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TERM PAPER

ON
CASE RELATED TO CAPITAL BUDGETING AND PROBABILTY DISTRIBUTION

CASE ANALYSIS
OF UNIVERSITY CITY

LOUNGE

United International University School of Business Spring, 2011

Submitted to:
Md. Enamul Haque Assistant Professor United International University

Prepared by:
Suzona Asad S.M. Sakib Mahim Iqbal Jagirdar Ismat Jerin Chetona 111 081 149 111 081 205 111 081 166 111 082

Date of submission: April 26, 2011

Introductory Part

Segment Objectives
This section will focus on:

Letter of Transmittal Acknowledgement Executive Summary Table of contents

April 26, 2011 Md. Enamul Haque Assistant Professor Course Name: Corporate Finance Course Code # BUS 2112 United International University Dhanmondi, Dhaka. Dear Sir Subject: Submission of Report on Case Study Related to Capital Budgeting and Probability Distribution With due respect and humble submission, we student of BBA, spring 2011 are submitted the report on Case Study Related to Capital Budgeting and Probability Distribution. It gives us immense pleasure to inform you that we have completed this report under your kind hearted direct supervision. Now we have placed this report before you for your approval. We hope that our report will satisfy you.

Sincerely yours, ___________ Suzona Asad ID # 111081149 (On the behalf of)

Acknowledgement
At first we would like to thank almighty God for helping us all the way, and then Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA) for having such a wonderful and unique course, through which we get chance to know about the implication of Corporate Finance. We would like to give special thanks to our honorable instructor Md. Enamul Haque for giving us the great chance to report on this kind of important topic. And he has helped us from time to time on different issues regarding the case study & preparation of report. During the preparation of the report, we had some problem that had been erased out with his propound lecture and assistance. Without his cooperation and guideline this report would have been an incomplete one We would like to thanks the United International University for helping us all the time and in all the way. And we would like to convey our thanks to our one of the faculties Moshtafa Monzur Hasan who has helped us a lot to solve this problem. And without his support, we will not be able to solve this case. We would like to convey our thanks to one of our faculties Jinea Akhter who has assisted us in every possible ways. We also appreciate the unity, spontaneous workability and successful team spirit of our fellow group members/friends. Without cooperation and support from each other, it would not be possible to prepare a resourceful report.

Table on Contents

Serial no. 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4.1 1.4.2 1.4.3 2

Parts Executive summary INTRODUCTION Objective Scope Limitation Methodology Types and Sources of Data Data Collection Plan Data Analysis Plan 2. WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING? History Global Warming and Bangladesh at a Glance What is Green House Effect

Page no. VII 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

02 03 05

Causes of Rising Carbon 05 Dioxide 06 09 12

2.5 2.6 2.7

Effects of Global Warming Causes of Global Warming Impact of Global Warming on Bangladesh

2.8

Effect of global warming on soil and land resources in Bangladesh Consequences Warming of Global

14

2.9

15

2.10

What we can do to reduce 16 global warming 17 Solutions and Technology 19 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMEDATION 21 REFERENCE

2.11 3.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

University City Lounge is a lounge that is located in the college community of Claremont, Pennsylvania, about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh. The case study is related to the University City Lounge, which is operated by Richard James. In this case, it has been seen that the owner of the lounge has two mutually exclusive projects, Conventional set and Video-projector. These two projects are having different initial investment and different and different returns. We have shown various financial analyses for the selection of any one of them. The objective of this report is to know about the real scenario of financial condition, to know how to implement different financial tools. For completion of this report, we have used only secondary data. And there are some limitations in this report that is mainly because of the limitation of information. But we have tried to give our 100% effort to prepare this report.

Report Preliminaries

Segment Objectives
This section will focus on:

Origin of the report Scope of the report Rationale of the study Objectives of the study Methodology of the study Limitation of the study

1.1: Origin of the report:


This report has been undertaken as a part of course requirement of Cases in Financial Decision Making. Our course instructor Md. Enamul Haque has assigned us the case on University City Lounge) so as to gain some practical knowledge about Capital budgeting Decision. The study really provides us an opportunity to explore and confront the reality about issues relating to Capital Budgeting Decision.

1.2: Scope of the study:


The report intends to analyze the case of University City Lounge. The report is prepared with a view to provide a brief but complete idea about Capital Budgeting Decision. For the analysis of the case different tools of Finance have been applied. These are namely Net Present Value (NPV) approach, Probability analysis, Profitability Index, Standard deviation sensitivity analysis and simulation analysis.

1.3: Rationale of the study:


The case is a part of our term paper. We believe that such an intensive study will help us in many ways in the future. This will surely enhance our analytical ability. In the case analysis we apply various tools and techniques of finance. This present study enables us to gather knowledge Capital Budgeting Decision. The knowledge of the study will help, when we will work in our professional career as a financial analyst. So, we thanked to our course teacher to arrange this study.

1.4: Objectives of the study:

10

The primary objective of this case report is to analyze the critical issues and pros and cons of University City Lounge. The objectives can be more specifically stated as:

To To To To

get an idea about the Capital Budgeting Decision enable to apply the concepts in financial decision making. know how to link various complex situation. increase our analytical ability.

Apart from this, the case study also has following objectives: Identification of the problem or problems Identification of the alternative courses of action Critical Analysis; both qualitative and quantitative Provide Recommendation

1.5: Methodology:
This case report is an analytical report in nature. Data Collection: The organization part of the report is mainly based on the secondary data provided in the case. Assumptions: As there was no scope for acquiring data from outside sources, some realistic assumptions have been considered for missing information. Data Analysis: We have analyzed the data from the perspective of Qualitative Judgments: In the qualitative analysis, we provide theoretical aspect of Budgeting Decision. We conduct economy analysis, Industry analysis, and Company analysis. In company analysis we put emphasis on SWOT analysis. Apart from this we also analyze financial history of the company, business risk, and financial risk. Quantitative Appraisal: The data was analyzed with simple financial tools like Net Present Value (NPV) approach, profitability index. In quantitative analysis, we deal with the problem of the case and analyze some focusing point of the case.

11

Language: Abstract terminology and technical terms have been avoided as much as possible so that any person can understand the theme of the case report.

1.6: Limitations of the study:


The limitations of the study are defined by the extensive of the facts covered by the study and those that left out. However, these limitations can be presented in the following lines: The first limitation is the lack of intellectual thought and analytical ability to make it the most perfect one. The analysis is based on some limited data, so it has become difficult to draw a complete figure. Lacking of detailed information on many aspects. Use of case based data only is another limitation of the study. We lack the advanced statistical, mathematical and analytical skills for the complex analysis of the report. We had to complete the analysis within a very short span of time, which restricted our analysis.

12

Conceptual framework

Segment Objectives
This section will focus on:
Capital Budgeting Different investment decisions: Techniques of capital budgeting and their acceptance criteria Different situation analysis

13

Introduction

Segment Objectives
This section will focus on:
Overview of University City Lounge Formation of University City Lounge Investment Strategy of University City Lounge Problem Statement Alternative courses of actions

14

Introduction:
Capital budgeting is one of the most important tasks faced by financial managers. A firms capital budgeting decisions define its strategic direction, because moves into new products, services, or markets must be preceded by capital expenditures. Capital budgeting is very obviously a vital activity in business. The results of capital budgeting decisions continue for many years. Vast sums of money can be easily wasted if the investment turns out to be wrong or uneconomic. In the case University City Lounge, we have applied various tools of capital budgeting to determine whether the owner of University City Lounge invest in the Conventional set or in the Video projector.

3.1: University City Lounge: A close Overview

University City Lounge a small corporation in the college community of Claremont, Pennsylvania. It is primarily a university-oriented city. University City Lounge (UCL) operate by Richard James founded five years ago in down town section of the city. University City Lounge (UCL) growth opportunity is 10 percent each year. James owns all the stocks of UCL. The firm has no outstanding debt. University City Lounge (UCL) mainly appealing to students in general and young adults. The room of the business contains ten tables that seat four persons each and five large booths capacity is six 15

persons each. Also there is a separate game room. There are five tables that seats 20 customers. The third area within UCL is situated to the right of the central drinking space. Also there is a bar house in the T.V. lounge and right now UCL T.V. is not working. So this time James going for two mutually exclusive investment project. (1) A conventional color set with a 25-inch screen or (2) a product called video-projector, which is offers a 24-square-foot (6 feet high by 4 feet wide). James tax matters handle by Danial Ruggins. He and James began to develop the data necessary for making an effective choice between the two televisions. First project costs $700 fixed and other inventory costs is $200. Second project $3800 including set-up costs. James would add 6 tables at a unit cost of $30 and 24 chairs at unit costs of $10 and additional assets costs is $300. The assets of UCL were always depreciated using the straight-line method. They estimated UCL will get 218 customers daily and their seating factor is 1.5 times. James operates UCL on all 365 days of the year. Last year, UCL earned $24,371 after taxes, sales were $358,000, Cost of goods sold was $187,592 and last year their tax was 29.1 percent. Now current tax rate is 34 percent. UCL is expecting adding one extra customer in their lounge which increased their annual sales $1643. UCL is thinking two different types of probability in terms of their project. James and Ruggins are now considering one of the projects from two.

3.4: Investment Strategy:

The owner of University City Lounge has decided that they are having two mutually exclusive projects. First one is the conventional set and second one is the video projector.

3.6: Alternative courses of actions:


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We can determine whether the investment should made in Conventional set or in Video projector by using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The quantitative approaches include: Net Present Value (NPV) approaches Profitability Index Probability distribution Standard deviation

Current Investment opportunity: University City Lounge

Segment Objectives
This section will focus on:

Revenues and Expenses Initial results and investment considerations


17

4.1: University City Lounge: Base Case Analysis


University City Lounge has two options for investment, Conventional set or video projector. The initial cost for Conventional set is $(700+200) = $900 and the initial cost for Video projector is ($3800+6*30+24*10+300) = $ 4520. the return is different for the two projects.

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Analytical Part
Segment Objectives
For complete, rational and prudent study, we divide the analysis into two broad classes:

Analysis

Qualitative Analysis Economy Analysis Industry Analysis Company Analysis Risk Analysis

Quantitative Analysis Risk Analysis Capital Budgeting Probability distribution

19

Qualitative Analysis

Segment Objectives
This section will focus on:

Economy Analysis Industry Analysis Company Analysis

Economy Analysis:
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The city has never faced depression. The city has diversified and sound industrial base. Other restaurant has the capability to buy a high priced video projector.
5.3: Company Analysis:

SWOT Analysis
Strengths High Sales volume: High growth rate Location Environment Sales in last year was proximate $24371 The growth of the net profit is 10% Located in a sound industrial based area. The lounge is having three separate environments, dining area, game room and lounge. Weaknesses Its located about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh One owner

Distance from city Sole proprietorship

Economical situation Good personal relationship

Opportunities The city gas never faced depression. The owner has a good personal relationship with several local bankers. 21

Increased tax amount Uncertainties:

Threats The tax rate was 29%, but now its go to be 34% There is an uncertainty that whether the video projector or the conventional set will be profitable.

6.1: Risk analysis:


As it is mentioned, Gas industry is highly risky investment arena. In the Bailey prospect there are many uncertainties. The uncertainties include: Uncertainty about cost of initial investment. Uncertainty about customers preference Uncertainty about sales amount. Uncertainty about demand of Lounge.

Due to the existence of the above uncertainties, it can be said that University City Lounge is going to invest in a risky projects. In our analysis throughout the report we have considered different scenarios. This includes: For Conventional set, the optimistic situation has been determined. For conventional set, the demand has been decided based on probability distribution For Video projector, the seating-factor has been considered. For video projector, the probability distribution had been used. All the situations have been determined by using various discounting rates, because the discounting rate is not certain here. Risk Analysis- Base case: After Tax cash flow:

22

6.2: Analysis of Bailey Prospect:


For the accept / reject decision we have used following techniques: Net present value (NPV) Internal rate of Return (IRR) Modified IRR Payback period method Profitability Index

Apart from this we have used: Sensitivity analysis Scenario analysis Simulation analysis

6.2.: Capital Prospect:

budgeting

technique:

Analysis

of

Bailey

The capital budgeting techniques are shown in the appendix.

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Project Financing

Segment Objectives
This section will focus on:

Financing the project Hamada equation Optimum capital structure Analysis of bailey prospect

24

7.1: Financing the project:


To raise fund for business expansion or for other purposes the company can issue equity or debt to private or public market or it can take term loan from any financial institution. But it is important to determine the best source of fund for the company. This depends on many variables like economic condition, interest rates, companys financial condition, industrys condition, and many other potential macro economic factors. Debt has some advantages. Interest on debt is tax deductible and it lowers the effective cost of debt. However, debt has negative sides as well. The higher the proportion of debt, the more risky the firm is. Due to high riskyness the debt holder and equity holder demand for additional risk premium. This increases the cost of firm. Again if the firm fails to pay fixed payment on debt, it may results in the bankruptcy of the firm. So, it is vital for the firm to set the optimal combination of debt and equity.

In this case, we have assumed that the firm will either use its own capital money, or it will use 50% debt and 50% equity.

Calculation of risk free rate and required rate of return: in the case, the after tax risk-free rate is 5% it has been assumed that the cost of debt is 10% and the required rate of capital is 12%, we have assumed that the risk-premium is 7% when the risk is comparatively lower and the risk premium is 10% when the risk is comparatively higher.

Required rate of return calculation: According to Capital Asset Pricing Model: r= RF+ (RM-RF) Here, risk-free rate=5% =1 (Considering average capital market) Risk premium is 7% r = 0.05+ 1*0.07 25

=12%

Comparative qualitative analysis of Conventional set and Video projector. Conventional set is colorful and 25 inch. Video projector is 24 square feet and having clear image. Video projector is more costly than that of the conventional set. There is possibility that the conventional set can be bought by other lounges.

Main part:
Considering 12% required rate of return, and 34% tax-rate, NPV of Conventionalset: (when the situation is optimistic)

out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation

Year-1 700 200 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140

Year-2 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140

Year-3 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140

Year-4 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140

Year-5 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140

26

Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is

47.6

47.6

47.6

47.6

47.6

47.6*A 5%,5years+516.0078*A12%,5years 2066.18912 900 1166.18912 2.29576569

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is profitability index

Required rate of return calculation: According to Capital Asset Pricing Model: r= RF+ (RM-RF) Here, risk-free rate=5% =1 (Considering average capital market) Risk premium is 10% r = 0.05+ 1*0.10 =15%

r wacc = S/B+S (rs) + B/B+S (rb) (1-T) = * 0.12+ * 0.10 (1-0.34) =9.3%

The risk of the Lounge may increase, that time the required rate of return may increase. So considering higher risk, we have assumed that the required rate of return is 15%
year-1 out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield 700 200 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6 Year-2 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6 year-3 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6 year-4 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6 year-5 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

27

For 5 years the inflow is

47.6*A 5%,5years+516.0078*A15%,5years 1935.821 900 1035.821

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is

profitability index

2.150912222

Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

year-1 out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is 700 200 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

year-2 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

year-3 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

year-4 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

year-5 0 0 2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

47.6*A 5%, 5years+516.0078*A9.3%, 5years 2197.64726 900 1297.64726

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is

profitability index

2.441830294

Considering 5% required rate of return: (Considering only risk-free rate)

Conventional year-1 out flow out flow 700 200

Year-2 0 0

year-3 0 0

year-4 0 0

year-5 0 0

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before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is

2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

2.142 1.41372 516.0078 140 47.6

47.6*A 5%, 5years+516.0078*A5%, 5years 2440.126822 900 1540.126822

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is

profitability index

2.711252024

Standard deviation: Mean= (2066.189117+ 1935.821+ 2197.647265+ 2440.126822)/4


=2159.946051

= 215.2092

Cumulative probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

Profitability index 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686 2.295765686

Profitability index based on probability distribution 0.229576569 0.459153137 0.688729706 0.918306274 1.147882843 1.377459412 1.60703598 1.836612549 2.066189117 2.180977402

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0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.150912222 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.441830294 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024 2.711252024

0.215091222 0.430182444 0.645273667 0.860364889 1.075456111 1.290547333 1.505638555 1.720729778 1.935821 2.043366611 0.244183029 0.488366059 0.732549088 0.976732118 1.220915147 1.465098176 1.709281206 1.953464235 2.197647265 2.319738779 0.271125202 0.542250405 0.813375607 1.08450081 1.355626012 1.626751214 1.897876417 2.169001619 2.440126822 2.575689423

30

3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4

Pessimistic situation
Considering 15% required rate of return:
out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is 700 200 0.700434 0.46228644 168.7345506 140 47.6 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A12%,5years 771.7074735

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is

900 -128.2925265

31

profitability index

0.857452748

Considering 12% required rate of return:

out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is

700 200 0.700434 0.46228644 168.7345506 140 47.6

0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

0.70043

0.46228

168.734

14 47

47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A12%,5years 814.333382 900 -85.666618

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is

profitability index

0.904814869

Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

Year-1 out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield 700 200 0.700434 0.46228644 168.7345506 140 47.6

Year-2 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

Year-3 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

Year-4 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

Year-4 0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

32

For 5 years the inflow is

47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A9.3%,5years 862.4016474 900 -37.5983526

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is

profitability index

0.958224053

Considering 5% required rate of return:

out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is

700 200 0.70043 0.46229 168.735 140 47.6

0 0 0.700434 0.46228644 168.7345506 140 47.6

0 0 0.700434 0.46228644 168.7345506 140 47.6

0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

0 0 0.700434 0.462286 168.7346 140 47.6

47.6*A 5%,5years+168.7345506A12%,5years 936.615 900 36.6154

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is

profitability index

1.04068

Standard deviation:
Mean= 846.2645 Standard deviation=70.71548

Pessimistic

33

cumulative probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

profitability index 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748 0.857452748

out come 0.085745275 0.17149055 0.257235824 0.342981099 0.428726374 0.514471649 0.600216924 0.685962198 0.771707473 0.814580111

cumulative probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

profitability index 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869 0.904814869

Out come 0.090481487 0.180962974 0.271444461 0.361925948 0.452407435 0.542888921 0.633370408 0.723851895 0.814333382 0.859574126

cumulative probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

profitability index 0.958224053 0.958224053 0.958224053 0.958224053 0.958224053 0.958224053 0.958224053 0.958224053 0.958224053

Out come 0.095822405 0.191644811 0.287467216 0.383289621 0.479112027 0.574934432 0.670756837 0.766579242 0.862401648

34

0.95

0.958224053

0.91031285

cumulative probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

profitability index 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068 1.04068

Out come 0.104068 0.208136 0.312204 0.416272 0.52034 0.624408 0.728476 0.832544 0.936612 0.988646

1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4

35

Video-projector:

Considering 15% required rate of return:


Video projector year-1 out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is 3800 300 180 240 3.0536352 2.015399232 735.6207197 844 286.96 $3,552.65

Year-2 0

year-3 0

year-4 0

year-5 0

0 3.053635 2.015399 735.6207 844 286.96

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844 286.96

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844 286.96

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844 286.96

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability index

4520 ($967.35) $0.79

Considering 12% required rate of return:

Year-1 out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation 3800 300 180 240 3.0536352 2.015399232 735.6207197 844

Year-2 0

Year-3 0

Year-4 0

Year-5 0

0 3.053635 2.015399 735.6207 844

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844

36

Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is

286.96 3721.331278

286.96

286.96

286.96

286.96

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability Index

4520 -798.668722 0.82330338

Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability index

Video projector year-1 3800 s 180 240 3.0536352 2.015399232 735.6207197 844 286.96 3893.203861 4520 -626.796139 0.861328288

Year-2 0

year-3 0

year-4 0

year-5 0

0 3.053635 2.015399 735.6207 844 286.96

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844 286.96

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844 286.96

0 2.678999 1.76814 645.371 844 286.96

Considering 5% required rate of return:


Video projector

37

year-1 out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability index 3800 300 180 240 3.0536352 2.015399232 735.6207197 844 286.96 $4,204.32 4520 ($315.68) $0.93

Year-2 0

year-3 0

year-4 0

year-5 0

0 3.0536352 2.015399232 735.6207197 844 286.96

0 2.6789994 1.768139604 645.3709555 844 286.96

0 2.6789994 1.768139604 645.3709555 844 286.96

0 2.6789994 1.768139604 645.3709555 844 286.96

Mean:
$3,842.88 Standard deviation 278.19592

Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

Profitability index 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79

outcome 0.079 0.158 0.237 0.316 0.395 0.474 0.553 0.632 0.711 0.7505

Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2

Profitability index 0.82330338 0.82330338

outcome 0.08233 0.164661

38

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

0.82330338 0.82330338 0.82330338 0.82330338 0.82330338 0.82330338 0.82330338 0.82330338

0.246991 0.329321 0.411652 0.493982 0.576312 0.658643 0.740973 0.782138

Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

Profitability index 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288 0.861328288

outcome 0.086133 0.172266 0.258398 0.344531 0.430664 0.516797 0.60293 0.689063 0.775195 0.818262

Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

Profitability index 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93

outcome 0.093 0.186 0.279 0.372 0.465 0.558 0.651 0.744 0.837 0.8835

39

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4

Current seating factor:


Considering 15% required rate of return:

Year-1 out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield 3800 300 180 240 77.112 50.89392 18576.2808 844 286.96

year-2 0

year-3 0

year-4 0

year-5 0

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

40

For 5 years the inflow is

$63,512.96

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability index

4520 $58,992.96 $14.05

Considering 12% required rate of return:

Tax rate 0.34 R=12%

out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is

3800 300 180 240 77.112 50.89392 18576.2808 844 286.96 $68,205.72

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability index

4520 $63,685.72 $15.09

Considering 9.3% required rate of return:

Year-1 out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) 3800 300 180 240 77.112 50.89392

Year-2 0

Year-3 0

Year-4 0

Year-5 0

0 77.112 50.89392

0 77.112 50.89392

0 77.112 50.89392

0 77.112 50.89392

41

Tax rate 0.34 R=9.3%

After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability index

18576.2808 844 286.96 $72,938.69 4520 $68,418.69 $16.14

18576.28 844 286.96

18576.28 844 286.96

18576.28 844 286.96

18576.28 844 286.96

Considering 5% required rate of return:

year-1 out flow Outflow Out flow out flow before tax income After tax income (for 1 day) After tax income (for 1 year) Depreciation Depreciation tax shield For 5 years the inflow is 3800 300 180 240 77.112 50.89392 18576.2808 844 286.96 $81,667.96

year-2 0

year-3 0

year-4 0

year-5 0

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

0 77.112 50.89392 18576.28 844 286.96

For 5 years the outflow is NPV of the project is Profitability index

4520 $77,147.96 $18.07

42

Mean
$71,581.33

Standard deviation

7747.59895

Current seating factor Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95 Profitability index 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 Outcome 1.405 2.81 4.215 5.62 7.025 8.43 9.835 11.24 12.645 13.3475

Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Profitability index 15.09 15.09 15.09 15.09 15.09

Outcome 1.509 3.018 4.527 6.036 7.545

43

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

15.09 15.09 15.09 15.09 15.09

9.054 10.563 12.072 13.581 14.3355

Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

Profitability index 16.14 16.14 16.14 16.14 16.14 16.14 16.14 16.14 16.14 16.14

Outcome 1.614 3.228 4.842 6.456 8.07 9.684 11.298 12.912 14.526 15.333

Cumulative Probability 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95

Profitability index 18.07 18.07 18.07 18.07 18.07 18.07 18.07 18.07 18.07 18.07

Outcome 1.807 3.614 5.421 7.228 9.035 10.842 12.649 14.456 16.263 17.1665

44

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4

Conclusion and recommendations

45