Volcanoes Case Studies

DC Mount St. Helens, USA (18 May 1980) Closely monitored volcano Prediction (Prior to 1980 eruption) Little infrastructure was available initially to monitor the mountain or warn of an eruption. A magnitude 4.2 earthquake signaled the reawakening of the volcano after 123 years Rising magma pushed the volcanos north flank outward 5 feet per day Volcanic activity is carefully monitored by the U. S. Geological Survey began issuing warnings to people living in the area Tiltmeters installed on the volcano's north side o The nearly flat crater floor adjacent to the lava dome provided an excellent "platform" on which to measure a change in inclination of the ground Correlation spectrometer measures ultraviolet radiation as an indicator of the sulfur dioxide content of gases ejected from Mount St. Helens Swelling bulge on the northern flank Eruption An earthquake caused the entire weakened north face to slide away, suddenly exposing the partly molten, gas- and steam-rich rock in the volcano to lower pressure. The rock responded by exploding a hot mix of lava and pulverized older rock toward Spirit Lake so fast that it overtook the avalanching north face. Impacts Landslides triggered by the collapse of the bulge on the northern flank Lateral blasts and Pyroclastic flows o Collapse of northern flank suddenly exposed pent-up gas and gas-rich magma underneath to much lower pressure, causing gases to expand rapidly, resulting in huge lateral explosion o When burning flow encountered water in its path, they were immediately turned into steam o Searing gas and pyroclastic flows rapidly melted glacial ice and snow, mixing together to form huge mudflows

Mudflows o Generated as a result of snow melt on the volcano itself, and deposition of tephra in streams surrounding the mountain o Destroyed 27 bridges, 185 miles of roads, 15 miles of railway and about 200 homes Damage survey o Most victims died from inhalation of hot volcanic gases and other related injuries o Extensive damage to land and property $1.1 billion o Unemployment in the immediate region of Mount St. Helens rose tenfold in the weeks immediately following the eruption o Tourism affected with cancellation or postponing of conventions, meetings and social gatherings But due to the reawakening of Mt St Helens, the area regained its appeal and visitor centers are opened for firsthand views

Mitigation Prior to the eruption, USGS scientists convinced local authorities to close Mount St. Helens to the general public and to maintain the closure in spite of pressure to re-open it saved thousands of lives (57 deaths) Large-scale volcanic hazard map drawn up and released Access to further areas at risk closed and residents evacuated Responses A supplemental appropriation of $951 million for disaster relief was voted by Congress, of which the largest share went to the Small Business Administration, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency 1.8 million m of ash removed from highways and airports in Washington Granted funding for mental health programs to assist residents suffering stress and emotional problems Mt St Helens National Volcanic Monument set up in 1982, preserving sites affected by volcanic events for scientific studies, education, recreation and first-hand views Ongoing monitoring o After the catastrophic eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980, a volcanic dome began to grow in the crater. Growth of this dome occurred sporadically, and sometimes small eruptions occurred from the dome. After several years of

dedicated monitoring, scientists are now able to predict with increasing accuracy eruptions from this dome.

LDC Nevado Del Ruiz, Colombia (Nov 13, 1985) Unprepared; no mitigation measures in place; Damage largely resultant of lahar Eruption Series of minor earthquakes and steam explosions Pumice fragments and ash from side of vent Lava erupted from summit crater accompanied by heavy rainfall Hot ash and rocks transported by pyroclastic flows of clouds of gas and ash Rapid snow melting causing floods to sweep loose debris and soil to create hot lahars down the mountain Impacts Melted water mixed with pyroclastic fragments to form lahars o 40 meters thick and traveled at velocities as fast as 50 kilometers per hour More than 23,000 people were killed in Armero when lahars swept down from the erupting Nevado del Ruiz volcano 5 000 people were injured, 8 000 people homeless Estimated cost: $1000m, 1/5 of Colombias Gross National Product Prediction and Mitigation Few measures were taken Minor earthquakes and steam eruptions for 51 weeks prior to eruption, but not enough to convince authorities that the volcano was a real threat No equipment or expertise to monitor the volcano Money obtained from the Unified Nations to help map areas thought to be at greatest risk, but only 10 copies distributed Scientists did not know precisely when the eruption would occur, and the authorities would not take costly preventative measures without clear warnings of imminent danger No emergency plans were made to evacuate people Responses Short-term o 3 days after the disaster the government still had no plan of action. o Access to the disaster-stricken areas was cut off by destroyed bridges and buried roads. This greatly delayed rescuers getting there quickly. Long-term

o Colombia established a plan for the warning and evacuation of threatened areas in the event of another eruption of Nevado del Ruiz o A public education campaign was also under way in early 1986 o Schools educated students about volcanic hazards in general and, specifically, what to do if Nevado del Ruiz erupted o Hazard maps in the form of posters were distributed for towns at risk to illustrate appropriate protective action in response to hearing sirens such as to evacuate to high ground o Evacuation route markers were painted on buildings in towns at risk to illustrate proper evacuation from danger areas if sirens were heard Mt St Helens vs Nevado Del Ruiz (Prepared vs Unprepared) The eruption at Nevado Del Ruiz ejected a very small amount of magma - only about 3 percent of that erupted at Mount St. Helens. Yet, this tiny eruption generated high-volume debris flows that killed more than 23,000 people. The physical damage could not have been prevented, but the casualties could have been much lower. The destruction was limited in area because the lahars were directed by topography, even in the flatted areas of the lowland slopes. Timely warning could have allowed an evacuation in a very few hours, because safer higher ground was not far away, and it could have saved literally thousands of lives.

Montserrat, prediction

Spain (June 25, 1997)

Successful long term

Prediction Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) set up to monitor developments of the Soufriere Hills Volcano o Despite sophisticated monitoring equipment it still remains very difficult to pinpoint exactly when an eruption will happen. o From an early stage the MVO predicted increased volcanic activity and the dangers associated with them o Continuous monitoring of the volcano is vital in the scientist role to obtain accurate data Continuous monitoring of the volcano enabled the scientists to predict that an eruption would be likely that day and evacuations of controlled areas within the exclusion zone were conducted successfully 14 seismometers set up close to the volcano to record ground movements 24 hours a day GPS system and 5 electronic tiltmeters measuring ground deformation and lava dome growth Eruption The eruption of the Soufrire Hills Volcano began on 18 July 1995 Nearly a year later, the volcano forced the islanders to evacuate the capital, Plymouth, situated only 4 km from the volcano. The government set up a risk map to ensure people were a safe distance away from the dangerous pyroclastic flows that had so far destroyed areas to the south and east of the volcano. On the 25 June 1997, at about 1 o'clock in the afternoon, the Soufrire Hill Volcano erupted catastrophically. The dome of the volcano collapsed, sending 5 million cubic metres of hot rocks and gases down the side of the volcano towards the north of the island. o Prior to 25th June 1997, the volcano had gone through a period of dome building. Eventually the dome became unstable and collapsed, causing huge pyroclastic flows. Impacts Death and injuries o 19 people killed by pyroclastic flows and surges, but they were all in the Exclusion Zone which was supposed to be evacuated except for authorized people

o 7 people suffered severe burns due to walking on hot ash deposits, inhalation injuries and burns to the nostrils and mouth Damage to homes o Entire villages (eg. Farms and Trants) buried by block and ash flow deposits o Houses were partially buried or burned down by the intense heat. Damage to infrastructure o W.H. Bramble Airport closed as debris from pyroclastic flow came within 50m of it Destruction and loss of farmlands o A total of at least 4 square kilometres of land was covered by the deposits from the pyroclastic flows and surges o Land in the south of the island and close to the volcano had been used for farming, even though it was in the Exclusion Zone There was not enough food to go around, especially to feed the evacuees Damage to the economy o Lack of customers due to evacuation led to closure of several businesses and banks o Total tourist arrivals declined by 24% o Exports dropped by 40%

Mitigation Evacuation plans devised both for removal to the north and off the island o The capital, Plymouth, and southern areas of the island were evacuated in April 1996 British Government funded temporary infrastructure in north of island that included a jetty, roads, water, electricity and shelters o 1366 evacuees moved into temporary shelters in the north of the island o Development was extremely slow and housing conditions was not up to standards o British Government reluctant to build permanent housing with improved conditions as that would require greater funding Voluntary evacuation scheme to allow evacuees to move to the UK for 2 years

Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) devised a risk management zone map.

Response Emergency Support Unit activated and search and rescue teams deployed quickly to pick up survivors by helicopter or vehicle Specialist medical support ensured treatment for burns victims. MVO issued advice to the public about ash fall The British Government finally agreed to fund a crisis programme of action (56 million) and to support development in the north of the island. Other Caribbean islands and organisations such as CDERA and the Red Cross also gave aid to Montserrat Rely upon an annual aid budget of 16.4 million from the UKs Department for International Development Mount Pinatubo, Philippines (June 15, 1991) Successful short term prediction Prediction On-site monitoring Remote sensing tools to monitor rainfall and ground vibration Seismometers Aerial survey showed that magma intrusion was very near surface as evidenced by a dome forming near its summit Timely forecasts of eruption by scientists from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and the U.S. Geological Survey enabled people living near the volcano to evacuate to safer distances, saving at least tens of thousands of lives. Eruption More than 5b m of ash and pyroclastic debris ejected Eruption columns 18km wide at the base and heights reaching 30km above volcanos vent Typhoon Yunya struck on the same day, mixed with the ash deposits and caused massive lahars Effects Short term o Over 800 people killed, mostly by roofs collapsing under weight of accumulated wet ash o Roads and communications damaged or destroyed by pyroclastic flows and lahars

Cost $3.8b pesos / $700 million 1.2 million people lost their homes Commercial and industrial operations temporarily suspended 650 000 workers forced out of work due to destruction of their farms, shops, factories and work places o Ninoy Aquino International Airport closed for 4 days o Public buildings converted into evacuation centers o o o o Long term o Poor sanitation and spread of illnesses, damage of healthcare facilities led to soaring death rates o Arable land rendered infertile, destroying livelihoods of farmers o Education disrupted due to destruction of schools o Hampered economic development o Eruption injected large amount of aerosols into the stratosphere, causing global temperatures to drop by 0.5C

Mitigation Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and the Pinatubo Lahar Hazards Taskforce (PLHT) began to provide general public education about lahars Instruction of news media provided in the course of day-to-day interviews and field trips Education posters, videos, leaflets, booklet prepared on lahars Residents with mental preparation about how to react in times of crisis 75,000 people were evacuated due to accurate predictions Responses Evacuations to mainly Manila and Quezon City Volcanic alerts issued daily stating the alert level and associated danger area, and information announced in major national and local newspapers, radio and television stations, non-governmental organisations Long and short term aid organized especially from the Red Cross and the United States

Mount Unzen, Japan (June 3, 1991) Successful warning and evacuation; lahar mitigation Eruption Dormant volcano which erupted in May 1991 in Japan Volcano averaged 35 flows a day but flows were small yet destructive June 3, much larger dome collapsed and explosion produced a large pyroclastic flow and ash cloud Lava domes continued to build up towards east flank of volcano and toward the end of July, an elongated dome was created which generated 10 small pyroclastic flows daily on average 1992, pyroclastic flows covered larger section of volcano and lahars became more common After 4 years of volcanic hazard, total of 15 000 people evacuated, 43 people died and $2 billion worth of property destroyed Prediction and Response When shallow earthquakes began to occur just beneath the crater on May 13, a lava eruption was predicted, and it began on a small scale on May 15 Scientists paid attention towards the monitoring of the domes active margin to predict which part of the volcano was at risk from pyroclastic flows o Successful prediction in 1993, when officials ordered residents to evacuate the area near the Nakao River valley Unzen Scientific Drilling Project is a joint project undertaken by the Japan Ministry of Education, Culture, Science, Sports and Technology and the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program o Drill a hole towards the conduit of Unzen, geologists can then sample the conduit and improve interpretation of premonitory signals Monitoring hot springs o Monitor concentration of carbonic acid which usually increases gradually before an eruption is about to occur but decreases as the summit crater beings to open Mitigation Efficient warning system and strategic evacuation plan o More than 1200 people were evacuated on May 19 o 12,000 people had been evacuated by June 10, and remained so through September Minimise damage from lahars

o 3 sediment basins lined with interlocking concrete blocks o Series of discontinuous dikes along both sides of main channel along the Mizunashi River o Trap sediment and channel lahar flows Mount Etna, Sicily Successful mitigation; inadequate response Causes Subduction of African plate beneath Eurasian plate Active composite or stratovolcano Frequent basaltic lava flows representing a primary source of volcanic hazard Clouds of pyroclastic gas and ash from two vents Lava runs down volcano side in two separate flows Ash continued to fall on city of Catonia Impacts (2002 eruption) Earthquakes damaged more than 100 homes Holiday homes used for displaced people 1000 people evacuated from nearby towns, schools shut Airport at Catonia closed for 4 days Ski resorts destroyed as well as a restaurant Hundreds of acres of forest destroyed Prediction The Catania Section of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisicia e Vulcanologia (INGV) monitored volcanoes for 20 years with a permanent network of remote sensors Data continuously recorded by permanent stations Geochemical monitoring programme Mitigation Construction of Earth barriers Unsuccessful as they were hastily constructed Explosives were detonated near the source of lava flow Successful in redirecting flow Dams of soil and volcanic rock put up Successful in diverting flow and protecting tourist space Heavy earth-moving equipment was brought in to block and divert lava flow Successful but there are losses in agriculture and tourism Response Medical ship sent by government for emergencies

Rebuild property from salvaged materials or relocation 5.6 m in immediate assistance and tax breaks for villagers