Copyright 1999, Society of Petroleum Engineers Inc.

This paper was prepared for presentation at the 1999 SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference
and Exhibition held in Jakarta, Indonesia, 2022 April 1999.
This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE Program Committee following review of
information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper, as
presented, have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to
correction by the author(s). The material, as presented, does not necessarily reflect any position
of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its officers, or members. Papers presented at SPE
meetings are subject to publication review by Editorial Committees of the Society of Petroleum
Engineers. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper for
commercial purposes without the written consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is
prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300
words; illustrations may not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment
of where and by whom the paper was presented. Write Librarian, SPE, P.O. Box 833836,
Richardson, TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435.
Abstract
Teikoku Oil Co. Ltd. (TOC) and NKK Corp. established a joint
pilot project in 1994 in order to provide pipeline application and
evaluation of NKK's gas hydraulic simulation engine
(GASTRAN) and to co-develop a Demand Forecasting Model
(DFC). When the pilot project finished in March 1997, a
commercial system, called Support Operation and Monitoring
Application of Pipeline Simulator (SMAPS), was installed in
TOC's operation center.
The DFC, which is based on an artificial neural network
architecture, has several advantages for sales forecasting
especially as several dozen delivery points that have different
sales patterns are connected to the pipeline network. The results
from DFC can be easily used for scenarios in off-line simulation
to predict future pipeline situations when it is attached to the
SMAPS system. It automatically assists the pipeline operator by
reducing his workload and evaluating operation plans.
Introduction
This paper describes the development and operation of a new
gas demand forecasting system and describes and evaluates the
prediction results.
The conventional statistical and analytical method of
demand forecasting is difficult to maintain because it requires
that several models and parameters for each node (demand
point) be constantly defined and updated.
TOC wanted to develop a pipeline operation support system
based on an on-line simulator that was able to give useful
information for the routine operation of an actual pipeline
network and include the ability to predict demand changes that
could be put into the simulator as boundary conditions for each
node.
The pipeline operation support system which we developed
includes a demand forecasting system based on an artificial
neural network model.
Pipeline System
Outline of Pipeline Network. The main pipeline is called the
Tokyo Line and is about 300km long, crossing Japan from
Niigata Prefecture on the Sea of Japan to the Pacific Ocean, just
outside of Tokyo. In all, we have about 850km of pipelines,
including the Tokyo Line. There are about 100 gas demand
points along these pipelines where gas is provided to customers
who are mostly local distributing companies (LDC). They buy
gas from us and sell it to businesses and households, etc.
In 1992 we built a compressor station in Nagano Prefecture
in the middle of the Tokyo Line to increase the gas transmission
capacity to meet increasing customer demands. However, we
need to increase our capacity again and are building a new loop
pipeline next to the Tokyo Line. It will be called the New
Tokyo Line. The first phase of construction was completed at
the end of l997. It consists of 55km of pipeline between Kubiki,
Niigata Prefecture and Nojiri, Nagano Prefecture. The second
phase of construction, about 100km between Nojiri and Oiwake,
Nagano Prefecture, is due for completion in 1999. The pipeline
network map is shown in Fig. 1.
Demand Pattern. As most of our customers are gas distributors,
the demand greatly fluctuates on a daily basis depending on the
weather and climate conditions. Each customer operates a gas
holder to accommodate any demand changes creating a time lag
which causes the gas flow rate from our pipeline to be affected
by the operation and capacity of each gas holder. Therefore,
accurate demand forecasting for each customer is important to
ensure that the pipeline pressure and gas supply are adequately
maintained. Figure 2 shows a typical customer demand pattern.
Pipeline Operation. Operating conditions of the transmission
pipeline and gas flow at all delivery points are remotely
monitored by the SCADA system in the pipeline operation
center which is located in Kashiwazaki City, also in Niigata
prefecture. Natural gas is mostly supplied from gas producing
plants in the Minami-Nagaoka gas field which is operated by
SPE 54348
Short Term Gas Demand Forecasting Based on Artificial Neural Network
Ritsuo Sato, NKK Corporation and Kazuyoshi Miura, Teikoku Oil Company Ltd.
2 RITSUO SATO, KAZUYOSHI MIURA SPE 54348
TOC. Pipeline operators in the operation center keep their eyes
on the balance between supply and demand.
In recent years, because of increased customer demand the
pipeline load has increased so much that the system does not
have enough linepack to accommodate for the swings in demand
in spite of a high (50 or 70 bars) MAOP (Maximum Allowable
Operation Pressure) of the pipeline. This means that not only
does production rate of the wells have to be carefully monitored
to meet daily demand changes but also it has become difficult to
maintain the operation pressure within an allowable range
without using hourly production rate adjustment.
In the operation center, the statistical model of daily demand
forecasting has been utilized for ten years but for the past couple
of years the operators have requested development of an hourly
forecast model to realize proper operation.
SMAPS (Support operation and Monitoring
Application of Pipeline Simulation)
Development. In order to assess the need for an off-line pipeline
simulator, we did a basic survey in 1984, developed it on our
own in 1985 when we started to use it in the Production
department for engineering research and planning. In 1990, we
bought a commercial Pipeline Simulator Software and have used
it for planning a compressor station, developing new pipelines,
and researching methods for more effective pipeline operations.
The simulator was an off-line simulator and not used by the
operation center. However, by 1993, on-line pipeline simulators
to assist pipeline operators were becoming a reality in North
America and we began to conduct a survey for it in our own
company.
In July 1994, TOC and NKK Corporation established a joint
pilot project. The main purposes of the project were to provide
pipeline application and evaluation of NKKs pipeline simulator
called Gas Hydraulic Simulation Engine (GASTRAN), to co-
develop a demand forecasting model, and to develop an
integrated pipeline operation support system.
We introduced the completed system to the operation center
in February 1997 when we did a final function check and user
training. From April 1997, we officially started to use the
software, called Support Operation and Monitoring Application
of Pipeline Simulator (SMAPS).
System Configuration. Figure 3 outlines this system, including
SMAPS. This system consists of a UNIX-based computer
server that performs the simulation and NeXT Step-based MMI
machines that display computed results and accept instructions
from operators. Each machine is connected via Ethernet,
accepts on-line input of pressure, flow, and temperature
information from the SCADA system, and accepts and submits
operating instructions and computed results.
Outline of Functions. Figure 4 shows the relationship between
the subsystems that configure this main system. The functions
of each subsystem are described below.
PLSM creates a simulation model using (CAD-like) mouse
operations.
RTS acquires measured data (e.g., pressure, flow) from each
pipeline via the SCADA system, synchronizes it with the
real time, and executes a dynamic simulation of the entire
pipeline. RTS thus closely monitors the flow conditions
and any hardware failures throughout the entire pipeline
system, and calculates the precise amount of linepack.
PLS provides an off-line pipeline simulation that has
independent pipeline models. It provides planning
support in the case of engineering and planning new
pipelines. It also provides daily operational support using
short-term forecast calculations. The demand for each
delivery point, the production plan of the gas production
plant, the operational conditions of compressors, and
control valves which can all be set arbitrarily and are used
as boundary conditions for a simulation scenario. When a
demand is forecast with the present value as the start point
(i.e., operation support information) the PLS can use the
latest simulation results obtained by RTS.
D/S DB is a utility that simplifies entry of the scenario into
the PLS. D/S DB can register multiple past result patterns
and forecast results, and arbitrarily select and use one of
these patterns during PLS execution. D/S DB can also set
the total demand for each group (e.g., each line) and can
automatically use the registered patterns to create
scenarios that calculate hourly data.
Outline of Demand Forecasting System
Analyzing Demand Characteristics. Before constructing a
model of the demand forecasting system (DFC), we analyzed
the demand characteristics of several delivery points.
This analysis used hourly demand patterns and actual
temperature data from 17 delivery points. We analyzed the
relationship between the temperature and demand change
patterns. As a result, the demand patterns of the LDCs to be
predicted by this system have the following characteristics:
The basic demand pattern of each LDC is based on the
capacity and control method of the gas holder.
Since a gas holder lies between the LDC and the end user, a
time lag occurs and past temperature data is closely
related to the demand from LDCs.
The degree of time lag changes with each gas company. In
fact, even in the same company it may vary at each
delivery point depending on the time of day and the
operational method of each gas holder. Since the demand
differs depending on the LCD and the time of day and is
closely related to the temperature, the temperature
information from the previous 24 hours to the present is
needed.
This close relationship between time lag, temperature, and
operational method of each delivery point makes the
conventional statistical and analytical methods of predicting
very difficult to operate and update. In order to make an
accurate forecasting model using the statistical and analytical
SPE 54348 SHORT TERM GAS DEMAND FORECASTING BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK 3
method, the parameters and time frame for each delivery point
must be decided, the forecasting model also has to be changed
for each delivery point, and parameters must be redefined and
updated for seasonal and long-term demand changes. This
method requires constant maintenance.
Based on the above analysis results, we researched a new
forecasting method and decided upon a neural network which
was attracting a great deal of attention at the time.
We concluded that the neural network is suitable for this
system because of the following characteristics:
it is easy to construct a forecasting model
it has a learning function that is able to automatically set
adequate parameters for each delivery point and time
frame
it has a regular learning function that enables it to follow
seasonal and long-term demand changes
Construction of the DFC Model. We considered the following
points when constructing the demand forecasting model (DFC).
The DFC is common to all delivery points, it is
maintenance free and can learn to determine the most
suitable parameters for each point
The DFC system can estimate demand for each delivery
point on an hourly basis and provide an accuracy similar
to the existing forecasting model which was based on
daily demand
The DFC system has a sufficient forecasting range so that it
can request adjustments to the production rate at the
production plants
The DFC collects past temperature data which is important
because of the close relationship between the gas holder
time lag and the current demand
Figure 5 shows the structure of the forecasting model. The
forecasting model consists of an ordinary three-layer network
which adopts the back propagation method as a learning
function. The input and output layers of this model are as
follows:
[Input layer]
Hourly demand pattern from 6:00am of the previous day to
5:00am of the current day
Hourly temperature pattern from 6:00am of the previous
day to 5:00am of the current day
Hourly forecast temperature pattern from 6:00am one day
to 12:00 midnight the following day
The day of the week (Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
before/after a holiday, holiday, etc.)
[Output layer]
Forecast demand pattern per hour from 6:00am one day
to12:00 midnight the following day
The forecasting model is currently running at 27 delivery
points. It simplifies the learning of basic demand patterns for
each delivery point because it uses a constant 43 hour forecast
range which is updated at 6:00am each day. This ensures that
there is always enough prediction data for practical estimating
and is not too long to be unrealistic. The forecasting model,
therefore, only has to learn the latest data once a day. However,
it constantly updates the latest actual temperature data. This
helps to lower the effects of a demand forecasting error due to a
weather forecast inaccuracy, so the predicting accuracy
improves. After optimizing the number of the hidden layer and
learning parameters, the learning time for the 27 demand points
takes just about one hour on a Pentium 166 MHz PC system.
System Configuration. Figure 6 shows the configuration of this
system. The system connects SMAPS, SCADA systems,
meteorological information service terminals via Ethernet and
can acquire on-line the past demand, current and estimated
temperatures which are necessary for learning and forecasting.
The demand forecasting system runs on Windows 95. This
system which also can be used for all demand points consists of
a database that stores actual demand data for each delivery
point, estimated and actual temperature in each area along the
pipeline, and a neural network model that can learn and forecast
. The forecasting procedure is as follows.
First, it uses the actual demand and temperature of the
previous month which satisfy the relationship shown in Figure 5
so that the system learns the forecasting models for each
delivery point. Next, the previous days demand pattern, the
previous days temperature patterns, day of the week and
forecast temperature patterns are input into the learned
forecasting model to obtain a prediction demand pattern for each
delivery point. The obtained demand forecasting pattern for
each point is checked and modified by the DFC, and delivered
as a boundary condition of the SMAPS PLS or D/S DB pattern
model.
Evaluation. Before actual implementation, we selected four
different types of demand points from among all demand points
to be estimated. We evaluated the forecast results using the past
demand and temperature data. Figure 7 shows the forecast
results of a demand point (mainly for consumer use) whose time
lag due to the gas holder is small. As clarified in Fig. 7, the
forecast results agreed quite well with the actual results. They
agreed with the actual results even when the peak demand
changed dramatically in the morning, which is a characteristic of
this demand point. Figure 8 shows the forecast results of a
demand point (mainly commercial use) whose time lag due to
the gas holders is large. It shows how this system follows the
differences in demand patterns of high and low temperatures,
and of the differences between a weekday and the weekend.
We also checked the total error range based on data collected
for about three months in the winter. We used mean absolute
percent error (MAPE) which is based the daily demand as
explained in Eq. 1.
MAPE
Qd Qd
Qd
n
d
forecast actual
actual i
n
(%) =

1
(1)
4 RITSUO SATO, KAZUYOSHI MIURA SPE 54348
where
Qd
forecast
= Total daily forecast demand
Qd
actual
= Total daily actual demand
n = Number of samples
Table 1 shows the forecast results. Since all predicted errors
prove within 2 to 4%, this system provides enough accuracy to
be used as a boundary condition for a PLS computation in
SMAPS in order to adjust the production rate from the
production plant.
Operation of DFC
Operation Procedure. Once a day at an appointed time the
operator enters a command for the DFC to routinely update and
examine the relationship between the past air temperature and
demand data and execute the learning steps in order to set
parameters for the next 43 hour prediction pattern. Therefore,
the pipeline operator can make predictions at any time. The
DFC can be operated when disconnected from SMAPS Figure 9
shows the standard operation procedure of the DFC.
State of operation. The forecast system was implemented in
April 1997 after a final evaluation the previous winter. The
following is an evaluation to date of the prediction results during
routine operation.
It should be recognized that there is larger error in the
practical operation than in the final evaluation period because of
the difference between the predicted and actual temperatures.
Figure 10 is the real display image of the hourly prediction
results during one forecast period (43 hours). It shows that the
forecast can agree with the actual demand changes. Figure 11
also shows the forecast results which represent the daily value of
the total demand for a long period of time. At the beginning of
January 1997, there was a significant error because of the
Christmas and New Year holiday season. It can also be seen
that error exceeds 10 % especially on the weekend but because
the demand dramatically decreases, the absolute error is
negligent. Table 2 shows the percentage error for each month.
Although the new prediction model is calculated on a hourly
basis the sum total of these hourly errors indicates a better than
average error ratio than the previous statistical model (3%)
which is based on daily demand.
Summary
As described above, this new forecasting system is running
successfully and is a very effective and practical tool for the
pipeline operator to obtain future demand changes. The main
advantages over conventional models are that it requires no
maintenance to keep the model running properly regardless of
the season and a single model applies to several customers.
However, there are patterns that indicate large errors after a
particular period ( e.g. holiday season) because actual data from
the previous few days influence the forecasting. We need to
modify the duration of the learning period and/or actual input
learning data in order to rectify this situation.
SPE 54348 SHORT TERM GAS DEMAND FORECASTING BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK 7
SCADA system
Man-Machine Interface Calculation Server
Demand Forecast PC
(W indows95)
Meteorological Inf ormation Server
Actual Demand
Actual Temperature
Temperature Forecast
Neural Network
Temperature
Database
Demand
Database
Demand Forecast System
Planning Simulation
(PLS) D/S DB
Forecast
Results
SMAPS system
Fig. 6 System configuration
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2/28
Sun
3/01
Mon
3/02
Tue
3/03
Wed
3/04
Thu
3/05
Fri
3/06
Sat
3/07
Sun
Day
D
e
m
a
n
d


[

N
m
3
/
h

]
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
[


C

]
Actual
Forecast
Temperature
Fig. 7 Forecast results LDC1
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2/28
Sun
3/01
Mon
3/02
Tue
3/03
Wed
3/04
Thu
3/05
Fri
3/06
Sat
3/07
Sun
Day
D
e
m
a
n
d


[

N
m
3
/
h

]
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
[


C

]
Actual
Forecast
Temperature
Fig. 8 Forecast results LDC2