Appendices

299

Appendix 1 Denitions of Basic Statistical Terms Statistical evaluations of data are warranted by the fact that the true mean concentration  (the population mean) will never be known and that we can only . As a reection of this fact, there are two parallel estimate it with a sample mean x systems of symbols. The attributes of the theoretical distribution of mean concentrations are called parameters (true mean , variance s2 , and standard deviation s). The estimates of parameters obtained from sample results are called , variance s2, and standard deviation s). statistic (sample mean x
Variablex Mean of possible measurements of variable (the population mean, true mean)l Individual measurement of variablexi
N P i1

xi

, with Nnumber of possible measurements

 Mean of measurements generated by sample (sample mean)x Sample mean for simple random sampling and systematic random sampling:
n P i1

xi

 x

, with nnumber of sample measurements

Sample mean for stratied random sampling: 3  x

r P k 1

k , with x k stratum mean; Wk fraction of population represented by Wk x

stratum k; knumber of strata in the range from 1 to r Population variancer2 and variance of samples2 Sample variance for simple random sampling and systematic random sampling: !2 4 s2 s2
n P i 1

x2 i

n P i1

xi

Sample variance for stratied random sampling: 5

r P k1

n1

2 W k s2 k , with sk stratum variance; Wk fraction of population represented

by stratum k; knumber of strata in the range from 1 to r

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Population standard deviationr and standard deviation of samples 6 s p s2

Standard error of sample (standard error of mean)sx  7

Statistical tests of environmental chemical data enable us to compare two sets of data to each other or to compare a set to an action level and make decisions based on these comparisons with a chosen level of condence. Statistical tests are usually based on the assumptions that the measurements are normally distributed on a Gaussian curve and dened by the standard deviation s, as shown in Figure 1, and that the errors of measurements are random and independent (each given error affects a measurement but does not affect others). Condence level establishes the probability of making a correct decision. For example, a 95 percent condence level means that a correct decision will be made 95 times out of a hundred and an incorrect decision will be made ve times out of a hundred. Condence level is dened as a function of probability a: if a is 0.05, the condence level is 95 percent; or if a is 0.20, the condence level is 80 percent. Condence limits are a range of values, within which the true mean concentration is expected to lie. Condence interval is a range of values within condence limits that is expected to capture the true mean concentration with a chosen probability. For example, a 95 percent condence interval of the mean is a range of sample concentrations that will capture the true mean concentration 95 percent of the time,

s sx  p n

Figure 1 Normal (Gaussian) distribution, condence limits, and condence intervals.

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301

but this value will be different every time. The concepts of condence limits and condence intervals are illustrated in Figure 1. Students t-test is frequently used in statistical evaluations of environmental ) of normally chemical data. It establishes a relationship between the mean (x distributed sample measurements, their sample standard deviation (s), and the population mean (). Condence intervals may be calculated based on Students t-test (Equation 10). The upper limit of the condence interval is compared to the action level to determine whether the sampled medium contains a hazardous concentration of a pollutant. If the upper condence limit is below the action level, the medium is not hazardous; otherwise the opposite conclusion is reached.
Probability, level of signicancea Condence level, percent(1a)6100 Degrees of freedomdf 8 df n 1

Critical valuet Students t-test 9 t s  x

 x

Condence interval for lCI 10 +ta sx CI x  with ta obtained from Table 1 for appropriate degrees of freedom

Action levelCa Appropriate number of samples to collect from a solid waste (nancial constraints not considered)n 11 n
2 t2 as

2 Ca x

with one-sided ta obtained from Table 1 for appropriate degrees

of freedom

Statistical tests may be one-sided (one-tailed) or two-sided (two-tailed). One-sided condence intervals are used for testing the data that are compared to action levels to determine whether the mean concentration is greater or lower than the action level. Two-sided condence limits are used for comparing two sets of data to each other to establish whether they differ, for example, for comparing sample concentrations to background concentrations. One-sided and two-sided condence intervals are illustrated in Figure 2.

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Figure 2 One-sided and two-sided condence intervals.

302

Appendices Table 1 Tabulated values of Students t critical values

a for one-sided condence interval Degrees of freedom df (n1) 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01

303

0.005

One-sided condence interval 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 97.5% 99% 99.5%

a for determining two-sided condence interval 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01

Two-sided condence interval 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% t values 90% 95% 98% 99%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 40 60 120 ?

0.727 0.617 0.584 0.569 0.559 0.553 0.549 0.546 0.543 0.542 0.540 0.539 0.538 0.537 0.536 0.535 0.534 0.534 0.533 0.533 0.532 0.532 0.532 0.531 0.531 0.531 0.531 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.529 0.527 0.526 0.524

1.000 0.816 0.765 0.741 0.727 0.718 0.711 0.706 0.703 0.700 0.697 0.695 0.694 0.692 0.691 0.690 0.689 0.688 0.688 0.687 0.686 0.686 0.685 0.685 0.684 0.684 0.684 0.683 0.683 0.683 0.681 0.679 0.677 0.674

1.376 1.061 0.978 0.941 0.920 0.906 0.896 0.889 0.883 0.879 0.876 0.873 0.870 0.868 0.866 0.865 0.863 0.862 0.861 0.860 0.859 0.858 0.858 0.857 0.856 0.856 0.855 0.855 0.854 0.854 0.851 0.848 0.845 0.842

1.963 1.386 1.250 1.190 1.156 1.134 1.119 1.108 1.100 1.093 1.088 1.083 1.079 1.076 1.074 1.071 1.069 1.067 1.066 1.064 1.063 1.061 1.060 1.059 1.058 1.058 1.057 1.056 1.055 1.055 1.050 1.046 1.041 1.036

3.078 1.886 1.638 1.533 1.476 1.440 1.415 1.397 1.383 1.372 1.363 1.356 1.350 1.345 1.340 1.337 1.333 1.330 1.328 1.325 1.323 1.321 1.319 1.318 1.316 1.315 1.314 1.313 1.311 1.310 1.303 1.296 1.289 1.282

6.314 2.920 2.353 2.132 2.015 1.943 1.895 1.860 1.833 1.812 1.796 1.782 1.771 1.761 1.753 1.746 1.740 1.734 1.729 1.725 1.721 1.717 1.714 1.711 1.708 1.706 1.703 1.701 1.699 1.697 1.684 1.671 1.658 1.645

12.706 4.303 3.182 2.776 2.571 2.447 2.365 2.306 2.262 2.228 2.201 2.179 2.160 2.145 2.131 2.120 2.110 2.101 2.093 2.086 2.080 2.074 2.069 2.064 2.060 2.056 2.052 2.048 2.045 2.042 2.021 2.000 1.980 1.960

31.821 6.965 4.541 3.747 3.365 3.143 2.998 2.896 2.821 2.764 2.718 2.681 2.650 2.624 2.602 2.583 2.567 2.552 2.539 2.528 2.518 2.508 2.500 2.492 2.485 2.479 2.473 2.467 2.462 2.457 2.423 2.390 2.358 2.326

63.657 9.925 5.841 4.604 4.032 3.707 3.499 3.355 3.250 3.169 3.106 3.055 3.012 2.977 2.947 2.921 2.898 2.878 2.861 2.845 2.831 2.819 2.807 2.797 2.787 2.779 2.771 2.763 2.756 2.750 2.704 2.660 2.617 2.576

303