FORECAST BY DOUBLE EXPONEN

When a trend exists, the forecasting technique must consider the trend as well as the serie
be below (with an increasing trend) or above (with a decreasing trend) actual demand. Dou
average and the trend.

Constant for smoothing averages: 0.36

Constant for smoothing trend: 0.5

t D(t) A(t) CT(t) T(t) F(t)

period actual avg.of series current trend avg.trend forecast

1 200 200.00 200.00 50.00 200.00

2 250 250.00 50.00 50.00 250.00
3 175 255.00 5.00 27.50 300.00
4 186 247.76 -7.24 10.13 282.50
5 225 246.05 -1.71 4.21 257.89
6 285 262.77 16.72 10.46 250.26
7 305 284.67 21.90 16.18 273.23
8 190 260.94 -23.72 -3.77 300.85
9 210 240.19 -20.75 -12.26 257.17
10 245 234.07 -6.12 -9.19 227.93
11 185 210.53 -23.55 -16.37 224.89
12 254 215.70 5.17 -5.60 194.16
13 135 183.07 -32.63 -19.12 210.10
14 189 172.97 -10.10 -14.61 163.95
15 240 187.75 14.78 0.09 158.36
16 261 214.18 26.43 13.26 187.84
17 275 244.56 30.38 21.82 227.43
18 210 246.08 1.52 11.67 266.38
19 165 224.36 -21.72 -5.02 257.75
20 211 216.34 -8.03 -6.53 219.34
21 202 207.00 -9.34 -7.93 209.81
22 197 198.32 -8.68 -8.30 199.07
23 192 190.73 -7.59 -7.95 190.02
24 187 184.30 -6.43 -7.19 182.79
25 183 179.23 -5.07 -6.13 177.11
26 178 174.87 -4.37 -5.25 173.10
27 173 170.84 -4.03 -4.64 169.62
28 400 250.37 79.53 37.45 166.20
29 163 242.88 -7.49 14.98 287.81
30 185 231.63 -11.25 1.86 257.86
31 245 237.64 6.01 3.94 233.49
32 185 221.21 -16.43 -6.25 241.57
33 254 229.01 7.81 0.78 214.96
34 135 195.67 -33.35 -16.28 229.79
35 189 182.85 -12.82 -14.55 179.39
36 240 194.11 11.26 -1.65 168.29
37 261 217.14 23.03 10.69 192.46
38 275 244.81 27.67 19.18 227.83
39 210 244.56 -0.25 9.46 263.99
40 165 221.97 -22.58 -6.56 254.02
41 211 213.82 -8.15 -7.35 215.41
42 202 204.86 -8.96 -8.16 206.47
43 197 196.81 -8.05 -8.10 196.70
44 192 189.89 -6.92 -7.51 188.70
45 187 184.04 -5.85 -6.68 182.38
46 183 179.39 -4.65 -5.67 177.36
47 178 175.27 -4.13 -4.90 173.73
48 173 171.32 -3.95 -4.42 170.37
49 400 250.81 79.50 37.54 166.89
50 163 243.22 -7.59 14.97 288.35
51 185 231.85 -11.38 1.80 258.20
52 192 218.65 -13.19 -5.70 233.64
53 187 203.61 -15.04 -10.37 212.95
54 183 189.55 -14.06 -12.21 193.24
55 178 177.58 -11.98 -12.09 177.34
56 173 168.19 -9.39 -10.74 165.48
57 400 244.77 76.58 32.92 157.45
58 163 236.40 -8.37 12.27 277.68
59 185 225.75 -10.65 0.81 248.67
60 155 200.80 -24.95 -12.07 226.56
LE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
end as well as the series average ignoring the trend will cause the forecast to always
nd) actual demand. Double exponential smoothing smooths (averages) both the series
erage and the trend.

Forecast m periods ahead

Forecast period 75 using the data up to period 60

Forecasted value: by F(t+m) = A(t) + m.T(t) 19.78

Data - Forecast Chart

400

375
350

325

300 Observed
Unit

275 Data
250 Forecast
225

200
175

150

125
12 34567891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
0123 4567890123 45678901234 56789012345 67890123456 7890

Time
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 Follow the steps to enable your Double Exponential Smoothin
>> Your Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast is ready to use. Following steps are for online use.
1) Visit the site below:
http://www.spreadsheetweb.com/getting_started.htm
You will only need the username and password to create your Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast.
2) Visit the site below:
http://trial.spreadsheetweb.com/spreadsheetweb/
Login to page with your new account information.
3) Click "Add Web Application" to upload this file. Your Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast will be created
You can simply use the Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast from that link or place it on your website.
>> Your Double Exponential Smoothing Forecast will look like:
http://www1.spreadsheetweb.com/SpreadSheetWeb/Output.aspx?ApplicationId=677b7a9d-0e80-43bd-a1c
>> In order to see more online applications created with PSW you can check the link below:
http://www.spreadsheetweb.com/demos.htm

Copyright (c) 2009 Pagos, Inc. http://www.pagos.com/

ential Smoothing Forecast.
for online use.

Smoothing Forecast.

g Forecast will be created automatically.

place it on your website.

677b7a9d-0e80-43bd-a1c4-1a9358ac2e35