China - International Trade in Goods and Services 2013 and 2014 Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
With provisional data of Chinese International Trade in Goods until the 4Q2013, is formulated the following
forecast of Chinese foreign trade of goods and services.

Summary Exports and Imports of Goods and Services 2013 and 2014 Outlook
Goods & Services (NSA)
million of
US dollars
Exports
Imports
2000
279,561.1
250,687.6
2001
299,410.2
271,324.0
2002
365,395.3
328,012.7
2003
485,029.3
449,208.2
2004
658,305.4
607,131.0
2005
836,887.8
712,261.0
2006
1,061,688.3
852,769.4
2007
1,342,266.8
1,034,230.8
2008
1,581,808.4
1,232,975.8
2009
1,333,273.6
1,113,143.2
2010
1,743,582.6
1,520,558.7
2011
2,089,829.6
1,907,925.9
2012
2,248,317.0
2,016,472.1
2013
2,411,653.8
2,270,964.9
2014
2,583,190.3
2,341,675.7
Provisonal data own estimate
Own estimate
Goods & Services (NSA)
million of
US dollars
Exports
Imports
2011Q1
451,416.4
443,970.8
2011Q2
517,855.7
464,356.4
2011Q3
564,976.3
498,888.3
2011Q4
555,581.2
500,710.4
2012Q1
474,943.4
471,125.1
2012Q2
573,018.6
504,268.8
2012Q3
591,051.5
517,799.8
2012Q4
609,303.5
523,278.4
2013Q1
557,246.5
517,177.9
2013Q2
597,140.1
534,782.1
2013Q3
608,149.5
629,469.5
2013Q4
649,117.8
589,535.4
Last data
Provisonal data own estimate
Own estimate
Y/Y
Quarter
Exports
Imports
2011Q1
28.68%
34.73%
2011Q2
20.66%
23.21%
2011Q3
19.34%
25.02%
2011Q4
13.35%
20.62%
2012Q1
5.21%
6.12%
2012Q2
10.65%
8.60%
2012Q3
4.62%
3.79%
2012Q4
9.67%
4.51%
2013Q1
17.33%
9.78%
2013Q2
4.21%
6.05%
2013Q3
2.89%
21.57%
2013Q4
6.53%
12.66%
Provisonal data own estimate
Own estimate

Y/Y
Exports
26.52%
7.10%
22.04%
32.74%
35.72%
27.13%
26.86%
26.43%
17.85%
-15.71%
30.77%
19.86%
7.58%
7.26%
7.11%

Imports
31.72%
8.23%
20.89%
36.95%
35.16%
17.32%
19.73%
21.28%
19.22%
-9.72%
36.60%
25.48%
5.69%
12.62%
3.11%

Goods & Services (SA)

Exports
Imports
508,716.6
459,706.4
509,649.2
461,362.4
536,213.4
488,897.2
535,250.4
497,959.8
523,035.3
487,522.6
566,466.2
514,163.9
571,963.9
495,581.8
586,851.6
519,203.8
594,815.5
538,093.6
589,959.8
543,405.9
599,780.4
604,890.0
627,098.1
584,575.4

Q/Q
Exports
9.90%
0.18%
5.21%
-0.18%
-2.28%
8.30%
0.97%
2.60%
1.36%
-0.82%
1.66%
4.55%

Imports
12.54%
0.36%
5.97%
1.85%
-2.10%
5.46%
-3.61%
4.77%
3.64%
0.99%
11.31%
-3.36%

Balance of Payments of China

million of US dollars
2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3
current account balance
23,544.0 53,704.4 70,779.0 45,111.7 47,556.0 50,882.8 -30,938.1
credit
547,316.4 616,279.8 649,967.0 646,362.4 623,403.6 655,423.1 668,198.5
debit
523,772.4 562,575.4 579,187.9 601,250.8 575,847.6 604,540.2 699,136.6
goods and services balance 3,818.3 68,749.8 73,251.7 86,025.1 40,068.6 62,358.0 -21,320.2
credit
474,943.4 573,018.6 591,051.5 609,303.5 557,246.5 597,140.1 608,149.3
debit
471,125.1 504,268.8 517,799.8 523,278.4 517,177.9 534,782.1 629,469.5
goods balance
21,901.8 90,919.9 102,948.3 105,824.8 67,534.0 90,026.7 11,799.8
credit
431,277.1 526,430.5 543,138.5 556,040.4 510,967.8 546,697.5 557,198.3
debit
409,375.3 435,510.7 440,190.2 450,215.6 443,433.8 456,670.8 545,398.5
services balance
-18,083.5 -22,170.1 -29,696.6 -19,799.7 -27,465.4 -27,668.8 -33,120.0
credit
43,666.3 46,588.1 47,913.0 53,263.1 46,278.7 50,442.5 50,951.0
debit
61,749.8 68,758.2 77,609.6 73,062.8 73,744.1 78,111.3 84,071.0
income balance
17,268.1 -15,646.6 -3,269.4 -40,491.6
8,979.8 -9,171.6 -6,152.2
credit
59,612.7 30,551.3 46,216.1 24,061.3 54,080.3 44,984.2 47,307.5
debit
42,344.6 46,197.8 49,485.5 64,552.9 45,100.5 54,155.7 53,459.7
current transfers balance
2,457.6
601.2
796.7
-421.8 -1,492.4 -2,303.6 -3,465.7
credit
12,760.3 12,709.9 12,699.3 12,997.6 12,076.9 13,298.8 12,741.7
debit
10,302.7 12,108.7 11,902.6 13,419.5 13,569.3 15,602.3 16,207.4
capital & financial account balance 56,105.6 -41,245.6 -51,700.0 20,023.5 90,069.8 28,586.7
1,489.7
894.1
816.0 1,072.6
1,570.2
852.2
capital account balance
financial account balance
54,616.0 -42,139.7 -52,515.9 18,950.9 88,499.6 27,734.6
direct investment balance
48,854.3 41,144.9 38,503.2 62,617.7 31,925.1 45,624.4
9,293.8 11,114.9 4,608.7 22,761.9 14,077.7 9,973.6
portfolio investment balance
other investment balance
-3,532.1 -94,399.5 -95,627.8 -66,428.7 42,496.8 -27,863.5
reserve assets
-74,645.3 11,755.7
440.7 -34,102.6 -156,969.7 -46,584.3
-5,004.3 -24,214.4 -19,519.8 -31,032.6 19,344.0 -32,885.3
net errors & omissions
credit
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 19,344.0
0.0
debit
5,004.3 24,214.4 19,519.8 31,032.6
0.0 32,885.3
Provisonal data (own estimate)
Own estimate
Note: Official balance of payments data are released by SAFE, usually at the end of next quarter.

2013Q4
31,820.9
699,240.4
667,419.6
59,582.2
649,117.6
589,535.4
90,392.7
595,178.4
504,785.6
-30,810.5
53,939.2
84,749.8
-23,223.2
37,505.7
60,728.9
-4,538.1
12,617.2
17,155.2