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KENOSHA

CASINO

A political analysis based on polling conducted on Sept. 15 and 16, 2013


INTRODUCTION On September 15 and 16, 2013, the Washington D.C.-area political polling firm of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, which has experience with survey research on gaming issues across the country, conducted a survey of 500 registered voters in six counties: Waukesha, Washington, Milwaukee, Kenosha, Racine and Ozaukee. The sample yields a margin of error of +/- 4.38 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey also recognized the increased use of cell phones among registered voters, and more than 20 percent of the respondents were surveyed on a cell phone. KEY TAKEAWAYS Of those voters who have a position on the issue, 62 percent favor Governor Walker approving it and 38 percent are opposed. Overall, voters support having Governor Walker approve the Kenosha casino project by a 53-32 percent margin. The rest were undecided or had no opinion. More than 70 percent 73 percent of the people who support the project say they do so because of the 5,000+ direct and indirect jobs it will create. Nearly 70 percent of the respondents think approving the Kenosha project will help Governor Walker meet his public goal of creating 250,000 new jobs. By an astounding 62-14 percent margin, voters in the survey stated clearly they would rather have Wisconsin get the jobs, revenue and increased tourism than Illinois. The survey found 67 percent of the respondents who have a favorable view of the Potawatomi prefer a Kenosha casino with the benefits to Wisconsin rather than an Illinois casino with the benefits to the south. WALKER BACKERS, GOP VOTERS STRONGEST SUPPORTERS OF KENOSHA CASINO AND JOBS By a 62-31 margin, voters who view Governor Walker favorably also believe the Governor should approve Kenosha because of the thousands of new jobs and millions of dollars in new revenue it will generate. Republicans, by a 64-30 margin more than 2-1 also believe that Governor Walker should approve Kenosha because of the jobs and new revenue.

Particularly interesting was the view of Independent voters because of the key role they play in a bitterly divided state. Independents believe, by a 61-32 percent margin, that Governor Walker should approve a new casino in Kenosha because of the jobs. Democrats support approving the project because of the jobs by nearly 20 points, 57-38 percent. Respondents to the survey rated jobs as the top state priority, and not surprisingly, those voters who identified jobs as the no. 1 issue want Governor Walker to approve the project by a 68-26 percent margin, well over 2-1 support. GEOGRAPHIC SUPPORT ACROSS THE BOARD

There was strong support for approving the Kenosha project because of the jobs message in all of the counties surveyed, including Milwaukee County. Racine County topped the list, with 72 percent support for the jobs/Walker message, with Kenosha slightly behind at 69 percent supporting the same message. In Milwaukee County, 56 percent of the respondents favored the Governor approving the Kenosha project after hearing all the arguments. In Waukesha County, support for the jobs/Walker message registered 61 percent. Support in Washington County was 58-27 and support in Ozaukee County was 50-35. Support among African-American voters was 71 percent in favor of Gov. Walker approving the Kenosha casino, and only 25 percent opposing. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

Voters in this poll have totally focused in on the jobs issue and have put every other discussion item to the side. For example, those who identify as Republicans agree 79-12 percent that approving the Kenosha project will help the Governor achieve his goal of 250,000 new jobs in his first term. Additionally, those who give Governor Walker a positive job approval say by a 78-16 percent margin that approving Kenosha will help the Governor achieve his jobs goal. Moreover, independents support the same position by a 69-27 percent margin, as do Democrats by a 60-25 percent margin. WISCONSIN VS. ILLINOIS; PACKERS VS. BEARS Increased tourism in Wisconsin also created a big jump in support, with 78 percent of the people saying that they would prefer a new casino in Kenosha to help increase tourism in Wisconsin. Those voters favorable to Governor Walker prefer Wisconsin benefits over Illinois benefits by a 66-13 margin, and Republicans share that view at a 67-11 percent margin. Independents favor Wisconsin benefits over Illinois benefits by a 66-15 margin, and Democrats support the home state over our neighbors to the south by a 56-17 margin.

MESSAGES THAT WORK; MESSAGES THAT DONT WORK The messages favoring Kenosha exceed the benchmark effectiveness threshold of 60 percent with respondents. Increased tourism from the project tested at 68 percent positive; more permanent jobs in Kenosha tested at 66 percent positive; and creating 5,000 new direct and indirect jobs tested at 64 percent. When looking at messages that moved voters, pro-Kenosha messaging has a strong upper hand. The messages of more tourism in Wisconsin, more permanent jobs and a private sector investment all test above 70 percent in making people more likely or much more likely to support the Governor approving Kenosha. Those messages that arent working belong to Enough!, the shadow group that most believe is linked to the Potawatomi, and the Potawatomi themselves. Opponent messaging focuses on out-of-state interests, past issues for the Menominee, hurting Milwaukee and having enough casinos in the state. None of these messages came close to meeting the benchmark for effectiveness, and all of them rate below 40 percent among survey respondents. POLITICAL DYNAMICS

Governor Walker had a favorable rating in the survey of 51 percent, and the strongest levels of support for the Kenosha casino and the jobs it would create come from pro-Walker supporters and Republicans. This is an opportunity for the Governor to hit a grand slam home run on the jobs issue, reassure his base that he is taking the state in the right direction and show that he is focused on creating new jobs. With the Governors approval rating barely above 50 percent, he stands to gain major political points without a political downside among voters. For example, in the 2010 general election, Governor Walker beat his opponent Tom Barrett 52-48 in Kenosha County, but he lost the county 50.5-49.5 in the recall. In Racine County, Governor Walker beat Barrett in the 2010 general election 56.5 to 43.5, but he dropped to 53-47 in the recall. Democrat Tammy Baldwin beat Republican Tommy Thompson 56-44 in Kenosha County and 52-48 in Racine County. SUMMARY With jobs as the no. 1 issue and an approval rating of 51 percent, this is a huge opportunity for Governor Walker to fortify himself in Kenosha and Racine counties and all of Southeastern Wisconsin. There is overwhelming support for Governor Walker to approve the Kenosha casino because of the jobs it will create, the tourists it will attract from Illinois and the benefits it will bring to Wisconsin, not Illinois. With overwhelming, double-digit support, often more than 2-1, there appears to be little political risk to Governor Walker approving the Kenosha casino. Opposition messages are not taking hold, and those who oppose Kenosha resemble traditional anti-gaming opposition based mostly on moral concerns. This represents a very small minority of the population and is dwarfed by the overwhelming support among all voters especially Republicans, pro-Walker voters and Independents. In what only can be described as a sure show of strength for the jobs message, even 23 percent of the opponents of the Kenosha casino said that the new jobs and new revenues a casino in Kenosha would bring far outweigh any concerns about allowing the casino to be built. Overall, there is overwhelming support for Governor Walker to approve the project.

ADDITIONAL DATA POINTS The increased tourism, the new jobs and the revenue and visitors coming to Wisconsin instead of Illinois are the top messages overall. Those messages are working. Voters surveyed who said Wisconsin was on the right track favor the project 56-29, a 27 percent advantage. Voters who said jobs are the number one issue favor the project 66-25, a 41 percent advantage. Republicans favor the project 57-28 percent, a 29 percent advantage. Independents support the project 54-30, a 24 percent advantage. Females between the ages of 18-64 support the project 55-28, a 27 percent advantage. Males between the ages of 18-64 support the project 55-33, a 22 percent advantage. Democrats support the project 50-34, a 16 percent advantage. Respondents have positive attitudes about both the Menominee and the Potawatomi Tribes, with the Menominee having a 51-6 percent favorable rating and the Potawatomi having a 57-11 positive rating. Those respondents who spoke highly of the Menominee also spoke highly of the Potawatomi, and vice versa. Those with a favorable view of the Potawatomi favor a Kenosha casino over an Illinois casino by a 67-13 percent margin. The benefits of more tourism and attracting people from Illinois and other places was an especially effective message, with 68 percent of the casino supporters saying that makes it more likely that they support the project. Other positive messages a private sector investment, more revenue for Wisconsin, $35 million in additional annual revenue all tested above 61 percent positive. Less than half the voters recognized the Enough! group (57 percent said they never heard of the group). Indeed, among those who new about Enough!, more had an unfavorable impression than a favorable impression about the group. Fully two-thirds of the respondents either had not heard of or had no opinion of Enough!. Most of those that know the group dont like it.