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Dr. Steve Beach

Updated: May 7, 2012

Chapter 6: Interest Rates and Bond Valuation

How the time value equations can be used for the valuation of Bonds Zero coupon bonds / Pure Discount Bonds Example of Pure Discount Loan: Treasury Bills. Describe them and draw time line. Q: What equation do we use here? Present value of a future cashflow PV = FV/ (1 + R) N

Example:

Consider a 10-year zero coupon bond, it is priced to yield 9%. What is the current price? PV = 1,000 / (1.09) 10 = 1,000 x (1.09) -10 = \$422.41 On financial calculator: N=10, I=9, PMT=0, FV=1000, CPT PMT = 422.41

Note that I said “priced to yield” What I am implying is that the market forces have determined that 9% is required on a particular security with its particular risk and payment structure. That required return is established in the market place.

YTM is the IRR on a bond. We’ll discuss IRR in detail a little later.

Example:

What is its yield-to-maturity? 275 = 1,000(1 + ytm) -20 .275 = ( 1 + ytm ) -20 1.06668= 1 + ytm 6.668% = ytm On financial calculator: N=20, PV=-275, FV=1000, PMT=0, CPT I=6.668

Say we have a 20-year zero-coupon bond that is selling for \$275.

Dr. Steve Beach

Updated: May 7, 2012

Pricing and YTM for Coupon-Paying Corporate Bonds Coupon paying bonds pay an interest payment every 6 months and return the principle (usually \$1,000) at the end of the loan.

Example:

Assume we have a 20-year bond paying a 10.25% annual coupon rate (=> .1025*1000/2 =) or \$51.25 every six months. If it is priced to yield 11%, what is its price?

PMT= 51.25

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1

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4

PV=?

I = 11%/2

FV = 1,000

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39

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40 = N periods

For equations:

use (1) pv of annuity and (2) pv of future cash flow.

PV = Coupon (PVIFA R,N ) + 1000 (PVIF R,N )

Price

:General solution for Bond

PV = \$51.25(1-[1/(1.055) 40 ])/.055 + \$1000/(1.055) 40 PV = 822.36 + 117.46 = 939.82

For calculator:

N=40, I=5.5, pmt=51.25, fv = 1000

CPT pv => \$-939.83

What if the required return goes up? Say to 12%, then PV = 868.34 Bond is at a discount (price < 1000)!! What if required return goes down? Say to 10%, then PV = 1,021.49 Bond is at a premium (price > 1000)!!

Current yield = Annual Coupon PMT \ Current Price = 102.50 / 939.83 = 10.91% The annual return due to the coupon payments: NOT total return!

Dr. Steve Beach

Updated: May 7, 2012

Solving for yield:

However, when we try to calculate the YTM for a coupon paying corporate bond, we do not have a closed form solution. We must solve for YTM using trial-and- error or have our financial calculator solve for us.

If the PV = 1035, What is the YTM? First, we know the YTM < 10.25%, since the price is at a premium. Try: 9.75% => I = 4.875%

PV = 1043.64 Now, the present value of cash flows indicates a price above \$1,035, so need to increase I. Try: 9.9% => I = 4.95% PV = 1030.24 Now, the present value of cash flows indicates a price below \$1,035, so need to lower I. Try: 9.85% => I = 4.925%

PV = 1034.67

Close enough!

Now the easy way, using calculator:

N=40, PV= -1035, pmt=51.25, fv=1000

CPT I/Y => 4.92% every six months or 9.85% annually

Also, some financial calculators are set to perform corporate bond valuation. Different calculators follow different conventions, so if you want to use the bond valuation function, you need to read your users’ manual.

Dr. Steve Beach

Interest rate risk:

Updated: May 7, 2012

Interest Rate Risk Example

The risk that bond price will fall with increase in interest rates

1. Longer time to maturity (ceteris paribus) => Greater interest rate risk

“Price is more volatile for bonds further from maturity”

2. Lower coupon rate(ceteris paribus) => Greater interest rate risk

“Price is more volatile for bonds with lower coupon rates”

ABC bond has 10 years to maturity, 10% coupon rate, and a YTM = 10%.

XYZ bond has 20 years to maturity, 10% coupon rate, and a YTM = 10%.

STU bond has 10 years to maturity, 6% coupon rate, and a YTM = 10%.

What happens to each bond with an increase in YTM to 12%?

 XYZ ABC STU PMT 50 50 30 FV 1000 1000 1000 I 5% 5% 5% N 40 20 20 PV -1000 -1000 -750.76 YTM increases to 12%: I 6% 6% 6% PV -849.54 -885.30 -655.90
 ABC: %Δ = 885.30 – 1000 / 1000 = -11.47% XYZ: %Δ = 849.54 – 1000 / 1000 = -15.05% STU: %Δ = 665.90 – 1000 / 1000 = -12.64%

Dr. Steve Beach

Interest Rate Levels

Updated: May 7, 2012

What is a rate of return (or interest rate)? Simple: I offer to give you \$115 in one year if you give me \$100 now.

Return on your \$100 investment: \$115 - \$100 / \$100 = .15 = 15%

i.e. Given a \$100 investment and a 15% rate of return we have:

\$100 *(1.15) = \$115

What elements contribute to your required return?

1. Compensation for not consuming now

2. Keep up with rising costs (expected inflation)

3. Risk of the investment

INFLATION …IS A COSTLY THING EXAMPLE:

\$160.

If that basket is used to measure inflation, then inflation was

(\$160 - \$150) / \$150 = .066667 = 6.6667% for the year.

We see that inflation reduces the purchasing power of money, i.e. the dollar. Note in the example that one dollar last year bought 1/150 of your basket, while now one dollar only buys 1/160 of your basket.

Dr. Steve Beach

Updated: May 7, 2012

NOMINAL VERSUS REAL RATES Nominal rates of return an observed rate of return that is not adjusted for inflation, like the 15% mentioned in the preceding discussion. Although the investment yielded a 15% return, if inflation was 15%, we cannot buy any more goods than before.

Real rates of return - are inflation adjusted. In the example above, our nominal rate was 15% but, since we can only buy the same amount of goods, we received a 0% real return from that investment.

The relationship between nominal and real interest rates is given in the Fischer Equation:

Nominal Interest Rate = real rate + expected inflation

r = r* + E(h)

Which is often used to show the real rate of return as: r* = r h Real risk-free rate is the compensation for deferring consumption (instead of spending!)

The exact formulation that is much more useful in more complex analysis is:

(1 + r) = (1+r*) (1+h)

The real rate was about 3% for much of the 1900s. Nominal rates have fluctuated from 4% to 18% over the time, though. As a result, much of the variation in nominal interest rates is due to changes in expected inflation.

In the example where you lend me \$100, your nominal rate of return was 15% but, your real return on that investment was:

r* loan to SLB = r loan to SLB h

r* loan to SLB = .15 .066667 = .0833333

Dr. Steve Beach

Term Structure of Interest Rates R f = r* + InfPrem + IntPrem

(Default) risk-free rate of return =

Updated: May 7, 2012

Real rate of return + Inflation Premium + Interest Rate “Risk” Premium

Term structure of interest rates considers R f for pure discount bonds. R f is compared for different maturities.

Inflation Premium based on expected inflation, investors must be compensated for inflation Interest Rate Risk the risk that higher interest rates will reduce the value of the security (alternatives)

Yield curve looks at R f for securities of similar default risk, usually Treasury Yield Curve.

Upward sloping yield curve:

Downward sloping yield curve:

Define R 1 as the required return (YTM) on security 1

r 1 =

R f + RP 1

Specifically a risk premium is the return required on a risky investment in excess of the return required on a riskless investment.

For any particular investment, required rate of return can be defined as:

r 1 = return on U.S. Treasury Security + risk premium 1

Why? 1. The treasury securities are considered default risk free 2. Investors require a higher return for various risks (default, taxes, liquidity)

Dr. Steve Beach

Updated: May 7, 2012