June 2011

TECHNICAL BRIEF SCENARIO BUILDING

Technical Brief Scenario Building

Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Objective ........................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction to scenario building ........................................................................................ 3 Key principles .................................................................................................................... 4 Scenarios approaches ...................................................................................................... 5 How to proceed ................................................................................................................. 5 References........................................................................................................................ 8

ANNEX I The different types of scenarios (Choularton, 2007) .................................................. 8 ANNEX II Recommended templates for phase 1 and 2 of needs assessment ........................ 11

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Technical Brief Scenario Building

1. Objective
This document on scenario building provides guidance on how to develop a scenario, including a step-by-step approach. This brief document can be used to guide scenario exercise planning, both before or during an emergency, and can be used by practitioners and policy makers alike.

2. Introduction to scenario building

A scenario is a description of situations that could occur; a set of informed assumptions about a situation that may require humanitarian action (Choularton, 2007). It is also describes as an account or synopsis of a possible course of events that could occur, which forms the basis for planning assumptions (IASC, 2006). Scenarios indicate alternative ways in which the situation might evolve, based on: 1. Current humanitarian situation (situation analysis); 2. Assumptions about possible future shocks and opportunities, taking into account the type of emergency and its volatility; 3. Peoples resilience and vulnerability. 4. In-country capacity to respond Scenarios are based on specific, informed assumptions about future events and their effects. These assumptions not only support the understanding of the current conditions, they also allow for the estimation of future disaster outcomes. In addition, a clear description of key assumptions facilitates both the explanation of risk analysis to colleagues and partners and the process of updating scenarios as new information becomes available. Example Assumptions

Effects on humanitarian needs and operations

Onset of winter in the north, steady normalization in central province and pockets of stagnant waters in parts of the south

Access is restored across most of the affected areas, with some remaining gaps in regular road networks Continuing concerns related to the safety and security of operations

Different needs and response modalities required in different parts of the country Prolonged food assistance (beyond six months) required in areas where planting not possible Risk for disease outbreaks in areas that are still flooded Prolonged disruption of critical services in areas that are still flooded Reduced coping strategies for vulnerable and poorest segments of population that continue to live in displacement and/or camps or remained in flooded areas Winterization of shelter and livestock a priority, especially in the north. Steady reduction in relief support in central provinces and increase in early recovery support Large number of diverse actors carrying out relief and early recovery activities across many geographical areas Markets and prices remain inflated in cut-off areas until regular road networks and bridges are restored. Steady improvement in access to affected areas and communication networks. Need for strong and effective coordination structures across areas and clusters to ensure timely, needs-based and appropriate assistance Some restrictions on humanitarian access due to limitations on movement on goods as well as people (humanitarian workers, especially international staff, as well as affected population) Source: Revised Flash Appeal, Pakistan (2010)

The rationale for doing scenario planning is: To support strategic planning and, more specifically, appeals development

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Technical Brief Scenario Building Identify assumptions underlying anticipated needs and related operations Enhance adaptability and design of detailed assessment Influence monitoring systems Scenario building can take place as part of disaster preparedness (contingency planning) or during an emergency, to prepare for the possible evolution of a crisis. When used within the framework of a needs assessment, scenarios are used to build and plan for possible future humanitarian situations and needs. They are particularly useful in the first days of a disaster (phase 1 of assessment) to identify potential future situations and to create situation awareness amongst key stakeholders.

3. Key principles
Scenario development can be done either on an individual basis or in a group. Always include support of selected key informants/experts, who have knowledge of the country context and the current crisis impact. Build scenarios around specific planning objectives. Planners must consciously define what will be useful for their purposes, and what will not. Understand and agree that you need different levels of details at different time. Base scenarios on, as a minimum, experience, lesson learnt, secondary information and direct observation. Requires the identification of the known unknowns. Include just enough details to permit planning and to communicate to others the anticipated conditions and needs of the affected population. Do not base your scenario on issues that will certainly take place. Only select factors that are genuinely variable and subject to significant alternative outcomes. Focus on the impact of the scenario on people and their livelihoods, and the related needs. Link this analysis to an informed programme or response design. Avoid the scenario traps: o Admit that you will never be completely right, and accept that you do not need to be for your planning process to be effective. o Determine which scenarios are needed to move forward with planning, rather than trying to develop all possible scenarios. o Understand when differences amongst assumptions have a serious impact on the plan and when they do not. o Set a time limit for scenario development. o Instead of using exact numbers, use ranges or round numbers. o Identify which scenario is most likely to unfold and which has a greater impact (probability and impact level) o Appoint a coordinator for the scenario development and respect their decision to continue. o Come back to your scenario(s) after doing some planning. This can often focus the scenario discussions and illustrate what issues are worth further exploration, and which ones are not. o Do not develop scenarios that are overly detailed. Do not get stuck on details.

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4. Scenarios approaches
The first approach draws on expert opinion: scenarios are developed by achieving consensus among relevant, available experts. This method is common when there is no previous in-country examples and/or when scenarios need to be developed for complex situations, such as conflicts, which are difficult to model. The second approach (historical analogy) uses the history and lesson learnt from past crises to develop scenarios for future ones. Documents on previous crises such as assessment reports, lessons learnt and evaluations are reviewed. Afterwards, differences between the current crisis and previous crises are defined, including for instance population demographics and urbanisation. These two analyses are then combined and scenarios are developed. In some cases, this method can be as simple as taking an old assessment report and building a scenario from it. The third method of scenario building is field assessment. During these assessments, baseline information is collected, key informants are interviewed and scenarios are discussed with the affected population and their representant. This method allows assessment teams to gain broad input quickly, especially when little information is available and informs scenarios and plans with knowledge of conditions in the field. The fourth method of building scenarios is projection against a baseline. Here, key assumptions about the impact of a crisis are made, and then tested against baseline data. The result is a projection that can often be quantified. This technique is most commonly used with demographic baselines, for example to model population displacement based on census data disaggregated by ethnic group. It is also common in the food security field, in the shape of the Household Economy Approach1. Some of those approach can be used together, depending on time and resources available.

5. How to proceed
Step 1: Gather and review the necessary information A review of the following documents or information is necessary before to start the scenario building process: The contingency plan, if any; What is known about the typical effects of this type of event (ACAPS Disaster Summary Sheets, lessons learnt, previous CAP or Flash Appeals for similar type of crisis in similar type or area); The disaster situation analysis, including: o The preliminary information available concerning the crisis impact and the extent of the area affected o The background (pre-crisis) information available on the area and the affected population o The hazard country profile (review of past hazards, seasonality, frequency, impact) and the upcoming events (Rainy season, winter, elections, etc.) Step 2: Define number and scope of scenarios Based on this information, define duration and scope of your scenarios. Take into account upcoming events, try to assess to what degree it is possible to predict common trends and for how
1

For one interesting example of this approach, refers to Solving the risk equation: People-centred disaster risk assessment in Ethiopia, Tanya Boudreau, HPN, June 2009

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Technical Brief Scenario Building long they may remain valid. Define the area and population of interest. Range the timeframe your scenarios should fit in, for instance from 3-4 months for conflict situations and 4-8 months for sudden onset disasters. It is generally recommended to develop, at minimum, two scenarios (most likely and worst case). For complex emergencies, 3 to 5 smaller scenarios are recommended to capture the alternative evolution of the, often dynamic, situation. Step 3: Identification of risks and opportunities The first stage is to examine the findings of the step 1 review to determine which are the most important factors that will decide the nature of the future environment. These factors are sometimes called variables or drivers (for change) and may have a positive impact (cease fire, end of the winter, water recession, etc.) or a rather negative impact (continuation of conflict, aftershocks, epidemics, etc.). They are therefore referred to as opportunities or risks that may influence the way the situation will evolve in the future. Each risk and opportunity is then organized according to the likelihood of occurrence versus the likely importance of its impact or consequences on the affected population. The following table can be useful to organize and prioritize the identified factors. Only the most Impact/consequences Likelihood relevant factors Insignificant Minor Moderate Important Major should be inAlmost certain cluded. SceLikely narios are a Possible technique for Unlikely presenting Rare alternative futures and should not be based on predictable factors. It is necessary to quickly identify and isolate certain topics the issues that will definitely take place and cannot be ignored (e.g. winter and extreme temperature during night for population that remains at an altitude higher than 2000m). Use them instead as an introduction to the scenario or include them within the situation analysis. Your final list will be based on the factors that are the most likely to occur (Possible, likely and almost certain). In the same way, only risks and opportunities that are likely to have an moderate, important and major impact on the situation will be selected.
The most common types of assumptions are about: The cause of a humanitarian crisis (for example floods, aftershocks, epidemics, conflict, economic collapse, etc.), often called the contingency. The effect of this event or situation on people, its severity and the type of humanitarian needs it will generate (displacement of population, overcrowding, water scarcity, forced enrolment, etc). The timing and progression of events (arrival of new influx of refugees, stalemate, etc.) (See annex I, table 5). Other factors that will affect the ability of humanitarian organisations to respond to these needs. (roads and bridges washed out, conflict preventing access to affected areas). Assumptions about the capacity of humanitarian organisations to respond are also common, such as whether staff and supplies are prepositioned.

Step 4: Selection of assumptions Assess whether any linkages between different factors exist. Some elements are sometimes clearly related to each other and may be linked together to provide a meaningful framework (e.g. overcrowding/protection issues, return/land ownership issues, water pollution/water borne diseases, conflict resuming/new population displacement, etc.). Merging and combining different factors into groups that make sense will allow the creation of several mini scenarios,

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Technical Brief Scenario Building your assumptions. Assumptions are a set of statement that are assumed to be true and from which a conclusion can be drawn. Rule out any "impossible" factor (e.g. Magnitude 10 earthquake, NATO intervention, full compensation for victims, etc.). For the sake of simplicity, it is important to focus only on a limited number of assumptions. In practice, the challenge is to identify from two to four assumption containers or mini scenarios into which the most important factors can be sensibly fitted. Step 4: Scenario development On the basis of the selected assumptions, scenarios can be developed. The scenarios should reflect the likelihood of certain events occurring and their potential impact on the humanitarian situation and the affected population, as well as their priority needs and the necessary measures to be taken to get prepared in case the scenario unfold. Each scenario must clearly state what is the likelihood of occurrence (probability level) and the foreseen impact severity. Give also each scenario a descriptive (and catchy) name to ease later reference. While developing scenarios, take the following issues into account: How long will the event last? What trends, conditions or event may confirm or mitigate scenario projections? What is the probability and the impact level associated to the scenario The recommended content of the scenarios should be as followed:

Steps

Probability level: Impact level:

X X

Name of the scenario

Assumptions and triggering factors:
E.g. After heavy rainfall in the South, the water level will not recede before the next two month and a large area remains inaccessible for assessment and intervention. Affected population need to live in temporary shelter until access to their land and homes is possible.

Overall effects and impact of the event:

Core assumptions & impact

E.g. influx of 50.000 IDPs in overcrowded and non adequate shelter expose the population to public health threats such as during floods in 2008 when outbreaks were reported in camps.

Affected areas:
E.g. North and south west of the province are the most affected area.

Response capacity and gap analysis:

E.g. Government issue a call for external assistance to face the refugee problem. Very low capacity to respond on the NGO side and to face a disaster that scale. Affected population in urban centres are attended but rural population are waiting several weeks before to receive first assistance.

Population at risk & duration of the emergency

Affected groups (e.g. IDPs is a population at risk in case of further flooding) and their characteristics (numbers, demographics, specific vulnerable groups, copying mechanisms)

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Technical Brief Scenario Building

How are they affected (e.g. displaced in inadequate shelter, access to basic services, losses of assets) Location (e.g. in public building in urban areas, in camp settlement, etc) Duration of the emergency situation. Time period during which assistance may be required

Operational constraints

Access, security, logistics Most affected groups Most affected areas

Priority needs

Sectors requiring immediate assistance Key interventions (including intervention/assessment preparedness measures)

Depending on the circumstances (sudden onset, slow onset, complex emergencies, etc.), other templates for the scenario building may be more appropriate. Annex 1 provides different approaches on scenarios content while Annex 2 provides some templates for Phase 1 and 2 of needs assessment reports.

6. References
CAP training toolkit on Scenario building FEWS, 2010, Scenario development for food security early warning WFP (2005). Emergency Food Security Assessment, chapter 8 Undertaking an initial investigation HPN, 2007, Contingency planning and humanitarian action, a review of practices, Richard Choularton Scenario Planning, Wikipedia

ANNEX I The different types of scenarios (Choularton, 2007)

By far the most common approach to scenario-building in humanitarian contingency planning is the best, most likely/middle and worst case scenario. Scenarios are developed which normally (though not invariably) describe differing levels of severity of the same contingency. Little attention is generally given to the best case scenario. Instead, planners focus on the worst case and the most likely or mid-case scenarios (planning for the worst to be ready for the least).

Scenario

Drought

Flood

Earthquake

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Eq measuring 4,5 on the Richter Scale causing some minor damage in rural areas Eq measuring 6,5 on the Richter Scale causing some major damage in rural areas, including some medium-sized towns Eq measuring 8,5 on the Richter Scale with an epicentre in a major city causing catastrophic damage

Best

No drought Moderate drought affecting one part of the country Severe drought affecting large areas of the country

Normal seasonal flood

Middle/most likely Worst

Major flood affecting 100,000 people Extreme flood affecting 1,000,000 people in the capital city

Another approach to scenario-building is the augmentation or step scenario. This describes the potential escalation of a crisis in the scenario, and the corresponding response requirements. This type of scenario is often used in planning for refugee and displacement crises where, as the crisis progresses, the number of people affected progressively increases, along with the scale of their humanitarian need. In turn, the response capacity required of humanitarian organisations also increases. Augmentation or step scenarios try to set levels at which additional action and response capacity is required. In some situations, the thresholds established by these scenarios are tied to resources. When the threshold is reached, the resources are released.

Scenario
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario4

Number of refugees
5,000 15,000 50,000 100,000

Contingency plan
Provide registration and protection to refugees staying with host families Open refugee camp Deploy one emergency officer Open second refugee camp Hire additional staff members Open third refugee camp Hire additional staff members

Another approach the timeline approach defines conditions at set points in time, starting with the onset of the emergency. The timeline then allows planners to define what actions their organisations need to take, and when to take them, in order to adequately respond to the situation. As the example in the table below shows, the timeline approach is a simple and effective way of mapping out the complex evolving nature of a crisis, and provides a basis for more realistic planning to take place. This approach is especially useful for rapid-onset crises like floods, but can also be used in slow-onset scenarios.

Timeline
-1 week Day Zero
2

Description2
Excessive rainfall in upper catchments areas leads to rising water tables as reported by the irrigation department. The Meteorological Office forecasts continuing heavy rainfall Rivers overflow and water enters inhabited areas 20% of the total area of the district is immediately flooded.

Adapted from CARE, India

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An estimated 40% of the population are affected Displacement begins Conditions for affected population: First signs of food scarcity Frustration Migration Effect on affected households: Loss of shelter, displacement Loss of crops, livestock, asset and property 1/3 of the population non accessible by road Government requires external assistance Conditions of affected population: 10% of affected population migrated from the affected districts to neighbouring districts Remaining affected population placed in temporary shelters Sanitary conditions slightly improved due to emergency measures 60% receive some food aid unacceptable by international standards; no food for people with special food needs (e.g. infants) 25% remain unattended in remote or difficult-to-reach areas Daily coordination meetings at state level including government, army, INGOs, sometimes UNICEF; Practical coordination is not effective Water level in the flooded territory remains unchanged Army works on repair of dams and bridges. Security situation tense; deployment of police begins

Day 7

Day 14

Each of those scenario type present different advantages and may be use for different context or situation, as presented hereafter:

Approach

Advantages
Provides a basis for planning for different scales of problem Easy to understand and discuss Raise situation awareness

Best use
Planning for situations that are difficult to predict and where cumulative risks factors may difficult predictions (e.g. conflict) Planning for different extent of the impact (100.000>300.000<600.000 people affected). Describe differing levels of severity of the same contingency Displacement situations (IDPs and refugees) Slow on set disaster (Slow floods, drought, etc.) When sudden-onset crises occur and intervention needs can change very rapidly in the initial days and weeks

Best, most likely and worst case approach

Augmentation approach

Good for planning for situations which increase in magnitude over time. Provide clear triggers. Easy to build plans which allow expansion of operations Allows planners to adapt operations over time while a crisis evolves

Timeline approach

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ANNEX II Recommended templates for phase 1 and 2 of needs assessment

The first example provides template for Mini scenarios. It may be used for conflict situation where numerous risk factors can draw multiple alternative situation that needs to be reflected and planned upon. The second example provides template for an extended Most likely/middle and worst case scenario. It may be used for slow or sudden onset emergency when the degree to which the situation may change in the future is not too diverse and when response planning needs to be more detailed. Both template are designed to fit into a one page format (A4).

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Name of the scenario

Probability level Impact level

Name of the scenario

X X

Probability level Impact level

X X

Assumptions

Assumptions

Context

Context

Operational constraints

Operational constraints

Priority needs

Priority needs

Name of the scenario

Probability level Impact level

Name of the scenario

X X

Probability level Impact level

X X

Assumptions

Assumptions

Context

Context

Operational constraints

Operational constraints

Priority needs

Priority needs

Name of the scenario

Most likely/middle scenario
Probability level Impact level

Name of the scenario

x x
Worst case scenario
Probability level Impact level

x x

Core assumptions & impact

Assumptions (risks, opportunities and triggering factors) General impact and effects of the crisis (estimates of affected population, and displacement patterns, price rising, market disruption, destruction of crops, etc..) Affected areas Response capacity and gap analysis

Core assumptions & impact

Assumptions (risks, opportunities and triggering factors) General impact and effects of the crisis (estimates of affected population, and displacement patterns, price rising, market disruption, destruction of crops, etc..) Affected areas Response capacity and gap analysis

Population at risk & anticipated duration of the emergency

Affected groups (e.g. IDPs is a population at risk in case of further flooding) and their characteristics (numbers, demographics, specific vulnerable groups, copying mechanisms) How are they affected (e.g. displaced in inadequate shelter, access to basic services, losses of assets) Location (e.g. in public building in urban areas, in camp settlement, etc) Duration of the emergency situation. Time period during which assistance may be required

Population at risk & anticipated duration of the emergency

Affected groups (e.g. IDPs is a population at risk in case of further flooding) and their characteristics (numbers, demographics, specific vulnerable groups, copying mechanisms) How are they affected (e.g. displaced in inadequate shelter, access to basic services, losses of assets) Location (e.g. in public building in urban areas, in camp settlement, etc) Duration of the emergency situation. Time period during which assistance may be required

Operational constraints
Security, access, communication

Operational constraints
Security, access, communication

Priority needs
Most affected groups Most affected areas Sectors requiring immediate assistance Key interventions (including intervention/assessment preparedness measures) Most affected groups Most affected areas

Priority needs

Sectors requiring immediate assistance Key interventions (including intervention/assessment preparedness measures)

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