THE QUESTION OF THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Committee: DISEC Study Guide

Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants. We know more about war that we know about peace, more about killing that we know about living. - Omar N. Bradley

KCLMUN 2013-14 | Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Overview ..................................................................................................................... 3 UN Measures ............................................................................................................... 3 The NPT ................................................................................................................... 4 The CBT ................................................................................................................... 4 The ICJs Position...................................................................................................... 5 Nuclear Arms in the Middle East .................................................................................. 6 Iran .......................................................................................................................... 6 Israel ....................................................................................................................... 7 Recent Developments .................................................................................................. 8 Key Points to Consider................................................................................................. 9

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OVERVIEW
In nuclear war all men are cremated equal. - Dexter Gordon
The advent of nuclear technology presents a form of renewable energy superior to most in its levels of efficiency and sustainability. Accessorily to such an ideal is the threat and destructive potential of nuclear warfare. What was once a conceptual fear of atomic warfare became a palpable reality in Hiroshima in 1945. The impact of nuclear technology and the tension it creates continues to transcend borders and substantially pervade the foreign policy of nations worldwide. The ascent of nuclear weapons has resulted in a developing arms race in a world teetering on the edge of conflagration. Such an issue is accentuated in the Middle East a region of evolving tension and instability. Born of a war that observed the destruction caused by atomic bombs, the United Nations has, since its very conception, strived to end the spread of nuclear weapons worldwide. The success of such ongoing efforts is questionable as treaties concerning the prevention of nuclear weapons are not universal. Furthermore, once a country has been able to incorporate a sector of nuclear weaponry into their security framework, it becomes increasingly difficult to get them to dispose of them. Questions of balances of power and deterrence continue to pervade the policy decisions made by nations placing their own security above the idea of cooperation with an international peacekeeping body.

UN MEASURES
The UN must act to protect non-nuclear nations and global citizens from becoming victims to the advent of nuclear technology and illegal proliferation by states. The UN has arguably not been too successful in preventing the development of nuclear weapons globally, particularly within the Middle East. It has taken political and economic sanctions against Iran due to the states lack of cooperation on the issue of

KCLMUN 2013-14 | Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East nuclear proliferation, but the effectiveness of the sanctions is questionable. No action has been actively taken against Israel.

THE NPT
The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) went into effect on March 5, 1970. The impetus behind the NPT is to secure a universal method of prevention of nuclear proliferation. It stipulates: Article I: Each nuclear-weapons state (NWS) undertakes not to transfer, to any recipient, nuclear weapons, or other nuclear explosive devices, and not to assist any non-nuclear weapon state to manufacture or acquire such weapons or devices. Article II: Each non-NWS party undertakes not to receive, from any source, nuclear weapons, or other nuclear explosive devices; not to manufacture or acquire such weapons or devices; and not to receive any assistance in their manufacture. Article III: Each non-NWS party undertakes to conclude an agreement with the IAEA for the application of its safeguards to all nuclear material in all of the state's peaceful nuclear activities and to prevent diversion of such material to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. Article IV: 1. Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty. Israel, India and Pakistan have never signed the Treaty.

THE CBT
The Comprehensive Ban Treaty (CBT) was adopted by the General Assembly in 1996 but has not yet taken effect due to the non-ratification of eight states. The CBT was to create an obligation for all signatory states to prohibit any form of nuclear explosion testing within the nation and to refrain from any association or participation with nuclear explosion testing. The purpose of the CBT was to limit the ability of nations to develop nuclear weapons and to set such a prohibition to become an international norm. The US Senate has rejected the ratification of the Treaty, among 4

KCLMUN 2013-14 | Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East other nations. Obama has stated that he will work to get the CBT ratified and implemented, advocating the complete prohibition of nuclear testing. The Treaty has never been implemented.

THE ICJS POSITION

Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons was an advisory opinion delivered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 8 July 1996. The question of the legality of nuclear weapons was addressed by the Court. The decision was split 7 7 and procedurally the decision of the President was taken as the final one. Although 7 judges ruled that nuclear weapons should be definitively prohibited in all their forms, the Presidents position and that of the other judges differed. The final decision was consequently that nuclear weapons are not definitively illegal and may be used legally when the very survival of the nation is at stake. However, the good faith of nations must be relied upon to complete nuclear disarmament. In this way did the ICJ leave a narrow window open to those countries developing nuclear weapons.

The programme to stop nuclear by 2020 is just crazy. If there were a nuclear war, and humanity were wiped out, the Earth would breathe a sigh of relief.

-James Lovelock

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NUCLEAR ARMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The Middle East is a highly volatile region, with nations sharing tense relations and the Arab Spring increasing their instability. However, it is these relations that are difficult to fully understand or analyze particularly considering narrow and politicized media coverage. The UNs role in addressing the proposed issue is solely to ensure that nuclear weapons are not possessed in the region and to do so to the same standard as other countries worldwide. There are two situations in the Middle East that require focus concerning the issue of nuclear proliferation: Israel and Iran.

You don't have any communication between the Israelis and the Iranians. You have all sorts of local triggers for conflict. Having countries act on a hair trigger - where they can't afford to be second to strike - the potential for a miscalculation or a nuclear war through inadvertence is simply too high. - Dennis Ross

IRAN
Irans uranium enrichment program was initiated decades ago in secret. It is alleged that it was done through the acquisition of instructions and samples from Pakistans infamous atomic bomb manufacturer and proliferator, AQ Khan. In 2002, an exiled political opposition group in Iran declared the country to be secretly developing nuclear enrichment programs. The IAEA later alleged that the country had experimented with technologies critical for the manufacturing of nuclear weapons in the past decades. Iran has more than 17 declared nuclear facilities that they claim to be used for peaceful purposes. Iran is a party to the NPT but the UN has taken political and economic sanctions against Iran for its non-compliance. It is important to understand that the NPT does entitle Iran to enrich uranium and use the resource for civilian purposes, such as developing energy reactors. Yet 6

KCLMUN 2013-14 | Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East Article II prohibits any development of nuclear explosive devices. A total of six UN Security Council resolutions have called for Irans immediate suspension of any nuclear activities until appropriate investigations are conducted into the allegedly peaceful nature of the programs. Although the subject of a nuclear Iran has pervaded public discussion and media coverage for years, there has been no confirmation of the existence of nuclear weapons in the country. Analysts have attempted to guess at a timeline of the development of weapons in Iran and politicians have attempted to guess at the countrys intentions. Until now, no reliable conclusion has been reached. Also, it may not be true that Iran has something to hide in refusing investigations, as the countrys foreign policy is characterised by hostility to the West and is strongly against foreign intervention in the domestic issues of a nation. The suspicions do exist and Iran has not cooperated to allow for them to be confirmed or dispelled. Irans new president is recently attempting to allow for more cooperation and the position may be shifting.

ISRAEL
Israel manifests a position hostile to the majority if not all Arab countries. Such feelings of hostility are mutual and pose a continuing threat of instability in the region. Israel has also allegedly engaged in the use of chemical weapons against the people of Palestine (which has now been recognised as a country by the UN following a General Assembly resolution in 2012). As such, it is of the prime concern of this committee to ensure the prohibition of nuclear proliferation in Israel. Israel has not acceded to the NPT and refuses investigations of their nuclear plants to be carried out by UN bodies, posing a major issue for this committee. The Israeli government has never confirmed nor denied the existence of nuclear weapons, although it is now assumed that possession is confirmed after a nuclear technician published evidence about the program in 1986. The danger is posed by Israels possession of nuclear weapons is highly amplified by the threat posed to the non-nuclear state of Palestine. Israel has been suspected to have used chemical weapons against the people of Palestine, residing in the Gaza strip, and the tension between the two nations has not been simmering down. The protection of neighboring Palestine is an important issue 7

KCLMUN 2013-14 | Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East The balance of power in the Middle East and destruction caused by Israel in the region needs to be considered. President Bashar Al-Assad has cited that the development of weapons in Syria was conducted to deter Israels nuclear proliferation. Israel is continuously adamant about not acceding to any treaty to limit its possession of chemical or nuclear weapons amongst its hostile neighbours. Media focus and public opinion is directed towards the need to strip Iran and Syria of their illegal weapons, strategically ignoring those allegedly possessed by Israel. In a way, both Israel and Irans nuclear proliferation, as well as development of illegal weapons across the Middle East, is actually dependant on one another and the persisting conflict. They are two sides of the same coin, as one would not adamantly refuse the limitations of such weapons without the other doing the same.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
September 2013: The IAEA has rejected an Arab-backed resolution calling for measures regarding Israels alleged atomic arsenal. A resolution was presented at the annual IAEA conference stipulating concern about Israeli nuclear capabilities and calls upon Israel to accede to the NPT and place all its nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA safeguards. The resolution failed narrowly with 51 votes against, 43 votes in favour and 32 abstentions. The resolution attempted to get Israel to sign the NPT allow for the legally required UN investigations to take place annually. Israel responded by saying that the resolution is a form of Israel-bashing which reflects the politicization of the IAEA. Mid-October 2013: Talks in Geneva: Iran is said to have prepared a set of proposals that it will be taking to talks in Geneva in Mid-October 2013. Under their new president, Iran will be attempting negotiations with the P5 on the issue of nuclear proliferation for the first time. Their proposals are alleged to include a plan to reduce uranium enrichment to levels of 20 percent purity, which is the level required for the development of nuclear weapons. Spokesman for Iran have asserted their pro-active position to solving the issue of nuclear

KCLMUN 2013-14 | Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East proliferation in a short period of time, through positive cooperation with UN bodies. President Hassan Rouhani of Iran is calling for the immediate lifting of international political and economic sanctions that have been imposed on Iran.

You can't say civilization don't advance... in every war they kill you in a new way. - Will Rogers

KEY POINTS TO CONSIDER

The UNs jurisdiction cannot go beyond that which is acceded to by the nations themselves, yet Israel and Iran have continued to reject cooperation or any ascent to the NPT. While Irans position may be changing under the new president, there is no sign of Israel becoming any less hostile. The balance of power between Israel and Iran is contingent to halting the development of the nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The state of Palestine is an important consideration in this issue as Israels possession of nuclear weapons poses a particular danger to the underrepresented Palestinian people. How can the UN achieve a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East and/or work towards a viable solution to the issue of nuclear threats in the region when Israel has continuously rejected the NPT? What body of law may the UN apply to do so? Should sanctions be taken upon Israel, the same way they have been taken with Iran? Should the renewable and sustainable nature of nuclear technology allow for leeway and a laissez-faire attitude towards nuclear development? 9

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What measures can individual countries take to prohibit the sale of nuclear weapon materials by private companies to other countries and groups? Are economic sanctions, trade embargoes, and military pressure justifiable in such cases? Are they methods of oppressing certain nations? Or are they effective? The UN should currently be looking towards solutions that address issues including but not limited to: o o o o o A nuclear test ban; Universal acceptance of the NPT; Effective international arrangements to assure non-nuclear-weapon states against the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons; The consideration of the benefits and consequences of nations' requirements for fissile material considering the environmental Prevention of states acquiring nuclear weapons through the black market. Such concern may take into account uranium-purchasing countries such as Syria that have previously attempted to employ Russian scientists for high fees.

The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. It has merely made more urgent the necessity of solving an existing one. - Albert Einstein

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