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Journal of Vocational Behavior 72 (2008) 415428 www.elsevier.com/locate/jvb

Unemployed people in search of a job: Reconsidering the role of search behavior q

verko a,*, Zvonimir Galic a, Darja Maslic Sers a, Mirta Gales b ic ic Branimir S
a

ic a 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia Department of Psychology, University of Zagreb, Ivana Luc b Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany Received 18 July 2007 Available online 3 December 2007

Abstract A three-wave longitudinal study of unemployed persons in Croatia was used to examine the antecedents of job-seeking behavior and reemployment. A series of demographic, motivational and job-constraint variables were posited to inuence job-seeking behavior, which, in turn, was hypothesized to aect (re)employment. The participants were surveyed in 2003 (N = 1138), and their employment status was checked in 2004 (N = 601) and 2005 (N = 452). Regression analyzes supported only one slice of the modelthe antecedent-job-search relations. All motivational variables, in particular employment commitment and perceived nancial strain, proved to be relatively strong predictors of job-search intensity. However, they appeared to be only weakly related to the (re)employment outcome. Demographic variablesin particular education, age, and employment durationappeared to be the main determinants of (re)employment, operating presumably through their inuence on employers hiring decisions. It was suggested that existing theory and heuristic frameworks overstate the importance of job-seeking activity. Further research is suggested to examine why purposeful and proactive job searching does not pay more. 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Job search; Job-search antecedents; Employment; Unemployment; Multi-wave survey; Croatia

1. Introduction Research into job-search behavior and factors that contribute to successful employment has received increased attention in the past two decades. The results of early studies published in the 1980s (Kanfer & Hulin, 1985; Schwab, Rynes, & Aldag, 1987), laid the ground for the development of heuristic models of job seeking and reemployment. Based on this, Wanberg, Watt, and Rumsey (1996) proposed a model comprising six variables that function as predictors or antecedents of job-seeking behavior and reemployment. Three were classied as person variables (job-seeking self-ecacy, employment commitment, and conscientiousq *

This paper is part of the research supported by the Croatian Ministry of Science and Technology Grant No. 130-0000000-1020. Corresponding author. Fax: +385 1 6120037. verko). E-mail address: branimir.sverko@zg.hr (B. S

0001-8791/$ - see front matter 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jvb.2007.11.006

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ness) and three as situational variables (social support, economic hardship, and unemployment negativity). Subsequently, Wanberg, Kanfer, and Rotundo (1999) regrouped the predictor variables in three categories that comprised: motives to search for a job (employment commitment and nancial hardship); job-search competencies (job-search self-ecacy, emotion control, and motivation control); and job-search constrains (e.g., ill-health, family responsibilities). Then, for the purpose of their meta-analytic review, Kanfer, Wanberg, and Kantrowitz (2001) reconstructed the model to include six categories of antecedents (personality traits, generalized expectancies, self-evaluations, motives, social-context variables, and biographical variables). Finally, Wanberg, Hough, and Song (2002) proposed a comprehensive multidisciplinary framework of reemployment antecedents grouped in seven categories, and hypothesized a web of their direct, mediated, and moderated relationships with reemployment. Although the conceptualization evolved from a simple job-seeking model to an elaborate portrayal of factors and processes related to reemployment, the basic tenet remained the same: most of the predictor variables were posited to inuence job-seeking behavior, which, in turn, is expected to inuence reemployment. As a matter of fact, Wanberg and her colleagues put forward the mediation hypothesis stating that job-seeking behavior (partially) mediates the relationship between antecedent variables and reemployment. However, the longitudinal studies conducted by Wanberg and her colleagues did not strongly support the model. In their rst study (Wanberg et al., 1996), conducted on laid-o workers from a large manufacturing facility in Kansas, among six predictors only one related to both job-seeking behavior and reemployment. Jobseeking frequency barely correlated with reemployment and did not contribute to the regression equation above and beyond the control and predictor variables. In the second analysis (Wanberg et al., 1999), conducted on unemployed participants from two Work Force Centers in Minnesota, four predictor variables signicantly related to job-search intensity, but none of them with the reemployment success. The authors stated that a possible mediation of predictors included in this study through job-search intensity for the outcome of reemployment was not supported (p. 905). In a similar vein, the extensive analysis of a large set of economic, sociological, and psychological predictors (Wanberg et al., 2002) failed to support most of the hypothesized relationships. The meta-analytic review of 73 empirical studies (Kanfer et al., 2001), however, revealed more armative ndings. It has shown that isolated slices of the heuristic model (e.g., antecedent-job search relations, antecedent-outcome relations, job search-outcome relations) have all received modest support. These ndings encourage further exploration of antecedents and evaluation of the integral model. Apart from the US, the studies of job-seeking antecedents and consequences have been conducted in Australia (Lynd-Stevenson, 1999), Belgium (Vansteenkiste, Lens, De Witte, & Feather, 2005), Canada (Saks, 2006; Saks & Ashfort, 2000), Finland (Vesalainen & Vuori, 1999), and the Netherlands (Shaufeli & Vanyperen, 1993; Van Hooft, Born, Taris, Van der Flier, & Blonk, 2004), with essentially similar ndings. However, given that all these countries are highly developed western societies with sound economies, relatively low or moderate unemployment rates, and with predominantly individualistic cultures, the cross-cultural relevance of the ndings is an open question. In a recent study of unemployed job-seekers in China, Song, Wanberg, Niu, and Yizhong (2006) found a negative relationship between job-search intensity and reemployment speed, which is counterintuitive and inconsistent in direction with past research (p. 501). In discussing the nding, the authors mention the possibility that government programs for disadvantaged job-seekers inuenced the results, but also the possibility that self-initiated job search does not pay o in the (Chinese) labor market (Song et al., 2006). Germane to this is Vinokur and Schuls (2002) observation that employment is a behavioral outcome in a free-market society, where the individuals are responsible for becoming employed and are free to choose their employment (p. 72). This observation and the nding in China call for more research in dierent socio-economic contexts. The present study explored job-search antecedents and consequences in Croatia, an East European country that in the 1990s underwent a transition from a state-regulated to a market-oriented society. One concomitant of this transformation was a dramatic rise of unemployment. As a result, millions of laid-o individuals have become anxious job seekers coping with prolonged uncertainty. In Croatia, in 2003, the year when our study was planned, the registered unemployment rate was 18%. After losing their job, job seekers needed, on average, more than a year to nd new employment. People were generally unprepared for the situation. Raised in a

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state-regulated economy, virtually without unemployment, they had to learn that the state was no longer responsible for their jobs and that having a job depended on their own, self-initiated job search. But, how much does job-seeking matter in a situation of extremely high unemployment? This study tested the validity of the longitudinal model of job seeking and reemployment in the Croatian context and explored some of the reemployment antecedents that were neglected in previous studies. The study was planned as a longitudinal three-wave undertaking, comprising a basic investigation and two follow-ups over more that 2 years. 1.1. The heuristic model and the hypotheses Drawing on the work of Wanberg and her colleagues (Kanfer et al., 2001; Wanberg et al., 1999, 2002), we adopted a heuristic model, which is depicted in Fig. 1. It includes three classes of variables, comprising 13 predictors, theoretically or empirically related to job-seeking behavior and employment success. Some of the chosen variables had already been amply explored in previous studies (e.g., employment commitment, nancial hardship), while the others have been less well researched (e.g., health variables), or unrecognized as predictors of job-seeking success (e.g., engagement in the hidden-economy). The remaining part of this section explains the variables and the hypotheses. 1.1.1. Biographic variables Biographic characteristics, such as gender, age, or education level, may be related to job-seeking behavior because they may reect the inuence of proximal determinants of job-seeking behavior, such as motivation, skills and nancial resources needed for ecient job seeking. For example, males may be more persistent jobseekers, following their traditional role of breadwinners. Older peoples declining health and obsolete skills may hinder their job-seeking eort, and those who had been unemployed for longer time may be demoralized and less motivated in their search. Better educated people may be more condent in their competences and prospects for a successful job search, which may enhance and intensify intensity of their search. Kanfer et al. (2001) meta-analytic review revealed that demographic variables were signicantly, albeit weakly related to search behavior (p. 844). In line with the previous research ndings we hypothesized that men, younger, better educated, and those with a shorter unemployment history exhibit higher levels of job search. 1.1.2. Motivational factors This category of antecedents assembles variables that impel individuals to engage and keep engaged in jobseeking activities. Here, motivational factors are broadly conceived to include both the inner disposition (e.g., employment commitment) and extrinsic pressures (e.g., nancial hardship) or encouragement (e.g., social support) to seek a job.

Biographic variables Gender, Age, Education, Unemployment duration Motivational factors Employment commitment Willingness to accept job Self-esteem Financial hardship Social support Job-search constraints Family responsibilities Hidden economy working Psychological health Physical health

Job-search behavior

Employment success

Fig. 1. A heuristic framework with hypothesized antecedents of job-search behavior and employment success.

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Employment commitment refers to the importance of work in the life of an individual. It is an attitudinal verko & Vizek-Vidovic , 1995). construct similar to the constructs of work involvement or work salience (S According to expectancy-valence analysis of job-seeking (e.g., Feather, 1992; Feather & OBrien, 1987) and its more recent conceptualizations as purposive self-regulatory process (e.g., Kanfer et al., 2001), the employment commitment is an important job-search antecedent. In their meta-analysis, Kanfer et al. (2001) found a number of studies which show that employment commitment, on average, correlates with job-search behavior. Mean corrected sample-weighted correlation was rc = .25, calculated on k = 15 correlations. Hence, we expected that, in the Croatian context too, employment commitment relates positively to job-seeking intensity. The willingness to accept a job is the degree to which a job seeker is eager to accept a job oer in spite of some unfavorable elements, such as unfavorable job content, pay, or work conditions. While partly related to employment commitment, the willingness to accept a job reects a general need for employment that stems from a persons whole life situation. As such it relates positively to job-seeking intensity. Self-esteem, or the feeling of self-worth, includes an individuals subjective appraisal of himself or herself as being valuable and capable. As part of a persons core evaluations it makes the person more condent in the pursuit of arduous objectives. Kanfer et al. (2001) meta-analytic review shows that self-esteem correlates positively with job-search behavior (rc = .25; k = 22). Hence, we expected that self-esteem relates positively to jobseeking intensity. Financial hardship refers to the extent of diculties one is experiencing as consequence of inadequate nancial resources. According to economic utility theory, nancial hardship is one of the main motivators for searching for a job. In support of this view, the results of a meta-analysis by Kanfer et al. (2001) showed a positive relationship between nancial hardship and job-seeking behavior (rc = .21; k = 19). Accordingly, we expected that higher levels of perceived nancial need associate with more intensive job-seeking intensity. Social support refers to perceived assistance, both instrumental (resources and constructive advice) and emotional (empathy, caring, trust), provided by others in coping with stressful events. It is a valuable help that can encourage a job-less person and strengthen her or his motivation to persist in searching for a job. We expected to conrm the ndings of previous studies (Kanfer et al., 2001) showing that higher levels of perceived social support associate positively with job-seeking behavior (rc = .24; k = 15). Thus, we expected to nd that perceived social support relates positively to job-search intensity. 1.1.3. Job-search constraints This category of antecedents refers to situational factors that can potentially limit job-seeking eorts, and hence lessen the likelihood to become employed. Wanberg et al. (1999) considered a number of such factors (poor health; family responsibility; civic, school, religious, and other responsibility; family conicts; not having money for job-search expenses; and not having adequate transportation) and asked respondents to assess to which extent these factors had interfered with their job seeking. Summed the responses across the factors, however, failed to correlate with the employment outcomes. We decided to focus on a few constrains and measure the degree of their presence (e.g., assess the degree of respondents health, not their opinion whether illhealth had aected their job search). Based on preliminary interviews, we opted for the constraints described below. Family responsibilities refers to the degree of family obligations (e.g., child care and household activities) assumed by an individual. Since such activities may be time consuming, we predicted that family responsibilities relate negatively to job-search intensity. Hidden-economy working refers to concealed economic activities, which are not reported to the government nor covered by ocial GDP statistics. Such activities, known also as shadow or black economy work, are found in all countries (e.g., Schneider & Enste, 2000). Many unemployed persons engage in hidden working verko, Galic, Maslic Sers ic, & Gales ic, 2008), considering this as a provisional solution until they nd a reg(S ular job within legal employment. However, their job-seeking eorts are probably restricted by their hiddenjob activities. We hypothesized that the extent of hidden working relates negatively to job-search intensity. Health it is to be expected that ill-health, both psychological and physical, constrains job-search activities, and thus reduces chances for reemployment. This possibility has often been put forth in the debate concerning the causal explanation of the association between unemployment and health (e.g., Mastekaasa, 1996; Taris, 2002). However, as meta-analytic reviews show (McKee-Ryan, Song, Wanberg, & Kinicki, 2005; Paul,

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2005), there are few empirical studies exploring the relation of health to job-seeking and reemployment, and they have produced mixed results. Besides, the studies mainly focus on various constructs of psychological or mental health, while the inuence of physical health has been under-researched. We hypothesized that both psychological and physical health relate positively to job-search intensity. 1.1.4. Job-search intensity Job search, a purposeful activity comprising exertion directed towards nding a new job (Schwab et al., 1987), has typically been seen essential for reemployment. A meta-analysis of the existing studies conrmed that job-search intensity predicts reemployment, although the eect sizes are small (Kanfer et al., 2001). We hypothesized that job-search intensity relates positively to employment success. 1.1.5. The employment success In a country with very high unemployment, the most important goal for most unemployed people is to get a job. Therefore, our research focused on employment status, a dichotomous variable revealing whether or not a job seeker has obtained employment. However, since employment quality also matters (e.g., Brasher & Chen, 1999), we supplemented the outcome information with assessment of job satisfaction in the obtained jobs. 1.1.6. The paths of inuence According to the model, the three groups of antecedent variables inuence the job-seeking intensity, which, in turn, aects reemployment outcomes. This main path of inuence is indicated in the diagram (Fig. 1) by the thick arrows. However, as Vinokur, Schul, Vuori, and Price (2000) stressed, reemployment is a joint outcome of the job seekers search activity and employers hiring decision. Therefore, some of the job-seeking antecedents may also directly inuence the employers hiring decisions. In their attempts to maximize prots, employers presumably try to hire applicants whom they expect to be productive. When valid measures of job competencies are not available, employers may rely on observable signals and indices (Spence, 1973) of applicants productive capacity, in particular education, job experience, and age (Behrenz, 2001). Other job applicants characteristics, which may be discerned from their vitae or the interview, may also aect the employers decisions. The thin curved arrow in Fig. 1 represents this second possible path through which antecedent variables potentially aect employment outcomes. 2. Method 2.1. Participants and procedure The basic, rst-wave survey (T1) was conducted in the summer of 2003, in 25 branch oces of the Croatian Employment Oce in all Croatian counties. In each oce, the trained pollsters randomly approached unemployed persons who came for regular monthly reporting and asked them to participate in the survey. The number of approached persons was proportional to the real share of the unemployed in the respective county. Out of a total of 1882 contacted persons 1138 (60.5%) agreed to participate. Geographical and gender structure (58% female) of the sample corresponded to that of all registered unemployed persons in Croatia. However, since older or less educated persons more often refused to participate, the sample was biased towards younger and better educated persons. While 45% of all unemployed are younger than 35 years of age, 60% of our sample was of that age. Similarly, while there are 36% of low educated people in the total population of unemployed, our sample included only 15% of such persons. At T1, 35% of the participants were unemployed for less than 6 months, 32% from 7 months to 3 years, and 33% for more than 3 years. These proportions corresponded to the structure of the unemployed population in Croatia, characterized by a high share of long-term unemployment. Participants lled out the questionnaire in a separate room, in smaller groups, mostly on their own, based on the instructions received from the pollsters. The pollsters emphasized that the study was anonymous, undertaken by an independent research institution, for scientic purposes, and potentially useful for social policy. All pollsters wore badges denoting their aliation to the university. For some respondents who had

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problems with reading or writing, the pollsters read the questions and recorded their answers. The survey took up to 30 min. In the end, the respondents were asked for permission to be contacted and surveyed again a year later. Out of 1138 participants, 805 (71%) consented and provided their contact data. The follow-up surveys ensued at the end the years 2004 (T2) and 2005 (T3), approximately 15 and 27 months after the basic survey. Such unusually large intervals of time between the waves were chosen because of the labor market characteristics in Croatia. More than half of the unemployed in Croatia look for a job for , 2006). Follow-ups closer more than 1 year, and as many as 40% are unemployed for more than 2 years (Katic to T1 would decrease the variability of the employment status variable. The two follow-ups were designed as mail surveys. The mailed questionnaire repeated some of the items and scales from the basic questionnaire (e.g., about subjective health), which were not intended for the present study analysis, and included additional questions concerning their current employment status. The participants were rst contacted by telephone: they were reminded of their consent, informed that they would soon receive the questionnaire by mail, and asked for cooperation. In 2004 (T2), completed questionnaires were received from 601 participants, which is 53% of those who participated in T1, and 75% of those who consented to participate in the follow-up. In 2005 (T3), the number of participants who returned the questionnaire dropped to 452, which is 40% of those who participated in T1, and 56% of those who consented to participate in the follow-up. 2.2. Measures The basic questionnaire included a series of Likert-type scales, adapted from other sources or constructed for this study. Most of the scales were relatively short because preliminary interviews with unemployed individuals and employment ocers indicated that questioning had to be limited to about 30 min. Demographic variables were assessed by direct questions. Gender was coded as 1 for male, and as 2 for female. Education was coded in nine categories, starting from no school (category 1) to postgraduate study (category 9). Age was expressed in years, and unemployment duration in months. Employment commitment was measured by six-item work commitment scale adapted from Warr, Cook, and Wall (1979). The items (such as Having a job is very important for me and Even if I won a great deal of money in the lottery, I would accept a job) were rated on 4-point response continuum ranging from not at all to fully agree. The alpha coecient for the composite was .75. Willingness to accept a job was assessed by a measure constructed for this study. It listed unfavorable job aspects. The question Would you accept a job that. . ., was followed by 10 yesno items such as . . .does not seem interesting, . . .requires lower education than yours, . . .requires two hours commuting in one direction, . . .is less well paid than you expected. The alpha coecient for the composite variable formed by counting the number of yes answers was .71. Self-esteem was assessed by a three-item scale constructed for this study. The questions were as follows: Do you personally think that you are a valuable member of society?; How do other people see you do they appreciate you and are you important to them?; Do the current circumstances aect your selfesteem and sense of worth? The answers, given on a 4-point scale, yielded a composite score with an alpha coecient of .71. Financial hardship was measured by nine items adapted from Warr and Jackson (1984). One item tapped general experienced nancial strain: Looking over the past month, how often have you had serious nancial worries?. The remaining items asked whether the participants had enough money for adequate food, regular household expenses, medical care, clothes, furniture and appliances, car, and decent apartment or house. All items were answered on a 4-point scale. Factor analysis showed that all items loaded highly on one factor, so we averaged the items in one composite variable. The alpha coecient for this scale was .91. Social support was measured by a scale adapted from Abbey, Abramis, and Caplan (1985). Eight items asked about the degree to which respondents signicant others provided them with encouragement, useful information, direct help, i.e., things that you need, etc. The response scale ranged from 1 (indicating minimum support) to 4 (indicating maximum support). The alpha coecient for this scale was .90. Family responsibilities were operationalized as a dichotomous variable, coded as follows: 0 = without children, 1 = with children; where children were dened as dependents younger than 16 years of age.

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Hidden-economy working was examined within a series of questions about typical everyday activities. Along with other activities (e.g., doing household work, participating in some form of education, and volunteering), the participants were asked to indicate how often they did (1) occasional small repair jobs for money, (2) more permanent, unregistered job (on the black), and (3) occasional jobs for a honorarium. The response scale had four anchor points (never, several times a month, several times a week, and every day), coded in the analyses from 1 to 4. Psychological and physical health was assessed with the SF-36 Health Survey (Ware & Sherbourne, 1992), a psychometrically sound instrument for self-assessment of subjective health. It contains 36 items pertaining to limitations in performing important life roles due to physical health and emotional problems, bodily pain, general health and vitality, social functioning, and mental problems. It can be scored to provide separate measures of psychological and physical health. The alpha coecients for these two measures of health were .86 and .82, respectively. Job-search intensity was assessed with seven items culled from literature (e.g., Schwab et al., 1987; Wanberg et al., 1999) and our own interviews with a small sample of job seekers. The rst item comprised a general question How often do you actively look for a job? The following items comprised a series of specic activities, preceded by the question During the past month, how often did you engage in. . . The activities included: reading and searching through paper advertisements, checking job oers of the Employment Bureau, searching through advertisements over the Internet, asking friends and acquaintances if theyve heard for some job, personally calling or visiting various employers, looking for inuential people and informal connections. All seven items were accompanied with a 4-point response scale ranging from not at all to every day. The combined scale had alpha coecient of .82. Employment success. Our basic measure of job-seeking success, employment status at T2 and T3, was assessed by asking participants whether they were currently unemployed (coded 0) or got a job (coded as 1). However, a supplementary measure of employment quality was also collected for participants who got a job. They were asked to assess their satisfaction with the new job on a 5-point scale ranging from very unsatised (1) to very satised (5) (See Table 1). 2.3. Assessment of nonrespondent dierences The T2 respondents (N = 601) were compared on the study variables assessed at T1 with the individuals who did not respond at T2 (N = 537) either because they did not consent to participate in the follow-up survey or because they did not mail back the questionnaire. We found that nonrespondents compared to respondents were more likely to be male (47.8% vs. 37.8%; p < 01) and less educated (M = 4.8 vs. 5.0; p < .05). Nonrespondents showed lower employment commitment (M = 19.4 vs. 20.0; p < .01), and more engagement in the hidden-economy working (M = 4.1 vs. 3.9; p < .05). The comparison between T3 respondents (N = 452) and nonrespondents (N = 686), revealed only two signicant dierences: nonrespondents showed lower employment commitment (M = 19.5 vs. 20.1; p < .01) and lower job-search intensity (M = 15.2 vs. 15.8; p < .01). Though statistically signicant, the dierences were relatively small in size and, we believe, unlikely to introduce systematic bias to the ndings. 3. Results Table 2 presents the means, standard deviations, score ranges, and correlations of the study variables. Though generally small in size, most of the correlations were statistically signicant and their algebraic signs mostly in accordance with the hypotheses. Of the demographic variables, age and employment duration were negatively, and education positively related to the job-search intensity (weakly) and with the employment status (moderately). All of the motivational factors, as expected, related positively to job-search intensity, with correlation coecients ranging from .08 (p < .05, for self-esteem) to .37 (p < .01, for employment commitment). However, the correlations of motivational variables with the employment status were smaller, and for the most part statistically insignicant. It is interesting to note that nancial hardship correlated positively with job-search intensity but negatively with employment status. This implies the dual role of nancial hardship, which on the one hand motivated for a more intensive job search, but on the other hand hindered

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Table 1 Descriptive statistics and intercorrelations of variables Variable Gendera Age Educationb Unemployment duration (months) 5. Employment commitment 6. Willingness to accept job 7. Self-esteem 8. Financial hardship 9. Social support 10. Family obligationsc 11. Hidden-economy working 12. Physical health 13. Psychological health 14. Job-search intensity 15. T2 Employment statusd 16. T3 Employment statusd 1. 2. 3. 4. M 1.6 33.1 4.9 36.4 19.7 5.6 8.9 24.7 23.2 0.26 4.0 77.5 67.8 15.5 0.35 0.42 SD 0.49 11.63 1.51 47.66 3.49 2.40 1.90 6.37 5.47 0.44 1.60 21.55 23.15 4.89 0.48 0.49 Min. 1 17 1 0 6 0 3 9 8 0 3 0 0 7 0 0 Max. 2 62 9 277 24 10 12 39 32 1 12 96.7 100 29 1 1 1 .01 .10** .01 .09** .02 .01 .09** .14** .17** .18** .01 .06 .01 .01 .01 2 .09** .43** .06 .07* .22** .34** .14** .14** .06 .39** .25** .14** .22** .26** 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 verko et al. / Journal of Vocational Behavior 72 (2008) 415428 B. S

.12** .00 .03 .02 .25** .10** .10** .10** .23** .14** .07* .28** .25**

.04 .08** .13** .22** .09** .11** .02 .20** .17** .11** .27** .22** .24** .02 .11** .15** .02 .05 .09** .04 .37** .10* .04 .08* .06* .03 .05 .09** .15** .02 .24** .06 .07 .31** .37** .04 .08** .25** .46** .08* .05 .03

.26** .21** .08** .33** .41** .13** .12** .17**

.07* .01 .21** .31** .13** .14** .09

.02 .08** .13** .05 .01 .01

.12** .07* .06 .04 .17** .60** .18** .21** .18**

.06 .15** .14**

.17** .15**

.61**

Note. Sample sizes: variables 114: N = 1138; variable 15: N = 601; variable 16: N = 452. a 1, male; 2, female. b From 1 (without school) to 9 (Ph.D.). c 0, no children under 16; 1, with children under 16. d 0, unemployed; 1, employed. * p < .05. ** p < .01.

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Table 2 Predictors of job-seeking intensity in the rst wave of data collecting (T1): summary of the hierarchical regression results (N = 1138) Blocks and variables 1. Biographic variables Gender (male = 1, female = 2) Age Education Unemployment duration 2. Motivational factors Employment commitment Willingness to accept a job Self-esteem Financial hardship Social support 3. Job-search constraints Family obligationsa Hidden-economy working Psychological health Physical health
a * **

Last-step b .09** .09** .08** .08** .28** .14** .08* .22** .10** .06* .00 .06 .14**

Adjusted R2 (R2 change)

.02** (.02**)

21** (.19**)

22** (.01**)

0, without children under 16; 1, with children under 16. p < .05. p < .01.

employment, probably through its relation to other contraindications for employment. Among the job-search constraints, only physical health related signicantly to both job-search intensity and the employment status, while psychological health related to the employment status. Finally, job-search intensity related positively, albeit weakly, to employment status at T2 (r = .17; p < .01) and T3 (r = .15; p < .01). Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was used to assess the combined usefulness of the three groups of antecedents as predictors of job-seeking intensity at T1 (N = 1138). Table 2 presents the standardized regression coecients (b) obtained in the last step, when all variables were included in the equation, as well as the adjusted R2 and R2 change for the blocks of variables. All b-coecients for demographic variables were signicant, and their algebraic signs in accordance with the hypotheses: female, older, less educated and longterm unemployed tended to search for the job less intensively. However, the coecient of determination was low: taken all together, the biographical variables explained only 2% of the job-seeking variance. The inclusion of the motivational block substantially raised this gure to 21% of the explained variance. All b-coefcients for motivational variables were signicant, and their algebraic signs in accordance with our hypotheses: higher levels of employment commitment, self-esteem, nancial strain, and social support were associated with higher levels of job-seeking intensity. In the third block, consisting of job-search constrains, two variables had signicant b-coecients. As expected, physical health showed a positive relationship to job-search intensity. However, contrary to our hypothesis, b-coecient for family responsibilities was also positive, indicating that having dependents may be more a motivational factor than a job-search constraint. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis was used to assess the contributions of the antecedent variables collected in T1 to predicting the employment status in T2 (N = 601) and T3 (N = 452). Table 3 shows the resultsstandardized logistic regression coecients and the Nagelkerke R2 for the blocks. Demographic variables, in particular education, appeared to be relatively strong predictors of employment status both at T2 and T3. Motivational variables added little over and above the demographic variables. Only social support appeared to be a signicant predictor at T2, probably disclosing the importance of instrumental component in perceived social support. Job-constraint variables also added little to the explained variance. Family responsibilities correlated positively with the employment status at T2, and T3. This is contrary to the initial hypothesis, but in line with the above mentioned unexpected nding that family responsibility correlates positively with the intensity of job search. Hidden-economy working was a signicant predictor of employment at T3, also in the direction that was hypothesized. Undeclared working, although unrelated to job-search intensity in T1 (Table 2), related positively to reemployment in T3 (Table 3). It may be that working

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Table 3 T1 Predictors of employment status in T2 and T3: summary of the logistic regression results Blocks and variables T2 employment status (N = 601) Last-step b 1. Biographic variables Gender (male = 1, female = 2) Age Education Unemployment duration 2. Motivational factors Employment commitment Willingness to accept a job Self-esteem Financial hardship Social support 3. Job-search constraints Family obligationsa Hidden-economy working Psychological health Physical health 4. Job-seeking intensity Job-seeking intensity
a *

T3 employment status (N = 452) Last-step b .03 .04** .27** .01* .01 .07 .09 .04 .02 .54** .22** .01 .00 .07** Nagelkerke R2 (R2 change)

Nagelkerke R2 (R2 change)

.32 .02 .38** .02** .03 .04 .08 .01 .05* .59* .02 .00 .01 .04

.21** (.21**)

.17** (.17**)

.23** (.02*)

.18** (.01)

.26 (.03*)

**

.22** (.04**)

.26 (.00)

.24** (.02**)

0, without children under 16; 1, with children under 16. p < .05. ** p < .01.

in the hidden-economy, through helping people to practice work skills, maintain self-respect, and form relationships outside of the family (Sixsmith, 1999), facilitates employment later in time. It is also possible that some employers in Croatia rst hire people on the black and then, after some time, legalize their status. In the fourth step of the logistic analyses we introduced job-seeking intensity as the predictor variable, to check the basic proposition of the heuristic model that more intensive job search is the major antecedent of employment outcome. However, as seen from the last row in Table 3, the contribution of job-seeking intensity was insignicant at T2, and of small size at T3. 3.1. Supplementary analysis Our research focused on employment status, which is the basic employment outcome. However, since employment quality may also be important, we supplemented our analysis with assessment of job satisfaction in the obtained jobs. As already mentioned, the participants who got a job were asked how satised they were with the new job on a 5-point scale ranging from very unsatised (1) to very satised (5). To assess the contributions of the antecedent variables collected in T1 in predicting employment satisfaction at T2 and T3, we again used hierarchical multiple regression analysis. This supplementary analysis comprised only the participants who were employed at T2 and T3 (Ns 207 and 188, respectively). The obtained results showed that the three blocks of antecedents accounted only for a trivial amount of employment satisfaction. The job-seeking intensity was not related to employment satisfaction. 4. Discussion The basic tenet of the heuristic model that the antecedent variables primarily inuence job-seeking behavior, which, in turn, aects employment outcomes, has been only partly supported. Our data clearly supported only one slice of the modelthe antecedent-job search relations: all motivational variables, and in particular employment commitment and perceived nancial strain, proved to be relatively strong predictors of job-search

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intensity. However, they appear to be only weakly related to the (re)employment success. Directly or indirectly (through job-search intensity) they contribute little to the employment variance over and beyond the demographic variables. Thus demographic variablesin particular education, age, and employment duration appear to be main determinants of the successful (re)employment. Presumably they operate as signals and indices (Spence, 1973) of the job seekers competencies that aect employers hiring decisions. Although we anticipated this possibility (as the thin curved arrow in Fig. 1 shows), the magnitude of their inuence status was a surprise. While Kanfer et al. (2001) meta-analytic review revealed that demographic variables showed an overall pattern of zero-to-small relations with employment outcomes (p. 845), our ndings indicate much stronger inuence: zero-order correlations for age, education, and unemployment duration were all in the range between .22 and .28, and in the logistic regression analysis the block of demographic variables accounted for the major part of explained variance. It is possible that in prescreening their job applicants Croatian employers more rely on demographic characteristics. Although the Labor Law has adequate regulations concerning fair employment practices, its enforcement in practice is weak. Whatever the interpretation, it is a disappointing nding that these immutably xed demographic features of individuals exerted relatively higher inuence on employment outcome than their motivational resources operating through active job-seeking eorts. 4.1. Implications Most theoretical frameworks and research approaches to exploring factors that underlie successful employment, including the heuristic framework that we adopted in the present study, consider job seeking as a crucial activity. But this also applies to more general theories of human behavior, which have been used to explain job-search behavior. Regardless of whether job search has been approached from an expectancy-value framework (e.g., Feather, 1992; Feather & OBrien, 1987), based on Ajzens theory of planned behavior (e.g., Van Hooft et al., 2004; Van Ryn & Vinokur, 1992), or has been conceptualized as a goal-directed, self-regulated process (Kanfer et al., 2001)all of these approaches conceive job search as the major pathway leading to obtaining a job. Our ndings, however, cast doubt upon the soundness of this assumption. As presented above, individual dierences in job-seeking intensity accounted a for negligible variance of the employment status. Given Vinokur and Schul (2002) notion that employment is a behavioral outcome in a free-market society, one can wonder whether our ndings are specic for a country in transition, which only recently abandoned state controlled economy. We do not favor such an interpretation, because careful reassessment of the studies from other countries, (including the U.S., which is generally believed to be a prototype of a free-market society), shows similar ndings. As Kanfer et al. (2001) meta-analysis showed, the association between jobsearch behavior and employment success was signicant albeit weak. The average correlation, which is corrected for measurement artifacts and sampling errors, was only rc = .21 (p < .05; k = 21), for the employment status. Studies that followed (Vinokur & Schul, 2002; Wanberg, Glomb, Song, & Sorenson, 2005; Wanberg et al., 2002), all of them conducted in the U.S., reiterated the nding that job-search accounts only for a very small percentage of variance of reemployment. They also found that job search does not foster quality of the employment. In Canada, Saks (2006) failed to nd that active job-search intensity and job-search eort are related to employment outcomes. In the Netherlands, too, Taris (2002) found that neither the job-searching behaviors nor the intention to look for a job were related to chances of nding employment (p. 53). However, when considering the above ndings, one should be aware of the possibility that some methodological circumstances attenuated the relationship between job-searching behavior and reemployment success. First, it is possible that available measures of job-searching behavior do not capture all relevant aspects of an ecient job searching. In addition, the main criterion measurethe employment statusis typically a dichotomous and often skewed variable. Given the dynamic nature of job search, its assessment at only a single point in time, long before the occurrence of outcome is also problematic. The reduced validity of many self-assessed variables may also aect the outcome. Nevertheless, the ndings presented above can be hardly seen as supportive of the view that job seeking is a crucial factor whose importance for reemployment cannot be overemphasized (Vesalainen & Vuori, 1999, p. 393). This is not to say that job seeking is not important at all. After all, one who does not seek employment

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will not nd one. But for millions of job seekers who are actively looking for a job, the intensity of their seeking is only partly responsible for the outcome. Our theoretical models and heuristic frameworks should acknowledge this. On the practical side, our nding, that demographic characteristics of the job seekers exerted a relatively higher inuence on the employment outcome than their job-seeking intensity, has two implications. First, it raises the question of the limits of usefulness of various counseling programs aiming at improving job-seekers search eorts. Second, it stresses the responsibility of the policy makers for advancing the solutions that will more eectively promote the employment of the groups that are disadvantaged in the hiring process. 4.2. Study limitations and suggestions for future research Apart from the general methodological limitation that we already mentioned above, several additional caveats specic to our study should be mentioned. First, as in most studies, we measured the reemployment predictors at the rst wave (T1). However, the employment outcomes were assessed much later: more than a year (T2) or two (T3) after the assessment of job-seeking intensity. Since job search is a dynamic process that changes over time (e.g., Barber, Daly, Giannantonio, & Phillis, 1994; Saks & Ashfort, 2000), such a wide gap between the measurements is not conducive for nding a sizable correlation. Wanberg et al. (2005) showed in their 10-wave study that correlations among job-search intensity taken at successive waves decreased with longer spans of time. Yet we believe that the eect was not detrimental for our study, because the correlations of job-search intensity with reemployment status at T2 and T3 did not change signicantly (.17 and .15, respectively). Second, although the sample was biased towards younger and better educated persons, it was still fairly representative of the population of Croatian unemployed people registered with the Croatian Employment Bureau, in particular in respect to gender and length of unemployment. While this is a strong point of our study, it is also a limitation, because the sample included participants with diering unemployment duration. Given that job search is a dynamic process that changes over time, it would be ideal if we had the possibility to track all participants from the very beginning of their unemployment. Instead, at T1, we had participants who had been unemployed from 0 to 277 months. This enabled us to study how unemployment duration relates to job-search intensity and employment outcomes, but it also might have obscured the interrelations of other antecedents with job search and reemployment. Finally, one limitation to this study is that some of the variables were quite crudely measured. Because of a lack of adapted instruments, and a need to limit the duration of questioning, we developed some ad hoc measures with a limited number of items. Yet their internal reliability coecients were within an acceptable range, and the correlations with other constructs were both logical and comparable to data from the literature. Research of job-search behavior and its consequences has certainly made progress during the last two decades, both conceptually and methodologically. In study after study, improved conceptualizations of the constructs involved have been proposed, the number of relevant predictors has increased, multiple measures of both job-search activity and employment outcomes have been tried, and sophisticated longitudinal designs have expanded to include more and more waves. Yet the results stubbornly keep showing that job-search accounts for only a small percentage of variance of employment outcomes. We believe that it would be benecial for future theory and heuristic frameworks to further develop the predictor space of reemployment success and avoid overemphasizing the importance of job-seeking activity. Perhaps it is time to focus on the question why purposeful and proactive job searching does not pay more. Certainly, it is important to consider more thoroughly the methodological reasons for not nding a more substantive correlation. But beyond that, we need to examine individual characteristics and social circumstances that possibly hamper the eectiveness of job-seekers eorts. On the job seekers side, a lack of relevant skills and abilities may prevent persons from nding employment no matter how hard they tried. There have been crude attempts to tap this aspect of human capital (e.g., self-report assessment of skill and qualications; Wanberg et al., 2002), but we need more valid, objective methods. On the other hand, we need to explore the employers role. Barron, Bishop, and Dunkelberg (1985), asserted that most employment is the outcome of an employer selecting from a pool of job seekers, not job seekers selecting from a pool of job oers (p. 50). This implies that we need to explore not only job-seekers attributes and behavior, but also employers motives and decision-making practices. We also need more information about the informal channels of employment,

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which are likely to involve protection and sometimes even corruption. All these issues have been neglected in the psychological studies. Their examination could help us understand why the purposeful and proactive job searching does not pay more. It might also help us to propose social policies conducive to the circumstances in which proactive job-seeking would be more eective. References
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