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Events create realityandthatrealityenforces our understanding oftheworldaroundus.Human brain analyzesfurther events based on the existingrealityandthatcreatewhatIcall a"Thinking Cycle". That is why the majority of the human beings think in a linear fashion and are not comfortable with the sudden change and uncertainty. Large events which impact large population are no different. For example, the events of 9/11 and ongoing economic crisis have created a certain reality around us and either we admit itornot,wecontinuetolookattheworld events through these two major events. Within this context, following are some of the major changesthatwehavewitnessedinourreality: 1)Perpetualwarandtheriseofthesurveillancestate 2)Disappearanceofprivacyonthenameofnationalsecurityatthehighestlevel 3)Fragileandwobblyglobalsystemofnationstates 4)Normalizationoftheeconomicbubblesandrisingincomeinequality 5)Lossofconfidenceintheinstitutions 6)Unsustainableglobalfinancialsystem. All of these changes have made uncertainty the most constant element in our lives and all the efforts to manage these uncertainties have come too late and too little. It islikeanexampleofa frog. When you throw a frog in a pot of boiling water, he immediatelysensesdangerandjumps out. When you put him in coolwater and slowly bring it to boil,thefrogwontsensedangeruntil itstoolate. This is how I have been thinking about the current globalsituation especially in the political and economic sense. After reading volumes of books, I know what happens to societies when economies collapse when unemployment rises when debts are unsustainable and when the entire social order isonthevergeofbreakingapart.Foraverylongtime,aftertheSecondWorld War, the system worked on certain assumptions and participation especially in the western economies. In fact, the baby boomer generation, which rode the bulk of this tide, is the most prosperous generation to have ever existed in the history of the world. But then the situation started to change. It wasagradualprocessbut theendoftheGoldstandardsortofchangedthe dynamics of the global economic system. Incomes started to decline while the consumer debt started to rise. We all became consumers and consume we did. But all of that consumption came with the huge price tag Debt. Debt created a reality that we wererich and could be an active player in the market economic structure. The more we consumed, the more our reality changed.Butthatwasamanufacturedreality. Gradually, this system has been changing. We have spent decades living in a period of unsustainable fiscal irresponsibility. Our actions were responsible to made us believe that continuouseconomic growth isour innate right. But thereareconsequencesofamanufactured reality.Thecrisisisacceleratingandtheconsequencesarenowbeingrealized.

I have no doubt that these economic consequences will drive future political decisions, geopolitical tensions, social stability, demographics, crime rates, resource availability, immigration policy, police activity. They will even affect the reliability of our infrastructure, utility grids, and food transportation networks, leading to a significantreductioninstandardoflivingfor hundreds of millions ofpeople. The pace of change is exceptionally fastand our brains are not equipped to dealwith these changes which are quiteoppositeofourmanufacturedrealitywhich has been with us for a very long time. Many people will resist the change and instead cling desperately to the old system the cycle of debt and consumptionthatprovided jobs, stability, and prosperity. These people will have their lives turned upside down because that system is goneforever. Hence, it is incumbent upon us to inform ourselves of this reality and the changecoming our way. The politicalclassmustdothesamesincetheoldparadigms ofdoingthingshavenovalue in this rapidly changing world. That is one of the chief reasons that policy tools used by the governments around the world have not managed this crisis well because these policy tools were created for an erawherethecapitaldidnotmovethatfastandstayedinthelocaleconomy to create growth and jobs. Now,nomatterhowlargetheQEis,the impactisveryminimalsince the capital is either staying with the banks or going into the emerging markets to earn a handsomereturn. Both the individuals and governments have to make tough choices in order to manage this uncertainty at a level where all the variables in the social order are at leastfunctioning at their maximum.Itisnevertoolatetochoosetherightpath.