~!;.~.Q !THY'!,o.>
t r a d ~ :there
as
~~Xpansicrn a+ comfii=lrcicil
i;;r.ups
Ttwsa
irlko
t ~ a s t e lands
we1 1
CP. G , K.
CUI. ti v e l t s c i
1 . 4 . 1 . 1 ~ ta
br'oad
1
t r and%
CTO~E;
.,
15'783.
i n the
.A
c r o p p i ng
breaK
wi tt?
t h e col unl al pa.t.te!.-n w a s khat , du.e regi atial. .Faad .%el .F 5 1 . ;Ff. i cf ~i'tw i n the
gross c r aGpsd are& cirrder
padd,.
;:YJ
.til~ 6~rnptlasi s
to
gi\#un
ti w e
bagarc t t : e
I ?
i ncreitse, t-eversi nq
~ b ~ i ; r ~ a bd lu r ? ing
the
ti162
e a r l .ier
trsixl
j.n
kt>@ r.uL)~.trt;~un i
i i r s t !":dl? u+'
t i
t.3:.
f..rrltdr~.But
;:.I>&;
-*
ihe a? ea nl'qdur
commerrial c r a p i
211
t 4 9l d;. >. SO
l aL;-.r_ct- ' s s h a r e
A ,
is*?.
~ crc L
crrpi; hhvi
i i;i>g
W
~&s,::;:t~t)r~
tycit?
rweti
r)wk be
dcd,nz!?ated the
5 iii.I, 1. -2.-
.V
.
i
:;ha
t - e t 3 i isrniil
II
ii
S C C ~ Q ~ has
it1 ; a
W I I ~ I I P O ! I I P B I - Y ~t
I
1.h~
ir:l3
iI
1a r g e i
j 8
1
j f.t
per5trd
, d<-.r?tei
!
C L ? ~I '
t
.
ijttil
tt.~~-.
~ r . m t r ~ e ? . c i a I i ~ ~ t i procerc on
ci?fi~~?kri,;i a1 crops ter.tdin
in
r
r
?
. 1-IC. oncti ,
L
I
"t v a r i c,ii+
:
fucli as
L ; ; -
ee
I
elementar J
agra
baseti
baF;.te
:c .:
,'J?IJic'
I
Non
ti-tr.
i
2I
I
1E
!)ctt.ablrl
v ~
I~IP~-+A
tnpcir
I
ti~;!!:e A I-i
e . 3i ~ y
t
decade6 a+
the
.
and
a,. n
-4
C~~E~IIS
c'ai
I
hiici
t ae tor I ea a1 s t .
,aiiw
dv
Ln
T ~ a v ~ r ~ c orlilri!lq rt?
c P : ~ P I 1r t i e
i
F IJ~-i. i.t*?i.
I-?owever-
their
1n
pr-eoence the
c.rcis
t . 5 ,
f i i : . ~ .a n y
s i ?;?if, #:an;
k+d
ctrarrge
G V ~ I - & i~
C ~ ~ . - ? ~ ) C .! ; C .. QC L
ayt-an!--ocessing rrldustr t e : .
i t a r ~ d i r r le
s / p c . -.t.
O;
dr.:(w orrly
l ~ . r ~ r ~ t & ~ - jt i t i ~ ~ t ' i u ? . i
+run! tho
.;)i\bst.itution % L i i t - < y
a+ p l arlneri
dctbel uVi{tk?i iZ
~?,riop L;tci
; : . t the
r ~ aitanal
1evel
Or1
tg-fe
The azber;:~
pub1A
the
r nancial constr i t i i l t ~
regional
wcial
ar'td
the
scatti:
t3.i l u r e of
p o l 1 t i cai
i
pr'cssur E!
gr-u~tps
ii>
ensur i nq
a t
t-crauli
in
t f ? e I ndustrrj. *?.I.
gr..owtzl
wilbin c ~ f l ~ p a r s d u
t i
or eceadi ng
->wc;
dccalus,
lCJOi.
o
partic1~ at-1 1 v
in
t V ~ o saut:17er.1? W:~ral zt
~r:j"Ld;?ile 'Tt-averxtre
i'elativel y slu!.~$?i
; i
I r ~ J u c tdec! i n e . ; .
Fitt";l'~et", wi t k i i t ' l
~,,i.ut;>.e% 1
~ e t ' t a rsha.2.-??
13-r
31te
f i f t i s s and
ee\rZia
'nti tpt
b8
c ( ~ a r d ~ . t ; e t " i s e aa u
! .Qw
b i i ; k ~ d ~ d acanuiny
iO W
COnSLlmp 21 i1i.l
lndi a H 3 F P r i a e r y Secondary f z r t l a t - y
---..."I"--.L---C-"------..----.------.-"-.-----..----..11
---
l-------L---
--------.---.---
!?JO-S 1 'to
IqbI-bS
3.91
2.73
5.93
5.0.3
3.37
2.66
3.83
4.7;.
1975-76 t o 1988-89
4.49
2.54
5.29
6.Ll
2-39 -G. J2
S.78
. . . . a -
4.42
L . -
-C-.-----.--."---LI,-"---------L----------l..l--.-"-
--..-----..---..----------
- -.
Source1
K e r a l a SDF g r o a t h r a t e For ,1950-51 t o 1964-&5 cdlcu!atz!d fr9.q ?;lie d a t a p r o v i d e d D~ D e p a r t ~ e n to f Economics =r:cl Statistics, GGS: Fcl. the o t h e r s dL Ckandak and P o l i c y Group 11390) and E z a ~ o n l cS c f v ? v
1992.
around mid-six1:ias.
national ecatromy..
S t i E, c e r t a i n l y a c o n t r a s t @CJ t h e esperieric:? t'-:c+l..ala i.s one e-f: ti?& +@IN r3gioncs irk 1nci:in t.l-tkt':-
war:
I m m u n e to
t h o inaian
t~ :j.45
per
economy f rm ti?+
mid-'slxti~g.
t h e growth of stst??
cent per znnu~fi dclrirty 19h4-t5 ta ICi'?";rF-i'SQ e r l c d whl le t h e n a t ~ o n a l income g r u ~ t h rate decl bnes Lo 3 . 8 per cent: p e r arincttrc.
don~ekiti c prodctct
Uerai trc
T..e
chonrantuin
rar;iurlai
sgt-icui tilr a1
r t w
g r z w t h iargel y
'I'twre
VJLS
maintained
the
czvsri l n t h e
phase,
si yrti f i c a n t e n p r n s i o ; ~
The 1nc7 ease
a.6 qv.oss i;T.appaa at-en i!t the s t a t e i'rocr: 234s khourpatrd hectares E D
SV)L% thousand ti9riares betr.taen 1968-61
J.~I
and 1974-73.
tt-errd of
t h cropptnq ~
irttensi t
y and
cet
t o 31-
expansion
oi: gt-oscj
~ r o p p e darea.
and cereals t.i, expclnd, b u t + a s t e r r a t e ? ccrnt.inued LCJ p e r s i s t in the CSivanandao P.K. lYb43
commercial crops
t h e former
at
new' phase
a1.s~.
ntc;t-e.? r e m a r katl e
ptrenooenorr
that war
sharp1y divsrqent
+con the
rtalll~!lai ' e x p e r i e i l c e ,
was the
rcgi~~al 1nnustr~iaL p r o d u c t i o n f r o m
p r anted auc
b : l ) n i + i c a ~ ? ly i to tire Sncfuz,tc-ial
'Llt"te walq17tage
cratrcroa1
I,:.. f<. and
;i-I
KeraXa
may
exp5.r 3 r n c e
be
P.
i L ~ 8 %Further, .
twro more p a i n t s
induckrial s e c t w s were o p e n e d upNew t-ero~rrcebased fjt-aauci: groups like rubbet-, ar?d paper proaucts grew i n t o p r o m i n e n c e .
pub1 I C i n v e s t m e ~ ~ and t a number of new
sixtzes,
up o f - the
phase
also ane
of
si~);rificant step
of
investment
Tllo
dit.ect
c e n t r a l investment
in
in the central public: sector rcse to 3 . 2 4 per cent ~ r i ri7e total b y 19i'S. The per capita stair- p i an oxpenditur-e wh-rch Mas below t h e a l l fnaicr civer age d ~ \ irn g tlre f i r s f : .two p l sn t e r i ads exceeded the 1a t t e r if; the t h ~ r i l ana ffr'jut.kh ptarl purioda. f w e noted, i n f e r i n g + i C r i r i thr? b a l d n c ~ 04 payman-L.9 pusi t : ~ u ~ o-F ? Kernla i n i97S - 7 6 , rlre pr-eceacling year.{; r f i t r ~ t have taec? at?@ wi t h net in+'low I nvesti lil a
Kerala
iiler eased and
reyiorls share
funds
iiltc,
t h e regiuii.
Stranatign-,si
nce M i d-qpventi es
ratiterg s h o t - t l i v e d .
t o 1988-89
AS
r a w
ff-on
r r w n d tniil-.'severrtie?s.
only
the previous
T h e r a t e o f 01-crwth of SDP
durlny 197533-76.
in
as w e 1 I. as t h e n a t i c n a l incorns growth ki).ictt i w s r a ~ ~ c '$.4? j per c e n t pat- ailnuin during the sam2 period. I'he aeclitie i s e v i d e v t b e t ! ) i n the p r i m a r y and secondary settor9 o f the e c o n ~ m y . There ~ a an r a b s o l u t e decline i n production a+ most c.~f t h e sgricut turd1 crops and output oi' tne traditional it-~dustries:. The per caai ta output o+ agtrcul t w e , other p r i m a r y act~vities etid industry decl rned + r a m Rs. 385 it-I 1970-71 to Hs.94H i n 19OV)--Ci7. Qn1v i n the t e r t i a r y sectors d i d there occcrrad dn a c c e l e l - a t i ~ f i i n the grnwt)? pa~-tic~\iat-i%: C ~ s t r u ~ ~ L and o n ~ O c l serv'ces. ~ i nrrspite t h e acceler-atf oil i i l t h e qrowth of the service sec10r, the per capita o u t v ~ ~ 1 t7 a . j virtually stagrrated during tile OulF boon decade 4rom 1975-?h 923 1905- 86. Evidently, given t h e autf low of f ~rnds and i t n p a v t leakages, which w e have discus~ed earlier, the tmpact o t remittances on domestic emplovasnt and output i n t h e reqian ha5 been m i n i m a l .
phase of.
In
2870 t;housa~?d
S o C c ; r clecl ir,e Ln
iISt
a , in the new phase t h e e:;pansi a r r 0.c: t i l t ? commercial crops was at thc expense of tho f crod crops. The, 1 a t i e 1 - s share i n the gr&s cropped area declined fro?n 4 1 per cent i n 1476-73 to 31 per ceni: in 1986-dl. W i t h i n t h e con~mc-rcial c r o p s the area under cocanrit .and at-ecanuk dec'i i n & m i l d l y w t l i l r there was a phenomertrl expansion cif area under r.ubber.. The ekpansion o+ coconuts into t h e paddy lands has rrot i!een sufficient to compenoate f a r ?.he
Sornters loss to rubber.
The nat sawn u r e a under paddy dac1rfic;ci as
much as
by
20
per c a n t ,
19913
pat-t-
of which
tias
gone
+alLcw.
LNarayana, D. et.al.
industries on which elre rc&cional i r l d ~ t s t r%I i recarvsry trd5 v i d l ng t;avn y e t to aci.'e their presence -f el ;r: in k e t a a l a nlcrsrnwf?i i e t r - a d i t i a n a l resource based, sxpor t 0t.iantsd A i : d c i s t r i e s 1 ik s war-irte praaucts, cmrr.,
sulrise
t h e rtcw
cashew.
due
wcjcjd,
ceraml c e t c
t o constr.iiir\ts
c a n the s~.lfipj.y
sactar ragqed behirrc! .s!::par.:tat.ion.s artd there has been si gni f i c a r d d s c e l or a t i un i rr I'ieM pub1 i c srrc tor invcpstmetrt
Wliv the
p1entriFu.1
savings
iJjd tiot
flow
into
producicive
in t h e reqlocr ic the central quastirsf? a+ ttte ccmtemparary development c r i s i s i n Eerala. Gn answer would reqic.ire examination of historical l v
g r o w i n g consumption requirements a+
?he peaple
c v o l ved
stractures
of
r s g i orwtl underdevti.1opment
problems
r.F
resour-ce dopl &?ti on and e n v i ranmsntal d&qr.adation, inappropriatrr development policies, centre-state r . e l a t i o n e , and so on o task beyond the scope nf our present paper. A 1 l t h a t w e shall do .Cctl-thur i n t h i s dirertiori is t:o draw attention to the direct
the ~ J ~ T V E P S ~
e f f e c t 5 of which
may b s argued
r o have reinfarced
t n e tendency
tnaqrarlt:
l a an a=pect
j.ri
c f which a i i
micro I e v e l studies a r e
in acjreafienr:,
above two v a r y ,
p r o p o r t i o n of
a l l s t ~ t d l e at h e y account for
the
pr-epzjnderanlr
t h e migrant: hucrsettalds'
irrcorrre a t t e r nrcwLing
kha
c u r r e n t consumpti an espendi 'cure. The tt~arked d i # farence betheen t h e mi grant and non mi g r a n t hausuhul d s w i t h respec.t; to h8~tsX nq c c ~ n d a t i a n s , l a n d and y u l d acquisitiun haa b e c n well a a c ~ t ~ ~ a n t e d . The above esset pr'eiersnce 14hic!?. tras b e e n wi d e l y d e c v i t?~1 ~ h i ) ~ l bd e ~ r n d e r s ~ u airl d a betltei- pet-spectiva,. Fcjr. a ntaja!-i.ty of t h e , migrants, who anr;r;d 1 %ma%1 p a r c e l a uf l arid pt-i av. to m i st-ati oft CPrakastt, a , acqt.ti s i t:ic;n r,.f a mediu,r~ g i z e d h u hd plot and c~ ~ ; ) i 3 ~ i td i ~ i r ~ b ~t a 25 a i a d d ~ i -to gaz n S U C ~ A ~ reopectsbi S j. t y c'arn~r;nw..irater;i t h t h e : r e;7hartcsd b r!camct. The r m n ' f i nanri al asssts J i4s l a n d , Gui f d l ng and j e w e l 1e r y w i t h p u s s i h i l i t i ~ s i of s l g n j f kcant can1 t:al gains was a l s o rational ct'lai c e gi-l,lan theiti r i i i tcr3 Z rtaitcj a l r asaur.ces and en t . ~ ~ p i . - & iI> al ~ ~ l t.ai. r ents & h icti were uf t s n 1rtsuf F i c i e n t : +or actcceasf ul re1.F empi u>rt,tei?t vcritures;. f'her..:+ is nc- dcjrrbk ,~l;l.rat tile E j ~ ~ l fi n L g t - a k ~ . ~ r rlc ? r l t ~ . i b u t . e d aipnificantly ta a cunotructr~rjn bzom i n Kerai a. A v e ~ a g r - nun19ar ~ i :?to~:si ng p l anr, sancti csned ar?nually in KeraLa duubldd between 1775 and XVSB. The! s;cpansian a i t h e c o n s . t r u c t i o n sector' 1 5 alsa r e s fl e c t e c i i n "c-ta r a p i d expansion of irlcsrr~e a r i q i n . a t z n g f r o m t h i s s e c t o r LG. Bapl. kuttan, 17983.
Keral a,
workers,
~ i t ht h e
migration
of
s k i Xled construction
1.9Q63.
reeul ted i r t
CWari.Xa1, K.Nm
It has
bean f o r c e i u l l y
argued
t h a t the
acrtclnomous increase
off
in t h e
wage r a t a s
in t ! ~
irl
sympathetic i n c r a a s Q
r e l a t e d labour 1Y9lf.
wqr!
mark.et
It w a i l
i n Kerals
to
to d i s p u t e t h a t i t d t d p l e v a n irnowrtant r o l e and .that t t z c o n s t r u c L i u n sector aiztaci as 3 b.iacp l e a d e ? . The i n c r e a s e An waqes f a s t e r than i r~creclse i t ) p r ~ L \ tC I v i - t y i n the agriruI iu~'a! sector i s c.i.aitnen to have nad n deletcrr.iaus, impact on output emu1 ~ y m a n t i n t h i c, s e c t o r L Y a n n ~ n wr\d Pushpangadan, IT?@: Krishnai,, 1Br't 3 . Ct-a~pj.ngio t e i ~ st i y dnd grass cul t i v a t c d Idtic! decl i n e d arid agri cul turd1 uu.tput s e a q n a t e d . Despite the d r c l l r l ~ r r garaf .i tabil i t y o f aqricultctt-a, iancl c o n t i n u e d to be a pre+ev.red asset: h e l d i n y due tu. p w s ' ~ i b i 1 i t i e s o+ specuio%ivr prof j.k t h a t ccruid be maae i n a p e r ~ c d oT- r i s i v g land p r i c e s ,
need I>herlomwnai
i t ~ c r e a s si n l ar\d
p r i c e s .tor
I-esi denti a1
51tr;,
avail i n the
mirr-o
1 eve1 s t ~ l dcs i
e a r l i er
time
by k k ; ~
These ~ b s e r v a t i c s n s w e
collabara?xcl b y the
f o r selected
avai. 1.abie
series dsta an
Lana pcicl.5
i9U7~.
v i l l a g a s LNair
P H
G 19B9;
Varqhesa,T.O.
T h e clata p r o v i d e d
b y the G 1 1
T n l i c ~Dabt
and
Investment S ~ r v e y r
reveal that t h e value a+ l a n d or~nac: by a r u r a l househol~:: i f ( Kerala increased ty. dr011rrd 6@U ~ e r - cent. between 1971 and l?ifl.
Dcring
order af
the pr-evious
on1 y c n I:?:e
180 p e r cent.
~ s c a l a t i o nin value
of 1 i d f t J
Irl
I*rlJ
prices.
income
l a n d would h o l d
onto t h e
l a n d for e p e r u l a t i \ ~ r
erctraardrnarily b , ~ g i t
i ~ c o
r e a s o n s in
t h e above situcltj.on.
Thus the
,that
have
sceptical
19863.
uf
P. 1.1.
1 7 8 5 ;
and S t a h i , C.
On t h e c n n k r a r y w s
w i s h to clnphasize t h a k
the developmental
as it
njrci.'a snvirunirtant in t h e stat$ beer1 coniluei ve t o increasi tsg aqri cul t 2 r a 2 p r ~ d u c t i v i ty. Gf W T S Y S ~ . w h a t cuul d b e P ' A ~ sezl dss & d(c'.it i c i s & a g a i nst t h e davei ~ j p m ~ i i ' k a l . CunseqLtence 04: *:.he t-em1 ttscnces i is t.t.kat; t h e y have tended tc; t - n i r t f a r c e t h s p r e e s i . s t i n g st.rueturc;?s3 C ur~der-C)eveLoo~~ts;nff ra::.~tt??. than braat:: thztrr dawn. 4 t at.,), rate t h e above d i s c u s s 1 c~rt 3 i*n<! and l a b a u r m a r k e t e iias 1 S. T. tl e r . , s L evance i n an e x p l a n a t i 0i.1 n G ~;7u 1 0 i ~ nvcst.mant irt $ 2 1 7 ~1 argc? seal e i ndustci a1 s e c t o r .
has
accurt-eci 1n
Section 4
Reaional Economic C r i s i s a a f l e e d +or a ~ o t i e vReorientatitn The var-9ous strantl~;o f disi:ur.sions 4.n tha prevxouu sc+.;cl.ics~.: n ttvs 1-agi orla1 domesti r, p r o d u c t , ccrnrsump r; i or!, i nvest.rnent , remi i: tances, capital flaws and t r a d e b a l &nce i n variu~cs s e c t i a r ~ s c a n be poricjdi sed ir\t.o .three d i s t i n c t pease5 a5 is
p r e e e n t s d ~ r > t h e cl-tart haictw.
'Ciftieki
T h e Ohas& :E aslertiir;
and t h e
early sixties,
pnase 1 1 r a n g e e between
, c?31151 sti
IX~
OC
the birst
one
ha1 i:
decaaos~of
was 6
t\ip ~ C A Z
per c a p i t a p r o d u c t i u n ,
el a w qruwth.
P e p a t r i & t i u t >c r f
a a d a
. . . . e
---..
fikase j c . i .Kg,u5k:q?>2a2;fie&ppaent
__r----r-------------*-....r-
si rice inaeoend1il.g
ait-'tb t o tiG-'78s
i %er
I ewor
SW: d~eIetation
ilo~prtban
-.--ICIIL--I--C*I.-__-I---..-^----..---*-"--
...-
. . . . I . . .
'dr~th of
SUP: gins.?r
(!~ilbrtnafi
Joaw t j c
?ro6i.!itian
itat i6nai
firtianal
average)
-.---------.-----.--"--.-. "---I-.C--..-*"--.----------"------~------M--------"---------------Investrmt
--r--..---r------.
average)
!on
rises
Iw
-
falls
biqh
f oreiqn reri ttante rew t tancelSDP raticc shrrqiy
--.----r--r-LI------~----r*-------------"II----lr-..--------
Cinsulli.?~m :ow
3cd ttaclca
m n l y intwrtqional
~ r l n l y interregional
~ni!ws
r lSC
relatively small
C q l t tl flcrw
deftcits
kt autf ion
kt rnCIaw
Wet outflow
.
,,
---.-~----.-Y----~---..L-.---.)---^-~-UUI----CC~--UI-------CI-..----C-U-II-~-------
3 1 . :. ii 7 44
'
is:3 4 .-
-.
I I
i
tile
gt-c~\~th i r G ti18
5re~ii:jnal
ecanomy sharply
.A
.. a k : ~ e e?raf:cl.E; i
b:,c:t
ic
i?ccir,s;;riiy; i.S
DL(&
G
i-IQ
tc
.
tnc
:
!.iigij ~rfipc;ct
3
1v
pro!ltensitv
3:i
F L i i ~ ? i > ~ rt-h e
I ?.;i.lt ~-fur- net ~
channaixss.;j:
t -21~r t
, ."pat
o,! trade
-
rest
CI*
It.~Tjia.
tfte
t-ssult.
1 1 ~ sbeutr
the
emergence a+
hiqh tonsumption
eci3non1y w1'2?1
$01.1 o 4 u iI
d :?&~i:~;ai-C;
I e;.!erci ~ us
e:<:pendi. t~,re in
t . 1 ~ state, t h a t
iS
i rivas.trmsn.i, ha:+
~f
t-;
O + f?
01-
ili
+i-e?i
rerrtittanceo.
12;
O = C + X +
E
2s
<f(-Pl:r
X e x p a r t s and M 1rnp0rt.r;.
(3i
c + 1
,5585
-r
{ X
. . a
r4)
whcrc E is e ~ p ~ r t c i i t u r a . Substi.:utirtq
w o ilave:
C J - ~ ~ ~ E ! ~ .
--
39#9 crc5r.e;.
etch-tummy
In
$actor-, tlie
can
re
i n the regiooaj.
&Lr>ni;iity
st-
~lac~i !ktained
an1 y
uf
t'ct-ough
. z u l ~ san t ti . a:.
h ~ r r . o w 'rtg r
d i +j. i?~?st(nerti:.Clr.,.3m u ~ i t r de i
t17~ :.'S~~.UI-I.
In the
ir c
abse!kct+ sf
Aii j
+unds
.to the
13sc.linc
:,be?
r.@:.pii t.i:ai-tresi,
L C ! ! q3 ....r:!:+d,t"
, .
I
7's
presarrt p ~ t f . ! o+ oti!~eLuprhent is
I it
i:l~ar.~ uosustninable. y
acanony
ttsr
recet;.L i-;eveLuprnanirs
k h e qat:aclal
W e
rras added
'ihak
tti;s;
reqzcjnal
aovarsq
I
terms
CJ+
trade
+clr ttie
i s lj.k e l y
and
+u ttlave
ill
directiifi.
ttrt-s
C'i'hamas
Isaskc, Reddy,
Uuvvury,
14922
a.tner- ~ ; i. rmar y cornctiodr k.1 6+x,pctr-tar-c, K e r a L a d i d nut k~c+'fer +r-am acjverse t e r m s ti+ trade L O the l a s t +aur decades, Tfie 1 7 t . 1 Id d e c l . ina d u r i n g 1960-.75 wjra m ~ l r ' t ? tnafi campsnsatcr! by t k e
ik
rrk ti>*
t e r s t n s o# t r a d e
since mid-'70s.
firdl
;OY-icilary e x p o r t
cainmotlf.tfes
t h e pr-'ice~iof
'Tho
+ram Ksra3 a b i ci not crasl? af tcr- the boom c4 mi d-'71Es. latter e n ~ o y e d bauyant and r-elativel y s t a b l e denanr!
r a n d i t i o n s i n the interneitionnl
for
rubbet-
tnarket
and coconut,
within
cumber-
of fac'tors
had
af f e c k i n g t h e s u p p l y of
3ut g i ~ e n
cyciical pa'i-tex.n of
: Y ~ ~ P i i :
uutpat q r 0 w t . h ant5
it-.
prices o f
psrer~i\idStl C
C 0 f i m ~ d 2t i e s
is
61
downwerd -i;renci
tho
already
supply.
visib2e.
the
lunqer
term
froc!
cornustitintr to
a
r u b b e r and
Eefald'a
8 n C
t.xpou.ts
Q+
is lil:.eJy t.0
interroit'y
SQUPCUS,
fn t l ~ nat.i.anal market
%he 2 nternational
it
is
prices CaiI cont inur i rtdef i n i tel y qji verl t.he new l i $ere1 isaki un p o l icy r e y i ma. Xi\ c m t r a s t , t h e prices e > f tfte m a i r ~ :il;tpou'f: catnmndities af Kerala Such as grams, sugar, cetraertt, steel arid p9t.ro1eurn a r e l i k e ) . y t ~ ' rise + a s t e r Chc*r\ t h o qa!rc=;ral Q I " ~ . cI ~ ;?vu.~. as ;in k t ~ e past. Ti>+ guiicy o S curraiiing t h e s u b s f dies i s going to +wee ?,;erala t b increwsr rrgI y re33.y , art cspeil mar.ket purchases. The i1e.i: recult: frl the 1 i k e t i hood of adveu'se mvernenl; 111 the terms oC t r a d e which would be a further- d r a y nn tho impruvemc.i~t the rsr?.X income 0:'
cuco~uts divzrrced f rc,n
eighties.
exports
Un1 i kcr!
the
5
hzvs
tended
khe
eighties.
Trt:?
un~equlated t r a d e
generated
cornpurs~ar~sand
ir.tc&nat:ives hake
caused resuurcs d e y l e t i a r l &nd eco1ogicaX d e g t - a d a t i a n w!tich tartar are leading to a dawnturc? o+ t h e exports bict a l s o af-fecting t i t p other* s e c t o r s af the economy tt7t-ough w a t ~ i .s c a r c i t y , depletion ol Local +acid avai 1wbi 1i t v , raw material sl?ortages to cottage industries, e t c . I t is ?)if.+ icult to ease tl~esr; c a n s t r a i n t a i n the st.rort run. In the sixties t h e r e a l incant& e+.ltect of the t n l l i f deterraratian i n barter terms t o a ~ r u a te x t e n t t a a mi t i g a t e d by
t h e r a p i d expanGron
case today. it
of the q u a n t i t y of exports.
T h i s is not t h e
g a i n g to +ace'a
new phase.
tcwards emphasis on the p r o k e c t l a n uC common pt-aporty resocrrcesi end scol ogi cal regenerati an g p r i ovi +. y for increasing the aqricul tural p r o d u c l i v i t y by creating t h e e r x t ~ r n ail ties tttraugh scie~rti f ic land-water management and ap~ropt-.l,atii f aci l .it a t i i r g organ; uati.ocml atructurae: ~mprcrvcfient and d i v e r u i ricsti on a+ pr-nducts o+ ttcaii tionai inOu5tr.i~~ encouragement to pramotr vat us addi t i v n in the availaijle resources p r i ? r t i c u l ~ r l v Tufther pracesring activities in rubber, alunlirli~~i~ wood ., P Y Q C I L ~ C ~ S e.trl9 and d i vorei C.icai:ion of 'tP& i ndustr'ial pvoductiun to n t t w nor1 resource based r n o u s t r i a l sactar-s that are? s k i 1 1 i r ~ t r n ~ ~ and ~ vh e i g h value addiag in which Kerale c m l d have cornparati vv advantage. .
policiaa
state
a+ t h e
social Zt=tsrvgntian tu g i v e a
prucess. Hathev than
productidn the
n c +
d i r s c t l o n to
new
i n i t l e . t z n g any
venturosSor:
direct
ta u t i l l s e t its l i m i t e d Sunds +at- p r o v i d i n a r n+rastructurez. and incentives f o r the product1 VP i n v e s t m e n t :>+ t h e Cunds t h a t today flow i n t o l u x u r y C O i I ~ u m p t i O n or out a+ the s-tdte. #parat: +rom the inefficiency of t h o s t a t e fiiachinery. t h e major hancfieap af t h e s t a t e governmcrnt in i l l t i t a s k 1% the lie?ver(a qiecsrl c r i s i s it faces t i < . I , . G a u r g e , 1'3921. The cant1 ncrous def i c i t s Sn the revenue account and tlic f a 1 l u r e to fund even th& m o d e s t plan a1 P ercations have asen the recurring Seatur-e a+ Kerala'a budget$ far more than a
g ~ v ~ n i ~ hau i n tgot:
decade
now.
The
scope
fur
significantly
c u r t a i 1 iny
the
social expend~tures is v a r y limited. , The praspects af the Federal Fi.nance Comml~sionst a k i n g a generous view of the s p e c i a l p r o b l e m s are also not: brigtrt.
adn~inistrntive or
financial c o n s t r a i n t s a* t h e s t a t e strengthen t h e arguments for review af t n e prcesent investment p a t t e r n and r - s + i x a t i a r r nf t h e priarxties. It also incresses the relevance of a more ducentr-ali ued participatory development s t r a t e g y t h a t can l a p the local resources and the urrutl.lir;eci man powor f o r t h a cr eatiun o+ e x x e r n a i j:ties in a y r i c ~ cture l and ecolagioal regenerati on.
The
a u t ~ i d ethe
scape ~f
the p r e s e n t
paper.
fir r
cuncfuding
sentence w e s h a l l
.agr~cu.ltur.d p r u d u c t s has
that
i f the
p r e s e t r t d r i f t a+
C e n t t - e +ar Il)evel~~pmerlt Studies (1975): filgv~~~y--~~pfl&~-l_qy.m-e,r!~.,-+~~ Qe.yg2..~~,?1-gr!f I::,uJ ,$..qy,, Un f ted Nat.I ons Nsw L'ark
L'narrdok 441 and Isul i i:y Group ( 19881 : L i v i n g Media I f i d l a , Nsw Delhi.
Canin~urcoF?e~earci.i bureair C i 1 ? 2 8 j: "Ercn g r . at i Q P , ir,waud 'Rarnatt &rtc.r;s and Econamic G r ~ 4 . h a+ KerSals'',Hepart a+ a Survey, Barnbay. Ecrvvury
Nata
t 1 '9SB)
.-. . y r ~ i i rance of I n t e l - Regi anal 'I r ade Ganguli B.N. : L 5 ' & 2 3 : fial;tnco w i t h S p + ~ i a L ReCerence t w 'c'ndi a", V.K.R. V. Raa st.al. (ad. ) );:a~~e.rsj...g-rt-~a~i.gt:~.a>. .Jriggj~jg+:~:r?l.,.Al-j-~.fj~tl-~o~,i,i~~r VOX 1 I.r Asi a Publ ishinq House, New Zjaini ? 1'-36=?.
-g
,I
.9 a p
Y v
"
i1 992 ) : .- . K
. P1crno~)raph
: ,.
.,
. .
3. . . ~ & i+ o Y P' I ~ C O I B ~ ng )
P i m i ? l r : ~ " * L . . ~ L ~ L
Cetltre
+or
on Economy and
Saczc+!:yU, CF!jj,val
XXV
(57).
Government cf K e r a l a, Di i r c - c t o ~ - t i . t ~ :-f t:cc;ncsml cs and Stati %tics, .---- ._3r1 ......---.---~?ci:~.ii~~~ .,A y y !2c! y y ...-..,., y y -...Eil?!! l . ~ ! ~ . f l ,.,. @~ 190n t.. .. (1982): .:w~ver r Thir clvanai'l~thapur-am.
Uaver r,rnent 0.f. 1<e1-ai a , S t a t e P l an!?i nq Board, ( 175'1b ) s Reportfin Insti t~ttannal CJ.,'idnee" Tnir-uv&nanPnapuram, 19t')I.
"'Task4o f r e (Rimer;),
Ouldti f . S a n d ' Modi, dshok (IC,:US); "Remittance& oC Indian fligrants to t h e Mxdale East: FIII Gssessit~enk w i t h Special Se+wenca to Ptigrar\ta 4:rorn Ir:ersf,a' , . i a p . . . . l C c e n t r e f u r Davel apment Studier , Thi t-uvanan thapur am.
h ia I . N. (19b7): "K:eraLa ' 5 P u i I dirrq Jndustry l n Trar-tsi ticm: IFI S t u d y on t i i e arganisatlinii o$ P r ~ d u c . t i a o and Labour P r o c e s s " , MPhi 1. T h e ~5 i Centr.cl +:or Devel upmerit 5tudi es Thi cuvar.tanthapur aa;.
Joseph K.V
f198h):
DeveXspment uf of k:c?t-&i a ,
Kanrran .::4 P and Fi.tshpangat;han, k. r 19SrQ3)c "Dl ssect i ng A g r i c u l turn1 Stagnation i n Kerala : Gn A n a l y s i s Recross Crops, Seasans s.l-,d Regions", xn g-cW, vol.XXv (35;.
~ r a k a s t lE l . A,
Study",
Erg, V c j i .
in
! :
anc-l
, ,'fhe
va1,Ia ( 4 0 ) .
t 5. 2 : ":!r~.I:el*-;;tate ur Inker-R(9qianal '!ra%dtt:: Safinc { - t i i Com;;.i.:aticjn w i l s n $ip~~i>.&L Reference tu i r l ~ l j a ' ' V.K',F<,V. ~ 3ao e + : . a l . tecJ., Paj~p,r_~-c~.:,rr.,t.Ia:I:~.1gp$l., Incct,.ts at:si 6 S T , Vol .f .I Rsi a Pub1 l shl ng Iia~tse, New -.-. ...*.,,-.-.. -. .-, -- . D e l hi.
S j va
5~1k~l1'aill~ . ri ~i
8alancz 04:
Sun~nda 5 . (IT:ig! " I r t s $ . . i . ~ c r t ~ c j r i a iZ r e d i ' t fat*, R g r i c u l t t ~ r e in Kera:l.a", PJ.Fh.iI 111esj. s Centre CatDeval o p m e r ~ t Stud:i t ? ~ , T h i ruvan a n t l i s ~ s ~ ~ r a r t ~ . Surtrty k.:. P. (1988: "Cnnsumpst i o n &ah&.vicsuv. t r t K ~ I - a l a - I I Citudv L?r Nak1ona.I S.'impl a c'j1.1~ \tey i ~ a ~ , ? - - S V 5 ~ / ~ 5 ta $ 2985" I 1 . F17:i it T'heei s C e n t r e ,f ar Eev6.l opfireil t: S-;.~td ies T : l i r uvanantt..a~~ct.ratn.
.*
Tharakao
c ~.WVACC)TP
F. : , !1977> : "Mxqrati rsn o f Farmers .Grair~ to M a 1 abar : HI? Anal y&i s O$ i L 5 E c a r t ~ mc i Conseqeunces" , i-':>i .I Ttit::'5 ~~ , !::enf.rce For Devsl opment S t x d i es ,
M:ii=hacL
i L39Y) : "Ef C.eci:i vr Local L e v e l Dei i v w y DeY/i-?.l upmer t Re t ated P r o g r aromsa: The Case i34 1i r t i i a" r: C t i r l ~ ~ tan1 tl Fiqaeu. Pwc.), 4, C:NDP/ZSCUP Semi rtarorl E f S e c t i ve Lucziil I,eue~. lie1 $. \, cwy a+ t-i!~,i?an F<s;-..;uur-cc+; Ilevvel r~piner~lr Re3. ated Pt-.csqr-acnfltes 1 - t : ~ C; 3t E&ngi:.ak 23-27 Mat.cls
of
1hatxas isaa~:,1'. Pi. ( 1992): "'rr'.adi kic3nd.l. Irldu~t:t.'-ies: Yoderni eat?. or, arid O t h e r . Prc;blatns", i.17 . . K . I . ! . ' ~ . ! : ~ . ~ , ? ..-..,7:hg!-!~?tr-?ti.~-&chL~~,~ A c y a F~f1.13.Al;- 1~9, ?':~ir-uvanar~.;:ltatji~i*~rn.
Thomas Isaac i'>. and i+audy.fiam Mar-rot~ar ( 1 9 9 2 ) : "Estimates o.6 Trac$e Uccoui?% 13 f k:sra : a 1 ';75-.7h .?~nl=i 1988.-8I " ~.lc71~:~~~-.~g.~~~a~~r:..2.46, C e r ~ t r c --fur Revvi tipmet'ttl S t i;dl :=s l h i t- i-rvananthapuram.
Tsaac, F?edcly, Ratn arid Ui~vvut-y , Nat a , ( 1992; : "Ray i o i ~ c ~ l Thui;las Terms uS T~.aCju+at-. t;:etPal a" W.qr.b;$-c~ , . . J?gp-tr. . r 1 . c i .2 . 4 ? . , Centre f o r Devel.opmerrt 3 t u d i es T h i ruv a n a n thapur-aln.
'Thofiat; Isaac 7 h . and T'ha?-&!::an,Ili chae:!. ii : An Enquivy i n t o t h e N i s k a r ical Fccm{-.s ~f 1nduatrj.al f~acl;hnrdnsr;s 09: Kerala & fitud.j/ OC 1 ' r . a v s . n ~ ~ ; - ; ? i n I . , Centre f o r i j e v e l apment 5 t c i d i es ! h :r ~nv&nari.tnapur. sic,
, -.
: saai 7 .M. a , i d Duvvttr i, i 1 9 9 2 )r T r e n d ar?d Patter11 Qf It: t e ~ . - S t a - tTr-ad& s il.!: Eeu-a:ia, ~?.rrt.~~.n:~-.--~;ip~t: r f orthecsming) Centrs f crr Deval ~pcrtwt3f: S-tudierj, 7't-IAruvartar~rt~apcrr.~m.
1'lwnls.s
Ver-ghestr f A , i I YS?! ''L.and I . 1r! Kal,-aZa w i t h Spacral H~.Fc?~.G~IL to B Tr.ans!:ers i n two Vi i Lsyas", K . Phi 1 . 'T'heeis, Cuntrs .For i)ev.ni opmsnt B3:ud:i e s i 1'3i i+~tvanan-L!~.ap~ii-din,
..