INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. 29: 605617 (2009) Published online 9 July 2008 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.

com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.1727

Analysis of a 27-year rainfall data (19772003) in the Sultanate of Oman

Andy Y. Kwarteng,a * Atsu S. Dorvlob and Ganiga T. Vijaya Kumara
b a Remote Sensing and GIS Center, Sultan Qaboos University, Al-Khod PC 123, Oman Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Sultan Qaboos University, Al-Khod PC 123, Oman

ABSTRACT: Analysis of variation of rainfall in space, time and amounts, and its attendant effect on the ecosystem is vital in arid and semi-arid environments where the resource is scare, highly variable and unpredictable. In this study, we analyse the characteristics of rainfall in the Sultanate of Oman using data recorded between 1977 and 2003. The data is divided into six geomorphic compartments to represent the various topographic regions in Oman. The average yearly rainfall varies from a low of 76.9 mm in the interior region to a high of 181.9 mm in the Dhofar Mountains, with an average of 117.4 mm for the whole country. MannKendall statistics show a negative but insignicant rainfall trends for the datasets. In northern Oman, the main rainfall season occurs between December and April and that accounts for 57.882.9% of the annual rainfall. February and March record the highest rainfall accounting for 35.3 to 42% of the yearly rainfall. The Dhofar Mountains and surrounding areas in southern Oman are dominated by the khareef season in JulyAugust, which produces 44.3 to 67.5% of the rainfall in that area. The number of days of light rainfall (<10 mm per day) is the most dominant and accounts for 6695% of the rain. Rain in excess of 50 mm per day is rare in Oman (0.4 and 2.9%), but when it does occur can result in serious consequences such as ash ooding, human catastrophes and land degradation. Rainfall records indicate that Muscat and surrounding areas are susceptible to tropical cyclones and catastrophic rainfall (>100 mm rainfall per day) approximately every 50 years. Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS

arid environment; rainfall data; trend analysis; rainfall intensity; Oman

Received 8 April 2007; Revised 14 January 2008; Accepted 6 May 2008

1.

Introduction

Rainfall is a scarce and an important hydrological variable in dry land areas. The need for water in these areas increases daily due to population growth, economic developments, urbanization, and consequently, water management using all the available resources is becoming increasing crucial. In order to develop an effective management strategy, it is paramount to understand and assess the impact of this resource on the ecosystem. The study and understanding of climate, variation of rainfall in space, time and amounts, and their attendant effects on the ecosystem is vital. Plant productivity in these regions is primarily limited by the availability of adequate water. Arid and semi-arid zones are characterized by rainfall which is highly variable in space, time, quantity and duration (Noy-Meir, 1973). The Sultanate of Oman is characterized by hyper-arid (<100 mm rainfall), through the arid (100250 mm rainfall) and semi-arid (250500 mm rainfall) environments that are experienced in different parts of the country. Scarce and erratic rainfall
* Correspondence to: Andy Y. Kwarteng, Remote Sensing and GIS Center, Sultan Qaboos University, P.O. Box 33, Al-Khod PC 123, Oman. E-mail: kwarteng@squ.edu.om Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

and varying temperatures have combined to shape the distribution and abundance of vegetation (Fisher and Membery, 1998). Long-term rainfall data and their analysis are limited in Oman and most of the Arabian Peninsula. This may partly be due to (1) large inaccessible and uninhabitable areas, (2) lack of adequate network of monitoring stations (rain gauges), (3) non-suitability of large areas for agriculture, (4) poor data quality and (5) lack of the personnel for effective database management and analysis. Water resources in the Sultanate of Oman are scarce. In the event of heavy rains, surface runoff in the wadis last for a few hours to a few days due to the high evaporation rate. Several major recharge dams have been constructed in order to retain some of the water during storms for effective recharging of the groundwater (Ministry of Water Resources, 1998). Approximately 94% of water is used for agricultural purposes, 4.5% for domestic and 1.5% for industrial purposes (Ministry of Water Resources, 1995). Agriculture relies primarily on irrigation as rain-fed agriculture is not feasible due to the scanty and unpredictable rain. The main source of domestic water is from desalination. In the Al Jabal Al Akhdar mountain region, rainfall replenishes the falaj system, the traditional method of supplying water for irrigation and domestic purpose, which has been in existence in

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Oman for several centuries. Water management in Oman is vital for the continuous recharge of groundwater and the maintenance of the natural ecosystem. Rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula occurs primarily as a result of four main meteorological conditions originating from the Mediterranean, central Asia, the tropical maritime regime of the Indian Ocean and tropical Africa. During different times of the year, these atmospheric inuences bring varying rainfall to different parts of the peninsula. In general, the Arabian Peninsula is dominated by two air masses, namely, the Polar Continental that occurs from December to February and the Tropical Continental that occurs in summer from June to September. Both systems are affected by minor incursions of Polar Maritime and Tropical Maritime (Fisher and Membery, 1998). Rainfall patterns in Oman depend on these and other meteorological conditions and their interaction with the local topography. In this study, we analyse the characteristics of rainfall in the Sultanate of Oman using data recorded between 1977 and 2003. The questions addressed are as follows: (1) Are there any trends in the daily, monthly and yearly rainfall for different parts of Oman? (2) Is there any obvious cyclicity in the rainfall for the different parts? (3) Are the rainfall patterns stable or variable? The ability to shed light on these questions is essential in the long-term economic and environmental planning for the Sultanate. MannKendall tests are used to examine trends in the rainfall data. The Sultanate of Oman is quite diversied in terms of its northeastsouthwest extent, geomorphology and climatic conditions. The corollary is that rainfall spans from arid through semi-arid to hyperarid conditions. The approach used for the rainfall data analysis was to divide the dataset into six regions that are representative of the different geomorphic compartments. The average data for the different regions is considered the most representative for Oman. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the rst to use such an approach in Oman.

Figure 1. Landsat TM bands 7, 4 and 2 colour composite mosaicked image of the Sultanate of Oman. This gure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

2. 2.1.

Materials and methods Study area

Oman is located in the southeastern part of the Arabian Peninsula in both arid and semi-arid environments. With an area of approximately 312 500 km2 , Oman is bordered in the northwest and west by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, respectively, and in the southwest by Yemen (Figure 1). Oman has a coastline of 1700 km stretching from the Strait of Hormuz in the north to the borders of Yemen in the southwest and overlooks the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The land area is much diversied and can be divided into three principal physiographic regions or geomorphic compartments: Mountain ranges, comprising the northern Oman or Al Hajar Mountains and the Dhofar or Qara Mountains,
Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

occupy 15% of the country. The northern Oman mountains extend in an arc form for 700 km from Musandam in the north and curve eastward towards the coast to Ras Al Hadd, the easternmost part of Oman. Jabal Shams with the highest peak of 3075 m above mean sea level, is part of Al Jabal Al Akhdar that forms the central part of the northern Oman mountains. The Dhofar Mountains, located in southwestern Oman, have peaks from 1000 to 2000 m above mean sea level. Coastal plains comprise Batinah in the north and Salalah Plain in the south, and account for 3% of the land mass (Figure 1). These plains, which serve as main agricultural areas, have elevations ranging from 0 to 500 m. The interior region occupies the area between the mountain ranges in the north and south, respectively, and consists of sandy wasteland desert. The area has elevations not exceeding 500 m and accounts for 82% of the country. The diverse topographic regions in Oman result in a wide range of climatic conditions. The average temperature in northern Oman from May to September is between 32 and 48 C, and 26 and 36 C from October to April. Coastal regions are hot and humid in summer with high temperatures of 46 C and more than 90% humidity. In the interior plain, high temperatures in summer can exceed 50 C. In winter temperatures are quite mild
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between 15 and 23 C. The temperatures in the highlands and southern Dhofar regions are moderate throughout the year. The Dhofar region has a fairly steady year-round temperature of 3035 C. The rainfall data used in this study have been divided into six groups to represent the different physiographic regions as described in the next section. Rainfall in Oman is caused by four principal mechanisms (Roberts and Wright, 1993; Ministry of Water Resources, 1995). Convective rainstorms that are associated with localized cells of strong convection can develop any time of the year, but mostly during summer. Cold frontal troughs that are most common from November to April originate from North Atlantic or the Mediterranean Sea and may bring seif rain to the northern parts of Oman, and possibly to central and southern Oman. Rainfalls in these areas vary depending upon the physiographic location. For example, the average rainfall in Muscat, situated on the coast, is 75 mm whereas the average rainfall in the Al Jabal Al Akhdar, with elevations between 400 and 3000 m above mean sea level is between 250 and 400 mm. Tropical cyclones originate from the Arabian Sea and tend to be distributed equally between two main cyclone seasons, May to June and October to November. However, cyclones occasionally occur outside the two periods. In general, the Arabian Coast of Oman is affected by a frequency of one cyclone in every 3 years. These cyclones give rise to intense storms and occur once in every 5 years in Dhofar Governorate and once in 10 years in Muscat. Even though these storms are uncommon, when they occur, they can bring heavy rain to the Arabian Coast of Oman. One of such storms crossed Masirah Island in 1977 when 430.6 mm of rain was recorded in 24 h (Watts, 1978). Note that the average annual rainfall for Masirah Island is only 70 mm. On-shore southwesterly monsoon currents occur from June to September and bring humid conditions to much of Oman accompanied by frequent drizzle, fog, mist and rain (khareef ) in Dhofar coast and bordering mountain areas. Occasionally, the monsoon currents penetrate further inland to produce convective storms. During the khareef season, parts of Dhofar region are transformed into lush landscapes of green eld and verdant vegetation. The monsoon season in Dhofar region brings 100400 mm of rainfall. Even though rainfall in Oman, just like most arid regions, is sparse and irregular, it is able to support the plant ecosystem. However, the spectrum of plant life and seasonality of owering are more inuenced by the amount and distribution of rainfall than variations in temperature (Ghazanfar, 1997). 2.2. Data description The rst rain gauge monitoring station in Oman was established in Muscat in 1884, followed by Salalah
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airport and Masirah Island in 1942 and 1943, respectively. Systematic rainfall monitoring stations in the whole country started after 1970 (Ministry of Water Resources, 1999). The data used in this study were obtained from the Ministry of Regional Municipalities, Environment, and Water Resources (MRMEWR). In 2002, there were more than 3000 systematic network for measuring parameters such as climate, rainfall, groundwater levels and groundwater quality throughout the country (Al Khabouri and Al Aata, 2002). Water monitoring stations are designed according to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards for an arid region to acquire basic water resources data which could be used to study, analyse and advice on the optimum uses of water resources in the Sultanate. The rainfall gauges automatically record rain on an hourly and daily basis. In the majority of the coastal plains in Oman, rain gauges are positioned at distances of less than 200 km2 . In the mountainous ranges, there is one gauge positioned per 400 km2 . The network of rain gauges in the desert areas with less rainfall is much fewer. In this study, 31 monitoring stations, with more than 27 years of continuous rainfall data coverage from 1977 to 2003, were used (Table I). Owing to Omans location in both arid and semi-arid regions as well as the different geomorphological compartments and climatic conditions, rainfall data for a particular location may not be representative of other parts of the country. The stations have been divided into six groups to represent the different geomorphic compartments. The categories are based on the different geomorphologies including elevation, different rainfall types and seasonal rainfall (see Section 2.1). They consist of (1) the northern Oman Mountains (15 stations), (2) Batinah coastal plain (2 stations), (3) northeast coast (5 stations), (4) interior region (7 stations), (5) Salalah coastal plain (one station) and (5) Dhofar Mountains (one station) (Table I and Figure 2). The elevations are: northern Oman mountains, 4201950 m above mean sea level; Batinah Plain, 1070 m; northeast coast, 5175 m; interior region, 19320 m; Dhofar Mountains, 858 m; and Salalah Plain, 20 m. Table I shows the characteristics of the stations including Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates, elevation and average yearly rainfall. 2.3. Data analyses Average monthly and yearly rainfall values were calculated for all the stations. The following parameters were analysed for the stations: (1) total rainfall, (2) number of rainy days, (3) maximum daily rainfall, (4) extreme rainfall events and (5) rainfall intensities. The following rainfall (R ) intervals were used: light rainfall, R < 10 mm; moderate rainfall, 10 R < 25 mm; heavy rainfall, 25 R < 50 mm; and extreme rainfall, R > 50 mm. Similar approaches have been used in the analyses of rainfall data in arid regions (Lazaro et al., 2001; Gong et al., 2004). The MannKendall test was used to detect trends in the time series data for the six geographic regions. Suppose (x1 , x2 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., xn ) is a time series data. The
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Table I. Description of the 31 rain gauge stations used in this study. Station no. Station ID Station name Geographical location UTM/ UTM/ Elevation Average Eastings Northerns (m) yearly rainfall (mm) 189 500 196 900 376 800 445 600 448 200 424 900 420 500 424 300 434 600 432 300 449 200 450 200 455 000 495 500 429 700 446 100 514 300 528 100 566 300 698 200 686 900 602 100 625 600 645 600 656 300 655 200 690 200 630 900 655 000 728 400 754 600 1 885 600 1 911 800 2 683 200 2 559 100 2 568 500 2 606 400 2 669 800 2 664 600 2 675 900 2 687 700 2 652 500 2 620 500 2 645 600 2 612 800 2 751 600 2 736 700 2 542 900 2 556 800 2 551 100 2 286 400 2 483 400 2 577 800 2 545 400 2 559 900 2 514 500 2 586 700 2 554 900 2 608 700 2 613 900 2 456 200 2 494 600 20 858 300 300 330 320 650 840 620 430 520 650 540 475 70 10 560 700 1950 19 280 420 720 595 425 160 150 15 5 175 14 112.00 184.58 65.15 70.83 90.36 75.81 109.67 175.43 113.77 103.29 106.96 151.85 110.38 98.37 132.67 118.13 132.12 167.52 330.15 70.81 92.85 84.88 150.57 181.92 122.12 73.60 110.08 80.44 87.38 69.92 79.37

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

AD889556AF AE916185AF CM786116AF DL455961BF DL468825AF DM204694AF DM260958BF DM264436BF DM374569AF DM382737BF DM459225AF DM520025AF DM545506AF DM915258AF DN259176AF DN436617AF EL144239BF EL258618BF EL655171AF FH988624AF FK886394AF FL072718AF FL245564BF FL455969AF FL516435CF FL585627AF FL950429CF FM300897AF FM515309AF GK258642BF GK594466AF

Salalah Airport Zayk 1 Al Buraymi 1 Tanam Ibri Dank Kitnah 2 Daqeeq 2 Al Far Far Hayl Al Adhah 2 Al Ghuzayfah near Al Khabat Falaj As Sudayriyin Haybi Majzi in Wadi Al Hawasinah Aswad Shinas Al Ghafat Al Hamra Sayq Masirah Al Ghabi Samail Al Muqayhfah Al Bdayah Ibra Al Hajir Mazara Seeb Airport Mina Al Fahal Al Wa Sur

Salalah coastal plain Dhofar Mountains Interior region Interior region Interior region Interior region Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Batinah coastal plain Batinah coastal plain Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Interior region Interior region Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northern Oman mountains Northeast coast Northeast coast Northeast coast Northeast coast Interior region Northeast coast

MannKendall (MK) test statistic is dened as T =

i<j

sgn(xj xj ), where sgn(x) =

1 if x > 0 0 if x = 0 1 if x < 0

Under the null hypothesis that there is no trend, T is distributed as a Normal random variable with mean zero and variance assuming no ties between (x1 , x2 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., xn ) (Hirsch et al., 1982). The alternative used is no trend. All tests were at = 0.05 level.

3. 3.1.

Results Yearly and monthly average rainfall

Yearly rainfall over Oman is quite variable and irregular, and depends on the geographical location as depicted in Figure 3. The average yearly rainfall recorded for all the 31 stations between 1977 and 2003 is 117.0 mm. The highest average of 338 mm was recorded in 1997. The years 1982, 1983 and 1995 to 1998 recorded
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high averages. Subsequently, the averages dropped off considerably. The lowest average of only 28.6 mm was recorded in 1984. Other low yearly rainfall averages of 37.2, 50.9 and 52.9 mm were recorded in 2001, 1986 and 1991, respectively. Overall, there is no signicant trend in the rainfall pattern over the years. The MannKendall statistic shows a negative trend (T = 0.31); however, the trend is not signicant (p -value = 0.75). Of the six regions, the Dhofar Mountains have the highest yearly average of 184.6 mm. The area measured the highest 1year average of 595.0 mm in 1985. The yearly averages for the other region are the northern Oman Mountains, 141.4 mm; Batinah Plain, 100.8 mm; northeast coast, 89.8 mm; interior region, 76.6 mm; and Salalah Plain, 112 mm. For all the regions, there is a lot of variation in the yearly averages as indicated by the coefcient of variation which is over 50% for most of the years. The lowest yearly average is recorded in the interior of Oman, and it is not unexpected as this region is mainly dry sandy desert. The data show that in the years that the rainfall is high, this applied to all regions. Conversely, low average rainfall years are common to all the regions. In general,
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Figure 2. Geographical distribution of the 31 rain gauge stations used in this study.

yearly rainfall patterns appear similar, with the exception of the Dhofar Mountains, suggesting potential similarities in the mechanisms of rainfall. The average monthly rainfall distribution shows high variability for the geographic locations (Figure 4). The monthly average data for all the stations indicate that the highest rainfall is recorded in February and March and accounts for 35.9% of the yearly rainfall. The lowest monthly rainfall occurs in November, October, June and May, and these months collectively account for only 18.2% of the yearly rainfall. The potential sources and mechanisms for rainfall in the different months are described in Section 2.1. Northern Oman Mountains experience an average monthly rainfall of 11.8 mm,
Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

with each month exceeding 3.8 mm. Approximately 53.9% of the rainfall occurs in the period from January to April (seif rain), and summer rain (JulyAugust) accounts for 23.3% of the rainfall. Rainfall patterns in the Batinah Plain and the northeast coast are quite similar. In both locations, the majority of rainfall (90.3% in Batinah Plain and 81.2% in the northeast coast) occurs between November and April (seif rain). Summer rainfall (MaySeptember) is quite low and accounts for 6.8 and 15.1% of the rainfall in the Batinah and northeast coast, respectively. For the interior stations, the highest average monthly rainfalls are recorded between January and April and that account for 64.5% of rainfall. The rest of the months have relatively low average monthly
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Figure 3. Average annual rainfall in Oman. This gure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

rainfall. In the Salalah Plain, 78.4% of the rainfall is recorded between April and August. Rainfall in the months of NovemberMarch is relatively low (13.9%). The majority of rainfall over the Dhofar Mountain ranges (67.4%) occurs only in July and August (khareef rain). Rainfall occurring in NovemberMarch is relatively low (7%). Even though the Dhofar Mountains and Salalah Plain are adjacent to one another, the amount and distribution of rainfall vary. Average annual rainfall shows a positive relationship with topography as depicted in Figure 5. In general, the higher the elevation, the greater the average rainfall. The correlation coefcient between elevation and rainfall was 0.86 with data of the highest peak (1950 m above sea level) and 0.69 without data of the highest peak. The highest rainfall, 330 mm, was recorded at Saiq with an elevation of 1950 m above mean sea level. The Dhofar Mountains average 185 mm of rain annually. The lowest rainfall, 76 mm, occurs in the interior region with elevations ranging from 300 to 320 m. These stations are located in dry desert conditions. For stations situated less than 100 m above mean sea level, the average yearly rain ranged between 71 and 133 mm only. This difference in the yearly average rainfall may be attributed to the different rainfall mechanisms. 3.2. Rainy days

mountain ranges, 46.0 days (Table II). The highest number of rainy days of 71, 70 and 68 days was recorded in the Dhofar Mountains in 1986, 1985 and 1996, respectively. On the contrary, some stations in the Batinah Plain, the interior region and the northern Oman Mountains did not record a single day of rain in 1985. On the average, rain falls between 2 and 13% of the days in a year. All the regions show a declining trend in the number of rainy days except Batinah coastal region and the northern Oman Mountains. These trends are however not signicant. The minimum observed p -value is 0.06. There is a high correlation between the annual rainfall and the annual rainy days as depicted in Figure 7. The patterns are quite similar and indicate that a high number of rainy days usually result in a high annual rainfall. For example, the highest number of rainy days of 19821983 and 1997 correspond to the high rainfall years for all the stations. The rainfall and rainy days in Salalah Plain and Dhofar Mountains are different from the rest of the country, suggesting a different mechanism of rainfall. 3.3. Maximum daily rainfall Maximum daily rainfall is an important indicator of ash ood hazards. Oman is characterized by highly diverse low and extreme heavy rainfall as shown in Figure 8. The highest daily maximum rainfall of 431 mm was recorded in Masirah Island in the interior region in 1977. The next three highest daily values of 184, 162 and 133 mm occurred in 1983, 1982, 1995 and 1997. There is no pattern to the maximum rainfall over the years. Fourteen maximum daily rainfalls of greater than 100 mm were recorded in all the stations. Of these, ve occurred in the northern Oman Mountains, three each in the northeast coast and interior regions, and one each in the Batinah Plain, Salalah Plain and Dhofar Mountains. Such high recordings of greater than 100 mm of daily rainfall are
Int. J. Climatol. 29: 605617 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/joc

A day is considered rainy when rainfall is greater than 1 mm. The annual average rainy days for the geographical locations and Oman are presented in Figure 6. The average number of rainy days per year for Oman is 12.4. For the geographic locations the averages are: northern Oman mountains, 13.0 days; Batinah coastal plain, 9.1 days; northeast coast 8.0 days; interior region, 8.2 days; Salalah coastal plain, 33.9 days; and Dhofar
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Figure 4. Monthly rainfall distribution in Oman.

Table II. Yearly average number of rainy days and no-rain days in Oman. Interior region Batinah coastal plains 355.9 6.6 9.1 6.6 6.1 4.7 2.0 2.0 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.6 Northern Oman Mountains 352.0 9.4 13.0 9.4 8.6 6.9 3.0 2.6 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.7 Salalah coastal plains 331.1 7.6 33.9 7.6 32.4 6.3 0.9 1.5 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 Dhofar Mountains Northeast coast Total

No-rain days Rainy days Days with rain <10 mm Days with rain 1025 mm Days with rain 2550 mm Days with rain >50 mm

Mean Std. Mean Std. Mean Std. Mean Std. Mean Std. Mean Std.

356.8 5.2 8.2 5.2 6.2 3.9 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.4

319.1 17.9 45.9 17.9 42.7 16.1 2.7 5.4 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.5

357.0 6.5 8.0 6.5 5.6 4.9 1.5 1.5 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.5

352.6 10.9 12.4 10.9 9.1 9.5 2.3 2.4 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.6

Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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Figure 5. Relations between average yearly rainfall and elevations.

Figure 6. Average yearly rainy days in Oman. This gure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

observed only once in all the stations for the year in which they occur. The exceptions are 1983, which recorded three (northeast coast, interior, and Salalah Plain) and 1982, which recorded two (northern Oman Mountains and Batinah Plain). In the northern Oman Mountains, the maximum daily rainfall ranged from a high of 162 mm in 1982 and 1995 to a low of 36 mm in 1980 and 1984, respectively. These represent 55% of the average yearly rainfall in 1982, 56% in 1995, 43.3% in 1980 and 96.4% in 1984,
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respectively. In the Batinah Plain, the daily maximum of 100 mm was recorded in 1982, and the lowest of 12 mm in 1984. These represent 50.4 and 9% of the average yearly rainfall. The next maximum rainfall in the interior region, after the 1997, was 184 mm in Masirah Island in 1983. This event represents 65.7% of the yearly rainfall. The lowest maximum rainfall of 7 mm in the interior region was recorded in 1984. In Salalah Plain, the highest daily extreme rainfall of 127 mm was recorded in 1983 and it account for 35.8% of the yearly rainfall. In the
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Figure 7. Relations between annual rainfall and rainy days in Oman. This gure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

Figure 8. Maximum daily rainfall in Oman. This gure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

Dhofar Mountains, the highest rainfall of 120 and 90 mm was measured in 2002 and 1983, and it represents 36.6 and 21.8% of the respective yearly rainfall. 3.4. Rainfall intensity Rainfall intensity is investigated in two ways. First, the total yearly rainfall is divided by the number of rainy days for the stations, and secondly, rainfall is analysed
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in four groups, consisting of light rainfall (R < 10 mm); moderate (10 R < 25 mm, heavy (25 R < 50 mm), and extreme (R > 50 mm). From Figure 9, northern Oman Mountains, Batinah Plain and northeast coast show high intensity rainfall between 1981 and 1983. Rainfall intensity in northern Oman Mountains and Batinah Plain appears uniform with the exception of 19801983 and 19951997 with above mean values. The northeast coast
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Figure 9. Rainfall intensity in Oman. This gure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ijoc

shows higher than the average rainfall intensities for most of the years, perhaps indicating different mechanism or source for the rain. Dhofar Mountains and Salalah Plain indicate low rainfall intensities than the rest of the country. Rainfall in the two locations consists of drizzle, mist and light rain. No signicant trends are shown in any of the intensities over the years. Figure 10 shows the average number of days for the four intensity groups. Table II and Figure 10 indicate that 6695% of the rainy days in Oman has only light rainfall. In Salalah Plain and Dhofar Mountains, light rainfall accounts for 95.4 and 92.9%, respectively, of the rainy days. The next common occurrence in Oman is moderate rainfall representing 323% of the rainy days. Moderate rainfall is quite substantial in northern Oman accounting for 1723% of the days on which there is rain. Heavy rainfall, mainly in northern Oman, occurs only 5.7 to 8.8% of the rainy days. Extreme rainfall events are relatively rare and occur only 0.4 to 2.9% of the days on which there is rain. 4. Discussion

The average yearly rainfall distribution indicates that Oman experiences hyper-arid, arid and semi-arid conditions. The rainfall patterns appear stable and predictable over the years. No major periods of drought are observed and rain falls throughout the year in different parts of the country. Rainfall in the northern and central parts of Oman is dominated by the seif from November/December to April. This accounts for 61% of the average rainfall for the country and 5883% of the rainfall in northern and central Oman. During this period, cold frontal troughs originating from the North Atlantic or the Mediterranean pass over and bring rain to the north and central parts of Oman. Rainfall over central
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Oman is due to the inuence of the Oman convergence zone (Pedgley, 1970; Fisher and Membery, 1998). The interior region shows high variability from year to year. Some stations recorded zero rainfall over certain years. The paucity of rain in parts of central and northern Oman in JulySeptember is attributed to the restricted source of low-level moisture and the shallowness of the monsoon (Pedgley, 1970). Rainfall in southern Oman and, to some extent, parts of the interior region is dominated by the southwest summer (JuneAugust) monsoon that causes frequent drizzle, fog and light rain in the Dhofar Coast and the adjacent mountains. Yearly rainfalls at Salalah and Masirah Island are affected by storms which are associated with the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (Pedgley, 1970). The ability to observe trends in rainfall records is quite important as the mechanism might be helpful in predicting potential periods of drought or intense rainfall. The number of years of rainfall record that is necessary to detect any signicant trends in rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions is quite debatable. In general, areas that show greater interannual variability may require longer term records. This implies that due to the irregular and unpredictability of rain, arid and semi-arid environments may require long period data for any trends to be observable. From the rainfall records between 1997 and 2003 no signicant, positive or negative, trends are observed in the Sultanate of Oman. Is it possible that such trends could only be seen in datasets for several more years? Or it is possible that such trends are not readily predictable and that they are being obliterated/changed over time by the ever changing local, regional and global climatic conditions? Fisher (1994) observed that data records of 10 years or more were sufcient to estimate mean total rainfall and other parameters. In a study on the cyclicity of rainfall in Oman and the United Arab
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Figure 10. Distribution of rainfall (R ) intensity for light rainfall (R < 10 mm); moderate (10 R < 25 mm); heavy rainfall (25 R < 50 mm) and extreme rainfall (R > 50 mm) in Oman.

Emirates, Brook and Sheen (2000) observed apparent 5year cycles for the rainfall in Muscat and Masirah Island accounting for 15.6 to 22% of the data variance. The study utilized rainfall records ranging between 50 and 101 years. Such predictive potential, if reliable, could have signicant impact on the management of crops, livestock and people in Oman. From a 30-year rainfall record analysis of the semi-arid southeast Spain, Lazaro et al. (2001) observed neither trends nor abrupt changes. However, they observed summer drought that indicated strong annual cycles. Trends and changes in rainfall intensities in arid and semi-arid environments are not easy
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to estimate and the same has been reported by several researchers (Hulme, 1996; Gong et al., 2004). Rainfall intensity measurements are valuable for the prediction of catastrophic events. Rainfall exceeding 50 mm per day are uncommon in Oman; however, in the event of their occurrence, they can cause serious consequences such as ash ooding, human catastrophes and land degradation. Such events represent only 0.4 and 2.9% of the rainy days of the year and appear to be random. They can occur in any part of the country, but are most likely to occur in the northern Oman Mountains and to some extent in the Batinah Plain. Nevertheless,
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they could still occur in the interior region (Masirah Island), Salalah Plain and Dhofar Mountains, albeit at a lower frequency. The highest average number of days of extreme rainfall of 1.5 and 1.4% were recorded in 1982 and 1997, respectively, in the northern Oman Mountains. Intense rainfall can account for a signicant percentage of the annual rainfall. For example, the 431 mm of rainfall on Masirah Island in 1977 represents 3 years of the regional average yearly rainfall. The locations of high rainfall events are essential to the recharging of the water table. Several dams have been built in Oman to help store water and recharge the water tables in case of such episodic events. Any observable trends in such events could help in the establishment of maintenance programs for the dams. Tropical cyclones and catastrophic rainfall events are rare, but some have been recorded in Oman over several years. A tropical cyclone that passed over the Batinah Coast on 4th June 1890, dumped 300 mm of rainfall in Muscat. The accompanying destruction caused the death of 700 people and a massive loss of property. Northern Oman and the United Arab Emirates experienced an unusually heavy rainfall in 1995 surpassing the previous years. For most of the locations, 1995 is the wettest year on record and December 1995 is the wettest month. The rainfall caused a lot of havoc including ooding, washing away of roads as well as deaths (Membery, 1997). The December rainfall for Muscat exceeded 100 mm. A similar high rainfall occurred in December 1956 when 171 mm of rain was recorded in Muscat. The three events in 1890, 1956 and 1995 suggest that Muscat should expect such unusual high rainfall between 39 and 59 years, with an average of about 52 years. The 1956 and 1995 events occurred in December, whereas the 1890 cyclone was in June. Noy-Meir (1973) reported that the number of rainy days in arid regions is between 10 and 50 days. Even though the average rainy days of 12.4 for Oman (Table II) satisfy that criteria, three other regions (Batinah Plain, northeast coast and interior region) have average rainy days between 8.0 and 9.1, which are slightly below average. The high rainy days values of 45.9 and 33.9 in the Dhofar Mountains and Salalah Plain are responsible for the high national average value. Figures 3 and 6 and the detailed datasets indicate positive relations between the rainy days and monthly or yearly rainfall volumes. However, such relations are completely altered/changed with the occurrence of extreme rainfall (Section 3.3). The average number of rainy days for the interior region is higher than the northeast coast, but the reverse is true for the average annual rainfall. With the exception of the northern Oman Mountains and the Batinah Plain, the other regions show declining trends in rainy days. However, such trends are not signicant. 5. Conclusions

climatic conditions. The approach used in the analysis of rainfall data from 1997 to 2003 for 31 stations was to divide the dataset into six regions that are representative of the different geomorphic compartments. Rainfall in the Sultanate of Oman is highly variable, irregular and diversied. The yearly average rainfall of 117.4 mm varies from a low of 76.6 mm in the hot, dry desert (interior region) to a high of 184.6 mm in the Dhofar Mountains. In general, the monthly and yearly patterns are stable and no signicant trends were observed over the study period. The majority of rainfall in northern Oman occurs in the winter seif season from November/December to April and accounts for 5883% of the average annual rainfall. These are caused by midlatitude westerly depression by polar front jet stream. Rainfalls in Dhofar Mountains and Salalah Plain are dominated by the khareef in July and August and account for 73 and 55%, respectively, of the yearly rainfall. During this period, southwest monsoon causes frequent drizzle, fog and light rain and transforms the area into lush landscapes of green eld and blossoming vegetation. February and March are the most prolic rainfall months in northern and central Oman and account of 35.3 to 45.5% of the annual rainfall. The annual average number of rainy days varies from 8 in the northeast coast to 46 in Dhofar Mountains with an average of 12.4 for the whole country. With the exception of the Batinah Plain and northern Oman Mountains, all the regions show declining but no signicant trends in the number of rainy days. Rainfall in Oman is dominated by light rain (<10 mm per day) which accounts for 6695% of the day when there is rain. In Dhofar Mountains and Salalah Plain, light rain represents 92.9 and 95.4%, respectively, of the average yearly rainy days. Extreme rainfall (R > 50 mm rainfall per day) represents only 0.4 and 2.9% of rainfall. However, such a rare event can occur in any part of the country and can be catastrophic leading to loss of life, ash ooding and land degradation. The records indicate that 1983 recorded the highest rainfall in all the geographic locations. The highest rainfall years of 1982 and 1983 were followed by the lowest rainfall in 1984. Similarly, high rainfall years of 19951998, which were far above the yearly average, were followed by 4 consecutive years with rainfall of 20% or more below the averages. Acknowledgements The data used in this study were obtained from the Water Resources Division, Ministry of Regional Municipalities, Environment and Water Resources, Oman. References
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The Sultanate of Oman is quite diversied in terms of its northeastsouthwest extent, geomorphology and
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RAINFALL DATA ANALYSIS IN OMAN Brook GA, Sheen S. 2000. Rainfall in Oman and the United Arab Emirates: cyclicity, inuence of the Southern Oscillation, and what the future may hold. Arab World Geographer 3: 7897. Fisher M. 1994. Another look at the variability of desert climates, using examples from Oman. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters 4: 7987. Fisher M, Membery DA. 1998. Climate. In Vegetation of the Arabian Peninsula, Ghazanfar SA, Fisher M (eds). Kluwer Academic Press: Netherlands; 538. Ghazanfar SA. 1997. The phenology of desert plants: a 3-year study in a gravel desert wadi in northern Oman. Journal of Arid Environments 35: 407417. Gong D, Shi P, Wang J. 2004. Daily precipitation changes in the semiarid region over northern China. Journal of Arid Environments 59: 771784. Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA. 1982. Techniques of trend analysis of monthly water quality data. Water Resources 18(1): 107121. Hulme M. 1996. Recent climatic change in the worlds drylands. Geophysical Research Letters 23: 6164. Lazaro R, Rodrigo FS, Guti errez L, Domingo F. 2001. Analysis of a 30-year rainfall record (19671997) in semi-arid SE Spain for implications on vegetation. Journal of Arid Environments 48: 373395.

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Int. J. Climatol. 29: 605617 (2009) DOI: 10.1002/joc