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ie Rental Report
An analysis of recent trends in the Irish rental market 2013 Q2
Introduction
By Ronan Lyons, Economist with Daft.ie
A tale of two cities: the rental market and the wider economy
Ronan Lyons is an economic researcher based at Balliol College, Oxford, where he lectures and is undertaking his doctorate in urban economics. He is also Economist with Daft.ie
As with all of the recent editions of the Daft.ie Report, the 2013 Q2 Rental Report shows the property market in Dublin experiencing very different conditions to much of the country. Rents in Dublin are now 7.5% higher than a year previously, after registering their fourth consecutive quarter of growth. This is the fastest rate of rent inflation since mid-2007, six years ago, and reflects tight supply in the Dublin market. In the sales market, prices in Dublin are rising while they are falling elsewhere. In the rental market, there is a clear difference between the capital and elsewhere but rents outside Dublin are now stable, having risen 0.9% (or 6 on average) in the year to mid-2013. Again, this is about supply and demand. Over the last year, roughly 3,700 units have been rented out in Dublin each month. Currently, there are fewer than 2,400 available to rent in the capital, even as the autumn rush begins. Elsewhere in the country, the 8,600 units available to rent look sufficient to meet demand that measures typically 6,400 units each month. This is relevant for Irelands third-level students, many of whom will be looking for a new place to live over the coming weeks. Whereas a group of friends renting a four-bedroom house in Dublin may have to fork out between 10% and 15% more than last year, their counterparts attending ITs around the country will probably have their rent unchanged. But trends in the rental market are of interest to more than just the students. Where it reflects the underlying strength of demand for accommodation, a rise in rents gives us an insight into how different parts of the country are faring economically. The graph shows the year-on-year change in rents in Dublin and in Waterford city.
Waterford
Dublin
Introduction (contd)
By Ronan Lyons, Economist with Daft.ie
A tale of two cities: the rental market and the wider economy
The contrast is stark not only are rents rising in Dublin, it appears that rent inflation is accelerating. In Waterford, on the other hand, the fall in rents may have stabilised at roughly 3% a year, but rents are still falling. This must reflect conditions in the local labour market, which was hit hard, not only with the loss of construction jobs, but also developments such as the closure of Talk Talk. The numbers signing on to the Live Register in the city have risen from below 5,000 in 2007 to 12,000 today. Unlike Cork, with its pharmaceuticals hub, and Galway, with its medical devices sector, Waterford lacks an IDA hub around which the local economy can build. Often the public sector can act as a hub but the parlous state of public finances in this country means that Waterford cannot rely on this any time soon. Much the same is true for Limerick and it is worth contrasting Cork and Galway, where rents are rising gently (about 2-3% a year) with Limerick and Waterford, where rents continue to fall. The good news is that the problem is also the solution. Cities like Waterford and Limerick compete with others, both in Ireland and abroad, on costs as well as productivity. Low costs of accommodating workers is good news from a competitiveness point of view and as the cost of housing and office space in Dublin rises, cities like Limerick and Waterford will become more competitive, particularly for projects that dont require a central location, such as corporate services or back office functions. So hopefully, as this years crop of students go from house-hunting to graduating over the next few years, the economic fortunes of Irelands regional cities will have improved.
Donegal
502 | Change: -2.0%
Monaghan
533 | Change: -0.5%
Mayo
536 | Change: -1.4%
Longford
432 | Change: 0.4%
Louth
624 | Change: 1.7%
Roscommon
533 | Change: -1.1%
Meath Galway
551 | Change: 1.2%
Westmeath
568 | Change: 0.8%
Kildare Laois
534 | Change: 1.9% 794 | Change: 3.7%
Galway City
792 | Change: 2.7%
O aly Clare
543 | Change: -1.0% 553 | Change: 0.5%
Wicklow
860 | Change: 2.3%
Carlow
586 | Change: -3.8%
Kilkenny Kerry
577 | Change: 0.6% 611 | Change: 1.3%
Wexford
591 | Change: 0.4%
Limerick
583 | Change: -0.7%
Waterford
558 | Change: -1.3%
Waterford City
591 | Change: -2.7%
Cork
611 | Change: 0.4%
Cork City
806 | Change: 1.8%
Dublin Close-up
West Dublin County
972 | Change: 6.3%
Single Room
Location \ Bedroom # Dublin City Centre North Dublin City South Dublin City North Dublin County West Dublin County Cork City Centre Cork City Suburbs Cork Commuter Towns Galway City Centre Galway City Suburbs Limerick City Centre Limerick City Suburbs Waterford City Maynooth Dundalk Athlone Carlow town Tralee Castlebar Sligo town Letterkenny South Dublin County
2013 Q2
Yr/yr Change
433 337 377 311 391 288 286 256 233 281 259 255 234 244 280 258 208 293 230 193 222 174
6.9% 4.3% 3.3% 12.3% 5.7% -2.4% -1.4% -1.5% -10.7% -2.8% 0.4% 7.1% 4.5% -0.4% -2.1% 4.9% -6.7% -2.7% 15.6% -4.9% 5.2% -7.4%
521 423 490 381 472 387 348 327 316 338 310 291 265 272 368 290 265 313 252 247 256 249
4.4% 5.2% 3.6% 1.1% 4.4% 4.0% 2.4% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 7.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 6.8% 0.4% 4.2% -3.0% 7.8%
897 771 889 772 927 832 629 622 541 656 566 467 499 414 638 456 449 437 435 428 481 355
9.0% 5.5% 10.6% 0.4% 5.9% 13.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% -1.4% -1.5% 11.4% -3.7% 5.6% 6.5% -4.3% -12.9% -5.2% 10.9% -0.8% -0.8%
1,228 1,037 1,240 954 1,211 965 794 808 737 802 776 575 635 520 889 576 581 592 559 521 554 424
5.5% 7.2% 9.3% 3.2% 9.7% 6.5% 1.9% 1.5% 4.8% -3.5% 4.4% -1.2% 0.0% -3.5% 4.5% 0.2% -2.2% 0.3% 0.5% 3.6% -1.6% -3.2%
1,790 1,256 1,593 1,122 1,114 942 945 840 1,082 927 689 738 679 1,004 655 680 651 627 549 671 558
4.7% 8.8% 9.6% 9.5% 7.3% 4.3% 7.4% 4.5% 5.2% 5.7% -0.9% -0.5% 1.3% 4.0% -1.9% -0.6% -1.1% -2.2% -0.4% -1.3% 0.9%
2,193 28.5% 1,567 11.8% 2,093 12.2% 1,577 19.9% 2,218 10.1% 1,324 1,212 1,076 1,303 1,065 894 866 794 1,345 826 742 841 702 592 815 619 9.5% 5.9% 2.9% 4.4% 9.2% 5.3% -0.8% 7.2% 8.4% 1.0% 3.2% 2.3% -2.8% -4.7% 3.2% 1.5%
2,175 13.5% 2,055 19.2% 3,180 42.2% 3,319 74.8% 3,442 32.6% 1,678 10.2% 1,783 1,523 1,338 1,580 1,426 900 1,076 981 1,388 * 825 * 779 * 1,041 15.3% 748 8.1% 5.8% 3.8% -2.5% 0.7% 5.2% 9.4% 8.0% -13.0% 8.2% -4.0% -2.6%
ollege Special
1,496 14.4%
1,103 10.0%
Figures given are average rents, based on May-July snapshot of properties for rent * denotes too few observations
4.2%
Rents nationally were 4.2% higher on average in the second quarter of 2013 than a year previously. The average rent nationwide between April and June was 825, compared to 792 a year previously.
Stock of Properties to Rent (start-of-month) & Flow of New Properties to Rent (during entire month), 2007-2008
25000
20000
Number of Properties
Nationwide, there were one third fewer properties available to rent on August 1st, compared to the same date last year.
15000
10000
5000
0
2006 II III IV 2007 II III IV 2008 II III IV 2009 II III IV 2010 II III IV 2011 II III IV 2012 II III IV 2013 II III
The index is based on asking rents for properties advertised to let on Daft.ie. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number.
Inflow
Stock
Out Flow
Average rent: 972 Year-on-year change: 6.5% Quarter-on-quarter change: 1.3% Change from peak: -22.8%
Average rent: 1,063 Year-on-year change: 7.4% Quarter-on-quarter change: 1.7% Change from peak: -23.3%
Rents are rising in all parts of Dublin at about 7-8% year-on-year. Compared to their lowest point in late 2010, rents in the capital are now almost 10% higher. Just 20,000 properties were made available to rent in the first half of 2013 in Dublin, compared to 30,000 in 2011 and 2012. Rent-a-room costs continue to rise throughout the capital, with the cost of a double-room up 4-5% in most areas.
Average rent: 1,148 Year-on-year change: 7.5% Quarter-on-quarter change: 1.5% Change from peak: -22.4%
Average rent: 1,203 Year-on-year change: 7.7% Quarter-on-quarter change: 2.1% Change from peak: -19.9%
Double Room
Average rent % Yr/yr change Vacancy 1.1 3.7 2.1 4.1 2.4 5.4
Dublin City Centre North Dublin City South Dublin City North Co. Dublin South Co. Dublin West Co. Dublin
Cork City
Galway City
Limerick City
Waterford City
Galway City
Average rent: 792 Year-on-year change: 2.7% Quarter-on-quarter change: 1.0% Change from peak: -17.7%
As in previous reports, rents are rising in Cork and Galway cities, while in Limerick and Waterford, they continue to fall. The contrast is greatest between Galway city, where rents are 18% below 2007 levels, and Waterford, where they have fallen 30%. Across the four cities, there were 1,850 properties available to rent on August 1, down from 2,500 a year previously. The cost of a double room is static in most urban areas, although in parts of Cork city, it is up 4-5%.
Limerick City
Average rent: 642 Year-on-year change: -0.2% Quarter-on-quarter change: 0.6% Change from peak: -25.6%
Waterford City
Average rent: 591 Year-on-year change: -2.7% Quarter-on-quarter change: -0.2% Change from peak: -29.7%
Cork City
Average rent: 806 Year-on-year change: 1.8% Quarter-on-quarter change: 0.9% Change from peak: -25.4%
Double Room
Average rent 348 327 317 335 308 290 262 274 % Yr/yr change 3.3% 4.8% -0.3% -1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 7.9% Vacancy 9.8 7.2 5.5 3.6 3.9 4.4 7.7 17.1
2013 Q1
2013 Q3
Ulster
West Leinster
South-East Leinster
Munster
Average rent: 502 Year-on-year change: -1.3% Quarter-on-quarter change: 0.4% Change from peak: -23.4%
Ulster
Outside the cities, rents in Connacht and Munster are stable, while in Ulster they are falling slightly. In Leinster, rents are rising in most areas, in particular in the commuter counties, where they are 3% higher than a year ago.
Average rent: 537 Year-on-year change: 0.0% Quarter-on-quarter change: 0.7% Change from peak: -22.1%
Connaught
Average rent: 751 Year-on-year change: 2.8% Quarter-on-quarter change: 1.0% Change from peak: -28.2% Average rent: 535 Year-on-year change: 0.9% Quarter-on-quarter change: 0.2% Change from peak: -27.1%
The number of properties available to rent outside the cities stood at 7,200 on August 1, a fall of 31% in a year. The cost of a room outside the cities is rising in many areas, in particular in Leinster, but is falling in Ulster.
West Leinster
Average rent: 583 Year-on-year change: 0.0% Quarter-on-quarter change: 0.8% Change from peak: -26.6%
Munster
Average rent: 596 Year-on-year change: -0.2% Quarter-on-quarter change: 0.0% Change from peak: -25.1%
South-East Leinster
Area Dublin Comm. Counties West Leinster South-East Leinster Munster Connaught Ulster
* 1,396 1,999 1,471 2,333 1,136 985 674 713 827 1,037 860 772 640 786
* 976 1,509 1,091 1,860 750 646 423 422 576 707 584 498 396 465
Mortgage repayments are based on the following application: 30 years, 3.6% variable mortgage [average for new business], 90% LTV - since the start of 2013, no mortgage interest relief is applied
Investor Information: Snapshot of gross yields across the country (and year on year change, in percentage points)
Location \ Bedroom # Dublin City Centre North Dublin City South Dublin City North Dublin County South Dublin County West Dublin County Dublin Commuter Counties West Leinster South-East Leinster Munster Cork City Limerick City Waterford City Connaught/Ulster Galway City Average Average 7.8% 6.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4% 7.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 5.7% 7.1% 5.7% Yr/yr change 0.3% 0.1% -0.3% 0.6% -0.2% -0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 1-bed 7.7% 8.6% 7.3% 9.9% 7.5% 8.1% 6.1% 7.8% 7.0% 6.3% 9.2% 8.3% 10.6% 6.2% 7.4% 7.1% Yr/yr change 0.6% 0.5% -0.5% 2.3% 0.5% -1.3% -2.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 4.0% 0.0% -1.8% 0.2% 2-bed 7.8% 7.9% 6.7% 7.4% 6.0% 8.2% 7.5% 7.1% 7.7% 6.6% 8.0% 8.2% 7.9% 7.2% 7.8% 7.2% Yr/yr change 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% -0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.5% -0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3-bed 8.4% 6.3% 5.6% 6.1% 5.5% 7.0% 6.1% 6.8% 6.2% 5.9% 6.3% 6.6% 7.3% 6.9% 8.1% 6.3% Yr/yr change 0.2% -0.1% -0.6% 0.2% -0.7% -0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 4-bed * 5.0% 4.7% 4.9% 4.5% 5.5% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 5.1% 6.3% 4.8% Yr/yr change * -0.4% -0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 5-bed * 5.4% 4.4% 6.4% 3.6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 4.4% 3.9% 4.7% 5.5% 4.1% 4.6% 4.9% 4.2% Yr/yr change * 0.7% -0.2% 2.3% -1.6% 1.3% -0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.6% 1.6% 0.5%
The statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties, with a Cooks Distance filter for outliers. The average monthly sample size for lettings properties is over 10,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of 2007 used as the base. For more on the methodology, please see www.daft.ie/research.
Disclaimer
The Daft.ie Report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices, snapshots or analysis at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on any information contained in this report for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk.
Credits
Economic Analysis: Ronan Lyons Marketing & Communications: Kieran Harte Layout and Design: Ciara Mulvany
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