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October 15, 2013

USD-INR: Near crucial levels A channel study shows that USD-INR overshot the longterm rising channel. However, the price couldnt sustain in the higher territory on a weekly closing basis and fell back into the channel. On the downside, the price has fallen below the medium-term rising trendline. The price paused there for a week and resumed with the fall. It has reached the 20-weekly moving average (WMA). The shortterm targets are 59.60 and 58.85. The reversal can be tightened to 63.03 on a closing basis. If the bulls manage to cross 63.03 on a closing basis then the structure would turn bullish from a short-term perspective.
012 M A M J J

Relative Strength Index (57.1325)

80 70 60 50 40

USDINR - INDIAN RUPEE (61.1500, 61.5500, 61.1250, 61.5500, +0.54000)

71 70 69 68 67 66 65

68.80

63.03

64 63 62 61

59.60 58.85

60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47

2013

2014

View Down

Reversal 63.03

Target 59.60/58.85

GBP-INR: Trading below key resistances As a result of a sharp rally, the GBP-INR had crossed the upper end of the medium-term rising channel but faced pressure in the higher territory. The short-term momentum indicator had given a sell signal from an overbought territory. Thus the price has been falling sharply since August. The fall is unfolding in a channelised manner. On the way down, the price has broken crucial supports, which will now act as resistances. The subsequent level on the downside will be 94.30. The reversal can be trailed to the swing high, ie 100.08, on a closing basis.
13 20 27 3 10 June 17 24

Relative Strength Index (45.0595)

80 70 60 50 40

GBPINR (97.3110, 98.5910, 97.2990, 98.3690, +1.03400)

110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96

100.08

94.30

95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81

1 8 July

15

22

29

5 12 Augus t

19

26

2 9 16 Septem ber

23

30 7 14 October

21

28

4 11 18 Novem ber

25

View Down

Reversal 100.08

Target 94.30

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Currency Eagle Eye

EUR-INR: A bearish trend In case of EUR-INR, the momentum on the way up was so sharp that the price had crossed the upper end of the long-term rising channel. It had achieved the mediumterm equality target (89.30) and even extended beyond that. The price had crossed the upper end of the mediumterm rising channel but faltered above the trendline. It turned out to be a reversal from a medium-term perspective. On the way down, the price seems to be forming a wave extension and the same can continue as long as the price trades below 85.08 on a closing basis. The subsequent levels on the downside are 81.10 and 78.55.
View Down Reversal 85.08 Target 81.10/78.55

MACD (-0.34501) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 EURINR (82.6260, 83.6900, 82.6200, 83.4680, +0.85400) 94 93 0.0% 92 91 90 89 88 23.6% 87 86

85.08
38.2%

85 84 83 82

50.0%

81.10 78.55

81 80

61.8%

79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71

100.0%

70 69 68

May

June

July

Augus t

Septem ber

October

Novem ber

Dec

JPY-INR: Downward trajectory

Relative Strength Index (43.3993) 80 70

As can be seen from the chart, the JPY-INR had broken out from the ending diagonal pattern as well as from the medium-term falling channel in May. From there the price formed a three-wave rise and achieved the equality as well as channel targets on the upside. From the high of 0.7081, the currency pair has entered a correction mode. It has formed an impulse on the downside and has broken the lower end of the channel. Recently it has retested the channel line and has started the next leg down. The swing high of 0.6400 will act as a reversal level on a closing basis. The short-term target remains at 0.5985.
March April

60 50 40 30 JPYINR (0.62190, 0.62740, 0.62010, 0.62430, +0.00550) 0.72 0.0% 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 23.6% 0.67 0.66 0.65 38.2%

0.6400
0.64 0.63

50.0%

0.62 0.61

61.8%

0.60

0.5985
0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54

100.0%

0.53 0.52 0.51

May

June

July

Augus t

Septem ber

October

Novem ber

Dece

View Down

Reversal 0.6400

Target 0.5985

For Private Circulation only

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