July 21,2009

The Real Causes Of Guinsaugon Mudslides According To Geoscientists

By Quirico M. Gorpido, Jr.

Maasin City, Southern Leyte,Philippines-What are the real causes of massive

landslides in brgy. Guinsaugon which “unexpectedly” occurred on Feb 17,2006 at
past eleven a.m. burying less than 2,000 people alive coincidentally during a
Women’s Day celebration? At that time elementary schoolchildren, teachers, some
barangay health workers, some town employees and some visitors from nearby
barangays were gathered at the auditorium for the aforesaid celebration.
The several causes that the geoscientists were discussing and revealing one
by one during a conference on Guinsaugon mudslides were also attended by
scientists from Canada, United Kingdom, Japan,Sir Lanka,Nepal and the Philippines.
Richard Guthrie, a landslide expert and a research assistant of Dr. Stephen Evans,
both from the University of Waterloo in Canada visited Guinsaugon after the great
catastrophe, as part of the Canadian government’s aid to the Philippines following
the landslide.
The weeklong international conference that were held in 3 places of Tacloban
City, Palo town and in St.
Bernard last year(April 2008) were also attended by Prof.Mark Albert Zarco of the
Dept. of Engineering Science, University of the Philippines,Diliman,Quezon City
and St.Bernard Mayor Rico Rentuza. On the other hand, Guinsaugon is one of
St.Bernard’s barangays which is less than 10 kilometers away from the town proper.
While St.Bernard town is about 125 kilometers away from Maasin City, the capital
city of Southern Leyte
Prior to the great disaster, there was a continual heavy rain as early as
October 2005 up to February 2006 according to the residents in the area. The
continual 4 months heavy rains have caused a gradual saturation of Mt. Kan-abag’s
“soft soil”. The condition of its soil compounds was aggravated with the scarcity
of forest plants with very less population of huge trees that could hold large
volume of soil and water.
At the foot of Mt. Kan-abag, six barangays were established where hundreds
and hundreds of folks have inhabited and earned their living by farming. But only
Guinsaugon was hit and even sparing a nearby brgy. of Magatas. A resident of
Magatas who is now a teacher and teaches here said.” If you look at the situation
of Brgy.Magatas,it is also highly vulnerable and a potential hit by the mudslide,
but we were thankful that it was spared.” The said teacher had lost a cousin, a
UCCP pastor who was assigned in Guinsaugon.A close family friend of my late mother
had also lost 2 siblings living in Guinsaugon and 5 cousins. Indeed, the great
unforgettable tragedy has brought sudden orphans to many children and students,
lost of loved ones and hundreds of relatives grieving in anguish, sorrow and
agony.
Former St.Benard Mayor Erlinda Lim, who was supposed to be with the group of
town hall’s employees as the speaker on a Women’s Day Celebration in Guinsaugon
including a municipal nurse, was luckily spared from the mudslide.Instead,she
went to San Juan, the next town which is 7 kilometers away, to attend to another
appointment. Another town hall employee w ho was instructed to go back to their
office to get the forgotten camera for taking pictures, was also luckily save. As
he left Guinsaugon in haste by walking towards brgy. Tambis located along the
road, he said, he heard a roaring sound like an airplane. When he turned his back,
he said, he was engulfed with fear and ran as fast as he could to save himself.
When the shocking news reached her in San Juan via cellphone, Mayor Lim who
was obviously shock of the unexpected tragedy, and somewhat controlling some
injured emotion,said:”Maybe it is not yet my time..But I could not believe that
Guinsaugon would be hit by the mudslide and be buried entirely, because it is
located one kilometer away from the foot of the mountain…Until now I could not
believe what happened to Guinsaugon,”she said during her speech before some barrio
folks, visitors, dignitaries, donors and the press at Ground Zero.
According to the geologists, the less than 900 meters High Mountain is also
located within the Philippine fault line that’s responsible for the yearly
movements of pyroclastic deposits estimated at 2.5cm./year.Guthrie study had also
confirmed to this claim by saying “that tectonic weakening of the failed rock mass
had resulted from active strike-slip movements estimated at 2.5 cm/year”. “Within
that, the rocks have been stretched and strained”, he said “As time moves on, the
rock began to age and die and finally it collapses”.
Zarco said that there were many existing evidences within the area prior to
the landslide but people (the residents) were not aware of these. Among the things
were cracks on the grounds, muddy water coming out from the holes and irregular
water flow from the mountain.
Another contributory factor to the landslide was small magnitude earthquakes
which happened the night before the massive landslide and another tremor the
following morning prior to the actual mudslide.
In a report Mayor Rentuza said that many of their questions were clarified by
the visiting geoscientists, just like how it did happen and how come it’s very
devastating. “While there were studies conducted by the national government”, the
Mayor said, “the researchers from the academe and foreign geoscientists are more
comprehensive considering their vast experiences in working in different calamity-
striken areas of the world”.
On the other hand, Zarco further said, there are many existing evidences
within the area confirming that Mt. Kan-abag is very prone to landslide. He said:
“The calamity happened already. What is important is that we all agreed that this
area is highly vulnerable to landslide. If the people have been more careful,
noticing that the signs are already there, many lives were spared…There should
have to be ways to get people report their information to authorities. That’s very
good early warning system. For landslide, we don’t have a warning system. We can
only warn people by way of monitoring”.
This report from the geoscientists and experts should also served as a lesson
to all residents in other areas of the country and other nations with similar
geological make-up to that of Guinsaugon.One of the ways to detect a potential
landslide is to be aware of the signs of an incoming massive landslide that were
revealed in this article.

(Copyright 2009 by Quirico M. Gorpido, Jr.)