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Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com Issue #11


M30.09.2013

Economic

EEEEEForeign Direct Investment


Growth rate of FDIcompared to previious year (%)

7%
40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

In the second quarter of 2013, the growth rate of real GDP was 1.5%. This indicator is less than the
corresponding indicator in 2012 (8.2%), as well as than the same indicator in the first quarter of 2013 (2.4%).

It should be noted that in this period the growth rate of FDI,in comparison with the corresponding indicator in the previous year, was positive (1.5%) after the first quarter of 2012. There are changes in the main source of FDI and in its distribution to economic sectors.

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV 2013 I II

Growth rate of Foreign Direct Investment (left axis)

Growth rate of real GDP

Foreign Direct Investments by Economic Sectors (II quarter 2013)


6% 17%
Transports and communications Construction

Foreign Direct Investments by Economic Sectors (2012)


Energy sector

4% 28%

Energy sector

20%
Manufacturing

31%

Manufacturing Financial sector

18% 5% 8% 18%

Transports and communications Construction Other sectors

20% 25%

Financial sector Other sectors

In the second quarter of 2013, the structure of economic sectors financed by foreign direct investment is the same as the general tendency of 2012, but the share of these sectors in total FDI is different.
In the second quarter of 2013, the largest shares of FDI were allocated in the following five economic sectors: energy sector (28%), manufacturing (25%), transports and communication (20%), construction (17%) and financial sector (6%).

It should be noted that foreign direct investment in restaurant and hotel sector was negative with 5.4% share in total FDI.
Reduction of the authorized capital of company or reduction the share of nonresidents, having a loss, distribution of dividends, payment of the loan and accrued interest can be considered as possible implication of negative FDI in restaurant and hotel sector. Although the reasons are ambiguous given the information above.

Growth rate of real GDP (%)

In the second quarter of 2013, foreign direct investment increased in comparison with the corresponding indicator in 2012 (1.5%), as well as in comparison with the same indicator in the first quarter of 2013 (12.7%).

Foreign Direct Investment and real GDP growth rate


80% 60%

9% 8%

Outlook and Indicators


www.pmcg-i.com

Economic

Issue #11
M30.09.2013
Foreign Direct Investments by Countries (2012) Germany

EEForeign Direct Investment


Foreign Direct Investment by Countries (II quarter 2013 )

8% 10% 16% 28% 34% 52%

Luxemburg China Netherland Turkey Azerbaijan USA

48%

United Kingdom Turkey

5% 6% 7% 9% 10% 15%

Internationla organization Azerbaijan Luxemburg Other

-48%

Other

In the second quarter of 2013 the structure of foreign direct investment by countries is different from the general tendency of 2012.
In the second quarter of 2013 five major investor countries were: Luxemburg (52%), China (34%), Netherland (28%), Turkey (16%) and Azerbaijan (10%). It should be noted that in the second quarter of 2013 several countries have negative FDI in Georgia. Cyprus (59%), United Kingdom (20%) and Japan (20%) have the major shares in nega-

tive FDI.

In the second quarter of 2013 the share of Negative FDI in total FDI was 80%.
Basic Economic Indicators
Nominal GDP in current prices (mln USD)
Per capita GDP (USD) GDP real growth, percent Consumer Price Index Foreign Direct Investment (USD) Unemployment Rate External Public Debt (mln USD) Poverty Level

2011
14 438 3 230.7 7.20% 8,5% 1 117

2012
15829.7* 3519.6* 6.1%* -0.9%* 865.2*

I12*
3388.3 753.4
6.70%

II12*
3918.3 871.2
8.20%

III12*
4156.1 924.1
7.50%

IV12*
4367.6

I 13*
3487.6

II 13*
3929.9

971.1
2.80%

777.8
2.40%

876.5
1.5%

Contact Information

PMCG Research
269.4
-

219.4
-

195.4
-

181

226.2

232.4

Tamar Jugheli
E-mail: t.jugheli@pmcg.ge T: (+995) 2 921171 www.pmcg-i.com

15.10% 4200.5

15% 4357.1

E-mail: research@pmcg.ge

9.20%

9.7%*

Source:

National Statistics Office of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia, National Bank of Georgia

*projected

-2-