RBI for Offshore Pipelines Challenges in Theory and Practice

Dr. Gundula Stadie-Frohbs / Dr. Felix Weise

www.futureship.net

RBI for Offshore Pipelines Challenges in Theory and Practice

Short Presentation of GL Introduction / Basics Risk based method Example: Offshore pipeline
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GL is global service provider in maritime and energy market (oil & gas, renewables)
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800

430

184 Industrial 35 Maritime 149

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2006 2007 2008 2009E

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Introduction / Basics

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Reasons for leakage

Nat. Hazard 0% Material - steel defect 8% Material - weld defects 6% Structural 0% Corrosion 38% Other 14% Anchor 16% Impact 18%

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Introduction: What is risk?

Risk - understanding

What goes wrong?

How often?

What are the consequences?

Scenario (e.g. fire, oil spill, collision, etc.)

Probability (e.g. 1 in 1000 years, 1 in 100 years, etc.)

Measure of damages (e.g. 1M damage, 3 injuries, etc.)

Risk = probability of failure x consequence of failure

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Risk management - covering life cycle of the asset

Conceptual design Detailed design Construction Commissioning Operation & Maintenance Life time extension Decommissioning

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Risk method Example

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GALIOM for Pipelines

Risk = PoF CoF
Design Index Third Party Index

Consequence of a failure (CoF) shall be assessed carefully! Risk is the combination of PoF and CoF
Economical consequence Environmental impact

Probability of failure PoFIndex

Corrosion Index Operation Index

Probability of failure (PoF) can often be estimated! Main technical aspects are considered within GALIOM.

Location Class Operation Pressure

Consequence of failure
Human safety Reputation and political consequence

Contents type

Spill volume

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Probability of failure | Two track concept Semi - quantitative approach

Index procedure leads to an overview of the current status of the pipeline
Design Corrosion

Probability of Failure

Remaining life time is directly related to time dependent effects

Design ...

Remaining Life Time Index Procedure

Corrosion ... Pressure Free Span

Fatigue Crossing

Operation

Third Party

PoF obtained by worst case result of both assessment methods

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Risk matrix & Inspection intervals increasing decreasing

Results used to generate inspection strategy which considers cost and safety aspects.

Fixed inspection intervals (e.g. by owner or authority requirements) can be considered as well according to experience of measurements.
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Case Study Two flaws, same flaw geometry and different consequences
Production Platform
Probability of Failure Consequence Negligible Medium Serious

Flaw A Flaw B
Consequence

Risk development for two equivalent corrosion flaws, with same corrosion growth, however, different consequence levels

High

Low

Negligible Low Medium High Serious

B B B

A A A

Pipeline with different consequence areas

1 0.8 0.6 a/t 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 c/D 0.6 0.8 1

2012 2000 2008 2004

Flaw assessment according to RSTRENG

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Flaw B Flaw A

Example: Pipeline

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Pipeline
Outer diameter 32 in Wall thickness 30 mm Operating pressure 200 bar Medium Crude oil Age 29 Jahre

Changing risk
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Evaluation of design index

100 80 60 40 20 0

More precise information about the influences of different topics on the individual phases of the life cycle, here: Design with respect to failure probability.
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Assessment of remaining life time - example

80.00 70.00 Remaining life time [years] 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Fatigue Corrosion Design

Overview of current life time considering different influence factors

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Displaying risk in GALIOM

Risk displayed in a 5 x 5 risk matrix

Risk
What Facility, Group or Equipment has the Highest Risk
Cons eque nce Negli gible Low Medi um High Serio us Failure Probability Negligi ble Low Mediu m High Serious

1 2

Risk for different pipeline segement

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Conclusions
Support for evaluation of global pipeline integrity Shows unknown topics, e.g. missing soil analysis Ranking Focus on areas with higher failure probability (condition based maintenance) and higher consequences (risk based maintenance / inspection)

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What are the Advantages of Performing RBI

Distinct knowledge of Deterioration Modes and Mechanisms that are affecting equipment Look Less More Focus Reduction in Shutdown Inspections in favour of On-Stream Methodologies Shorter Shutdowns Greater Availability Develop Run to Failure methodologies for Low Consequence Equipment Reduced Maintenance Cost Saving Reduction in Unforeseen Repairs Greater Availability Ability to identify Risk Mitigation Measures to reduce either the Consequence of Failure or Probability of Failure Improved Safety

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Thanks for your attention!

Contact details: Dr. Gundula Stadie-Frohbs Tel. : 0049 40 36149 991 Email: gsf@gl-group.com

www.futureship.net