Political Overview

Carlyle A. Thayer

Vietnam Update
The Australian National University
November 6-7, 2008
 2008
Year of Economic Calamity
Outline
1.  Framing Political Analysis
2.  Formal Politics
3.  Informal Politics
4.  Party-State Response
5.  Reconsidering Political Analysis
 Indicators
Index Ranking Organisation

Global Competitiveness 70 out of World Economic Forum

Report 2008/09 131

Corruption Perceptions 121 out of Transparency International

Index 2008 180

Index of Economic 135 out of Heritage Foundation/The

Freedom 2008 157 Wall Street Journal

World Wide Press Freedom 168 out of Reporters Without Borders

Index 2008 173
 ①  Framing Political Analysis

Conceptualizing state-society relations:

•  Dominating state (bureaucratic polity)
–  Mono-organisational socialism
•  Mobilizational corporatism
•  Dialogical (everyday politics)
①  Formal Politics
 6th Plenum (14-22 January)
•  Resolution on continued improvement of
the institutions for a socialist orientated
market economy
•  Reform of salary, social insurance and
allowances for those who had rendered
service for the country (2008-2012)
•  Party Central Inspection Commission
membership expanded
 7th Plenum (9-17 July)
•  Three resolutions:
–  On strengthening the party’s leadership towards
youth-related work
–  On building the intellectual circle
–  On agriculture, farmers and rural areas.
•  Assigned the Politburo to make an assessment
and recommend policies to overcome
weaknesses and shortcomings in order to
implementing socio-economic tasks for the
second half of the year.
Resolution 10/2008/NQ-CP issued April 17, 2008
National Assembly
Quốc Hội

Nguyen Phu Trong - Chair

12th legislature
• 3rd Session
(6 May-7 June)
• 4th Session
(16 October-15 November)
 8th Plenum (2-4 October)
•  Considered a report on socio-economic
development and 2008 budget spending
plus major tasks for 2009 by Nguyen Sinh
Hung.
•  2009 top priority to achieve single digit
inflation rate by 2010, thus gradually
stabilizing the macro-economy with growth
rate kept at an appropriate and
sustainable level
 ③  Informal Politics

•  Pro-Democracy Activism
•  Labour Strikes
•  Media Reporting of Corruption
•  Catholics Land Protests in Hanoi
•  Ethnic Minorities and Religious Freedom
in the Central Highlands
 Pro-Democracy Activism

Southern office National Assembly

Hanoi July 28, 2008

 Labour Strikes in Viet Nam

Source: Kerkvliet 2008b and Vietnam Investment Review, August 25, 2008
Labour Strike Da Nang, 30th January

10,000 Workers Strike at Keyhinge Toy

Plan, Da Nang,January 30, 2008
 Reasons for Strikes
•  Inflation •  Lack of allowances
•  Increased (sick and maternity
productivity quotas leave)
without pay •  Long shifts
•  Overtime without •  Enforced overtime
compensation •  No contracts
•  Denial of annual •  Health and safety
leave
•  Inadequate annual
•  Delay in wages bonus
•  Inadequate meal •  Social insurance
allowance/poor unpaid
meals
The Media and Corruption
• Press break
PMU 18 scandal
• Transport
Minister resigns
• Deputy Minister
and head of
PMU 18
arrested
• Press campaign
called off 2006
• Deputy Minister
released and
exonerated
• Press resume
reporting on
scandal
• Reporters
arrested
 The Media and Corruption
• Journalists from
Thanh Nien and
Tuoi Tre and their
police informants
arrested, tried and
convicted of ‘abuse
of power’

In August, press credentials revoked for 5 journalists

and editors from 4 newspapers and press credentials
withdrawn from 2 other reporters. In October two editors
of Dai Doan Ket notified of dismissal
Catholic Church-State Land Disputes

Thai Ha Parish
Former Vatican Embassy 178 Nguyen Luong Bang
42 Nha Chung
 Catholic Church-State Land Disputes

Peaceful Prayer Vigils Mass Rallies of Solidarity

Catholic Church-State Land Disputes

Police Intervention Organised Gangs

Catholic Church-State Land Disputes
New Public Park Another New Public Park
42 Nha Chung 178 Nguyen Luong Bang
 Religious Freedom
Degar ethnic minority
Unified Buddhist Church
House Church Christians
of Viet Nam

Thich Quang Do Puih H'Bat arrested

New Supreme Patriarch April 9, 2008
④  Party-State Relations

Supporters of
Supporters of
Party Secretary
Prime Minister
General
 Five Deputy
Prime Ministers

PM Nguyen
Tan Dung

Nguyen Pham Gia Truong Nguyen Hoang

Sinh Hung Khiem Vinh Trong Thien Nhan Trung Hai
Cabinet Composition

8th
Pre-date PM
Congress 5
Dung
1996
9th
PM Dung’s
Congress 7
cohorts
2001
10th New comers
Congress 10 to spearhead
reforms
2006
⑤  Reframing Political Analysis
•  Bring the party back in
•  Leaders and role conflict
•  Factions and factionalism
•  Sectoral politics
•  Political economy
•  Patron-client relations
•  Beyond workers and peasants
–  the role of intellectuals and clergy
•  The media
–  journalists, Internet, blogs, Bishop’s
letters, New Horizon Radio
Vietnam’s Power Elite
Secretary
General

State
Prime Minister
President

Permanent Chair National

Secretary Assembly
Party Standing
Secretariat Committee
Performance Legitimacy

?
Leninist, Mono-organisational Socialism,
Market-Leninism, Soft Authoritarian?

Vietnam Communist Party

Armed Mass
The State
Forces Organisations
Political Overview: Vietnam in 2008
Abstract & Bibliography
Carlyle A. Thayer
Paper presented to Vietam Update 2008, The Australian
National University, Canberra, November 6-7, 2008
  2 

Political Overview: Vietnam in 2008

Carlyle A. Thayer*

Abstract
This paper presents an overview of the major political developments in
Vietnam during 2008. The paper opens with a brief consideration of how
political scientists have framed their analysis of politics in Vietnam.
The main body of the paper is divided into three parts. Part one considers
“formal politics”, that is, decision-making by the Vietnam Communist
Party and the National Assembly. In particular, the paper analyses the
main outcomes of the sixth, seventh and eighth plenary sessions of the
party Central Committee, held January, July, and October, respectively.
Next, the paper discusses the legislative outcomes of the third and fourth
sessions of the National Assembly that met in May-June and October-
November.
Part two of the paper explores “informal politics” in Vietnam during the
year. In particular, the paper discusses public protest in a number of issue
areas. Five case studies are discussed: pro-democracy activism; labour
strikes in the garment and textile industries; media reporting of corruption
scandals; Catholic protests over property claims in Hanoi; and ethnic
minorities and religious freedom in the Central Highlands
Part three presents an analysis of how Vietnam’s party-state responded to
the rapid rise in inflation. This section considers tensions between party
and state over how to demarcate responsibility for dealing with this issue.
The paper concludes with a reconsideration of frameworks for analysing
the Vietnamese political system in light of developments in 2008.
 

                                                        
*
Professor of Politics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University College, The
University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy. Professor Thayer is
currently on sabbatical leav as Visiting Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The
Australian National University.
  3 

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