Dick Morley

October 2011 morley@barn.org

Who Am I?
Skier Physics PLC NCMS Harley-Davidson 25 children Angel Machinist

My office

My commute

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

The Real Problems

Global competition Time to market Cost Rapid growth Continuous rapid tech change

Problems
Fashion / fads Management demands / instant gratification Change always Blockers Open / closed

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

Technology Predictions:
1954 Popular Mechanics Magazine

Scientists from the RAND Corp have created this model to illustrate how a home computer could look like in the year 2004. However, the needed technology will not be economically feasible for the average home. With teletype interface and the Fortran language, the computer will be easy to use.

Copyright 2007 Rockwell Automation, Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictions
Japanese 1901 80 / 20

1901 / .593 (+)

Worldwide wireless telephone Worldwide color photo instant transfer Rise of China, Japan & Africa Round-the-world trip in 7 days, global travel for everyone Warship in air Air conditioner Advanced voice transmitter, love talk over 10 miles Picture telephone Shopping by picture telephone Electricity as fuel Bullet train 2.5 hrs. between Tokyo and Kobe Electric needle treatment w/o pain or medication Automobiles w/o horse Advanced education Countrywide electricity distribution

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

1901 / .593 (cont).

Green Sahara Extermination of flies & fleas Cultivation by electricity of tropical plants in Greenland! Worldwide railroad network Natural disaster control Extinct wild animals Rubber tire trains in the air and underground Everyone taller than 6 ft.

Future History
I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers. Thomas Watson, 1943 Computers in the future may weigh no more than 5 tons. Popular Mechanics, 1949 But what is it good for? Engineer at IBM commenting on the microchip, 1968 There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. Ken Olson, 1977 640k ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, 1981

Predicting the Future

Weather forecasting Science fiction Delphi survey Groundhog Wild cards

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

Cycles of Growth

1995 Predictions
Japan as a financial center Moore marches on Gene splicing and dicing in wide use NA a single economic entity Mass production becomes digital and POS Nuclear power returns Education in turmoil Two hours to anywhere

Communication
RF WWW IT revolution Bandwidth

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

Bandwidth (BW) Time (Power Law)

BW FedEx CNN WWW Process

Low

Refresh

High

Reduce the Need

iPad Predictive Autonomous

Industrial Bus Hierarchy

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

History Complexity
Relays Transistors Minis PLCs Cells MES / MRP Tablets States vs. behavior

Costs / Complexity
Costs

History

Old Technologies

Complexity

Counterproductive Business Practices

Lowering costs is the key to prosperity Mass production lowers costs Corporate culture modifies human behavior Management science exists?
The business book

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

Simulation
Stagger through life Virtual into real
My barn

Models and simulation

Predictive Postdictive Understanding Fun

Energy

Innovations Coming
Grid computing Wireless / batteries Virtual bandwidth Quantum communications Femto CAD / CAM 3D mfg. Point of sale processes

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

Wild Cards
Semiconductor No landline phones all uplink satellites foundries at Global population dispersion individual companies Smartskin planes 59% of USA not working in large companies Ink jet printed autos
for custom paint jobs Permanent Antarctic residents
Engineering productivity doubles...not an art form anymore

NASDAQ accepts foreign companies... solicits them

Mechatronics gains respect

PC reversal insurance and crime not solved by wishes

Market lowers to 6000 and then to 30,000 equiv in 2020

More SFI orgs for ed Spamming Becomes positive

Beyond MMXX
Molecular computing Quantum dots Artificial
Life Evolution Behavior Intelligence

What Manufacturers Need

Customer Base Cost reduction? Unfair advantage Time to market 10x tech

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

Challenges to Manufacturing
Culture inhibitions Top-down organizations Fads and fashion Hiring the obedient

Tiger Beetles
Run and stop Info bandwidth Bio model Elmer / Bugs / binoculars

The Technology
More impact than politicians Has legs Work defines tech changes work

Invention is the mother of necessity!

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

You
Must be able to innovate, adapt and understand your customer Must communicate with the user/owner Must use left and right brain Must have lots of luck

Summary
Is Morley a nut? Wake up call Invention is the mother of success Goals are the emergent property of process

The only way to create wealth is with new technology!

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org

morley@barn.org

NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show October 2011 morley@barn.org