Argentina Corn Production Forecast 2013/2014

by Eduardo Petazze
Gross production of corn for all purposes is estimated at 30.6 million tonnes, compared to an official estimate of 32.1 million
tonnes.
Net production to marketing is estimated at 25.8 million tonnes (previous estimate 25.6 million), compared to an estimated 25
million tons of the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires.
The SIIA of Argentina has released its Agriculture Weekly Report (pdf, 32 pages)
Also see: Agriculture Monthly Report June 2014 pdf, 10 pages
The following summary is an update to our estimate for corn production.
Forecasting Argentina Corn Production June 19, 2014
Units: Hectares - tons - kilograms / hectare
Corn 2013/2014 Forecast
Planted
Loss (1)
(2)
To harvest Production Yield % LT-Avg
Weekly status @ May 15, 2014
5,698,370 1,341,540 1,482,470
2,874,360 29,629,867 6,801
19.8%
Change
206,890
-67,700
979,340
-704,750
1,068,228
ARGENTINA (Gross data)
5,905,260 1,273,840 2,461,810
2,169,610 30,698,096 6,628
22.1%
BAIRES
25 de Mayo
110,000
32,800
44,190
33,010
566,795 7,342
-0.3%
BAIRES
Baha Blanca
6,600
4,850
0
1,750
8,064 4,608
-5.3%
BAIRES
Bolivar
101,000
6,010
61,610
33,380
650,782 6,851
2.1%
BAIRES
Bragado
100,200
12,980
71,950
15,270
647,855 7,428
1.6%
BAIRES
Gral Madariaga
60,000
27,790
18,470
13,740
191,927 5,959
5.7%
BAIRES
Junn
92,500
22,870
62,910
6,720
628,310 9,024
10.1%
BAIRES
La Plata
195,650
15,750
176,080
3,820
1,388,223 7,717
15.0%
BAIRES
Lincoln
28,100
7,430
17,810
2,860
177,497 8,587
8.0%
BAIRES
Pehuaj
280,000
68,690
155,240
56,070
1,615,606 7,646
1.5%
BAIRES
Pergamino
63,000
1,480
58,950
2,570
529,972 8,615
8.4%
BAIRES
Pigu
60,000
46,420
11,580
2,000
51,956 3,826
-13.9%
BAIRES
Salliquel
115,000
98,120
8,280
8,600
83,973 4,975
-7.6%
BAIRES
Tandil
164,000
96,470
22,440
45,090
394,647 5,844
-0.5%
BAIRES
Tres Arroyos
116,950
22,030
0
94,920
637,800 6,719
11.5%
CATAMARCA
2,600
1,150
0
1,450
7,574 5,223
9.5%
CHACO
212,500
19,810
23,220
169,470
711,928 3,695
26.5%
FORMOSA
8,000
360
1,440
6,200
24,475 3,203
-2.2%
CORDOBA Laboulaye
388,000
78,630
292,500
16,870
2,003,078 6,475
-6.6%
CORDOBA Marcos Jurez
210,000
18,240
152,980
38,780
1,922,540 10,026
10.8%
CORDOBA Ro Cuarto
565,700
27,290
288,190
250,220
3,470,792 6,446
9.8%
CORDOBA San Francisco
525,000
117,490
97,150
310,360
2,905,307 7,129
12.6%
CORDOBA Villa Mara
243,800
80,450
14,110
149,240
1,323,961 8,105
23.6%
CORRIENTES
12,800
2,280
2,300
8,220
24,828 2,360
-1.8%
E. RIOS
Paran
90,000
4,410
83,990
1,600
619,975 7,244
9.5%
E. RIOS
Rosario del Tala
180,000
10,820
150,480
18,700
971,033 5,740
-4.3%
JUJUY
4,510
160
0
4,350
21,072 4,844
21.1%
LA PAMPA Gral. Pico
314,000
210,430
96,800
6,770
474,080 4,577
-11.4%
LA PAMPA Santa Rosa
109,000
71,180
25,520
12,300
116,776 3,088
-16.5%
MISIONES
30,820
1,000
29,100
720
66,400 2,227
35.5%
SALTA
181,045
10,815
0
170,230
810,353 4,760
14.9%
SAN LUIS
210,000
8,700
134,380
66,920
954,658 4,742
9.2%
STA. FE
Avellaneda
68,700
25,780
6,450
36,470
153,016 3,565
3.3%
STA. FE
Cda. de Gmez
168,385
4,795
114,670
48,920
1,557,704 9,522
15.3%
STA. FE
Casilda
92,400
660
61,900
29,840
868,332 9,465
17.0%
STA. FE
Rafaela
118,000
55,580
39,370
23,050
374,044 5,992
-2.3%
STA. FE
Venado Tuerto
110,000
5,580
83,800
20,620
1,012,158 9,693
8.2%
SGO. DEL ESTERO
511,000
49,040
53,950
408,010
2,431,886 5,264
28.7%
TUCUMAN
56,000
5,500
0
50,500
298,721 5,915
13.2%
Adjust; for forage
-950,000 -204,927 -396,040
-349,033 -4,938,511
Grain for marketing
4,955,260 1,068,913
3,886,347
25,759,585 6,628
Other estimate:
Official monthly estimate
5,900,000
32,100,000
Bolsa de Cereales BAIRES
3,570,000
197,000 1,497,615
1,875,385 25,000,000 7,412
BCR GEA
4,330,000
891,100
3,438,900
24,455,910 7,112
USDA 2013/2014
3,400,000
24,000,000 7,059
Ref: USDA 2014/2015
3,650,000
26,000,000 7,123
(1) Non-harvestable area (as reported by SIIA plus our own estimate)
(2) Harvested area at the reporting date
Note: The weekly drop in corn yield, average, is caused by the added surface in regions whose yield is below the country.
PS: Several ripe cornfields awash in "25 de Mayo" at high risk of diminishing yields or inability to harvest.