AADT I(2)

Null Hypothesis: AADT has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 13 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-2.244220
-4.030157
-3.444756
-3.147221

0.4609

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(AADT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:41
Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12
Included observations: 130 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

AADT(-1)
D(AADT(-1))
D(AADT(-2))
D(AADT(-3))
D(AADT(-4))
D(AADT(-5))
D(AADT(-6))
D(AADT(-7))
D(AADT(-8))
D(AADT(-9))
D(AADT(-10))
D(AADT(-11))
D(AADT(-12))
D(AADT(-13))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.017009
0.927154
0.008634
0.008588
0.008588
0.008588
0.008588
0.008588
0.008588
0.008588
0.008588
0.008588
-0.647674
0.608077
3001.451
20.09784

0.007579
0.074853
0.095518
0.095492
0.095492
0.095492
0.095492
0.095492
0.095492
0.095492
0.095492
0.095492
0.095490
0.076036
1236.278
9.648578

-2.244220
12.38626
0.090388
0.089934
0.089934
0.089934
0.089934
0.089934
0.089934
0.089934
0.089934
0.089934
-6.782664
7.997188
2.427812
2.082985

0.0267
0.0000
0.9281
0.9285
0.9285
0.9285
0.9285
0.9285
0.9285
0.9285
0.9285
0.9285
0.0000
0.0000
0.0168
0.0395

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.875540
0.859164
708.3456
57199900
-1029.106
53.46398
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

1040.216
1887.507
16.07856
16.43149
16.22197
2.004098

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the
series has unit root.

For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(AADT) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 12 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-2.365230
-4.030157
-3.444756
-3.147221

0.3959

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(AADT,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:48
Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12
Included observations: 130 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(AADT(-1))
D(AADT(-1),2)
D(AADT(-2),2)
D(AADT(-3),2)
D(AADT(-4),2)
D(AADT(-5),2)
D(AADT(-6),2)
D(AADT(-7),2)
D(AADT(-8),2)
D(AADT(-9),2)
D(AADT(-10),2)
D(AADT(-11),2)
D(AADT(-12),2)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.155982
0.077962
0.077735
0.077726
0.077717
0.077709
0.077700
0.077692
0.077683
0.077674
0.077666
0.077657
-0.578352
253.6375
-1.224502

0.065948
0.076252
0.076200
0.076199
0.076198
0.076198
0.076197
0.076196
0.076196
0.076195
0.076194
0.076194
0.076177
173.9689
1.710305

-2.365230
1.022425
1.020142
1.020038
1.019934
1.019831
1.019727
1.019623
1.019519
1.019415
1.019312
1.019208
-7.592257
1.457947
-0.715955

0.0197
0.3087
0.3098
0.3099
0.3099
0.3099
0.3100
0.3100
0.3101
0.3101
0.3102
0.3102
0.0000
0.1476
0.4755

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.457628
0.391600
720.6699
59726993
-1031.916
6.930826
0.000000

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

-8.327885
923.9358
16.10641
16.43728
16.24085
1.943671

For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(AADT,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 11 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-6.839644
-4.030157
-3.444756
-3.147221

0.0000

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(AADT,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:52
Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12
Included observations: 130 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(AADT(-1),2)
D(AADT(-1),3)
D(AADT(-2),3)
D(AADT(-3),3)
D(AADT(-4),3)
D(AADT(-5),3)
D(AADT(-6),3)
D(AADT(-7),3)
D(AADT(-8),3)
D(AADT(-9),3)
D(AADT(-10),3)
D(AADT(-11),3)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-1.661625
0.661234
0.660769
0.660301
0.659828
0.659351
0.658871
0.658386
0.657898
0.657406
0.656909
0.656409
32.42463
-0.562651

0.242940
0.232567
0.221708
0.210297
0.198237
0.185403
0.171620
0.156640
0.140079
0.121290
0.099015
0.070003
149.5664
1.720347

-6.839644
2.843200
2.980352
3.139848
3.328477
3.556318
3.839119
4.203180
4.696637
5.420110
6.634410
9.376855
0.216791
-0.327057

0.0000
0.0053
0.0035
0.0021
0.0012
0.0005
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.8288
0.7442

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.715645
0.683778
734.8028
62632484
-1035.004
22.45699
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

2.42E-13
1306.696
16.13852
16.44733
16.26400
2.001633

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that
the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

MRT I(0)

Null Hypothesis: MRT has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-4.978816
-4.023975
-3.441777
-3.145474

0.0004

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(MRT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:56
Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12
Included observations: 142 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

MRT(-1)
D(MRT(-1))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.469791
-0.412367
3811885.
21583.67

0.094358
0.075920
747036.7
4618.156

-4.978816
-5.431590
5.102675
4.673655

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.505656
0.494909
629051.7
5.46E+13
-2095.440
47.05255
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

58548.71
885118.7
29.56958
29.65284
29.60341
2.036420

The result of the ADF test is that the series does not have unit root. The series is stationary.

Employment I(1)
Null Hypothesis: EMPLOYMENT has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 7 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-3.037094
-4.026942
-3.443201
-3.146309

0.1261

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(EMPLOYMENT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:59
Sample (adjusted): 2001M09 2012M12
Included observations: 136 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

EMPLOYMENT(-1)
D(EMPLOYMENT(-1))
D(EMPLOYMENT(-2))
D(EMPLOYMENT(-3))
D(EMPLOYMENT(-4))
D(EMPLOYMENT(-5))
D(EMPLOYMENT(-6))
D(EMPLOYMENT(-7))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.040643
0.855243
0.024536
-0.748835
0.655671
-0.020894
-0.418042
0.356177
3.367483
0.001974

0.013382
0.079845
0.101983
0.102575
0.107465
0.097389
0.094086
0.073268
1.128290
0.000749

-3.037094
10.71123
0.240590
-7.300339
6.101275
-0.214540
-4.443191
4.861285
2.984591
2.635261

0.0029
0.0000
0.8103
0.0000
0.0000
0.8305
0.0000
0.0000
0.0034
0.0095

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.637978
0.612120
0.282863
10.08143
-16.04235
24.67171
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.007108
0.454179
0.382976
0.597142
0.470007
2.010112

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the
series has unit root.

For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(EMPLOYMENT) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 6 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-3.953357
-4.026942
-3.443201
-3.146309

0.0125

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(EMPLOYMENT,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:01
Sample (adjusted): 2001M09 2012M12
Included observations: 136 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(EMPLOYMENT(-1))
D(EMPLOYMENT(-1),2)
D(EMPLOYMENT(-2),2)
D(EMPLOYMENT(-3),2)
D(EMPLOYMENT(-4),2)
D(EMPLOYMENT(-5),2)
D(EMPLOYMENT(-6),2)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.425078
0.282403
0.280245
-0.496234
0.138861
0.110292
-0.319218
-0.055447
0.000733

0.107523
0.103109
0.102747
0.103154
0.081152
0.074276
0.074553
0.054752
0.000648

-3.953357
2.738892
2.727511
-4.810598
1.711131
1.484893
-4.281762
-1.012702
1.131729

0.0001
0.0071
0.0073
0.0000
0.0895
0.1401
0.0000
0.3131
0.2599

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.492361
0.460384
0.291878
10.81945
-20.84658
15.39721
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

-0.007598
0.397336
0.438920
0.631669
0.517249
1.959738

The result of the ADF test is that the first differenced series does not have unit root. This means that the
series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

GDP_SA I(1)
Null Hypothesis: GDP_SA has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-2.353491
-4.024935
-3.442238
-3.145744

0.4023

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(GDP_SA)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:09
Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12
Included observations: 140 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

GDP_SA(-1)
D(GDP_SA(-1))
D(GDP_SA(-2))
D(GDP_SA(-3))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.050105
-0.156896
-0.169807
0.626694
14343.83
233.6087

0.021290
0.068019
0.067375
0.067023
5424.041
91.50962

-2.353491
-2.306647
-2.520323
9.350383
2.644492
2.552832

0.0201
0.0226
0.0129
0.0000
0.0092
0.0118

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.604576
0.589822
4927.877
3.25E+09
-1385.958
40.97538
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

4183.584
7694.376
19.88512
20.01119
19.93635
1.896022

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the
series has unit root.

For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(GDP_SA) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-4.586012
-4.024935
-3.442238
-3.145744

0.0016

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(GDP_SA,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:11
Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12
Included observations: 140 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(GDP_SA(-1))
D(GDP_SA(-1),2)
D(GDP_SA(-2),2)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.759012
-0.430332
-0.620774
1771.206
19.85422

0.165506
0.117370
0.068093
954.8052
11.36388

-4.586012
-3.666467
-9.116595
1.855044
1.747134

0.0000
0.0004
0.0000
0.0658
0.0829

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.841924
0.837241
5010.034
3.39E+09
-1388.793
179.7554
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

-62.94101
12418.46
19.91133
20.01639
19.95403
1.856544

The result of the ADF test is that the first differenced series does not have unit root. This means that the
series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

HFCE_SA I(1)
Null Hypothesis: HFCE_SA has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-1.229218
-4.024935
-3.442238
-3.145744

0.9001

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(HFCE_SA)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:13
Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12
Included observations: 140 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

HFCE_SA(-1)
D(HFCE_SA(-1))
D(HFCE_SA(-2))
D(HFCE_SA(-3))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.027154
-0.202685
-0.210608
0.616148
6443.106
102.8658

0.022091
0.072268
0.071136
0.070848
4195.321
68.60761

-1.229218
-2.804638
-2.960647
8.696710
1.535784
1.499335

0.2211
0.0058
0.0036
0.0000
0.1269
0.1361

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.621496
0.607372
3515.585
1.66E+09
-1338.680
44.00499
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

3151.593
5610.572
19.20971
19.33578
19.26094
1.850343

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the
series has unit root.

For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(HFCE_SA) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-4.876219
-4.024935
-3.442238
-3.145744

0.0006

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(HFCE_SA,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:15
Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12
Included observations: 140 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(HFCE_SA(-1))
D(HFCE_SA(-1),2)
D(HFCE_SA(-2),2)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.853264
-0.375646
-0.606030
1353.003
19.14704

0.174985
0.123171
0.070502
674.6442
8.285525

-4.876219
-3.049795
-8.595967
2.005506
2.310902

0.0000
0.0028
0.0000
0.0469
0.0224

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.855014
0.850718
3522.232
1.67E+09
-1339.465
199.0307
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

-31.63923
9116.204
19.20664
19.31170
19.24933
1.834113

The result of the ADF test is that the first differenced series does not have unit root. This means that the
series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

OILADJ I(0)
Null Hypothesis: OILADJ has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-3.803596
-4.023975
-3.441777
-3.145474

0.0191

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(OILADJ)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:18
Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12
Included observations: 142 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

OILADJ(-1)
D(OILADJ(-1))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.141013
0.340800
2.674240
0.051505

0.037074
0.080523
1.274376
0.018543

-3.803596
4.232307
2.098471
2.777534

0.0002
0.0000
0.0377
0.0062

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.159484
0.141212
6.439540
5722.539
-463.9295
8.728303
0.000024

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.490128
6.948833
6.590556
6.673819
6.624390
2.000771

The result of the ADF test is that the series does not have unit root. The series is stationary.

WAGEADJ I(0)
Null Hypothesis: WAGEADJ has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-3.310638
-4.023975
-3.441777
-3.145474

0.0687

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(WAGEADJ)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:20
Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12
Included observations: 142 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

WAGEADJ(-1)
D(WAGEADJ(-1))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.103344
0.364640
3.388423
0.016093

0.031216
0.079730
1.408182
0.012947

-3.310638
4.573444
2.406238
1.243009

0.0012
0.0000
0.0174
0.2160

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.162443
0.144235
5.935188
4861.250
-452.3482
8.921635
0.000019

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.359507
6.415895
6.427439
6.510702
6.461274
1.971288

The result of the ADF test is that the series does not have unit root. The series is stationary.

POPULATION I(2)
Null Hypothesis: POPULATION has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 13 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-0.264580
-4.030157
-3.444756
-3.147221

0.9909

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(POPULATION)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:23
Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12
Included observations: 130 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

POPULATION(-1)
D(POPULATION(-1))
D(POPULATION(-2))
D(POPULATION(-3))
D(POPULATION(-4))
D(POPULATION(-5))
D(POPULATION(-6))
D(POPULATION(-7))
D(POPULATION(-8))
D(POPULATION(-9))
D(POPULATION(-10))
D(POPULATION(-11))
D(POPULATION(-12))
D(POPULATION(-13))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.002834
0.967226
0.002728
0.001341
0.001341
0.001341
0.001341
0.001341
0.001341
0.001341
0.001341
0.001341
-0.852270
0.833382
28125.24
52.08628

0.010712
0.081458
0.098044
0.097520
0.097520
0.097520
0.097520
0.097520
0.097520
0.097520
0.097520
0.097520
0.121259
0.115605
104736.6
140.6425

-0.264580
11.87385
0.027823
0.013756
0.013756
0.013756
0.013756
0.013756
0.013756
0.013756
0.013756
0.013756
-7.028490
7.208864
0.268533
0.370345

0.7918
0.0000
0.9779
0.9890
0.9890
0.9890
0.9890
0.9890
0.9890
0.9890
0.9890
0.9890
0.0000
0.0000
0.7888
0.7118

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.905263
0.892798
2927.628
9.77E+08
-1213.578
72.62248
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

16221.79
8941.589
18.91659
19.26952
19.06000
1.999671

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the
series has unit root.

For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(POPULATION) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 12 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-1.536762
-4.030157
-3.444756
-3.147221

0.8119

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(POPULATION,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:25
Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12
Included observations: 130 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(POPULATION(-1))
D(POPULATION(-1),2)
D(POPULATION(-2),2)
D(POPULATION(-3),2)
D(POPULATION(-4),2)
D(POPULATION(-5),2)
D(POPULATION(-6),2)
D(POPULATION(-7),2)
D(POPULATION(-8),2)
D(POPULATION(-9),2)
D(POPULATION(-10),2)
D(POPULATION(-11),2)
D(POPULATION(-12),2)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.084770
0.043333
0.044260
0.044195
0.044131
0.044067
0.044002
0.043938
0.043873
0.043809
0.043744
0.043680
-0.818203
414.6858
14.95365

0.055162
0.074647
0.074277
0.074266
0.074256
0.074245
0.074234
0.074224
0.074213
0.074203
0.074192
0.074182
0.099959
716.9202
9.098767

-1.536762
0.580503
0.595877
0.595095
0.594312
0.593529
0.592745
0.591961
0.591177
0.590392
0.589607
0.588821
-8.185422
0.578427
1.643481

0.1271
0.5627
0.5524
0.5529
0.5535
0.5540
0.5545
0.5550
0.5556
0.5561
0.5566
0.5571
0.0000
0.5641
0.1030

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.449847
0.382872
2915.766
9.78E+08
-1213.618
6.716625
0.000000

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

17.30769
3711.633
18.90182
19.23269
19.03626
1.986822

For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(POPULATION,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 11 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-7.571721
-4.030157
-3.444756
-3.147221

0.0000

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(POPULATION,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:26
Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12
Included observations: 130 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(POPULATION(-1),2)
D(POPULATION(-1),3)
D(POPULATION(-2),3)
D(POPULATION(-3),3)
D(POPULATION(-4),3)
D(POPULATION(-5),3)
D(POPULATION(-6),3)
D(POPULATION(-7),3)
D(POPULATION(-8),3)
D(POPULATION(-9),3)
D(POPULATION(-10),3)
D(POPULATION(-11),3)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-1.874477
0.874674
0.875214
0.875730
0.876220
0.876685
0.877125
0.877540
0.877930
0.878296
0.878636
0.878951
-196.4009
5.793758

0.247563
0.237534
0.227134
0.216258
0.204830
0.192752
0.179890
0.166063
0.151004
0.134298
0.115231
0.092347
600.0246
6.914807

-7.571721
3.682308
3.853298
4.049466
4.277783
4.548259
4.875889
5.284379
5.813952
6.539885
7.625028
9.517900
-0.327321
0.837877

0.0000
0.0004
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.7440
0.4038

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.719281
0.687821
2932.829
9.98E+08
-1214.940
22.86339
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.000000
5249.099
18.90676
19.21557
19.03224
2.030121

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that
the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

STUDENTS I(2)
Null Hypothesis: STUDENTS has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-1.795309
-4.023975
-3.441777
-3.145474

0.7021

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(STUDENTS)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:28
Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12
Included observations: 142 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

STUDENTS(-1)
D(STUDENTS(-1))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.007240
0.903979
4556.426
7.642534

0.004032
0.038970
2608.842
3.029402

-1.795309
23.19679
1.746532
2.522786

0.0748
0.0000
0.0829
0.0128

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.852736
0.849535
712.3197
70021120
-1132.191
266.3651
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

718.7160
1836.358
16.00270
16.08596
16.03653
1.950228

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the
series has unit root.

For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(STUDENTS) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-2.694704
-4.023975
-3.441777
-3.145474

0.2405

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(STUDENTS,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:29
Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12
Included observations: 142 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(STUDENTS(-1))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.104978
-121.6929
3.144118

0.038957
128.0561
1.716205

-2.694704
-0.950309
1.832018

0.0079
0.3436
0.0691

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.051367
0.037718
717.9935
71656536
-1133.831
3.763327
0.025605

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

34.41960
731.9295
16.01170
16.07415
16.03707
1.902792

For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(STUDENTS,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-11.79500
-4.024452
-3.442006
-3.145608

0.0000

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(STUDENTS,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:29
Sample (adjusted): 2001M04 2012M12
Included observations: 141 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(STUDENTS(-1),2)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-1.004099
-21.11028
0.765974

0.085129
127.8400
1.530830

-11.79500
-0.165130
0.500365

0.0000
0.8691
0.6176

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.502025
0.494808
739.1646
75398272
-1129.933
69.56115
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

0.000000
1039.951
16.06997
16.13270
16.09546
1.999936

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that
the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

VEHICLES I(2)
Null Hypothesis: VEHICLES has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-2.727986
-4.023975
-3.441777
-3.145474

0.2271

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(VEHICLES)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:34
Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12
Included observations: 142 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

VEHICLES(-1)
D(VEHICLES(-1))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.010165
0.901566
12892.17
55.31442

0.003726
0.035882
4526.508
20.89022

-2.727986
25.12563
2.848150
2.647862

0.0072
0.0000
0.0051
0.0090

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.831617
0.827956
1997.896
5.51E+08
-1278.639
227.1864
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

5291.455
4816.744
18.06534
18.14860
18.09918
1.998396

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the
series has unit root.

For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(VEHICLES) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-2.683385
-4.023975
-3.441777
-3.145474

0.2451

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(VEHICLES,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:37
Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12
Included observations: 142 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(VEHICLES(-1))
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-0.098492
582.6056
-0.492242

0.036704
366.2104
4.328821

-2.683385
1.590904
-0.113713

0.0082
0.1139
0.9096

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.053711
0.040095
2043.668
5.81E+08
-1282.368
3.944783
0.021560

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

28.56573
2085.913
18.10378
18.16623
18.12916
1.915968

For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(VEHICLES,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level

t-Statistic

Prob.*

-11.80656
-4.024452
-3.442006
-3.145608

0.0000

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(VEHICLES,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:39
Sample (adjusted): 2001M04 2012M12
Included observations: 141 after adjustments
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(VEHICLES(-1),2)
C
@TREND(2001M01)

-1.005005
289.7934
-3.573713

0.085123
364.5586
4.362377

-11.80656
0.794916
-0.819212

0.0000
0.4280
0.4141

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.502514
0.495304
2103.355
6.11E+08
-1277.386
69.69749
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

6.57E-12
2960.723
18.16150
18.22424
18.18700
2.000101

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that
the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.