RKGLOBALANALYSIS

TheAnatomyoftheArabSpringanditsunintended Consequences
Vol.76 August21,2013

...There are two methods of curing the mischiefs of faction: the one, by removing its causes; the other, by controlling its effects. There are again two methods of removing the causes of faction: the one, by destroying the liberty which is essential to its existence; the other, by giving to every citizen the same opinions, the same passions, and the same interests.
The Federalist Papers- Federalist No. 10 James Madison 1751-1836

Revolutions are inherently unstable. If societies are lucky (a term broadly used here) enough to have sensible and foresight-minded leaders along with the agreed objectives of the movement, revolutions might establish a logical social order based on the existing local conditions. If not, revolutions lead to civil wars; especially if century old traditions are at stake and many are more interested in settling historical scores than the real objective/s of the revolution. This is the current situation in Egypt and that of the Arab world. What joyfully began as an Arab Spring has turned into a bloody rage filled with death and terror. Street killings either in Cairo or in Damascus show that the objective is no longer to participate in elections or start institutional building process, but a complete elimination of the other side- whoever that side happens to be. You throw in outside actors who pursue their own agenda in mass confusion and chaos and you get a perfect recipe of disaster of historic proportion. All of this combined is a bad news for a liberal political and economic order which I understood was supposed to be one of the objectives of the Arab Spring. The sense in Egypt is now this: If elected governments and their leaders (no matter how much they are detested in their own nation or in the West) can be brought down, what does it say about the democratic process? In Egypts, the Brotherhood inspires no admiration; at least for the majority. Theirs is the politics of everything but inclusiveness. President Morsi ruled with an iron fist and strengthened the suspicion among many liberal Egyptians regarding the true motives of the Brotherhood. In many ways, he did not practice a shred of

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democratic principle. But how does a military coup, along with the kidnapping of an elected President, and widespread, indiscriminate arrests and torture be considered the resumption of democratic practice? The slaughter on the streets of Cairo will surely radicalize many in their approach to elected democracy and perhaps setback any hope for a democratic and liberal development in the region. Egypt occupies an impressive place in the Arab world and what happens in Egypt has huge implications across the Arab world. Politics in Egypt today is a zero-sum game: either the military wins, or the Brotherhood does. That is a path with many obstacles. The current situation is just the beginning of a much larger dangerous game. That was not part of a liberal political script written under the banner of the Arab spring. The Syrian situation is another giant disaster in the region. Syria has become a place for a proxy war between regional powers along with the United States and Russia. The Syrian army is gradually advancing, crushing any hopes the West might have had to topple the regime. President Obamas warning to Syria and Assad were happily ignored. Now the country is in the midst of its worst civil war. Once again, that was not part of a liberal political script written under the banner of the Arab spring. Libya is also facing its own potential turmoil. With unemployment soaring, frustration is building across the country. The Muslim Brotherhood and National Forces Alliance have proved unable to work together. The promised constitution has failed to materialise, aimed disputes about the power regions should wield and the role of Sharia Law. Conventional wisdom suggested that the post-Gaddafi Libya will be ready to march on the path of freedom and democracy (I was not sure about that wisdom and had written about it). But that has not happened and less likely will happen. That was not part of a liberal political script written under the banner of the Arab spring. While the region burns, Leaders and diplomats in the West are not only confused but have run up against the limits of their influence in the region. Red lines have been crossed; the defiant tone regarding the nuclear weapons is the norm; the autocratic arm of an absolute ruler kills without a mercy and social and political divisions result in mass casualties and bloodshed. As of now, the West and especially the United States has lost whatever goodwill it had after President Obama was elected. Any threat or ultimatum from the US will be politely ignored as was the case in Egypt recently. At this point, what is clear is that unrest will intensify in Egypt; Syria will continue to burn until Assad has eliminated all the elements of his opposition

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and Iran will pursue its nuclear agenda with full force. The region is no mood to be courted by the outsiders to bring some political reconciliation and compromise especially by the United States. Once again, that was not a part of a political liberal script written under the banner of the Arab spring.

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