DR.

RAM MANOHAR LOHIYA NATIONAL LAW UNIVERSITY

A Project of Political Science ARAB SPRING

SUBMITED TO: Ms. Monika Srivastava Faculty: Political Science SUBMITED BY: Akshayvat Kislay Section-A Roll no. 10
1st Semester

TABLE OF CONTENTS1

1. INTRODUCTION. 2. OIL WEALTH, THE GREAT STABILIZER 3. CAUSES OF THE UPRISING 4. ROLE OF THE WEST 5. TUNISIA 6. EGYPT 7. LIBYA 8. YEMEN 9. SYRIA
10. OTHER COUNTRIES 11. THE BIN LADEN FACTOR 12. CHALLENGES TO INDIA

INTRODUCTION2

A young Internet executive called Wael Ghoneim helped organise a call for a demonstration for 25 January in Cairos Tahrir Square through a Facebook page entitled We Are All Khaled Siad. Fifty thousand people came, not just the dedicated hard core, but fresh faces, old and young. They came back the next day, and the next and the next, swelling to millions, and the rest is history.

Mohamed Bouazizi is not a name that many people will remember today, but the self-immolation of that street vendor in Tunisia on December 17, 2010 has been considered as significant as the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989.Infact, the fall of the Berlin wall marked the culmination of the revolution, but the fire that engulfed Bouazizi ignited a revolution. It spread to virtually every county in the Arab world at outside and brought down governments and fired the imagination of millions of young people. Nearly two years after the advent of the Arab spring there is not only jubilation in some countries but also frustration, anxiety and chaos. Arab autumn and Arab winter seem to loom large in the horizon.

OIL WEALTH, THE GREAT STABALIZER

The west Asian region has been volatile for many years because of the festering Palestine issue and Israels search for its own national security in the face of Arab refusal to recognize the Israeli state. But the region had comparative stability because of its oil wealth, which was protected by mostly authoritarian regimes with the blessing of western countries, which were dependent on the region for its energy needs. After 1973, the rise in oil prices gave many of the countries in the region prosperity and even affluence. The democratic aspirations of the people had remained dormant and consequently, the regimes had considerable longevity. But there was no doubt that the situation would erupt any time, either on account of another Arab-israeli conflict or an outbreak of pent up democratic aspirations.

CAUSES OF THE UPRISING

Absolute monarchies and authoritarian regimes were the main reasons for the Arab uprising of various kinds. In addition, concentration of wealth in a few hands, human rights violations, governments corruption, economic decline and poverty in pockets
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also had an impact on the people. Some positive developments such as rising living standards and literacy rates clashed with lack of reform. This was further fuelled by the influence of the internet, particularly the social media. And when the revolution came, it came, as Shakespeare said, not single spies, but in battalions.

ROLE OF THE WEST

The western powers, particularly the United States, had their favourites like Egypt and Tunisia as well as pet aversions like Libya and Syria among the Arab regimes. The regimes were judged by the degree of their acceptance of Israel. The US had made no secret of its desire for regime change in Libya, Syria and Iran and used the opportunity of the Arab spring to undermine them by intervening in the name of responsibility to protect their citizens. In certain cases, even the UN Security Council authorized intervention. The balance sheet of gains and losses of the US policy is yet to become clear, but the western powers played a crucial role in the revolution.

The Arab spring so far has overthrown the governments in Tunisia (2011), Egypt (2011), Yemen (2012), and Libya (2011), caused a civil war in Syria and started major protests and governmental changes of various kinds in Algeria, Lebanon, Jordan, morocco and Kuwait, and minor protests in Mauritania, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Sudan,
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Iraq and Bahrain. In some countries, timely intervention and repression have averted major changes, but it will be some years before the region regains some semblance of peace and stability.

TUNISIA

The Tunisian revolution was the first and the fastest to bring about changes. High unemployment, inflation, corruption and the absence of political freedom had set the stage for the revolution. Following the immolation of the street vendor, the street demonstrations became violent and many were dead in the clashes between the demonstrators and the law enforcement authorities. President Ben Ali went into exile in January 2011, ending his regime of 23 years. Various dispensations were put in place, but none of them could gain the confidence of the people. In the elections held in October 2011, the leading moderate Islamic party came to power.

EGYPT

The most spectacular change took place in Egypt, where President Mubarak had held sway for years, with the solid support of the United States. Egypt was the key to the evolving Arab attitude to Israel. But his authoritarian attitude and effort to establish a dynasty had angered his countrymen. The entry into politics if former IAEA chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, posed a challenge to Mubarak, but revolution came to Egypt after the Tunisian developments. After the government clamped down on the social media, tens of thousands of protesters came out on the streets. Cairos Tahrir square became the hub of the nationwide protests. The Egyptian army refused to supress the rebellion and Mubarak made changes in the government, hoping to survive as president. But cleaver manipulations by the army resulted in his ouster and imprisonment. After a short period of army rule, the Islamic brotherhood came to power in elections and Muhammad Mursi became the first democratically elected president. The Americans watched helplessly as one of their closest ally went the Islamic way. Israel and the U.S. had no choice, but to welcome the results of the elections.

LIBYA

The ouster of Muammer Gadhafi of Libya was more a result of western intervention than the pressure of the Arab spring. The moderate image that Gadhafi had assumed in recent years have attracted some interest in the west, but the honeymoon had ended. The protests in Libya had took the form of a tribal war and Gadhafi was able to wage a war for his survival for several months. On the strength of an unusual Security Council resolution, a coalition of 27 nations under the leadership of NATO launched an air war, while the rebels fought on the ground for nearly three months. Finally, the 42 years of Gadhafis rule ended when he was brutally murdered. A National Transitional Council came to power, with continuing uncertainty of Libyas future.

YEMEN
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In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh had problems with even his closest advisors since 2009. His opponents seized the opportunity of Arab spring to hold massive demonstrations in January 2010. The demonstrations continued for several months during which the president proposed several measures to the gulf cooperation council to remain in power. An assassination attempt in June drove president Saleh to Saudi Arabia, but he returned to Yemen only to face more demonstrations and pressure from gcc to step down. He finally stepped down in November, paying the way for the presidential election, which resulted in election of president Hadi.

SYRIA

In Syria, the Arab spring has turned into an ugly civil war, with no end in sight. Many thousands have been killed in the fight between the opposition and the forces favourable to the president Assad. The protest began in January 2011 when a police officer assaulted a person in public. By July the Syrian army tanks had to move into certain cities to quell the rebellion. UN peace keeping operation and the special envoy Kofi Annans effort to set up a government of
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national unity were in vain. The UN Security Council was prevented from passing a resolution on Syria on account of veto by china and Russia, which continued to support President Assad. The war continues as president Assad struggles for survival. His days are numbered, but there are no signs yet of a peaceful transition. The Arab spring is yet to play out in Syria. The Arab world itself got divided on the Syria issue and a proxy conflict between the Shias and Sunnis has begun.

OTHER COUNTRIES

In the other countries, where the Arab spring was in evidence demonstrations and violence took place in varying degrees and the authorities were able to resist change through a mix of concessions and repression. But there is no guarantee that the problem will not erupt again. The regimes in these countries must have learnt their lessons to ensure that they move with the times and introduce democratic reforms on the one hand and strengthen welfare measures on the other. The reverberations of the Arab spring reached the non-Arab countries such as Israel, Iran and Turkey.
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Israel watched the situation closely and saw positive and negative signs for itself. Iran strongly sided with the Assad regime, causing a rift at the NAM summit, at which the new Egyptian president took Iran to task over Syria. Turkey hopes to increase its leverage in the Arab world by recommending turkey style democracy in the Arab countries.

The collapse of communism and the end of cold war had a more decisive effect on history than the Arab spring because the former resulted in democratic regimes while the latter led to the creation of diverse forms of governments, most of them Islamic in character. Moreover, the region is still in a state of flux and the fundamental issues relating to the Palestine and Israel have not been tackled. Both the United States and the Israel have been apprehensive of the regime change in Egypt and the continuing civil war in Syria. Iran poses a particular challenge, with the possibility of it acquiring nuclear technology. The constant threat of a looming war adds uncertainty to the situation. But the fundamental challenges brought about by the Arab spring will have a deep impact on the region and rest of the world. The Arab spring is still a work in progress with an uncertain conclusion. Some speak of a second Arab spring after the current phase of cynicism. The world is still watching the scene with extreme caution, if not cynicism.

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THE BIN LADEN FACTOR

In a sense, the Arab spring was a rejection of the methods of people like Osama Bin Laden, who sought revolution by violence and terrorism. The Arab spring leaders recognized the satanic role of the external powers, but sought to change the leaders who embraced authoritarianism and western hegemony rather than go after the blood of Americans. Protest rather than violence and forced change rather than terrorism characterized the changes that swept through much of the Arab world. It must be said to the credit of the western powers that they did not shield their clients in the face of the popular uprising. In Libya and Syria, the western countries actively supported regime change, while in either countries, they were either manipulators or mere spectators.

The darker aspects of the Arab uprising mixing fundamentalism with the new aspiration to freedom became evident when the US ambassador to Libya and three others were killed in September 2012, alleging in protests against an unflattering film on the Prophet. The fact that the ambassador was helpful to the opposition forces to overthrow Mummer Gadhafi and had won respect and confidence of several leaders of the new government did not deter the attackers.

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The killing was obviously premeditated and perpetrated by terrorists in the guise of a popular protest.

The unfolding political evolution in many Arab countries is dictated by people to do not share the liberal values that the Arab spring brought forth. The chances of the sectarian forces dominating the Arab world are real and they may turn the Arab spring into a hot summer.

CHALLENGES TO INDIA

The Arab spring presented special challenges to India. India has been close to most of the regimes in the Arab world, regardless of the monarchies and their authoritarianism. As the source of fossil fuels and the destination of temporary migrants, India has a major stake in the stability and welfare of Arab countries. Indias traditional support to Palestine and insistence that Israel should withdraw to the 1967 border are appreciated in the region. At the same time, India could not be seen to be on the wrong side of history by opposing the democratic movements. We went generally by the Arab consensus, wherever it existed. India supported use of force in Libya and voted for change in Syria, but remained neutral in other countries, leaving it to the regimes concerned to deal with the issues. India may share the concern that the new regimes are Islamic and not secular, but
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religion has not stood in the way of Indias good relation with other countries. The Arab spring did not fundamentally alter Indias views of the Arab world and the new governments have generally been friendly and cooperative with India.

Bibliography
Abbassi, Jawed, CEO Arab Advisors Group. An Overview of the Arab Telecom and Broadband Markets and Broadcast Media Industry. Georgetown University For Contemporary Arab Studies Symposium. Information Evolution in the Arab World. 22 March, 2010. Accessed 10 November, 2011. Al-Jazeera Egypt: Relive the Revolution. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/03/201 1368587809435 .html. Accessed 16 December, 2011. Al-Jazeera. Timeline: Egypts Revolution. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/01/201 112515334871490.html. Accessed 15 December, 2011. Allagui, Ilhem. Multiple Mirrors of the Arab Digital Gap. Global Media Journal 14: (2009). Allagui, Ilhem and Johanne Kuebler. The Arab Spring and the Role of ICTs. International Journal of Communication 5 (2011): 14351442.
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Alexa. Top Sites. http://www.alexa.com/topsites. Accessed 10 November, 2011. Anderson, Kurt. The Protester. Time 14 December, 2011. Accessed 15 December, 2011. http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2101745_ 2102132_ 2102373, 00.html #ixzz1gbVoLcHw.

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