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5 years on
JCS presentation at A.L.I. 23-9-2013
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 1 of XX
JCS Engineering
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 2 of XX
JCS Engineering
Questions:
Who rules over money ? According to which principles ? Where does money come from ? Has there ever been a public debate about this ?
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 3 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
power
system
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
system system
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
economic structure tax & finance system monetary system legal & judicial system power system
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
investments economic structure tax & finance system monetary system legal & judicial system power system
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 11 of XX
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
socials investments economic structure tax & finance system monetary system legal & judicial system power system
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 12 of XX
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
culture socials investments economic structure tax & finance system monetary system legal & judicial system power system
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The pyramid means that any higher level depends on sound lower bases; that the quality of the monetary and finance systems seriously impact real life
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 13 of XX
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
culture socials investments economic structure tax & finance system monetary system legal & judicial system power system
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
autocracy ?
democracy ?
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 14 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 15 of XX
20
total debt
15
10
money mass M3
public debt
public debt
According to Simon Thorpes sums (http://simonthorpesideas.blogspot.fr) , total EuroZone debt is 2,5 times bigger than the mass of existing money M3. We see that the public part of debt, non-circulating money mass, gross domestic product are in the same range as M3. But the money that manages to circulate is only 8% of M3; the rest is idle!! From year to year, M3 is progressing in sync with public deficit, debt and non-circulating money; total debt is increasing faster than that due to interest; while economic activity (GDP) and circulating money hardly move
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 16 of XX
Since all our money is borrowed, 30 .. 45 years later the value of that debt has more than doubled in real terms due to real interest rates, and continues to grow relentlessly
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 17 of XX
With debt 2,5 times bigger than money, and only 7 % of that actually circulating, will we ever be able to pay back our debt ?
paying back the debt ? II
today tomorrow
overall Debt
non-circulating ?
overall Debt
result: real economy would immediately collapse paying back out of the live economy and out of savings will not help much either as
overall Debt
non-circulating
overall Debt
non-circulating ?
result: most of the debt is still there long after we used up all our money
Conclusion:
debts are piling up that can never be repaid within the current system; but ask for an ever-growing part of GDP being transferred to bond-holders as interest payments
jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 18 of XX
JCS Engineering
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 19 of XX
hidden target ? offer enough tax loopholes to well-connected and well-heeled, so that they can hoard their money and place it out of sight
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 20 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 21 of XX
Unemployment: 6 .. 10 .. 25 .. 35 % Growth: - 5,5 ... 0 ... 0,4 % public deficits : 3 .. 8 % public Debt : 25 .. 80 .. 120 .. 200 % neither managed nor controlled: - monetary mass:
- un-controlled creation & destruction of money by commercial banks - flows faster out of real economy than public debt can put it back, but readily flows towards speculation and hoarding - debt increases faster than money - to the public
- monetary flows:
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 22 of XX
We must be doing something wrong, the set of mantras and targets and laws we use does not lead to success When something so important goes so wrong for such a long time, despite everybody forcing himself to do as required, then we have to question The ruling philosophy rulemaking process rulemakers rules rulers
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 23 of XX
Comments
roman law; essential, but what about: Hellange, Petite Marquise,Taxes, Monopoles,GDP
free circulation of goods services capital people invasion from China & Germany ? for tax avoidance flees from taxation and accumulates in havens should move to where the jobs are: more Spaniards and Greeks to Germany !?
from Finance Ministry by commercial banks ! All lent out against interest
Central Bank does not finance the State State is financed by taxes and debt bond safety
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
&
Comments
instead of targeting circulating monetary mass, and working on that with the finance minister unless growth is bigger than interest rate and the debts rate of growth, it is impossible to stabilize any level of public debt, let alone paying any of it back without causing another recession and that growth is far from being there great success
hidden target : offer loopholes to well-connected and well-heeled, so that they can hoard their money and place it out of sight
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 25 of XX
GDP
9 TE
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 26 of XX
GDP
9 TE
CMM
Since most of us get paid by the month, and do a good job at spending the cash just as fast, money tends to circulate once per month, So the money that circulates is 1/12 of GDP Circulating Mass of Money CMM EuroZone = GDP / 12 = 0,75 TE
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 27 of XX
CMM
This the money that while circulating keeps us all busy, and pays for our salaries If 10 % of it is lost, there will be ~ 10 % more unemployment, If it increases by 10 %, we will
employ 10 % more people, or earn 10% more, or have 10 % inflation, or any combination thereof
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 28 of XX
M3
10 TE
GDP
9 TE
CMM 0,8 TE
Private Debt
NCMM
18 TE
Public Debt
7 TE PDF 0,6 TE PRF 0,7 TE
GDP : Gross Domestic product M3 : money mass CMM : Circulating Money Mass NCMM: Non-Circulating Money Mass PDF : Public Deficit PRF : Private debt growth 1 TE = 1 Trillion = 1x 1012 = 1 000 000 000 000
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 29 of XX
at i n cu l r i C
gM
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 30 of XX
at i n cu l r i C
gM
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 31 of XX
Commercial Bank
at i n cu l r i C
gM
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 32 of XX
Commercial Bank
at i n cu l r i C
gM
- ci Non
rcu
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 33 of XX
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
at i n cu l r i C
gM
- ci Non
rcu
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 34 of XX
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
at i n cu l r i C
gM
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 35 of XX
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
at i n cu l r i C
gM
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 36 of XX
bubbles ?
existing assets
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
at i n cu l r i C
gM
Foreign exchange
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 37 of XX
bubbles ?
existing assets
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
at i n cu l r i C
gM
Foreign exchange
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 38 of XX
existing assets
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
at i n cu l r i C
gM
Foreign exchange
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 39 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 40 of XX
Penury portrait:
Not that long ago every element of the received wisdomthat poverty is a problem, that public policy should try to reduce the numbers of poor, and that there are good ways to try to do so without hurting the economywould have been suspect. According to the mercantilist thinking that dominated European thought between the 16th and 18th centuries, poverty was socially useful. True, it was miserable for the poor. But it also kept the economic engine humming by ensuring the availability of plentiful cheap labour. de Mandeville: Going to school in comparison to working is idleness If poor people were regarded as instrumental in ensuring economic development, that explains why there was little appetite for policies to help them leave poverty behind. What action there was tended to be palliative in nature Thomas Malthus, a clergyman, blamed the plight of the poor on their own flaws Outdoor reliefgiving the poor moneyneeded to be stopped. why the poor stayed poor. The fault had long been placed at their door: the poor were variously lazy, prone to alcoholism and incapable of disciplined work . but the horrors of the Depression in the 1930s led many to re-evaluate the idea that poverty was mainly the result of peoples own actions worldwide consensus now : everyone thinks that poverty alleviation is both desirable and possible
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 41 of XX
existing assets
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
at i n cu l r i C
gM
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 42 of XX
existing assets
Central Bank
Co nti
Con tinuo us fe ed
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
nu ou
sf
ee d
ng lati u c Cir
MM
i u la t c r i -c Non
s Mas y r ta one M ng
The central bank pumped so much money into the real economy, that money & savings got worthless and debt lost its meaning. Assets remained unchanged, umemployment or food was not that serious a problem as later on.
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 43 of XX
go rn ve en m t
existing assets
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
M gM atin l u Circ
- ci Non
rcu
While pulling money out of circulation, Central Banks had an easy time wrecking every economy, getting the rot out the economy ; Governments sat idle
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 44 of XX
go rn ve en m t
ending this crisis, avoiding the next Germany after WW II, at the moment of the Whrungsreform
Private Debt Public Debt real estate
existing assets
Central Bank
One kick only
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
ng lati u c Cir
MM
i u la t c r i -c Non
s Mas y r ta one M ng
With nothing left, no debt but a good deal of cash from the Central bank, strong anti-cartel and keep-money-in-circulation initiatives, things went well for a long time after that.
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 45 of XX
go rn ve en m t
Bob Dylan: Masters of War come you masters of war . You play with my world Like it's your little toy
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 46 of XX
existing assets
Central Bank
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
at i n cu l r i C
gM
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu
= Tax
speculation items
23-9-2013
page 47 of XX
existing assets
Central Bank
Po siti ve
Commercial Bank
gold ; silver
JCS Engineering
e as Er s bt de ly on
mo ney
n lati u c r Ci
gM
- ci Non
rcu
go rn ve en m t
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 48 of XX
2) tell the banks to limit their activities to lending out money for real economy & businesses, not for speculation
3) dump the fractional reserve principle and forbid the banks to generate their own money-debt; they either lend and spend their own shareholders money, or up to twice as much as borrowed from the Central Bank => 33 % reserve 4) No bank to bank lending ( no more Libor/Euribor scandals nor domino effects )
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 49 of XX
Note: carefully manage the switch to 33% reserve, with authorities Proposal: buy out & nationalize all banks, put in sufficient capital, then sell again
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 50 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 52 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 53 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 54 of XX
We do not have to follow the US in every aspect, so: - encourage use of debit cards, not credit cards - no chasing of customers with consumer debts - no chasing of potential homeowners with mortgages that they cannot repay - no chasing people from their homes with expanded collateral demands
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 55 of XX
Yes, as through this world I've wandered I've seen lots of funny men; Some will rob you with a six-gun, And some with a fountain pen. And as through your life you travel, Yes, as through your life you roam, You won't ever see an outlaw Drive a family from their home.
oui je me suis balad un peu partout et j'ai vu beaucoup de gens tranges y en a qui te volent au rvolver y en a qui te volent au stylo et comme tu suis ton chemin oui et comme tu suis ta voie tu ne verras jamais un hors-la-loi chasser une famille de son chez-soi
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 56 of XX
According to (Neo-)Classic Economics, the only way to get that formula under control is: reduce the deficit to zero or below But, the actual experience is that - since so much money is lost in the circuit and not replaced - growth will turn negative faster than deficits can be reduced And nothing is achieved except more debt, recession, deflation, misery, political unstability. War ? another example: Japan 2013: 240 % debt; 8,4 % deficit: growth needed = 8,4/240 = 3,5 % With Abenomics, this they might well achieve
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 58 of XX
200%
100%
0% 0 -100% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 year 90
While contributing 10 % of his brut salary for 40 years, the person gets back the net equivalent of 22,2 % for 20 years. The same return can easily be achieved in a parallel system. The results are linear with the % contribution: if contribution is 5%, divide it all by 2; if it is 20 %, multiply by 2.
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 60 of XX
Conclusions:
Capital based systems suggest that we can beat demography that way, but neglect the fact that there will be not one more person around to work in the real economy later on. It is an attempt to pull the linen closer to us as we get old, at the expense of our children. And it has the disadvantage of penalizing the contributing generation as it does penalize the same real economy within which they are contributing. => Go back to full Pay-as-you-go systems (Umlaufsystem), raise the maxima to avoid forcing well-earners towards private systems, tax private systems, europeanize/internationalize, avoid the deflationary and other risks of large capital accumulations
JCS Engineering jcswork@pt.lu 00352 621 219 375 23-9-2013 page 61 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 62 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 63 of XX
Where does that money go to ? Is it being taxed, or are there 20 000 folks like Uli Hoeness out there ? Why is it not used, invested or at least distributed and spent !? Whom do D & NL shift the debt towards, while they take in the cash ? Are they hoarding it on Bank & Stiftung accounts ? Are they destroying it by paying their own debts back ? Are banks cleaning up their balance sheets and build reserves with that ? What (hidden ?) agenda is causing this approach ? So despite good performance in some areas of Europe, the citizens in all of Europe are stuck in the mud because we lack the push that this money could and should enable, while suffering from the deflation politics that made its earning possible
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 64 of XX
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 66 of XX
- the losers of the economic war may separate from the Euro, but even that may not help much as so much damage is already done
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
page 67 of XX
While living in a system that relies on - people and governments getting into debt to have any money at all - people spending their money to ensure our employment Too many people, politicians, economists are - stuck on the upper part of the story, and - do not or understand or refuse to acknowledge the lower part of it - would not assume responsibility for their actions & inactions in that respect
JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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JCS Engineering
jcswork@pt.lu
23-9-2013
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