Section B: Statistics [60 marks] 6 In a large population, 60% have a particular gene, A.

Find the probability that, in a random sample of 10 people from the population, at most 3 have gene A. [2] A random sample of 100 people is taken from the population. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that between 30 and 70, inclusive, have gene A. [4] 7 An examination is taken by 800 students in a school. The mean mark, for all the students, is 68.5, and the standard deviation is 8.4. A random sample of 50 of the students is taken. Calculate the probability that the mean mark of this sample lies between 62 and 69. [3] A survey is carried out after the examination to investigate students opinions about the difficulty level of the examination. (i) Describe how you could obtain a systematic random sample of 50 students to take part in the survey. [2] Describe, in this context, one advantage that systematic sampling has compared to simple random sampling. [1]

(ii)

Two independent random variables X and Y have the distributions N ( 50, 82 ) and N ( 60, 52 ) respectively. Given that X 1 and X 2 are two independent observations of X, find

P ( 3Y X 1 X 2 75) .

[3]

Given that 5 independent observations from X and 2 independent observations from Y are randomly selected and W is the sample mean of these 7 observations, find P (W > 52 ) .

[4]

2 (a) Seven pairs of values of variables x and y are measured. Draw a sketch of a possible scatter diagram of the data when the product moment correlation coefficient is approximately zero. [1] (b) Observations of a cactus graft are made. The table gives the observed heights x cm of the graft at t weeks after grafting. t x 1 1.8 2 2.1 3 2.4 4 5.6 5 6.2 6 9.6 8 17.3 10 34.8 [2] [1]

(i) Give a sketch of the scatter diagram for the data, as shown on your calculator. (ii) Find the product moment correlation coefficient. (iii) Use a regression line to estimate (a) the observed height of the cactus graft at 4.5 weeks after grafting,

[2]

(b) the number of weeks after grafting if the observed height of the cactus graft is 7 cm, giving your answer correct to the nearest integer. [2] 10 A consumer association is studying the delivery time of a particular pizza company which claims that their mean delivery time is 60 minutes. A random sample of 80 deliveries is selected and the delivery time, x minutes, of each delivery is recorded. The results are summarised by x = 4940 ,

= 311620 .

The population mean delivery time is denoted by minutes. The null hypothesis = 60 is to be tested against the alternative hypothesis > 60 . Find the p-value of the test. [3] A second random sample of 100 deliveries is taken and the delivery time, y minutes, of each delivery is recorded, with results summarized by
y = 6110 ,

= 379468 .

Combining the two samples into a single sample, carry out a test, at the 5% significance level, of the same null and alternative hypotheses. [7]

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3 In a college with large student population, a proportion own an iPhone. A random sample of n students is taken from the population. The random variable X denotes the number of students in the sample who own an iPhone. (i) State, in context, two assumptions needed for X to be well modelled by a binomial distribution.

[2]

Assume now that X has the distribution B(n, p). (ii) (iii) Write down an expression for P(X = 1) in terms of n and p. Given that n = 10, P(X = 1) = 0.2 and 0.2 < p < 1, find the value of p.
1 . 4

[1] [1] [2]

Given that 3 E ( X ) = 4 Var ( X ) , show that p =

(iv) (v)

Given that the standard deviation of X is

3 , find the value of n. 2

[2]

The mean and standard deviation of X are denoted by and respectively. Find P ( X + ) . [3]

12

A player enters a shooting competition. In the competition, he has three shots to hit the target. 1 The probability that he is successful in hitting the target with his first shot is . 6 For each of his second and third shots, the probability of success is

twice the probability of success on the preceding shot if that shot was successful, the same as the probability of success on the preceding shot if that shot was unsuccessful. [3]
1 . 27

Construct a tree diagram showing the information.

(i) Find (ii) (iii)

Show that the probability that all three shots are successful is

[2]

the probability that at least two shots are successful, the probability that the second shot is successful given that exactly two shots are successful.

[3]

[4]

Jurong Junior College

Preliminary Examination 2011

H1 Mathematics 8864

JJC Preliminary Examination 2011 Mark Scheme H1 Mathematics

6 Let X be the no. of people having gene A out of 10 people. X ~ B(10, 0.6) P(X 3) = 0.0548 Let Y be the no of people having gene A out of 100 people. Y ~ B(100, 0.6) Since n is large, np = 100(0.6) = 60 > 5, nq = 100(0.4) = 40 > 5 npq = 100(0.6)(0.4) = 24 Y ~ N(60, 24) approximately P(30 Y 70) = P(29.5 <Y < 70.5) = 0.984 _________________________________________________________________________________ 7 Let X be the mark obtained by a student. E(X) = 68.5, Var(X) = 8.42 Since n = 50 is large, by Central Limit Theorem, 8.42 X N 68.5, 50
P ( 62 < X < 69 ) = 0.663
cc

(i) List all the students in some order, say by class (by marks). k =

800 = 16 . 50 Randomly choose a student from the first 16 and then choose every 16th student thereafter.

(ii) More precise inferences can be obtained from systematic sampling because the students selected are spread evenly, in terms of classes (marks), over the entire population. Or: Quick in obtaining a sample as choosing every 16th student from a list is faster than randomly choosing 50 from the 800 students [second stage is easier to conduct]. _________________________________________________________________________________ 8
E ( 3Y X 1 X 2 ) = 3(60) 50 50 = 80

Var ( 3Y X 1 X 2 ) =

32 ( 52 ) + 82 + 82 = 353

3Y X 1 X 2 N(80, 353) P(3Y X1 X2 75) = 0.395

W =
E (W ) = Var (W ) =
P (W > 52 ) =
JJC Prelim 2011

X1 + X 2 + X 3 + X 4 + X 5 +Y1 +Y2 7

Or:

1 370 [5(50) + 2(60)] = 7 7 1 370 5 82 ) + 2 ( 52 ) = 2 ( 7 49 0.622

P (W > 52 ) =

W = X 1 + X 2 + ... + X 5 + X 1 + Y2 E(W) = 5(50) + 2(60) = 370 Var (W ) = 5 ( 82 ) + 2 ( 52 ) = 370

P (W > 52 7 )

= 0.622

H1 Maths 8864 Mark Scheme

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9 (a)

y or x

y or x

y or x

(b) (i)
40 observed heights x cm 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 t weeks after grafting

(ii) r = 0.922 (iii) (a)

To estimate x, use regression line x on t. From GC, x = 6.6751 + 3.4154t (5 sf) When t = 4.5, x = 6.6751 + 3.4154(4.5) = 8.69 (3 sf) The observed height is 8.69 cm.

Since t is controlled, to estimate t, use regression line x on t. x = 6.6751 + 3.4154t When x = 7, 7 = 6.6751 + 3.4154t 13.6751 t = 3.4154 = 4.0040 (5 sf) = 4 (nearest integer) _________________________________________________________________________________
(b)

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x 4940 = = 61.75 n 80 2 1 49402 6575 1 2 ( x) 2 s = x = 311620 80 = 79 = 83.228 (5 sf) n 1 n 79 H 0 : = 60 H1 : > 60

x
=

2 Under H 0 , since n is large, by Central Limit Theorem, X ~ N 60, approximately. 80 Since 2 is unknown, 2 s 2 From GC, p-value = P(Z > 1.7157) = 0.0431
Let w minutes be the time of each delivery in the combined sample. w = x + y = 4940 + 6110 = 11050

w =

w 11050 = = 61.389 (5 sf) 180 n

w
s

= =

x +y
2

= 311620 + 379468 = 691088

2 w) ( 1 2 w n n 1 2 1 11050 691088 = 71.178 (5 sf) 179 180

2 Under H 0 , since n is large, by Central Limit Theorem, W ~ N 60, approximately. 180 Since 2 is unknown, 2 s 2 Level of significance: 5% p-value approach Critical value approach From GC, Let P(Z > c) = 0.05 P ( Z < c ) = 0.95 p-value = P(Z > 2.2088) c = 1.6449 = 0.0136 Critical region: z > 1.6449 w 61.389 60 z= s = = 2.2088 71.178
n
180

Since p-value < 0.05

Since z = 2.2088 > 1.6449

we reject H 0 at 5% significance level

and conclude that there is sufficient evidence indicating that the mean delivery time is more than 60 minutes. _________________________________________________________________________________

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H1 Maths 8864 Mark Scheme

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(i)

The probability that a student selected owns an iPhone remains constant throughout. Whether a student selected owns an iPhone is independent of any other student owning an iPhone.

n n 1 (ii) P(X = 1) = p1( 1 p )n 1 = np (1 p ) 1 (iii) P(X = 1) = 0.2 9 10 p (1 p ) = 0.2

By GC, p = 0.242 or 0.0252 (NA 0.2 < p < 1 ) Window: x from1 to 2 y from 1 to 1 3 E(X) = 4 Var (X) 3np = 4np(1 p) 3 = 4(1 p) (Dividing both sides by np since np 0 ) 3 1p = 4 1 p = (Shown) 4 3 npq = 2 9 npq = 4 9 1 3 n = 4 4 4 n = 12 3 1 = 12 = 3, + = 3 + = 4 1 2 2 4 P ( X + ) = P (3 X 4 1 2) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) or P ( X 4 ) P ( X 2 ) = 0.25810 + 0.19358 or 0.84236 0.39068 = 0.452 _________________________________________________________________________________

(iv)

(v)

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1st shot
2 6

2nd shot
4 6

3rd shot S U
2 6

S
2 6

(i) P(SSS) =
S U S U
1 6

S
1 6 4 6

1 2 4 6 6 6 1 (Shown) = 27

U
4 6 2 6

5 6

1 6

S
4 6

U
5 6

S U

U
5 6

[B1]

[B1]

[B1]

(ii) P(at least 2 shots successful) = P(SSS, SSU, SUS, USS) 1 1 2 2 1 4 2 5 1 2 = + + + 27 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

5 or 0.139 (3 sf) 36

Or: 1 [P(UUU) + P(USU) + P(UUS) + P(SUU) ]

(iii) P(2nd shot is successful | exactly 2 out of 3 shots are successful) P ( 2nd shot successful and exactly 2 shots successful ) = P ( exactly 2 shots successful )

P ( SSU , USS ) P ( SSU , USS ) or 5 1 1 2 2 1 4 2 5 1 2 + + 36 27 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 2 2 5 1 2 7 + 6 6 6 6 6 6 = 108 11 11 108 108 7 or 0.636 (3 sf) 11

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JJC Prelim 2011

H1 Maths 8864 Mark Scheme