Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Naval Arms Race in the Asia-
Pacific Region?
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 6, 2009

[client name withheld]

QUESTION: Recently there has been information relating to plans to strengthen military
power in countries like Vietnam buys Russia submarines, Australia spends 72 billion USD.,
etc). Do you think Asia is on the brink of a new arm race? Is it perilous for the region? BBC
Vietnamese quoted Hong Kong economic newspaper as saying that the US is taking an
equivocal policy to Southeast Asia region that says “interfere but not go deep” in order to get
benefits from different sides. Is the newspaper right?
ANSWER: The maritime strategic environment in Asia Pacific is entering a new period of
change and uncertainty. There are a number of factors that contribute to this assessment but
two stand out in particular. The first is the rise of China as an economic and military power.
The second is the impact of globalization which promotes economic growth and an increased
need to ensure secure sources of energy, oil and LNG, which are overwhelmingly transported
by sea.
China is developing the military capacity to extend its military power beyond the so-called first
island chain that includes Taiwan to the second island chain including, the U.S. forward
military presence on Guam. In other words, China is developing the military capacity to
confront the United States should a conflict arise over Taiwan, and further, China is
developing the capacity for anti-access/sea denial operations that threaten U.S. Carrier Task
Forces.
China’s military modernization has prompted regional states to respond to China’s power
projection capabilities by developing a capacity for anti-access/sea-denial capabilities of their
own. This has taken the form of acquiring conventional submarines. Singapore has led the
way and has been followed by Indonesia and Malaysia. Recent reports indicate that Vietnam
is poised to sign a contract to procure six Kilo class conventional submarines from Russia.
Australia has also announced plans to acquire 12 very modern conventional submarines in
the future.
The classical definition of an arms race includes a straining of resources as two nations
compete to match the power of each other. There is no evidence that a classical arms race is
taking place. No nation is attempting to match the growth rate of China’s military spending.
But what is occurring is an action-reaction arms cycle where regional states respond to the
introduction of new military technologies and capabilities by acquiring offsetting capabilities of
their own.
U.S. strategy is to prevent the rise of any hegemonic power that would dominate the Asia-
Pacific Region. The U.S. will do this by maintaining appropriate military strength and build up
the capacity of allies and strategic partners to interact with U.S. forces. The United States has
also indicated that it will use its military power to ensure safety of navigation by keeping sea
lanes of communication (SLOCs) open. But the United States has declared it will not take
sides in maritime territorial disputes. The United States military is required by law to maintain
the capacity to defend Taiwan. The United States constantly pressures China to be more
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transparent about its rising defence expenditure and growing capabilities. But at the same
time the United States needs to cooperate with China, especially on economic issues, but
also in military affairs, in order to maintain international order and security.