Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Speakers
Taimur Jamil: Julia Tung: McGinnis Caldwell: Christophe Razaire: Stephen Macy: Olga Filipenko: Parla Ozgediz: Michael McDermitt: Kent Becker:
Wireless Towers Life Insurance Tobacco Settlements Tobacco Litigation Update Legal Issues Intellectual Property Aircraft Small Business Loans Equipment Leases
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Wireless Towers
Why securitization?
Lower cost of funds
Favorable interest rate environment Retire high yield debt, recapitalize balance sheet
Transactions to Date
3 transactions to date raising a total of $2.61 billion in tranched investment and noninvestment grade debt
Global Signal
Global Signal Trust I, Series 2004-I ($418 mil) Global Signal Trust II, Series 2004-II ($290 mil)
Crown Castle
Crown Castle Towers LLC, Series 2005-1 ($1.9 bil)
Wireless Technology
Telephony is the most dominant and prevalent revenue source All other revenue sources considered declining
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Wireless Technology
Seamless integration with Wi-Fi networks Compatibility among different standards such as GSM and CDMA
Wireless Technology
Initial investment of $200,000 - $300,000 by owner On-going expenses minimal With 2 tenants cash flows are Ebitda positive
Basic One Tower Model Number of Tenants on Tower Revenue (~ $1,600 per month) Direct Operatign Cost Tower Gross Profit Gross Profit Margin SG&A EBITDA EBITDA Margin Maintenance Capex Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Margin 1 19,200 13,000 6,200 32.3% 7,300 (1,100) -5.7% (4,000) (5,100) -26.6% 2 38,400 13,260 25,140 65.5% 7,300 17,840 46.5% (4,000) 13,840 36.0% 3 57,600 13,525 44,075 76.5% 7,300 36,775 63.8% (4,000) 32,775 56.9%
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Ascertain the sustainable level of cash flow over the life of the debt
Evaluate firms operating performance Comparable public company and market data
Determine the net present value of the future flows And an appropriate advance rate based on LTV and Debt Service Coverage Ratio
Like other asset back transactions liability structure also modeled
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Revenue
Correlated to the number of tenants per tower
Industry average is 2.5 tenants This is a function of the location of the towers, population density and management strategy
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Revenue
Tenant attrition
Minimal since service providers optimize their networks for a particular geographic area Barriers to entry are high, since it is difficult to build new structures due to zoning restrictions Associated moving costs (~$30,000 to $50,000) far outweigh rent escalator increments
Tenant concentration
Majority of revenue derived from few tenants
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Revenue
Impact of mergers
Each service provider operates on a specific frequency spectrum Equipment is not dual use and cannot be consolidated Merger benefits realized through consolidation of other support functions (marketing, etc) Wireless tower revenues not impacted; Demand for more bandwidth will fuel request for space
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Expenses
Direct operating expenses
Industry Ebitda margins range from 40% to 75% Correlated to managements expertise and size of the company
Expenses
Management fee
For the rated transaction a management fee equal to 10% of revenue was used Must be sufficient enough to retain another manager if the existing manager needs to be replaced
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Discount rates
Range of 10% to 13% - reflects our view on the riskiness of the cash flows
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Advance rate
LTV for different rated tranches
Liability structure must hold under all valuation stresses
Ratings
Aaa Aa2 A2 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 and Below
LTV Range
35% - 46% 43% - 53% 51% - 60% 59% - 65% 62% - 67% 66% - 70% 72% - 75% > 76%
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Bells and whistles just like any structured transaction Environmental reviews on all sites No pending litigation Clear record from the FAA and FCC pertaining to non-compliant activities For the rated transactions 70% of revenue derived from sites where an estoppels had been obtained Appropriate reserves
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Site acquisition account Property release provisions Property substitution Issuance of additional notes
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Life Insurance
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Life Settlements
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Individual generally over age 65 sells life insurance policy at a discount of face amount Insured has shortened life expectancy (LE) compared to general population (e.g. LE of 2-12 years) Insured typically does not have a single impairment Face amount range of $250,000 to $10 million Funding for purchase provided through warehouse facility or institutional funding
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Several warehouse facilities outstanding not rated by Moodys One term transaction rated by Moodys
Legacy Benefits 2004-1 (2/25/04)
Class A ($61.5 million) rated A1 Class B ($8.5 million) rated Baa2
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Legal/Regulatory Life Settlement Company/Servicer Credit of insurance companies and other entities Timing of cash flows
Mortality analysis Pool analysis Analysis of policies Structure
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What is the companys background? What is the companys origination policy? Is the servicer a viable entity? Is there a viable back-up servicer? Does the servicer/back-up have the appropriate licenses to originate and service?
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Risks in a Life Settlement Deal: Credit of Insurance Companies and Other Entities
Rating of insurance policy providers Concentration of insurance policy providers Rating of any other related entities, e.g. annuity provider, supplemental insurance provider, etc.
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Mortality Analysis
Base mortality table for male/female and smoker/non-smoker (e.g. 2001 VBT table) Adjustment to mortality supplied by medical underwriter Verification of mortality expectations from a third party
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Pool Analysis
Number of lives in the pool Relative size of policies Diversification of ailments Geographic diversification (regulatory concern)
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Analysis of policies
Type of insurance policy
universal/variable/whole/term
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Structure
How will premium/interest payments be covered given the uncertain timing of the death benefits? Possible solutions: reserve account, annuities, policy to cover life extension risk, etc. Will a sufficient number of policies have paid out by the legal final?
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New life insurance policy is purchased on a healthy senior over the age of 70 Securitization proceeds are used to purchase fixed annuities to cover interest and premium payments and additional coverage Residual goes to insureds designation (typically charity or family member)
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Annuity Payments
Annuity payments and premiums/bond interest are perfectly matched no mortality analysis Insurers/reinsurers and annuity companies have very different views of mortality of healthy seniors Arbitrage will narrow as more data appears
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Moodys has rated six transactions to date from one issuer Issuance has stopped because of proposed legislation
crack down on abuses in certain life insurance contracts involving tax-exempt organizations 25% excise tax on death benefits (Bush administrations proposed FY 2006 budget) 100% excise tax on acquisition costs of any interest in an applicable insurance contract (Grassley-Baucus Bill)
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Moodys has reviewed several proposals in which life policies are purchased by individuals in exchange for a cash payment or a small portion of the death benefit So far no deal has closed because of legal concerns
wet ink policies Insurable interest Fraud and contestability
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Tobacco Settlements
Introduction
Revenue under Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) Tobacco Legal Fees Revenue Associated with Tobacco Quotas
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The MSA was entered into in November 1998 by 46 states, DC, Puerto Rico, U.S. territories and four major US Tobacco Companies MSA ended litigation between the states and the Tobacco Companies for smoking related injuries in exchange for payments to be made to the states in perpetuity
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Ratings: Currently Baa1 to Ba1 on senior tranches (mostly Baa3), all on review with direction uncertain
Subordinate tranches rated mostly Ba2
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Outside counsel for a specific state must agree to have fees set by negotiation with the tobacco companies, subject to an aggregate $1.25 billion cap or by an arbitration panel Arbitrated fees are subject to national cap of $125 million per quarter and $500 million per annum Each of tobacco companies is severally obligated for a portion of quarterly payments corresponding to market share, adjusted annually
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Future tobacco class action lawyers may elect to have their fees determined by arbitration and included under the quarterly and annual caps above This inclusion would result in the extension of securitized legal fees. This is an opt-in extension risk
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The Fair and Equitable Tobacco Reform Act of 2004 (the Buyout Legislation) eliminates the current federal tobacco price support and quota programs Secretary of Agriculture, through Commodity Credit Corporation, enters into a contract with each tobacco quota holder in exchange for the termination of tobacco marketing quotas and price supports $10 billion paid over 10 years
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None
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Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2008
861,000,000
2017 2018
8,139,000,000 861,000,000 9,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 $9 Billion Annual Payments Continued in Perpetuity
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These Base Payments are subject to adjustments. The three primary adjustments are described below:
Inflation Adjustment - The Base Payments are to be increased each year by the greater of 3% or the actual Consumer Price Index Volume Adjustment - The Base Payments are to be increased or decreased according to the amount of cigarette shipments relative to the amount of shipments in 1997 (475.7 billion cigarettes)
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MSA Payments
35 30 25
$ Billions
Base Payments After Inflation After Inflation and Consumption (1) After Inflation, Consumption (1) and Previously Settled States
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Loss of market share (Currently, Original Manufacturers ~85%, Subsequent Manufacturers ~7%, NPMs ~8%) Independent consultant makes a significant factor determination Model Statute is not being diligently enforced
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Enforcement of escrow statutes Repeal of the allocable share release loophole Equity assessments Monitoring NPMs via annual certifications
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Challenges the MSA, Model Statute and NYs Escrow Statute Claims that MSA violates the Sherman Antitrust Act as an output cartel that protects OPMs by penalizing SPMs for exceeding original market shares and penalizing NPMs through Escrow Statutes
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Lawsuit dismissed May 15, 2002 based on theory of governmental immunity Second Circuit Court of Appeals reversed trial court decision in January 2004 District Court denied a preliminary injunction against enforcement of Escrow Statute in September 2004 but grants preliminary injunction against the repeal of allocable share. Plaintiffs appeal In June 2005, appellate court affirms denial of preliminary injunction
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Appellate court did not really give guidance on the law, which would have provided grounds for motion for summary judgment Discovery proceedings continue in the District Court. No trial date set
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DOJ Manhattan Supreme Court decision on the diligent enforcement issue Freedom Holdings and denial of appeal of preliminary injunction
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Bankruptcy remoteness Executory contract and approval of debtors decision to assume MSA Enforceability of MSA and Model Statute
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Our View
3 threats remain:
Star Scientific could be added to list depending on upcoming ruling If these threats are eliminated, litigation risk could reach lowest level in a decade Resolution on 3 cases not likely before early 2006
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3 Threats
Case DOJ Could lead to court-driven volume reductions At worst, not before 2009. No risk of bankrupting bonding because federal court. PRICE / MILES Full judgment bankrupting for PMUSA if under the form of cash payment. At worst, no payment before 2006. Reduced, bearable judgment would have less effect on risk. RJR and B & W in Madison County. Still no bond cap in Illinois. ENGLE Odds of verdict affirmation very low. Bonding protects PMUSA and Lorillard thru US Supreme Court, not RJR and B & W. Could lead to court-driven volume reductions At worst, not before 2009. Bonding could eliminate upstreaming of dividends to obligors. In what way is it a risk for MSA bonds? In what way is it a risk for corporate bonds?
Full judgment bankrupting if under the form of cash payment. At worst, no payment before 2006. Reduced bearable judgment would have less effect on risk. Altria could survive PMUSA bankruptcy.
Odds of verdict affirmation very low. Bonding protects PMUSA and Lorillard thru US Supreme Court, not RJR and B & W.
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In state courts, no largescale case scheduled for trial in a state without a bond cap In federal courts, no largescale case scheduled for trial
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Romero
Price fixing case. Class has been certified. NM Court of Appeals affirmed certification in February 2005. Defendants seeking review of class certification by NM Supreme Court. "Lights" nationwide class action. Hearing on certification in August 2005. Trial unlikely to start at scheduled date of November 2005.
Schwab
Aspinall Massachusetts
Bonding not required, but can be Class certification has been affirmed by Mass. Supreme Court. imposed by court at its discretion (although this is rare)
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Howard
Star Scientific
Federal
RJR Tobacco Co. Up to 100% of judgment Patent infringement case. Awaiting ruling on issue of inequitable conduct.
Vending Machine
Federal (Tennessee)
PMUSA
Up to 100% of judgment Claim: Violation of Robinson - Patman Act. Trial scheduled for July 2005. Number of plaintiffs limited to 10. We believe worst-case damages would be low, but we could change our view with further analysis.
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Price / Miles
Illinois
Bonding in place
Missouri
Curtis
Minnesota
No verdict yet
$50 million for MSA signatories Healthcare cost recovery and affiliates case brought by hospitals. Trial scheduled to start in January 2006. $150 million "Lights" Claim. Will go to trial unless successful motion for summary judgment or settlement. "Lights" Claim. Will go to trial unless successful motion for summary judgment or settlement.
No verdict yet
Marrone
Ohio
PMUSA
No verdict yet
$50 million
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Case Collora
Jurisdiction Missouri
Comments "Lights" Claim. Will go to trial unless successful motion for summary judgment or settlement. Price-fixing claim. Class certification not appealable.
Smith
Kansas
British Columbia
PMUSA British Columbia Provincial court Philip Morris Intl RJR Tobacco (federally RJR Tobacco appointed) Holdings
No verdict yet
It appears that no bonding Healthcare cost recovery would be required. case brought by hospitals. Awaiting review of receivability of claim by Canadian Supreme Court.
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Legal Issues
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Basic concern: securities-issuing entity remains legally unaffected by bankruptcy of other deal participants
Deal sponsor is greatest worry
Often the (ultimate) parent of the issuer
Other affiliates
Sister companies or subsidiaries
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Legal Theories
Recharacterization of sale as financing Substantive consolidation of issuer with bankrupt affiliate Voidable preference Fraudulent conveyance
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Uniqueness of deals means adverse legal decision does not necessarily affect any sizeable industry
Easier to restrict decision to its facts Judges less leery of upsetting established markets
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Deal-specific Issues
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MSA issues discussed already Separability of Fee Agreements from MSA Compliance with professional guidelines Challenges to size of fee awards
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Example: Aircraft
Foreign jurisdictions
Maintenance of security interests Ability to repossess aircraft under defaulted leases
May need first to foreclose on stock of aircraftowning company, then to begin repossession effort
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Intellectual Property
Intellectual Property
What has been securitized to date?
Film Receivables Trademark Licensing Franchise Fees Patent Licensing Royalties Music Royalties
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Film Receivables
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Assets Include
The entire output of a studio The tangible film materials as well as rights to
Release, distribute and exhibit Receive gross receipts from agreements the studio already has with distributors Enter into new distribution agreements
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Types of Transactions
Slate Financing
Future in the can films of a studio $900M Village Roadshow (2003) and $300M Melrose Investors (2004)
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Advancing against Ultimates of each movie after theatrical release Reduced exposure to the film performance risk
Credit Protection
Over-collateralization depending on advance rate True sale from studio (expenses from reserve account) Amortization triggers tied to accuracy of ultimate projections, asset and expense coverage
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Portfolio of future films of a studio Films production costs and limited portion of studio overhead are financed Exposure to film performance risk
Credit Protection
Subordination of distribution expenses Diversity by the portfolio of films and minimum number of films to be included Triggers tied to asset and debt service coverage as well as financial condition of the studio
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Future transactions
Slate financing with distribution costs on the top of the waterfall Partnership type agreements Include films from multiple studios in one deal
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Trademark Licensing
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Assets Include
The trademark Royalties generated from the sale of licensed branded products Could include sales through
3rd Party License Wholesale Retail
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All current and future trademarks Royalties generated by the licensing of those trademarks to 3rd parties and parent company
Credit Protection
Over-collateralization and reserve Triggers capturing excess cash when royalty streams fall below certain levels IPIFS Guarantee Corp. arranged LOC for the benefit of one class of the notes
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The history and longevity of the trademark Competition and the trademark positioning Projected cash flows from wholesale and retail sales The current licenses in place including credit quality of the 3rd party licensees, minimum payments, and potential renewals The manager/servicer of the trademark Reliance of the trademark on a single person for artistic direction Potential market for the trademark in distressed situations
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Franchise Fees
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Intellectual property of the concept Franchise fees paid by franchisee for the right to use name and concept Additional revenues might include upfront amounts paid when new stores are opened If franchisor provides certain specific materials to franchisees, then the profits on these materials might also be included
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Strength of the concept Industry overview Reason for securitization Historical data on the performance Role and strength of franchisor/servicer Need for back-up servicer Legal concerns (core assets, true sale, nonconsolidation, fraudulent conveyance)
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Recent Activity
In 2005, downgraded Athletes Foot Asset-Backed Notes to Ba2 following parent companys bankruptcy filing
Closing of company-owned stores True sale not challenged in bankruptcy
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Assets include
Rights to receive royalties and contingent pay rights for a pool of pharmaceutical products
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Performance of the drugs in the pool Diversity in product application and uses of the collateral Credit quality of licensees responsible for paying the royalties Risk of the drug recall by FDA Servicer
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Aircraft
Aircraft Type
Regional Jets
Revenue Stream
Finance Leases
Commercial Jets
Operating Leases
Corporate Jets
Loans
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RJs: small capacity jets, usually under a 100 seats Cashflow Stream: Finance leases
Series of rental payments over the useful life of the aircraft Lessee is entitled to acquire the title of the aircraft Lessee is responsible for maintenance, taxes and insurance of the aircraft
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Manufacturer
McDonnell Douglas BaE Systems Fairchild Aerospace Fokker Aircraft Saab
Seats
60-100 85-100 32-70 25/78 50
NEW GENERATION
Type
CRJ100/200/440 CRJ700 CRJ900 ERJ135/140/145 ERJ170/175
Manufacturer
Bombardier Bombardier Bombardier Embraer Embraer
Seats
44-50 70 90 50-70 70
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Rating Approach
Three different perspectives: Portfolio, Lessee, Servicer
Portfolio:
Asset Type: mainly 50-70 seat new generation Age Current Market Values and Base Values
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Rating Approach
Lessee:
Credit Quality- low single B Correlation of default probabilities within the regional operators in the portfolio Geographical/Jurisdictional Concentration
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Rating Approach
Servicer: Usually the manufacturer itself
Review of servicers total owned and managed portfolio Marketability Reach: Lessee Connections Historical Repossession/Remarketing experience, Strategy on Repossessions Sale Values
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Quantitative Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation Simulated Variables:
Lease payments upon default of the lessee Lease Rate Factor: Lease Rate/ Value of the aircraft Default of the lessees, correlations incorporated Aircraft Value curve
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Historical Issuance
Three private, synthetic transactions
Insurance protection
Outlook
Possibly one or two transactions this year
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2005 Outlook
Slow pick-up in the securitizations through acquisitions of servicers Repack proposals
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Corporate Jets:
Loans to high net-worth individuals to finance acquisition of corporate jets
Major Players: Banks and Finance Companies such as GE, AFG, CIT, Textron, GMAC
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Historical Activity:
Textron Transactions (1997, 2000, 2001) GE Transactions (2003, 2004)
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Quantitative Analysis
Shift from Static Pool Analysis to Monte Carlo Simulation The variables include:
Depreciated appraised value of the aircraft Obligor defaults and prepayments Economic recessions Repossession costs, repossession timing and finally upon default the sale value of the corporate aircraft
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Issuance History
Slow Growth in 1990s Consolidation Phase in Early 2000s Return To Growth Mid-2000s Average Deal Sizes Also Larger
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$3,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$500,000,000
$0
20 05 Y TD 19 96 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04
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# Issuers
# Repeat Issuers
10
0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005YTD
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Credit Performance By Downgrade Activity Excellent TMS Business Loan Trust 1997-1 FNBNE (1998)/ FIB (1999 & 2000) Total of $365 Million Across 7 Deals Defaults: FIB Sub/Mezz Classes, < $8MM UPB
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1990s
The Money Store
2000s
Lehman Small Business Finance (fmr. div. CNL) GECC Small Business & Middle Market divs. BLX (subsid. Allied Capital) BayView Financial
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Types Of Loans
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Personal Guarantees Are Common Underwriting DSCR: Business, Real Estate, or Combined Business/ Personal FICO Sometimes Obtained As Supporting Factor
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Fixed or Floating Interest Rate Fully Amortizing or Balloon Owner Occupied or 3rd Party Tenanted Special Purpose or General Purpose Property
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Issuer Differentiation
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Pro Rata Structure most common Credit Tranched Aaa to A/Baa $150MM to $750MM Excess Spread Available for Enhancement
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Rating Issues
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Equipment Leases
Public (Bil)
$3.6 $5.1 $6.8 $5.3 $6.9
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Exit of smaller leasing companies Acquisitions by larger companies less reliant on securitization
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Ag & Construction equipment Office equipment: computers, copiers, faxes Manufacturing equipment Average balance: $25,000-$250,000 for ag & construction; $5,000-$50,000 for office equipment
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Structures
Pro-rata principal pay deals dominate, but more sequential pay deals coming to market Emergency principal structure shuts off interest to subordinate classes if subs are undercollateralized
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Stronger liquidity of obligors due to stronger economy Telecom, manufacturers, high tech stronger sectors Tighter controls implemented by servicers in collections and workout functions Improved recoveries on repos due to stronger demand for used equipment Upgrades in ag & construction sector (CNH, Deere, CAT)
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Backup maps servicing systems Recalculates servicing reports Servicing transfer triggers based on deal performance, financial covenants, or servicers other existing debt facilities
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Outlook
Modest increase in issuance as equipment needs grow due to improving economy 144A market should grow as small leasing companies enter the market Credit performance should remain stable in 2005
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www.moodys.com
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