Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

National Draft Neg National Draft Neg...................................................................................................................................................1 A/T Readiness/Hegemony Adv............................................................................................................................... !ol"nteer #etter $ %ffi&ers/Non-Coms................................................................................................................... !ol"nteer #etter $ 'ore Com(etent........................................................................................................................) !ol"nteer #etter - 'orale........................................................................................................................................* !ol"nteer #etter - Training......................................................................................................................................6 Can+t A&&ommodate 'ore.......................................................................................................................................7 Can+t Train Draftees ..............................................................................................................................................., D"m-s Do.n 'ilitary............................................................................................................................................./ 01"i(ment/2ystems Tradeoff T"rn........................................................................................................................13 !ol"nteers 4ey to 0ffe&tiveness............................................................................................................................11 A/T %verstret&5.....................................................................................................................................................12 A/T Re&r"itment 25ortfalls....................................................................................................................................1 A/T Retention Rates...............................................................................................................................................1) A/T Com(re5ensive 2ervi&e 6rograms..................................................................................................................1* A/T 2to(s %ffensive 7ars.....................................................................................................................................16 A/T 8ra1 2&enario...................................................................................................................................................17 A/T 8ra1 2&enario...................................................................................................................................................1, A/T 8ran 2&enario...................................................................................................................................................1/ A/T 8ran 2&enario...................................................................................................................................................23 A/T Nort5 4orea 2&enario.....................................................................................................................................21 A/T C'R 2&enario................................................................................................................................................22 A/T Ra&ism Adv....................................................................................................................................................2 'inority/6oor not %verre(resented.......................................................................................................................2 A/T 'inorities %verre(resented............................................................................................................................2) A/T 'inorities %verre(resented............................................................................................................................2* A/T 6oor %verre(resented.....................................................................................................................................26 A/T 9o.er 0d"&ated %verre(resented..................................................................................................................27 Can+t :a"rentee 01"ity..........................................................................................................................................2, 2(ending 9inks......................................................................................................................................................2/ 9ink $ Draft Cost...................................................................................................................................................2/ 9ink $ 8ra1 Cost..................................................................................................................................................... 3 A/T Draft 2avings.................................................................................................................................................. 1 0&onomy DA......................................................................................................................................................... 2 1NC 25ell............................................................................................................................................................... 2 1NC ;"ality 9ink.................................................................................................................................................. 9ink - Costs............................................................................................................................................................ ) 9ink $ Cons&ri(tion Ta<........................................................................................................................................ * 9ink $ H"man Ca(ital............................................................................................................................................ 6 9ink $ 0&on T5eory............................................................................................................................................... 7 9ink $ 0m(iri&ally................................................................................................................................................. , 9ink $ 0arning 6otential........................................................................................................................................ / A/T 'ilitary 2(ending #oosts 0&onomy...............................................................................................................)3 8ra1 Draft/7it5dra. C6.........................................................................................................................................)1 1NC 25ell...............................................................................................................................................................)1 A/T Not Ready.......................................................................................................................................................)2 Timeta-le 2olves 8ra1 2e&"rity..............................................................................................................................) 1

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

7it5dra. =ra&t"res 8ns"rgen&y.............................................................................................................................)) 7it5dra. 2olves 2oft(o.er..................................................................................................................................)* 7it5dra. 2olves Readiness...................................................................................................................................)6 7it5dra. 2olves Demo 6romo.............................................................................................................................)7 Draft 2olven&y $ :eneral 2e&"rity........................................................................................................................), Draft 2olven&y - 8nfrastr"&t"re..............................................................................................................................)/ %#> 9inks..............................................................................................................................................................*3 %#> 9inks..............................................................................................................................................................*1

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Readiness/Hegemony Adv. Volunteer Better Officers/Non- oms

Volunteer force !etter for readiness !etter Non- oms Office of t"e #ndersecretary of Defense ?6ersonnel and Readiness@A $%%& ?BCons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements
and 'ilitary ReadinessC 5tt(D//....defenselink.mil/ne.s/>an233 /d233 311)avf.(df@ All !ol"nteer =or&e -- 2"(erior to Cons&ri(tionE T5e All !ol"nteer =or&e ?A!=@ 5as served t5e nation for more t5an a 1"arter &ent"ryA (roviding a military t5at is e<(erien&edA smartA dis&i(linedA and re(resentative of Ameri&a. 'oreoverA t5e A!= is more &ost-effe&tive t5an a &ons&ri(ted for&e a&&ording to many st"diesA in&l"ding an e<ternal revie. -y t5e a"diting arm of CongressA t5e F.2. :eneral A&&o"nting %ffi&e ?:A%@. T5e A!= &ontin"es to e<&eed t5e e<(e&tations of its framersA and &om(rises t5e .orld+s -est military for&e. More Experienced Non-Commissioned Officers (NCOs) Draftees 1"it earlyG vol"nteers stay $ so today+s mid-grade and senior non&ommissioned offi&ers are .ell-e<(erien&ed. D"ring t5e most re&ent draftA /3 (er&ent of &ons&ri(ts 1"it after t5eir initial t.o-year 5it&5A .5ereas retention of vol"nteers is five-times -etter -a-o"t 5alf remain after t5eir initial ?normally fo"r-year@ military servi&e o-ligation. To ("t t5is in (ers(e&tiveD 8n 1/6,-6/A a f"ll t.o-t5irds of t5e military .as serving in its first t.o years of servi&eA .5ereas today t5at n"m-er is a-o"t one-fo"rt5. %.ing to t5e 5ig5 (ersonnel t"rnover and lo. e<(erien&e asso&iated .it5 t5e draftA Army 2ergeants $ often referred to as Bs5ake and -ake sergeantsC $ 5eld fe.er t5an t.o years e<(erien&e "(on (romotionA .5ereas today t5eir e<(erien&e level is more t5an t.i&e t5at $ nearly five years.

Draft destroys retention of ran'ing officers. Bando( )*** ?Do"gA 2enior =ello. H Cato 8nstit"teA B=i<ing 75at Ain+t #rokeA T5e Rene.ed Call for Cons&ri(tionA 6oli&y
Analysis No. *1 A"g"st 1A 1///@ =or t5at reasonA fe. leaders in t5e armed servi&es .o"ld like to ret"rn to &ons&ri(tion. :ordon 2"llivanA former Army &5ief of staff and &"rrent (resident of t5e Asso&iation of t5e Fnited 2tates ArmyA statesA B'ilitary &ommanders (refer 5ig5-1"ality vol"nteers to mi<ed-1"ality draftees.C72 Retired 9t. :en. Al 9en5ardtA formerly t5e Army+s &5ief re&r"iterA em(5asiIes t5at &ons&ri(tion .o"ld yield a (oorer-1"ality for&e.7 Retired 'aJ. :en. Ted 2tro"(A former Army de("ty &5ief of staff for (ersonnelA says t5at a draft mig5t deliver t5e re1"ired 1"antityA B-"t yo" .o"ldn+t get t5e 1"ality or t5e staying (o.er t5at yo" also need.C7).7*

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Volunteer Better +ore om,etent

Volunteers "ave to ,ass a,titude tests ensures more com,etent soldiers and !etter readiness Office of t"e #ndersecretary of Defense ?6ersonnel and Readiness@A $%%& ?BCons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements
and 'ilitary ReadinessC 5tt(D//....defenselink.mil/ne.s/>an233 /d233 311)avf.(df@ 'ore Com(etent 6erformersE Today+s military is yo"nger t5an t5e (o("lation as a .5oleA is more dis&i(linedA and is more (5ysi&ally and morally fit. 8t is also smarter t5an t5e general (o("lationD over /3 (er&ent of ne. re&r"its 5ave a 5ig5 s&5ool di(loma .5ile only 7* (er&ent of Ameri&an yo"t5 doG 67 (er&ent s&ore in t5e "((er 5alf of t5e enlistment ?mat5/ver-al a(tit"de@ test. T5ese attri-"tes translate to lo.er attritionA faster trainingA and 5ig5er (erforman&e. Resear&5 s5o.s a very strong &orrelation -et.een mat5-ver-al a(tit"de s&ores and on-t5e-Jo- task (erforman&eA as meas"red -y 5ands-on (erforman&e tests a&ross t5e range of o&&"(ations. 8n =ig"re 1 .e s5o. t5at relations5i(A .5i&5 s"mmariIes a m"lti-year Defense resear&5 (roJe&tA t5e res"lts of .5i&5 5ave -een validated -y t5e National A&ademy of 2&ien&e ?NA2@. =or any a(tit"de levelA gains in on-t5e-Jo- (erforman&e are realiIed over timeA .it5 t5e lo.est &ontri-"tion made -y t5e least e<(erien&ed. Cons&ri(tion $ .it5 its &on&entration of man(o.er in early years of servi&eA g"arantees an ineffi&ient man(o.er investment. ="rt5er resear&5A validated -y t5e NA2A &onfirms t5at t5e most effi&ient investment of Defense dollars $ even .5en &onsidering t5e additional &ost of re&r"iting 5ig5er a(tit"de yo"t5 $ is realiIed .5en average re&r"it a(tit"de s&ores are -et.een t5e 63 t5 and 73t5 (er&entile. 8n &ontrastA &ons&ri(tion .o"ld &onverge to.ard t5e average ?*3t5 (er&entile@A and a less effi&ient =ederal investment.

Draftees are younger destroys readiness Office of t"e #ndersecretary of Defense ?6ersonnel and Readiness@A $%%& ?BCons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements
and 'ilitary ReadinessC 5tt(D//....defenselink.mil/ne.s/>an233 /d233 311)avf.(df@ 2. Draftees also are less likely to reenlist. D"ring t5e !ietnam eraA only 13 (er&ent of draftees ele&ted to reenlist. #e&a"se of t5e ty(i&al (attern of individ"als to serve only one s5ort termA a &ons&ri(ted for&e m"st -e &onsidera-ly larger t5an a vol"nteer for&e. ="rt5erA o.ing to t5e (a"&ity of reenlistmentsA a draft for&e .o"ld -e yo"nger and less e<(erien&edA .5i&5 5as a &5illing effe&t on Jo- (erforman&e and (ersonnel readiness.

Volunteers !etter stay longer- more com,etent and smarter #et5 Asc"A senior e&onomist at RANDA 2///$%%&
?B25o"ld Fn&le 2am 7ant Ko"LC 5tt(D//....rand.org/&ommentary/323/3 #:.5tml@ #"t -y a n"m-er of 5istori&al meas"resA t5e all-vol"nteer for&e 5as advantages over a military filled .it5 large n"m-ers of draftees. A&&ording to estimates made -y Clemson Fniversity (rofessor >o5n 7arnerA t5e average re&r"it today stays in t5e military a-o"t t.o years longer t5an did t5e average re&r"it in t5e early 1/73s. 9o.er t"rnover res"lts in a more e<(erien&ed &areer for&e. 2"&5 e<(erien&e is in&reasingly im(ortant as military o(erations -e&ome more 5ig5-te&5. !ol"nteers are also more likely to seek advan&ementA and so are likely to -e more motivated t5an draftees. 8n additionA -e&a"se vol"nteers are (aid more and &annot -e re(la&ed at .illA t5ere is a stronger in&entive to "se t5em e&onomi&allyA .it5 an em(5asis on 5ig5-a(tit"de (ersonnel. TodayMs vol"nteer for&e is t5erefore more ed"&ated t5an t5e general (o("lation -- more t5an /3 (er&ent of ne. re&r"its 5ave a 5ig5 s&5ool di(lomaA &om(ared .it5 only 7* (er&ent of t5e yo"t5 (o("lation. And a-o"t 67 (er&ent of ne. mem-ers of t5e military s&ore 5ig5 on t5e a(tit"de test "sed for re&r"itmentA &om(ared .it5 only *3 (er&ent of t5e general (o("lation . T5ese attri-"tes 5ave translated into faster training times and 5ig5er (erforman&e.

+ore com,etent less disci,linary ,ro!lems C5risto(5er .e"n- assistant se& def of for&e management and (ersonnelA $%%$
?5tt(D//....e&onli-.org/li-rary/0n&/Cons&ri(tion.5tml@ F.2. e<(erien&e sin&e t5e end of t5e draft in 1/7 validates all t5ese arg"ments. 'ilitary (ersonnel in t5e early nineties are t5e 5ig5est 1"ality in t5e nationMs 5istory. Re&r"its are -etter ed"&ated and s&ore 5ig5er on enlistment tests t5an t5eir draft-era &o"nter(arts. 8n 1//3A /* (er&ent of ne. re&r"its .ere 5ig5 s&5ool grad"atesA &om(ared to a-o"t 73 (er&ent in t5e draft era . ="lly /7 (er&ent s&ored average or a-ove on t5e Armed =or&es ;"alifi&ation TestA &om(ared to ,3 (er&ent d"ring t5e draft era. #e&a"se of t5at and -e&a"se servi&e mem-ers are all vol"nteersA t5e military 5as far fe.er dis&i(line (ro-lemsA greater e<(erien&e ?-e&a"se of less t"rnover@A and 5en&e more &a(a-ility. 2oA for e<am(leA dis&i(line ratesNnonJ"di&ial ("nis5ment and &o"rts-martialNare do.n from 1,) (er 1A333 in 1/72 to J"st 76 (er 1A333 in 1//3A and more t5an 5alf of todayMs for&e are &areeristsN(eo(le .it5 more t5an five yearsM e<(erien&eNas &om(ared to only a-o"t one-t5ird in t5e fifties and si<ties.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Volunteer Better - +orale

Volunteer force is !etter im,roved morale and readiness enter for +ilitary Readiness- $%%& ?5tt(D//....&mrlink.org/re&r"it.as(Ldo&8DO1,3@
Talk of (atriotism asideA t5e fa&t is t5at reinstit"tion of t5e draft .o"ld .eakenA not strengt5enA readiness and morale in Ameri&a+s 21st &ent"ry military. 2e&retary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld notes t5at t5e &ost of training and de(loying "n.illing soldiers .o"ld -e e<tremely 5ig5 and less (rod"&tive in terms of military readiness. D"ring a re&ent a((earan&e on t5e /e"rer Ne(s HourA Re,. +ar' 0ir' ?R-89@ am(lified t5e (ointD [Most men and women in the military] prefer to be there with other colleagues who volunteered to be there. Morale is higher, the professionalism is higher. We carry out our mission with far greater loss of any combat power. And people die in fewer numbers when we have that degree of professionalism. ?6#2A >an. /@

Draft "urts morale creates tension !et(een draftees and career soldiers Re(. Ron 1aul- $%%2 ?5tt(D//....de-ate-&entral.org/resear&5/a-draft-violates-individ"al-li-erty@
A draft .eakens t5e military -y introd"&ing tensions and rivalries -et.een t5ose .5o vol"nteer for military servi&e and t5ose .5o 5ave -een &ons&ri(ted. T5is "ndermines t5e &o5esiveness of military "nitsA .5i&5 is a vital element of military effe&tiveness. Cons&ri(ts also are "nlikely to &5oose t5e military as a &areerG t5"sA a draft .ill do little to address (ro-lems .it5 retention. 7it5 todayMs 5ig5-te&5 militaryA retention is t5e most im(ortant (ersonnel iss"e and it seems &o"nter-(rod"&tive to ado(t any (oli&y t5at .ill not address t5is im(ortant iss"e.

Draft fails destroys co"esion Bando( )**/ ?Do"gA 2enior =ello. H Cato 8nstit"teA B=i<ing 75at Ain+t #rokeA T5e Rene.ed Call for Cons&ri(tionA 6oli&y
Analysis No. *1 A"g"st 1A 1///@ T5e res"lt of a rene.ed draft .o"ld -e to s"-stit"te some (eo(le .5o do not .ant to serve for some .5o do. Reinstit"ting &ons&ri(tion .o"ld add to t5e armed servi&es a fe. -rig5ter soldiers along .it5 many .5o .ere less -rig5t. T5e draft .o"ld -e so&ially disr"(tive and e&onomi&ally &ostlyG it .o"ld 5arm military &o5esionA dis&i(lineA and retention. =inallyA &ons&ri(tion .o"ld -e grossly "nfair to t5e fe. 1,-year-olds .5o fo"nd t5emselves "n.illingly in "niform .5ile a vast maJority of t5eir &om(atriots .ent a-o"t t5eir lives as -efore.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Volunteer Better - Training DRA3T O+1R4+4565 BATT/6346/D TA T4 5 B7 6N O#RA84N8 R6 0/655 +4554ON5.

Bando( 9** ?Do"gA 2enior =ello. H Cato 8nstit"teA B=i<ing 75at Ain+t #rokeA T5e Rene.ed Call for Cons&ri(tionA 6oli&y Analysis
No. *1 A"g"st 1A 1///@ T5e e<isten&e of a draft also affe&ts -attlefield ta&ti&s. T5e availa-ility of essentially endless s"((lies of man(o.er allo.ed t5e Nort5 in t5e Civil 7ar and most of t5e &o"ntries (arti&i(ating in 7orld 7ar 8 to "ndertake t5ose -loody .ars of attrition. 8n t5e latter &onfli&tA #ritis5 (rime minister David 9loyd :eorge ragedA BT5e generals &o"ld not -e e<(e&ted to J"dge t5e iss"e dis(assionately. T5eir re&kless .astage of t5e man (o.er so lavis5ly (la&ed at t5eir dis(osal also vitiated t5eir J"dgement.C /, To &onstrain t5e generalsA 9loyd :eorge limited troo( reinfor&ements.

an9t train draftees in time (ill destroy readiness in t"e long term
2&ott Ritter- former FN C5ief 7ea(ons 8ns(e&torA )/27/$%%2 ?5tt(D//....alternet.org/.ireta(/ **17/@ D: 7o"ld yo" s"((ort a draftA like C5arles Rangel ?D-NK@ is doingL 5R: NoA -e&a"se Rangel is s"((orting a draft for (oliti&al reasons. To me t5e military is a-o"t national defenseA national se&"rityA and o"r military today is e1"i((ed .it5 some of t5e finest te&5nology t5e .orldMs ever seen. 8tMs 5orri-le te&5nologyA -"t from a military (ers(e&tiveA itMs good st"ff. 8t re1"ires a lot of training. 75en yo" talk a-o"t &ons&ri(ting (eo(leA yo"Mre talking a-o"t .5atA a t.o-year termL Ko" &anMt even train a good infantryman in t.o yearsA and so 8 .o"ldnMt -e in favor of a draft -e&a"se it t"rns o"r military it d"m-s it do.n. 8 kno. .5ere Rangel is &oming fromA -"t seeA .5y is it yo" 5ave to 5ave a son or da"g5ter in t5e military -efore yo" &are a-o"t t5e men and .omen in t5e militaryL 7e s5o"ld get Ameri&ans to "nderstand t5at Pt5isQ is o"r militaryA every man and .oman in t5at military -elongs to "s. 8tMs o"r res(onsi-ility. T5ey donMt 5ave to -e o"r sonsA o"r da"g5tersA o"r -rot5ersA o"r sistersA o"r &o"sinsA o"r relativesA o"r friends -- t5eyMre Ameri&ans. 2o .e s5o"ld 5ave o.ners5i( of t5ese (eo(leA and .e s5o"ldnMt allo. t5em to go o"t and die in a &a"se t5atMs not .ort5y of t5e sa&rifi&e. 8 J"st t5ink itMs a &o(-o"t to say t5at .e 5ave to 5ave a draft -efore Ameri&a &ares. Ameri&a s5o"ld &are .it5o"t a draft.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

an9t Accommodate +ore

+ilitary can9t accommodate more mem!ers
Nat5aniel 3ic'A former 'arine &a(tainA >"ly 23A 23%; ?BDon+t D"m- Do.n t5e 'ilitaryAC Ne. Kork Times@ T5e se&ond arg"ment most often advan&ed for a rene.ed draft is t5at t5e military is too small to meet its &ommitments. A-sol"tely tr"e. #"t t5e armed for&es are stret&5ed t5in not from a la&k of vol"nteers -"t -e&a"se Congress and t5e 6entagon are not .illing to s(end t5e money to e<(and t5e for&e. 0a&5 of t5e servi&es met or e<&eeded its re&r"iting goals in 233 A and t5e n"m-ers 5ave in&reased a&ross t5e -oard so far t5is year. 0ven t5e Army National :"ardA often &ited as t5e a-"sed -east of -"rden in 8ra1A 5as seen re-enlistments soar (ast its goalA 6* (er&entA to 1)1 (er&ent ?t5e fig"re is greater t5an 133 -e&a"se many g"ardsmen are re-enlisting early@.

Doesn9t matter volunteer force is !etter draft (on9t effect mo!ili<ation or recruitment Re(. Ron 1aul- $%%2 ?5tt(D//....de-ate-&entral.org/resear&5/a-draft-violates-individ"al-li-erty@
A Draft is Not Needed T5e De(artment of Defense 5as &onfirmed t5at &ons&ri(tion serves no military need. Defense offi&ials from -ot5 (arties 5ave re("diated it. 2e&retary of Defense Donald R"msfeld 5as statedA RT5e disadvantages of "sing &om("lsion to -ring into t5e armed for&es t5e men and .omen needed are nota-leAR .5ile 6resident 7illiam ClintonMs 2e&retary of t5e Army 9o"is CalderaA in a s(ee&5 -efore t5e National 6ress Cl"-A admitted t5atA RTodayA .it5 o"r smallerA (ost-Cold 7ar armed for&esA o"r stronger vol"nteer tradition and o"r need for longer terms of servi&e to get a good ret"rn on t5e 5ig5A "(front training &ostsA it .o"ld -e even 5arder to fas5ion a fair draft.R 8n fa&tA a De(artment of Defense re(ort stated t5at draft registration &o"ld -e eliminated R.it5 no effe&t on military mo-iliIation and no meas"ra-le effe&t on military re&r"itment.R TodayMs military is more 5ig5 te&5 and s(e&ialiIed t5an ever -eforeA and an ed"&ated vol"nteer for&e is re1"ired to o(erate o"r modern ArmyA NavyA and Air =or&e. 'ost military e<(erts -elieve a draft .o"ld a&t"ally im(air military readinessA des(ite t5e in&rease in ra. man(o.erA -e&a"se of training and morale (ro-lems.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

an9t Train Draftees

Training 'ey in modern (arfare insufficient time for draftees Nat5aniel 3ic'- former 'arine &a(tainA >"ly 23A $%%; ?BDon+t D"m- Do.n t5e 'ilitaryAC Ne. Kork Times@
8 .ent to .ar as a -eliever in t5e &itiIen-soldier. 'y &ollege st"dy of t5e &lassi&s idealiIed :reeks .5o ("t do.n t5eir (lo.s for s.ordsA ret"rning to t5eir fields at t5e end of t5e .ar. As a 'arine offi&er in Afg5anistan and 8ra1A 5o.everA 8 learned t5at t5e vi&tors on todayMs -attlefields are long-termA (rofessional soldiers. T5"s t5e in&reasing &alls for reinstating t5e draft -- and t5e -ills no. -efore Congress t5at .o"ld do so -- are .ell intentioned -"t misg"ided. 8m(osing a draft on t5e military 8 served in .o"ld 5arm it grievo"sly for years. 8 led (latoons of vol"nteers. 8n Afg5anistanA my marines sle(t ea&5 nig5t in 5oles t5ey 5a&ked from t5e ro&ky gro"nd. T5ey &arried 5"ndred-(o"nd (a&ks in addition to t5eir fears of minefields and am-"s5esA t5eir 5omesi&knessA loneliness and e<5a"stion. T5e most J"nior did it for S/6).,3 (er mont5. T5ey didnMt &om(lainA and 8 never .restled .it5 dis&i(line (ro-lems. 0a&5 and every marine .anted to -e t5ere. 8f anyone 5adnMtA 5e .o"ld 5ave -een a drain on t5e (latoon and a lia-ility in &om-at. 8n 8ra1A 8 &ommanded a re&onnaissan&e (latoonA t5e 'arinesM s(e&ial o(erations for&e. 'any of my enlisted marines .ere &ollege-ed"&atedG some 5ad -een to grad"ate s&5ool. All 5ad vol"nteered on&e for t5e 'arinesA again for t5e infantryA and a t5ird time for re&on. T5ey .ere (ro"d to serve as (art of an elite "nit. 9ike most demanding (rofessionalsA t5ey .ere t5eir o.n 5ars5est &riti&sA intolerant of t5eir (eers .5ose (erforman&e fell s5ort. T5e d"m- gr"nt is an ana&5ronism. He 5as -een re(la&ed -y t5e strategi& &or(oral. 8mmense fire(o.er and im(roved te&5nology 5ave ("s5ed de&ision-making .it5 national &onse1"en&es do.n to individ"al enlisted men. 'odern .arfare re1"ires t5at even t5e most J"nior infantryman master a .ide array of te&5ni&al and ta&ti&al skills. Honing t5ese skills to refle<A a (rere1"isite for s"rvival in &om-atA takes time -- a year of formal training and anot5er year of ont5e-Jo- e<(erien&e .ere generally needed to transform my yo"ng marines into &om(etent .arriors. T5e 'arine Cor(s demands fo"r-year a&tive enlistments -e&a"se it takes t5at long to train troo(s and ens"re t5ose training dollars are ("t to "se in t5e field. %ne- or t.o-year termsA t5e longest t5at .o"ld -e likely "nder &ons&ri(tionA .o"ld sim(ly not allo. for t5is &om(re5ensive training.

4nsufficient time to train draftees =red 0a,lan- 2late &omm"nistA >"ly A $%%; ?BDon+t get &a"g5t in a draftAC C5i&ago 2"n-Times@
8t takes a-o"t si< mont5s to ("t a soldier t5ro"g5 -asi& training. 8t takes a fe. mont5s more to train one for a s(e&ialiIed skill. T5e kinds of &onfli&ts Ameri&an soldiers are likely to fa&e in t5e &oming de&ades .ill -e t5e kinds t5ey fa&e in 8ra1A Afg5anistanA 4osovo and #osnia -- Rse&"rity and sta-iliIation o(erationsAR in military (arlan&e. T5ese kinds of o(erations re1"ire more training t5an firing a rifleA driving a tank or dro((ing a -om-. 8f &ons&ri(tion is revivedA draftees are not likely to serve more t5an t.o years. Rig5t no.A t5e average vol"nteer in t5e F.2. armed for&es 5as served five years. #y most meas"resA an Army of draftees .o"ld -e generally less effe&tive t5an an Army of vol"nteers. T5eir task is too vital to tolerate s"&5 a sa&rifi&e for t5e &a"se of so&ial J"sti&e.

5'ill out(eig"s num!ers Tim 0aneA #radley =ello. 9a-or 6oli&y Center for Data Analysis Heritage =o"ndationA Noverm-er 7A $%%= ?B75o #ears t5e
#"rdenAC Heritage =o"ndation Center for Data and AnalysisA 1@ T5e &ari&at"re of &ons&ri(tion -- a 5ars5 reality of 0"ro(ean militaries in t5e 1,t5 and 1/t5 &ent"ries -- lives on in t5e (o("lar imaginationA -"t it does not a&&"rately re(resent t5e all-vol"nteer F.2. military. 8ndeedA t5e F.2. militaryMs 1"alitative s"(eriority is .5at makes it t5e most effi&ient and let5al &om-at for&e in 5istory. 8n e&onomi& termsA 5ig5-skill 5"man &a(ital among troo(s makes t5e military more (rod"&tive overall. T5ere may -e legitimate e1"ity &on&erns t5at o"t.eig5 national se&"rityA -"t t5ey .ill "ndo"-tedly &ome at a &ost or trade-off in (rod"&tivity.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Dum!s Do(n +ilitary

Draft dum!s do(n military tan's effectiveness Nat5aniel 3ic'A former 'arine &a(tainA >"ly 23A $%%; ?BDon+t D"m- Do.n t5e 'ilitaryAC Ne. Kork Times@
And .5ile draft s"((orters insist .e 5ave learned t5e lessons of !ietnam and &an &reate a fair system t5is time aro"ndA even an e1"ita-le draft .o"ld lo.er t5e standards for enlistees. Defense 2e&retary Donald R"msfeld .as &5astised for saying !ietnam-era draftees added no val"e to t5e armed for&es. #"t 5is error .as semanti&G t5e statement .as tr"e of t5e systemA if not of t5e (atrioti& and &a(a-le individ"als .5o served. T5e &"rrent vol"nteer for&e reJe&ts a((li&ants .5o s&ore (oorly on its entran&e a(tit"de e<amA dis&lose a 5istory of signifi&ant dr"g "se or s"ffer from any of a n"m-er of ort5o(edi& or &5roni& inJ"ries. =a&e itD any "n.illing draftee &o"ld easily find a .ay to fail any of t5ese tests. T5e militaryA t5enA .o"ld -e left eit5er to a-andon its standards and a&&e(t all &omersA or to remain tr"e to t5em and allo. t5e draft to -e&ome vol"nteerism -y anot5er name. 2tri((ed of its vol"nteer ideologyA -"t still "na-le to &om(el servi&e from dissentersA t5e military .o"ld end "( .eaker and less re(resentative t5an t5e vol"nteer for&e -- t5e very o((osite of t5e draftMs intended goals. Rene.ing t5e draft .o"ld -e a -lo. against t5e men and .omen in "niformA a d"m-ing do.n of t5e instit"tion t5ey serve. T5e Fnited 2tates military e<ists to .in -attlesA not to test so&ial (oli&y. 0nlarging t5e vol"nteer for&e .o"ld s5o. o"r soldiers t5at Ameri&ans re&ogniIe t5eir 5ards5i( and are .illing to (ay t5e -ill to 5el( t5em -etter (rote&t t5e nation. 'y vie. of t5e &itiIensoldier .as alteredA -"t not destroyedA in &om-at. 7e &annot all (i&k "( t5e s.ordA nor s5o"ld .e -e for&ed to -- -"t .e o.e o"r s"((ort to t5ose .5o do.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

6>ui,ment/5ystems Tradeoff Turn

Draft causes e>ui,ment and systems s,ending tradeoff tan's readiness in t"e long run Office of t"e #ndersecretary of Defense ?6ersonnel and Readiness@A $%%& ?BCons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements
and 'ilitary ReadinessC 5tt(D//....defenselink.mil/ne.s/>an233 /d233 311)avf.(df@ Red"&ed 'an(o.er for 2marter 7ea(on 2ystemsE T5e A!= 5as en&o"raged a far more &onservative "se of la-or t5an .o"ld -e t5e &ase .it5 a &ons&ri(ted for&e. T5e 5ig5-a(tit"deA 5ig5-e<(erien&e A!= 5as en&o"raged t5e De(artment to leverage its .ea(ons (ro&"rement in t5e dire&tion of systems t5at are e1"ally or more let5alA .5ile re1"iring fe.er ?al-eit smarter and more e<(erien&ed@ (eo(le. 8n ot5er .ordsA t5e systems 5ave -een designed and (ro&"red .it5 t5e A!= in mindA and t5at design is not &om(ati-le .it5 a &ons&ri(ted for&e. =or e<am(leA t5e Army+s '"lti(le 9a"n&5 Ro&ket 2ystem re(la&es 5o.itIer -atteries and generates greater fire(o.er .it5 a &re. siIe less t5an 5alf t5at asso&iated .it5 t5e system it re(la&ed. T5e demand for s"(ervisors $and a 5ig5er e<(erien&e (rofile $ is essential. 2imilar trends are (laying o"t a&ross all 2ervi&es. 8n t5e NavyA for e<am(leA D"nnigan re(ortsD B%ver t5e last yearA several s5i(s 5ave -een fitted .it5 more a"tomated gearA and many remote sensorsA so t5at one ?trained and e<(erien&ed@ sailor &an &5e&k t5e (erforman&e of m"lti(le items of e1"i(ment .it5o"t moving aro"nd a lot. A &loser look at .5at a lot of sailors did res"lted in a reorganiIation t5at eliminated a lot of &5ores and reorganiIed ot5ers to take less time. 8m(roved &omm"ni&ationsA (arti&"larly s5i(-oard a&&ess to t5e internetA made it (ossi-le for a lot of administrative Jo-s to -e done as5ore. As a res"lt of t5isA several destroyers and &r"isers 5ad t5eir &re.s &"t -y a-o"t t.enty (er&ent. T5is is im(ortantA as t5e (ro(osed designs for ne. &lasses of .ars5i(s &all for even smaller &re.s. 'any s5i( designers are "rging &re. siIes of a 5"ndred or so sailors for destroyers and &r"isers. 0ven &arriers are looking to s5ed a-o"t a 1"arter of t5eir *A333 sailors and aviators. BCre. siIe 5as -een falling E PdQ"ring 7orld 7ar 88A destroyers tended to 5ave over a 5"ndred &re. (er t5o"sand tons of dis(la&ement. 0ven .it5o"t t5e &"rrent reformsA t5e &re. siIe is no. 5alf .5at is .as d"ring 7orld 7ar 88. 8n additionA t5e Navy .as for&ed to (ay &lose attention to smaller &re. siIes in one &lass of s5i(sG s"-marines. 75ile modern s"-s are fo"r times t5e siIe of t5eir 7orld 7ar 88 &o"nter(artsA and f"ll of m"&5 more e1"i(mentA &re. siIe 5as only do"-led.C , T5is ne. generation of e1"i(ment re(la&es (eo(le .it5 ma&5ines .5ere (ossi-leA lo.ering overall system &osts .5ile (la&ing a (remi"m on training and e<(erien&e of t5e 5ig5-1"ality &re.. T5ese are e<a&tly t5e attri-"tes of t5e A!=G t5ey are not t5e attri-"tes of a &ons&ri(ted for&e.

+ore troo,s trades off (it" e>ui,ment and tec" Dr. >ames arafano- senior resear&5 fello. H HeritageA $%%= ?5tt(D//....5eritage.org/Resear&5/HomelandDefense/t5e-long-.ar&51.&fm@ Dum! 4dea No. &D Add +ore Troo,s. 6ermanently s.elling t5e ranks of t5e military -y tens of t5o"sands is not t5e ans.er. 6ermanent in&reases -ring all t5e -aggage of a 23-year &areerG -ig-ti&ket items like 5o"singA medi&al &areA and retirement. 75en 8ra1 ram(s do.nA t5e armed for&es .ill 5ave more troo(s t5an t5ey need. 8f all t5ose troo(s .ere Breg"larsAC t5e 6entagon .o"ld eit5er 5ave to kee( t5em all a-oardNs5o"ldering needless e<(enseNor la"n&5 a disr"(tive and &ostly do.nsiIing. Too large a military .ill take "s rig5t -a&k to t5e 5ollo. for&eA .it5 too fe. reso"r&es to trainA e1"i(A and em(loy t5e availa-le troo(s.

13

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Volunteers 0ey to 6ffectiveness

Desire to fig"t 'ey to military effectivness =red 0a,lan- 2late &omm"nistA >"ly A $%%; ?@Don+t get &a"g5t in a draftAC C5i&ago 2"n-Times@
T5ere is a still more -asi& 1"estionD 75at is t5e ("r(ose of a militaryL 8s it to s(read t5e so&ial -"rden -- or to fig5t and .in .arsL T5e F.2. a&tive-d"ty armed for&es are more (rofessional t5an at any time in de&adesA (er5a(s ever . T5is is so -e&a"se t5ey are &om(osed of (eo(le .5o (assed &om(aratively stringent entran&e e<ams -- andA more im(ortantA (eo(le .5o .ant to -e t5ere orA if t5ey no longer .ant to -e t5ereA kno. t5at t5ey &5ose to -e t5ere in t5e first (la&e. An Army of draftees .o"ld in&l"de many -rig5tA &a(a-le (eo(leG -"t it .o"ld also in&l"de many incom,etent malcontents ("o (ould (ind u, getting more of t"eir fello( soldiers 'illed.

11

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Overstretc"
Overstretc" eAaggerated #5 not at t"reat from Russia anymore Bando( 9** ?Do"gA 2enior =ello. H Cato 8nstit"teA B=i<ing 75at Ain+t #rokeA T5e Rene.ed Call for Cons&ri(tionA 6oli&y Analysis
No. *1 A"g"st 1A 1///@ 0ven 7as5ington+s more serio"s &ommitments are no arg"ment for &ons&ri(tion. =or e<am(leA t5e Fnited 2tates maintains 133A333 soldiers in 0"ro(e to defend against (5antom divisions of t5e Red Army. #ritainA =ran&eA and :ermany toget5er s(end more on t5e military t5an does R"ssia. >a(an is t5e se&ond-ranking glo-al e&onomi& (o.er and fa&es no serio"s se&"rity t5reatsG 2o"t5 4orea (ossesses nearly 3 times t5e :D6 of its &omm"nist Nort5 4orean antagonist. 8t is 5ard to make a serio"s arg"ment on t5e -asis of national interest for t5e (resen&e of any F.2. troo(s in t5ose regionsNes(e&ially a (resen&e (rovided -y a draft.

12

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Recruitment 5"ortfalls

Recruitment s"ortfall eAaggerated Tim 0ane- #radley =ello. 9a-or 6oli&y Center for Data Analysis Heritage =o"ndationA Noverm-er 7A $%%= ?B75o #ears t5e
#"rdenAC Heritage =o"ndation Center for Data and AnalysisA 1@ Alt5o"g5 all -ran&5es of t5e armed servi&es 5ave -een a-le to meet re&r"iting goals in re&ent yearsA t5e ArmyMs diffi&"lty in meeting its goal of ,3A333 ne. soldiers in 233* 5as -een .idely re(ortedA and some vie. it as a sym-ol of t5e need to reinstate t5e draft. Ho.everA t5is s5ortfall s5o"ld -e (la&ed in t5e (ro(er &onte<t. T5e Army is (roJe&ted to fall J"st 7A333 ?a-o"t / (er&ent@ s5ort of its 233* re&r"itment goalA .5i&5 is less t5an 1 (er&ent of t5e overall military of over 1 million (ersonnel. ="rt5ermoreA t5ere is t5e "ne<(e&ted rise in re-enlistment rates. 8n ot5er .ordsA t5e total for&e strengt5 is a-o"t .5at it s5o"ld -e.

6A,erts agree don9t need draft to ma'e u, ,ersonnel s"ortfall 5tevens =-)B-$%%2 ?F.2. 20NAT%R T0D 2T0!0N2 ?R-A4@A CHA8R'ANA F.2. 20NAT%R T0D 2T0!0N2 ?R-A4@ H%9D2 A
H0AR8N: %N =82CA9 K0AR 2337 A66R%6R8AT8%N2 =%R TH0 D06ART'0NT %= D0=0N20 =DCH 6oliti&al Trans&ri(ts 'ay 17A 2336 7ednesday@ D%R:AND 'r. 2e&retaryA .eMre stret&5ed (retty t5in in a range of areas -- National :"ard and ot5er areas. Do yo" foresee any &ir&"mstan&e "nder .5i&5 in t5e f"t"re t5e se&retary of defense .ill re&ommend t5e reinstit"tion of a military draftL R#+536/DD 8 5ate to ans.er t5e se&ond (art firstA -"t 8 .ill. T"e ans(er is flat no. 7e donMt need a draft. 8 .o"ld -e 5armf"l to reinstit"te a draft. 7e 5ave a &o"ntry of -- .5atL -- &lose to 33 million (eo(leA and .e 5ave an a&tive d"ty for&e of 1.) million and :"ard and Reserve of anot5er )*3A333. And all .e need to do is .5at anyone else .it5 a vol"nteer entity 5as to doA and t5atMs adJ"st t5e in&entives so t5at yo" &an attra&t and retain t5e (eo(le yo" need and 5ave to 5ave to defend t5is &o"ntry. And t5ank t5e good 9ord t5ere are (lenty of (eo(le ("tting t5eir 5ands "( and vol"nteering to do t5atA even t5o"g5 &o"ld (ossi-ly -e in a safer (osition or a more &omforta-le (ositionA and t5eyMre doing it.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Retention Rates

Volunteer military (ants to !e t"ere conscri,tion destroys retention rates Bando( 9** ?Do"gA 2enior =ello. H Cato 8nstit"teA B=i<ing 75at Ain+t #rokeA T5e Rene.ed Call for Cons&ri(tionA 6oli&y
Analysis No. *1 A"g"st 1A 1///@ 'oreoverA a vol"nteer military dra.s in (eo(le .5o .ant to -e t5ere instead of dragooning (eo(le .5o do notA t5ere-y &reating a dramati&ally more (ositive dynami&. T5"sA t5e military &an dis&5arge soldiers .5o a-"se dr"gsA (erform (oorlyA or are not ot5er.ise s"ited to servi&e life.77 8n &ontrastA t5e servi&es m"st retain draftees at all &ostA lest indis&i(line -e&ome a means of es&a(e.7, All (5ases of military life are transformed for t5e -etter .5en t5e armed for&es are made "( of (eo(le .5o Join vol"ntarily and desire to s"&&eed. Career retention 5as long -een a 6entagon &on&ern.7/ Ho.everA &ons&ri(tion .o"ld a&t"ally e<a&er-ate t5at (ro-lem. A draft -rings in "ntrained first termersA not e<(erien&ed (ilots. And &ons&ri(tsA .5o don+t .ant to -e in "niformA reenlist in far lo.er n"m-ers t5an do vol"nteers. %nly 13 (er&ent of first termers stayed in t5e military .5en servi&e .as mandatory &om(ared .it5 a-o"t *3 (er&ent today "nder t5e A!=. 'oreoverA t5e in&reased diffi&"lties in .orking .it5 re&al&itrant soldiers .5o 5ave -een drafted means even e<(erien&ed non&ommissioned offi&ers are less likely to remain. =or instan&eA retention of t5ose (ersonnel in t5eir fo"rt5 year of servi&e do"-led -et.een =K71 and =K77.,3 T5e mean lengt5 of servi&e J"m(ed from a-o"t 73 mont5s in 1/7 to /3 mont5s in 1//7.,1 T5"sA =ran&is R"s5A a&ting assistant se&retary of defense for for&e management (oli&yA re(ortsA BA for&e &om(osed of vol"nteers is more sta-le and &areer-orientedA t5ere-y leading to im(roved e<(erien&e and (erforman&eA .it5 lo.er training and t"rnover &osts t5an .e .o"ld find .it5 a draft.C,2 A ret"rn to &ons&ri(tion .o"ld yield a less-e<(erien&edA less-sta-leA and less-effi&ient military. 8nd"&ementA not &oer&ionA is t5e ans.er to sagging retention. 2t"dies &onsistently indi&ate t5at t5e most effe&tive remedy is im(roved &om(ensation

1)

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T om,re"ensive 5ervice 1rograms

2. Draft tan's readiness more >ualified draftees go to ot"er services Bando( 9** ?Do"gA 2enior =ello. H Cato 8nstit"teA B=i<ing 75at Ain+t #rokeA T5e Rene.ed Call for Cons&ri(tionA 6oli&y Analysis
No. *1 A"g"st 1A 1///@ Civilian &ons&ri(tion &o"ld also degrade military effe&tiveness eit5er -y &reating &om(etition for 1"ality re&r"its or -y overloading t5e servi&es .it5 "nne&essary (ersonnel. =or instan&eA t5ere is eviden&e t5at "niversal servi&e 5as 5armed 8srael+s militaryA res"lting Bin a -loated offi&er &or(s as .ell as an "ndertrained and "nready army in .5i&5 many &ons&ri(ts 5ave no real Jo-s.C123 8n addition to &reating ot5er (ro-lemsA large-s&ale vol"ntary national servi&e (rograms .o"ld almost &ertainly divert -rig5t yo"ng (eo(le from t5e military.121 0ven today+s limited AmeriCor(s may -e 5aving an adverse effe&t on military re&r"itmentD more t5an 5alf of yo"ng men s"rveyed o(ine t5at BAmeriCor(s and ot5er (rograms offer -etter .ays to get money for &ollege.C122 Ket t5e (resident re&ently (ro(osed to do"-le t5e n"m-er of (arti&i(ants in t5at (rogram.

1*

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T 5to,s Offensive Cars

No ,romotes it !ecause t"e (ar doesn9t need ,o,ular su,,ort to maintain volunteer levels Re(. Ron 1aul- $%%2 ?5tt(D//....de-ate-&entral.org/resear&5/a-draft-violates-individ"al-li-erty@
A Draft 6romotes %ffensive 7ars 7oodro. 7ilson or&5estrated o"r entry into 7orld 7ar 8 -y first (romising d"ring t5e ele&tion of 1/16 to kee( "s o"t of t5e 0"ro(ean &onfli&tA t5en a fe. mont5s later (ress"ring and mane"vering Congress into de&laring .ar against :ermany. 75et5er it .as t5e 2(anis5 Ameri&an 7ar -efore t5at or all t5e .ars sin&eA F.2. (residents 5ave de&eived t5e (eo(le to gain (o("lar s"((ort for ill-&on&eived military vent"res. 7ilson .anted t5e .ar and immediately demanded &ons&ri(tion to fig5t it. He didnMt 5ave t5e g"ts even to name t5e (rogram a military draftG instead in a s(ee&5 -efore Congress &alling for .ar 5e advised t5e army s5o"ld -e R&5osen "(on t5e (rin&i(le of "niversal lia-ility to servi&e.R 'ost Ameri&ans at t5e time of t5e de&laration didnMt -elieve a&t"al &om-at troo(s .o"ld -e sent. 75at a dramati& &5ange from t5is early (er&e(tionA .5en t5e (eo(le endorsed t5e .arA to t5e &arnage t5at follo.ed - and t5e later disill"sionment .it5 7ilson and 5is grand s&5eme for .orld government "nder t5e 9eag"e of Nations. T5e Ameri&an (eo(le reJe&ted t5is gross ne. entanglementA a refle&tion of a some.5at 5ealt5ier age t5an t5e one .e find o"rselves in today. #"t .5en it &omes to .arA t5e (rin&i(le of de&e(tion lives on. T5e (lan for R"niversal lia-ility to serveR on&e again is raising its "gly 5ead. T5e dollar &ost of t5e &"rrent .ar is already staggeringA yet (lans are -eing made to drasti&ally e<(and t5e 5"man &ost -y for&ing &ons&ri(tion on t5e yo"ng men ?and may-e .omen@ .5o 5ave no a< to grind .it5 t5e 8ra1i (eo(le and .ant no (art of t5is fig5t. H"ndreds of Ameri&ans 5ave already -een killedA and t5o"sands more .o"nded and &ri((ledA .5ile t5o"sands of ot5ers .ill e<(erien&e ne. and deadly .ar-related illnesses not yet identified. 7e .ere told .e 5ad to s"((ort t5is (re-em(tive .ar against 8ra1 -e&a"se 2addam H"ssein 5ad .ea(ons of mass destr"&tion ?and to &onfront al ;aeda@. 8t .as said o"r national se&"rity de(ended on it. #"t all t5ese dangers .ere fo"nd not to e<ist in 8ra1. 8t .as im(lied t5at la&k of s"((ort for t5is 8ra1i invasion .as "n-Ameri&an and "n(atrioti&. 2in&e t5e original reasons for t5e .ar never e<istedA it is no. &laimed t5at .eMre t5ere to make 8ra1 a .estern-style demo&ra&y and to s(read .estern val"es. And -esidesA itMs arg"edA itMs ni&e t5at 2addam H"ssein 5as -een removed from (o.er. #"t does t5e mere e<isten&e of evil some.5ere in t5e .orld J"stify (reem(tive .ar at t5e e<(ense of t5e Ameri&an (eo(leL Fto(ian dreamsA f"lfilled -y a"to&rati& meansA 5ardly 1"alify as -eing morally J"stifia-le. T5ese after-t5e-fa&t e<&"ses for invasion and o&&"(ation of a sovereign nation dire&t attention a.ay from t5e &5arge t5at t5e military ind"strial &om(le< en&o"raged t5is .ar. 8t .as en&o"raged -y .ar (rofiteeringA a desire to &ontrol nat"ral reso"r&es ?oil@A and a Neo&on agenda of Ameri&an 5egemony .it5 t5e goal of redra.ing t5e -orders of t5e &o"ntries of t5e 'iddle 0ast. T5e inevita-le fail"re of s"&5 a serio"sly fla.ed foreign (oli&y &annot -e &ontem(lated -y t5ose .5o 5ave ("t so m"&5 energy into t5is o&&"(ation. T5e &"rrent 1"agmire (rom(ts &alls from many for es&alationA .it5 more troo(s -eing sent to 8ra1. 'any of o"r reservists and National :"ardsmen &annot .ait to get o"t and 5ave no (lans to re-enlist. T5e odds are t5at o"r (oli&y of foreign interventionA .5i&5 5as -een .it5 "s for many de&adesA is not likely to soon &5ange. T5e dilemma of 5o. to .in an "n-.inna-le .ar is t5e iss"e -egging for an ans.er. To get more troo(sA t5e draft .ill likely -e reinstated. T5e im(li&it (ro5i-ition of Rinvol"ntary servit"deR "nder t5e 1 t5 Amendment to t5e Constit"tion 5as already -een ignored many times so fe. .ill &5allenge t5e &onstit"tionality of t5e &oming draft.

16

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A/T 4ra> 5cenario

5TA74N8 CON9T COR0 TROO15 DON9T TH4N0 C6 AN C4N Ne( 7or' TimesD 2/2,/$%%2G Ni&5olas 4ristof ?%(-0d .riter T 6"litIer .inning re(orter@
Hog.as5U A ne. (oll to -e released today s5o.s t5at F.2. soldiers over.5elmingly .ant o"t of 8ra1 -- and soon. T5e (oll is t5e first of F.2. troo(s &"rrently serving in 8ra1A a&&ording to >o5n Vog-yA t5e (ollster. Cond"&ted -y Vog-y 8nternational and 9e'oyne CollegeA it asked /)) servi&e mem-ersA MMHo. long s5o"ld F.2. troo(s stay in 8ra1L MM %nly 2 (er&ent -a&ked 'r. #"s5Ms (osition t5at t5ey s5o"ld stay as long as ne&essary . 8n &ontrastA 72 (er&ent said t5at F.2. troo(s s5o"ld -e ("lled o"t .it5in one year. %f t5oseA 2/ (er&ent said t5ey s5o"ld .it5dra. MMimmediately.MM T5atMs one more -it of eviden&e t5at o"r grim stay-t5e-&o"rse (oli&y in 8ra1 5as failed. 0ven t5e Ameri&an troo(s on t5e gro"nd donMt -"y into it -- and 5aving administration offi&ials (ontifi&ate from t5e safety of 7as5ington a-o"t t5e need for ordinary soldiers to stay t5e &o"rse f"rt5er erodes military morale. 75ile t5e 75ite Ho"se em(5asiIes t5e t5reat from non-8ra1i terroristsA only 26 (er&ent of t5e F.2. troo(s say t5at t5e ins"rgen&y .o"ld end if t5ose foreign fig5ters &o"ld -e ke(t o"t. A (l"rality -elieves t5at t5e ins"rgen&y is made "( over.5elmingly of dis&ontented 8ra1i 2"nnis. 2o .5at .o"ld it take to .in in 8ra1L 'ay-e t5at .as t5e single most de(ressing finding in t5is (oll. #y a t.o-to-one ratioA t5e troo(s said t5at MMto &ontrol t5e ins"rgen&y .e need to do"-le t5e level of gro"nd troo(s and -om-ing missions.MM And sin&e t5ere is Iero &5an&e of t5at 5a((eningA a maJority of troo(s seemed to -e saying t5at t5ey -elieve t5is .ar to -e un(inna!le. T5is first systemati& look at t5e vie.s of t5e F.2. troo(s on t5e gro"nd s"ggests t5at o"r (resent strategy in 8ra1 is failing !adly. T5e troo(s over.5elmingly donMt .ant to MMstay t5e &o"rseAMM and t5ey donMt seem to t5ink t5e Ameri&an strategy &an s"&&eed.

NO R450 O3 O336N56 ON/7 A R450 THAT O #1AT4ON ONT4N#65 TO 86T COR56 THR66 R6A5ON5 TO 1#// O#T NOC 9ynn Coolsey and #ar-ara /eeG Co-C5airs of t5e Congressional 6rogressive Ca"&"sG 2/6/ %2G T5e NationG 5tt(D//....t5enation.&om/do&/23363236/.oolsey
7it5 t5e offi&ial &ase for .ar long sin&e discreditedA t5e 5"man and e&onomi& &osts mo"nting and eviden&e gro.ing t5at t5e #"s5 AdministrationMs Rstay t5e &o"rseR (oli&y may kee( "s t5ere indefinitelyA it 5as never -een &learer t5at t5e .ar in 8ra1 is a moral and functional failure. H"man de&en&yA fis&al sanity and national se&"rity demand t5at .e move 1"i&kly to -ring o"r soldiers 5ome. T5e ins"rgen&y .ill never -e 1"elled as long as Ameri&an troo(s are in 8ra1. 8tMs t5e o&&"(ation t5at gave rise to t5e ins"rgen&y in t5e first (la&e. 6very day t5at F2 -oots are on 8ra1i soilA militant anti-Ameri&anism intensifies and more ins"rgents are &reated. As one Ameri&an offi&er in 8ra1 -l"ntly ("t itD R7e &anMt kill t5em all. 75en 8 kill oneA 8 &reate t5ree.R

17

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A/T 4ra> 5cenario

TH6 O #1AT4ON AN9T 1ROD# 6 D6+O RA 7 H45TOR7 1ROV65
A"g"st"s Ri&5ard NortonG 6rofessor of Ant5ro(ology and 8nternational Relations at #oston FniversityG 2/6/ $%%2G T5e NationG 5tt(D//....t5enation.&om/do&/23363236/norton =isk sees no good &oming from t5ese &easeless interventions. 8ndeedA 5e arg"es t5at &am(aigns in t5e R.ar for &ivilisationR may -egin .it5 o(timism -"t ty(i&ally end in &atastro(5e--Ameri&aMs invasion of 8ra1 in 'ar&5 233 -eing a &ase in (oint. T5e invasion .as informed not only -y a (illful contem,t for 5istory and an e<travagant dis(lay of et"nocentrism -"t also -y a frame.ork of -est-&ase s&enarios and fantasies "nto"&5ed -y em(iri&al kno.ledge of 8ra1A as t5e &ase of t5e 8ra1i 25iites ill"strates. 4f a ne. 8ra1 emerges from t5e &"rrent violent stalemateA it .ill look very little like t5e e<em(lary demo&rati& state t5at #"s5 or 5is &5or"s of .ar--oosters envisaged. 8n fa&tA it is likely to -e &loser to t5e 8ranian model of R8slami& demo&ra&yAR (rovided it does not des&end f"rt5er into &ivil .ar. =iskMs &yni&ism a-o"t Anglo-Ameri&an (oli&y in 8ra1 is ri&5ly -orne o"t -y t5e lega&y of de(rivationA deat5 and disorder t5at t5e invasionA and t5e (re&eding de&ade of san&tions and ni--ling atta&ks -y t5e Fnited 2tates and #ritainA 5ave yielded.

TH6 O #1AT4ON AN9T C4N B6 A#56 4T9// N6V6R C4N TH6 5#NN45 Tom HaydenD Carey '&7illiams =ello. at t5e Nation 8nstit"te and former California 2tate 2enatorG 1/13/ $%%2G T5e NationG
5tt(D//....t5enation.&om/do&/2336312 /5ayden T5e notion t5at t5e Ameri&an military o&&"(ation &an silen&e t5e armed resistan&eA 8 .as toldA is arrogant folly. T5e &laim t5at t5e 2"nni minority is too small to defy t5e 25iite-4"rdis5 maJority is t5e (remise of t5e o&&"(ation. #"t s"rveys s5o. t5at t.o-t5irds of 8ra1is favor a near-term F2 .it5dra.al. 'any 25iitesA like t5e re-ellio"s follo.ers of '"1tada al-2adrA are Ara-A not 6ersianA and favor a "nified 8ra1. 8n additionA t5e 2"nni minority .ill -e s"((lemented -y 2"nnis from neig5-oring &o"ntries if t5eir e<isten&e is t5reatened. As one former >ordanian ministerA '"nt5er HaddadinA told meA RT5e 2"nnis are not really a minority -e&a"se t5e Ara- 9eag"e is t5eir &o"nter.eig5t to 8ran.R

#5 troo, increase only strengt"ens t"e insurgency can9t solve Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
As t5e F.2. troo( level 5as in&reasedA t5e ins"rgen&y 5as strengt5ened. #y all meas"resA t5e ins"rgen&y 5as only gained in strengt5 and deadliness in t5e (ast year. D"ring t5at same time (eriod t5e F2 troo( (resen&e 5as in&reased from its lo. of a-o"t 11*A333 in =e-r"ary 233) to 1),A333 today.iPviiiQ =atal atta&ks on F.2. troo(s 5ave in&reased from an average of 1 (er mont5 d"ring t5e se&ond 5alf of 233 A to *2 (er mont5 d"ring t5e first 5alf of 233)A to 6/ (er mont5 d"ring t5e se&ond 5alf of 233). iiPi<Q T5e n"m-er of troo(s .o"nded in a&tion 5as in&reased as .ellA from an average of 27, (er mont5 d"ring t5e se&ond 5alf of 233 A to )/7 (er mont5 d"ring t5e first 5alf of 233)A to 76* (er mont5 d"ring t5e se&ond 5alf of 233).iiiP<Q Atta&ks on key infrastr"&t"re also in&reased over t5at (eriod of time.ivP<iQ 6entagon estimates of t5e n"m-er of 8ra1i ins"rgents 5ave 1"adr"(led from *A333 a year ago to 23A333 today.vP<iiQ T5e de("ty &ommander of Coalition for&esA #ritis5 'aJ. :en. Andre. :ra5amA 5as estimated t5at t5ere are )3A333 to *3A333 a&tive ins"rgent fig5ters.viP<iiiQ A&&ording to inde(endent analystsA t5e ins"rgen&y also dra.s strengt5 from (art-time fig5ters and &riti&al s"((ort ?-ot5 a&tive and (assive@ from &ivilians. viiP<ivQ 8ra1+s 8ntelligen&e 'inister estimates t5ere to -e )3A333 B5ard &oreC ins"rgents .it5 a s"((ort net.ork of 233A333 8ra1is. viiiP<vQ 'ost estimates ("t t5e &ore ins"rgen&y in t5e 23A333 to )3A333 (erson range .it5 a s"((ort net.ork in t5e 133A333 to 233A333 range.i<P<viQ

1,

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T 4ran 5cenario

Draft not necessary (ar (ouldn9t !e man,o(er intensive 2&ott Ritter- former FN C5ief 7ea(ons 8ns(e&torA )/27/$%%2 ?5tt(D//....alternet.org/.ireta(/ **17/@
D: 2o 8 take it t5at yo" feel t5at if t5ere is a .ar .it5 8ranA t5ere .o"ld not -e a ret"rn of t5e draft to meet t5e man(o.er Ps5ortagesQ t5at .e &"rrently 5aveL 5R: NoA -e&a"se t5eyMre not (lanning a man(o.er intensive .ar. 7e .o"ld 5ave a (ro-lem ifA .5ile -ogged do.n in 8ranA Nort5 4orea started &a"sing a (ro-lem. T5e (ro-lem isA .5en .e e<5a"st o"r man(o.erA .e only 5ave one level to dra. -a&k onA and t5atMs n"&lear .ea(onsA so itMs a very dangero"s sit"ation. Rat5er t5an a draft t5o"g5A 8Mm all in favor of in&reasing t5e siIe of o"r land army. PDefense 2e&retaryQ R"msfeld 5as -een -e5ind t5e red"&tion of o"r &onventional military. 8Mm for e<(anding o"r &onventional militaryA -e&a"se 8 t5ink 5aving a largerA stronger &onventional military gives "s t5e &onfiden&e to deal .it5 (ro-lems aro"nd t5e .orld. 75en yo" o(erate from a (osition of strengt5A di(loma&y no. -e&omes a m"&5 more via-le o(tionA and t5ereMs less tenden&y to talk a-o"t n"&lear .ea(onsA et&. 8Mm for in&reasing t5e siIe of t5e army -y t.o divisionsA allo.ing t5e 'arine Cor(s to ram( "( to t5ree f"ll-strengt5 divisionsA and (aying for it -y getting rid of silly t5ings s"&5 as National 'issile DefenseA and also red"&ing o"r n"&lear .ea(ons.

Nuclear deterrence c"ec's Ted ar,enter- !6 of Defense 2t"dies H CAT%- )/$;/$%%2 ?Baltimore 5un- leAisE
AdmittedlyA t5e advent of 'r. A5madineJad makes t5at o(tion more nerve-.ra&king. 8t is .ort5 remem-eringA t5o"g5A t5at 4ranFs (oliti&al system is fairly diff"se and t5at 'r. A5madineJad is only one a&tor among many. 8ndeedA des(ite 5is lofty title of (residentA 5e 5ad to s"-mit several &andidates -efore 5e ind"&ed t5e (arliament to a((rove 5is nominee for oil minister. 4ran- "nder 'r. A5madineJadA is not a tig5tly &entraliIed system like :ermany "nder Hitler and t5e 2oviet Fnion "nder 2talinA .5ere one manMs de&ision &o"ld (l"nge t5e nation into .ar. 7as5ingtonMs e<(erien&e .it5 "ina in t5e 1/63s and early 1/73s is (er5a(s even more (ertinent. "ina -e&ame a n"&lear (o.er "nder 'ao Tse-t"ngA a leader .5ose vie.s on n"&lear .arfare .ere alarming in t5e e<treme. His -oast t5at "ina &o"ld o"tlast t5e Fnited 2tates in a n"&lear .ar of attrition so alarmed "inaFs allyA 'os&o.A t5at 2oviet leaders 5astened to ass"re t5eir F.2. &o"nter(arts t5at s"&5 t5inking in no .ay refle&ted t5e 4remlinMs vie.s. "ina also emerged as a n"&lear (o.er on t5e eve of t5e C"lt"ral Revol"tion. "ina d"ring t5at orgasm of fanati&ism makes todayMs 4ran look like a normalA even sedateA &o"ntry. F.2. (oli&ymakers .ere "nderstanda-ly very "neasy a-o"t "ina Joining t5e ranks of n"&lear .ea(ons states. Ket t5ey reJe&ted t5e advi&e of t5ose inside and o"tside government .5o advo&ated military a&tion to take o"t #eiJingMs n"&lear (rogram. :iven t5e &onstr"&tive &5anges t5at 5ave taken (la&e in "ina in t5e (ast t5ree de&adesA 5istory 5as vindi&ated a (oli&y of restraint. A similar (oli&y of &a"tion and deterren&e may also (ay off .it5 4ran. 8t is not an easy or &omforta-le &o"rse to advo&ate. 8t is merely more realisti& and less dangero"s t5an t5e ot5er availa-le o(tions.

1/

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A/T 4ran 5cenario

No nu'es lots of mitigating evidence and a decreasing role for 4ran9s military 6a"l 0errA resear&5 analyst H Arms Control Asso&iationA )/$G/$%%2 ?5tt(D//....t(m&afe.&om/story/2336/1/2,/21 3* /162@
%n one 5andA 8 find it 5ard to -elieve t5at t5ese are all &oin&iden&es . 8tMs not t5at any one is all t5at damning ?for e<am(leA an e&onomi&ally ineffi&ient (roJe&t is not -y itself very &onvin&ing eviden&e of ill intent@A -"t t5ereMs a (retty long list of t5ings to e<(lain a.ay. %n t5e ot5er... T5e eviden&e t5at 8ran is &"rrently ("rs"ing "nde&lared n"&lear a&tivities isnMt all t5at good - many of t5e a&tivities dis&"ssed a-ove took (la&e some years ago ?e.g. (l"toni"m and (oloni"m e<(erimentsA t5e a&1"isition of 6-1 &entrif"ge do&"ments and &om(onentsA "rani"m im(orts@ A tra&k re&ord of "ntr"st.ort5y -e5avior gives good reason to -e s"s(i&io"sA -"t itMs not damning eviden&e of a n"&lear .ea(ons (rogram. ="rt5ermoreA .5en one looks at .5at 8ran is &"rrently doing in t5e n"&lear arenaA t5e list is not as s&ary as yo" mig5t t5ink. 8ran 5asA for e<am(leA said it .onMt re(ro&ess s(ent rea&tor f"elA it 5as given "( on laser enri&5mentA and t5e 8A0A 5asnMt fo"nd any ne. safeg"ards violations for a .5ile. 8t &o"ld .ell -e t5at 8ran 5as somet5ing to 5ide #"t t5ere are alternative e<(lanations for some of 8ranMs la(ses of &oo(eration. =or e<am(leA fail"re to t"rn over all t5e relevant do&"ments &o"ld -e t5e (rod"&t of -"rea"&rati& in&om(eten&e or rig5t 5and/left 5and iss"es. 8tMs .ort5 noting t5at 8ra1i offi&ials destroyed some 7'D and related materials .it5o"t t5e kno.ledge of 2addam H"ssein. 2naf"s like t5at .ere (artly res(onsi-le for 8ra1Ms ina-ility to a&&o"nt for some of its 7'D and related materials. Re&ent -"rea"&rati& &5anges in 8ran may give some (la"si-ility to t5e a-ove e<(lanations. >effrey already (osted a-o"t t5e -"rea"&rati& &5anges related to 8ranMs n"&lear (rogram. 8 .ill J"st add t5at a de&reasing role for 8ranMs military could mean a &o"(le of t5ingsD 1.A de&ision to end ?or at least red"&e@ n"&lear .ea(ons efforts. 2. 2ome of 8ranMs la&k of &oo(eration may -e t5e res"lt of in&om(eten&e and t"rf fig5ting .5i&5 fre1"ently a&&om(anies -"rea"&rati& s5ifts. =or e<am(leA some do&"ments may 5ave -een lostA ot5ers may 5ave -een deli-erately .it55eld -y dissenting offi&ials.

Deterrence solves 4ran

Caroline ViemkeA Resear&5 2taff 'em-er H 8DAA 33 ? he !oming !risis, ed. FtgoffA ( 113@ 8ran+s national myt5 .ill &onstrain its "se of n"&lear .ea(ons . #e&a"se it sees t5e Fnited 2tates as t5e :reat 2atan t5at o(erates .it5o"t moral &onstraints and .it5 t5e aim of destroying t5e 8slami& .ay of lifeA 8ran 5as to ass"me t5at if it "ses its n"&lear .ea(onsA t5e Fnited 2tates .ill not 5esitate to retaliate in kind. T5e 8ranians also &ontend t5at 8ranian lives are e<(enda-le in t5e F.2. vie.A as demonstrated in its fail"re to &ondemn 8ra1i gas atta&ks against 8ran. :iven t5ese ass"m(tionA 8ran almost &ertainly .ill ass"me t5at F.2. retaliation .o"ld -e far greater t5an t5e degree of damage 8ran &o"ld infli&t on t5e Fnited 2tatesA 2a"di Ara-iaA or 8srael. 2imilarlyA 8ran ?like its Ara- neig5-ors@ is a&"tely a.are of 8srael+s vast military s"(eriority and its a-ility and .illingness to ("nis5 far in e<&ess of any (ain 8ran &o"ld infli&t on 8srael. 8ran is also a.are of 8srael+s national myt5D t5at it .ill fig5t to t5e last 8sraeli to defend its rig5t to e<ist and .ill -e little &onstrained -y international san&tion or &riti&ism.

#174N8 4RAH 3OR 5 TH6 O//454O O#R56 C4TH 4RAN turns t"e 4ran add on

6eter 8al!rait"G senior di(lomati& fello. at t5e Center for Arms Control and Non-6roliferationG ///%2G Ne. Kork Revie. of #ooksG 5tt(D//....ny-ooks.&om/arti&les/1,771
7it5 t5e F2 Army vastly overe<tended in 8ra1 and 8ranMs friends in (o.er in #ag5dadA t5e 8ranians a((arently feel &onfident t5at t5e Fnited 2tates .ill take no a&tion to sto( t5em if t5ey try to make a n"&lear .ea(on. T5is is only one little-noti&ed &onse1"en&e of Ameri&aMs fail"re in 8ra1. 7e invaded 8ra1 to (rote&t o"rselves against none<istent 7'Ds and to (romote demo&ra&y. Demo&ra&y in 8ra1 -ro"g5t to (o.er 8ranMs alliesA .5o are in a (osition to ignite an "(rising against Ameri&an troo(s t5at .o"ld make t5e &"rrent (ro-lems .it5 t5e 2"nni ins"rgen&y seem insignifi&ant. 8ranA in effe&tA 5olds t5e F2 5ostage in 8ra1A and as a &onse1"en&e .e 5ave no good military or nonmilitary o(tions in dealing .it5 t5e (ro-lem of 8ranMs n"&lear fa&ilities. Fnlike t5e 1/7/ 5ostage &risisA .e did t5is to o"rselves.

23

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Nort" 0orea 5cenario

Deterrence t"reats 'ill engagement. +organ- de(t of (oliti&s and so&iety H FC 8rvineA *G ?T5e F2 and T5e T.o 4oreaA (*/@
>"st as engagement mig5t erode deterren&e &redi-ilityA deterren&e t5reats &an "ndermine engagement. T5is 5as -een a (ersistent (ro-lem for t5e Fnited 2tates in its relations .it5 t5e Nort5 ?as in its relations .it5 C5ina@. =or e<am(leA t5e negotiations t5at led to t5e Agreed =rame.ork .ere 5alted several times -y D6R4 o-Je&tions to t5e Team 2(irit e<er&iseA to F.2 s5i(ments of additional military e1"i(ment to t5e R%4A and to ste(s -y t5e Fnited 2tates to strengt5en its o.n for&es t5ere. 8n s5ortA strengt5ening deterren&e may (oison t5e relations5i( f"rt5er and t5"s make deterren&e seem even more im(ortantA &ri((ling t5e &5an&es for s"&&esses via an engagement strategy.

#5 +4/4TAR7 1R656N 6 O+1O#ND5 TH6 VO/4TA4/6 54T#AT4ON.

5"orroc'A Jo"rnalist and la-or a&tivistA =e-r"ary 9*G info&"s.org/-riefs/vol /v n2kor.5tmlQ

P"n #ocus$ %orea, 5tt(D//....foreign(oli&y-

Des(ite vast &5anges in 2eo"l and 6yongyangA &old .ar t5inking still dominates t5e F.2. a((roa&5 to 4orea. To J"stify t5e &ontin"ed (resen&e of 7A333 F.2. troo(s and t5e sale of -illions of dollars .ort5 of F.2. .ea(ons in 4oreaA t5e 6entagon 5as &onsistently overestimated t5e military t5reat from Nort5 4orea. D"ring a visit to 2eo"l in >an"ary 1//,A F.2. Defense 2e&retary 7illiam Co5en .arned t5e finan&ially stra((ed 4orean government not to delay ("r&5ases of over S1 -illion .ort5 of F.2. air&raft and .ea(ons. To do soA 5e saidA R.o"ld send t5e .rong signal and en5an&e and es&alate tension on t5e 4orean 6enins"la.R T5e standoff -et.een Nort5 and 2o"t5 is indeed dangero"sA and t5e F.2. military 5as an im(ortant role to (lay as t5e t.o sides move to.ard ra((ro&5ement. #"t Nort5 4orea is not t5e only fa&tor in F.2. (oli&yG F.2. troo(s in 4orea are also (art of 7as5ingtonMs for.ard de(loyment in Asia and t5e defense of >a(an.

21

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T +R 5cenario
+R "ig" no( no ris' of decline a draft reverses t"e trust 4aren 8utteri- Asst. 6rofessor of National 2e&"rity Affairs H Naval 6ost :rad"ate 2&5oolA $%%& ?2trategi& 8nsig5ts 'agaIineA
5tt(D//....&&&.n(s.navy.mil/(eo(le/g"ttieri.as(@ T5e relations5i( -et.een t5e military and t5e Ameri&an (eo(le 5as -een (rofo"ndly altered -y t5e events of 2e(tem-er 2331. ConsiderA for e<am(leA t5at in 1/7*A J"st after t5e end of t5e !ietnam 7arA .5en Ameri&ans aged eig5teen to t.enty-nine .ere asked 5o. m"&5 &onfiden&e t5ey 5ad in t5e (eo(le .5o ran t5e militaryA a mere t.enty (er&ent said Ra great deal.R 8n &ontrastA a 'ar&5 233 (oll of &ollege "ndergrad"ates fo"nd seventy-five (er&ent tr"sted t5e military Rall of t5e timeR or Rmost of t5e timeR to Rdo t5e rig5t t5ing.RP,Q T5is &5ange may -e d"e to a variety of fa&torsA s"&5 as t5e elimination of t5e draftA military s"&&ess in t5e first :"lf 7arA and (ositive (ortrayals of t5e military t5ro"g5 marketing and in Holly.ood films. 'ore favora-le attit"des may also refle&t rene.ed (atriotism andA sin&e .e .ere atta&ked at 5omeA a (er&e(tion t5at t5e military is .orking to avenge t5e dead and (revent anot5er //11 ?as in Afg5anistan and 8ra1@. As 6eter =eaver so elo1"ently ("t itA 5eig5tened fear gives rise to a Rmore (ersonal &onne&tion to t5e mission of t5e military.RP/Q

22

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Racism Adv. +inority/1oor not Overre,resented

Volunteer force is re,resentative aff evidence overloo's difference !et(een com!at and non-com!at Io!s Office of t"e #ndersecretary of Defense ?6ersonnel and Readiness@A $%%& ?BCons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements
and 'ilitary ReadinessC 5tt(D//....defenselink.mil/ne.s/>an233 /d233 311)avf.(df@ T5e A!= Refle&ts t5e 2o&iety it 6rote&tsE T5e :ates Commission -elieved t5at s"ffi&ient n"m-ers of 1"alified yo"t5 &o"ld -e (ers"aded to vol"nteer -y in&reasing military (ay to levels &om(etitive .it5 &ivilian earnings. 8t dis("ted &laims t5at relian&e on vol"nteers .o"ld lead to a mer&enary for&e &onsisting mainly of minoritiesA t5e (oorA and t5e "ned"&ated. Nota-lyA a Col"m-ia Fniversity st"dy re(orts t5at enlisteesA Bdo not &ome from t5e more marginal gro"(s on any of fo"r dimensionsD family so&io-e&onomi& stat"sA meas"red ver-al and 1"antitative a-ilitiesA ed"&ational a&5ievementA or .ork orientation.C 13 T5e Commission also addressed a &on&ern raised in some 1"arters a-o"t a vol"nteer for&e -e&oming Btoo -la&k.C #elieving t5ese fears .ere really "nfo"ndedA t5e Commission re&ommended t5at (oli&y makers a&&e(t .5atever (ro(ortion of minorities t5e market di&tated. TodayA -la&k re&r"its &losely (arallel t5eir re(resentation among t5e yo"t5 (o("lation ?=ig"re 2@. As .it5 all A!= re&r"itsA t5ese yo"ng men and .omen are 5ig5 s&5ool grad"ates .it5 a-oveaverage a(tit"deG t5ey are not t5e B(oor and "ned"&ated.C =ig"re de(i&ts minority re(resentation in sele&ted &areer fields. Nota-lyA #la&ks tend to -e &on&entrated in administrative and s"((ort Jo-sA not in &om-at Jo-s. T5is is in s5ar( &ontrast to t5e sit"ation in a draft for&e. #la&ks today a&&o"nt for 21 (er&ent of t5e enlisted for&eA -"t make "( only 1* (er&ent of &om-at arms ?e.g.A infantryA armorA artillery@. 8n &ontrastA #la&ks a&&o"nt for 6 (er&ent of ="n&tional 2"((ort and Administration and 27 (er&ent of 'edi&al and Dental &areer fields. #la&ks &5oose military servi&e as a via-le and often more l"&rative &areer t5an a B&ivilianC Jo-. T5e military (rovides o((ort"nities for training and ed"&ation as .ell as Jo- sta-ility and se&"rityA and most im(ortantA s"(ervisory res(onsi-ility. T5is isA after allA .5at an all vol"nteer military is a-o"t $ vol"nteers making &5oi&es t5ro"g5 de&isions to Join and remain in t5e militaryA and to sele&t &ertain o&&"(ationsA in&l"ding t5ose asso&iated .it5 &om-at or t5ose t5at (rovide skills more readily transfera-le to t5e (rivate se&tor. 8t is note.ort5y t5at &as"alty trends in Desert 2torm .ere &onsistent .it5 o&&"(ational (atterns dis(layed in =ig"re . 75ile #la&ks a&&o"nted for 2 (er&ent of military (ersonnel de(loyed to t5e :"lfA t5ey &om(rised only 17 (er&ent of t5e &om-at or non-&om-at deat5s. 75itesA .5o made "( 71 (er&ent of t5e F.2. for&es in t5e t5eater a&&o"nted for 76 (er&ent of t5e deat5s. His(ani&sA .5o .ere fo"r (er&ent of t5e for&esA a&&o"nted for fo"r (er&ent of t5e deat5sG and ot5ers $ less t5an t.o (er&ent of t5e for&e $ made "( t.o (er&ent of t5e deat5s.

Aff claims are (ay off not racist or discriminatory at all enter for +ilitary Readiness- $%%& ?5tt(D//....&mrlink.org/re&r"it.as(Ldo&8DO1,3@
T5at divisive t5eme .as e&5oed -y a n"m-er of li-eral &ommentators. Black Entertainment Television (BET) talk s5o. 5ost Tavis 2miley askedA B75at im(a&t does it 5ave on Ameri&a .5en most of t5e lives on t5e front line are lives t5at &ome from &omm"nities of &olorLC ?A#CN072.&omA >an. ,@ A&t"al fig"res &om(iled -y t5e De(artment of Defense t5oro"g5ly dis&redit t5at myt5. An 11-(age re(ort titled Cons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements and 'ilitary Readiness set fort5 doIens of 5istori& and &"rrent fa&tsA in&l"ding t5e follo.ingD Contrary to t5e &5arge t5at minorities are more likely to -e&ome &om-at &as"altiesA t5e Defense De(artment re(orted t5at in t5e A!=A 5ig5-risk &om-at for&esA s"&5 as infantryA armored and artillery "nitsA are (rimarily filled .it5 .5ite soldiers. #la&ks tend to &5oose assignments in administrative and s"((ort "nitsA in&l"ding 2 W of medi&al and dental (ositions. D"ring t5e 1//1-/2 Persian Gulf WarA -la&ks made "( 23% of t5e 550,000 F.2. troo(s de(loyedA -"t a&&o"nted for 17W of t5e &om-at and non&om-at deat5s. Contrary to t5e B"r-an legendC t5at vol"nteer soldiers are largely B(oor and "ned"&atedAC -la&k re&r"its &losely (arallel t5eir re(resentation among t5e yo"t5 (o("lationA and most are 5ig5 s&5ool grad"ates .it5 a-ove-average a(tit"de. T5e A!= is a gen"inely BdiverseC instit"tion t5at re.ards merit and refle&ts t5e so&iety it (rote&ts.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T +inorities Overre,resented

+inorities not overre,resented Iust a!out rig"t Tim 0aneA #radley =ello. 9a-or 6oli&y Center for Data Analysis Heritage =o"ndationA Novem-er 7A $%%= ?B75o #ears t5e
#"rdenAC Heritage =o"ndation Center for Data and AnalysisA 1@ RAC8A9 R06R020NTAT8%N A'%N: R0CRF8T2 7e fo"nd t5at .5ites are one of t5e most (ro(ortionally re(resented gro"(s -- making "( 77.) (er&ent of t5e (o("lation and 7*., (er&ent of all re&r"its -- .5ereas ot5er ra&ial &ategories are often re(resented in noti&ea-ly 5ig5er and lo.er (ro(ortions t5an t5e general (o("lation. T5is kind of ra&ial analysis is &om(li&ated -y t5e fa&t t5at ra&e is a self-identified attri-"te t5at is not .ell defined geneti&allyA and many &itiIens o-Je&t to ra&ial &lassifi&ationA .5i&5 &om(li&ates government efforts to &ategoriIe ra&ial and et5ni& identity &onsistently. 2(e&ifi&allyA ra&e data for t5e (o("lation in 2333 are not &om(ati-le .it5 t5e 1/// re&r"it &o5ort -"t are &om(ati-le .it5 t5e 233 &o5ort. T5e 1/// re&r"it data allo. for only one ra&e &ategory (er (ersonA .5ereas 233 re&r"it and Cens"s data follo. a system t5at -ot5 allo.s ea&5 individ"al to self-identify any &om-ination of si< ra&ial &ategories and in&l"des an inde(endent His(ani& indi&ator. T5e follo.ing analysis of ra&e is -ased on a &om(arison of t5e 233 re&r"it data and Cens"s (o("lation data for ages 1, and a-ove ?not J"st 1,-2)@. Ta-le (rovides a s"mmary of ra&ial dataA revealing t5at enlisted re&r"its are similar to t5e (o("lation .it5 a fe. s5ar( differen&es. Ta-le also in&l"des a -reako"t &om(arison of t5e 233 Army re&r"itsA sin&e t5at -ran&5 -ears a larger s5are of danger on t5e gro"nd in 8ra1 and Afg5anistan. =or e<am(leA t5e data s5o. t5atA (ro(ortionallyA -la&ks make "( ) (er&ent more of t5e Army re&r"its t5an does t5e general (o("lationA -"t t5is is not in (la&e of .5itesA .5o make "( 1 (er&ent more ?not less@. %t5er ra&ial &ategories -- nota-ly Ameri&an 8ndians/Alaskan Natives ?* (er&ent@ and Native Ha.aiian/6a&ifi& 8slanders ?2)/ (er&ent@ -are even more overre(resented. A military draft along t5e lines (ro(osed -y Re(resentative Rangel .o"ld (ress t5o"sands more Asian-Ameri&ans into servi&eA as .ell as t5o"sands of Ameri&ans .5o de&line to -e ra&ially &ategoriIed. 8n &ontrastA a draft &o"ld deny -la&ksA .5itesA and ot5ers t5e freedom to enlist in t5e Army on&e t5eir ra&ial 1"otas .ere filled. 7e ne<t &onsidered t5e R"nder(rivileged so"r&eR 5y(ot5esis. 7e kno. from earlier analysis t5at re&r"iting is not &on&entrated in (oor neig5-or5oods ?VCTAs@A -"t (er5a(s it is dis(ro(ortionately &on&entrated in -la&k neig5-or5oods. T5e 133 t5ree-digit VCTAs .it5 t5e 5ig5est &on&entration of -la&ks ?in any &om-ination of ot5er ra&es@ range from 2).3* (er&ent "( to 6,.6 (er&ent self-identified as -la&k. T5ese areas 5ave 1).6 (er&ent of t5e ad"lt (o("lation -"t are t5e origin of only 16.*, (er&ent of 1/// re&r"its and 1).3/ (er&ent of 233 re&r"its. 'oreoverA 233 re&r"its from t5ese R-la&kR areas in&l"ded an almost e1"al n"m-er of .5ite and -la&k re&r"its ?)*.7 (er&ent and )6 (er&ent of t5e totalA res(e&tively@. T5e gro"( of VCTAs .it5 t5e 5ig5est &on&entration of .5ites 5ad almost )6 times as many .5ite re&r"its as -la&k re&r"its. Among t5e VCTAs t5at 5ad t5e 5ig5est n"m-er of re&r"itsA t5e ratio .as almost )D1. 8f t5e military .ere to dra. dis(ro(ortionately from minority gro"(s -y designA one .o"ld e<(e&t fe.er .5ite re&r"its from minority-&on&entrated areas and more minority re&r"its from t5e .5ite-&on&entrated areas. T5e demogra(5i& data on ra&e reveal t5at military enlistees are notA in fa&tA more 5eavily re&r"ited from -la&k neig5-or5oods. T5e data also reveal t5at minorities serve in different (ro(ortionsA -"t not -e&a"se fe.er .5ites are serving. 8n ot5er .ordsA t5ere is no Rdis(ro(ortionate s5are of minoritiesR serving in t5e militaryA as &laimed -y editorials aro"nd t5e nation in 233 .n6 2ome minorities (arti&i(ate more 5eavily t5an ot5er minorities. Ra&e is often "sed as a (ro<y for &lassA -"t it is rarelyA if everA an a((ro(riate s"-stit"te. 0ven if t5e military 5ad a 5ig5er s5are of Afri&an-Ameri&ansA it does not follo. t5at t5ose re&r"its are (oorerA from (oorer areasA from more "r-aniIed areasA less ed"&atedA or from less ed"&ated areas. 8ndeedA none of t5ese ot5er &laims &an -e s"-stantiated.

2)

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T +inorities Overre,resented

Not on t"e frontlines Nat5aniel 3ic'- former 'arine &a(tainA >"ly 23A $%%; ?BDon+t D"m- Do.n t5e 'ilitaryAC Ne. Kork Times@
2ome s"((orters of t5e draft arg"e t5at Ameri&aMs .ars are -eing fo"g5t (rimarily -y minorities from (oor families .5o enlisted in t5e e&onomi& e1"ivalent of a Hail 'ary (ass. T5ey insist t5at t5e sa&rifi&es of &itiIens5i( -e s5ared -y all Ameri&ans. T5e sentiment is &orre&tA -"t t5e o"trage is mis(la&ed. T5ere is no &annon-fodder "nder&lass in t5e military. 8n fa&tA front-line &om-at troo(s are a near-(erfe&t refle&tion of Ameri&an male so&iety. KesA some minority men and .omen enlist for la&k of ot5er o(tionsA -"t t5ey tend to &on&entrate in s"((ort Jo-s .5ere t5ey &an learn marketa-le skills like driving tr"&ks or fi<ing JetsA not t5ro.ing grenades and setting "( interlo&king fields of ma&5ine g"n fire. Afri&an-Ameri&ansA .5o &om(rise nearly 1 (er&ent of t5e general (o("lationA are overre(resented in t5e military at more t5an 1/ (er&ent -- -"t t5ey a&&o"nt for only 13.6 (er&ent of infantry soldiersA t5e gro"( t5at s"ffers most in &om-at. His(ani&sA .5o make "( 1 . (er&ent of t5e Ameri&an (o("lationA are "nderre(resented at only 11 (er&ent of t5ose in "niform. T5e men in my infantry (latoons &ame from virt"ally every (art of t5e so&io-e&onomi& s(e&tr"m. T5ere .ere (re(-s&5ool grad"ates and first-generation immigrantsA -la&ks and .5itesA '"slims and >e.sA Demo&rats and Re("-li&ans. T5ey .ere more diverse t5an my &lass at Dartmo"t5A and far more .illing to a&t on t5eir (rin&i(les.

Re-enlistment distorts statistics =red 0a,lanA 2late &omm"nistA >"ly A $%%; ?@Don+t get &a"g5t in a draftAC C5i&ago 2"n-Times@
=or one t5ingA todayMs all-vol"nteer F.2. military is not nearly as (oor or as -la&k as it on&e .as. T5e most re&ent statisti&s from 2332 s5o. t5at 1,2A333 (eo(le enlisted in t5e F.2. military. %f t5ese re&r"itsA 16 (er&ent .ere -la&k. #y &om(arisonA -la&ks &onstit"ted 1) (er&ent of 1,-to-2)-year-olds in t5e F.2. (o("lation overall. 8n ot5er .ordsA yo"ng -la&k men and .omen are only slig5tly overre(resented among ne. enlistees. His(ani&s are "nder-re(resentedA &om(rising J"st 11 (er&ent of re&r"its &om(ared .it5 16 (er&ent of 1,-to-2)-year-olds. 9ooking at t5e military as a .5oleA not J"st at t5ose .5o signed "( in a single yearA -la&ks do re(resent a dis(ro(ortionate s5are -- 22 (er&ent of all F.2. armed for&es. #y &om(arisonA t5ey make "( 1 (er&ent of 1,-to-))-year-old &ivilians. T5e differen&e is t5at -la&ks re-enlist at a 5ig5er rate t5an .5ites. His(ani&s remain "nderre(resentedD 13 (er&ent of all armed for&es &om(ared .it5 1) (er&ent of 1,-to-))-year-old &ivilians.

2*

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T 1oor Overre,resented

+ost recruits are middle-class Tim 0ane- #radley =ello. 9a-or 6oli&y Center for Data Analysis Heritage =o"ndationA Noverm-er 7A $%%= ?B75o #ears t5e
#"rdenAC Heritage =o"ndation Center for Data and AnalysisA 1@ H%F20H%9D 8NC%'0 %= R0CRF8T2 7e fo"nd t5at re&r"its tend to &ome from middle-&lass areasA .it5 dis(ro(ortionately fe.er from lo.-in&ome areas. %verallA t5e in&ome distri-"tion of military enlistees is more similar to t5an different from t5e in&ome distri-"tion of t5e general (o("lation. 8n&ome .as &om(ared on a 5o"se5old -asisA not an individ"al -asisA meaning t5at re&r"itsM in&ome .as defined -y t5eir 5o"se5old of origin. T5is a((roa&5 .as "sed -e&a"se yo"t5 are rarely (rimary in&ome earnersA and many earn no in&ome at all "ntil after 5ig5 s&5ool grad"ation. Ho.everA t5e 5o"se5old in&ome of t5eir area of origin does serve as a -asis for assessing .5et5er t5e military re&r"its &ome from dis(ro(ortionately (oor -a&kgro"nds. '"&5 of t5e analysis in t5is (a(er ?in&l"ding t5is se&tion@ "ses five-digit Cens"s V86 &ode ta-"lation areas ?VCTAs@ as t5e "nit of analysis. T5e Cens"s #"rea" "ses VCTAs to a((ro<imate F.2. 6ostal 2ervi&e V86 &odes. 8n most &asesA VCTAs &orres(ond to (ostal V86 &odes. =or e<am(leA Re(resentative Rangel resides in t5e (ostal V86 &ode 133 7. T5e &orres(onding five-digit VCTA 133 7A s5o.n in =ig"re 1A 5as a median 5o"se5old in&ome of S 26A*61. 8n 1///A fo"r re&r"its originated from t5e areaA in 233 A t5e total .as si< re&r"its. A&&ording to t5e 2333 Cens"sA t5e national median in&ome (er 5o"se5old in 1/// .as S )1A//) in 1/// dollars. #y assigning ea&5 re&r"it t5e median 1/// 5o"se5old in&ome for 5is 5ometo.n V86 &odeA .e &al&"lated t5at t5e mean 1/// in&ome for 1/// re&r"its -efore entering t5e military .as S )1A1)1 ?in 1/// dollars@. T5e mean 1/// in&ome for 233 re&r"its .as S )2A,22 ?in 1/// dollars@. 8n ot5er .ordsA on averageA re&r"its in 233 .ere from .ealt5ier neig5-or5oods t5an .ere re&r"its in 1///. Ta-le 2 is a s"mmary of VCTA data ranked in order of (o("lation 1"intiles. 8n 1/// and 233 A t5e re&r"its generally mirror t5e (er&ent distri-"tion among t5e (o("lationA -"t t5e (attern s5o.s &learly t5at t5ere .ere fe.er re&r"its from t5e (oorest 1"intile of neig5-or5oodsn) ?1,.3 (er&ent@ and fe.er from t5e ri&5est 1"intile ?1,.6 (er&ent@ in 1///. 8n 233 A 5o.everA only 1).6 (er&ent of military re&r"its &ame from t5e (oorest 1"intileA .5ereas t5e .ealt5iest 1"intile (rovided 22.3 (er&ent. 0nlistments from .ealt5ier areas s"rgedA res"lting in a .) (er&entage (oint "(t"rn. T5e middle-&lass 1"intiles ?t5e t5ird and fo"rt5 .ealt5iest areas@ &onsistently (rovided dis(ro(ortionately 5ig5 n"m-ers of soldiers in -ot5 year gro"(s. ?2ee C5art 1.@ 2ome VCTAs 5ad 5ig5er median in&omes t5an t5e national medianA and some 5ad lo.er. C5art 2 s5o.s a (er&ent distri-"tion of 1/// re&r"its -y VCTA in&omeA revealing t5at t5e -"lk of re&r"its &ame from middle-&lass areas. =or instan&eA t5e largest (er&entage &o5ort of 1/// re&r"its ?17., (er&ent@ &ame from neig5-or5oods .it5 average 5o"se5old in&omes of S *A333 to S )3A333. !ery fe. re&r"its -- less t5an * (er&ent -- &ame from neig5-or5oods .it5 average in&omes -elo. S 23A333 (er 5o"se5old. T5e (lain fa&t is t5at t5e in&ome distri-"tion of re&r"its is nearly identi&al to t5e in&ome distri-"tion of t5e general (o("lation ages 1,-2). #e&a"se .e la&k individ"aliIed 5o"se5old in&ome dataA o"r a((roa&5 does not indi&ate .5et5er or not t5e re&r"its &ame from t5e (oorer 5o"se5olds in t5eir neig5-or5oods. Nevert5elessA C5art s5o.s t5at t5e differen&e -et.een t5e 1/// re&r"it distri-"tion of VCTA in&ome and t5e (o("lation distri-"tion is -elo. a single (er&entage (oint for 1/ of t5e 23 in&ome -ra&kets. Ket even t5ese slig5t differen&es s5o. a s"-tle (atternD 6ro(ortionallyA -ot5 (oorer and ri&5er areas (rovide slig5tly fe.er re&r"itsA and middle-in&ome areas (rovide slig5tly more. T5is eviden&e dire&tly &ontradi&ts Re(resentative RangelMs &laim t5at "nder(rivileged Ameri&ans are t5e so"r&e of military man(o.er and t5at t5e (rivileged are "nderre(resented. 8n fa&tA C5art ) s5o.s t5at every VCTA in&ome -ra&ket -elo. S )3A333 (rovided t5e same n"m-er or fe.er re&r"its after //11A .5ile all -ra&kets a-ove S )3A333 (rovided t5e same n"m-er or more.

26

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T /o(er 6ducated Overre,resented

6ducation level of recruits rising Tim 0aneA #radley =ello. 9a-or 6oli&y Center for Data Analysis Heritage =o"ndationA Noverm-er 7A 23%= ?B75o #ears t5e #"rdenAC Heritage =o"ndation Center for Data and AnalysisA 1@ 0DFCAT8%N 90!092 %= R0CRF8T2 7e find t5atA on averageA re&r"its tend to -e m"&5 more 5ig5ly ed"&ated t5an t5e general ("-li& and t5at t5is ed"&ation dis(arity in&reased after t5e .ar on terrorism -egan. Com(ara-le detailed ed"&ation data from t5e Cens"s &lassify t5e ed"&ation level of individ"als into one of seven &ategories ?from less t5an 5ig5 s&5ool "( to grad"ate/(rofessional degree@. 7e generated a -inary varia-le t5at assigns a 1 for individ"als .it5 a 5ig5 s&5ool di(loma or 5ig5er and a 3 for less t5an a 5ig5 s&5ool di(loma. 8f one single statisti& &o"ld settle t5is iss"eA it is t5isD /, (er&ent of all enlisted re&r"its .5o enter t5e military 5ave an ed"&ation level of 5ig5 s&5ool grad"ate or 5ig5erA &om(ared to t5e national average of 7* (er&ent.n* 8n an ed"&ation &onte<tA rat5er t5an attra&ting "nder(rivileged yo"ng Ameri&ansA t5e military seems to -e attra&ting a-ove-average Ameri&ans. 75at remains to e<(lore is .5et5er t5is (attern of military enlistment is ?1@ &onsistent a&ross V86 &odesA ?2@ &onsistent a&ross all -ran&5es of servi&eA and/or ? @ &onsistent (ro(ortionally a&ross all levels of ed"&ation. T5e &laim &o"ld still -e made t5at 5ig5ly ed"&ated re&r"its are -eing ("lled from "nder(rivileged areasA marked -y -elo.-average 5ig5 s&5ool grad"ation rates. ="rt5er analysis s5o.s t5at any s"&5 &laim .o"ld also -e in&orre&t. 7e "sed t5e -inary meas"re to make a V86 &ode-level &om(arison. #y &om(aring t5e re&ords of 1, A2,, individ"al re&r"its from t5e 1/// &o5ortA "sing V86 &ode of originA against ot5er Cens"s (o("lations -y V86 &odeA o"r analysis s5o.s t5at ro"g5ly 5alf ?),.* (er&ent@ of enlistees &ame from t5reedigit VCTAs .it5 a-ove-average national grad"ation rates. T5e ot5er 5alf of enlistees &ame from areas .it5 -elo.-average 5ig5 s&5ool grad"ation rates. Regardless of V86 &ode areaA .e also find t5at enlistees are almost "niversally -etter ed"&ated t5an t5e general (o("lation. 8n all -"t one of t5e ,,* t5ree-digit VCTAsA t5e grad"ation rate for 1/// re&r"its .as 5ig5er t5an t5e grad"ation rate for non-re&r"its ages 1,2). 8n 233 A re&r"its 5ad a 5ig5er grad"ation rate in every VCTA. =ig"re 2A -y "sing a gray s&ale to s5o. t5e intensity of t5e ed"&ational ga(A &learly s5o.s t5at re&r"its are often -etter ed"&ated t5an t5e general (o("lation. :iven t5e nat"re of t5e military rank str"&t"reA most enlisted re&r"its do not 5ave a &ollege ed"&ation or degree. 'em-ers of t5e armed for&es .it5 5ig5er ed"&ation are more often &ommissioned offi&ers ?i.e.A lie"tenant and a-ove@. Com(ared to t5e general (o("lationA a lo.er (er&entage of enlisted re&r"its 5ave an ed"&ational level of ) ?some &ollege/no degree@ t5ro"g5 7 ?grad"ate or (rofessional degree@A and a lo.er (er&entage of re&r"its are in t5e t.o lo.est ed"&ational levels. C5art 6 s5o.s t5e distri-"tions for ea&5 -ran&5 of t5e military and t5e general (o("lation. T5e similarity among -ran&5es stands o"tA .it5 t5e minor distin&tion t5at t5e Army 5as a slig5tly 5ig5er (er&entage ?2.7 (er&ent@ of enlisted re&r"its .it5 a -a&5elorMs degree t5an t5e ot5er -ran&5es. After 2e(tem-er 11A 2331A t5e ed"&ational 1"ality of re&r"its rose slig5tly. Com(aring 1/// enlisted re&r"its to 233 re&r"its s5o.ed an in&rease in &ollegiate e<(erien&e. 8n 233 A a 5ig5er (ro(ortion of re&r"its 5ad &ollege e<(erien&e and di(lomasA and a lo.er (er&entage 5ad only a 5ig5 s&5ool di(loma -- a s5ift of a-o"t (er&entage (oints. ="rt5ermoreA t5is fig"re is not s"-Je&t to statisti&al signifi&an&e tests -e&a"se it meas"res t5e entire re&r"it (o("lationA not J"st a sam(le of it. T5ereforeA .e &an say definitively t5at enlistee 1"ality a&t"ally in&reased -et.een 1/// and 233 . ?2ee C5art 7.@

27

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

an9t 8aurentee 6>uity

an9t guarantee e>uity at !est it (ould !e left to c"ance
=red 0a,lanA 2late &omm"nistA >"ly A $%%; ?BDon+t get &a"g5t in a draftAC C5i&ago 2"n-Times@ 7o"ld t5e net effe&t of -ringing -a&k t5e draft -e a Rmore e1"ita-le re(resentation of (eo(le making sa&rifi&esAR as Rangel ("t itL 'ay-eA may-e not. 0ven .it5 a draftA not everyone .o"ld serve. A-o"t 11 million Ameri&ans are 23 to 26 years old. T5e military doesnMt need 11 million (eo(le. A draft .o"ld 5ave to involve some sort of lottery. 7it5 t5e lotteryA t5ere s5o"ld -e no e<em(tions ?e<&e(t for t5e disa-ledA t5e mentally in&om(etentA &onvi&ted felons and (er5a(s &ons&ientio"s o-Je&tors@. 8tMs a matter of &5an&e .5et5er s"-"r-an kids .o"ld -e &alled more t5an t5e kids from t5e (roJe&ts.

2,

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

5,ending /in's /in' Draft ost

#niversal 5ervice (ould cost JB% !illion Ro-ert 0. /itan- vi&e (resident and dire&tor of t5e #rookings 0&onomi& 2t"dies 6rogramA 3all $%%$ ?#rookings Revie.A
5tt(D//....-rookings.ed"/(ress/revie./fall2332/litan.5tm@ #alan&ing t5ese fa&torsA 8 ass"me 5ere for ill"strative ("r(oses a (er (erson &ost of S23A333A .5i&5A if f"nded entirely -y t5e federal governmentA .o"ld -ring t5e total ann"al gross &ost of t5e entire (rogram to a-o"t S,3 -illion. =rom t5is fig"reA it .o"ld -e ne&essary to s"-tra&t t5e &osts of t5ose .5o already serve in AmeriCor(s and t5e 6ea&e Cor(sA as .ell as 5ig5 s&5ool st"dents .5o no. vol"nteer for t5e military. 8n additionA some (arti&i(ants in a "niversal servi&e (rogram mig5t -e (erforming f"n&tions no. &arried o"t -y (aid .orkers. Taking all t5ese offsets into a&&o"nt &o"ld -ring t5e ann"al net in&remental &ost of t5e (rogram do.n toA sayA t5e S73 -illion rangeNstill a very large n"m-er

2/

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

/in' 4ra> ost

4ra> costs !illions (e9ll s,end ourselves to deat" 'ark 6nglerG analyst for #oreign &olicy "n #ocusG 2/2 /%2G 5tt(D//....&ommondreams.org/vie.s36/322 - ).5tm
8n t5e &enter of t5e Cost%f7ar.&om 5ome (ageA an "(.ard-ra&ing ti&kerA (resented in a largeA red fontA kee(s a steady tally of t5e money s(ent for t5e F.2. .ar in 8ra1. 0very time 8 visitA it takes a moment to sort t5ro"g5 t5e &o"nterMs de&imal (la&es and make sense of it. T5e 5"ndreds of dollars fly -y too 1"i&kly to tra&k. T5e t5o"sands &5ange a little faster t5an on&e a se&ond. As 8 .riteA t5e ti&ker reads S2 /A 32A27 A1)). 8t is .ort5 staring at t5e site for a .5ile to see t5e vast s"ms a&&"m"late. Ket t5is e<er&ise in .artime a&&o"nting 1"i&kly -e&omes "nsatisfying. =irst of allA fe. Ameri&ans 5ave any frame of referen&e for eval"ating a n"m-er like S2 / -illion. T5e National 6riorities 6roJe&tA t5e organiIation 5osting t5e &o"nterA attem(ts to remedy t5is -y allo.ing visitors to &om(are .ar &osts .it5 e<(endit"res on (re-s&5oolA 5ealt5 &areA and ("-li& 5o"singA notingA for e<am(leA t5at t5is m"&5 money &o"ld (rovide -asi& imm"niIations for every &5ild -orn .orld.ide in t5e ne<t 7/ years. 0ven t5enA t5e in&om(re5ensi-ly large n"m-er ti&king a.ay on s&reen t"rns o"t to -e no meas"re at all of .5at .e .ill event"ally (ay for t5e .ar. De(ending on .5at estimate yo" "seA it &o"ld -e off -y almost a fa&tor of ten. After allA it la&ks a (la&e for t5e trillions. 2o 5o. m"&5 .ill t5e .ar &ostL T5e 1"estion o&&asionally a((ears in t5e mediaA never a ne. iss"eA never a settled one eit5er. 2tillA t5ere are some &ertainties a-o"t t5e &osts of t5e invasion and o&&"(ation of 8ra1. %ne is t5at it kee(s going "(. T5e 6resident 5as no. s"-mitted a Rg"ns over -"tterR -"dget to Congress t5at in&reases 6entagon s(ending to S))3 -illionA .5ile taking a.ay f"nds from so&ial servi&es at 5ome and develo(ment assistan&e a-road. %ne of t5e great &"riosities of t5is 5"ge s"m is t5at it does not in&l"de f"nding for t5e .ars .e are a&t"ally fig5ting. T5ose are a((ro(riated se(arately -- t5is yearA t5e 75ite Ho"se .ill re(ortedly -e asking for anot5er S123 -illion for military o(erations in 8ra1 and Afg5anistanA ro"g5ly e1"al to .5at it s(ent in 233*. Anot5er &ertainty of .artime a&&o"nting is t5at t5e &ost of t5e .ar in 8ra1 .ill remain far 5ig5er t5an t5e #"s5 administration .ants anyone to t5ink. 8tMs already stratos(5eri&ally -eyond t5e initial estimate of S*3-63 -illion "sed to sell its .ar to t5e ("-li&. T5at n"m-er .as meant to &onJ"re memories of t5e (revio"s :"lf 7ar -- %(eration Desert 2torm -- an engagement Ameri&ans re&all as s.ift and relatively (ainlessA in (art -e&a"se an array of allies 5el(ed (ay for it. T5e F.2. (onied "( only S7 -illion for t5at &onfli&t. T5e administrationMs ot5er magi& tri&k .as taking 9arry 9indseyA t5e 75ite Ho"se e&onomi& advisor .5o ("-li&ly s"ggested in late 2332 t5at a military ret"rn to 8ra1 .o"ld &ost &loser to S133-233 -illionA and making 5im disa((ear. 8n t5e years sin&e #ag5dad fellA several analysts 5ave so"g5t -etter estimates for t5e .arMs tr"e &ost. 8n A"g"st 233*A 65yllis #ennis and 0rik 9eaver at t5e 8nstit"te for 6oli&y 2t"dies iss"ed a (a(er (redi&ting t5at t5e total &ost &o"ld rea&5 S733 -illion at t5e t5en&"rrent s(ending level of S*.6 -illion (er mont5. 9ike t5e Cost%f7ar.&om tallyA t5is fig"re in&l"ded only dire&t e<(endit"res. 9ast mont5A No-el 6riIe-.inning e&onomist >ose(5 2tiglitI and HarvardMs 9inda #ilmes released a re(ort t5at took a .ider vie.. Hinting at t5e 5"man &ost of t5e o&&"(ation -- .5i&5A of &o"rseA re1"ires its o.n g5astly (age in t5e ledger of .artime a&&o"nting -t5e re(ort fa&tored in t5e government-assigned Rval"e of statisti&al lifeR for troo(s killed in &om-at. ?8t did not in&l"de t5e loss of 8ra1i lives.@ 8t tallied items s"&5 as t5e &osts of 5ealt5 &are for .o"nded veteransA in&reased re&r"itment s(ending for a 5ard-"( 6entagonA and t5e o((ort"nity &osts of more (rod"&tive ("-li& investments t5at mig5t 5ave -een made if f"nds 5ad not -een diverted overseas. =ollo.ing Congressional #"dget %ffi&e (redi&tions for troo( de(loymentA t5e re(ort &onsiders t5e (ossi-ilities of f"ll F.2. .it5dra.al -y 2313 to 231*. All toldA t5e t.o e&onomists ("t t5e &ost to t5e F.2. at -et.een S1 trillion ?t5eir most R&onservativeR estimate@ and S2.2 trillion ?t5eir RmoderateR one@.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Draft 5avings

T"e draft doesn9t save money !ecause increased costs generated !y turnover and !uilding a fig"ting force offset any savings. Bando( 9** ?Do"gA 2enior =ello. H Cato 8nstit"teA B=i<ing 75at Ain+t #rokeA T5e Rene.ed Call for Cons&ri(tionA 6oli&y Analysis
No. *1 A"g"st 1A 1///@ 'oreoverA any savings .o"ld -e offset -y in&reased &osts else.5ere. =or e<am(leA &ons&ri(ts tend to serve s5orter terms ?vol"nteers &an -e asked to serve fo"r or more years &om(ared .it5 t5e ty(i&al draft term of t.o years@ andA as noted earlierA reenlist at far lo.er rates t5an do vol"nteers. 8n&reased t"rnover .o"ld 5ike total &ostsD t5e 6entagon .o"ld 5ave to train larger n"m-ers of &ons&ri(ts and offer more genero"s reenlistment (ay and -on"ses to -"ild and retain a &areer for&e. 8n addition to t5at .o"ld -e t5e &osts of &lassifi&ationA ind"&tionA and enfor&ement. 2"&5 a national &ons&ri(tion a((arat"s .o"ld 5ave to -e even more e<tensive and dra&onian today .5en t5e &ase for t5e draftNand t5"s t5e so&ial &onsens"s -e5ind itN.o"ld -e so .eak. 8n 1/,2 t5e Reagan administration+s 'ilitary 'an(o.er Task =or&e &on&l"ded t5at a ret"rn to t5e draft .o"ld a&t"ally 5ike -"dget &osts -y a-o"t S1 -illion ann"allyD BT5e anti&i(ated &ost savingsAC stated t5e &ommissionA B.o"ld (ro-a-ly -e ill"sory.C/ 2imilar estimates of in&reased &osts from ot5er st"dies d"ring t5e mid-1/,3s ran from S1 -illion to S1.* -illion./) A re(ort -y t5e &ons"lting gro"( 2yllogisti&sA 8n&.A &on&l"ded t5at Bas a met5od of (ersonnel (ro&"rementA an a&tive for&e draft &o"ld -e 1"ite &ostly &om(ared to today+s A!=.C/*

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

6conomy DA )N 5"ell
A. #ni>ueness 6conomy #, No(

K4N56RT 6videnceL

B. /in' onscri,tion distorts t"e free mar'et leads to s"ort and long term economic decline 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ 0&onomi& t5eory (redi&ts t5at military &ons&ri(tion is asso&iated .it5 stati& ineffi&ien&ies as .ell as .it5 dynami& distortions of t5e a&&"m"lation of 5"man and (5ysi&al &a(ital. Relative to an e&onomy .it5 an all-vol"nteer for&eA o"t("t levels and gro.t5 rates are e<(e&ted to -e lo.er in &o"ntries t5at rely on military draft to re&r"it t5eir army (ersonnel . =or %0CD &o"ntriesA .e s5o. t5at military &ons&ri(tion indeed 5as a statistically significant negative im,act on e&onomi& (erforman&e. T5"sA t5e losses in individ"al lifetime earningsA .5i&5 a n"m-er of mi&roe&onometri& st"dies o-serve for former &ons&ri(tsA indeed translate into s"-stantial red"&tions in in&ome and gro.t5 on t5e ma&roe&onomi& levelA rendering military &ons&ri(tion a so&ially "nne&essarily &ostly .ay of military re&r"itment. T5e res"lt t5at military &ons&ri(tion 5as a negative im(a&t on :D6 and on its gro.t5 is ro-"st in vario"s s(e&ifi&ations . 7e meas"red t5e im(a&t of &ons&ri(tion -y a d"mmy varia-leA -y t5e la-or for&e s5are of &ons&ri(tsA and -y t5e d"ration of &ons&ri(tion or of alternative servi&e. 7it5 all t5ese varia-lesA &ons&ri(tion 5as a &onsistently negative and "s"ally statisti&ally signifi&ant effe&t. T5e varia-le military e<(enses as s"&5 even varies in sign. 75en RTD is omitted t5e military varia-les added to t5e 'anki. et al. ?1//2@ are almost al.ays of even stronger signifi&an&e at t5e 1 or * (er&ent levels. T5e &oeffi&ients are generally of similar magnit"de also in smaller sam(les .5en (otential o"tliers are e<&l"ded or t5eir effe&ts diminis5ed. To &on&l"deA at least %0CD &o"ntries .o"ld -e ill advised to rely on military draft. T5is verdi&t is strengt5ened -y re&ent resear&5 on t5e (oliti&al virt"es .5i&5 its advo&ates tend to attri-"te to military &ons&ri(tion . 2"&5 (otential advantages in&l"de t5at military draft em-eds demo&rati& &ontrols in t5e army or red"&es t5e likeli5ood of .ar. Ho.everA analyIing militariIed interstate dis("tes from 1,,6 to 1//2A C5oi and >ames ?233 @ find t5at a military man(o.er system .it5 &ons&ri(ted soldiers is asso&iated .it5 more military dis("tes t5an (rofessional or vol"ntary armies. 5 Hen&eA in addition to an in&rease in ann"al :D6 gro.t5 of -et.een a 1"arter and 5alf a (er&entage (oint .5i&5 .e find an average %0CD &o"ntry .it5 military draft foregoesA a-olis5ing &ons&ri(tion even seems to go along .it5 a (ea&e dividend.

. 4m,act is nuclear (ar

C5ris H. /e(is in 5is -ook RT5e Coming Age of 2&ar&ityR (. *6 )**G 'ost &riti&s .o"ld arg"eA (ro-a-ly &orre&tlyA t5at instead of allo.ing "nderdevelo(ed &o"ntries to .it5dra. from t5e glo-al e&onomy and "ndermine t5e e&onomies of t5e develo(ed .orldA t5e Fnited 2tatesA 0"ro(eA and >a(an and ot5ers .ill fig5t neo&olonial .ars to for&e t5ese &o"ntries to remain .it5in t5is &olla(sing glo-al e&onomy. T5ese neo&olonial .ars .ill res"lt in mass deat5A s"fferingA and even regional n"&lear .ars. 8f first .orld &o"ntries &5oose military &onfrontation and (oliti&al re(ression to maintain t5e glo-al e&onomyA t5en .e may see mass deat5 and geno&ide on a glo-al s&ale t5at .ill make t5e deat5s of 7orld 7ar 88 (ale in &om(arison. Ho.everA t5ese neo&olonial .arsA fo"g5t to maintain t5e develo(ed nationsM e&onomi& and (oliti&al 5egemonyA .ill &a"se t5e final &olla(se of o"r glo-al ind"strial &iviliIation. T5ese .ars .ill so damage t5e &om(le< e&onomi& and trading net.orks and s1"ander materialA -iologi&al and energy reso"r&es t5at t5ey .ill "ndermine t5e glo-al e&onomy and its a-ility to s"((ort t5e eart5Ms 6 to , -illion (eo(le. T5is .o"ld -e t5e .orst &ase s&enario for t5e &olla(se of glo-al &iviliIation

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

)N Huality /in'
Draft misallocates economic resources and destroys t"e #5 economy C5risto(5er .e"n- assistant se& def of for&e management and (ersonnelA $%%$
?5tt(D//....e&onli-.org/li-rary/0n&/Cons&ri(tion.5tml@ 'ost nationsA in&l"ding t5e Fnited 2tatesA 5ave "sed military drafts at vario"s times in t5eir 5istories. Regardless of oneMs vie.s on military or defense (oli&yA a draft 5as many e&onomi& as(e&ts t5at are in5erently "nfair ?and ineffi&ient@ and re("gnant to most e&onomists. Hen&eA t5e 1"estion of .5et5er to 5ave a draft is .5et5er any e<(e&ted -enefits o"t.eig5 t5ose ine1"ities. A military draft for&es (eo(le to do somet5ing t5ey .o"ld not ne&essarily &5ooseNserve in t5e military. 7it5 a draft in (la&eA t5e military &an (ay lo.er .ages t5an it .o"ld need to raise a for&e of .illing vol"nteers of t5e same siIeA skillsA and 1"ality. T5is red"&tion in (ay is (ro(erly vie.ed as a ta< on military (ersonnel. T5e amo"nt of t5e ta< is sim(ly t5e differen&e -et.een a&t"al (ay and t5e (ay ne&essary to ind"&e individ"als to serve vol"ntarily. 8fA for e<am(leA (ay .o"ld 5ave to -e S1*A333 (er year to attra&t s"ffi&ient vol"nteersA -"t t5ese vol"nteers are instead drafted at S7A333 (er yearA t5e draftees (ay a ta< of S,A333 (er year ea&5. #efore t5e draft .as a-olis5ed in t5e seventies some of its s"((orters arg"ed t5at an all-vol"nteer for&e .o"ld -e too e<(ensive -e&a"se t5e military .o"ld 5ave to (ay m"&5 5ig5er .ages to attra&t enlistees. #"t t5e draft does not really red"&e t5e &ost of national defense. 8nsteadA t5e draft s5ifts (art of t5e &ost from t5e general ("-li& to J"nior military (ersonnel ?&areer (ersonnel are not ty(i&ally drafted@. T5is ta< is es(e&ially regressiveD it falls on lo.-(aid J"nior (ersonnel .5o are least a-le to (ay. 'oreoverA t5e ta< is (aid not J"st -y drafteesA -"t also -y t5ose .5o still vol"nteer des(ite t5e lo.er (ay. 8n ot5er .ordsA it is a ta< on military servi&eA t5e very a&t of (atriotism t5at a draft is sometimes said to en&o"rage. T5e 6residentMs Commission on an All-!ol"nteer =or&e estimated t5at t5e draft ta< d"ring t5e !ietnam 7ar .as over S6 -illion (er year in 1//1 dollars. 0very time a draft 5as -een im(osedA t5e res"lt 5as -een lo.er military (ay. #"t even in t5e "nlikely event t5at military (ay is not red"&edA a draft .o"ld for&e some "n.illing (eo(le to serve in order to a&5ieve Rre(resentativenessAR or Re1"ity.R 8n re&ent yearsA for e<am(leA some 5ave advo&ated a ret"rn to &ons&ri(tion -e&a"se todayMs all-vol"nteer for&e s"((osedly 5as too fe. &ollege grad"ates or too many -la&ks. Ho. to de&ide .5i&5 of todayMs vol"nteers to t"rn a.ay is never addressed. T5e "n.illing &ons&ri(ts .5o re(la&e t5e .illing vol"nteers .o"ld -ear a ta< t5at no one -ears in an all-vol"nteer for&e. #e&a"se t5ese &ons&ri(ts do not ne&essarily (erform -etter t5an t5e vol"nteers t5ey dis(la&eA t5is ta< yields no Rreven"e.R #e&a"se t5e &ons&ri(ts are (art of so&ietyA t5e ta< t5ey (ay is sim(ly a .aste to t5e &o"ntry as a .5ole. And some .5o are 1"alified and .o"ld like to enlist are denied and for&ed into Jo-s for .5i&5 t5ey are less .ell s"ited or t5at offer less o((ort"nity. To make matters .orseA a draft also en&o"rages t5e government to mis"se reso"r&es. #e&a"se draftees and ot5er J"nior (ersonnel seem &5ea(er t5an t5ey a&t"ally areA t5e government may R-"yR more national defense t5an it s5o"ldA and .ill &ertainly "se (eo(leA es(e&ially 5ig5-skilled individ"als and J"nior (ersonnelA in greater n"m-ers t5an is effi&ient. T5is means t5at a given amo"nt of national defense is more &ostly to t5e &o"ntry t5an it need -e. 8n 1/,,A for e<am(leA t5e F.2. :eneral A&&o"nting %ffi&e ?:A%@ st"died t5e effe&ts of reinstit"ting &ons&ri(tion and &on&l"ded t5at an e1"ally effe&tive for&e "nder a draft .o"ld -e more e<(ensive t5an t5e &"rrent for&e. 7it5 a draft a larger total for&e .o"ld -e needed -e&a"se draftees serve a s5orter initial enlistment (eriod t5an todayMs vol"nteers. T5ereforeA a larger fra&tion of t5e for&e .o"ld -e involved in over5ead a&tivities s"&5 as trainingA s"(ervising less e<(erien&ed (ersonnelA and traveling to a first assignment. T5e :A% estimated t5is .o"ld add S2 -illion to S -illion (er year to t5e defense -"dget. A draft for&es some of t5e .rong (eo(le into t5e militaryN(eo(le .5o are more (rod"&tive in ot5er Jo-s or .5o 5ave a strong distaste for military servi&e. T5at 5as ot5er serio"s &onse1"en&es for t5e &o"ntryD t5e military and so&iety are -ot5 .eaker. 2o&iety is .eaker -e&a"se a draft inevita-ly &a"ses .astef"l avoidan&e -e5avior like t5e "n.anted s&5oolingA emigrationA early marriagesA and distorted &areer &5oi&es of t5e fifties and si<ties. T5e military is .eaker -e&a"se t5e (resen&e of "n.illing &ons&ri(ts in&reases t"rnover ?&ons&ri(ts reenlist at lo.er rates t5an vol"nteers@A lo.ers moraleA and &a"ses dis&i(line (ro-lems.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

/in' - osts
Volunteer force c"ea,er draft !rea's t"e !an' and tan's t"e economy Office of t"e #ndersecretary of Defense ?6ersonnel and Readiness@A $%%& ?BCons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements
and 'ilitary ReadinessC 5tt(D//....defenselink.mil/ne.s/>an233 /d233 311)avf.(df@ 'ore 0ffi&ient 8nvestmentsE T5e &ost-effe&tiveness of an A!= 5as -een reinfor&ed -y st"dies of t5e :A%A t5e (rivate se&torA and t5e De(artment. !irt"ally every revie. 5as &on&l"ded t5atA for a given level of for&e effe&tivenessA t5e A!= is less e<(ensive t5an &ons&ri(tion. T5ese &on&l"sions are driven -y t5ree fa&torsD 1. 7it5 a &ons&ri(ted for&e &omes 5ig5er (ersonnel t"rnoverA .5i&5 res"lts in s"-stantial &osts. 25orter enlistment termsA &5ara&teristi& of a draftA res"lt in 5ig5 (ersonnel t"rnover and a degradation in "nit sta-ility and (erforman&e . AlsoA 5ig5 t"rnover means more re&r"itsA and more re&r"its mean more s"(ervision and trainingG and more training means more trainers. As a res"ltA an in&reasing (ro(ortion of military reso"r&es are diverted from &ore readiness missions to s"((ort for military training. T5"sA training &osts .o"ld -e 5ig5er "nder &ons&ri(tion. Training &an -e fier&ely e<(ensive in a &ons&ri(ted for&e -e&a"se draftees .5o are assigned Jo-s re1"iring &om(le< skills need longer time for trainingA .5i&5 red"&es t5e time availa-le for (erforman&e in o(erational "nits. 2. Draftees also are less likely to reenlist. D"ring t5e !ietnam eraA only 13 (er&ent of draftees ele&ted to reenlist. #e&a"se of t5e ty(i&al (attern of individ"als to serve only one s5ort termA a &ons&ri(ted for&e m"st -e &onsidera-ly larger t5an a vol"nteer for&e. ="rt5erA o.ing to t5e (a"&ity of reenlistmentsA a draft for&e .o"ld -e yo"nger and less e<(erien&edA .5i&5 5as a &5illing effe&t on Jo- (erforman&e and (ersonnel readiness. . 7it5 a vol"nteer military &omes a more motivated for&e. Data s5o. t5at (eo(le (erform -etter if t5ey are tr"e vol"nteers t5an if t5ey are &oer&ed into military servi&e. T5e re&r"itment of vol"nteers also 5as res"lted in a 5ig5er 1"ality for&e as meas"red -y a(tit"de levels. T5is is note.ort5y -e&a"se a 5ig5 a(tit"de for&e is more easily trainedA (erforms -etterA and (resents fe.er dis&i(linary (ro-lems. 0m(iri&al eviden&e s5o.s t5at a 5ig5 1"ality and 5ig5ly motivated for&e is more (rod"&tive and less e<(ensive in t5e long r"n. ) ;"antifi&ation of &osts in order to &om(are a &ons&ri(ted for&e .it5 a vol"nteer for&e is not a trivial e<er&ise. Ho.everA analysts 5ave &on&l"ded t5atA &om(ared to an e1"ally effe&tive vol"nteer for&eA a draft .o"ld ?1@ red"&e e<(erien&e levelsA ?2@ in&rease t5e (er&entage of -ot5 non-5ig5 s&5ool grad"ates and lo.er a(tit"de individ"alsA ? @ in&rease a&&ession levelsA training loadsA and for&e siIeA and ?)@ 5ike -"dget &osts.

+ilitary draft creates "ig" costs and im,oses a conscri,tion taA #et5 Asc"A senior e&onomist at RANDA 2///$%%&
?B25o"ld Fn&le 2am 7ant Ko"LC 5tt(D//....rand.org/&ommentary/323/3 #:.5tml@ A vol"nteer for&e is also less &ostly t5an a draft for&e of t5e same siIe. A vol"nteer for&e .it5 its lo.er t"rnover rate re1"ires fe.er re(la&ementsA t5"s ena-ling t5e military to red"&e training &osts .5ile rea(ing a greater ret"rn on e<(ensive training. 8n 1/,,A t5e :eneral A&&o"nting %ffi&e &on&l"ded t5at an all-vol"nteer for&e is &5ea(er t5an a draft for&e -y more t5an S2.* -illon -- an amo"nt t5at .o"ld -e more t5an S) -illion in todayMs dollars. Cons&ri(tion makes sense .5en 5"ge n"m-ers of re&r"its are neededA relative to t5e (o("lation. #"t in t5e last t.o de&adesA military re&r"its .ereA at mostA only 1* (er&ent of t5e 1,-year-old (o("lation. Alt5o"g5 t5e (a&e of military o(erations 5as in&reasedA t5e man(o.er needed to &ond"&t a given ty(e of o(eration 5as de&lined o.ing to te&5nologi&al im(rovements. %n to( of t5isA t5e yo"t5 (o("lation is gro.ing. T5"sA t5ere is no reason t5e military .ill need a large (ortion of Ameri&an yo"t5 to serve in t5e foreseea-le f"t"re. Criti&s of a draft also say it is "nfair e&onomi&allyA for t.o reasons. =irstA it levies an im(li&it ta< on la-or -y for&ing some individ"als to serve rat5er t5an ("rs"e t5eir -etter &ivilian o((ort"nities. #e&a"se vol"nteers vie. military servi&e as t5eir -est o((ort"nityA t5ere is no im(li&it ta<. 2e&ondA it .o"ld de(rive t5ose no. serving of t5e militaryMs &om(etitive (ay and -enefits. T5e average level of F2 military (ay &"rrently e<&eeds t5e level t5at similar individ"als mig5t earn in t5e &ivilian e&onomy. T5is .as not al.ays so. 8n 1/73A t5ree years -efore t5e draft endedA entry-level military (ay .as a-o"t 5alf of &ivilian (ay. T5e F2 military 5as s5o.n over t5e (ast 3 years t5at is &a(a-le of filling its ranks -y relying solely on vol"nteers. T5e vol"nteers 5ave (erformed .ell and today make "( t5e most (o.erf"l and most effe&tive fig5ting for&e in t5e .orld. And no one is -eing for&ed into t5e military against 5is .ill.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

/in' onscri,tion TaA

Draft im,oses a conscri,tion taA !ecause draftees can9t enter "ig"er ,aying mar'et Office of t"e #ndersecretary of Defense ?6ersonnel and Readiness@A $%%& ?BCons&ri(tion T5reatens Hard-7on A&5ievements
and 'ilitary ReadinessC 5tt(D//....defenselink.mil/ne.s/>an233 /d233 311)avf.(df@ 2(e&ifi&allyA t5e :A% in a 1/,, st"dy &on&l"ded t5at t5e A!= .o"ld -e &5ea(er t5an a draft for&eA given a &onstant level of for&e effe&tiveness.5 A&&ording to t5e :A%A a vol"nteer for&e is less e<(ensive t5an a draft -y more t5an S2.* -illi on ?over S) -illion today@. #"t t5ere are ot5er &osts in (ro&"ring military man(o.er "nder a draft. %ne s"&5 &ost is t5e so&alled B&ons&ri(tion ta<AC defined as t5e earnings t5at a draftee forgoes -y -eing &ons&ri(ted into t5e military. T5is ta< &an -e s"-stantial -e&a"se t5e military &o"ld (ay draftees less t5an t5e going rate in t5e (rivate se&tor . 9ike ot5er 5idden ta<esA t5e draft does not red"&e t5e tr"e &osts of o-taining re&r"itsA it merely s5ifts t5e &ost to t5e draftees. T5"sA if t5e military (ays S13A333 to a draftee .5o &o"ld earn S1*A333 in a &ivilian Jo-A t5e draftee m"st forgo S*A333 of in&ome. 8n effe&tA t5is draftee is (aying a 5idden ta< of S*A333 for ea&5 year of servi&e.
6

75en a lo.er military entry .age is (aid to drafteesA t5e 2ervi&es .o"ld 5ave an in&entive to R5ireR too many individ"alsA instead of relying on more (rod"&tive alternatives s"&5 as t5e "se of more &areer (ersonnel or &om(lementary ne. &a(ital e1"i(ment. 75en t5at rise in a&&essions takes (la&eA t5e -"rden of national defense ?in terms of t5e la-or s"((ly .it5dra.n from t5e e&onomy@ is greater "nder a draft t5an "nder a vol"nteer for&e. Hilde-rand ("t it t5is .ayD RP#Qe&a"se military Mla-orM is E "nderval"edA t5e armed servi&es are given a false signal -y t5e (ri&e systemG t5ey are en&o"raged to "se la-or more intensively relative to &a(ital t5an is J"stified -y t5e real state of relative fa&tor endo.ments in t5e e&onomy as a .5ole. 8n &onse1"en&eA it (ays to 5oard la-orA to "se it .astef"llyA and to ado(t &a(ital-to-la-or ratios t5at are too lo.. T"rnover rates are also made too 5ig5A and t5ese add to re&r"itment &osts .5ile also lo.ering overall effi&ien&y.R

Draftees forgo o,,ortunity cost of ot"er ,ositions distorts ca,ital mar'ets and ,roductivity gro(t" tan's t"e economy 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ Already Adam 2mit5 (resented a &lear &ase against &ons&ri(tion and fo"nd an Cirresisti-le s"(eriority .5i&5 a .ell-reg"lated standing POall-vol"nteerQ army 5as over a militia PO &ons&ri(tionQC ?2mit5 1/76 P1776QA (. 731@. Also laterA most e&onomists 5ave -een favoring (rofessional soldiers over &ons&ri(ted ones. T5ey arg"e t5atA in s(ite of its lo.er -"dgetary &ost for t5e governmentA a draft system im(oses larger o((ort"nity &osts on so&iety t5an an all-vol"nteer for&e. 'ost arg"ments in t5at dis&"ssion fo&"s on stati& ineffi&ien&ies from .5i&5 a draft system s"ffers ?Hansen and 7eis-rodA 1/67G =is5erA 1/6/G 9ee and '&4enIieA 1//2G 2andler and HartleyA 1//*A C5a(ter 6G 7arner and As&5A 2331@D T5e military draft im(oses o((ort"nity &osts on &ons&ri(ts. T5ey e<&eed t5e fis&al &osts -y t5e ma<im"m amo"nt draftees are .illing to (ay to avoid &om("lsory servi&e and &an -e meas"red -y t5e differen&e -et.een (otential market in&ome and t5e lo.er (ay d"ring t5e servi&e (l"s t5e (e&"niary val"e of t5e dis"tility from 5aving to .ork in an o&&"(ation and "nder &ir&"mstan&es t5at draftees ot5er.ise .o"ld not 5ave &5osen. 9argely ignoring t5e draftees+ (rod"&tivity differen&es and &om(arative advantagesA &ons&ri(tion involves an ineffi&ient mat&5 -et.een (eo(le and Jo-s andA t5"sA an avoida-le o"t("t loss. T5e a((arent &5ea(ness of draftee la-or leads to an e<&essive (ersonnel &a(ital ratio "nder &ons&ri(tion. 25orter (eriods of trainingA la&k of e<(erien&eA 5ig5er t"rnover rates and a-sen&e of motivation and in&entives im(ly lo.er la-or (rod"&tivity for draftees t5an for (rofessional soldiers. 7it5 a lo.er sto&k of 5"man and (5ysi&al &a(italA t5e level and t5e gro.t5 rate of national in&ome in an e&onomy tend to -e lo.er t5an .it5 an all-vol"nteer for&e. 2im"lations for a &om("tational general e1"ili-ri"m e&onomy -y 9a" et al. ?233)@ demonstrate t5at t5ese long-r"n &osts of t5e draft are siIea-leD 4f t"e ("ole ,o,ulation (as su!Iect to draft ?i.e.A every-ody 5as to s(end one year for military servi&e at t5e age of 1,@A long-run 8D1 (ould !e de,ressed !y u, to one ,ercent A relative to an identi&al e&onomy t5at 5as t5e same level of military o"t("t (rod"&ed in an ?e1"ally effi&ient@ all-vol"nteer army.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

/in' Human a,ital

Draft destroys "uman ca,ital most ,roductive years of life t"ro(n a(ay to military 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ 9a" et al. ?233)@ arg"e t5at t5e draft involvesA in addition to t5e stati& ineffi&ien&iesA dynami& and long-term &osts t5at are a-sent from a (rofessional army. T5ese &osts are d"e to t5e s(e&ifi& timing and in&iden&e of t5e draft and emerge t5ro"g5 t.o &5annels. =irstA t5e military draft 5its yo"ng men andA alt5o"g5 rarelyA .omen d"ring a (eriod of t5eir lives t5at t5ey .o"ld ot5er.ise devote to t5e a&&"m"lation of 5"man &a(italD ed"&ationA st"dyingA vo&ational trainingA gat5ering first e<(erien&es on t5eir Jo-. T5e draft interr"(ts or (ost(ones t5is investment (ro&ess. 'oreoverA draftees see t5e 5"man &a(ital t5ey a&&"m"lated -efore t5e draft de(re&iating d"ring servi&e. #ot5 effe&ts im(ly a red"&tion in t5e e&onomy+s sto&k of 5"man &a(ital ?also see 2(en&er and 7oroniakA 1/6/@. 2e&ondA t5e draft as an in-kind ta< is one-sidedly levied on yo"ng (eo(le. Com(ared to BnormalC monetary ta<ation ?.5i&5 t5en &o"ldA among ot5ersA go to finan&e a (rofessional army@ t5e -"rden of t5e draft ta<A meas"red in terms of t5e (resent val"e of t5e red"&tion of ta<(ayers+ lifetime in&omesA is 5ig5er. T5e front-loaded red"&tion in lifetime in&ome dis&o"rages saving andA t5"sA &a(ital a&&"m"lationA leaving t5e (5ysi&al &a(ital sto&k in an e&onomy .it5 a military draft smaller t5an in an ot5er.ise identi&al e&onomy .it5 a (rofessional army.

Destroys economy9s la!or force "uman ca,ital goes to (aste magnified in #5 due to "ig"-education economy 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ As arg"ed -y 2tro"( and He&kelman ?2331@A t5e im(a&t of t5e military "se of an e&onomy+s la-or for&e on e&onomi& gro.t5 may -e non-linear and de(end on t5e overall 1"ality of 5"man &a(italD 7it5 5ig5er ed"&ational attainmentA t5e o((ort"nity &osts of dis(la&ing yo"ng men from t5e (rivate se&tor .orkfor&e to t5e military is 5ig5A resulting in reduced economic ,ros,erity . 7it5 lo. ed"&ational attainment of t5e yo"ng male .orkfor&eA s(ending a &ertain time in t5e military may indeed in&rease t5e 1"ality of 5"man &a(ital -y (roviding training o((ort"nitiesA e.g.A self-dis&i(lineA &omm"ni&ative skillsA or (ro-lem-solving te&5ni1"es. 2tro"( and He&kelman ?2331@ indeed find em(iri&al s"((ort for Afri&a and 9atin Ameri&a t5at recruitment to t"e military "as "ig"er and adverse effects on economic gro(t" in &o"ntries .it5 5ig5 ed"&ational standards. Ho.everA t5ey do not relate t5eir estimates to .5et5er t5e &o"ntries in 1"estion .ere r"nning (rofessional armies or "sed &ons&ri(tion.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

/in' 6con T"eory

Draft tan's t"e economy t"eory indicates 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ :iven its vol"me ?t5e draft is generally intended to &over all a-le--odied men in every &o5ort@ and its d"ration ? s(ells in t5e (ast ty(i&ally .ere .ell a-ove one and a 5alf years@A &ons&ri(tion &an -e e<(e&ted to im,act significantly on e&onomi& (erforman&e . 2imilarlyA t5e e&onomi& &osts of an all-vol"nteer for&e are signifi&ant as .ell. #ot5 systems rely on t5e government+s (o.er to ta<A eit5er -y for&ing yo"ng men andA alt5o"g5 rarelyA .omen to .ork in t5e military or -y levying monetary and general ta<es t5e (ro&eeds of .5i&5 go to (ay (rofessional soldiers. 0&onomists ro"tinely arg"e t5at a military draft is t5e more &ostly .ay for a so&iety to enlist military (ersonnel. T5e e<tra &osts of military &ons&ri(tion range from stati& dead.eig5t losses to long-term distortions in t5e a&&"m"lation of 5"man and (5ysi&al &a(ital ?see t5e ne<t se&tion for a -rief s"rvey@. #eing of t5e same nat"re as military &ons&ri(tionA t5e "se of &ons&ientio"s o-Je&tors in t5e so&ial se&tor &a"ses similar effi&ien&y losses.

Best model ,roves draft destroys economic gro(t" significantly 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ %"r analysis s"ggests t5at military &ons&ri(tion im(a&ts negatively -ot5 t5e level and t5e gro.t5 of :D6 (er .orking-age (erson in %0CD &o"ntries. Ta-les 2 to ) re(ort %92 regression res"lts for in&ome levels. 0nfor&ing t5e military draft de,resses incomeA alt5o"g5 not signifi&antly so at &onventional levels. T5e n"m-er of &ons&ri(ts and t5e lengt5 of &ons&ri(tion s(ells 5ave statisti&ally 5ig5ly signifi&ant negative im(a&ts on :D6 ?at t5e 1 or * (er&ent levels@. T5e d"ration of alternative servi&e only s5o.s statisti&al signifi&an&e .5en inflation is given ?-"t at t5e 1 (er&ent level@. Ta-les * to 7 s5o. t5e res"lts of t5e gro.t5 regressions. R"nning a draft s&5eme t"rns o"t to 5am(er gro.t5 statisti&ally signifi&antly ?at t5e 13 or * (er&ent level@. As .it5 :D6 levelsA t5e s5are of &ons&ri(ts of t5e la-or for&e and t5e time s(ent in &ons&ri(tion 5ave statisti&ally signifi&ant negative effe&ts also on e&onomi& gro.t5. T5e &oeffi&ient on t5e &ons&ri(tion s5are of t5e la-or for&e is t5e largest in -ot5 t5e in&ome and gro.t5 regressions ?-22.1*1 in Ta-le *@. AgainA t5e lengt5 of alternative servi&e only e<5i-its a statisti&ally signifi&antly negative im(a&t .5en t5e effe&t of inflation is &ontrolled for. 8f t5e n"meri&al &ons&ri(tion varia-les ?i.e.A t5e s5are of &ons&ri(ts in t5e la-or for&eA t5e d"ration of military servi&e and t5e d"ration of alternative servi&e@ .ere individ"ally de&reased -y one standard deviation ?3.33/A 3.*/1A 3.,3 res(e&tively@A it .o"ld on average for an %0CD &o"ntry in&rease t5e log differen&e gro.t5 of :D6 (er .orking-age (erson over t5e )3-year time (eriod e<(loredA 1/63-2333A -y 1/.1,*A 13.6/6 and 11./*7 (er&entA res(e&tively ?or -y 3.),A 3.27 and 3. (er&ent yearlyA res(e&tively@. T5"sA t5e s5are of &ons&ri(ts in t5e la-or for&e 5as t5e largest im(a&tA follo.ed -y t5e d"ration of t5e military servi&e and t5e alternative servi&e. T5is &onforms to t5e int"ition t5at t5e more intensely &ons&ri(tion is enfor&edA t5e less effe&tive la-or is s(ent on endeavors more (rod"&tive to t5e e&onomyA and t5e lo.er are o"t("t and its gro.t5. %-serve t5atA d"e to t5e &onsidera-le magnit"des of standard deviations in o"r sam(leA t5e aforementioned red"&tions in draftrelated varia-les .o"ldA for 1"ite a n"m-er of &o"ntries .it5 &ons&ri(tionA render t5eir draft s&5eme virt"ally meaningless. 7eA t5"sA mig5t inter(ret o"r estimates of in&reases in :D6 gro.t5 rates -y -et.een 3.27 and 3.), (er&ent as lo.er -o"nds for t5e effe&ts of a-olis5ing military &ons&ri(tion entirely.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

/in' 6m,irically
Draft 'ills t"e economy em,irics is on our side 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ Des(ite t5is &lear verdi&t -y e&onomi& t5eoryA so far not m"&5 em(iri&al eviden&e 5as -een (rovided on t5e ?ma&roe&onomi&@ inferiority of a military draftA relative to an all-vol"nteer for&e. T5is (a(er esta-lis5es s"&5 eviden&eA at least for %0CD &o"ntries in t5e (eriod -et.een 1/63 and 2333. 7e em(iri&ally test N and &onfirm N t5e 5y(ot5esis t5atA &om(ared .it5 a (rofessional armyA military &ons&ri(tion eAerts negative and lasting im,acts on aggregate out,ut and gro(t" . 7e take as o"r starting (oint gro.t5 models -y 'anki. et al. ?1//2@ and Nonneman and !an5o"dt ?1//6@

6m,irically tan's economy germany ,roves 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ !irt"ally all em(iri&al st"dies fo&"s on t5e stati& effi&ien&y losses of a draft system. T5ese losses seem to -e 1"ite siIea-leD 4erstens and 'eyermans ?1// @ estimate t5at t5e so&ial &ost of t5e ?no. a-olis5ed@ #elgian draft system amo"nted to t.i&e t5e -"dgetary &ost. 9"tI ?1//6@ revie.s several st"dies and re(orts t5at t5e ann"al o((ort"nity &ost of &ons&ri(tion in t5e :erman army is -et.een 2.2 and 6.7 -illion e"ros

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

/in' 6arning 1otential

Draft destroys earning ,otential of vets decreases la!or ,roductivity 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ T5ere is a n"m-er of st"dies on t5e im(a&t of serving in t5e military on t5e lifetime earnings of e<-soldiers. 0.g.A 8m-ens and van der 4laa". ?1//*@ o-serve s"-stantial losses of "( to * (er&ent of lifetime earnings ?&om(ared to non-&ons&ri(ts@ for D"t&5 draftees in t5e 1/,3s and early 1//3s. 0ffe&ts are even larger d"ring times of .arD in t5e early 1/,3sA t5e earnings of .5ite !ietnam 7ar veterans .ere 1* (er&ent lo.er t5an t5e earnings of &om(ara-le non-veterans ?&f. AngristA 1//3@. =or :ermanyA 4"nIe ?2332@ finds t5at &om("lsory servi&e leads to in&reases in .age in&ome for men -y .2 (er&ent d"ring t5e first year after &ons&ri(tion and de(resses .age in&ome -eyond t5e first yearA .5ere t5e ga( in .ages in&reases .it5 time. To t5e e<tent t5at earning differentials refle&t differen&es in 5"man &a(ital formationA t5is em(iri&al eviden&e t5"s &orro-orates t5at t"e military draft im,oses dynamic costs in t"e form of a lo(er la!or ,roductivity.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T +ilitary 5,ending Boosts 6conomy

No models ,rove it doesn9t 4atarina 0eller- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H 2"s1"e5anna F.A 6an" 1outvaaraA De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of Helsinki and Andreas Cagener- De(artment of 0&onomi&s H F. of !iennaA 'ar&5 $%%2 ?B'ilitary Draft and 0&onomi& :ro.t5 in %0CD
Co"ntriesCA ft(D//re(e&.iIa.org/Re60&/Dis&"ssion(a(er/d(2322.(df@ T5ere is no sign t5at military e<(endit"res per se or t5e siIe of t5e armyA relative to t5e (o("lationA statisti&ally signifi&antly im(a&t in&ome or gro.t5. T5is is in line .it5 t5e in&on&l"sive eviden&e on t5e relations5i( -et.een defen&e e<(endit"re and gro.t5 t5at emerges from similar linear gro.t5 models as t5e one em(loyed 5ere ?see D"nne et al.A 233*@. %verallA t5e a"gmented 2olo. model .it5 military varia-les and RTD e<(lains m"&5 of (er-.orking-age-(erson :D6 and its e&onomi& gro.t5 for %0CD &o"ntries .it5 adJ"sted R2s varying -et.een 71 and /3 (er&ent in in&ome regressions and -et.een ,3 and /3 (er&ent in gro.t5 regressions. T5is is generally an in&rease &om(ared to .5en t5e military varia-les are e<&l"dedA .5ere adJ"sted R2s are 3.7 ) for in&ome levels and 3.7/6 for t5e gro.t5 regressions ?4eller and 6o"tvaaraA 233*@.

)3

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

4ra> Draft/Cit"dra( 1 )N 5"ell

TeAt: T"e #nited 5tates federal government (ill esta!lis" a timeta!le for (it"dra(al from 4ra> !y t"e end of $%%B. t"e government of 4ra> s"ould esta!lis" a ,olicy su!stantially increasing t"e num!er of ,ersons serving in t"e Armed 3orces t"roug" a national draft. ). 4ra>i draft meets security needs and allo(s for a #5 ,ullout >ames Huinlivan- military analyst and senior mat5emati&ian at RANDA $%%;
?B2ele&tive 2ervi&eC 5tt(D//....rand.org/("-li&ations/randrevie./iss"es/s"mmer233)/servi&e.5tml@ T5e longer t5at F.2. troo(s remain 5eavily de(loyed in 8ra1A stret&5ing t5e limits of t5e all-vol"nteer for&eA t5e stronger ?or at least lo"der@ -e&ome t5e voi&es of t5ose .5o .ant to reinstit"te t5e F.2. military draft. T5e time 5as indeed &ome to -ring -a&k t5e draftA -"t not in t5e Fnited 2tates. T5ree reasona-le arg"ments 5ave -een made against reinstit"ting a F.2. draft to fill t5e need for troo(s in 8ra1 and Afg5anistanD T5e .ars in 8ra1 and Afg5anistan do not &onstit"te a national emergen&y at t5e level t5at s5o"ld reverse t5e F.2. &ommitment to an all-vol"nteer for&e. T5e Fnited 2tates is ri&5 eno"g5 to (ay eno"g5 to attra&t t5e re1"ired n"m-ers of (eo(le to t5e military. T5ere is no feasi-le .ay to im(ose "niversal servi&e on a large fra&tion of t5e more t5an t.o million yo"ng men ?(l"s t.o million yo"ng .omen@ .5o t"rn 1, every year in t5e Fnited 2tatesA rendering &ons&ri(tion of some small fra&tion in5erently "nfair. 8n t5e s5ort (eriod of a &ons&ri(t+s servi&eA 5e or s5e &annot -e trained to t5e level of skill re1"ired for today+s (rofessional military. Ho.ever tr"e t5ese statements may -e for t5e Fnited 2tatesA t5ey are false for 8ra1. 8n fa&tA t5e sit"ation is t5e &om(lete o((osite for 8ra1D 8ra1 fa&es a national emergen&y t5at &alls into 1"estion t5e s"rvival of t5e 8ra1i state. 9imited to its o.n reso"r&esA 8ra1 is no longer a ri&5 &o"ntry t5at &an afford to -"y its .ay o"t of (ro-lems. T5e 8ra1i militaryA (oli&eA emergen&yA and ("-li& servi&es &an "se a large fra&tion of t5e ro"g5ly 33A333 8ra1i males .5o t"rn 1, ea&5 year. As in (revio"s .arsA &o"nterins"rgen&iesA and diffi&"lt sit"ationsA 8ra1i &ons&ri(ts .o"ld 1"alify to fill t5e many military and &ivilian Jo-s t5at re1"ire &o"rageA (5ysi&al effortA and little training. T5e interim 8ra1i government is no. &onsidering &alling -a&k elements of t5e former 8ra1i army. T5e government is also "(grading t5e skills of t5e vol"nteer 8ra1i for&es t5at .ere .illing to enlist in t5e for&es formed -y t5e Coalition 6rovisional A"t5ority. Ho.everA t5e need for man(o.er &ontin"es to gro.. As t5e reg"lar 8ra1i for&es im(rove t5eir o.n (erforman&eA t5ey also in&rease t5eir a-ility to add lesser-skilled a"<iliaries for more ro"tine tasks. 2ooner or laterA eit5er t5e interim government or its (ost-ele&tion s"&&essor .ill 5ave to &onsider reintrod"&ing t5e &ons&ri(tion t5at .as a nearly "niversal feat"re of 8ra1i life for de&ades -efore t5e F.2. and allied o&&"(ation.

$. Timeta!le for ,ullout !oost 4ra>i legitimacy and training

N6C 7OR0 T4+65D $/$G/%2D N4 HO/A5 0R45TO3 ?O1-6D CR4T6R M 1#/4TN6R C4NN4N8 R61ORT6RE
#"t .5ile .e s5o"ldnMt r"s5 for t5e e<its immediatelyA .e s5o"ld lay o"t a timeta-le for .it5dra.al t5at .o"ld remove all troo(s -y t5e end of ne<t year. And .e s5o"ld state &learly t5at .e .ill not kee( any military -ases in 8ra1 -- t5atMs a no--rainerA for it &osts "s not5ingA -"t o"r 5edging on -ases antagoniIes 8ra1i nationalists and res"lts in more dead Ameri&ans. 2"&5 a timeta-le .o"ld for&e 8ra1is to (re(are -- (oliti&ally and militarily -- to r"n t5eir o.n &o"ntry. T5e year or t.o of transition .o"ld galvaniIe 8ra1i 25iites to find a mod"s vivendi .it5 2"nnis .5ile "ndermining t5e ins"rgentsM arg"ments t5at t5ey are nationalists (rote&ting t5e mot5erland from Kankee &r"saders. Tr"eA a timeta-le is ar-itrary and riskyA for it &o"ld J"st en&o"rage ins"rgents to 5ang tig5t for anot5er &o"(le of years. #"t .eMre -eing killed -- literally -- -e&a"se of nationalist s"s(i&ions among 8ra1is t5at .eMre J"st after t5eir oil and -ases and t5at .eMre going to stay forever. 8tMs &r"&ial t5at .e defuse t5at nationalist rage. =or no.A .eMve -e&ome t5e (inata of 8ra1i (oliti&sA somet5ing for 8ra1i demagog"es to -as5 to -oost t5eir o.n legitima&y. 'oktada al-2adrA one of t5e s&ariest 8ra1i leadersA 5as very s5re.dly "sed 5is den"n&iations of t5e F.2. to -oost 5is o.n (oliti&al follo.ing and infl"en&e a&ross 8ra1G t5atMs o"r gift to 5imA a &onse1"en&e of o"r myo(ia. And many ordinary 8ra1is are -"ying into t5is s&a(egoating of t5e F.2. 0d.ard 7ongA one of my intre(id Times &olleag"es in #ag5dadA 1"oted a &lot5ing mer&5ant named A-d"l-;ader Ali as sayingD MM8 &an tell yo" t5e main reason -e5ind all o"r .oes -- it is Ameri&a. 0veryt5ing t5at is going on -et.een 2"nnis and 25iitesA t5e tro"-lemaker in t5e middle is Ameri&a.MM

)1

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

A/T Not Ready

1 5olves 4ra>is can learn t"e s'ills necessary
>ames Huinlivan- military analyst and senior mat5emati&ian at RANDA $%%; ?B2ele&tive 2ervi&eC 5tt(D//....rand.org/("-li&ations/randrevie./iss"es/s"mmer233)/servi&e.5tml@ T5ese yo"ng men are &ertainly &a(a-le of learning t5e sim(le skills needed to 5el( -ring se&"rity to 8ra1. Not m"&5 training .o"ld -e re1"ired for many la-oring Jo-sA and ot5er military and (oli&e skills .o"ld -e .it5in t5e tea&5ing a-ility of t5e im(roved 8ra1i for&es. 'ore &om(li&ated skills asso&iated .it5 &ons&ri(t gendarmerieA .it5 &onsta-"lary for&esA or .it5 reserve (oli&e mig5t -e ta"g5t -y many of o"r NAT% allies t5at 5ave s"&5 for&esA in&l"ding t5e #ritis5A t5e D"t&5A t5e =ren&5A and t5e 2(anis5. As .it5 &ons&ri(ts every.5ereA s"&5 servi&e .o"ld -e not only a test of t5eir mettle -"t (ossi-ly also a (5ysi&al o"tlet for t5eir nationalism. 'oreoverA every &ons&ri(t (rod"&tively em(loyed in t5e servi&e of 5is &o"ntry is not readily availa-le to t5e ins"rgent militias or to t5e violent &ro.ds of "nem(loyed yo"t5s t5at &an er"(t aro"nd any street in&ident. A-sol"te loyalty to t5e regime .o"ld not -e re1"ired for t5e &ons&ri(ts to &ontri-"te to an im(roved se&"rity sit"ation. As t5e "ltimate test of a ne. nationA t5ere is no s"-stit"te for its o.n (eo(le taking on t5e -"rdens of its defense. T5e 8ra1i &onfli&t 5as moved into a stage in .5i&5 it is no longer a &onfli&t for t5e Ameri&ans to .in. %nly t5e 8ra1is t5emselves &an .in t5is &o"nterins"rgen&y.

#5 ,resence dam,ens 4ra>i security force effectiveness timeta!le solves Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
Des(ite t5ese fail"resA t5ere remains .ides(read &onsens"s t5at t5e stat"s of 8ra1i se&"rity for&es is t5e key fa&tor in 8ra1+s a-ility to govern itself. Fnfort"natelyA t5e o&&"(ation itself 5as 5ad some adverse effe&ts on t5e se&"rity training (rogram. !isi-le &oo(eration .it5 F.2. for&es 5as made t5e 8ra1i se&"rity for&es targets for ins"rgents. 2&ores of se&"rity for&es and trainees 5ave -een killed in &ar -om-ingsA drive--y s5ootingsA kidna((ingsA and e<e&"tions. Conse1"entlyA "ntold n"m-ers of (otential re&r"its 5ave -een deterred from Joining. 8n additionA t5e (resen&e of F.2. for&es red"&es t5e 8ra1i se&"rity for&es+ .illingness to risk t5eir lives to fig5t ins"rgents. 7it5 -etter-trained and -etter-e1"i((ed F.2. for&es fig5ting alongside t5emA 8ra1i for&es are (res"ma-ly less likely to Join t5e fig5t. A&&ording to t5e 8nternational Crisis :ro"(A t5e se&"rity for&es s"ffer from Bam-ivalen&e to.ard t5e o&&"(ation for&es and t5e (oliti&al transition as .ell as t5e a-sen&e of &redi-le military and (oliti&al instit"tions to .5i&5 t5eir loyalty &an -e dire&ted.C <Pl<vQ Anno"n&ing a timeta-le for a F.2. .it5dra.al may give 8ra1i se&"rity for&es rene.ed allegian&e to t5e fledgling 8ra1i government and greater reason to ass"me res(onsi-ilities for defending it. 8n t5e .ords of 6resident #"s5A MM"ltimately t5e s"&&ess in 8ra1 is going to -e t5e .illingness of t5e 8ra1i &itiIens to fig5t for t5eir o.n freedom.R T5e Fnited 2tates s5o"ld e<(edite t5e training of se&"rity for&es -y devoting additional reso"r&es and seeking greater &ommitments of trainers from ot5er nationsA in&l"ding NAT% and neig5-oring '"slim &o"ntries. 6riority s5o"ld -e given to training t5e for&es to meet 8ra1+s most (ressing needsA namely a (oli&e for&e t5at in&l"des a &o"nterterrorist Bs(e&ial "nit.C

)2

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Timeta!le 5olves 4ra> 5ecurity

Timeta!le s,urs 4ra>i action and solves Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
T5e &"rrent F.2. (oli&y in 8ra1 is 5"rting t5e glo-al .ar on terror. T5e .ar &ontin"es to e<(end finite reso"r&esA erode military readinessA strain long-standing allian&esA and inflame t5e '"slim .orld. 8t does not 5ave to -e t5is .ay. #y anno"n&ing a s&5ed"le for .it5dra.alA t5e F.2. sends a message to 8ra1is and all &itiIens of t5e .orld t5at .e -elieve 8ra1 is &a(a-le of making de&isions a-o"t its f"t"re and &ontrolling its reso"r&es. 7e de&lare o"r disinterest in "sing 8ra1 as a (ermanent (latform for regional dominan&e. T5ere is great (romise for .5at 6resident #"s5 5as &alled a Bfor.ard strategy of freedomC if t5e Fnited 2tates &ommits to f"ll di(lomati& engagement in t5e 'iddle 0ast.<iPl<<viQ As (art of its effort to dra. do.n for&es in 8ra1A t5e F.2. m"st remain engaged di(lomati&ally in t5e region $ (arti&"larly in demonstrating its sin&erity in .orking to.ards a resol"tion in t5e 8sraeli-6alestinian &onfli&t. T5ro"g5 savvy di(loma&yA t5e re&onstr"&tion of 8ra1 is an o((ort"nity for maJor advan&es in Ameri&an relations .it5 t5e rest of t5e 'iddle 0ast. %ne immediate o((ort"nity is in regional di(lomati& &onta&t .it5 8ra1+s neig5-orsA similar to t5e #osnian 6ea&e 8m(lementation Co"n&il. =or long-term s"&&essA t5e Fnited 2tates m"st redefine its goals in 8ra1 in terms t5at are meaningf"l not J"st to 8ra1is -"t to '"slims in general. Ameri&an r5etori& a-o"t t5e .ar on terrorism and demo&ratiIation are meaningless to t5ese a"dien&es "nless eviden&ed -y sta-ility and meaningf"l sovereignty in 8ra1. T5e 1"estions of 8ra1+s f"t"re m"st -e ans.ered -y 8ra1isA .it5 t5e s"((ort of t5e international &omm"nity and red"&ed relian&e on t5e Fnited 2tates. 6rolonged military o&&"(ation .ill not end t5e ins"rgen&y nor .ill it se&"re F.2. interests. 8t .ill only -ring more &as"alties. T5e Fnited 2tates m"st notA 5o.everA ("ll o"t s"ddenly and allo. terrorists to seek 5aven amid t5e ens"ing &5aos. T5e Fnited 2tates m"stA insteadA maintain a role in moving 8ra1 to.ards self-governan&e .5ile at t5e same time making &lear its (lans to leave 8ra1 over t5e ne<t 12-1, mont5s. T5e Fnited 2tates military o&&"(ation m"st -e transformed into an 8ra1i (ea&ekee(ing mission. T5at means anno"n&ing (lans to -ring t5e vast maJority of o"r troo(s 5ome as (art of a more &om(re5ensive (lan to &om(lete t5e training 8ra1i se&"rity for&es and invest in t5e e&onomi& re&onstr"&tion in 8ra1. T5e Fnited 2tates &an &redi-ly de&lare vi&tory for removing 2addam H"ssein and transitioning 8ra1 to formal sovereignty. As t5e 8ra1i (eo(le take t5e ne<t ste( to.ards ass"ming real o.ners5i( of t5eir &o"ntryA t5ey .ant an end to t5e military o&&"(ation t5at &ontrols t5eir streets and many as(e&ts of t5eir daily lives. T5e Fnited 2tates serves its o.n -est interests -y 5onoring t5ose e<(ressions of inde(enden&e and free .ill.

4nsurgency (ill crum!le (it"dra( (ins 4ra>i su,,ort Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
T5e anno"n&ement of a timeta-le for a F.2. .it5dra.al .ill transform t5e sit"ation in 8ra1. T5e (oliti&s and reality on t5e gro"nd for every (arty in 8ra1 .ill &5ange. 'oreoverA as .e (re(are to s(ell o"t t5e terms of o"r .it5dra.alA .e gain leverage .it5 all .5o mig5t gain or lose gro"nd -ased on t5ose terms. T5ere are limits to t5is leverageD for e<am(leA t5e Fnited 2tates &annot &redi-ly t5reaten to B&"t and r"nC immediately. Nor &an .e (romise all t5ings to all (eo(le. 7e &anA 5o.everA make arrangements t5at in&rease t5e likeli5ood t5at vario"s fa&tions .ill agree to (arti&i(ate in a (ea&ef"l (oliti&al (ro&ess in 8ra1. Anno"n&ing a timeta-le for dra.ing do.n troo( strengt5 .o"ldD 'elp win the support of the "ra(i people for the political process and against the insurgency 2etting a timeta-le for .it5dra.al .o"ld &larify t5at t5e Fnited 2tates 5as no long-term desire to o&&"(y 8ra1 or &ontrol its reso"r&es. T5is .o"ld strengt5en t5e legitima&y of t5e 8ra1i government (rod"&ed -y t5e >an"ary 3 ele&tions. 8t .o"ld also 5el( -egin to red"&e t5e 8ra1i (o("lation+s distr"st of Coalition for&es. T5ere are t.o -asi& &o"nterins"rgen&y ta&ti&sD assa"lt and (a&ifi&ation. T5e Fnited 2tates 5as &5osen t5e assa"lt ro"te $ to seek o"t ins"rgentsA Join t5em in -attleA and .in. T5is .as t5e (rimary a((roa&5 in =all"Ja5. T5e se&ond a((roa&5A (a&ifi&ationA &5anges t5e em(5asis to .inning t5e s"((ort of t5e (o("lation and t5ere-y slo.ing t5e gro.t5 and de&reasing t5e s"((ort of t5e ins"rgen&y.

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Cit"dra( 3ractures 4nsurgency

Cit"dra( (ea'ens t"e insurgency no common enemy means 4ra>i forces can mo, u, Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
2e&retary R"msfeld+s anno"n&ement of a revie. of 8ra1 (oli&y is a ste( in t5e rig5t dire&tion. RealiIing t5at t5e ta&ti&al vi&tory in =all"Ja5 did not 5ave t5e intended im(a&tA t5e #"s5 Administration a((ears to 5ave s5ifted t5e em(5asis from defeating t5e ins"rgen&y in &onventional -attle to B8ra1ifyingC se&"rity for&es and ("tting a ne. em(5asis on training. Wea)en or splinter the insurgency Red"&ing t5e F.2. (resen&eA or even anno"n&ing intentions to do soA may 5el( de(rive t5e ins"rgen&y of its s"((ort among t5e (o("lation. T5e indefinite lengt5 of t5e F.2. o&&"(ation 5as served to "nite violent fa&tions .it5in 8ra1. 7it5o"t a nationalistA antiAmeri&an -annerA t5e loosely allied ins"rgent fa&tions .o"ld likely -egin to s(linter over t5eir o.n s"-stantial internal differen&es. %ne e<(ert .rites t5at Bt5e only fa&tor t5at "nites '"slim f"ndamentalist m"Ja5ideenA se&"lar #aat5ist 5oldo"tsA and 25iite e<tremists is t5eir desire to e<(el Ameri&an for&esE.8f t5at rallying &a"se &an -e .eakened -y diminis5ing 7as5ington+s involvementA t5e 8ra1i government s5o"ld -e a-le to (lay on divisions among t5e re-elsA steering some of t5em a.ay from violen&e and to.ard t5e (oliti&al mainstreamA .5ile marginaliIing and dividing t5e rest.C <iiP<lviiiQ Anot5er e<(ert arg"es t5at B-e&a"se 8ra1 is "nder foreign o&&"(ationA 8slami&A nationalistA and (an-Ara- sentiments &"rrently (revail over denominational identitiesA ind"&ing 2"nni and 25iite Ara-s to "nite against t5eir invaders.C <iiiP<li<Q As t5e F.2. (resen&e re&edesA its "nintended tenden&y to mo-iliIe and "nify t5e ins"rgen&y diminis5es.

))

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Cit"dra( 5olves 5oft,o(er

Cit"dra( increases #5 soft,o(er !oosts "egemony Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
0n5an&e t5e F.2.+s legitima&y a-road #y anno"n&ing a timeta-le for t5e dra.do.n of F.2. for&esA .e -egin to reverse t5e .ides(read (er&e(tion t5at t5e invasion of 8ra1 .as motivated -y im(erial designs. 75ile it is "nlikely t5at ne. nations .o"ld send signifi&ant n"m-ers of troo(s at t5is late dateA ne.fo"nd legitima&y &o"ld give foreign leaders t5e (oliti&al lee.ay to send "nits to (erform s(e&ialiIed f"n&tions s"&5 as training 8ra1i se&"rity for&es. At t5e very leastA it .o"ld (rovide a fres5 o((ort"nity to engage t5e international &omm"nity in di(loma&y and re&onstr"&tion going for.ard. #eginning t5e (ro&ess of 5ealing divisions over 8ra1 .o"ld ena-le en5an&ed &oo(eration in ot5er as(e&ts of t5e .ar on terror.

)*

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Cit"dra( 5olves Readiness

Cit"dra( relieves strain on t"e military solves t"e readiness adv. Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
=ind Blig5t at t5e end of t5e t"nnelC for F.2. for&es and ta<(ayersD T5e o&&"(ation in 8ra1 5as overstret&5ed t5e military and finan&ially -"rdened Ameri&an ta<(ayers to a far greater e<tent t5an Administration offi&ials (redi&ted. 8n 'ar&5 233 A De("ty Defense 2e&retary 6a"l 7olfo.itI asserted t5at 8ra1 B&an really finan&e its o.n re&onstr"&tion and relatively soon.C T.o years laterA t5e Fnited 2tates 5as s(ent a total of S1*2 -illion on military o(erations in 8ra1 and &ontin"es to s(end a-o"t S)., -illion ea&5 mont5.<ivPliiQ Congress is a.aiting a re1"est from t5e #"s5 Administration for S,3-133 -illion in ne. s"((lemental f"nds.<vPliiiQ As late as 'ay of 233 A t5e #"s5 Administration .as anno"n&ing (lans to red"&e t5e F.2. (resen&e to 3A333 troo(s or fe.er -y t5e =all of t5at year.<viPlivQ #"t .it5 five times t5at n"m-er remaining in 8ra1 nearly t.o years laterA t5e military 5as -een stret&5ed dangero"sly t5in. All of t5e ArmyMs a&tive-d"ty &om-at -rigades .ere de(loyed to 8ra1 or Afg5anistan in 233 or 233) $ and a ll .ill 5ave to go -a&k again. T5e strain 5as -een (arti&"larly severe on t5e Reserve Com(onent .5i&5 &om(rises )2-) W of o"r for&es in 8ra1 .<viiPlvQ %n De&em-er 23A t5e Army Reserve C5ief :eneral 9ie"tenant :eneral >ames R. Helmly .rote an alarming letter to t5e Army C5ief of 2taff asserting t5at t5e Army Reserve is Bra(idly degenerating into a X-roken+ for&eC "na-le to BEregenerate its for&es for follo.-on and f"t"re missions.C<viiiPlviQ 9ie"tenant :eneral Helmly estimated t5at only 7A333 of t5e 237A333 reserve soldiers are &"rrently de(loya-le. T5e e<tended de(loyments and t5e Administration+s "se of Bsto(-lossC (oli&ies to (revent (ersonnel from leaving t5e servi&es risk a re&r"iting and retention &risis. T5e Army Reserve fell 13W s5ort of its re&ent re&r"iting goalsA .5ile t5e National :"ard fell 3W s5ort.<i<PlviiQ 75en t5e 6entagon a&tivated more t5an )A333 mem-ers of t5e 8ndivid"al Ready Reserve 1A,33 resisted and one-t5ird of t5ose d"e to re(ort for training did not s5o. "( on time. <<PlviiiQ 2ervi&emem-ers and t5eir families are -earing intense (ersonal -"rdens as a res"lt of t5e .arA in&l"ding marital strainsA finan&ial tro"-lesA and (sy&5iatri& disorders as a res"lt of &om-at. <<iPli<Q Anno"n&ing a timeta-le for .it5dra.al .ill (rote&t ta<(ayersA re lieve strains on t"e military- forestall a recruiting and retention crisis- and give soldiers and t5eir families a &learer sense of .5en t5ey .ill -e re"nited.

Cit"dra( relieves t"e strain no( is t"e 'ey time BB Ne(s- 1/26/$%%2 ?5tt(D//ne.s.--&.&o."k/2/5i/ameri&as/)6)/366.stm@
T5e F2 military 5as -e&ome dangero"sly overstret&5ed -e&a"se of t5e s&ale of its o(erations in 8ra1 and Afg5anistanA t.o re(orts 5ave .arned. %neA -y former offi&ials in t5e Clinton administrationA said t5e (ress"re of re(eated de(loyments .as very &orrosive and &o"ld 5ave long-term effe&ts. T5e se&ondA ordered -y t5e 6entagon and yet to -e releasedA re(ortedly &alls t5e army Rstret&5ed to -reaking (ointR. T5e F2 defen&e se&retary dismissed t5e &laims as o"t of date or misdire&ted. A-o"t 1 ,A333 F2 troo(s remain in 8ra1A on to( of de(loyments to Afg5anistan and 4osovo. M0normo"s strainM T5e first st"dyA &ommissioned -y Demo&rati& mem-ers of CongressA listed former Defen&e 2e&retary 7illiam 6erry and former 2e&retary of 2tate 'adeleine Al-rig5t among its a"t5ors. 8t said t5e F2 military 5ad (erformed admira-ly in re&ent o(erations -"t .as "nder Renormo"s strainR. T5is strainA if not soon relievedA .ill 5ave 5ig5ly &orrosive and (otentially long-term effe&ts on t5e for&eAR it stated. T5e re(ort (redi&ted (ro-lems re&r"iting ne. troo(s and retaining &"rrent ones in t5e fa&e of re(eated overseas to"rs and s5ortfalls in vital e1"i(ment.

)6

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Cit"dra( 5olves Demo 1romo

Cit"dra( from ira> solves Demo 1romo Re,. 'artin +ee"an- $%%=?5tt(D//....5o"se.gov/mee5an/ira1.5ite(a(er.5tm@
T5e Fnited 2tates serves its o.n interests -y 5onoring t5e 8ra1i (eo(le+s desire for (ea&e and inde(enden&e. #y &aref"lly dra.ing do.n troo( levelsA t5e Fnited 2tates demonstrates o"r &ommitment to (o("lar sovereignty and demo&ra&y in t5e '"slim .orld. T5e &"rrent F.2. (oli&y in 8ra1 is 5"rting t5e glo-al .ar on terror. T5e .ar &ontin"es to e<(end finite reso"r&esA erode military readinessA strain long-standing allian&esA and inflame t5e '"slim .orld. 8t does not 5ave to -e t5is .ay. #y anno"n&ing a s&5ed"le for .it5dra.alA t5e F.2. sends a message to 8ra1is and all &itiIens of t5e .orld t5at .e -elieve 8ra1 is &a(a-le of making de&isions a-o"t its f"t"re and &ontrolling its reso"r&es. 7e de&lare o"r disinterest in "sing 8ra1 as a (ermanent (latform for regional dominan&e. T5ere is great (romise for .5at 6resident #"s5 5as &alled a Bfor.ard strategy of freedom C if t5e Fnited 2tates &ommits to f"ll di(lomati& engagement in t5e 'iddle 0ast. <<iiPl<<viQ As (art of its effort to dra. do.n for&es in 8ra1A t5e F.2. m"st remain engaged di(lomati&ally in t5e region $ (arti&"larly in demonstrating its sin&erity in .orking to.ards a resol"tion in t5e 8sraeli-6alestinian &onfli&t. T5ro"g5 savvy di(loma&yA t5e re&onstr"&tion of 8ra1 is an o((ort"nity for maJor advan&es in Ameri&an relations .it5 t5e rest of t5e 'iddle 0ast. %ne immediate o((ort"nity is in regional di(lomati& &onta&t .it5 8ra1+s neig5-orsA similar to t5e #osnian 6ea&e 8m(lementation Co"n&il. =or long-term s"&&essA t5e Fnited 2tates m"st redefine its goals in 8ra1 in terms t5at are meaningf"l not J"st to 8ra1is -"t to '"slims in general. Ameri&an r5etori& a-o"t t5e .ar on terrorism and demo&ratiIation are meaningless to t5ese a"dien&es "nless eviden&ed -y sta-ility and meaningf"l sovereignty in 8ra1. T5e 1"estions of 8ra1+s f"t"re m"st -e ans.ered -y 8ra1isA .it5 t5e s"((ort of t5e international &omm"nity and red"&ed relian&e on t5e Fnited 2tates. 6rolonged military o&&"(ation .ill not end t5e ins"rgen&y nor .ill it se&"re F.2. interests. 8t .ill only -ring more &as"alties. T5e Fnited 2tates m"st notA 5o.everA ("ll o"t s"ddenly and allo. terrorists to seek 5aven amid t5e ens"ing &5aos. T5e Fnited 2tates m"stA insteadA maintain a role in moving 8ra1 to.ards self-governan&e .5ile at t5e same time making &lear its (lans to leave 8ra1 over t5e ne<t 12-1, mont5s. T5e Fnited 2tates military o&&"(ation m"st -e transformed into an 8ra1i (ea&ekee(ing mission. T5at means anno"n&ing (lans to -ring t5e vast maJority of o"r troo(s 5ome as (art of a more &om(re5ensive (lan to &om(lete t5e training 8ra1i se&"rity for&es and invest in t5e e&onomi& re&onstr"&tion in 8ra1. T5e Fnited 2tates &an &redi-ly de&lare vi&tory for removing 2addam H"ssein and transitioning 8ra1 to formal sovereignty. As t5e 8ra1i (eo(le take t5e ne<t ste( to.ards ass"ming real o.ners5i( of t5eir &o"ntryA t5ey .ant an end to t5e military o&&"(ation t5at &ontrols t5eir streets and many as(e&ts of t5eir daily lives. T5e Fnited 2tates serves its o.n -est interests -y 5onoring t5ose e<(ressions of inde(enden&e and free .ill.

)7

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Draft 5olvency 8eneral 5ecurity

4ra>i draftees can fill general security ,ositions >ames Huinlivan- military analyst and senior mat5emati&ian at RANDA $%%;
?B2ele&tive 2ervi&eC 5tt(D//....rand.org/("-li&ations/randrevie./iss"es/s"mmer233)/servi&e.5tml@ 7ort5 t5e Risk 8t is no. &lear t5at 8ra1 fa&es an ins"rgen&y t5at gen"inely t5reatens t5e 8ra1i state. T5e interim government fa&es 8ra1i ins"rgents .5o 5ave some (o("lar s"((ort and a &ontin"ing a-ility to t5.art international re&onstr"&tion efforts. To &o"nter t5e ins"rgent t5reatA t5e ne. government 5as (ro&laimed t5at its most im(ortant d"ty is to (rovide se&"rity for t5e 8ra1i (eo(le. T5e government m"st also demonstrate t5at it is t5e "ltimate g"arantor of t5e (eo(le+s rig5ts and .elfare. 8n ret"rnA t5e "ltimate test of t5e legitima&y of any 8ra1i state is .5et5er its &itiIens .ill defend it .it5 t5eir o.n lives. 6roviding se&"rity is a man(o.er-5"ngry a&tivity t5at &an re1"ire many more (eo(le t5an are re1"ired -y t5e a&t"al -attles .it5 ins"rgents . Reintrod"&ing &ons&ri(tion mig5t alienate some fa&tions or regions .it5in 8ra1A (er5a(s s(arking defian&eA -"t taking t5e (oliti&al risk mig5t -e t5e only .ay to ens"re t5e (oliti&al integrity of t5e state. 2e&"rity re1"ires t5e (rote&tion of t5e (eo(le as t5ey move t5ro"g5 t5eir daily livesG it re1"ires &5e&k(oints to s&reen &ars for -om-sG and it re1"ires g"ards .5o &ontrol a&&ess to marketsA s&5oolsA neig5-or5oodsA and t5e &5ildren .5o move -et.een t5em. =or t5e ordinary &itiIenA a sense of se&"rity m"st in&l"de (rote&tion from &ommon &rime as .ell as from (oliti&ally motivated terrorism. T5e first re1"irement is sim(ly to add more g"ards and &5e&k(oints. T5at is a -ig (art of t5e sol"tion. Hig5ly visi-le se&"rity 5alts some atta&ksA deters ot5ersA removes some o((onentsA and reass"res many &itiIens. T5e skills re1"ired for t5ese Jo-s are t5e sim(lest of military and (oli&e skills. #"t t5e -enefits of sim(le skills a((lied to &ommon(la&e tasks and "niversally a&&e(ted servi&es s5o"ld not -e "nderestimatedD 8m(rovised e<(losive devi&es &annot -e 5idden in tras5 near roads if mem-ers of a la-or for&e &olle&t t5e tras5 along t5e roadside every morning.

4ra>i forces are ready to ta'e over

9a.ren&e 0a,lanG 2enior 0ditor at T5e Ne. Re("-li&G /6/%2G T5e Ne. Re("-li&
8ra1i for&esA R"-aie &on&edesA 5ave not rea&5ed t5e (oint .5ere t5ey &an o(erate inde(endently of t5e Ameri&ans. As if to (rove t5e (ointA an Ameri&an military offi&er in &ivilian &lot5es 5overs in t5e -a&kgro"ndA ans.ers t5e national se&"rity adviserMs (5one .5en a re(orter &allsA lives and travels .it5 R"-aieA andA 5is fello. government ministers sayA (ro-a-ly does m"&5 of t5e national se&"rity adviserMs Jo- for 5im. At t5e same timeA 8ra1Ms se&"rity for&es 5ave started to emerge from t5e s5ado. of t5eir Ameri&an instr"&tors. T5eir training 5as -een a&&eleratedA andA in t5e near f"t"reA R"-aie sees R8ra1i se&"rity for&es taking overA 8ra1i for&es taking t5e front lineA PandQ 'N= doing logisti&al and s"((ort Pf"n&tionsQ. #y t5e end of 2337AR 5e (redi&tsA R.eMre very likely to see t5e last F.2. soldier.R A&&ording to t5e F.2. militaryA t5e 8ra1i (oli&e for&e &"rrently fields a-o"t 121A333 menA &lose to t5e n"m-er (lanned forA .5ile t5e 8ra1i armed for&es n"m-er a-o"t 136A333 soldiersA nearly t.o-t5irds of t5e for&e estimated for t5e end of t5is year. T5e 8ra1i army no longer melts a.ay in &om-atA nor does it s"ffer from mass desertionsA as it did d"ring its first -attles in 233). Army re&r"its no. "ndergo a -asi& training &o"rse similar in lengt5 to t5eir Ameri&an &o"nter(artsA offi&ers attend servi&e s&5oolsA and 8ra1is (rovide m"&5 of t5e instr"&tion. As t5e se&"rity for&es gro. more &om(etentA t5ey 5ave ra(idly e<(anded t5e amo"nt of territory "nder t5eir &ontrolA .5i&5 no. in&l"des several neig5-or5oods in #ag5dad and large s.at5s of .estern 8ra1.

),

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

Draft 5olvency - 4nfrastructure

4ra>i draft ,rotects t"e infrastructure solves 4ra>i economic (oes >ames Huinlivan- military analyst and senior mat5emati&ian at RANDA $%%;
?B2ele&tive 2ervi&eC 5tt(D//....rand.org/("-li&ations/randrevie./iss"es/s"mmer233)/servi&e.5tml@ At a more &om(li&ated levelA t5e e&onomi& life of t5e &o"ntry re1"ires t5e (rote&tion of -ig ind"stries and t5eir asso&iated distri-"tion net.orksA most nota-ly t5e oil ind"stry and its .e- of (i(elines. T5e e&onomy also re1"ires t5e (rote&tion of t5e ele&tri&al (o.er (lants and t5eir net.ork of 5ig5-voltage distri-"tion lines. 0ven .ater and se.age systems 5ave -een targets and re1"ire renovationA re(airA and (rote&tion. To se&"re t5e "tility infrastr"&t"reA t5e -alan&e of effort mig5t -e s5ifted a.ay from &a(italA or e1"i(mentA and to.ard la-or. Hig5te&5nology sol"tions t5at de(end on s(e&ial-("r(ose toolsA foreign te&5ni&iansA and 5ig5-(ri&ed se&"rity &ontra&tors &an -e too v"lnera-le. 8n a sit"ation in .5i&5 t5e inv"lnera-ility of large ne. fa&ilities &annot -e g"aranteedA designing m"lti(le smaller fa&ilities t5at are more easily re(la&ed or re(aired .it5 indigeno"s .ork &re.s ke(t on (er(et"al alert &an -e a more resilient a((roa&5 to maintaining t5e infrastr"&t"re. All of t5ese sorts of o(tions de(end on t5e availa-ility of man(o.er. T5e (o("lation (yramid of 8ra1 ?see t5e fig"re@ tells a &ommon story of a (o("lation t5at is gro.ingNand gro.ing yo"nger. T5e fig"reA .5i&5 -reaks t5e (o("lation into five-year age -andsA s5o.s t5at ro"g5ly 33A333 males t"rn 1, every year in 8ra1. Fnder 2addam H"ssein+s regimeA 1, .as t5e &ons&ri(tion age for most 8ra1is .5o &o"ld not .angle a defermentA and a 5ig5 (ro(ortion event"ally served in t5e regime+s many &onfli&ts.

)/

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

OB. /in's
Draft is immoral and violates "uman rig"ts /aundry /ist

Car Resisters9 4nternational- +arc"- $%%2 ?"tt,://(((.(ri-irg.org/,df/usa%2%&-en.,dfE

T5e (ro&ed"re for re&ognising &ons&ientio"s o-Je&tors of t5e (resent all-vol"nteer military is

solely in t5e 5ands of t5e militaryA and t5erefore is not inde(endent and im(artialA as re1"ired -y Commission on H"man Rig5ts resol"tion 1//,/77G 8n (ra&ti&eA &ons&ientio"s o-Je&tors .5o are denied t5e rig5t to &ons&ientio"s o-Je&tion and .5o ref"se orders to de(loy are senten&ed to (risonG T5e denial of ed"&ational -enefits and ot5er forms of dis&rimination against t5ose .5o fail to register for a (otential draft "nder t5e 'ilitary 2ele&tive 2ervi&e A&t is a violation of t5e rig5t t5e ed"&ationA and also amo"nts to ("nis5ment .it5o"t trialG T5e military 5as a&&ess to (rivate data of 5ig5 s&5ool st"dents for re&r"itment ("r(osesA .5i&5 is a violation of t5e rig5t to (riva&yG Co"nter-re&r"itment a&tivists fa&e intimidation and arrest from (oli&eA militaryA and "niversity a"t5oritiesA .5i&5 amo"nts to a violation of t5e rig5t to freedom of e<(ression and freedom of assem-lyG T5e militaryMs Bsto(( lossC orders to e<tend t5e lengt5 of military em(loyment &ontra&ts .it5o"t t5e &onsent of t5e soldier &on&erned are a violation of t5e =or&ed 9a-o"r Convention.

DRA3T O6R 65 4ND4V4D#A/5 TO R6845T6R THRO#8H D61R4VAT4ON O3 R48HT5 Car Resister9s 4nternational- +arc"- $%%2 ?"tt,://(((.(ri-irg.org/,df/usa%2%&-en.,dfE
8n (ra&ti&eA registration is enfor&ed -y t5e denial of -enefits .5i&5 are availa-le to ot5er &itiIens. T5ose .5o 5ave not registered are not eligi-le for federal loans or grants for 5ig5er ed"&ationA for federally-f"nded Jo- trainingA or for most federal em(loyment. T5e federal government 5as also en&o"raged state and m"ni&i(al legislat"res to ena&t similar legislation. As of A"g"st 233)A at least 23 of t5e fifty states ?2 a&&ording to t5e 2ele&tive 2ervi&e Agen&y@ re1"ired t5ose eligi-le to -e registered for t5e draft as a (re&ondition of re&eiving state finan&e for 5ig5er ed"&ation and 17 states .o"ld not em(loy "nregistered (ersons in any &a(a&ity. Nine states de-arred "nregistered men from admission to state &olleges or "niversities. 2tates 5ave also -een en&o"raged to make registration a (re&ondition for t5e iss"e of a driving li&en&eA or a state san&tioned (5otogra(5i& 8DG andA again as of A"g"st 233)A 21 and t5e !irgin 8slands Territory 5ad done soA and in 8llinois t5e ne&essary legislation .as a.aiting t5e :overnor+s a((roval. 0leven f"rt5er statesA (l"s t5e Distri&t of Colom-ia and t5e Territory of :"am 5ad linked t5e (ro&ed"re for a((li&ation for a driving li&en&e to draft registration for t5ose .5o .ere not already registeredA -"t most did not make t5is mandatory. 8n allA only 11 of t5e *3 states made no linkage -et.een draft registration and 5ig5er ed"&ationA state em(loyment or t5e iss"e of driving li&en&esG in t5irteen t5ere .as linkage in all t5ree areas2.

*3

Cal 2k6-7

National Draft Neg

OB. /in's
draft logistics violate ,rivacy and de,rive non-disclosure o,tions.

Car Resister9s 4nternational- +arc" $%%2 ?"tt,://(((.(ri-irg.org/,df/usa%2%&-en.,dfE

#esides military registrationA t5e (ra&ti&e of military re&r"itment is a reason for &on&ern. T5e No Child Left Behind Act .as signed into la. -y 6resident :eorge #"s5 on >an"ary ,A 2332. 8t is an ela-orate rea"t5oriIation of t5e Elementary and Secondary Ed cation Act of !"#$ t5atA among ot5er t5ingsA initially offered grants to lo. in&ome s&5ool areas and esta-lis5ed t5e federal l"n&5 and milk (rograms. 8n s(ite of t5e ne. a&t+s over.5elming s"((ort -y 7as5ington legislators and (oli&y makersA it is starting to &ome "nder fire for a .ell-5idden se&tion entitled 2e&. /*2,. Armed =or&es Re&r"iter A&&ess to 2t"dents and 2t"dent Re&r"iting 8nformation. T5e se&tion grants military re&r"iters a&&ess to st"dentsM (rivate information. 7it5 t5is a&&essA re&r"iters &an make "nsoli&ited &alls and send dire&t-mail re&r"itment literat"re to a yo"ng (erson+s 5ome. 6arentsA st"dentsA ("-li& ed"&ation a&tivists and t5ose .orking to demilitariIe t5e nation+s s&5ools are -eginning to see t5e legislated Bo(en doorC (oli&y for military re&r"iters as a &lear violation of t5e 6riva&y A&t of 1/7). T5e a&t+s &oer&ive lang"age for&es s&5ools and instit"tions re&eiving assistan&e "nder t5e a&t to &om(ly .it5 its dire&tive. Non-&om(lian&e means t5at s&5ools &o"ld fa&e t5e relin1"is5ment of federal f"nding.

Draft violates li!erty Re(. Ron 1aul- $%%2 ?5tt(D//....de-ate-&entral.org/resear&5/a-draft-violates-individ"al-li-erty@

T5e most im(ortant reason to o((ose a draft is t5at it violates t5e very (rin&i(les of individ"al li-erty "(on .5i&5 o"r nation .as fo"nded. T5e -asi& (remise "nderlying &ons&ri(tion is t5at t5e individ"al -elongs to t5e stateA individ"al rig5ts are granted -y t5e stateA and t5erefore (oliti&ians &an a-ridge individ"al rig5ts at .ill. 8n &ontrastA t5e (5iloso(5y .5i&5 ins(ired Ameri&aMs fo"ndersA e<(ressed in t5e De&laration of 8nde(enden&eA is t5at individ"als (ossess nat"ralA :od-given rig5ts .5i&5 &annot -e a-ridged -y t5e government. =or&ing (eo(le into military servi&e against t5eir .ill t5"s dire&tly &ontradi&ts t5e (5iloso(5y of t5e =o"nding =at5ers. A military draft also a((ears to &ontradi&t t5e &onstit"tional (ro5i-ition of invol"ntary servit"de. =ormer 6resident Ronald Reagan elo1"ently e<(ressed t5e moral &ase against t5e draft in t5e ("-li&ation H"man 0vents in 1/7/D RPCons&ri(tionQ rests on t5e ass"m(tion t5at yo"r kids -elong to t5e state. 8f .e -"y t5at ass"m(tion t5en it is for t5e state - not for (arentsA t5e &omm"nityA t5e religio"s instit"tions or tea&5ers - to de&ide .5o s5all 5ave .5at val"es and .5o s5all do .5at .orkA .5enA .5ere and 5o. in o"r so&iety. T5at ass"m(tion isnMt a ne. one. T5e NaIis t5o"g5t it .as a great idea.R D"ring t5e 7ar of 1,12A Daniel 7e-ster elo1"ently made t5e &ase t5at a military draft .as "n&onstit"tionalD R75ere is it .ritten in t5e Constit"tionA in .5at arti&le or se&tion is it &ontainedA t5at yo" may take &5ildren from t5eir (arentsA and (arents from t5eir &5ildrenA and &om(el t5em to fig5t t5e -attles of any .arA in .5i&5 t5e folly or t5e .i&kedness of :overnment may engage itL Fnder .5at &on&ealment 5as t5is (o.er lain 5iddenA .5i&5 no. for t5e first time &omes fort5A .it5 a tremendo"s and -alef"l as(e&tA to tram(le do.n and destroy t5e dearest rig5ts of (ersonal li-ertyL 2irA 8 almost disdain to go to 1"otations and referen&es to (rove t5at s"&5 an a-omina-le do&trine 5ad no fo"ndation in t5e Constit"tion of t5e &o"ntry. 8t is eno"g5 to kno. t5at t5e instr"ment .as intended as t5e -asis of a free governmentA and t5at t5e (o.er &ontended for is in&om(ati-le .it5 any notion of (ersonal li-erty . An attem(t to maintain t5is do&trine "(on t5e (rovisions of t5e Constit"tion is an e<er&ise of (erverse ingen"ity to e<tra&t slavery from t5e s"-stan&e of a free government. 8t is an attem(t to s5o.A -y (roof and arg"mentA t5at .e o"rselves are s"-Je&ts of des(otismA and t5at .e 5ave a rig5t to &5ains and -ondageA firmly se&"red to "s and o"r &5ildrenA -y t5e (rovisions of o"r government.R

*1

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