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Technical Report
EPRI 3412 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304 PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303 USA 800.313.3774 650.855.2121 askepri@epri.com www.epri.com
ORDERING INFORMATION
Requests for copies of this report should be directed to the EPRI Distribution Center, 207 Coggins Drive, P.O. Box 23205, Pleasant Hill, CA 94523, (800) 313-3774. Electric Power Research Institute and EPRI are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. EPRI. ELECTRIFY THE WORLD is a service mark of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. Copyright 2000 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
CITATIONS
This report was prepared by Engineering Mechanics Technology 4340 Stevens Creek Blvd., Suite 166 San Jose, CA 95129 Principal Investigator D. Harris This report describes research sponsored by EPRI. The report is a corporate document that should be cited in the literature in the following manner: Guidelines for Performing Probabilistic Analyses of Boiler Pressure Parts, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2000. 1000311.
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REPORT SUMMARY
Using probabilistic methodologies for life assessment of boiler components provides a more realistic basis for managing the inspection, maintenance, repair, and replacement actions for those components. Such a realistic basis also couples with economic parameters to allow utilities to make better overall decisions in their efforts to reduce operating and maintenance costs. In the competitive environment for power generation, more accurate assessments of risks and benefits must be incorporated into utility decision making. Probabilistic techniques are a proven way to refine the basis for such decisions. This document reviews some life prediction methodologies and discusses relevant statistical principles. It provides guidelines on the generation and use of such results in maintenance and inspection planning. Background In the past, maintenance decisions and corresponding expenditures could be based on engineering analyses using approximate models for component damage mechanisms and adding conservative safety factors to account for both model and data inaccuracies. However, because of the emerging competitive environment and more financially oriented management, utilities are finding that such conservative approaches are non-optimum in balancing costs and benefits. Decisions need to be justified from an economic point of view that better incorporates risks of equipment failure. Probabilistic techniques have been used in other industries to provide such a risk-based bridge to economic decision making. Recent EPRI analytical models such as the Boiler Life Evaluation and Simulation System (BLESS) incorporate options to allow probabilistic analyses. Utilities can now use these options to improve decisions on boiler component inspections, maintenance, repair, and replacement. Objectives N To review probabilistic methodologies for use in boiler component life management
N
To provide guidelines on the generation and use of such results in maintenance and inspection planning
Approach Using a probabilistic approach, the probability of failure within a certain time range can be estimated, rather than providing a deterministic failure time. The deterministic result uses a single set of input variables and is used with a safety factor to account for inaccuracies in the model and its input. Probabilistic results are generated by running a series of analyses in which key input parameters are varied to reflect the actual variation occurring in the population of similar components. These results are generally expressed as failure probabilities (or failure rates) versus time. The time for remedial action can be keyed to the time at which failure rate
becomes excessive. This document concentrates on boiler pressure parts, but much of the discussion is readily applicable to other components that degrade due to material aging. The probabilistic approach reviewed in this document is based on an underlying mechanistic model of lifetime. Representative lifetime models are reviewed with a focus on boiler pressure parts. Special attention is paid to probabilities associated with crack initiation and growth, which are leading causes of material degradation and component failure. Statistical background information is provided in the area of probabilistic structural analysis. The development of probabilistic models of component lifetimes is also discussed. Results When using probabilistic methodologies for component life management, the following points need to be kept in mind:
N N N N N
Lifetime models are available Scatter and uncertainties in inputs to the models usually preclude accurate deterministic results Probabilistic lifetime models can be obtained by quantifying the scatter and uncertainty and incorporating them into the underlying deterministic lifetime model Numerical procedures for generation of failure probabilities are available, and numerical results can usually be obtained using a personal computer Probabilistic results can be used in analyses of expected future operating costs, which are of great use in component life management
EPRI Perspective As utilities come under increased pressure to reduce costs and extend the lifetime of plant components, interest has increased in procedures for rationally planning inspection and maintenance. EPRI and other organizations have facilitated the use of risk-principles to prioritize maintenance actions. Building on software tools such as the BLESS code and processes such as those developed for extending intervals between turbine maintenance outages (TURBO-X), this report provides guidance for the use of probabilistic approaches in managing boiler component life. This information can then be incorporated into the component cost-benefit models to optimize overall costs. Keywords Probabilistic analysis Boiler components Life assessment
vi
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................. 1-1 2 REVIEW OF DETERMINISTIC LIFE PREDICTION PROCEDURES FOR BOILER PRESSURE PARTS ............................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Crack Initiation........................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Fatigue Crack Initiation ......................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.2 Creep Crack Initiation ........................................................................................... 2-3 2.1.3 Creep/Fatigue Crack Initiation............................................................................... 2-6 2.1.4 Oxide Notching ..................................................................................................... 2-7 2.2 Crack Growth ............................................................................................................ 2-8 2.2.1 Crack Tip Stress Fields......................................................................................... 2-8 2.2.2 Crack Driving Force Solutions............................................................................. 2-10 2.2.3 Calculation of Critical Crack Sizes ...................................................................... 2-13 2.2.4 Fatigue Crack Growth ......................................................................................... 2-13 2.2.5 Creep Crack Growth ........................................................................................... 2-14 2.2.6 Creep/Fatigue Crack Growth .............................................................................. 2-15 2.3 Simple Example Problems....................................................................................... 2-18 2.3.1 Fatigue of a Crack in a Large Plate..................................................................... 2-18 2.3.2 Creep Damage in a Thinning Tube ..................................................................... 2-19 3 SOME STATISTICAL BACKGROUND INFORMATION...................................................... 3-1 3.1 3.2 3.3 Probability Density Functions .................................................................................... 3-1 Fitting Distributions .................................................................................................... 3-4 Combinations of Random Variables ........................................................................ 3-11
3.3.1 Analytical Methods.............................................................................................. 3-11 3.3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Principles ................................................................... 3-12 3.3.3 Monte Carlo Confidence Intervals .................................................................... 3-16 3.3.4 Monte Carlo Simulation Importance Sampling ................................................. 3-19
vii
3.3.5 First Order Reliability Methods Basics.............................................................. 3-21 3.3.6 First Order Reliability Methods General ........................................................... 3-27 4 DEVELOPMENT OF PROBABILISTIC MODELS FROM DETERMINISTIC BASICS.......... 4-1 4.1 4.2 Discussion................................................................................................................. 4-1 Simple Example Problems......................................................................................... 4-4
4.2.1 Fatigue Crack Growth in a Large Plate ................................................................. 4-4 4.2.2 Creep Damage in a Thinning Tube ..................................................................... 4-11 4.2.3 Hazard Rates...................................................................................................... 4-15 4.3 Inspection Detection Probabilities............................................................................ 4-18
5 EXAMPLE OF A PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS ................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Gathering the Necessary Information ........................................................................ 5-1 5.1.1 Component Geometry and Material ...................................................................... 5-1 5.1.2 Operating Conditions ............................................................................................ 5-3 5.2 5.3 Performing the Analysis............................................................................................. 5-6 Combining Data....................................................................................................... 5-12
6 USE OF PROBABILISTIC RESULTS.................................................................................. 6-1 6.1 6.2 Target Hazard Rates ................................................................................................. 6-1 Economic Models ...................................................................................................... 6-5
7 CONCLUDING REMARKS .................................................................................................. 7-1 A DETAILS OF BLESS EXAMPLE ........................................................................................A-1 B REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................B-1
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1 Strain Life Data for A106B Carbon Steel in Air at 550F (290C) With Median Curve Fit [From Keisler 95] .............................................................................................. 2-2 Figure 2-2 Creep Rupture Data for 1 Cr Mo With Curve Fit [From Grunloh 92] (1 ksi=6.895MPa) ............................................................................................................ 2-4 Figure 2-3 Creep/Fatigue Damage Plane Showing Combinations Corresponding to Crack Initiation................................................................................................................. 2-6 Figure 2-4 Crack-Like Defect Initiated by Oxide Notching........................................................ 2-7 Figure 2-5 Depiction of Procedure for Determination of Oxide Thickness for a Time at Tlo Followed by a Time at Thi ................................................................................................. 2-8 Figure 2-6 Coordinate System Near a Crack Tip ..................................................................... 2-9 Figure 2-7 Through-Crack of Length 2a in a Large Plate Subject to Stress . ....................... 2-11 Figure 2-8 Single Edge-Cracked Strip in Tension With J-Solution ......................................... 2-12 Figure 2-9 Fatigue Crack Growth as a Function of the Cyclic Stress Intensity Factor for 2 Cr 1 Mo at Various Temperatures [Drawn From Viswanathan 89]........................... 2-14 Figure 2-10 Creep and Creep/Fatigue Crack Growth Data and Fits. Left Figure Is for Constant Load and Right Figure Is for Cyclic Load With Various Hold Times [From Grunloh 92].......................................................................................................... 2-17 Figure 2-11 Half-Crack Length as a Function of the Number of Cycles to 20 ksi (137.9 MPa) for Example Fatigue Problem .................................................................... 2-19 Figure 2-12 Time to Failure as a Function of the Wall-Thinning Rate for the Creep Rupture Example Problem (1 Mil/Year=25.4 m/yr)....................................................... 2-21 Figure 3-1 Plot of Data of Table 3-2 on Log-Linear Scales ...................................................... 3-8 Figure 3-2 Lognormal Probability Plot of Data of Table 3-2 ..................................................... 3-8 Figure 3-3 Normal Probability Plot of Data of Table 3-2........................................................... 3-9 Figure 3-4 Cumulative Probability of the Sum of Two Lognormals as Computed by Numerical Integration and Monte Carlo With 20 and 500 Trials ..................................... 3-15 Figure 3-5 Values of Factors in Table 3-5 Divided by the Number of Failures ....................... 3-19 Figure 3-6 Cumulative Probability of the Sum of Two Lognormals as Computed by Numerical Integration and Monte Carlo Simulation With 20 Trials, With and Without Importance Sampling..................................................................................................... 3-21 Figure 3-7 Pictorial Representation of Joint Density Function in Unit Variate Space Showing Failure Curve and Most Probable Failure Point (MPFP) .................................. 3-22 Figure 3-8 Plot of the Performance Function in Reduced Variate Space for the Example Problem of Two Lognormals for z=2. The Origin Is at the Upper Right Corner, and the Most Probable Failure Point Is Indicated.................................................................. 3-24
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Figure 3-9 Cumulative Probability of the Sum of Two Lognormals as Computed by the First Order Reliability Method and Numerical Integration ............................................... 3-25 Figure 3-10 Example of a Performance Function With the Vector Normal to the Axis of One of the Variables Showing the Insensitivity of to That Variable.............................. 3-26 Figure 3-11 The Direction Cosines of x and y for the Example Problem of the Sum of Two Lognormals ............................................................................................................ 3-27 Figure 3-12 Diagrammatic Representation of a Procedure for Finding Most Probable Failure Point .................................................................................................................. 3-31 Figure 4-1 Probabilistic Treatment of Strain-Life Data for A106B Carbon Steel in Air at 550F (288C) Showing Various Quantiles of the Keisler Curve Fit [From Keisler 95]...... 4-3 Figure 4-2 Cumulative Distribution of Critical Crack Size for the Fatigue Crack Growth Example Problem (104 Trials) .......................................................................................... 4-6 Figure 4-3 Lognormal Probability Plot of the Failure Probability as a Function of the Number of Cycles for the Fatigue Example Problem (104 Trials)...................................... 4-7 Figure 4-4 Plot on Lognormal Scales of the Distribution of Cycles to Failure for the Example Fatigue Crack Growth Problem and the Same Problem With the Mean and Standard Deviation Divided by Two (106 Trials) ............................................................... 4-7 Figure 4-5 Cumulative Failure Probabilities in the Lower Probability Region of the Fatigue Crack Growth Example Problem With Two Distributions of the Fracture Toughness (106 Trials)..................................................................................................... 4-8 Figure 4-6 Cumulative Failure Probabilities in the Lower Probability Region for the Fatigue Crack Growth Example Problem. Solid Line is Monte Carlo With 106 Trials, Points are Results From Rackwitz-Fiessler...................................................................... 4-9 Figure 4-7 Cumulative Failure Probabilities in the Lower Probability Region for the Fatigue Crack Growth Problem as Obtained Using Importance Sampling With 1000 Trials With Different Shifts in Parameters of Input Random Variables. Points are From Rackwitz-Fiessler. ................................................................................................ 4-10 Figure 4-8 Direction Cosines for the Fatigue Crack Growth Example Problem as a Function of the Number of Cycles to Failure .................................................................. 4-11 Figure 4-9 Creep Rupture Data for 1 Cr 1/2 Mo as Obtained From Van Echo 66 With Least Squares Linear Fit (Stress in ksi, Ta in Degrees Rankine, tR in Hours) .................. 4-13 Figure 4-10 Cumulative Distribution of the Random Variable A Used to Describe the Scatter in the Larson-Miller Data for 1 Cr 1/2 Mo Steel .............................................. 4-13 Figure 4-11 Results of Example Problem of Creep Damage in a Thinning Tube as Obtained by Monte Carlo Simulation With 104 Trials ...................................................... 4-15 Figure 4-12 Hazard Function vs. Cycles for the Fatigue Crack Growth Example Problem..... 4-17 Figure 4-13 Failure Rate as a Function of Time for the Thinning Problem Only. Histogram Results Are for the Smallest 2,000 Failure Times in 106 Trials, the Line Is for the Closed Form Result. ........................................................................................... 4-18 Figure 4-14 Nondetection Probability as a Function of Crack Depth Divided by Plate Thickness for Fatigue Cracks in Ferritic Steel for Three Qualities of Ultrasonic Inspection ...................................................................................................................... 4-21 Figure 4-15 Failure Probability as a Function of Time for the Inspection Example Problem ......................................................................................................................... 4-22
Figure 4-16 Comparison of Fatigue Example Problem of Infinite Plate With Finite Thickness Results With No Inspection Using PRAISE Code.......................................... 4-23 Figure 5-1 Schematic Representation of Typical Header With Illustration of Segment Considered in Analysis .................................................................................................... 5-2 Figure 5-2 Summary of Header Geometry Analyzed (Length Dimensions in Inches)............... 5-3 Figure 5-3 Log-Linear Plot of Probability of Leak as a Function of Time for Oxide Notching Initiation and Creep Fatigue Crack Growth in Header Example Problem (2,000 Trials) ................................................................................................................... 5-7 Figure 5-4 Lognormal Probability Plot of BLESS Results for the Header Example Problem (Probability in Percent) ...................................................................................... 5-7 Figure 5-5 Lognormal Hazard Function for the Header Example Problem ............................... 5-9 Figure 5-6 Comparison of Hazard as a Function of Time as Obtained From the BLESS Output Data and the Fitted Lognormal Relation ............................................................. 5-10 Figure 5-7 Results of Header Example Problem With Varying Shifts and Number of Trials. The Solid Line is the Curve Fit Based on the Estimated Lognormal Distribution With No Shifts (the Line of Figure 5-6). ...................................................... 5-12 Figure 6-1 Log-Log Plot of Frequency Severity Data for Boiler Components From Table 6-2 ......................................................................................................................... 6-4
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 Table of the Function h1(,n) in the J-Solution for an Edge Cracked Plate in Tension for Plane Strain [From Shih 84] ........................................................................ 2-12 Table 3-1 Characteristics of Some Commonly Encountered Probability Functions Used to Describe Scatter and Uncertainty ................................................................................ 3-3 Table 3-2 Values of Cf for Fatigue Crack Growth Data ............................................................ 3-7 Table 3-3 Information on Parameters of Distribution of Cf Data of Table 3-2 ......................... 3-10 Table 3-4 Results of Monte Carlo Example With 20 Trials..................................................... 3-14 Table 3-5 Summary of Some of the Statistics from the Monte Carlo Trials ............................ 3-15 Table 3-6 Confidence Upper Bounds on Ntrpf for Various Numbers of Failures ...................... 3-18 Table 3-7 Coordinates and Direction Cosines of the MPFP for Example Problem With z = 2 .............................................................................................................................. 3-25 Table 3-8 Intermediate Steps in Iterative Procedure for Finding the MPFP for the Example Problem with z=3 ............................................................................................ 3-32 Table 3-9 Intermediate Steps in Iterative Procedure for Finding the MPFP for the Example Problem With z=2 ........................................................................................... 3-33 Table 4-1 Random Variables for the Fatigue Crack Growth Example Problem........................ 4-5 Table 4-2 Steps in Estimating the Hazard Function for the Fatigue Crack Growth Example Problem .......................................................................................................... 4-16 Table 4-3 Parameters of the Equation Describing the Non-Detection Probability .................. 4-20 Table 5-1 Summary of Time-Variation of Operating Conditions ............................................... 5-5 Table 5-2 Summary of Initiation Time for Various Operating Scenarios................................... 5-8 Table 6-1 Examples of Hazards of Common Activities as Measured by Fatality Rate ............. 6-2 Table 6-2 Partial List of Boiler Component Failure Rate and Consequences........................... 6-3 Table 6-3 Calculation of Expected Cost of Continuing Operation of Example Header for Another 20 Years............................................................................................................. 6-7 Table 6-4 Calculation of Expected Cost of Replacing Header Now and Then Operating for Another 20 Years........................................................................................................ 6-8
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1
INTRODUCTION
Deregulation of the electric utility industry has lead to increased competition in the generation of electrical power, which has led to increasing need for systematic means of inspection and maintenance planning. Power plant components are subject to aging due to a variety of mechanisms and must occasionally be replaced or repaired. It is not economical to replace them earlier than necessary, nor is it economical to run them until they cause an unscheduled outage or safety problem. Hence, it is desired to define an optimum time range for remedial action. The purpose of this document is to review probabilistic methodologies for use in component life management and to provide guidelines on the generation and use of such results in maintenance and inspection planning. The points to be made are that: Lifetime models are available There are scatter and uncertainties in inputs to the models that usually preclude accurate deterministic results Probabilistic lifetime models can be obtained by quantifying the scatter and uncertainty and incorporating them into the underlying deterministic lifetime model Numerical procedures for generation of failure probabilities are available, and personal computers are becoming so fast and cheap that generation of numerical results is usually not a problem The probabilistic results generated (failure probability as a function of time) are of direct use in analyses of expected future operating costs, which are of great use in component life management
This document reviews some life prediction methodologies, followed by a discussion of relevant statistical principles. Examples of probabilistic analyses are provided, including the analysis of a header using the EPRI BLESS software. The use of the failure probability results in a run/retirement decision is demonstrated. All of this information is available elsewhere, but not in a single convenient document. Guidance on exercising the resulting probabilistic models is given and interpretation of the results is discussed. Due to uncertainties and inherent randomness in parameters that determine the component life, the precise time of failure can rarely be accurately defined. To account for inherent inaccuracies, conservative safety factors are often applied to deterministic results. Use of probabilistic approaches provides a more useful way of accounting for analysis uncertainties. Using a probabilistic approach, the probability of failure within a certain time range can be estimated, rather than providing a deterministic failure time. The availability of probabilistic information can be viewed as a plus, because this can lead directly to application of risk-based concepts in 1-1
run/replace/retire decisions. Risk is conventionally defined as the product of the probability of failure and the consequences of failure. Hence, one component of risk (the failure probability) is a direct outcome of probabilistic analyses. The time for remedial action can be keyed to the time at which failure rate becomes excessive excessive being based on level of risk. Including consequences in the process allows attention to be focused on the items of importance. Items with a high failure rate but low consequences do not require the level of attention that would occur if only failure rate was used in the decision process. Another advantage of using failure probability is that it can be used to estimate the future expected cost of failure, which can be an important component of expected future operating cost. These expected costs can be incorporated into financial models to optimize equipment life management over an entire group of plants. These costs are expressed in terms that are readily communicated to utility management. This document concentrates on boiler pressure parts, but much of the discussion is readily applicable to other components that degrade due to material aging.
1-2
2
REVIEW OF DETERMINISTIC LIFE PREDICTION PROCEDURES FOR BOILER PRESSURE PARTS
The probabilistic approach reviewed in this document is based on an underlying mechanistic model of lifetime. Hence, such models are fundamental to the approach, and this section will review some representative lifetime models. Boiler pressure parts are subject to material degradation by a wide variety of mechanisms. Boiler pressure parts are considered to be headers (superheater, reheater, and economizer), tubing (superheater and reheater), and pipes. Viswanathan 89 provides a comprehensive summary of degradation mechanisms and life prediction approaches, with his Chapter 5 being devoted to boiler components. Material degradation in boiler pressure parts is mostly due to creep and/or fatigue. This can involve crack initiation and/or crack growth. Corrosion, pitting, oxidation and erosion can also be problems. Oxidation and fire-side corrosion can be troublesome in tubing, but will not be covered here. Viswanathan 89 and 92 provide information on these topics. Crack initiation in headers by oxide notching is an important degradation mechanism, and the model used in BLESS [Grunloh 92] is discussed and considered in an example problem. The life prediction methodologies for creep and fatigue are quite different. Also, the procedures to be employed for crack initiation are quite different than for crack growth. The crack growth methodologies discussed here are based on fracture mechanics and are applicable when the lifetime is controlled by the behavior of a single (or a few) dominant cracks.
2.1
Crack Initiation
Crack initiation can occur due to fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, creep, oxide notching or a combination of these. Stress corrosion will not be discussed here. Fatigue crack initiation occurs due to cyclic loading and may occur in the absence of time-dependent material response. In contrast to this, creep crack initiation occurs due to time spent in the stress and temperature range where time-dependent material response (creep) is important. Creep generally is not a problem in metals at temperature less than about 1/3 to 1/2 of the absolute melting temperature. In the steels used in electrical power generating plants, this is about 800F (427C). Oxide notching is a problem that is aggravated by load cycling. 2.1.1 Fatigue Crack Initiation The initiation of fatigue cracks is due to cyclic loading and can occur at temperatures well below the range where creep is important. This is the degradation mechanism most familiar to 2-1
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
engineers. The cyclic lifetime is measured in the laboratory as a function of the cyclic stress (or strain) level, and expressed as an S-N curve. The data is most often in terms of the cycles to failure, rather than cycles to initiation. Figure 2-1 provides an example, which is from Keisler 95 and is for A106 carbon steel in air at 550F (290C). The amount of scatter in the data is usually large, and the desirability of a probabilistic approach is immediately apparent. The data in Figure 2-1 are actually the cycles for a 25% load drop in the test, which corresponds approximately to a 3 mm deep crack. The data is in terms of the strain amplitude (one-half the peak-to-peak value). The following functional form is often used to represent fatigue data:
a = BN b + A
Eq. 2-1
The line in Figure 2-1 is a plot of the best fit obtained for this data by Keisler and Chopra [Keisler 95], which corresponds to A=0.11, B=27.47, and b=0.534.
Figure 2-1 Strain Life Data for A106B Carbon Steel in Air at 550F (290C) With Median Curve Fit [From Keisler 95]
2-2
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
In cases where the cyclic stress level varies during the lifetime, such as is usually the case due to different loads, the cycles to failure is generally computed by use of Miners rule. The damage per cycle of strain of amplitude is taken to be equal to 1/N(), so the damage for n cycles of amplitude is n/N(). The total damage is then the sum for each of the contributors, and failure is taken to occur when the damage totals to unity. For instance, if a given time period consists of ni cycles of strain amplitude i, and there are L different amplitudes of cycling, then the fatigue damage for this time period is Df =
N ( )
L i i =1 i
Eq. 2-2
The value of N(i) is obtained from Equation 2-1. The number of time periods to failure is the number of time periods to reach D=1. Failure can be final failure of a specimen, the presence of a crack, or, in the particular case of the Keisler data, a crack of about 3 mm in size. Fracture mechanics principles can be used to then grow the crack once it initiates. The accumulated fatigue damage does not change the stresses in a complex body, except for the presence of the crack. 2.1.2 Creep Crack Initiation Creep cracks can initiate after a period of time under steady loading. The lifetimes of uniaxial tensile specimens are typically measured for a range of temperatures as a function of the applied stress. The rupture lifetimes are often then plotted as function of a so-called Larson-Miller parameter, which is defined as LMP = TA [C + log(t R )]
Eq. 2-3
TA is the absolute temperature. C is evaluated as part of the curve fitting procedure. Figure 2-2 is a typical plot of creep rupture data for 1 Cr Mo steel. A plot of the best fit is also shown, but a considerable amount of scatter is again observed, and the usefulness of a probabilistic approach is apparent.
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EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
Figure 2-2 Creep Rupture Data for 1 Cr Mo With Curve Fit [From Grunloh 92] (1 ksi=6.895MPa)
The following expression is the curve fit shown in Figure 2-2, with C in Equation 2-3 equal to 20: LMP = 42869 5146[log ] 956[log ]2
Eq. 2-4
The log is to the base 10, the temperature is in degrees Rankine (1R=5/9K), the stress is in thousand pounds per square inch (ksi), and the rupture time is in hours. Equations 2-3 and 2-4 can be considered to provide a function that gives the rupture time as a function of stress and temperature, tR(,T). The time to rupture for varying stress conditions is often evaluated by the creep counterpart of Miners rule, which is called Robinsons rule. For a set of times ti spent at a stress i and temperature Ti, the creep damage is evaluated by use of the expression Dc =
t ( , T )
L
ti
Eq. 2-5
i =1
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EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
Failure is considered to occur when the creep damage reaches unity. Failure is the rupture of a laboratory specimen, or, in a larger component, can be considered to be the initiation of a creep crack. An alternative procedure for considering creep damage has been suggested that is usually associated with the names of Kachanov and Rabotnov. Skrzypek and Hetnarski [Skryzpek 93] provide a recent summary. This is the continuum creep damage mechanics methodology, which has the advantage of being easily expanded to complex geometries and stress/temperature histories. Finite element procedures can easily be implemented. Unlike fatigue damage, creep straining and associated damage can result in appreciable redistribution of stresses relative to initial elastic conditions. Such factors are readily treated by continuum creep damage mechanics. The discussion here is limited to simple stress conditions. The creep damage enters into the relation between the creep strain rate and the stress and temperature. In the simplest case of uniaxial tension, the creep rate is often expressed by a so-called Norton relation. The following form contains a term to account for temperature variations and describes the minimum strain rate (which is also known as the steady state or secondary creep rate). = Ae Q / T n
Eq. 2-6
The parameter Q is the activation energy for creep divided by the gas constant. T is the absolute temperature. Creep damage can be included in the stress-strain rate relation in the following way = Ae Q / T
LM OP N1 Q
Eq. 2-7
The term is the creep damage, which accumulates according to the relation d 1 = dt (1 + )t R ( , T )(1 )
Eq. 2-8
The only additional material constant is , which can be evaluated from data on the tertiary creep characteristics of the material (the increase in strain rate that occurs as failure is approached). Failure occurs when =1. For constant stress and temperature conditions this corresponds to failure at tR for that stress and temperature. For stress and temperature that vary in a known fashion, Equation 2-8 can be used to evaluate the time to failure by separating variables and integrating. The initial damage is 0 and failure occurs when =1. This leads directly to the following relation
tR
dt =1 t R [ (t ), T ]
Eq. 2-9
This is the counterpart of Robinsons rule (Equation 2-5) expressed as an integral rather than a sum. An example of the use of continuum creep damage mechanics to a simple problem is provided in Section 2.3.2.
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EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
In some instances, primary creep can be important, and is often included as another term in the creep ratestress relation. Typically, the following relation is employed: = Be Q / T (1 + p)
1/(1+ p )
m + Ae Q / T n p /(1+ p ) p t (1 + )
Eq. 2-10
No creep damage is included in this expression. The first term is the primary creep strain rate, and the second term is the secondary creep strain rate. B, m, p, Q, A, and n are material constants that are obtained from curve fits to creep straintime test data. They are considered to be independent of temperature, at least over a limited range of temperature. There are ways to include both of these terms in one expression [Stouffer 96] and include creep damage at the same time. Such representations are much more convenient to include in finite element computations for life prediction of complex geometries. Such representations are beyond the scope of these guidelines. 2.1.3 Creep/Fatigue Crack Initiation Creep/fatigue crack initiation is based on the fatigue and creep damage expressed by Equations 2-2 and 2-5, respectively. It is tempting to assume that failure (crack initiation) will occur when the sum of the creep and fatigue damage is equal to unity. However, it has been experimentally observed that there is some interaction between the damage mechanisms, and failure is considered when the creep and fatigue damage conditions fall outside a line on a creepfatigue damage plot. Figure 2-3 schematically shows the usual treatment.
Figure 2-3 Creep/Fatigue Damage Plane Showing Combinations Corresponding to Crack Initiation
2-6
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
2.1.4 Oxide Notching Crack-like defects can be initiated by the growth and cracking of oxide layers. Figure 2-4 is a photomicrograph of a crack-like defect that has initiated due to repeated cracking of the oxide scale during start-stop cycles.
This initiation mechanism is considered in a deterministic fashion in the BLESS software [Grunloh 92, Harris 93]. A corresponding probabilistic treatment is not available. Section 4.2.1 of Grunloh 92 provides the details of the oxide notching model in BLESS. In this case, the growth of the steam-side oxide under constant temperature conditions is expressed as hox = C1e C2 / T t C3
Eq. 2-11
The values of C1 C3 are taken to be deterministically defined. The temperature is in absolute degrees. Simple procedures for evaluation of the oxide thickness when temperature varies are given by Grunloh 92 and are depicted in Figure 2-5 for a time t1 at T1 and t2 at T2. The oxide thickness is taken to continuously increase as long as the adjacent metal temperature is greater than Tlo-ox. If the metal temperature decreases below Tlo-ox, the oxide is assumed to crack, and the crack depth is incremented by an amount equal to the increment in the oxide thickness since the last time it cracked. The oxide thickness is then rezeroed and grown during subsequent times above Tlo-ox. Once the oxide notch crack depth reaches a specified depth, it is considered to be an initiated crack that then grows by fracture mechanics principles, as discussed in Section 2.2. The value of Tlo-ox is 700F (371C) in BLESS and the depth of notching at which fracture mechanics principles takes over is 0.030 inches (0.76 mm).
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EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
Figure 2-5 Depiction of Procedure for Determination of Oxide Thickness for a Time at Tlo Followed by a Time at Thi
2.2
Crack Growth
The initiation of a crack most often does not mean that the component has reached the end of its useful life. Fracture mechanics procedures can be used to estimate the remaining time to grow the crack to the point where it will pose a significant risk to continued operation. Similarly, cracks may initially be present in a component, and fracture mechanics is again called for. 2.2.1 Crack Tip Stress Fields Fracture mechanics principles are most often based on the analysis of the stresses near a crack tip. The stresses depend on the stress strain relation of the material, which, for uniaxial tension, can often be expressed as
F I =G J H DK
Eq. 2-12
When n=1 and D=E, this is the familiar Hookes law of linear elasticity, and is the elastic strain. When n 1, then this can represent nonlinear elastic behavior which is the same as plasticity as long as no unloading occurs. The strain is then the plastic strain. This is the Ramberg-Osgood representation of plasticity. If the strain is a rate, rather than a strain directly, then this can represent the secondary creep relation of Equation 2-6. This is readily applied to primary creep also. Hence, Equation 2-12 can be used to describe a variety of material responses.
2-8
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
The deformation field near a crack tip in a homogeneous isotropic body whose stress-strain relation is given by Equation 2-12 is characterized by the so-called Hutchinson-Rice-Rosengren singularity and is given as [Kanninen 85, Kumar 81, Anderson 95] JD n ij = I r n n +1 ~ ij ( , n)
n 1
J n +1 ~ ij = DI r ij ( , n) n J ui = DI n n +1 n1 +1 ~ r u i ( , n)
n
Eq. 2-13
~ , ~ and u ~ are dimensionless tabulated functions [Shih 83] and I is a dimensionless where ij ij i n constant [Anderson 95, Kanninen 87] that depends on n and whether the conditions are plane stress or plane strain. These equations show that i) the stresses and strains are large as r approaches zero, ii) the deformation field (for a given n) always has the same spatial variation, and iii) the magnitude of the field (for a given D and n) is controlled by the single parameter J. Dimensional considerations require that J has the units of Dr, which is (stress)x(length) or (F/L). J is a measure of the crack driving force. The parameter J is Rices J-integral, which is the value of the strain energy release rate with respect to crack area (joules/m2, in-lb/in2, etc.). Specific examples of J solutions are given in Section 2.2.2. The case of linear elasticity is when n in Equation 2-12 is equal to 1. This case is of particular interest, and Equations 2-13 can be written explicitly as follows:
x =
Eq. 2-14
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EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
As expected, the stresses are controlled by a single parameter, which is denoted as K and is called the stress intensity factor. K and J are related to one another by the expression
R K | |E J=S | K (1 ) | T E
2 2 2
plane stress
Eq. 2-15
plane strain
Equation 2-14 shows that K has the units of (stress)x(length)1/2. (E is Youngs modulus and is Poissons ratio). Specific examples of K solutions are discussed in Section 2.2.2. If the strain in Equation 2-12 is replaced by a strain rate, the stress-strain rate relation is as given in Equation 2-6. Equations 2-13 still describe the stress and strain rate field near the crack tip, and the field is controlled by a single parameter which is the rate analog of the J-integral, which is denoted as C*. If primary creep is also included, as in Equation 2-10, then C* is applicable to the secondary creep and there is another parameter to account for the primary creep. This * parameter is referred to as Ch , and is the parameter controlling the crack tip stress field when primary creep is dominant. 2.2.2 Crack Driving Force Solutions Equation 2-13 shows that the stress-strain-displacement field near a crack tip is controlled by a single parameter J. As Equation 2-14 shows, if n=1, then the parameter K controls the field, but K is related to J by Equation 2-15. The magnitude and type of loading, as well as the geometry of the cracked body, have an influence on the crack tip fields, and this influence enters into the expression for J or K, which are referred to here as the crack driving forces. From dimensional considerations, the stress intensity factor K has dimensions of (stress x square root of length). For the linear problems to which K is applicable, K must vary linearly with the applied loads. For a through-crack in a large plate, such as is shown in Figure 2-7, K must be proportional to a , because a is the only length available.
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The proportionality constant turns out to be 1/2, as obtained from the limiting case of the elasticity solution for stresses near the tip of an elliptical hole in a plate. In general, stress intensity factor solutions can be written as K = a F (geometry)
Eq. 2-16
There are numerous such K-solutions available for a wide range of crack configurations and loadings. Tada, Paris and Irwin [Tada 00] is an example of such a compendium. If the crack driving force is expressed in terms of J, which has units of in-lb/in2 or Joules/m2, the crack driving force can be written as J = a G ( geometry , n)
Eq. 2-17
For the simple problem of Figure 2-7, and n=1, G=. If the material is creeping, then J is . J-solutions are tabulated in Kanninen 87, Anderson 95 replaced by C* and is replaced by and Kumar 81. As an example of a J-solution, consider the edge-cracked strip in tension shown in Figure 2-8. The expression for J is given in the figure. The function h1(,n) has been determined by finite element computations and tabulated [Shih 84]. Table 2-1 is the table for plane strain.
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J=
h1 ( , n) n +1 a n D (1 ) n () n +1
=a/h
1455 . R | =S | T1.072
Figure 2-8 Single Edge-Cracked Strip in Tension With J-Solution Table 2-1 Table of the Function h1(,n) in the J-Solution for an Edge Cracked Plate in Tension for Plane Strain [From Shih 84] a/h 0.125 0.250 0.375 0.500 0.625 0.750 0.875 n=1 5.01 4.42 3.97 3.45 2.89 2.38 1.93 2 7.17 5.20 3.48 2.62 2.16 1.86 1.62 3 9.09 5.16 2.88 2.02 1.70 1.55 1.43 5 12.7 4.54 1.92 1.22 1.11 1.13 1.18 7 16.3 3.87 1.28 0.754 0.744 0.858 1.00 10 21.7 3.02 0.704 0.373 0.420 0.585 0.812 13 27.3 2.38 0.396 0.188 0.243 0.409 0.672 16 34.1 1.90 0.225 0.0952 0.142 0.290 0.563 20 45.2 1.48 0.111 0.0391 0.0710 0.186 0.452
2-12
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
A variety of other geometries have been analyzed with solutions analogous to the one shown in Figure 2-8. See for instance, Kanninen 87, Kumar 81, and Anderson 95. Many more crack cases have been analyzed for the linear problem, because the procedures involved (usually finite elements) are more straightforward and linear superposition is applicable. Tada 00 is an example of a compendium of stress intensity solutions. 2.2.3 Calculation of Critical Crack Sizes Since the stresses and strains surrounding a crack tip are controlled by the value of the J-integral, a reasonable failure criterion is that failure occurs when the applied value of J equals some critical value, JIc. The value of JIc is obtained in a test. This criterion is often valid and has been widely used. There are many complications, however, including the influence of non-singular terms on the stresses and strains, as well as well as increasing resistance of the material to crack growth as the crack extends. These complications will not be considered here. Anderson 95 provides details. In the case of conditions where the body remains substantially elastic, the failure criterion can be expressed in terms of the stress intensity factor, with a critical value being denoted as KIc. The critical value of J or K is usually called the fracture toughness. 2.2.4 Fatigue Crack Growth Since the stress-strain field near the tip of a crack is controlled by a single parameter, it is reasonable to presume that the rate of growth of a crack in a body subject to cyclic loading (da/dN) is controlled by the cyclic value of the crack tip stress parameter. For linearly elastic bodies, the cyclic parameter is K, which is equal to Kmax Kmin. This has been observed to be the case for a wide variety of metals and conditions, and the following relation is often found to provide a good fit to data da = C f K m dN
Eq. 2-18
This is the so-called Paris relation and is a suitable representation under a wide variety of conditions. At extremes of crack growth rates, such as very slow (<~10-7 in/cycle) or quite rapid (>~10-3 in/cycle), the crack growth behavior can deviate from this relation, and more complex representations are appropriate. The Forman relation is widely used in such instances; see for instance Henkener 93. Figure 2-9 is an example of fatigue crack growth data. The material is 2 Cr 1 Mo steel at various temperatures. The figure is drawn from Viswanathan 89. The room temperature fit is also shown, and the dashed line is a least squares curve fit to the 1100F (593C) data. Both of the lines in Figure 2-9 are of the form of Equation 2-18, that is, the Paris relation. This figure shows that the fatigue crack growth rate is not a strong function of temperature, with data for 700F (371C) being comparable to the room temperature line. The 1100F (593C) data is considerably above the data for the lower temperatures, however. The amount of scatter in the data is seen to be quite large, especially for the 1100F (593C) data. This suggests the use of a probabilistic treatment. The values of Cf and m for the lines in Figure 2-9 are as follows: 2-13
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
m 3.85 2.95
The values of Cf are applicable when K is in ksi-in1/2 (1 ksi-in1/2=1.099 MPa-m1/2) and da/dN is in inches per cycle.
Figure 2-9 Fatigue Crack Growth as a Function of the Cyclic Stress Intensity Factor for 2 Cr 1 Mo at Various Temperatures [Drawn From Viswanathan 89]
2.2.5 Creep Crack Growth The stresses near a crack tip in a body that is undergoing secondary creep according to Equation 2-6 are controlled by the parameter C*, which is the time analog of the J-integral. Hence, it would be reasonable for the creep crack growth rate (da/dt) to be controlled by the value of C*. This has been observed to be the case, but many complicating factors arise. The primary restriction is that the body must be fully in the steady-state creep range; elastic and primary creep strain rates must be negligible. Even if the material exhibits no primary creep, there is still an elastic response that must be considered. Under the case of secondary creep dominating, Equation 2-19 has been found to provide a good representation of data da = Cc C * q dt
Eq. 2-19
2-14
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
When the strain rates consist of elastic, primary and secondary creep rates, the situation becomes more complex. A variety of procedures have been suggested, such as described in Riedel 87 , Saxena 98, and Bloom and Malito [Bloom 92]. The approach of Bloom is to consider a timedependent crack driving force that has terms corresponding to elastic, primary creep, and secondary creep. The crack driving force is referred to as Ct(t) and is given as Ct (t ) = C *2 /[(1+ p )( m1)]
LM (1 ) K OP N E (n + 1)t Q
2 2
2 (1+ p )(1 m )
n + p +1 * 1 Ch t (n + 1)( p + 1)
FG IJ HK
p /(1+ p )
Eq. 2-20
+ C*
The first line is the elastic transient that occurs on initial loading, the second line is the secondary creep, and the third line is the steady-state creep. As time becomes very large, the third line dominates. The parameter C*h is the primary creep analog of the steady state parameter C*. It is obtainable n from the J-solution by replacing (1/D ) with B(1 + p)e Q / T
1/(1+ p )
The creep crack growth rate is then considered to be related to Ct(t) by use of Equation 2-19 with C* replaced by Ct(t). This provides the relation da = Cc [Ct (t )]q dt 2.2.6 Creep/Fatigue Crack Growth When cyclic loading occurs at temperatures and cycling rates where creep is important, the increment of crack growth per cycle has been found to be related to the average value of Ct(t) during the cycle plus a fatigue contribution. The growth per cycle is given by the expression a|cycle = C f K
mf
Eq. 2-21
+ Cc Ct ,ave t h
Eq. 2-22
2-15
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
Ct ,ave =
th
Ct (t )dt
Eq. 2-23
to
In this expression, th is the duration of the time at load and to is a small time, such as the rise time of the loading. Figure 2-10 provides an example of creep crack growth and creep/fatigue crack growth data. The data is for 1 Cr Mo steel 1000F (538C). The left-hand part of the figure is for creep crack growth (i.e. no load cycling), and the right-hand part of the figure is for cyclic loading with various hold times. The line in the figure is best fit to the data and corresponds to Cc = 0.0246 and q = 0.825 in Equation 2-21. (The value of Cc is for Ct(ave) in kips/inch-hour and 5 2 crack growth rates in inches per hour, 1 kip/inch-hour = 1.75x10 J/m -hr). There is a considerable amount of scatter observed in Figure 2-10, which suggests the usefulness of a probabilistic approach.
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EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
Figure 2-10 Creep and Creep/Fatigue Crack Growth Data and Fits. Left Figure Is for Constant Load and Right Figure Is for Cyclic Load With Various Hold Times [From Grunloh 92].
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2.3
Two simple problems are presented to serve as demonstration of the procedures involved in life prediction. The problems in this section are deterministic. Their probabilistic counterparts are included in Section 4.2. 2.3.1 Fatigue of a Crack in a Large Plate Consider a through crack in a large plate, such as shown in Figure 2-7. The initial half-crack length is ao, and the plate is subject to a stress that cycles between 0 and . Hence the cyclic stress intensity factor is given by the expression K = a
Eq. 2-24
The fatigue crack growth relation is the Paris relation of Equation 2-18. Failure occurs when the maximum applied stress intensity factor is equal to the critical value, KIc. The critical crack size, ac, is 1 K Ic ac =
LM OP N Q
Eq. 2-25]
A differential equation for the crack length as a function of the number of fatigue cycles is obtained by inserting the relation for K into the Paris relation for crack growth rate. da = C f K m = C f a dN
m
= C f m m / 2 a m / 2
This equation can be solved by separating variables and integrating, thereby providing the following end result for the cycles to failure, Nf, for a given initial crack size ao. Nf = 1
m 2 Cf 2
m/ 2
LM Na
1
( m 2 )/ 2 o
1 ac
( m 2 )/ 2
OP Q
Eq. 2-26
As an example of the above relations, Figure 2-11 is a plot of a vs N for a of 20 ksi (137.9 MPa), an initial crack half-length of 0.050 inches (1.27 mm), and Cf and m for the room temperature line in Figure 2-9. The results of Figure 2-11 are fairly typical of fatigue crack growth problems with initial cracks that are quite small; not much happens for a long period, but once the crack starts to grow appreciably, it quickly becomes long. Also, the cycles to failure are not strongly influenced by the critical crack size if the initial size is small. If the critical crack size is larger than about 4 inches (100 mm), then the cycles to failure is nearly 1,300,000, independent of critical crack size. This is a consequence of the nearly vertical slope of the line in Figure 2-11 as a exceeds about 2 inches (50 mm). 2-18
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
Figure 2-11 Half-Crack Length as a Function of the Number of Cycles to 20 ksi (137.9 MPa) for Example Fatigue Problem
In most practical situations, a closed form expression can not be obtained for the crack size as a function of the number of cycles. Stress intensity factor solutions for realistic problems are more complex than in this example, so the integration can not be performed. Another complicating factor is that the fatigue crack growth relation is usually more complex than the Paris relation. The above example demonstrates the principles involved, but realistic problems usually require numerical procedures for computation of crack sizes and lifetimes. 2.3.2 Creep Damage in a Thinning Tube An example of creep rupture with wall thinning is presented as an example of creep life prediction. This example problem could be representative of a superheater/reheater tube, in which case the stresses are dominated by pressure and easily estimated. Consider a tube with constant internal pressure p, mean radius R, and a thickness that decreases with time according to h(t ) = ho t
Eq. 2-27
The stress strain rate relation is given by Equation 2-7 and the damage kinetics by Equation 2-8. Although the stress that controls creep rupture can be a combination of the principal stress, equivalent stress, and the hydrostatic stress, for this example consider the maximum principal stress to be governing. This is the hoop stress due to the pressure, which is given by
(t ) =
pR pR = h(t ) ho t
Eq. 2-28
Consider temperature to be fixed. The above equation can be used along with Equation 2-9 to obtain the time to failure. In general, numerical integration is necessary. As a simple example, if the curve fit in Figure 2-2 is taken to be a straight line, rather than the second order relation of 2-19
EPRI Licensed Material Review of Deterministic Life Prediction Procedures for Boiler Pressure Parts
Equation 2-4, then a closed form relation for the rupture time can be obtained. The following is a good linear representation of the data of Figure 2-2 for stresses less than 20 ksi (137.0 MPa) log = A B( LMP) = 6.615 1538 . x10 4 LMP
Eq. 2-29
Using the definition of LMP from Equation 2-3, this can be rearranged to give the following expression for the rupture time t R ( , T ) = 10 C + A /( BT ) 1/ BT
Eq. 2-30
= 1 / BT
C R = 10 C + A / BT t T = time for wall to thin to zero = h / pR o = hoop stress at initial thickness = ho t C = time for creep rupture at intial stress = 10 C + A / BT C R = / BT 1 o o
The time to rupture with wall thinning and creep damage is then obtained by using Equation 2-30 for the rupture time and Equation 2-28 for the stress in conjunction with Equation 2-9. Using the above definitions and grinding through the algebra leads to the following relation for the rupture time tR: tR = 1 tT
LM1 + ( 1) t OP t Q N
C T
1/( 1)
Eq. 2-31
As an example, consider a 2.125 inch (54 mm) diameter 1 Cr 1/2 Mo tube with a wall thickness of 0.4 inches (10.2 mm) operating at 1,000F (1,460R = 811.1K) and 2400 psi (16.55 MPa) pressure. Using the above definitions, the following values are obtained
-4 = 1/BT = 1/(1460x1.538x10 ) = 4.453
CR = 10-C+A/(BT) = 10-20+6.615/(1460x0.0001538) = 2.88x109 o = 2.4x1.0625/0.4 = 6.38 ksi (44.0 MPa) tC = 7.51x105 hours = 85.7 years
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Figure 2-12 provides a plot of the failure time for various wall thinning rates . It is seen that there is a strong interaction between the creep and thinning degradation mechanisms, because the failure time is much smaller than if only one mechanism is acting.
Figure 2-12 Time to Failure as a Function of the Wall-Thinning Rate for the Creep Rupture Example Problem (1 Mil/Year=25.4 m/yr)
In most practical situations, a closed form expression for the creep lifetime can not be obtained, because of more complex stress and temperature histories and more complex geometries. The stresses in the above example are statically determined, so the stress analysis is simple. In fact, creep strain and damage can result in large changes in stress in complex bodies, and detailed lifetime evaluations often require finite element computations. This simple example problem serves to show the principles involved. The above discussion provides examples of deterministic lifetime models. Although such models are available, results obtained in their application to real plant components are subject to many sources of uncertainty, including scatter in material properties, uncertainty in service conditions (pressure, temperature, etc.), and derivation of model constants from test data. Probabilistic models account for these uncertainties and scatter, and are discussed in Section 4, but first some statistical background information is provided in Section 3.
2-21
3
SOME STATISTICAL BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Some background information on statistics is provided in areas of particular interest in probabilistic structural analysis. No attempt is made to be comprehensive, and those familiar with statistics can proceed directly to Section 4. The following basic references are suggested for additional information [Ang 75, Ang 84, Ayyub 97, Hahn 67, Wolstenholme 99]
3.1
For a continuous random variable, x, the probability of x falling within a range of values is described by the probability density function, p(x). Mathematically, this is expressed as probability that x falls between x and x + dx = p( x )dx
Eq. 3-1
Various characteristics of random variables are of use, the most common ones being the mean (or average) and the standard deviation. If a set of x data is available, the mean is given by the expression 1 x= N
x
N i =1
Eq. 3-2
N i =1
1 ( xi x ) = N 1
2
LM x MN
N i =1
2 i
Nx
OP PQ
1/ 2
Eq. 3-3
The square of the standard deviation is called the variance. Sometime the N-1 in the denominator in Equation 3-3 is replaced by N. If N-1 is used, then the value of is called unbiased; if N=1 then is said to be biased. If N is large, it doesnt make much difference. The values of the mean and variance can be obtained from the probability density function (pdf) by use of the following x=
2 =
z z
xp( x )dx
Eq. 3-4
( x x ) 2 p( x )dx
3-1
The coefficient of variation, cov, is equal to the standard deviation divided by the mean, and is often referred to. The probability that x is less than some value is often also of interest. This is referred to as the cumulative distribution function and is denoted as P(x). The cumulative distribution function is obtained from the probability density function by the equation P( x) =
p( y )dy
Eq. 3-5
Since probabilities are always between 0 and 1, the maximum value of P(x) is 1 and Equation 3-5 implies that
p( x )dx = 1
The probability that x is greater than some value is also of interest. This is known by various names, usually the complementary cumulative distribution, and sometimes the reliability or survivor function. The complementary cumulative distribution is equal to one minus the cumulative distribution. The median of a random variable is also often of interest. This is the value that is exceeded with a 50-50 chance. Mathematically, this is expressed as 1 = 2
x50
p( x )dx or P( x50 ) =
1 2
Eq. 3-6
Another item of interest is the failure rate. This is the probability of failure between x and x+dx given that failure has not already occurred. This is also called the hazard function, h(x), and is related to the pdf and cumulative by the expression h( x ) = p( x ) 1 P( x )
Eq. 3-7
There are many different probability density functions. Just about any function that integrates to unity can be used as a pdf. The type of distribution to be used in a given situation can be selected based on fits to data, theoretical considerations, convenience, or personal taste. The most compelling reason is fits to data, if sufficient data is available. The most commonly used distribution is the normal, or Gaussian, distribution. Any random variable that is the sum of many other random variables is normally distributed, regardless of the distributions of the individual variables. This is a consequence of the central limit theorem. Table 3-1 summarizes several of the distributions most often encountered in probabilistic lifetime analysis. Their usefulness here is in describing the scatter or uncertainty in the variables entering into the lifetime model.
3-2
EPRI Licensed Material Some Statistical Background Information Table 3-1 Characteristics of Some Commonly Encountered Probability Functions Used to Describe Scatter and Uncertainty Probability Density Function Cumulative Distribution Function Range of Random Variable
Name uniform
Mean
Standard Deviation
Comments simplest
1 b 1 x/ e
1 e 2 ( x x )2 2 2
xa b 1 e
x/
a, a + b 0,
a+