Brazil Proxy GDP

by Eduardo Petazze
Last Updated: January 15, 2015
In the 3Q2015 the gross value added at (1995) prices fell by 3.82% YoY. For the 4Q2015 a fall of 5.29% YoY is estimate
(previous estimate -2.98% YoY)
In November 2015, the index of economic activity was -6.14% YoY or -0.52% MoM (previous estimate -4.89% YoY)
Every month, the Brazilian Central Bank releases its Economic Activity Indicator, an efficient estimator of GVA.
Central Bank Activity Index (IBC-Br)
2002=100
NSA
Y/Y
SA
Y/Y
2010
134.56 6.98% 134.56 7.00%
2011
139.49 3.67% 139.52 3.69%
2012
141.73 1.61% 141.76 1.61%
2013
145.82 2.89% 145.85 2.88%
2014
146.97 0.79% 147.09 0.86%
2015
141.16 -3.96% 141.16 -4.04%
2016
134.09 -5.01% 134.09 -5.01%
Last data
Own estimate
Quarterly Central Bank Activity Index
2002=100
NSA
Y/Y
SA
Q/Q
2012Q1
136.88 1.43% 140.03 -0.12%
2012Q2
140.98 0.73% 140.81 0.56%
2012Q3
145.72 2.33% 143.21 1.70%
2012Q4
143.34 1.92% 142.99 -0.15%
2013Q1
140.64 2.74% 143.47 0.33%
2013Q2
146.48 3.90% 146.45 2.08%
2013Q3
149.33 2.47% 146.92 0.32%
2013Q4
146.84 2.44% 146.53 -0.27%
2014Q1
145.10 3.17% 148.26 1.18%
2014Q2
146.15 -0.23% 146.38 -1.27%
2014Q3
150.67 0.90% 147.08 0.48%
2014Q4
145.97 -0.59% 146.66 -0.28%
2015Q1
142.41 -1.85% 145.18 -1.01%
2015Q2
144.73 -0.97% 143.01 -1.49%
2015Q3
143.10 -5.03% 139.87 -2.20%
2015Q4
136.07 -6.79% 137.54 -1.66%
2016Q1
134.07 -5.86% 137.30 -0.18%
2016Q2
134.72 -6.92% 135.34 -1.42%
2016Q3
135.68 -5.19% 132.90 -1.81%
2016Q4
129.88 -4.55% 130.52 -1.79%
Last data
Own estimate
Monthly Central Bank Activity Index
2002=100
NSA
Y/Y
SA
M/M
Jan-14
142.48 2.89% 148.63 2.22%
Feb-14
143.91 7.43% 148.31 -0.22%
Mar-14
148.90 -0.39% 147.84 -0.32%
Apr-14
147.53 -2.46% 147.36 -0.32%
May-14
147.97 1.56% 146.79 -0.39%
Jun-14
142.95 0.31% 144.98 -1.23%
Jul-14
152.57 1.50% 146.62 1.13%
Aug-14
149.81 -0.44% 147.03 0.28%
Sep-14
149.64 1.67% 147.58 0.37%
Oct-14
150.68 -0.90% 147.20 -0.26%
Nov-14
145.20 -1.23% 147.27 0.05%
Dec-14
142.03 0.40% 145.51 -1.20%
Jan-15
139.13 -2.35% 145.35 -0.11%
Feb-15
138.01 -4.10% 146.12 0.53%
Mar-15
150.10 0.81% 144.07 -1.40%
Apr-15
142.76 -3.23% 142.49 -1.10%
May-15
141.34 -4.48% 142.47 -0.01%
Jun-15
141.09 -1.30% 141.16 -0.92%
Jul-15
145.95 -4.34% 141.00 -0.11%
Aug-15
143.01 -4.54% 139.74 -0.89%
Sep-15
140.34 -6.21% 138.86 -0.63%
Oct-15
141.15 -6.32% 138.09 -0.55%
Nov-15
136.28 -6.14% 137.37 -0.52%
Dec-15
134.71 -5.15% 137.15 -0.16%
Last data
Own provisional estimate
Own estimate

GVA, R$ (1995) million

NSA
Y/Y
SA
Y/Y
962,181 6.98%
962,214 7.00%
997,458 3.67%
997,674 3.69%
1,013,497 1.61%
1,013,697 1.61%
1,042,745 2.89%
1,042,912 2.88%
1,044,125 0.13%
1,044,428 0.15%
1,009,183 -3.35%
1,009,187 -3.37%
969,437 -3.94%
969,436 -3.94%

GVA, R$ (1995) million

NSA
Y/Y
SA
244,708 1.43%
250,324
252,039 0.73%
251,732
260,506 2.33%
256,009
256,244 1.92%
255,632
251,424 2.74%
256,485
261,868 3.90%
261,816
266,950 2.47%
262,658
262,503 2.44%
261,954
259,270 3.12%
263,804
259,920 -0.74%
260,130
264,320 -0.99%
260,412
260,616 -0.72%
260,082
254,770 -1.74%
258,622
253,354 -2.53%
253,826
254,221 -3.82%
250,726
246,838 -5.29%
246,013
243,243 -4.52%
247,347
244,390 -3.54%
244,637
246,173 -3.17%
242,519
235,631 -4.54%
234,934

Q/Q
-0.12%
0.56%
1.70%
-0.15%
0.33%
2.08%
0.32%
-0.27%
0.71%
-1.39%
0.11%
-0.13%
-0.56%
-1.85%
-1.22%
-1.88%
0.54%
-1.10%
-0.87%
-3.13%

GVA, R$ (1995) million

NSA
Y/Y
SA
84,865 2.84%
88,154
85,716 7.38%
87,964
88,689 -0.44%
87,686
87,458 -2.96%
87,292
87,719 1.04%
86,955
84,743 -0.21%
85,882
89,216 -0.40%
86,535
87,602 -2.30%
86,777
87,502 -0.24%
87,101
89,675 -1.02%
87,013
86,414 -1.36%
87,055
84,527 0.27%
86,014
82,965 -2.24%
86,308
82,298 -3.99%
86,766
89,507 0.92%
85,548
83,300 -4.75%
84,301
82,471 -5.98%
84,289
82,326 -2.85%
83,514
86,428 -3.12%
84,253
84,687 -3.33%
83,500
83,106 -5.02%
82,974
85,354 -4.82%
82,333
82,409 -4.63%
81,904
81,462 -3.63%
81,776

M/M
1.74%
-0.22%
-0.32%
-0.45%
-0.39%
-1.23%
0.76%
0.28%
0.37%
-0.10%
0.05%
-1.20%
0.34%
0.53%
-1.40%
-1.46%
-0.01%
-0.92%
0.88%
-0.89%
-0.63%
-0.77%
-0.52%
-0.16%

Note: The original monthly data from the Central Bank, prior to January 2014, were corrected, as the actual data of gross
value added in the national accounts.

Addendum: Impact of Recession on Brazilian Employment Situation

In Oct15 the unemployment rate (excluding child) in metropolitan areas increased to 7.84% from 4.67% in Oct'14

Links: Press release October 2015 - pdf, 58 pages - Tables by Metropolitan Areas pdf, 7 pages
The following table represents aggregate data the metropolitan areas, excluding the population aged 10-14 years.
Brazilian Population
(000)
persons
Total
YoY 15yr or +
2004
182,911 1.27%
131,251
2005
185,142 1.22%
133,667
2006
187,319 1.18%
136,069
2007
189,442 1.13%
138,454
2008
191,511 1.09%
140,823
2009
193,526 1.05%
143,179
2010
195,486 1.01%
145,521
2011
197,391 0.97%
147,850
2012
199,242 0.94%
150,167
2013
201,039 0.90%
152,469
2014
202,781 0.87%
154,755
2015
204,467 0.83%
157,020
2016
206,100 0.80%
159,282
Latest data
Own estimate
Brazilian Population
(000)
persons
Total
YoY 15yr or +
2014.10 203,280 0.86%
155,419
2014.11 203,422 0.85%
155,608
2014.12 203,563 0.85%
155,796
2015.01 203,703 0.85%
155,985
2015.02 203,844 0.84%
156,173
2015.03 203,983 0.84%
156,361
2015.04 204,123 0.84%
156,548
2015.05 204,262 0.84%
156,736
2015.06 204,401 0.83%
156,923
2015.07 204,539 0.83%
157,109
2015.08 204,677 0.83%
157,300
2015.09 204,814 0.82%
157,491
2015.10 204,951 0.82%
157,681
2015.11 205,088 0.82%
157,871
2015.12 205,225 0.82%
158,060
2016.01 205,361 0.81%
158,250
2016.02 205,496 0.81%
158,439
2016.03 205,632 0.81%
158,627
2016.04 205,766 0.81%
158,816
2016.05 205,901 0.80%
159,004
2016.06 206,035 0.80%
159,192
2016.07 206,169 0.80%
159,379
2016.08 206,302 0.79%
159,565
2016.09 206,435 0.79%
159,750
2016.10 206,568 0.79%
159,935
Latest data
Own estimate

Population in Metropolitan Areas 15 year or more

Rates
Total Inactivity Activity
YoY
Employed Unmployed Activity Unemployment
34,080
12,662 21,418 1.98%
18,965
2,454 62.85%
11.46%
34,808
13,180 21,629 0.98%
19,500
2,129 62.14%
9.84%
35,273
13,206 22,067 2.02%
19,866
2,201 62.56%
9.97%
35,900
13,430 22,471 1.83%
20,383
2,088 62.59%
9.29%
36,511
13,639 22,872 1.79%
21,071
1,801 62.64%
7.87%
37,122
14,027 23,096 0.98%
21,233
1,863 62.22%
8.07%
37,692
14,129 23,563 2.02%
21,980
1,583 62.51%
6.72%
38,262
14,411 23,851 1.22%
22,433
1,418 62.34%
5.95%
38,903
14,649 24,253 1.69%
22,921
1,332 62.34%
5.49%
39,472
15,073 24,398 0.60%
23,089
1,309 61.81%
5.37%
40,219
15,987 24,233 -0.68%
23,064
1,169 60.25%
4.82%
40,867
16,468 24,399 0.69%
22,726
1,673 59.70%
6.86%
41,572
17,006 24,566 0.68%
22,307
2,259 59.09%
9.20%

Population in Metropolitan Areas 15 year or more

Rates
Total Inactivity Activity
YoY
Employed Unmployed Activity Unemployment
40,337
15,942 24,395 -0.49%
23,255
1,139 60.48%
4.67%
40,409
15,858 24,551 0.66%
23,363
1,188 60.76%
4.84%
40,578
16,322 24,256 -0.45%
23,208
1,049 59.78%
4.32%
40,620
16,353 24,267 0.12%
22,984
1,286 59.74%
5.30%
40,568
16,403 24,165 -0.08%
22,755
1,410 59.57%
5.83%
40,604
16,414 24,190 0.33%
22,707
1,483 59.58%
6.13%
40,611
16,308 24,303 0.90%
22,751
1,553 59.84%
6.39%
40,762
16,370 24,392 1.26%
22,769
1,623 59.84%
6.65%
40,859
16,444 24,415 0.95%
22,738
1,677 59.75%
6.87%
41,000
16,422 24,578 1.94%
22,740
1,838 59.95%
7.48%
41,035
16,476 24,559 0.96%
22,711
1,851 59.85%
7.54%
40,967
16,446 24,521 1.08%
22,673
1,847 59.86%
7.53%
41,066
16,709 24,357 -0.16%
22,448
1,909 59.31%
7.84%
41,103
16,557 24,546 -0.02%
22,697
1,849 59.72%
7.53%
41,211
16,719 24,493 0.98%
22,740
1,753 59.43%
7.16%
41,289
16,813 24,476 0.86%
22,644
1,832 59.28%
7.48%
41,304
16,889 24,415 1.03%
22,477
1,938 59.11%
7.94%
41,333
16,935 24,398 0.86%
22,366
2,032 59.03%
8.33%
41,351
16,905 24,446 0.59%
22,330
2,116 59.12%
8.66%
41,440
16,930 24,510 0.48%
22,315
2,195 59.15%
8.96%
41,534
16,982 24,552 0.56%
22,289
2,263 59.11%
9.22%
41,652
16,999 24,653 0.31%
22,276
2,377 59.19%
9.64%
41,728
17,034 24,694 0.55%
22,258
2,436 59.18%
9.86%
41,728
17,033 24,694 0.71%
22,229
2,465 59.18%
9.98%
41,779
17,167 24,612 1.05%
22,106
2,506 58.91%
10.18%

Pd: Child employment offered in the big cities was reduced from 107,000 on average in 2004, up 30,000 on average for 2014.
In October 2015 the amount of activity seeking children, according to the surveys, was 9,000, of which 5,000 were employed.
Also see: Brasil Perspectivas Econmicas para el 2015