Keeping Up Appearances in the Face of Uncertainty: North Korean Nuclear Diplomacy
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Alex Gershon0 Bewertungen0% fanden dieses Dokument nützlich (0 Abstimmungen)
25 Ansichten95 SeitenBeschreibung:
The purpose of this study is an attempt to understand the utilization of Nuclear
Diplomacy by North Korea as its main foreign policy since the First Nuclear Crisis in 1993. This thesis argues that Nuclear Diplomacy is employed by North Korea as a means
for the Kim regime to maintain power. In this study, the term “Nuclear Diplomacy” will not only be limited to nuclear weapons but also to other types of military weaponry that
have been utilized as a supplement to nuclear weapons by North Korea. Since the First Nuclear Crisis, North Korea has utilized Brinkmanship—the concept of constantly
tittering on the line of nuclear war—in an attempt to obtain economic and political concessions from the United States, South Korea, and various multilateral organizations
such as the Six-Party Talks. These concessions range from more palpable demands such as economic aid and assistance in building Light-Water Reactors for energy to more diplomatic centered requests such as high-level summit meetings with the United States. One reason behind pursuing this study is that the impending succession of Kim Jong Un recast North Korea’s nuclear capabilities into the global spotlight. In order to completely understand how to view North Korea’s actions surrounding this succession it is vital to accurately and exhaustively calculate the importance of said weapons to the North Korean state. Also, North Korea can roughly be utilized as a de facto representation of the contemporary threat posed by Nuclear Proliferation spreading to rogue states. This is important in International Relations for there is an unknown entity, Kim Jong Un, rising power in a rogue state, being North Korea, which posses a nuclear arsenal thereby dealing directly with the contemporary fears of Nuclear Proliferation.
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The purpose of this study is an attempt to understand the utilization of Nuclear
Diplomacy by North Korea as its main foreign policy since the First Nuclear Crisis in 1993. This thesis argues that Nuclear Diplomacy is employed by North Korea as a means
for the Kim regime to maintain power. In this study, the term “Nuclear Diplomacy” will not only be limited to nuclear weapons but also to other types of military weaponry that
have been utilized as a supplement to nuclear weapons by North Korea. Since the First Nuclear Crisis, North Korea has utilized Brinkmanship—the concept of constantly
tittering on the line of nuclear war—in an attempt to obtain economic and political concessions from the United States, South Korea, and various multilateral organizations
such as the Six-Party Talks. These concessions range from more palpable demands such as economic aid and assistance in building Light-Water Reactors for energy to more diplomatic centered requests such as high-level summit meetings with the United States. One reason behind pursuing this study is that the impending succession of Kim Jong Un recast North Korea’s nuclear capabilities into the global spotlight. In order to completely understand how to view North Korea’s actions surrounding this succession it is vital to accurately and exhaustively calculate the importance of said weapons to the North Korean state. Also, North Korea can roughly be utilized as a de facto representation of the contemporary threat posed by Nuclear Proliferation spreading to rogue states. This is important in International Relations for there is an unknown entity, Kim Jong Un, rising power in a rogue state, being North Korea, which posses a nuclear arsenal thereby dealing directly with the contemporary fears of Nuclear Proliferation.
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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Als DOC, PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
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25 Ansichten95 SeitenKeeping Up Appearances in the Face of Uncertainty: North Korean Nuclear Diplomacy
Hochgeladen von
Alex GershonBeschreibung:
The purpose of this study is an attempt to understand the utilization of Nuclear
Diplomacy by North Korea as its main foreign policy since the First Nuclear Crisis in 1993. This thesis argues that Nuclear Diplomacy is employed by North Korea as a means
for the Kim regime to maintain power. In this study, the term “Nuclear Diplomacy” will not only be limited to nuclear weapons but also to other types of military weaponry that
have been utilized as a supplement to nuclear weapons by North Korea. Since the First Nuclear Crisis, North Korea has utilized Brinkmanship—the concept of constantly
tittering on the line of nuclear war—in an attempt to obtain economic and political concessions from the United States, South Korea, and various multilateral organizations
such as the Six-Party Talks. These concessions range from more palpable demands such as economic aid and assistance in building Light-Water Reactors for energy to more diplomatic centered requests such as high-level summit meetings with the United States. One reason behind pursuing this study is that the impending succession of Kim Jong Un recast North Korea’s nuclear capabilities into the global spotlight. In order to completely understand how to view North Korea’s actions surrounding this succession it is vital to accurately and exhaustively calculate the importance of said weapons to the North Korean state. Also, North Korea can roughly be utilized as a de facto representation of the contemporary threat posed by Nuclear Proliferation spreading to rogue states. This is important in International Relations for there is an unknown entity, Kim Jong Un, rising power in a rogue state, being North Korea, which posses a nuclear arsenal thereby dealing directly with the contemporary fears of Nuclear Proliferation.
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Keeping Up Appearances In The Face of Uncertainty: North Korean Nuclear Diplomacy
Alexander G. Gershon A Thesis In International elations
Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Arts 2011 BA in International Relations
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!"ignature# "u$ervisor of %hesis
%a&le 'f (ontents
List of Abbreviations 2 Abstract ) !hapter ": Introduction Introduction * , -ethodology 1* Research .oals 1/ 11 !hapter #: $hat Do $e Kno%& %heoretical Frame2or3 14 Research Design 2) 5iterature Revie2 2, 'rgani0ation of %hesis Research +uestions
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!hapter ': A Glance into the (ermit Kingdom Internal "tructure )4 67ternal 8ie2s )9 Chinese-North Korean Relations *0 South Korean-North Korean Relations ** United States-North Korean Relations *4 !hapter ): The *ix +arty Tal,s A Brief Introduction into the "i7 Party %al3s *9 %he Fifth Round of the "i7 Party %al3s /2 The End of the Fourth RoundA Precursor to Trouble Se te!ber "#th $oint State!ent%&ssue of Li'ht (ater Reactors /1 %he Fifth Round: Phase I /9 A (hole Lot )f Nothin' /9
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An Eventful *ear 10 Not *our T+ ical ,th of $ul+ Fire-or.s Sho1) )ctober Nuclear Test 11 A /olte-Face0 The Chan'in' US Polic+ A ro os of North Korea 40 %he Fifth Round: Phase II 41 %he Fifth Round: Phase III 4* !hapter -: !onclusion ;hat ;e <ave 5earned 41 Im$ortance of %his "tudy to International Relations 4, =eed for -ore Research ,0 %he Future ,1 (or.s Cited ,*
.ershon /
A&&reviations
BDA DPR> <6U <F' IA6A I(B>(=A >6D' >PA 5;R -FA => =P% "P% U= U="( U""R ;-D ;P> Banco Delta Asia Democratic Peo$le?s Re$u&lic of >orea <igh 6nriched Uranium <eavy Fuel 'il International Atomic 6nergy Agency Intercontinental Ballistic -issile >orea (entral =e2s Agency >orean Peninsula 6nergy Develo$ment 'rgani0ation >orean Peo$le?s Army 5ight 2ater Reactor -inistry of Foreign Affairs =orth >orea %reaty of =on Proliferation of =uclear ;ea$ons "i7 Party %al3s United =ations United =ations "ecurity (ouncil Union of "oviet "ocialist Re$u&lics ;ea$ons of -ass D estruction ;or3ers? Party of >orea
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A.stract
%he $ur$ose of this study is an attem$t to understand the utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy &y =orth >orea as its main foreign $olicy since the First =uclear (risis1 in 199)@ %his thesis argues that =uclear Di$lomacy is em$loyed &y =orth >orea as a means for the >im regime to maintain $o2er@ In this studyA the term B=uclear Di$lomacyC 2ill not only &e limited to nuclear 2ea$ons &ut also to other ty$es of military 2ea$onry that have &een utili0ed as a su$$lement to nuclear 2ea$ons &y =orth >orea@2 "ince the First =uclear (risisA =orth >orea has utili0ed Brin3manshi$Dthe conce$t of constantly tittering on the line of nuclear 2arDin an attem$t to o&tain economic and $olitical concessions from the United "tatesA "outh >oreaA and various multilateral organi0ations such as the "i7 Party %al3s@ %hese concessions range from more $al$a&le demands such as economic aid and assistance in &uilding 5ight ;ater Reactors for energy to more di$lomatic centered requests such as high level summit meetings 2ith the United "tates@ 'ne reason &ehind $ursuing this study is that the im$ending succession of >im Eong Un recast =orth >orea?s nuclear ca$a&ilities into the glo&al s$otlight@ In order to com$letely understand ho2 to vie2 =orth >orea?s actions surrounding this succession it is vital to accurately and e7haustively calculate the im$ortance of said 2ea$ons to the =orth >orean state@ AlsoA =orth >orea can roughly &e utili0ed as a de facto re$resentation of the contem$orary threat $osed &y =uclear Proliferation s$reading to rogue states@ %his is im$ortant in International Relations for there is an un3no2n entityA >im Eong UnA rising to $o2er in a rogue stateA &eing =orth >oreaA 2hich $osses a nuclear arsenal there&y
1
%he First =uclear (risis descri&es a &rief eighty nine day $eriod from 199) 199* 2hen =orth >orea 2ithdre2 from the =P% and declared its intention to nucleari0e@ It 2ill &e e7tra$olated u$on later on in this thesis@ 2 %his includes missile launchesA naval confrontationA and threatening di$lomatic overtures 2hich 2ill all &e encom$assed &y the term BBrin3manshi$C@
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dealing directly 2ith the contem$orary fears of =uclear Proliferation@
!hapter I: The Introduction
'n %uesdayA =ovem&er 2)A 2010A the "outh >orean island of Feon$yeongA in =ortheast >oreaA 2as heavily shelled &y the Democratic Peo$le?s Re$u&lic of >orea !henceforth 3no2n as =orth >orea# in res$onse to live fire "outhern military drills that 2ere occurring on the island@) %2o days laterA the &eleaguered "outh >orean Defense -inister resigned amidst a storm of controversy surrounding the halfhearted "outh >orean res$onse to this attac3@* 'n $ar 2ith $rior events in the regionA the United "tates rehashed its $romise to stand &ehind "outh >orea 2hile (hina attem$ted to assuage the situation so as to mitigate the international res$onse against =orth >orea@ %he consistent involvement of these t2o su$er$o2ers only escalates the an7iety on a $eninsula that has &een a &oiler of tension for the $ast half century@ %he actions of =orth >oreaA 2hile a$$earing a&normal to the casual o&serverA follo2 a calculated &lue$rint set forth since the ince$tion of =orth >orea?s foreign $olicy of =uclear Di$lomacy@ %he elements $resent in this study are of great im$ortance to the contem$orary International Relations 0eitgeist@ First is the issue of =uclear Proliferation 2hich has a tectonic affect in the contem$orary IR $aradigm 2or3ing its 2ay into the rhetoric of $olicyma3ers and 2orld leaders ali3e@ From the fear of non state actors acquiring nuclear 2ea$ons to the =e2 "%AR% treaty &et2een the United "tates and RussiaA =uclear Proliferation su&sumes a large $ortion of contem$orary international security@ =orth >orea is not only a rogue state $ossessing nuclear ca$a&ilities &ut is 3no2n to have sold
3
B= >orea 2arns region on &rin3 of 2ar after more artillery fire heardAC $a an No-A =ovem&er 21A 2010A htt$GHH222@Ia$antoday@comHcategoryH2orldHvie2Hartillery fire heard on yeon$yeong island@ 4 Eac3 >imA B"outh >orea Defense -inister +uits After Attac3CA ReutersA =ovem&er 2/A 2010A htt$GHH222@reuters@comHarticleHidU"5)61-=0"+2010112/@
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these 2ea$ons to various nefarious countries including "yriaDa &reeding ground of terrorist activity@/ AdditionallyA the $ossi&le colla$se of =orth >orea 2ould lead to the $ossession of their nuclear arsenal &y either a rogue military figure or a non state actorD &oth of 2hich are quite trou&lesome to contem$orary $olicy ma3ers@ "econdlyA the conce$t of a unified >orean PeninsulaA 2hich could result if =uclear Di$lomacy is &eing utili0ed as a last ditch effort for the survival of the current =orth >orean regimeA is something that 2ould com$letely change the $o2er dynamic in the 6ast Asian region@ If this occurredA (hinaA reali0ing its 2orst fearA 2ould have a unifiedA $ro ;est >orea directly on its &orderDseverely altering its future actions in the region and challenging its attem$ts at regional hegemonic rule@ %he colla$se of the =orth >orean regime 2ould also lead to a mass e7odus of thousands u$on thousands of severely malnourishedA im$overished =orth >oreans into &oth (hina and "outh >orea@ %his 2ould $ut a severe financial strain on &oth economies as they attem$ted to handle this increase in $o$ulation@1 %hirdly is the im$ortance of "outh >orea to the United "tates@ "outh >oreaA on numerous occasionsA has &een given the full &ac3ing of the United "tates? military in any situation that might arise on the $eninsula@ %he involvement of the United "tates on the >orean Peninsula has more than once dra2n the ire of (hina 2ho vie2s the United "tates
(olum 5ynchA B=orth >orea Accused of 8iolating U@=@ "anctions on =uclear 2ea$ons %radeAC Forei'n Polic+A =ovem&er 9A 2010A htt$GHHturtle&ay@foreign$olicy@comH$ostsH2010H11H09HnorthJ3oreaJaccusedJofJviolatingJunJsanctionsJonJn uclearJ2ea$onsJtrade@ 6 IncidentallyA last year 5ee -yung &a3A the current Prime -inster of >oreaA $ro$osed a unification ta7 Iust incase this scenario occurred 2hich sho2s its im$ortance in the greater conte7t of International Relations@ !"ourceG Eennifer 5indA B%he 'nce and Future >imG "uccession and "tasis in =orth >oreaAC Forei'n AffairsA 'cto&er 2/A 2010A htt$GHH222@foreignaffairs@comHarticlesH11,40H&y Iennifer lindHthe once and future 3imK$ageLsho2@#@
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as an un2elcomed visitor in their s$here of influence@4 Any conflict that 2ould em&roil the $eninsula 2ould involve &oth the United "tates and (hinaD&urgeoning the chances of it turning into a glo&al conflict@ %his ma3es =orth >orea relevant to the United "tates and (hina for it is the main varia&le that could lead to a $hysical confrontation &et2een the 2orld?s t2o su$er$o2ersDsomething that neither of them 2ant@ FourthlyA the im$ending succession of little 3no2n and untested >im Eong Un as the leader of the ;or3ers? Party of >orea, only furthers the volatility of the situation for there are no2 internal murmurs of a $o2er struggle for control of =orth >orea and its nuclear arsenal@9 In order to quell such dissentA >im Eong Un must solidify his hold on $o2er through an e7ternal sho2 of force 2hich might e7$lain the recent attac3s on Feon$yeong Island@10 If this attac3 is a $rognosticator for future actions &y the =orth >orean regime under >im Eong Un?s rule then it a$$ears as if the B-ilitary FirstC 11 $olicy created under >im Eong Il 2ill continueDadding another dimension to the =orth >orean threat@ %his is relevant to the field of International Relations for =orth >orea?s B-ilitary FirstC $olicy is one of the main $illars &ehind its utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy and &uttresses their nuclear threat@ 5astlyA the (old ;ar is still officially occurring on the >orean Peninsula &ecause
7
BU@"@ (arrier "tri3e .rou$ 6m&ar3s for the Fello2 "eaAC StratforA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHH222@stratfor@comHmem&ershi$sH14111/HanalysisH2010112*JusJcarrierJstri3eJgrou$Jem&ar3sJyello 2Jsea@ 8 %he only $olitical $arty in =orth >orea 9 @ Ro&ert (arlin and Eoel ;itA B "i7 -ysteries of =orth >orea?s "uccession DramaCA Forei'n Polic+A "e$tem&er 1)A 2010A htt$GHH222@foreign$olicy@comHarticlesH2010H09H1)Hsi7JmysteriesJofJnorthJ3oreaJsJsuccessionJdramaK $ageL0A0@ 10 Andre2 "almonA B%heories a&ound on =@ >orea attac3AC CNNA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHHarticles@cnn@comH2010 11 2*H2orldHnorth@3orea@attac3@analysisJ1Jdefense minister 3im tae young $yongyang succession $rocessKJsLP-G;'R5D@ 11 =orth >orea?s B-ilitary FirstC $olicy of Son'un !# $rioriti0es the >orean Peo$leMs Army in the affairs of state and allocates national resources to the army first@
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the armistice that ended the >orean ;ar 2as never officially ratified into a $eace treaty@12 It is for this reason that >im Eong Il Iustifies 3ee$ing the >PA !>orean Peo$le?s Army# at constant military alertness@ 'ne minor miscommunication in such a constant state of vigilance is the difference &et2een relative $eace on the $eninsula and a full fledged 2ar 2hich 2ouldA most li3elyA lead to the mutual destruction of &oth =orth and "outh >orea and has the $ossi&ility of creating another 2orld 2ar@ I 2ill &e arguing that the >im regime utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy as a means to maintain $o2er through sta&ili0ing internal dissent 2hilst o&taining e7ternal concessions to aid their dila$idated infrastructure@
esearch /uestions
%he overall research question is 2hy has =orth >orea utili0ed =uclear Di$lomacy as its main international di$lomatic tool since 199*K %he su& questions are as follo2sG are =orth >orean $olitics as military oriented as they a$$earK Is =orth >orea a&le to act rationally in the conte7t of nuclear $roliferationK ;hat is the im$ortance of a nuclear arsenal to =orth >orea and is it more com$le7 than for mere $o2er gainsK ;hy does =orth >orea vie2 multilateral organi0ations as an affront to their sovereigntyK ;hy is the United "tates vie2ed 2ith the u$most im$ortance to =orth >oreaK <o2 does >im Eong Il utili0e nuclear 2ea$ons to solidify his hold on $o2er and continue his su&Iugation of the =orth >orean $eo$leK I argue that =orth >orean $olitics are as military orientated as they a$$ear@ %his stems from the internal structure of =orth >orea &eing &ased off of >im Eong Il?s B-ilitary FirstC $olicy 2hich is utili0ed to maintain the conce$t of the ever $resent
12
@ .lyn Ford and "oyoung >2onA North Korea on the 1rin.0 Stru''le for Survival !5ondonG Pluto PressA 200,#A *)@
.ershon 11
outside threat $osed &y the United "tates@ If this threat is ta3en a2ayA 2hich means an alleviation of this em$hasis u$on the militaryA then the cri$$ling environment in 2hich the =orth >orean $eo$le live &ecomes overtly a$$arent@ =orth >orea is a&le to act rationally1) in the conte7t of =uclear Proliferation in the sense that they 2ill never launch a nuclear 2arhead unless fired u$on first@ %he reason for this is that the function of the nuclear 2ea$on to =orth >orea is as a device to o&tain concessions from foreign $o2ers as 2ell as a means to u$hold the aforementioned conce$t of the omni$otent outside threat Dfiring a =uclear 2ea$on 2ould lead to the loss of 3ey di$lomatic tool@ %he United "tates is vie2ed as the main enemy of =orth >orea $artially stemming from their im$ortance on the 2orld stage and role in the >orean ;ar: it is the Io& of the >im regime to confront them as to $rotect the security of the =orth >orean $eo$le@ %he United "tates is also an economic su$er$o2er and has &een a maIor contri&utor of aid to the =orth >orean regime since the end of the >orean ;ar@ %his is of im$ortance for the >im regime cannot merely acce$t this aid for the image of the villainous American 2ould quic3ly unravel@ InsteadA it must utili0e acts of &ra0en $hysical force against the United "tates so it a$$earsA at least to the $eo$le of =orth >oreaA that America is $roviding =orth >orea 2ith concessions deriving from their fear of the =orth >orean state@ 5astlyA nuclear 2ea$ons are used &y the >im regime to continue their hold on $o2er and their su&Iugation of the =orth >orean $eo$le@ %hese 2ea$ons &olster the conce$t of the ever $resent outside threat &y ma3ing it tangi&le through their $hysical $resence@ %he regime constructs this image of the >im regime as the final &arrier &et2een the (a$italist ;est
13
Before e7$laining =orth >orea?s rationality it is im$ortant to first $lace a disclaimer u$on this discussion for the term BrationalityC is a &y0antine conce$t 2ith $rofuse amounts of literature $resent e7tra$olating on its true definition@ For this $a$erA the term rational 2ill &e the a&ility to consistently act in one?s &est interest@ ;hile this might a$$ear too a&stractA it is im$ortant that it remains in such a state to avoid an ontological discussion of its meaning@
.ershon 12
and total domination of =orth >orea andA through thisA u$holds the falsehood of the >orean $eo$le needing the leadershi$ of the >ims@ %hese questions arise through a duality of analysisG one of the current literature on =orth >orea?s use of =uclear Di$lomacy and the other an amalgamation of real 2orld events@ ;ith regards to contem$orary literature on =orth >oreaA the questions derive out of a$$lying the structural lens of B"u&versive RealismC1* to the a$$lica&le literature@ "u&versive Realism is an amalgamation of (lassical RealismA (onstructivismA and Post "tructuralism 2hich 2ill &e discussedA in de$thA in the $roceeding cha$ter@1/ %he "u&versive Realist theory 2as utili0ed to discover issues that arose out of the literature surveyed for this study@ %hese issues ranged from not fully e7tra$olating on to$ics deemed germane to the thesis or misinter$reting data &y utili0ing erroneous assum$tions@ %he real 2orld events from 2hich the questions arise are chronologically set from 199) to the contem$orary era@ %he First =uclear (risis !199) 199*# laid the foundation for =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy as its eighty nine day 2ithdra2al from the =uclear =on Proliferation %reaty set actions in motion that 2ould sha$e the future of =orth >orea?s foreign $olicy@11 ;hile this crisis ended $eacefully through the 199* Agreed Frame2or314 signed alongside the United "tatesA =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy and its su&sidiary of Brin3manshi$ 2ould &ecome their !odus
14 15
"u&versive Realism is a theory that 2as created &y the author@ =ote that for the remainder of this $a$er the terms (lassical Realism and Realism 2ill &e used interchangea&ly@ 16 .lyn Ford and "oyoung >2onA North Korea on the 1rin.0 A Stru''le for Survival !Ann Ar&orG Pluto PressA 200,#A 1/0@ 17 %his 2as an agreement &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea that 2as signed on 'cto&er 21A 199*@ %he aim of this agreement 2as free0ing and re$lacing =orth >oreaMs indigenous nuclear $o2er $lant $rogram 2ith 5ight ;ater Reactors !2hich are less $rone to nuclear $roliferation# 2hile normali0ing relations &et2een the t2o countries@ %his agreement 2as constantly &eleaguered &y em$ty $olitical rhetoric and di$lomatic strong handing and 2as never fully u$held@ It eventually com$letely dissolved around 200)@
.ershon 1)
o erandi 2hen securing international concessions@1, 'ther events that follo2 along this $attern that hel$ed generate the research questions for this study include the 2002 ;est "ea Incident19A the First and "econd =uclear %ests !2001A 2009#A and the "i7 Party %al3s !200) 2009#Dthe maIority of 2hich 2ill &e e7tra$olated u$on in the later cha$ters of this study@20 %he aforementioned questions can &e ans2ered through loo3ing at &oth the internal and e7ternal dynamic of =orth >orea@ InternallyA one must loo3 at the dire economic situationA the im$ortance of the military in the sustaina&ility of the regimeA and the $ersonality cult21 surrounding the >ims@ 67ternallyA one must analy0e the ever changing dynamic &et2een =orth >oreaA "outh >oreaA and the United "tates 2hile also not underestimating the im$ortance of a (hinese ally@ %his last $ointA regarding (hinaA is $ertinent to the survival of the =orth >orean regime and has &ecome a $oint of contention 2ith the recent release of classified United "tates documents that sho2 ho2 (hina might &e losing control over =orth >orea@22 ;hile these documents have lead certain academics to &elieve the (hinese =orth >orean relationshi$ is falling a$artA as 2ill &e sho2n later onA their relationshi$ is as strong as ever@
18
Bruce 6@ BechtolA Red Ro'ue0 The Persistent Challen'e of North Korea !DullesG Potomac Boo3sA IncA 2004#A 1*@ 19 'n Eune 2,A 2002A during the closing days of the 2002 ;orld (u$ !co hosted &y "outh >orea#A t2o =orth >orean =avy $atrol &oats crossed the =orthern 5imit 5ine !an ar&itrary line demarcating =orth and "outh >orean in the ;est "ea# and o$ened fire as "outh >orean =avy shi$s a$$roached@ A miniature &attle ensued in 2hich one of the => shi$s 2as sun3A four "outh >orean sailors 2ere 3illedA and eighteen 2ounded@ !"ourceG B=orthern 5imit 5ine !=55# ;est "ea =aval 6ngagementsAC in 2lobal Securit+A htt$GHH222@glo&alsecurity@orgHmilitaryH2orldH2arHnll@htm@# 20 =arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 1/0@ 21 %his term 2ill &e e7tra$olated u$on later on in this thesis &ut I 2ill $rovide a &rief descri$tion of it here@ A $ersonality cult arises 2hen an individual uses mass media and $ro$aganda to create an ideali0ed and heroic $u&lic image@ %his is usually achieved through means such unquestioning flattery and $raise@ 22 (hris <oggA B;i3ilea3s ca&lesG (hina Nfrustrated? &y =orth >oreaCA 11CA =ovem&er )0A 2010A htt$GHH222@&&c@co@u3Hne2sH2orld us canada 11,411*1@
.ershon 1*
=uclear Di$lomacy is due to t2o main factorsG $olitical $o2er and economic des$air@ %his $olitical $o2er can &e vie2ed as &oth $o2er 2ithin the international community and $o2erA in a su&servient senseA over the =orth >orean $eo$le@ =orth >orea !read >im Eong Il# lusts to &e a maIor voice in the international community and reali0es thatA in order for that to ha$$enA =orth >orea must have something to offer that other countries need@ %he fact of the matter is that the =orth >orean infrastructure has atro$hied since the do2nfall of the "oviet Union and lac3s anything to offer and therefore has to rely on the $o2er and fearfulness of nuclear 2ea$ons to garner international clout@ ;ith regards to $o2er in the conte7t of the =orth >orean $eo$leA >im Eong Il utili0es fear as a means of maintaining the their su&servience to him and as a reason to $rolong his military first $olicy of Son'un !)@ Unli3e his fatherA 2ho had the military credentials to garner res$ectA >im Eong Il needed to $rove his legitimacy as the ruler of the =orth >orean $eo$le and sho2 them that they needed the $rotection his rule offered@ <e accom$lished this through his alienation of the rest of the 2orld !mainly the United "tates and "outh >orea# and the constant fear that these countries could attac3 =orth >orea at any given moment@ In order to ma3e this fear $al$a&leA >im Eong Il utili0es nuclear armament to sho2 the =orth >orean $eo$le that the outside threat is a serious matter@ %hrough this he is a&le to masquerade the o&vious suffering of the =orth >orean $eo$le and his $oor internal governance under the guise of utter tre$idation@ %he des$air arises out of the fact that =orth >orea lac3s infrastructure and a develo$ed economyDheavily relying on foreign aid Iust to function@ -any instances in 2hich =orth >orea has threatened 2ar have &een out of a not so su&tle need for economic aid@ %his includes monetary donationsA the construction of infrastructure !such
.ershon 1/
as 5ight ;ater Reactors for electricity#A and co$ious amounts of food@ %he =orth >orean regime cannot merely as3 for international aid for then the constructed image of the villainous outsiders unravels: it is for this reason that =orth >orea must utili0e =uclear Di$lomacy to o&tain this aid@ %hrough acting as if the aid is a concessionA something given u$ &y other sovereign institutions out of a fear of the =orth >orean stateA the >im regime can maintain their air of im$ortance and the vie2 of the 2ic3ed outsider@ AlsoA the sale of nuclear material to other states has $roven to &e an im$ortant source of income for the =orth >orean state@ It is their only real source of incomeA outside of economic aidA that they have@ %he nuclear 2ea$onry of =orth >orea is an im$ortant crutch that is holding u$ the ailing regime@ >im Eong Il uses the military and =uclear Di$lomacy to solidify his role as BDear 5eaderC and it currently a$$ears that the same methodology is &eing utili0ed to ease the transition from >im Eong Il to the mysterious and novice >im Eong Un@
0ethodology
%he methodology im$lemented in this study 2ill &e 'dell?s BDisci$lined Inter$retative (ase "tudyC 2ith the case study &eing the Fifth Round of the "i7 Party %al3s !henceforth 3no2n as the "P%# 2hich lasted from =ovem&er 200/ to Fe&ruary 2004 and involved =orth >oreaA "outh >oreaA Ea$anA (hinaA RussiaA and the United "tates@2) %he Disci$lined Inter$retive (ase "tudy Binter$rets or e7$lains an event &y a$$lying a 3no2n theory to the ne2 terrain@ %he more e7$licit and systematic the use of theoretical conce$tsA the more $o2erful the a$$lication@C2* It allo2s for the utili0ation of
23
Eohn "@ 'dellA B(ase "tudy -ethods in International Political 6conomyCA &nternational Studies Pers ectives 2 !2001#G 11) 11/@ 24 I&id@
.ershon 11
various $ers$ectives on the Fifth Round of the "P% to Bshar$enA refineA and contrast them 2hile 2or3ing 2ith them@C2/ %his design 2ill allo2 the im$lementation of the case centric theory of "u&versive Realism 2hich 2ill &e discussed in the $roceeding $ages of this thesis@ %he "P%A as an overly encom$assing conce$tA consisted of a sle2 of gatherings centered on security concerns regarding =orth >orea?s $ursuit of nuclear 2ea$onry@21 %he reasoning &ehind choosing this event as the case study for this analysis is that it enca$sulates an amalgamation of varia&les that sha$e =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy@ "ome of these varia&les include the utili0ation of threatening overtures 2ithin the international community to gain concessionsA occasionally using $hysical force to $rove their $ointA and e7$laining their actions as manifest from the threatening overtures of other countriesDmainly the United "tates@ In order to see ho2 one event or decision in the "P% lead to an outcomeA 'dell?s theory 2ill &e used alongside 8an 6vera?s conce$t of Process %racing@24 8an 6vera?s conce$t of Process %racing 2ill give a &etter understanding of ho2 events $rogress from $oint A to $oint B and 2ill allo2 for an analysis of all of the varia&les at $lay in the case study and see ho2 their interactions $roduce a varying array of results@ %his also allo2s the a&ility to &ranch out in the tracing of events@ Instead of &eing limited to the normal linear $rogression of A to BA Process %racing allo2s the accommodation of outliersD things that turn the linear $rocess into more of a 2e& li3e structure@ %his can
25 26
I&id@ (harles 5@ PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#A 1*1 112@ 27 "te$hen 8an 6veraA 2uide to 4ethods for Students of Political Science !IthacaG (ornell University PressA 1994#A 11@
.ershon 14
tremendously add to the dynamic value of the assessment occurring in this thesis@
esearch Goals
%he $ractical goal of this study is to $rovide a general frame2or3 to understand =uclear Di$lomacy as it a$$lies to =orth >orea@ %his requires ta3ing the case study utili0ed in the analysis and e7tra$olating u$on it in order to $roduce a tem$late that should &e a$$lica&le to any instance of =uclear Di$lomacy &y =orth >orea@ %he academic goals of this study center around understanding 2hy =orth >orea acts the 2ay that it does 2ithin the conte7t of the international community@ ;hy they constantly forgo $eaceful negotiations andA insteadA chose to turn the international community into a 0ero sum game@ Building u$on this is an inquiry as to if =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy has more de$th than it a$$ears to the casual o&serverHis $ortrayed in the ne2s@ %his can &e understood as an inquiry into 2hether =uclear Di$lomacy is the means to the end of this threatening overture that =orth >orea ta3es 2ith the international community or if there is more &eneath the surface that is not a$$arent from a cursory glance@ Eutting off of this is the intellectual goal of understanding 2hy =orth >orea vie2s multilateral organi0ations as an affront to their sovereignty@
1rgani2ation of the Thesis
%his thesis can &e &ro3en u$ into four sections that center around o&taining a &etter understanding of =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy and its im$ortance to the >im regime@ %he first section 2ill $rovide a &asic tem$late of the thesis 2hich includes the 5iterature Revie2A in 2hich the contem$orary literature on the su&Iect 2ill &e discussedA and the Research Design in 2hich the case study and the methodological a$$roach to this $a$er 2ill &e laid out@
.ershon 1,
%he second section 2ill consist of an e7$lanation of some fundamental conce$ts that are 3ey if one 2ants to underta3e the analysis of =orth >orea offered in this study@ %his 2ill include a discussion of the internal structure of =orth >orea and its relations 2ith the United "tatesA "outh >oreaA and (hina@ %he third section of this thesis 2ill center around the "P% and =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy during this time $eriod@ %his section 2ill $rovide an in de$th analysis of the Fifth Round of %al3s and 2illA thereforeA &e &ro3en u$ into three tem$oral categoriesG the events that occurred at the end of the Fourth Round !Euly "e$tem&er 200/# of %al3s that set the stage for the Fifth Round: the Fifth Round !=ovem&er 200/ Fe&ruary 2004#: and a &rief discussion regarding the end of the Fifth Round at the affect that it 2ould have on the eventually 2ithdra2al from the "P% &y =orth >orea in 2009@ %he final section of the $a$er 2ill &e the conclusion in 2hich the tem$late created in the $rior cha$ters 2ill &e a$$lied to the recent actions of =orth >orea to generate a &etter understanding of the events@ %hese events 2ill then &e e7tra$olated u$on in an attem$t to conIecture u$on 2hat they might tell a&out the future of =orth >orea@
!hapter #: $hat Do $e Kno%&
Theoretical Frame%or,
%he theoretical frame2or3 of this study encom$asses the theories of (onstructivism2,A Realism29A and Post "tructuralism)0@ %he amalgamation of these 2ill
28
(onstructivist thin3ers in the field of International Relations include Ale7ander ;endtA Eohn RugieA and >athyrn "i33in3@ 29 Realist thin3ers in the realm of International Relations include <ans -orgenthauA >enneth ;alt0A and Eohn -earsheimer@ 30 Post "tructuralist authors include -ichael FoucaultA Eacques DerridaA and Roland Barthes 2ho are
.ershon 19
hel$ $rove the argument of this thesis 2hich is that >im regime utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy as a means to maintain $o2er through sta&ili0ing internal dissent 2hilst o&taining e7ternal concessions to aid their dila$idated infrastructure@ %he utili0ation of (onstructivism is im$ortant 2hen dealing 2ith ho2 =orth >orea vie2s entities such as the "i7 Party %al3sA states such as the United "tates and "outh >oreaA and 2hen vie2ing the means &y 2hich the >im Regime maintains its legitimacy@ Unli3e >im Il "ungA 2ho 2as a revolutionary that fought against the Ea$anese in -anchuriaA neither >im Eong Il nor >im Eong Un have military e7$erience on their resume@)1 From a sociological stand$ointA this $resents a maIor hindrance on the legitimacy of their rule for they do not have this $ersonality of a fearlessA nationalistic leader that formulated around >im Il "ung@ ;hat is necessary for the ruler of an autocratic regime is the develo$ment of a cult of $ersonality centered around the ruler &ased off of 2hat sociologist -a7 ;e&er descri&ed as charismatic authority@)2 For >im Il "ungA this 2as sim$le for his actions during ;;II and the >orean ;ar 2ere enough to solidify his cult@ %he $ro&lem that =orth >orea faces 2ith >im Eong Il and >im Eong Un is that they had to routini0e this charisma so that they are vie2ed in the same light as >im Il "ung@))%he $ro$aganda machine in =orth >orea turns adoration and veneration for their leaders into a $ersonality cult ma3ing the leaders demigods@ An e7am$le of this is ho2 >im Il "ung is still
vie2ed as the three founding mem&ers of Post "tructuralism@ 31 .lyn Ford and "oyoung >2onA North Korea on the 1rin.0 A Stru''le for Survival !Ann Ar&orG Pluto PressA 200,#A 2*@ 32 -a7 ;e&er originally defined it as BOresting on devotion to the e7ce$tional sanctityA heroism or e7em$lary character of an individual $ersonA and of the normative $atterns or order revealed or ordained &y him@O "ince his original descri$tion of this term it has &ecome &astardi0ed into the sense that it is utili0ed todayD&eing charisma@ !"ourceG -a7 ;e&erA The Theor+ )f Social And Econo!ic )r'ani<ation !=e2 For3G Free PressA 1994#@# 33 =o one 2ill ever &e as idoli0ed in =orth >orea as >im Il "ung currently is@ It has &een said that many mem&ers of the =orth >orean $o$ulation 2ill &egin to Ioyfully cry 2hen discussing the im$ortance of >im Il "ung to =orth >orea@
.ershon 20
considered the B6ternal PresidentC des$ite his death nearly si7teen years ago@)* In order to com$letely understand ho2 =orth >orea maintains this sense of a $ersonality cult amongst its $eo$le and the means &y 2hich it accom$lishes thisA 2hich include the demoni0ation of the ;estA one must utili0e the (onstructivist lens@ %he fallacy of solely utili0ing (onstructivism is that it does not account for the im$ortance of military $o2erA 0ero sum gameA and securityDall of 2hich are varia&les that are 3ey to fully understanding =orth >orea@ Realism $rovides an e7cellent analysis of these varia&les: it can &e utili0ed to understand a maIority of =orth >orea?s actions on the international stage as 2ell as hel$ing to add some insight into the im$ortance of nuclear 2ea$ons to =orth >orea@ It can also hel$ e7tra$olate u$on the security dynamic in the =ortheast Asian region 2hich 2ill shed light u$on the actions of the United "tatesA "outh >oreaA and (hina in relation to =orth >orea@ A fallacy is solely utili0ing the Realist lens is that it cannot e7$lain ho2 legitimacy can &e a source of military $o2er 2hich is $ertinent to understanding =orth >oreaDthis can &e analy0ed utili0ing (onstructivism@ Post "tructuralism 2ill &e utili0ed to com&ine the theories of Realism and (onstructivism@ %he $ro&lem 2ith Post "tructuralist theory is that it is too esoteric in nature to &e a&le to &e a main theory in this research@ ;hile Realism and (onstructivism are mainstream theories in International RelationsA there&y not needing a cursory e7$lanation of 2hat they entailA Post "tructuralism is not normally utili0ed in the International Relations rhetoric requiring a &rief e7$lanation of the theory and 2hat it entails@
34
.lyn Ford and "oyoung >2onA North Korea on the 1rin.0 A Stru''le for Survival !Ann Ar&orG Pluto PressA 200,#A 2*@
.ershon 21
Post "tructuralismA instead of treating the $roduction of 3no2ledge as sim$ly a cognitive matterA treats it as a normative and $olitical matter@)/ It states that $o2er and 3no2ledge are mutually su$$ortive matters: that $o2er sha$es 3no2ledge and 3no2ledge sha$es $o2er@ '&Iectivity in 3no2ledge does not e7ist for all 3no2ledge is sha$ed through the $o2er dynamicDhistory is 2ritten &y the victor@ Post "tructuralism concerns itself 2ith counter historiesA Be7$osPingQ the $rocess of e7clusion and covering 2hich ma3e $ossi&le the teleological idea of history as a unified story unfolding 2ith a clear &eginningA middleA and end@C)1 As e7am$le of thisA $ertinent to this studyA is Roland Blei3er?s 5ivided Korea 0 To-ard a Culture of Reconciliation 2hich utili0es this conce$t of $o2er sha$ing 3no2ledge to understand the roots of the conflict on the >orean Peninsula and to recommend $olicy o$tions to2ards a more $eaceful future in =orth and "outh >orean relations@)4 %oo fe2 authors and $olicy ma3ers engage 2ith this sense of a counter history 2hen dealing 2ith =orth >orea 2hich &ecomes a glaring issue 2hen formulation $olicy recommendations and attem$ting to e7$lain 2hy =orth >orea has acted the 2ay that it does@ %he means &y 2hich this $a$er 2ill attem$t to achieve this counter historyA in regards to =orth >oreaA is through the utili0ation of t2o of Post "tructuralism?s founding $illarsDDeconstruction and Dou&le Reading@ Deconstruction is Ba general mode of radically unsettling 2hat are ta3en to &e sta&le conce$ts and conce$tual o$$ositions@ Its main $oint is to demonstrate the effects and costs $roduced &y the settled conce$ts and
35
"cott BurchillA Richard Deveta3A Eac3 DonnellyA Andre2 5in3laterA %erry =ardinA -atthe2 PatersonA (hristian Reus "mitA and Eacqui %rueA Theories of &nternational RelationsA Fourth ed !=e2 For3G Palgrave -acmillanA 2009#A 1,*@ 36 I&id@A 1,/@ 37 Roland Blei3erA 5ivided Korea0 To-ard a Culture of Reconciliation !-innea$olis G University of -innesota PressA 200/#@
.ershon 22
o$$ositionsA to disclose the $arasitical relationshi$ &et2een o$$osed terms and to attem$t a dis$lacement of them@C), (once$tual o$$ositions are never neutralA they are inevita&ly hierarchicalA and Deconstruction loo3s for this hierarchical structure@ It is $articularly concerned 2ith locating the elements of insta&ility that ineradica&ly threaten any totality@)9 It?s concerned 2ith &oth Bthe construction and deconstruction of any totalityA 2hether a te7tA theoryA discourseA structureCA etc@*0 Dou&le Reading is the means &y 2hich Deconstruction is achieved: the $rocess &y 2hich a Dou&le Reading occurs is through the reading of a 2or3 t2ice over@ %he first reading is Ba commentary or re$etition of the dominant inter$retationDthis isA a reading 2hich demonstrates ho2 a te7tA discourse or institution achieves the sta&ility effect@C*1 %he $oint here is to search for ho2 the te7t is coherent and consistent 2ith itselfDit attem$ts to ela&orate on ho2 the identity of the te7t is constituted@ %he second reading attem$ts to unsettle the discoveries of the first reading &y Ba$$lying $ressure to those $oints of insta&ility 2ithin a te7t@@@C*2 It e7$oses the internal tensions and ho2 they are incom$letely covered over in the te7t@ %he te7t is never totally at one 2ith itself: it al2ays carries 2ithin it elements of tension and crisis 2hich render the entirety of the document unsta&le@*) %he tas3 of Dou&le Reading as a mode of Deconstruction is an attem$t to understand ho2 Ba discourse or social institution is assem&led or $ut togetherA &ut at the
38 39
I&id@A 191@ I&id@A 192@ 40 I&id@A 192@ 41 I&id@A 192@ 42 I&id@A 192@ 43 I&id@A 192@
.ershon 2)
same time to sho2 ho2 it is al2ays already threatened 2ith its undoing@C** It is not the intention of DeconstructionHDou&le Reading to arrive at a singleA conclusive readingDthe tension creating &y this duality of readings is something that is omni$resent@ %he $oint of this e7ercise is to Be7$ose ho2 any story de$ends on the re$ression of internal tensions in order to $roduce a sta&le effect of homogeneity and continuity@C*/ %he im$ortance of Dou&le Reading and Deconstruction in the greater conte7t of Post "tructuralism as it a$$lies to this thesis is that it is a means to ci$her out the &iases innately $laced in the literature on =orth >orea@ -uch of the literature on =orth >orea 2ill only attem$t to convey a single $oint andA through the utili0ation of these $illars of Post "tructuralismA the undercurrent that it attem$ts to cover u$ 2ill &e hashed out@ In the greater 2holeA Post "tructuralism allo2s an analysis of the im$ortance of the =orth >orean regime and its $romulgation of $ro$aganda conveyed as 3no2ledge to its $eo$le@ It sho2s ho2 the =orth >orea $o2er structure controls the 3no2ledge of the =orth >orean $eo$leDthere&y controlling them and &eing a&le to indoctrinate them to 2hatever cause they 2ant@ %his theory also allo2s one to loo3 at mutual relationshi$s@ %oo often than notA scholars merely loo3 at ho2 =orth >orean $olicy affects the United "tates and other great $o2ers as o$$osed to this &eing a reci$rocal affect: the utili0ation of Post "tructuralism 2ill allo2 for this mutuality to &e studied@ Instead of continually having to rehash that the theory &eing utili0ed in this study as an amalgamation of RealismA (onstructivismA and Post "tructuralismA these theories 2ere com&ined into a ne2ly du&&ed theoryD"u&versive Realism@ %his theory is merely a conglomeration of the $revious three theories de$icted a&oveDthe unification of the
44 45
I&id@A 192@ I&id@A 19)@
.ershon 2*
strong $oints from all of these theories $rovides the most accurate chance at understanding =orth >orea?s actions in the conte7t of =uclear Di$lomacy@ %he $ro&lem 2ith utili0ing a ne2 theory is that it has &een untested andA thereforeA its validity is questiona&le@ %his can &e negated for t2o reasonsG authenticity of the varia&les and real 2orld error@ ;hile "u&versive Realism is a ne2ly defined theoryA it is a com&ination of authentic International Relations varia&les 2hich hel$ Iustify its legitimacy@ ;ith regards to the real 2orld errorA all IR theories run into the issue of a$$lica&ility in the real 2orld andA thereforeA this issue can &e negated for this theory is no different from any other theory $ostulated &y an academic scholar@ ;ith the methodology no2 in $laceA it is $ossi&le to e7$lain ho2 the study of =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy 2ill &e a$$roached@
esearch Design
%his thesis 2ill argue that the >im regime utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy as a means to maintain $o2er through sta&ili0ing internal dissent 2hilst o&taining e7ternal concessions to aid their dila$idated infrastructure@ As mentioned in the Introductory (ha$ter of this thesisA the em$irical testing ground for my thesis 2ill &e the utili0ation of a single case studyA the Fifth Round of the "i7 Party %al3sA as the event to 2hich I 2ill a$$ly 'dell?s Disci$lined Inter$retative (ase "tudy and 8an 6vera?s Process %racing@ A case study allo2s the testing of theories against real 2orld events to see 2hich $ortion!s# of the theories hold u$ 2hen $laced in the conte7t of reality: it $rovides a means to 2hich the hy$othesis can &e accurately tested@*1 ;ithout the utili0ation of a case study the thesis
46
"te$hen 8an 6veraA 2uide to 4ethods for Students of Political Science !IthacaG (ornell University PressA 1994#A 11@
.ershon 2/
is merely a meta$hysical gathering of a&stract thoughts that do not actually $rove or dis$rove anything grounded in reality@ %he reasoning &ehind the selection of the Fifth Round of the "i7 Party %al3s as the case study in this analysis arises from its tem$oral locationA the involvement of a multitude of countriesDall of 2hich $oses a different means in confronting the =orth >orea $ro&lemA and the fact that this $ortion of the "i7 Party %al3s has the most $recise instances of =uclear Di$lomacy and Brin3manshi$ 2hich 2ill &e of great assistance to this study@ 'n to$ of thisA there is an a&undance of literature from a 2ide range of academic sources on the Fifth Round of the "P% &ecause of the im$ortance of the events that occurred during its s$an@ %he case study &eing the Fifth Round of %al3s 2ill allo2 an analy0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy in the conte7t of the Euly /th missile launchesA the first =orth >orean nuclear testA and various other forms of Brin3manshi$ that s$anned this round of %al3s@*4 %he "i7 Party %al3sA as a 2holeA are im$ortant for the 2ay that they endedA 2ith =orth >orea storming offA refusing any future multilateral tal3sA and $erforming their "econd =uclear ;ea$ons %estA 2hich set the tone for the future international rhetoric of =orth >orea@*, %he Disci$lined Inter$retative (ase "tudyA alongside Process %racingA 2ill 2or3 alongside the im$lementation of "u&versive Realism in an attem$t to ci$her out ans2ers to the research questions $osed in the Introduction@ ;hat 2ill &e occurring 2ith the Disci$lined Inter$retive (ase "tudy is an attem$t to understand the use of =uclear Di$lomacy through the "P% &y a$$lying "u&versive RealismDa theory that has never &e
47
=arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 11)@ 48 -ar3 5andlerA B=orth >orea "ays It ;ill <alt %al3s and Restart Its =uclear ProgramCA Ne- *or. Ti!esA A$ril 1*A 2009A htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2009H0*H1/H2orldHasiaH1/3orea@htmlKJrL1@
.ershon 21
a$$lied to any study of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy@ <o2everA t2o issues arise from the utili0ation of the Disci$lined Inter$retative (ase "tudyG selective reconstruction and the fallacies of "u&versive Realism@ %he later of the t2o 2as hashed out in the $revious cha$ter so it is a non issue@ "elective reconstruction is the $ro&lem of su&liminally reconstructing an event so that it melds 2ith the study &eing conducted and the theories &eing a$$lied to it so that one arrives at a certain ans2er@*9 %he 2ay that this 2ill &e avoided is through a cogni0ant analysis of all events utili0ing Post "tructuralism?s Dou&le Reading 2hich 2ill force an avid study of every as$ect of the literature so as to not negate anything of im$ortance to the research@ Process %racing allo2s the &ac32ards tracing of the Bcausal $rocess that $roduces the case outcomeA at each stage inferring from the conte7t 2hat caused each cause@C/0 %he cause and effect lin3 that connects &oth the inde$endent varia&le and outcome is divided into smaller ste$s and then each ste$ is analy0ed for o&serva&le evidence@/1 %his methodology hel$s &rea3 do2n the "P% into individuali0ed segments and see ho2 some varia&les lead to one outcome in the "P% 2hile other varia&les lead to other outcomes@ %he research methods 2ill &e utili0ing $rimary and secondary sources to gather information@ Primary resources enca$sulate AmericanH"outh >orean ne2s$a$ersA s$eeches &y foreign di$lomatsA Iournal articles from esta&lished organi0ations such as Forei'n Polic+6 (orld AffairsA etc@A and official documents from the United "tates? .overnmentA the U=A and the "P%@ %he secondary sources 2ill come from &oo3sA Iournal
49
Eohn "@ 'dellA B(ase "tudy -ethods in International Political 6conomyCA &nternational Studies Pers ectives 2 !2001#G 11*@ 50 "te$hen 8an 6veraA 2uide to 4ethods for Students of Political Science !IthacaG (ornell University PressA 1994#A 11@ 51 I&id@A 1*@
.ershon 24
articlesA and intervie2s from e7$erts on =orth >orea and the =ortheast Asian region@ %his amalgamation of sources allo2s for a &road range of information to &e $rocessed there&y lo2ering the chance of missing an im$ortant $oint that could end u$ s3e2ing the study@
3iterature e4ie%
%he &oo3s analy0ed in this study can &e divided into four se$arate categoriesG Regional =orth >orean PolicyA United "tates? =orth >orean PolicyA the internal structure of =orth >oreaA and the gro2th and utili0ation of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy@ %he first set of &oo3s deal 2ith the regional $olicies of =orth >orea 2ith an em$hasis on "outh >oreaA Ea$anA and (hina@ All of these &oo3s 2ere $u&lished after 199) so each has the threat of =uclear Di$lomacy intert2ined into its foreign di$lomatic analysis for 199) introduced the 2orld to =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy and Brin3manshi$ through the First =uclear (risis@/2 %hese &oo3s see3 to analy0e various conce$ts surrounding =orth >orea such as =orth >orean $olicy coordination in the conte7t of great $o2er relations in =ortheast Asia: ho2 the handling of =orth >orea &y the great $o2ers in =ortheast Asia influences the $o2er dynamic of the region: and the gro2ing economic ga$ &et2een =orth >orea and "outh >orea and its affect on inter >orean relations@ %he im$ortance of "outh >orea in the =orth >orean dynamic is multifaceted and revolves around its historical narrative a$ro$os of =orth >orea as 2ell as its im$ortance on the international stage@ "outh >orean safety is constantly utili0ed as a &argaining tool for =orth >orea &ecause "eoul 2ould &e the main target of any =orth >orean military
52
=arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 9)@
.ershon 2,
attac3 stemming from of its relative closeness to the =orth and its glo&al economic im$ortance@ Des$ite thisA as authors such as -yers $oint outA "outh >orea?s strong sense of ethno nationalismA $lus many "outh >orean ne2s$a$ers? leftist vie2s regarding =orth >oreaA constantly ta$er "eoul?s res$onse to any =orth >orean $rovocation@/) %his creates an interesting dynamic amongst scholars 2hose 2or3s contri&ute to this $a$er for there are certain theorists !i@e@ "on and >im# 2ho &elieve "outh >orea should reesta&lish the economic engagement 2ith =orth >orea that &egan 2ith the regime of >im Dae Iung under the nomenclature of the Sunshine Polic+@/* %his is Iu7ta$osed 2ith vie2s of other academics !i@e@ Pritchard and FordH>2on# 2ho $oint out that economic engagement is merely utili0ed &y =orth >orea as leverage in their $ursuit of nuclear 2ea$ons@// %hey &elieve that "outh >orea must sto$ treating =orth >orean $rovocations so lightly for these actions are inter$reted &y the =orth as an intrinsic 2ea3ness in "outh >orea 2hich can &e e7$loited@ %hese authors vie2 "outh >oreanH=orth >orean relations through a Realist or a (onstructivist lensDacting as if these t2o theories are mutually e7clusive@ For e7am$leA -yers utili0es a (onstructivist lens in his arguement that =orth >orea has an u$$er hand on "outh >orea for the collective identity/1 of the "outh >orean $eo$le is one that encom$asses the =orth >oreans too and therefore handica$s them 2hen it is time to
53
B@R -yersA B=orth >orea ;ill =ever Play =iceAC The Ne- *or. Ti!esA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H2/Ho$inionH2/myers@html@ 54 >ey young "onA South Korean En'a'e!ent Policies and North Korea !5ondonG RoutledgeA 200)#@ 55 (harles 5@ PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#: .lyn Ford and "oyoung >2on@ North Korea on the 1rin.0 A Stru''le for Survival !Ann Ar&orG Pluto PressA 200,#@ 56 A collective identity refers to individualsM sense of &elonging to a grou$@ %he collective identity forms a $art of the $ersonal identity of the $erson over time@ ;hen this sense of a collective identity &ecomes strong enough it can trium$h over $ortions of one?s $ersonal identity there&y ta3ing a2ay a sense of individualism@ !"ourceG B@R@ -yersA The Cleanest Race0 ;o- North Koreans See The!selvesAnd (h+ &t 4atters !Broo3lynG -elville <ouseA 2010#@#
.ershon 29
$ressure or $unish the =orth >orean regime for its aggressive actions@/4 <e fails to com&ine this collective identity 2ith the $aranoia of the >im regime in its struggle for regional $o2er and security from the threat of the $ro ;estern forces@ %his is a consistent issue arising from this set of literature that Iustifies the need for a ne2 analy0ation through the innovative theory of "u&versive Realism@ %hese &oo3s $resent some incorrect assum$tions that Iustify the need for this research $a$er@ A maIor assum$tion in this literature is that "outh >orea lac3s the $hysical a&ility to standu$ to =orth >orea@ 6conomicallyA 2here it is vastly su$erior to =orth >oreaA its attem$ts to im$ose sanctions have &een negated through the constant funneling of funds through =orth >orea?s northern neigh&orA (hina@ %he authors assume that &ecause of "outh >orea?s sense of ethno nationalism and the constant threat of an attac3 &y =orth >orea that "outh >orea?s res$onse to nearly any $rovocation &y =orth >orea 2ill &e su&dued@ ;hile this has &een the case in $ast $rovocationsA recent events !i@e@ (heonan sin3ing and Feon$yeong Island shelling# $resent a strong $ossi&ility of changing this dynamic@ %he Feon$yeong Island attac3 2as the first attac3 since the end of the >orean ;ar/, that not only occurred on "outh >orean land &ut also involved the loss of civilian life@/9 %his inserts a varia&le that has never truly &een in $lay &efore in this dynamic &eing a direct attac3 on "outh >orean soil 2hich resulted in the loss of non military life@ AlsoA these &oo3s fail to com$letely analy0e the im$ortance of "outh >orea &eing a democratic institution and the affect this has on its relations 2ith a nucleari0ed
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B@R -yersA B=orth >orea ;ill =ever Play =iceAC The Ne- *or. Ti!esA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H2/Ho$inionH2/myers@html@ 58 %he >orean ;ar is technically not over for the 19/) Armistice 2as never fully ratified into a $eace treaty &ut most academics merely state that it is over for the dearth of military confrontation since this time $eriod@ 59 B@R -yersA B=orth >orea ;ill =ever Play =iceAC The Ne- *or. Ti!esA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H2/Ho$inionH2/myers@html@
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=orth >orea@ An e7am$le of this is that during the s$an of the "P%A "outh >orea under2ent three $residential changes !>im Dae IungA Roh -oo hyunA and 5ee -yung &a3# each of 2hom &rought a ne2 =orth >orean $olicy to into office 2ith them@10 %he lac3 of a consistent =orth >orean $olicyA 2hich is a general fallacy of democratic institutionsA ma3es it so certain reforms $ut in $lace are not given the necessary time to develo$ and mature in an effective manner@ %he literature on (hina and =orth >orea in the age of =uclear Di$lomacy $resents a more unified vie2 amongst academics in that many of them !i@e@ >2a3HEooA (oo$erA and Pritchard# vie2 (hina as a maIor $layer in the =orth >orean $aradigm and one in 2hich there is an immeasura&le influence on the e7ternal actions of =orth >orea@11 (hina?s $osition in the "P% 2as constantly grounded in $ro =orth >orean rhetoric: this can also &e said for (hina?s role on the United =ations "ecurity (ouncil !U="(# in 2hich its veto $o2er leads to any sanctions against =orth >orea &eing categorically 2atered do2n@ ;hat ma3es this literature im$ortant is 2hat 2as discovered 2hen various confidential United "tates documents lea3ed to the $u&lic in =ovem&er 2010@ %hese documents $resent a (hina that is not as in control of =orth >orea as analysts have &elieved and one that has &ecome fed u$ 2ith the constant actions of an irrational regime that acts li3e a Bs$oiled childC@12 It is im$ortant to re engage 2ith these te7ts for this 2ill sho2 the fallacies in these documents@
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U3 <eo and %erence RoehrigA South Korea Since "#:9 !=e2 For3G (am&ridge University PressA 2010#@ %ae <2an >2a3 and "eung <o EooA eds@A Peace Re'i!e 1uildin' on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asian Securit+ Coo eration !"urreyG Ashgate Pu&lishing 5imitedA 2010#: <elene (oo$erA BAs3ing (hina to Act 5i3e the U@"CA The Ne- *or. Ti!esA =ovem&er 24A 2010A htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H2,H2ee3inrevie2H2,coo$er@html: (harles 5 PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#@ 62 (hris <oggA B;i3ilea3s ca&lesG (hina Nfrustrated? &y =orth >oreaCA 11CA =ovem&er )0A 2010@A htt$GHH222@&&c@co@u3Hne2sH2orld us canada 11,411*1@
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%he main theory utili0ed in this set of literature derives from the Realist school of thought@ %he authors $ortray (hina?s su$$ort of =orth >orea as a manifestation of its anti ;estern rhetoric for a colla$se of =orth >orea $resents the strong $ossi&ility of a $ro ;estern unified >orea &ordering (hina 2hich 2ould acutely hinder its desire for hegemonic rule in the region@1) =orth >orea needs (hina to &olster its im$ortance u$on the international stage and as a means to confront the $ro ;estern forces that have maIor qualms 2ith =orth >orea?s actions@ %he issue arising in this te7t is that the hegemonic structure of the (hina =orth >orean friendshi$ is one that $resents the $erfect o$$ortunity to utili0e Post "tructuralist theory@ %he authors see this friendshi$ as mutually &eneficial &ut see (hina as the main actor 2ith =orth >orea follo2ing 2hen one must loo3 at ho2 certain actions of =orth >orea force the hand of (hina@ %he maIor assum$tion amongst these authors is that (hina isA &y farA the most informed country regarding =orth >orea?s actions and that =orth >orea does not act on the international stage 2ithout either having (hina?s $ermission or 2ithout vie2ing their actions in the conte7t of ho2 it might affect their friendshi$ 2ith (hina@ Recently $u&lished documentsA as noted a&oveA lay out a different structure in 2hich =orth >orea is not as o&servant to (hinese hegemony as $reviously thought and the (hinese are &eginning to &ecome aggravated 2ith =orth >orea?s actions@1* ;hen one $laces this ne2 $aradigm in the conte7t of the "P% the 0eitgeist of the "P% changes dramatically and must &e scrutini0ed more so than occurs in this literature@ %he second set of &oo3s deal 2ith the United "tates relations 2ith a nucleari0ed
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"eung <o Eoo and %ae <2an >2anA eds@ North Korea=s Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Securit+ !<am$shireG AshgateA 2004#@ 64 (hris <oggA B;i3ilea3s ca&lesG (hina Nfrustrated? &y =orth >oreaAC 11CA =ovem&er )0A 2010A htt$GHH222@&&c@co@u3Hne2sH2orld us canada 11,411*1@
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=orth >orea@ %hese &oo3s focus on =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy through the lens of the United "tates as o$$osed to an 6ast Asian lens that is vie2ing United "tatesH=orth >orean relations@ %his is im$ortant for it infuses a ;estern vie2 into a mostly 6astern literature set@ %he authors in this category can &e divided into t2o sections 2ith one tending to focus on U"H=orth >orea relations in the conte7t of the "P% !i@e@ Pritchard# 1/ 2hile other authors tend to focus on $ost "P% and the ramifications this has on the contem$orary $o2er dynamic on the >orean Peninsula@11 %he difference is that this later set of &oo3s are more concerned 2ith 2hat the $ossi&le colla$se of =orth >orea could mean regarding =uclear Proliferation and >orean Unification and ho2 the United "tates fits into this situation@ ;hat is very im$ortant a&out these &oo3s is that they sho2 the United "tates? governmental vie2 of =orth >orea@ %his offers a &etter understanding of the actions ta3en &y the United "tates since 199) regarding its =orth >orean $olicy@ %he United "tates isA argua&lyA the most im$ortant $layer in dealings 2ith =orth >orea for many of =orth >orea?s demands deal 2ith &ringing the United "tates to the negotiating ta&le@ =orth >orea vie2s the United "tates as the main $o2er &ro3er in the multilateral organi0ations and therefore &elieves that it must circumvent the road&loc3s $osed &y these organi0ations and directly deal 2ith the United "tates if it 2ants to o&tain its foreign $olicy goals@ %he maIor assum$tion in this literature 2hich $rovides a reason for this research
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(harles 5 PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#@ 66 Donald A@ 5@ -acintyreA .i ;oo3 "hinA and Daniel (@ "neiderA eds@A First 5rafts of Korea0 The U>S> 4edia and Perce tions of the Last Cold (ar Frontier !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2009#: 5eon 8@ "igalA 5isar!in' Stran'ers0 Nuclear 5i lo!ac+ -ith North Korea !PrincetonG Princeton University PressA 1994#@
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is that this literature vie2s =orth >orean United "tates relations solely through a Realist lens@ %he &lame for this does not com$letely fall u$on the academics forA as (arles 5@ Pritchard the am&assador and s$ecial envoy for negotiations 2ith =orht >orea !2001 200)#A so a$tly descri&ed it the United "tatesA during .eorge ;@ Bush?s tenureA vie2ed =orth >orea only as a &ellicose actor@ %his is sho2n &y the quoteA attri&uted to then 8ice President Dic3 (heneyA statingA BI have &een charged &y the $resident 2ith ma3ing sure that none of the tyrannies in the 2orld are negotiated 2ith@ ;e don?t negotiate 2ith evil 2e defeat it@C14 %he Bush administrations ina&ility to vie2 =orth >orea as anything &esides this BA7is of 6vilC severely limited their $olitical leverage regarding the <ermit >ingdom@ %hese actions and vie2$oints set the United "tates =orth >orean relations &ac3 years and negated any $rogress made during the (linton Administration@ %he dealings &et2een =orth >orea and the United "tates must include &oth a (onstructivist and Post "tructuralist vie2$oint to have any validity@ (onstructivism hel$s one understand ho2 the =orth >orean regime must indoctrinate its $eo$le 2ith the collective identity of America as a serious threat so that the $ersonality cult surrounding its leaders remains@ Post "tructuralism is im$ortant for many of these 2or3sA Iust li3e the $reviously discussed 2or3s on (hinaA negate loo3ing at the duality of the relationshi$ &et2een =orth >orea and the United "tates@ %hey 2ould rather vie2 the United "tates as reacting to =orth >orea?s actions as o$$osed to these t2o things not &eing mutually e7clusive@ %his relation is much too com$le7 to merely &e vie2ed through a theoretical conce$t 2hose main focus is $o2er relations and a 0ero sum game@ In order to truly understand this relationshi$ a study must enca$sulate the Realist $ers$ective 2ith
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(harles 5 PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#A 10)@
.ershon )*
(onstructivism 2hile utili0ing Post "tructuralism as an under$inning@ %he third set of 2or3s revolves around the internal structure of =orth >orea@ ;hile the $revious t2o sets of literature have loo3ed at ho2 =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy sha$ed relations &et2een =orth >orea and various statesA this set of literature offers a glance inside the <ermit >ingdom 2hich can offer a &etter insight into the im$ortance of nuclear 2ea$ons to =orth >orea@ (ertain 2or3sA such as Ford and >2onA discuss the history of =orth >orea from the $ost >orean ;ar era until contem$orary times@1, %he im$ortance of this set of literature is that it $rovides the &ac3ground from 2hich the gro2th of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy can &e scrutini0ed@ Allo2ing one to see 2hat internal events 2ere occurring in the country during certain 3ey e7ternal events !i@e@ the =uclear %estsA the 199) 2ithdra2al from the =P%A etc@# allo2s for a more e7tensive vie2 as to 2hy these e7ternal events occurred and can lead to the discovery of $ertinent information that 2as not discussed in the literature availa&le@ AlsoA 2hen dealing 2ith a to$ic as sensitive and controversial as =orth >orea the more facts that one is a&le to collect the &etter for it $rovides a &roader vie2 of events there&y assuaging any &iases that are innately $resent in the literature@ %hese 2or3s? casual arguments can &e divided into t2o distinct sectionsG those that utili0e the (onstructivist vie2$oint 2hen vie2ing =orth >orea?s internal structure and those that utili0e a Realist vie2$oint@ %hose utili0ing the (onstructivist vie2$oint include FordH>2o3A FosterA and -artin 2ho vie2 internal change in =orth >orea in the conte7t of ho2 it might alter the collective identity of the =orth >orean $eo$le and the
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.lyn Ford and "oyoung >2onA North Korea on the 1rin.0 A Stru''le for Survival !Ann Ar&orG Pluto PressA 200,#@
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$ersonality cult that surrounds the >im family@19 %his contri&utes to this thesis for it sho2s ho2 =uclear Di$lomacy is &eing utili0ed to maintain this aura of a collective identity in the sense of ho2 the =orth >orean?s vie2 their leader and ho2 they vie2 the outside 2orld &oth of 2hich are vital to the maintenance of the regime@ %hose utili0ing the Realist vie2$oint include -ichishitaA -yersA Eong FilA and "almon 2ho vie2 changes in the internal structure of =orth >orea in the conte7t of ho2 it threatens the via&ility of the >im regime and ho2 it alters their vie2s of the >orean Peninsula as a 0ero sum game@40 In this conte7tA =uclear Di$lomacy can &e seen as the means &y 2hich =orth >orea can flaunt its $o2er and $rove that it has maIor influence on the international stage@ InternallyA it is struggling &utA as this literature suggestsA that 2ill not matter as long as the BthreatC of outside forces is great enough to distract the =orth >oreans from their o&vious suffering@ A maIor assum$tion in this literature that furthers the need for a re analy0ation of the facts $resented is that these authors assume that =orth >orea can &e vie2ed through either a Realist or (onstructivist lensDmuch li3e many of the $reviously authors@ %he $ro&lem 2ith this is that =orth >orea is such a com$le7 entity that vie2ing it merely though either the Realist or (onstructivist lens only covers a minute amount of the causal
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.lyn Ford and "oyoung >2onA North Korea on the 1rin.0 A Stru''le for Survival !Ann Ar&orG Pluto PressA 200,#: Aidan (arter FosterA BFor the >imsA the ;ea3est 5in3 is FamilyCA Asia Ti!esA 'cto&er 22A 2010A htt$GHH222@atimes@comHatimesH>oreaH5E22Dg01@html: Bradley >@ -artinA B=orth >oreaG Pity the "on of >im Eong IlCA 2lobalPostA "e$tem&er 24A 2010A htt$GHH222@glo&al$ost@comHdis$atchHnorth 3oreaH100924H3im Iong il un succession@ 70 B@R -yersA B=orth >orea ;ill =ever Play =iceAC The Ne- *or. Ti!esA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H2/Ho$inionH2/myers@html: =arushige -ichishitaA@ North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#: Andre2 "almonA B%heories a&ound on =@ >orea attac3CA CNNA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHHarticles@cnn@comH2010 11 2*H2orldHnorth@3orea@attac3@analysisJ1Jdefense minister 3im tae young $yongyang succession $rocessK JsLP-G;'R5D: Ra Eong FilA B=orth >orea?s N-ilitary First? Politics are Behind Recent Attac3sCA Christian Science 4onitorA =ovem&er 21A 2010A htt$GHH222@csmonitor@comH(ommentaryH'$inionH2010H112)H=orth >orea s military first $olitics are &ehind recent attac3s@
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varia&les $resent andA if a fully detailed analysis of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy is to &e generatedA one must loo3 at all of the varia&les $resent@ AlsoA 2ith the e7ce$tion of FordH>2onA the authors do not mention the effect of the colla$se of the U""R on the contem$orary =orth >orean structure@ %he do2nfall of the U""R &eget an economic do2nturn in =orth >orea for the U""R $rovided =orth >orea 2ith 2ea$onsA aid !&oth monetary and $hysically#A and &ac3ing in the international community@ %his s$urred a $eriod of economic decline that continues to this day and is only assuaged 2ith the hel$ of (hina@ %he situation created &y the do2nfall of the U""R is something that cannot &e neglected in the conte7t of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy for it 2as only four years after its do2nfall that the First =uclear (risis occurred setting a ne2 $ath in =orth >orean foreign di$lomacy@ %he forth set of literature deals 2ith the gro2th of =orth >orea?s nuclear $ro2ess and its ever gro2ing use of =uclear Di$lomacy@41 %hese set of &oo3s analy0e the gro2th of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy and the meaning of nuclear 2ea$ons to =orth >orea@ %his is very im$ortant &ecause in order to com$rehend the larger $icture !i@e@ =uclear Di$lomacy# it is im$ortant to understand all the little $arts that ma3e u$ the 2hole !i@e@ the meaning of nuclear 2ea$ons to =orth >oreaA the utili0ation of military threats as o$$osed to various other means of di$lomatic interactionsA etc@#@
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Bruce 6@ BechtolA Red Ro'ue0 The Persistent Challen'e of North Korea !DullesG Potomac Boo3sA IncA 2004#: (harles 5@ PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#: .lyn Ford and "oyoung >2onA North Korea on the 1rin.0 A Stru''le for Survival !Ann Ar&orG Pluto PressA 200,#: =arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#@
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%he maIor assum$tion in this set of literature is that =orth >orea utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy for mere $o2er gains@ Po2erA as it is discussed in these 2or3sA deals 2ith having a $resence on the international stage@ ;hile it is true that =orth >orea does not $osses the economic means to hel$ it evolve into a maIor $layer on the glo&al stage there is much more to this than is discussed in the aforementioned literature@ %o truly understand the im$ortance of =uclear Proliferation to =orth >orea it is vital to loo3 at the historical narrative of the >orean PeninsulaA the influence of $o2er $olitics in the regionA and intra =orth >orean $olitics amongst an amalgamation of other issues@ %his study 2ill attem$t to delve into all of these to $rovide a more scru$ulous vie2 of the =orth >orean nuclear $rogram and =orth >orea?s use of =uclear Di$lomacy@ It is 2ith this laid out that this thesis can no2 $rogress into a discussion of the internal structure of the <ermit >ingdom@
!hapter ': A Glance into the (ermit Kingdom
Internal *tructure
'ne of the maIor overarching fallacies in any =orth >orean analysis is a misinter$retation of its internal structure ranging from the social structure to the etymological nomenclature $rescri&ed to the form of government $resent in Pyongyang@ In order to $roduce a via&le analysis of =orth >orea?s em$loyment of =uclear Di$lomacy it is $ertinent to $roduce a clear and concise definition of certain termsA such as the governmental structure or =orth >orea and the $ersonality cult around >im Eong IlA so that for the duration of this study their significance is not misconstrued@ %he ho$e of this section is to $resent a cursory glance of these varia&les so that the common fallacies
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are $ointed out@ %his section 2ill not aim to $rovide a detailed analysis of these definitions for that 2ould shift the em$hasis of the $a$er a2ay from its original $ur$ose &eing that the >im regime utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy as a means to maintain $o2er through sta&ili0ing internal dissent 2hilst o&taining e7ternal concessions to aid their dila$idated infrastructure@ %he governmental structure of the regime in Pyongyang is Authoritarian 2ith the legitimacy of rule not stemming from some divine &eing &ut from the conce$t of a $ersonality cult@ %he term that can &e used to descri&e this structure is a B(ommunist -onarchyC &utA al2ays &earing in mindA that the term (ommunist is not synonymous 2ith "oviet Russia@ %he ty$e of rule in =orth >orea is vastly different to that of its father stateA the U""R@42 ;ithout $roviding tangential informationA the differences &et2een =orth >orea and the U""R range from the 2ay in 2hich the leaders are $raised to the 2ay that the $eo$le vie2 themselves as citi0ens of the state@ A $ersonality cult manifest itself 2hen a Bone man dictatorshi$ $resents itself as a democracyC and the goal of this $ersonality cult is to Bconvey im$ression that due to the ruler?s unique qualifications and unanimity of the $eo$le?s love from himA his rule constitutes the $erfect fulfillment of democratic ideals@C4) %he utterance of BDemocracyC should not &e inter$reted as the yearning for the >im regime to $resent itself as a bona fide form of rule $roduced from some meta$hysical lining of democratic norms $resent in =orth >oreaDquite the o$$osite is true@ %he term Democracy in this sense s$ea3s more to fact that natural forces endo2ed the >im lineage 2ith the $erfect em&odiment of ethnic virtues ma3ing them the
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Aidan (arter FosterA BFor the >imsA the ;ea3est 5in3 is FamilyAC Asia Ti!esA 'cto&er 22A 2010A htt$GHH222@atimes@comHatimesH>oreaH5E22Dg01@html@ 73 I&id@A 9,@
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Iust rulers for the >orean $eo$le@ In order to do thisA the =orth >orean $ro$aganda machine must convey the sense that 2hatever >im is in charge is the most BnaRveA s$ontaneousA lovingA and $ure >oreanDmost >oreanA >oreanDever@C4* %his sho2s a difference &et2een Pyongyang and the U""R for BP$Qraising a leader as the $erfect em&odiment of ethnic virtues is less e7travagant than $raising himA as "talin 2as $raisedA as the highest authority in every science@C4/ By truncating the level of e7travagant $raise $laced u$on the ruler to more tangi&leA more humanesqueA it $resents the =orth >orean $eo$le 2ith a conce$t that is much easier to &elieve than claiming that their leader is as a demigod of academia@ %he im$ortance of understanding the internal structure of =orth >orea to this thesis revolves around the utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy &y the >im regime as a means to maintain $o2er over the =orth >orean $eo$le@ In order to fully com$rehend ho2 this is accom$lished it is vital to understand ho2 the country is internally structured@ =ot only this &ut understanding the internal structure of =orth >orea 2ill hel$ in understanding a variety of their actions during the Fifth Round of the "i7 Party %al3s@
5xternal 6ie%s
%he &rief overvie2 of the internal structure of the =orth >orean government creates the grounds from 2hich a discussion of their e7ternal vie2s can &e constructed@ Discussing the e7ternal vie2s of the <ermit >ingdom alone could &e the su&Iect of an entirely se$arate thesis and for this reason this discussion 2ill &e limited to their vie2s regarding the three most im$ortant actors in the Fifth Round of the "i7 Party %al3sG (hinaA "outh >oreaA and the United "tates@ %he reasoning &ehind attri&uting these three
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states !and =orth >orea# as the most im$ortant actors in the "i7 Party %al3s 2ill &ecome more a$$arent the more this $a$er delves into the to$ic@ ButA as a cursory e7$lanationA Ea$an?s main concern during the entirety of the "P% 2as on re$arations from the =orth >orean 3idna$$ing of Ea$anese citi0ens earlier in the century and Russia 2as only &rought into the "P% at the &ehest of =orth >orea to &alance out the "outh >orean Ea$an United "tates alliance@ (hina is =orth >orea?s main ally and functions as their $ro7y on the United =ation "ecurity (ouncil@ "outh >orea and the United "tatesA on the other handA function as the sca$egoat for the =orth >orean $ro$aganda machine@ !hinese7North Korean elations (hinese >orean relations 2ere forged on the &attlefield during the >orean ;ar 2hen (hinese troo$s crossed the &order to aid their >orean comrades in the fight against the BIm$erialistC Americans@41 %he (hinese =orth >orean relationshi$ can &e quite intricate de$ending on the conte7t in 2hich it is analy0ed@ From the (hinese $oint of vie2A =orth >orea is a strategic asset a$ro$os of its relations 2ith America@44 =orth >orea $resents a geo$olitical &uffer &et2een (hina?s Asiatic hegemonic as$irations and the largest threat to this dreamD$ro American "outh >orea@ It is for this reasonA and the fact that the colla$se of the =orth >orean regime 2ould lead to a mass influ7 of malnourished and im$overished >oreans into (hina?s northeast regionA that (hina is the largest economic donor to the >im regime@ Because of the fear of this flood of =orth >orean immigrantsA a $revie2 of 2hich occurred during the 2ides$read famines in the
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Ra Eong FilA B=orth >orea?s N-ilitary First? Politics are Behind Recent Attac3sAC Christian Science 4onitorA =ovem&er 21A 2010A htt$GHH222@csmonitor@comH(ommentaryH.lo&al 8ie2$ointH2010H1121H=orth >orea s military first $olitics are &ehind recent attac3s@ 77 I&id@
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mid 1990s4,A (hina 2ill never ta3e severeA de ha&ilitating actions against =orth >orea@49 (hina?s t2o &illion dollars 2orth of annual trade 2ith Pyongyang accounts for more than forty $ercent of =orth >orea?s e7ternal trade@,0 AlsoA B&y some estimatesA (hina $rovides eighty $ercent of =orth >oreaMs consumer goods and forty five $ercent of its food@C,1 %he discussion of the (hinese vie2s of =orth >orea is im$ortant for it 2ill hel$ convey ho2 com$le7 the =orth >orean vie2s and treatment of (hina are &y com$arison@ =orth >orea has &ecome quite de$endent on (hinese assistance since the do2nfall of the "oviet UnionDa fact that they are not 2illing to readily admit for that 2ould question the strength of the >im regime and everything that they have told their $eo$le@ %he most accurate 2ay to descri&e the =orth >orean stance on (hina is anecdotally through the First =uclear (risis !2001# 2hich 2ill &e discussed in de$th later on in this $a$er@,2 =orth >orea is 2ell a2are that (hina is their only true ally and $ossesses an Oemerging role as a glo&al actor 2ith increasing international res$onsi&ilities and $restige and a commitment to =orth >orea as an ally 2ith 2hom (hina shares longstanding historical and ideological ties@O,) %his came into their calculation 2hen they attem$ted their First =uclear %est forA des$ite the fact that (hina signed U= "ecurity (ouncil Resolution 141,,* follo2ing the testA =orth >orea is 2ell a2are of their mutually &eneficial
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6stimates are that a million $eo$leDroughly /S of the =orth >orean $o$ulationDdied from hunger related causes during the 2orst $eriod of the famine !199/ 1994# 2ith ten of thousands fleeing to (hina@ !"ourceG B@R -yersA The Cleanest Race0 ;o- North Koreans See The!selvesAnd (h+ &t 4atters !Broo3lynG -elville <ouseA 2010#A /)#@ 79 I&id@A 2,@ 80 %ae <2an >2a3 and "eung <o EooA eds@A Peace Re'i!e 1uildin' on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asian Securit+ Coo eration@ "urrey !Ashgate Pu&lishing 5imitedA 2010#A 2,@ 81 Eayshree BaIoriaA B%he (hina =orth >orea Relationshi$AC Council on Forei'n Relations6 'cto&er 4A 2010A htt$GHH222@cfr@orgH$u&licationH11094HchinanorthJ3oreaJrelationshi$@htmlT$)@ 82 I&id@ 83 I&id@ 84 %his resolution im$osed sanctions u$on =orth >orea: its full descri$tion can &e accessed hereG htt$GHHdaccess dds ny@un@orgHdocHU=D'(H.6=H=01H/42H04HPDFH=01/4204@$dfK'$en6lement
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relationshi$ 2ith (hina@ It is for this reason that they do not fear a volte-face &y (hina and canA there&y: assert their im$ortance on the international stage through acts such as this 2ithout the fear of ruthless (hinese retri&ution@ %hese actions can also &e e7$lained &y loo3ing at the aid that =orth >orea receives from (hina@ If =orth >orea merely received goods from (hinaA 2ithout these ty$es of $hysically threatening actionsA it could &e seen as BaidC des$ite 2hatever the local $ro$aganda might $ur$ort@ %he ina&ility of the local $ro$aganda to fully s2ay the =orth >orean $eo$le is a contem$orary $ro&lem facing the <ermit >ingdom due to the deterioration of the information cordon,/@ Because of thisA =orth >orea must su&stantiateA in the eyes of its $eo$leA that it has the u$$er hand in the (hinese =orth >orean relationshi$@ %he relationshi$ must come off as a hierarchical one in 2hich Bsu&servientC (hina is more or less $aying tri&ute,1 to the >im regime through their economic offerings@ %his anayl0ation of the hierarchical structure of the =orth >orean (hinese relationshi$ is a $erfect instance to im$lement the utili0ation of Post "tructuralism@ In realityA (hina is far su$erior to =orth >orea in argua&ly every measura&le as$ect &ut through the >im regimes control over the means of 3no2ledge dis$ersion !e@g@ the ne2sA the educational systemA etc@#A the >im regime can ma3e the =orth >orean $eo$le &elieve that =orth >orea is the su$erior country@ ;hat can &e gleaned from the $rior t2o $aragra$hs is that (hina needs =orth
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In the late 1990sA 2hen =orth >orean?s 2ere fleeing over the &order into (hina during the famineA many of them 2ould not live in (hina andA insteadA o$t to &ring goods &ac3 to their starving families@ Included in these goods 2ere smuggled %8s 2hich are utili0edA to this dayA to illegally 2atch (hineseH"outh >orean ne2s@ %his ne2ly discovered access to information is du&&ed Bthe deterioration of the information cordonC for the =orth >orean $eo$le no2 have other 2ays to get their ne2s &esides government sanctioned ne2scasts 2hich ma3es it much harder on the =orth >orean regime to &end the truth@ 86 ;hat is interesting in this is that it is an attem$t to com$letely reserve the historical narrative forged &et2een the t2o countries@ U$ until around the time of the '$ium ;ars !mid 19th century#A the >orean Peninsula 2as a tri&utary of the (hinese 6m$ire@
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>orea as a $hysical landmass to se$arate it from "outh >orea 2hile =orth >orea direly needs the (hinese economic aid and $olitical clout &ut cannot o$enly admit this and must convey the vie2 that they are the more $o2erful state in this t2o state dynamic@ %hese &rief descri$tions should &e enough to $rovide a strong critique of the recent articlesA stemming from the accidental release of classified "tate De$artment documentsA that (hina has &ecome Bfed u$C 2ith =orth >orea and 2ould not render the unification of the >orean Peninsula under control of "outh >orea out of the question@,4 (urrentlyA the only government 2ho 2ants >orean UnificationA 2hether their o&Iection is for economic or geo $olitical reasonsA is =orth >oreaDas long as they are the ones doing the reunifying@ Any bona fide scenario concerning a "outhern lead reunification of >orea must involve the demise of the DPR>Dthe outcome of 2hich could &e disastrous@ %his discussion relates to the argument $osed in this thesis in that it enca$sulates &oth the $olitical $o2er and the des$air varia&les in the logic &ehind =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy@ (hina manifests itselfA to =orth >oreaA as an entity to hel$ =orth >orea circumvent the occlusion &et2een them and a $resence on the 2orld stage@ 'n to$ of thisA (hinaA as mentioned a&oveA is a maIor su$$lier of aid to =orth >orea 2hich hel$s 3ee$ the regime running@ =orth >orea cannot &e seen as a lesser state than (hinaA 2hich it 2ould a$$ear so if it Iust acce$ted the aid given out &y the (hineseA so it must act 2ith threatening overtures on the 2orld stageDthoughA it is im$ortant to remem&erA never acting in such a manner directly to2ards (hina@ %his 2ayA =orth >orea receives the aid they so des$erately need 2hile maintaining their aura of near infalli&ility amongst the =orth >orean $eo$le@
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"imon %isdallA B;i3ilea3s ca&les reveal (hina Mready to a&andon =orth >oreaMAC 2uardian6 =ovem&er 29A 2010A htt$GHH222@guardian@co@u3H2orldH2010HnovH29H2i3ilea3s ca&les china reunified 3orea@
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*outh Korean7North Korean elations Relations &et2een "outh >orea and =orth >orea are even more com$le7 than they are &et2een =orth >orea and (hina for the historical narrative and collective identity amongst the t2o &ordering nations &egets an oddA al&eit ever changingA dynamic@ %he =orth >orean regime vie2s "outh >orea as a colony of the BFan3eesC !i@e@ America# and it is =orth >orea?s Io& to free their enchained &rethren@,, ;hileA &ecause of the deterioration of the information cordonA the =orth has had to admit the higher quality of life in the "outhA this is negatedA in the eyes of the =orthern $ro$aganda machineA &y the national and moral inferiority of their "outhern &rethren through their interactions 2ith America@,9 ;hat =orth >orean $ro$aganda $ur$orts is that B no amount of 2ealthUcan still the southern &rethren?s yearning for freedom and $urification@C90 "oA 2hile their "outhern &rethren may &e &etter off monetarilyA they are enca$sulated &y the American nightmare and it is the Io& of their $o2erful =orthern &rothers to free them@ =orth >orean $ro$aganda has also $ermeated the idea that "outh >oreans revere >im Eong Il even more than their elected leadersD2ho areA according to =orth >oreaA chosen &y the United "tates in rigged elections@ ;hat has anchored the "outh >orean $eo$le to their =orthern &rethren is their
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infalli&le sense of ethno nationalism91 that has 2ithstood various =orth >orean attac3s92 throughout the years@9) %hough 2hat has &eleaguered a consistent "outh >orean $olicy to2ards the =orth is the variance in elected officials vie2s to2ards =orth >orea@ For instanceA u$ until the election of >im Dae EungA all "outh >orean Presidents9* held strict anti engagement vie2s to2ards =orth >orea@9/ %his 2ould change under >im Dae Eung 2ith the im$lementation of the Sunshine Polic+91 2hich 2ould last until the election of 5ee -yung Ba3 in 200, 2ho reverted to a much stronger anti =orth >orean stance@ %he lac3 of a consistent a$$roach to =orth >orea is something that ma3es negotiations much more difficult for Pyongyang is cogni0ant of the fact that the "outh >orea?s $olicy one year might &e the antithesis of the $olicy the ne7t year@94 AlsoA occluding a straightfor2ard relationshi$ 2ith =orth >orea are "outh >orea?s relationshi$s 2ith the
91
%his ethno nationalism has &egun to 2aver 2ith the recent attac3s $reviously mentioned in this $a$er@ %here is not enough anecdotal evidence during the 2riting of this $a$er to clearly state that the "outh >orean sense of ethno nationalism has all &ut dissi$ated@ It is for this reason that 2e 2ill assume that it remains strong@ 92 For a summary of all the =orth >orean attac3s on "outh >orea visit this 2e&siteG htt$GHH222@google@comHfusionta&lesHData"ourceKdsrcidL)14111@ 93 B@R@ -yersA B=orth >orea ;ill =ever Play =iceAC The Ne- *or. Ti!esA =ovem&er 2*A 2010A htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H2/Ho$inionH2/myers@html@ 94 %echnically s$ea3ingA >im Foung "am 2as the first democratically elected civilian President in 199)@ Before thatA there 2ere a sle2 of military dictatorshi$s@ 95 B@R -yersA The Cleanest Race0 ;o- North Koreans See The!selvesAnd (h+ &t 4atters !Broo3lynG -elville <ouseA 2010#A //@ 96 %his $olicy 2as named Bafter the Aeso$ fa&le in 2hich the "un is a&le to $ersuade a man to ta3e off his coat after the =orth ;ind fails to do so@C %he $olicy had three com$onentsG 1# "eoul 2ould never tolerate armed $rovocation of any 3ind from =orth >orea 2# "eoul has no intention to undermine or a&sor& =orth >orea and )# "eoul 2ill actively $ush reconciliation and coo$eration &et2een the t2o >oreas &eginning 2ith those areas that can &e most easily agreed u$on@ %his o$ened u$ economic and social interactions amongst the t2o countries including the reunification of families 2ho 2ere se$arated during the >orean ;ar@ It is arguedA &y many scholarsA to have $roduced the closest relations amongst the >oreas since the >orean ;ar@ !"ourceG .ordon .@ (hangA Nuclear Sho-do-n0 North Korea Ta.es on the (orld !=e2 For3G Random <ouseA 2001#A 101 102@# 97 %he reference to the lac3 of a consistent a$$roach does not ta3e into account any $rovocations &y =orth >orea@ It is merely stating thatA even if =orth >orea did not change its $olicies or force any $rovocations &et2een regimesA the $olicies &et2een "outh >orean Presidents? 2ould still change@ As 2ill &e sho2n during this $a$erA this is a maIor fallacy in dealing 2ith democratic nations during long dra2n out negotiations such as the "i7 Party %al3s@
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United "tates and 2ith (hina@ %he United "tates hasA for the most $artA maintained a vehemently anti >im regime stand$oint in dealing 2ith =orth >orea@ %his $resents a $ro&lem to "outh >orea for the United "tates $rovides "outh >orea 2ith a nuclear um&rella9,A a means of $rotection against =orth >orea99A and 2ith military $ersonal and equi$ment@100 It is for this reasonA and a sle2 of others101A that "outh >orea must al2ays ta3e into careful consideration the o$inion of America 2hen dealing 2ith =orth >oreaDfurther convoluting their =orth >orean $olicy@ (hinese o$inionA regarding "outh >orea?s =orth >orean $olicyA cannot &e
ignored for the im$ortance of (hina to "outh >orea@ =ot only has "outh >orea &enefited the most economically amongst its Asian neigh&ors from the rise of (hina !it is the second largest e7$orter to (hina# &ut di$lomatically (hina is a force that "outh >orea cannot ignore if it 2ants to reach its full $otential on the 2orld stage@102 Adding this varia&le into the equation $roduces a result in 2hich "outh >orean foreign strategic $olicy regarding =orth >orea fluctuates &et2een domestic o$inion !2hich is constantly changing#A United "tates o$inion !constantly anti =orth >orean#A and (hinese o$inion !constantly $ro =orth >orean#A 2hichA o&viouslyA $roduces quite the &y0antine $olicy@ %his relates to the argument $resented in the thesis for it dra2s u$on the $olitical
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A Bnuclear um&rellaC refers to a $romise &y a nuclear state to defend a non nuclear state if it is attac3ed@ ;hat is interesting is that neither Russia nor (hina $rovides =orth >orea 2ith a nuclear um&rella 2hich adds to =orth >orea?s list of reasons for 2hy it needs nuclear ca$a&ilities@ !"ourceG %ae <2an >2a3 and "eung <o EooA eds@A Peace Re'i!e 1uildin' on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asian Securit+ Coo eration !"urreyG Ashgate Pu&lishing 5imitedA 2010#A ,4@# 100 %ae <2an >2a3 and "eung <o EooA eds@A Peace Re'i!e 1uildin' on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asian Securit+ Coo eration !"urreyG Ashgate Pu&lishing 5imitedA 2010#A ,4@ 101 "ome of the other reasons includeG the economic im$ortance of the United "tates to "outh >oreaA their historical friendshi$A and the im$ortance of the United "tates on the 2orld stage@ 102 Francoise =icolasA Korea and the 5ual Chinese Challen'e !"eoulG >orea Institute for International 6conomic PolicyA 200/#A 1*@
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$o2er argument and hel$s further e7$lain the utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy &y =orth >orea@ 'ne of the main o&Iectives of the =orth >orean state is to have a voice on the international stage and one 2ay to accom$lish this is through di$lomatic channels@ Because of the &y0antine and tenuous $olicies of "outh >orea accredited toA amongst other thingsA their Democratic $olitical structureA =orth >orea cannot rely $urely on these di$lomatic channels 2ithout the threat of nuclear 2ea$ons@ %he reason for this is that the nuclear 2ea$ons $rovide a constant threat to the "outh >orean regime so that they must al2ays &e consistent in at least one category 2hen dealing 2ith =orth >orea@ ;hile "outh >orea is one of the most im$ortant actors vis V vis =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacyA this thesis 2ill not actively engage 2ith the state@ %he reason for this is that =orth >orean actions are intrinsically laced 2ith $olicy agendas regarding "outh >orea@ %his section $rovides $ertinent information that should &e carried throughout the thesis even if it is not e7$unged u$on@ United *tates7North Korean elations As has &een hashed out a&oveA the United "tates $erce$tion of =orth >orea and the >im regime has &een quite consistent throughout the yearsD=orth >orea is the BremnantsC of the former U""R molded into something slightly different yet Iust as evil@ ;hat is salient for a com$rehensive understanding of the "i7 Party %al3s is the a&ility to fully com$rehend ho2 =orth >orea vie2s the United "tates@ ;hat must &e understood is that in order for the $ersonality cultA and the conce$t of the B$rotective motherC10)A to 2ithstand the varia&les $resent in =orth >orea !i@e@ a d2indling economyA 3no2ledge of
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%his term B$rotective motherC refers to the 2ay in 2hich the =orth >orean $eo$le vie2 >im Eong Il@ Unli3e in the U""RA 2here the leader 2as vie2ed as the educating fatherA =orth >orea has their $eo$le vie2 their leader as a loving mother 2hose Io& it is to $rotect her young and let them gro2 though ma3ing errors 2hile maintaining their aura of naivety@ !"ourceG B@R -yersA The Cleanest Race0 ;o- North Koreans See The!selvesAnd (h+ &t 4atters !Broo3lynG -elville <ouseA 2010#@#
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the socio economic affluence of their southern neigh&orsA etc@# and still &e vie2ed as infalli&le there needs to &e an e7ternal threat from 2hich the $eo$le are $rotected: this threat manifests itself in the form of the United "tates@ ;hat is interesting is that the United "tates o$erates under the conviction that the =orth >orean regime &elieves the o$$osite of 2hat it tells its $eo$le@ United "tates di$lomats have &een quoted sayingA B>im Eong Il doesn?t &elieve the stuff Pi@e@ the $ersonality cult and all of its e7ternalitiesQ himself@ <e told -adeleine Al&right it?s all fa3e@C10* It is their &elief that the =orth >orean leadershi$ can &e &argained 2ith and are ca$a&le of &eing convinced of nuclear disarmament@ %his statement is erroneous for 2or3ing alongside the United "tates 2ould question the mere e7istence of the DPR>: the DPR> functions on convincing its citi0ens that it is the &etter >oreaA the one in the right@ ;or3ing alongside the United "tates 2ouldA indirectlyA ac3no2ledge "eoul?s right to rule the $eninsula@ %he dissolution of one of the founding $illars of the DPR> could lead to innumera&le issues for the <ermit >ingdom including the usur$ation of the >im regime andA it is for this reasonA that =orth >orea can never 2or3 alongside the United "tates@ =orth >orea must al2ays either have the u$$er hand or &e a&le to convince its citi0ens that it has the u$$er hand@ In the follo2ing cha$ters it is im$erative that one al2ays 3ee$s this in mind@ ;ith this in mindA the discussion can no2 continue on into the "i7 Party %al3s@
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!hapter ): The *ix +arty Tal,s
A 8rief Introduction into the *ix +arty Tal,s
Before launching into the case study of this thesis it is $aramount to $rovide a &rief introduction to the "i7 Party %al3s so that the intricacies of the %al3s can &e analy0ed later on 2ithout having to interru$t the analysis to delve into the &asics@ 'n 'cto&er )A 2002 in Pyongyang there 2as a &ilateral meeting held &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea in 2hich the United "tates alerted =orth >orea that it had information on the construction of a Bsecret uranium enrichment $lantC in =orth >orea 2hich 2as against the 199* Agreed Frame2or3@10/ >im Eong Il?s right hand manA >ang "o3 EuA the First 8ice -inster re&uttedA BP2Qhat is 2rong 2ith us having our o2n Uranium 6nrichment ProgramK ;e are entitled to $osses our o2n <6U P<ighly 6nriched UraniumQA and 2e are &ound to $roduce more $o2erful 2ea$ons than that@C101 "tatementsA such as this oneA that are delivered 2ith a threatening nuance 2ithout $lainly threatening the o$$osing $artyA is a sta$le of =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy and its su&sidiary of Brin3manshi$@ %hey usuallyA as 2ill &e sho2n in the later $ortions of this cha$terA deliver these statements in such a manner that $laces the &lame u$on the United "tates for the continual develo$ment of =orth >orea?s nuclear arsenal: if it 2as not for the threatening overtones of the United "tates then =orth >orea 2ould have no need to
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%he 199* Agreed Frame2or3 signed &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea in .eneva halted the construction of nuclear reactors &y =orth >orea@ In this documentA the t2o governments agreed to re$lace =orth >orea?s gra$hite moderated reactors and related facilities 2ith light 2ater reactor $o2er $lants !less $rone to nuclear $roliferation# &y 200)@ %hey also agreed to Breduce &arriers to trade and investmentA to o$en a liaison office in each other?s ca$italA and to u$grade &ilateral relations to am&assadorial level@C %he full details of the frame2or3 can &e found hereG htt$GHH222@3edo@orgH$dfsHAgreedFrame2or3@$df@ !"ourceG (hae Ein 5eeA A Troubled Peace0 U>S> Polic+ and The T-o Koreas !BaltimoreG %he Eohns <o$3ins University PressA 2001#A 144 14,@ 106 Foichi Funa&ashiA The Peninsula ?uestion0 A Chronicle of the Second Nuclear Crisis !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ing Institution PressA 2004#A 9*@
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develo$ these 2ea$ons@ After the declaration of their Uranium 6nrichment ProgramA =orth >orea then declared the 199* Agreed Frame2or3 nullified &ut it 2ould not &e until Eanuary 10A 200) that they 2ould 3ic3 out IA6A !International Atomic 6nergy Agency# ins$ectors and 2ithdra2al from the =P%104@10, %heir reasoning &ehind the nullification of the frame2or3 is multifaceted &ut is rooted in the harsh rhetoric of the United "tates a$ro$os of =orth >orea@ It 2as also due to the lac3 of any su&stantial $rogress to2ards the creation of 5;Rs des$ite the fact that the Agreed Frame2or3 clearly stated that the rough deadline for construction 2ould &e 200)@ %ensions continued to escalate as sho2n &y the A$ril 200) $ronouncement &y =orth >orea that only a $hysically deterrent force !readG nuclear 2ea$ons# could avert a 2ar and $rotect the =orth >orea $eo$le from the hostility of America@109 ;ith tensions risingA (hina ste$$ed in and organi0ed a set of trilateral meetings &et2een themselvesA =orth >oreaA and the United "tates from the t2enty third to the t2enty fifth of A$ril in BeiIing@110 %he (hinese reasoning &ehind this can &e vie2ed as merely self &eneficial@ (hina needs =orth >orea to act as a &uffer &et2een its northern &order and "outh >orea and also does not 2ant the =orth >orean regime to colla$se for that 2ould lead to a mass e7odus of =orth >orean $eo$le into (hinaDan event for 2hich (hina is not currently $re$ared@ ;ith regards to the United "tatesA the United "tates is a maIor (hinese trading
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%he %reaty on the =on Proliferation of =uclear 2ea$ons !=P%# isA in its most &asic formA a treaty to limit the $roliferation of nuclear 2ea$ons !"ourceG .ordon .@ (hangA Nuclear Sho-do-n0 North Korea Ta.es on the (orld !=e2 For3G Random <ouseA 2001#A 19,@# 108 =arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 11*@ 109 Foichi Funa&ashiA The Peninsula ?uestion0 A Chronicle of the Second Nuclear Crisis !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ing Institution PressA 2004#A 11/@ 110 <a0el "mithA Reconstitutin' Korean Securit+0 A Polic+ Pri!er !%o3yoG United =ations University PressA 2004#A 1/2@
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$artner so it is im$ortant for (hina to maintain a certain level of ra$$ort 2hen dealing 2ith the United "tates@ During these meetings there 2as a very fine line of discourse that needed to &e follo2ed@ %he United "tates refused to engage in &ilateral negotiations 2ith =orth >oreaA a hallmar3 of the Bush PresidencyA so if the meeting a$$eared to &e headed in that direction the United "tates 2ould 2al3 out@111 'n the other handA =orth >orean $rovocations over the recent months 2ereA in $artA due to their yearning for &ilateral negotiations 2ith the United "tates112A so it 2as im$ortant to them that these tal3s a$$ear some2hat &ilateral in nature@ -ean2hileA (hina could not ta3e sides other2ise it 2ould lose its favora&le $lace 2ithin these tal3s@ ;hile these tal3s o$ened the dialogue regarding =orth >orea?s nuclear armament it 2as o&vious that it 2ould &e a long road to a mutual agreement amongst the $arties involved@ %he question then $resented itself as to if it 2ould &e &etter to maintain the trilateral format or if it 2ould &e more fitting to o$en the tal3s to other interested $artiesA mainly "outh >orea and Ea$anD&oth of 2hom have a legitimate role and interest in the denucleari0ation of =orth >orea@11) Pyongyang did not mind the addition of these countries under t2o conditionsG it 2ould &e allo2ed to meet 2ith the United "tates &ilaterally on the sidelines during these meetings and that Russia 2ould also &e added to &alance out the states $resent@11* Follo2ing thisA there 2ere a sle2 of di$lomatic
111 112
I&id@A 1/2@ %his is a $rime e7am$le of =orth >orean Brin3manshi$@ %heir threat of nuclear armament and 2ithdra2al from the =P% 2asA in $artA due to their desire to &ring the United "tates to the negotiating ta&le@ %hey could not merely as3 the United "tates to tal3s for that 2ould ma3e =orth >orea a$$ear 2ea3 andA to maintain the gri$ over the =orth >orean $eo$leA this could not ha$$en@ It is for this reason that they had to utili0e this &rin3manshi$ to o&tainA al&eit $artiallyA their o&Iective@ 113 I&id@A 1/)@ 114 I&id@A 1/)@
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&ac3channel tal3s amongst (hina and various other states 2hich manifested itselfA eventuallyA in the &irth of the "i7 Party %al3s@ %he a&ility to &ring together these si7 very different nations to discuss the denucleari0ation of =orth >orea 2as quite an accom$lishment and it must &e ac3no2ledged that this gathering 2as due to (hinese di$lomatic ca$a&ilities@11/ ;ith the outline of the "i7 Party %al3s laid outA the thesis can no2 2or3 its 2ay into a discussion of the late Fourth RoundHearly Fifth Round of %al3s@
The Fifth ound of the *ix +arty Tal,s
The 5nd of the Fourth ound9A +recursor To Trou.le T-o Asian !en accused of s!u''lin' -ea ons and counterfeit bills into the United States laundered @">"A !illion in 4acau ban. accountsB""7 -United Press &nternational %he Fifth Round of the "i7 Party %al3s is of $aramount im$ortance in the study of =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy &ecause of the events that occurredA not only during itA &ut leading u$ to it@ 'n August 2/A 200/A in &et2een the First and "econd Phase of the Fourth Round of %al3sA the a&ove dis$atch &egan circulating throughout ;ashingtonDthe rever&erations of 2hich 2ould sha$e the future of the "i7 Party %al3s@ %hese menA 2ho 2ere $art of a larger crime syndicateA Bre$ortedly received W1@1/ million from undercover la2 enforcement agents in e7change for W)@)/ million in high quality counterfeit dollarsC 2hile also receiving a de$osit to2ards a million dollar shi$ment of arms including Bseventy five anti tan3 missilesA fifty roc3et $ro$elled grenade
115
;hile there intentions may have &een more self centered !i@e@ im$roving their di$lomatic clout on the international stage and ho$ing that multilateral tal3s 2ould $roduce a 2atered do2n agreement as is $ar 2ith treaties $roduced via multilateral tal3s# one still must ac3no2ledge the im$ressive feat that (hina accom$lished@ 116 Foichi Funa&ashiA The Peninsula ?uestion0 A Chronicle of the Second Nuclear Crisis !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ing Institution PressA 2004#A *10 *11@
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launchersUC amongst a sle2 of other 2ea$ons@114 ;hile this a$$ears to lac3 any correlation to =orth >oreaA as more details &ecome 3no2n it 2as discovered that one of the &an3s at the forefront of the investigation 2as the Banco Delta Asia !BDA# headquartered in -acauDforty $ercent of 2hose &usiness directly relates to =orth >orea@11, %he BDA 2as long sus$ected as &eing a $rimary &an3 in =orth >orean money laundering schemes: all these arrests did 2as $rovide tangi&le evidence to corro&orate this claim@ ;hile the counterfeiting of United "tates? currency 2as quite disconcertingA it 2as not until the conclusion of the Forth Round of %al3s that the United "tates formally accused =orth >orea of illegally manufacturing money119 and issued a 2arning to U@"@ &an3s a&out doing &usiness 2ith the BDA@120 %he timing of this action 2as highly calculated to the have the largest im$act u$on the "i7 Party %al3s@ By 2aiting to ma3e a formal accusation follo2ing the Fourth Round of %al3sA the United "tates allo2ed $lenty of time for &ac3channel discussions leading u$ to this Fifth Round of %al3s@ =ot only this &ut the United "tates &elieved that these actions 2ould ham$er =orth >orea enough that they 2ould concede some of their demands at the start of the Fifth Round of %al3s@ %his 2as $oor di$lomatic leveraging &y the United "tates for =orth >orea is not a country that concedes to others andA 2hen it feels its &eing &ac3ed into a cornerA 2ill fire &ac3 2ith a sho2 of $hysical force@ Adding to the list of $unitive measures vis V vis =orth >orea?s money laundering
117 118
I&id@A *11@ I&id@A *12@ 119 %he actual accusation 2as surrounding high quality counterfeit W100 Bsu$ernotesC !"ourceG (harles 5@ PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#@# 120 (harles 5@ PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004#A 129@
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scheme 2as the 'cto&er 200/121 announcement that Bunder 67ecutive 'rder 1)),2CA all assets of $roliferators of ;-Ds and their delivery vehicles 2ere to &e fro0en alongside the %reasury De$artment $rohi&iting all transactions &et2een Beight =orth >orean com$anies and any U@"@ $erson and fro0e any assets that the com$anies had under U@"@ Iurisdiction@C122 In layman?s termsA the United "tates successfully fro0e many =orth >orean assets in this &an3 and issued a 2arning to United "tates? com$anies to stay a2ay from any investmentA lin3ed even in the most indirect of 2aysA to =orth >orea@ DuallyA this threat 2as utili0ed as a means to convince others to follo2 suit in the free0ing of =orth >orean assets 2hich occurred 2hen the -acanese fro0e certain =orth >orean accounts in BDA that 2ere valued at W2* million@12) %hese $unitive measures 2ere $art of a ne2 $olicy the United "tates 2as attem$ted to im$lement leading into the Fifth Round of %al3s@ %he United "tates B2as ta3ing these more aggressive tactics in the ho$e of enhancing its &argaining $o2erC a$ro$os of =orth >orea 2ithout ta3ing into consideration that they 2ere utili0ing tactics against the country 2ho mastered the utili0ation of the e7act same tactics@12* %he United "tates 2as attem$ting to $ut $ressure u$on =orth >orea to concede some of their demands heading into the Fifth Round of discussions through these harsh economic sanctions@ Utili0ing these actions against =orth >orea only did one thing though 2hich 2as ma3e =orth >orea even more u$set and
121 122
'ne month &efore the Fifth Round 2as scheduled to start@ B%reasury %argets =@ >orean 6ntities for "u$$orting ;-D ProliferationAC US Fed Ne-sA 'cto&er 12A 200/A htt$sGHHustreas@govH$ressHreleasesHIs29,*@htm@ 123 (harles 5@ PritchardA Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution Press#A 1/1@ 124 =arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 140@
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$rone to $hysically intimidating the United "tates through a variety of measures includingA as 2ill &e discussed laterA various missile launches and a nuclear test@ ;hen it comes to o&taining concessions from =orth >orea the route to $ursue is not one stee$ed in economic sanctions and thinly veiled threats@ %his only gives =orth >orea more ammunition in the theatrical $lay 2here they are the $oorA innocent country 2ho is merely utili0ing nuclear em$o2erment as a deterrent against a largerA much more threateningA enemy !readG the United "tates#@ As $reviously mentionedA one of the mainstays of =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy is the conce$tA $ur$orted &y the =orth >orean $ro$aganda machineA that the United "tates and its aggressive rhetoric are 2hat is the driving force &ehind =orth >orea?s attem$ts to gain a nuclear arsenal@ ;hat this event 2ould eventually sho2 is the different 2ays of thin3ing &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea@ It 2as the understanding of the =orth >orean delegation that this issue of the fro0en accounts 2ould &e discussed and resolved at the ne7t round of %al3s !i@e@ the Fifth Round# 2hile the United "tates delegation vie2ed this issue as com$letely detached from the "i7 Party %al3s@12/ %his lac3 of communication 2ould occlude any serious discussion from occurring during the First Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3s and &e one of the main reasons 2hy =orth >orea left the %al3s and ended u$ testing their first =uclear ;ea$on@ As is one of the main $oints of this thesisA =orth >orea utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy to gain clout u$on the international stage@ If =orth >orea does not thin3 that its voice is &eing heard or that it is not &eing ta3en seriouslyA then it counteracts this &y some out2ard dis$lay of a $hysical force@ Furthering this lac3 of a tangi&le discussion during the Fifth Round of %al3sA 2hich furthered the reasoning
125
I&id@A 1/1@
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&ehind the nuclear 2ea$ons testA 2as the issue of the 5ight ;ater Reactors stemming from the "e$tem&er 19th agreement@ *eptem.er ":th ;oint *tatement<Issue of 3ight $ater eactors At the end of the "econd Phase of the Fourth Round121 of %al3sA the si7 nations involved signed a Ioint agreement of $rinci$les !3no2n as the "e$tem&er 19th Eoint "tatement# outlining a detailed roadma$ for achieving denucleari0ation of the >orean Peninsula@124 %his statement reaffirmed that Bthe goal of the "i7 Party %al3s is the verifia&le denucleari0ation of the >orean Peninsula in a $eaceful mannerAC and $rovided that BPtQhe DPR> P2asQ committed to a&andoning all nuclear 2ea$ons and e7isting nuclear $rograms and returningA at an early dateA to the %reaty of the =on Proliferation of nuclear 2ea$ons and to IA6A safeguards@C12, -any scholars $oint to the im$ortance of this document for it 2as a formal recording of =orth >orea?s intent to denucleari0e in a $eaceful and verifia&le manner@ %he true im$ortance of this is the fact thatA if analy0ed from the "u&versive Realist $ers$ectiveA it is o&vious that this statement 2as doomed from the onset 2hich only furthered =orth >orea?s drive to2ards com$lete nucleari0ation@ 'ne of the most im$ortant $arts of this documentA the reason that it 2as doomed to failA that is rarely vie2ed as suchA is the =orth >orean demand for 5ight ;ater Rectors to &e &uilt to hel$ out their energy de$rived country@ ;ithout the assurance that mem&ers of the "i7 Party %al3sA mainly the United "tatesA 2ould construct theseA =orth >orea 2as
126 127
<eld in BeiIing from "e$tem&er 1) 19A 200/@ "eung <o Eoo and %ae <2an >2anA eds@ North Korea=s Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Securit+ !<am$shireG AshgateA 2004#A 14@ 128 Foichi Funa&ashiA The Peninsula ?uestion0 A Chronicle of the Second Nuclear Crisis !;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ing Institution PressA 2004#A )92@
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not going to &udge on the nuclear issue@129 %his issue of the 5;R 2as a continuation of =orth >orea?s frustration stemming from the clause in the 199* Agreed Frame2or3 that =orth >orea 2ould shut do2n their infant nuclear $rogram if >6D' !>orean Peninsula 6nergy Develo$ment 'rgani0ation# 1)0 constructed a 5;R in $lace of the =uclear Plant@ %his construction never manifested itself through di$lomatic tight ro$ing &y the United "tates@ During this discussionA the United "tates claimed that a single 5;R 2ould cost around t2o to three &illion dollars to &uild and ta3e u$ to a decade to constructD2ith this 3ind of commitment the United "tates refused to even &egin the official stages of discussions on the issue until =orth >orea 2as com$letely denucleari0ed@1)1 %his 2ould not 2or3 alongside =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy for one of the reasons for the utili0ation of said di$lomatic tool is to o&tain concessionsA such as the 5;RsA to &uttress =orth >orea?s ailing economy and atro$hying infrastructure@ -a3ing =orth >orea &asically give u$ this di$lomatic o$tion 2ithoutA firstA giving them concessions goes against the entire $rinci$le that is =uclear Di$lomacy@ %he only reason that this statement 2as agreed on 2ith such an occlusionA &eing the United "tates refusal to act until =orth >orea 2as verifia&ly denucleari0edA 2as that the United "tates s3irted this issue to the side saying it 2ould &e 2illing to leave aside the issue of civilian usage of nuclear technology for no2 so that this agreement 2ould $ass@1)2 %his agreement 2as merely another case of em$ty rhetoric utili0ed amongst the
129
"eung <o Eoo and %ae <2an >2anA eds@ North Korea=s Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Securit+ !<am$shireG AshgateA 2004#A 1,@ 130 >6D' 2as founded on -arch 1/A 199/ &y a conglomeration of the United "tatesA "outh >oreaA and Ea$an@ Its $ur$ose 2as the im$lementation of the 199* U@"@ =orth >orea Agreed Frame2or3 2hich fro0e =orth >oreaMs indigenous nuclear $o2er $lant in Fong&yon in e7change for the construction of a light 2ater reactor nuclear $o2er $lant@ %he originally target date of com$letion of this 5;R 2as 200) &ut it 3e$t getting $ushed &ac3 through di$lomatic leveraging &y the United "tates@ 131 I&id@A 1,@ 132 I&id@A 1,@
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si7 nations $resent in the "i7 Party %al3s all of 2hom had their o2n $olicy goals in mind@1)) %he $ro&lem 2ith thisA es$ecially in relation to the United "tatesA "outh >oreaA and Ea$an is that in dealing 2ith =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacyA one mustA at least actA as if they are $lacing =orth >orea?s $olitical agenda first@ 'ther2iseA =orth >orea 2ill counteract this 2ith a $hysical dis$lay of force 2hich 2ould eventually occur after the First Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3s@ It 2as 2ith this agreement &eing signed that signaled the end of the Forth Round of %al3s and 2ould &e on the forefront of the agenda at the start of the Fifth Round@ Before continuing on into a discussion of the Fifth Round of %al3sA it is im$ortant to reiterate the argument of this thesis 2hich is that that the >im regime utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy as a means to maintain $o2er through sta&ili0ing internal dissent 2hilst o&taining e7ternal concessions to aid their dila$idated infrastructure@
The Fifth ound= +hase " >: No4 ? "" No4 #@@-A
A $hole 3ot of Nothing 'n Eanuary 1/thA 2001A in an intervie2 2ith Dan Rather for 79 4inutesA the =orth >orean 8ice -inister >im .ye g2an stated that BP2Qe have the o$$ortunity to secure a system for sto$$ing the $roliferation of 2ea$ons of mass destruction@ I thin3 this 3ind of o$$ortunity 2ill not come again@ Under current conditionsA 2here there is no trustA ho2 can 2e give u$ our 2ea$ons firstKC1)* %his quotation is a good indicator of the
133
For instanceA Ea$an 2anted re$arations for the 3idna$$ing of their citi0ens &y =orth >orea and (hina 2anted to maintain its favora&le $osition in these discussions and on the international stage@ 1)* I&id@A 1)2@
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atmos$here of contem$t surrounding the First Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3s: =orth >orea 2anted the air of gravity surrounding the %al3s to &e fully understood 2hile rationali0ing their stance on nuclear 2ea$onry@ %his 2as also an attem$t to force the United "tates into a corner utili0ing Brin3manshi$@ =orth >orea 2as setting the stage so that 2hen they did not denucleari0e it 2ould &e vie2ed as a failure on the $art of the United "tates@ =orth >orea is ascri&ing their ina&ility to denucleari0e to the United "tates? threatening overtones 2hilst trying to maneuver in such a 2ay that they o&tain the 5;Rs they so des$erately need@ =either the United "tates nor =orth >orea 2ere 2illing to &udge on the issues of the 5;Rs during the First Phase of %al3s@ %he United "tates 2anted verifia&le denucleari0ation &efore any investment in 5;Rs 2ould &e made and =orth >orea 2ould not denucleari0e until they received the 5;Rs@ A consistent issue that $lagued the "i7 Party %al3s 2as this ina&ility to agree on the semantics of the %al3sDon 2hat 2as to &e included in themA 2hat 2as notA and also the $rocess &y 2hich anything 2ould &e im$lemented@ For instanceA =orth >orea 2anted the "e$tem&er 19th Eoint "tatement to &e im$lemented in $hases and refused to ma3e any attem$ts at denucleari0ation until the financial sanctions $laced u$on themA via Banco Delta AsiaA 2ere lifted@1)/ %his 2as in line 2ith their utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy and 2ould &e their !odus o erandi throughout the entirety of the "i7 Party %al3s@ %he t2o days that encom$assed the First Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3s 2ere un su&stantive for the deadloc3 regarding the issues discussed a&ove@ An 54entful Bear Follo2ing the conclusion of the First Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3sA there 2as
135
B>im >ye .2an Intervie2ed in BeiIingCA KCNAA =ovem&er 12A 200/A htt$GHH222@glo&alsecurity@orgH2mdHli&raryHne2sHd$r3H200/Hd$r3 0/111* 3cna01@htm@
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an air of uncertainty as to 2hen the ne7t $hase 2ould ta3e $lace and the events that occurred after this First Phase 2ould $ut into question if the %al3s 2ould ever resume@ Directly follo2ing the conclusion of the First PhaseA the U@"@ Agency for International Develo$ment $u&lically stated its cessation of food aid to =orth >orea and >6D' &egan $reliminary discussions regarding the dissolution of the 5;R $roIect@1)1 'n to$ of thisA the United "tates 2as a co s$onsor on a resolution $resented &efore the United =ations .eneral Assem&ly that o$enly condemned =orth >orea?s $oor human rights record@1)4 %hese t2o thingsA alongside the continuation of the free0e of the =orth >orean accounts in the BDAA greatly $iqued the =orth >oreans@ %he United "tates attem$ted to assuage this tension &y offering to send its main negotiator to the "P%A (hristo$her <illA into a &riefing session 2ith =orth >orea regarding the economic sanctions@ %hings did not go as $lanned andA in Decem&er 200/A the =orth >orean -inistry of Foreign Affairs !-FA# o$enly denounced the actions of the United "tates and dre2 a direct correlation &et2een the resum$tion of the "i7 Party %al3s to the United "tates? attitude@1), 'nce againA =orth >orea $laced the &lame on the United "tates in an attem$t to &ac3 them into a corner andA ho$efullyA force their hand so to save face amongst the international community@ Furthering the dissolution of the tenuous relationshi$ &et2een =orth >orea and the United "tates 2as the Eanuary 2001 2ithdra2alA &y >6D'A of all 2or3ers from the 5;R site in =orth >orea@1)9 %his 2asA in $artA di$lomatic leveraging &y the United "tates
136
=arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 140@ 137 I&id@A 140@ 138 BF- "$o3esman Blasts 8irulent 'utcries of U@"@ Am&assador to "@ >oreaAC KCNAA Decem&er 10A 200/A htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH200/H200/12Hne2s12H12@htm@ 139 =arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G
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to force =orth >orea to sto$ forging United "tates currency &ut all that it accom$lished 2as to continue the do2n2ard s$iral of relations &et2een the t2o countries@ In -archA there 2as a meeting in =e2 For3 &et2een the t2o countries in 2hich =orth >orea reem$hasi0ed that lifting economic sanctions against it 2ould &e a $rerequisite for the =orth?s return to the "i7 Party %al3s@1*0 In a ty$ical sho2 of Brin3manshi$A =orth >orea em$hasi0ed the im$ortance of &ringing them &ac3 to the "P% &y launching t2o anti shi$ missiles into the "ea of Ea$an@1*1 %he United "tates res$onded &y having the U@"@ De$artment of the %reasury add a "2iss com$any to the list of Bdesignees su$$orting the $roliferation of ;-D for their involvement 2ith =orth >orea@C1*2 =eedless to sayA this 2as not the res$onse that =orth >orea e7$ected: they res$onded accordingly and escalated tensions further@ In -ayA there 2ere re$orts of sightings of $reliminary $re$arations for a missile test in =orth >orea@ %his 2asA unfortunatelyA follo2ed &y >6D'?s announcement that it 2ould officially &e terminating the 5;R $roIect indefinitely@1*) In res$onse to this actionA the -FA announced that the escalation of hostility &y the United "tates 2ould only &e met 2ith an increase in military &uildu$ &y =orth >orea@ <o2everA they did e7tend an invitation to (hristo$her <ill to visit Pyongyang1** 2hichA in returnA 2as reIected &y the
RoutledgeA 2010#A 141@ 140 I&id@A 141@ 141 I&id@A 141@ 142 B"2iss (om$anyA Individual Designated &y %reasury for "u$$orting =orth >orean ;-D ProliferationAC U>S> 5e art!ent of the Treasur+A -arch )0A 2001A htt$GHHustreas@govH$ressHreleasesHIs*1**@htm@ 143 =arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 141@ 144 %his is inline 2ith =uclear Di$lomacy for =orth >orea 2ants to maintain their air of su$eriorityHthreatening nature &ut still needs to &e some2hat di$lomatic so states 2ill still &argain 2ith it and not totally refuse di$lomatic engagement !e@g@ =on state actors#@
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United "tates government@1*/ %he a&Iect refusal to engage 2ith =orth >orea and the continual reci$rocated elevation of threats manifested itself in a dis$lay of military &ra0en &y the =orth on Euly /th !or the afternoon of Euly *th in America#@ %houghA &efore analy0ing the details &ehind this eventA it is im$ortant to &rea3 do2n the a&ove information and sho2 ho2 it su$$orts the argument laid out in the thesis@ %he argument sti$ulates that =orth >orea utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy to gain clout u$on the international stageA to maintain the su&servience of the =orth >orean $eo$leA and to gain concessions to &olster its struggling economy@ %he varia&le that 2ill &e utili0ed as a e7$lanation regarding ho2 these actions &y the United "tates only &olster =orth >orea?s utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy is the 2ithdra2al of food aid@ %he conce$t that the American cessation of food aid 2ould someho2 convince the ruling $arty of =orth >orea to lighten its demands is a&solutely ludicrous@ ActuallyA this action hel$s add validity to the conce$t of =uclear Di$lomacy and furthers the >im?s hold on $o2er@ %he 2ithdra2al of food aid from =orth >orea &y the United "tates 2as utili0ed &y the =orth >orean $ro$aganda machine to $ur$ort the conce$t of the evil American forcesDfurther Iustifying their need for =uclear Di$lomacy to $rotect the =orth >orean $eo$le@ 'ne 2ould not ta3e food a2ay from a starving dog for that 2ould merely antagoni0e the animal and the same can &e a$$lied to =orth >orea@ =orth >orea utili0es =uclear Di$lomacyA in $artA to o&tain food aid from the United "tates soA &y ta3ing this a2ayA the United "tates is merely giving =orth >orea a reason to utili0e this form of di$lomacy@ =ot only this &ut =orth >orea vie2s this cessation of food aid as an affront to their $osition on their international stageDif they allo2 the United
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"tates to dictate their inta3e of aid then it questions ho2 much clout they truly $osses on the 2orld stage and can &ring into question the validity of the ruling $arty@ It is 2ith this in mind that the discussion regarding the Euly *th missile launch can occur@ Not Bour Typical )th of ;uly Fire%or,s *ho% From ) a@m@ until /G20 $@m@ on Euly /th !=orth >orean time#A =orth >orea launched seven B"cudA =o DongA and %ae$o Dong 2C missiles1*1 in the "ea of Ea$an des$ite strong international 2arnings against such actions@ %he ne7t dayA the -FA issued a statement in 2hich they noted that Bthe missile launches had &een $art of routine military e7ercises to increase defense ca$acityCA that the >orean Peo$le?s Army !>PA# 2ould continue 2ith missile launch e7ercises in the near futureA and that the DPR> 2ould ta3e sterner $hysical actions if they faced increasing $ressure from the international community@1*4 %hese actions 2ere ta3en out of frustration over the ina&ility to ma3e in $rogress in the conte7t of the "i7 Party %al3s soA as is common$lace 2ith =uclear Di$lomacyA 2hen things do not a$$ear to &e going =orth >orea?s 2ayA they use a dis$lay of &ra0en $hysical force to sho2 the gravity of the situation@ A little over a 2ee3 laterA on Euly 1/A the U="( ado$ted Resolution 119/ 2hich required mem&er states to $revent the transfer and $rocurement Bof missiles and missile related itemsA materialsA goods and technology to and from =orth >oreaA as 2ell as the transfer of any financial resources in relation to =orth >orea?s missile or ;-D
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%he firstA fourthA and si7th missiles 2ere classifiedA res$ectivelyA as "cud DA "cud (A and "cud 6R missiles 2hile the secondA fifthA and seventh as =o Dong and the third &eing classified as a %ae$o Dong 2 missile@ %he "cud and =o Dong missiles 2ere successfully launched in the northeast direction &et2een the Russian Far 6ast and <o33aido Island !=orthern Ea$an# &ut the %ae$o Dong 2 launch failed misera&le 2ith the missile disintegrating mere tens of seconds after its launch@ !"ourceG Adam ;ardA ed@A B=orth >orea?s / Euly -issile %estsA Strate'ic Co!!entsA vol 12A issue 1 !5ondonG %aylor X Francis 5tdA Euly 2001##@ 147 BDPR> Foreign -inistry "$o3esman on Its -issile 5aunchesAC KCNAA Euly 1A 2001A htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200104Hne2s04H04@htm@
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$rograms@C1*, ;hile this a$$eared to &e a very im$ortant resolutionA es$ecially &ecause it meant that (hina 2as agreeing 2ith the United "tates since they are &oth on the U="( and have the $o2er to veto any resolutionA the resolution did not $ermit the use of force so there 2as no means of im$lementing the resolution@ ;ithout having the a&ility to forceful chec3 =orth >orean cargo shi$s for ;-D materialA the mem&er state of the U= 2ould have to as3 the $ermission of the cre2 to &oard the shi$ 2hich they o&viously 2ould not &e granted@ It is for this reason that this Resolution can &e seen as em$ty rhetoric and a di$lomatic master$iece &y (hina@ (hina 2as a&le to maintain its face in the international community &y $lacing $unitive measures u$on =orth >orea &ut did not cri$$le the =orth >orean regime through the a&sence of this use of force measure@ %he =orth >orean res$onse to this action 2as arguing that the United "tates 2as attem$ting to Bdescri&e the issue &et2een the DPR> and the U@"@ as an issue &et2een the DPR> and the U= and form an international alliance against the DPR>@C1*9 %hey 2ent on to state that the DPR> 2ould B&olster its 2ar deterrent for self defense in every 2ay &y all means and methodsC sending a clear message to the United "tates@1/0 'nce againA =orth >orea is Iustifying their utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy as stemming from the harsh rhetoric of the United "tates in an attem$t to $lace the &lame for =orth >orea?s actions on the United "tates in ho$es that this 2ould force the United "tates to change their =orth >orea $olicy@ %he o$$osite occurred and the United "tates res$onded &y stating that the Ban3 of (hina had also recently fro0en some =orth >orean assets in its
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-acau Ban3 2hich 2as a ver&al sla$ in the face &y the United "tates for they 2ere $u&lically ac3no2ledging that (hinaA =orth >orea?s most im$ortant allyA had sided 2ith the United "tates on this issue@1/1 ;hile these actions &y (hina should &e vie2ed more as (hina saving face amongst the international community as o$$osed to turning on =orth >oreaA the United "tates used these actions as di$lomatic leveraging and s3e2ed them as (hina turning on =orth >orea@ For some reasonA the United "tates &elieved that going toe to toe 2ith =orth >orea 2ould lead to =orth >orea &ac3ing do2n and toning do2n its demands &utA as can &e e7$ected &y no2A the o$$osite ha$$ened manifesting itself in the 'cto&er 2001 =uclear %est@ The 1cto.er Nuclear Test %he refusal of the United "tates to unfree0e its financial sanctions and the continual ina&ility for either =orth >orea or the United "tates to ma3e any $rogress to2ards finding common ground on a sle2 of issues &ecame a $oint of frustration for =orth >orea@ %he failure of the Euly *thH/th missile launches to gain any concessions from the United "tates truly $ut =orth >orea in an a232ard situationDtheir !odus o erandiA the utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy to gain concessions and to move the dialogue in a more favora&le $osition for themselvesD2as failing@ =ot only this &ut (hinaA =orth >orea?s largest allyA not only let a U="( Resolution $ass against =orth >orea 2ithout vetoing it &ut the (entral Ban3 of (hina follo2ed the United "tates is free0ing =orth >orean assets in the BDA@ ;hile the aura in the international environment 2as slo2ly turning against =orth >oreaA =orth >orea did have one maIor advantage in having the "P% stalledDit allo2ed them time to further develo$ their nuclear arsenal@
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In mid August 2001A memos 2ere circulating throughout ;ashington that there 2as surmounting evidence of a nuclear test in the ma3ings in =orth >orea: around a sus$ected test site there 2as sus$icious vehicle movement alongside B2ire &undles used to monitor an underground test@C1/2 Follo2ing this discoveryA on "e$tem&er 21stA (hristo$her <ill $u&lically revealed that he $ro$osed a B&ilateral 2or3ing grou$ Palongside =orth >oreaQ to discuss financial sanctions on the condition that the =orth >oreans came &ac3 to the "i7 Party %al3s@C1/) ;hile it is dis$uted ho2 much the discovery of the nuclear test site had on this announcement it should &e noted the time $eriod and the location in 2hich this announcement 2as made@ %his announcement came a&out a month after the discover of the nuclear test site and 2as delivered at the United =ationsDensuring that =orth >oreaA and the rest of the 2orldA 2ould hear it@ %his can &e vie2ed as an attem$t &y the United "tates to sho2 the 2orld that they 2ere actively attem$ting to engage in discussions 2ith =orth >orea there&y attem$ting to circumvent the stalemate that 2as occluding the "i7 Party %al3s@ A maIor do2nside to this deliveryA and the reason 2hy it can &e vie2ed as em$ty $olitical rhetoric aimed at the United "tates saving face amongst the international communityA is that the United "tates sti$ulated that =orth >orea !ust return to the "P% in order for a discussion regarding the financial sanctions to even &e &roached@ It should &e &ecoming quite a$$arent that ma3ing =orth >orea act firstA 2ithout giving them any concessions is doomed to fail@ %his is es$ecially true 2hen the to$ic at hand is one of the $illars of their =uclear Di$lomacyDeconomic incentives@
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%he failure to reach a common ground 2ith =orth >oreaA once againA &egan to negatively manifest itself on 'cto&er ) 2hen the -FA released a three $oint statement 2hich e7$lained thatG 1# =orth >orea 2as going to conduct a nuclear testA 2# =orth >orea 2ould never use the nuclear 2ea$on first and 2ould strictly $rohi&it the threat of a nuclear 2ea$on transferA and )# the =orth >orean government 2ould 2or3 its hardest to Breali0e the denucleari0ation of the $eninsula and give momentum to 2orld2ide nuclear disarmament and ultimate denucleari0ation@C1/* ;hat is interesting is the innate contradiction &et2een the first and third $ointsD=orth >orea 2as going to test a nuclear 2ea$on &ut 2as fully committed to denucleari0ing the >orean Peninsula@ Des$ite this contradictionA this statement is com$letely in line 2ith =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy@ In order for =orth >orea?s threats to &e ta3en seriouslyA and to continue the ra$$ort it has constructed 2ithin the international communityA =orth >orea needs to continue the gro2th of its =uclear Program@ %his 2ayA the threatening overtures that they ta3e vis V vis the international community are seen as bona fide 2hich increases the chance of them manifesting themselves in the form of concessionsDeither $hysical or monetarily@ %he mentioning of the commitment to the denucleari0ation of the >orean Peninsula 2as a mere $olitical $erfunctory move to elucidate the feeling that =orth >orea?s =uclear Program 2as for defensive $ur$oses there&y directing the &lame for the develo$ment of the $rogram onto the United "tates@ It 2as from this statement that the motions 2ere $ut in $lace for the actual nuclear test on 'cto&er 9th@ 'n 'cto&er 9thA 2001A around eleven a@m@ >orean timeA =orth >orea conducted its first official nuclear test in the =ortheast region of the country@ Follo2ing this 2as a t2o
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BDPR> Foreign -inistry (larifies "tand on =e2 -easure to Bolters ;ar DeterrentAC KCNAA 'cto&er )A 2001A htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200110Hne2s10H0*@htm@
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day $eriod in 2hich =orth >orea let the 2orld revel in its actions &efore having the -FA issue an 'cto&er 11th statement in 2hich it reiterated its stance that it conducted the nuclear test &ecause of threatening overtures from the United "tates &ut 2as still dedicated to the denucleari0ation of the >orean Peninsula@1// %he statement continued &y saying that the nuclear test Bdoes not contradict the "e$tem&er 19th Eoint "tatement under 2hich it committed itself to dismantle nuclear 2ea$ons and a&andon the e7isting =uclear ProgramC citing that the nuclear 2ea$ons test constituted a $ositive measure for the im$lementation of the "e$tem&er 19th Eoint "tatement@1/1 %his statement concluded 2ith the omni$otent 2arning that if the United "tates increased the $ressure u$on the <ermit >ingdom that =orth >orea 2ould vie2 this as a declaration of 2ar and ta3e the a$$ro$riate $hysical countermeasures@1/4 %his 2as a merely reiteration of the 'cto&er )rd statement 2ith the only variance &eing that =orth >orea $roduced tangi&le $roof of their nuclear ca$a&ilities 2hich em$hasi0ed the im$ortance of time in relations to moving $ast the stalemate@ As is common$lace 2ith most =orth >orean $rovocationsA the res$onse to these actions 2as the 'cto&er 1*th unanimous ado$tion of a U="( ResolutionDthis time &eing Resolution 141,@ %his required the mem&er states of the United =ations to ta3e the necessary measures to ma3e it difficult for =orth >orea to acquire Ba# maIor conventional 2ea$on systemsA &# all itemsA materialsA equi$mentA goodsA and technology 2hich could contri&ute to nuclear related &allistic missile relatedA or other ;-D related $rogramsA
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and c# lu7ury goods@C1/, 5i3e $revious resolutionsA Resolution 141, mentioned (ha$ter 8II and Article *1 of the U= (harterA 2hich Ballo2ed for such measures as interru$tion of economic relations and the severance of di$lomatic relationsCA &utA once againA did not mention Article *2 2hich allo2ed the use of military force to enforce said regulations@ 'nce againA this 2as more em$ty rhetoric &y the United =ationsDattem$ting to $unish the =orth >orean regime 2ithout $roviding the means &y 2hich to u$hold this $unishment@ An 6olte7Face: The !hanging U* +olicy Apropos 1f North Korea %he United "tatesA instead of a&iding &y their normal $ra7is of merely utili0ing the U= to $unish =orth >oreaA changed their $aradigm a$ro$os of =orth >orea and o$ted for direct engagement@ 'n 'cto&er )1stA a mere t2enty t2o days after the First =uclear ;ea$ons %estA &ilateral discussions &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea 2ere held in BeiIing@ During these tal3sA <ill reiterated the United "tates 2illingness to resolve the BDA issue se$arately from the "P% and it 2as under this &ac3dro$ that =orth >orea announced it 2ould return to the "P%@1/9 %o2ards the end of =ovem&erA additional U" DPR> &ilateral meetings 2ere held in BeiIing in 2hich the B6arly <arvestC $ro$osal 2as $resented to =orth >orea@110 %his $ro$osal set forth a reci$rocal arrangement &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea in 2hichA if =orth >orea sto$$ed its nuclear activities at =yong&yon111A allo2ed IA6A
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United =ations "ecurity (ouncilA Resolution 141, !2001#A "HR6"H141,A 'cto&er 1*A 2001@ -i3e (hinoyA 4eltdo-n0 The &nside Stor+ of the North Korea Nuclear Crisis !=e2 For3G "t@ -artin?s PressA 200,#A )01 )04@ 160 =arushige -ichishitaA North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899: !=e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010#A 14)@ 161 %he Fong&yon =uclear "cientific Research (enterA a maIor com$onent of the =orth >orean =uclear ProgramA is located here
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ins$ectors &ac3 into the countryA $resented a list of its nuclear related $rograms and facilitiesA and shut do2n its nuclear test sites &y 200, then the United "tates 2ould send food and energy aidA discuss 2ays in 2hich to &est end the BDA sanctionsA normali0e di$lomatic relationsA and esta&lish a $eace regime on the >orean Peninsula@112 'nce againA attem$ting to have =orth >orea ma3e the first move 2as a $olitical nightmare and the =orth >orean regime 2as o$$osed to these terms and 2ould only consider them if the BDA issue 2as first addressed@ Des$ite thisA one must analy0e the im$ortance of the 'cto&er =uclear %est in relations to =uclear Di$lomacy and &ringing the United "tates to the negotiating ta&le@ %he United "tates decision to &egin &ilateral negotiations 2ith =orth >oreaA something that 2as anti$odal to their strategy utili0ed u$ until this $ointA 2as $artially a result of =orth >orea?s successful utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy@ =orth >orea 2as not $leased that their list of demands 2ere not &eing treated as seriously as they should and vie2ed this as a direct affront to their $osition amongst the 2orld community@ It 2as under this $rete7t that the "econd Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3s &egan on Decem&er 1,thA 2001@
The Fifth ound= +hase II >Decem.er "Cth7##ndD #@@EA
%his $hase of the %al3s started off 2ith >im >ye .2anA the =orth >orean re$resentative to the "P% and the First 8ice -inister of the -inistry of Foreign AffairsA stating that the "e$tem&er 19th Eoint "tatement 2ould not &e im$lemented until the BDA sanctions 2ere lifted@11) %he issue of the BDA sanctions 2ere &eing hashed out outside
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the conte7ts of the "P% &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea and culminatedA at the end of the Fifth Round of %al3sA 2ith =orth >orea critici0ing the United "tates for failing to lift the sanctions 2hich occurred concurrently as the United "tates discovered rene2ed nuclear actives in =orth >orea@11* %his ina&ility to come to terms 2ithA not only the terms 2ith 2hich the BDA issue 2ould &e metA &ut the ina&ility to figure out the structure of the discussions constantly $lagued this round of the "i7 Party %al3s@ It 2as events li3e this one that occluded a serious discourse during this round of %al3s and &eget events li3e the Euly *th -issile 5aunch at the 'cto&er 9th =uclear ;ea$ons %est@ %hese actionsA thenA can &e seen as an attem$t to Ium$start this stalemateA via =uclear Di$lomacyA and have the United "tates ma3e some concessions to =orth >orea in this de$artment@ -uch li3e the First Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3sA the "econd Phase did not ma3e any $rogress to2ards dealing 2ith =orth >orea?s =uclear ;ea$ons Program &ecause of certain road&loc3s such as this stalemate over the BDA issue@ All that 2as formulated during this $hase 2as the reaffirmation that each side 2as committed to im$lementing the "e$tem&er 19th Eoint "tatement 2hich had come into &eing over a year ago and yet there 2as still no tangi&le evidence of the si7 nations moving any closer to the ratification and im$lementation of said statement@ It 2ould not &e until the end of the %hird Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3sA in Fe&ruary 2004 that an action $lan 2ould &e ado$ted on ho2 to im$lement the 200/ Eoint "tatement@ %he slo2 $ace at 2hich the "P% o$erated also had a negative affect u$on dealing 2ith =orth >orea and $layed directly into their utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy@ In
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dealing 2ith a country that is a gro2ing nuclear threat time is one of the most im$ortant factors for it is a necessity to find a common ground 2ith said country &efore their nuclear arsenal is fully functional and &egins to out2ardly e7$and@ Part of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy centered around utili0ing itA at certain 3ey timesA to remind the 2orld of the im$ortance of haste in dealing 2ith their demands@ By not actively engaging 2ith =orth >orea andA insteadA allo2ing time to $ass the United "tates and the other nations of the "i7 Party %al3s $layed into =orth >orea?s hand@ %hey allo2ed =orth >orea to gain a nuclear arsenal 2hilst allo2ing them to hide &ehind the veil of innocence $ur$orted &y the tem$oral longevity &et2een meetings@ 'ne 2ould e7$ect thatA since no $rogress 2as made during this $hase of the %al3sA =orth >orea 2ould act out on the international stage ala 2hat occurred follo2ing the First Phase of %al3s@ %he reason that this did not ha$$enA there&y holding u$ the assum$tions set forth in this $a$erA is that the United "tates 2as concurrently engaging in &ilateral tal3s 2ith =orth >orea duringA and follo2ingA the "econd Phase of %al3s@ In factA in Eanuary 2004A there 2as an agreement reached &et2een the United "tates and =orth >orea du&&ed the BBerlin AgreementsC11/ in 2hich =orth >orea $romised to shut do2n their nuclear facilities in =yong&yon 2ithin a si7ty day timeframe andA in e7changeA 2ould receive heavy fuel oil !<F'#111Dthe details of said agreement 2ere set to &e formali0ed at the ne7t session of the "i7 Party %al3s@114 'nce againA a meeting
165
It 2as named this &ecause the tal3s 2ere held in Berlin@ ;hat is interesting is that these tal3s did not occur in BeiIing 2hich had &ecome common$lace &et2een =orth >orea and the United "tates@ =orth >orea allo2ing this meeting to &e held in a ;estern countryA and outside their comfort 0oneA is quite unusual for the <ermit >ingdom@ 166 %he e7act amount of <F' 2as /00A000 tons $er year@ !"ourceG -i3e (hinoyA 4eltdo-n0 The &nside Stor+ of the North Korea Nuclear Crisis !=e2 For3G "t@ -artin?s PressA 200,##@ 167 -i3e (hinoyA 4eltdo-n0 The &nside Stor+ of the North Korea Nuclear Crisis !=e2 For3G "t@ -artin?s PressA 200,#A )20@
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occurred &et2een these t2o $o2ers 2here they reached a conclusion &ut refused to fully im$lement it until a later date@ AlsoA later in EanuaryA =orth >orean and American officials met again to discuss the financial sanctions the United "tates still had against =orth >orea &ut there 2as not any $rogress made &et2een the t2o@ It 2as 2ith this in mind that the %hirdA and finalA Phase of the Fifth Round of %al3s &egan@
The Fifth ound= +hase III >Fe.ruary Cth7 "'thD #@@FA
%he main em$hasis heading into this $hase of %al3s 2as finally ado$ting the 200/ Eoint "tatement 2hich meant intense $olitic3ing so that all involved $arties 2ould find the terms agreea&le@ 'n the final day of the %al3sA Fe&ruary 1)thA this came into fruition 2ith a $lan of action to ado$t the Eoint "tatement finally &eing agreed u$on@ %his $lan 2ould &e im$lemented in t2o $hases 2ith the first &eing a si7ty day initial $hase in 2hich =orth >orea 2ould Bshut do2n and seal for the $ur$ose of eventual a&andonment the =yong&yon =uclear FacilityA including the re$rocessing facilityA and invite &ac3 IA6A $ersonnelC 2ith the other countries $roviding Bemergency energy assistance equivalent to /0A000 tons of <F'@C11, 'nce this 2as com$letedA the second $hase 2ould &e im$lemented in 2hich =orth >orea 2ould $rovide a com$lete declaration of all their nuclear $rograms and all e7isting nuclear facilities 2ould &e disa&led and in return the other countries 2ould $rovide =orth >orea 2ith BeconomicA energyA and humanitarian assistance u$ to the equivalent of one million tons of <F'A including the initial shi$ment equivalent to /0A 000 tons@C119 Alongside this 2as the $romise that the United "tates and =orth >orea 2ould continue the discussions regarding the BDA sanctions 2ithin thirty
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days of the conclusion of the Fifth Round of %al3s@140 In -archA directly follo2ing this round of %al3sA the United "tates De$artment of the %reasury unfro0e roughly t2enty five million dollars that 2ere fro0en in BDAD effectively lifting the $re Fifth Round "anctions@141 %his 2ould &e follo2edA a fe2 months laterA 2ith =orth >orea shutting do2n and sealing their nuclear reactors there&y fulfilling their end of the agreement@ %his raises the issue of 2hy did =orth >orea follo2 through 2ith 2hat they $romised seeing that closing the nuclear reactors 2ouldA argua&lyA end their utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy for they could no longer threat the usage of nuclear 2ea$ons to gain concessions from other $o2ers@ %his issue can &e s3irted aside for t2o reasonsG the first &eing that =orth >orea has toA occasionallyA concede to some demands so that they a$$ear rational enough to &argain 2ith in the conte7t of the international community@ If =orth >orea only threatened other 2orld $o2ers 2ithout ever sho2ing their 2illingness to 2or3 alongside said $o2ers then no one 2ould &e 2illing to coo$erate 2ith them or attem$t to reach a common groundDmuch li3e ho2 countries refuse to engage 2ith certain non state actors such as Al +aeda@ %he 3ey term in =uclear Di$lomacy is di$lomacyDthe art of dealing 2ith other countries in an effective manner@ It 2ould &e very ineffective to only demand concessions from other countries 2ithout ever 2illing to sho2n one?s 2illingness to give &ac3@ %he second reason 2hy this issue is not as serious as it a$$ears is that it is almost common$lace 3no2ledge that =orth >orea has more clandestine nuclear reactors@ %he
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-i3e (hinoyA 4eltdo-n0 The &nside Stor+ of the North Korea Nuclear Crisis !=e2 For3G "t@ -artin?s PressA 200,#A )21@ 171 U@"@ De$artment of the %reasuryA B"tatement &y the DAD .laser on the Dis$osition of DPR> Related Funds Fro0en at Banco Delta Asia@C <P )22A -arch 19A 2004@
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sti$ulations of the Eoint "tatement laid out that =orth >orea had to disclose all of their nuclear facilitiesA allo2 IA6A ins$ectors &ac3 into their countryA and close off said reactors in order to receive the aid $romised &y the other countries@ %here is no tangi&le evidenceA a$art from conIectureA that =orth >orea $osses these hidden nuclear sites so there is no reason for =orth >orea to declare that they e7ist &ecause no one can $rove other2ise@ %his agreement $lays quite 2ell into =orth >orea?s handDthey can declare that they are nuclear freeA receive the concessions that they dearly needA and yet secretly maintain their nuclear 2ea$ons@ %his 2ay if things are not going their 2ay or if other countries are &eginning to &ac3trac3 on their $romises !readG the United "tates and the 199* Agreed Frame2or3# =orth >orea canA once againA declare themselves a nucleari0ed state and resume their utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy@
!hapter Fi4e: !onclusion
$hat $e (a4e 3earned %he argument laid out in this thesis is that =orth >orea utili0es =uclear Di$lomacy to accom$lish three main goalsG maintaining $o2er over its $eo$leA have a voice 2ithin the international communityA and to hel$ &uttress its ailing infrastructure@ %he 2ay =uclear Di$lomacy is utili0ed to maintain the su&servience of the =orth >orean $eo$le is through the constantA internally constructedA outside threat that Iustifies the utili0ation of >im Eong Il?s B-ilitary FirstC $olicy@ By 3ee$ing the military on constant high alert and increasing =orth >orea?s nuclear arsenalA >im Eong Il ma3es the conce$t of a villainous and threatening America a tangi&le notion@ It is through this tangi&le manifestation that >im Eong Il and the =orth >orean $ro$aganda machine can im$ress u$on the =orth >orean $eo$le their need for >im Eong Il as their $rotector@
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%his utili0ation of =uclear Di$lomacy forms a collective identityA utili0ing the (onstructivist lensA amongst the =orth >orean $eo$le that >im Eong Il is the last line of resistance &et2een the innocent =orth >orean $eo$le and the villainous ;est there&y Iustifying his rule@ If it 2ere not for this constant threat $osed &y the outside 2orldA the =orth >orean $eo$le 2ould &egin to see ho2 dire their situation is and >im Eong Il?s hold on $o2er 2ould halter for there 2ould no longer &e need for himA and his B-ilitary FirstC $olicyA to $rotect the $eo$le@ =uclear Di$lomacy is utili0ed to gain clout on the international stage for it $rovides something that the rest of the 2orld must ta3e into account 2hen formulating their foreign $olitical agenda@ =orth >oreaA a$art from their nuclear arsenalA has nothing of im$ortance to offer on the 2orld stage@ %heir infrastructure has atro$hied since the do2nfall of the U""R and there are no natural resources $resent thereDthe only thing they have to offer on the 2orld stage that ma3es them of im$ortance is their volatile threats of a nuclear holocaust@ It is &ecause of said arsenal that countries must al2ays account for the =orth >orean varia&le 2hen formulating 6ast Asian $olicy o$tions@ =uclear Di$lomacy guarantees that =orth >orea?s voice 2ill al2ays &e audi&le on the 2orld stage and is one of the reasons 2hy =orth >orea 2ill never denucleari0e@ =o matter 2hat incentives are $resented to =orth >oreaA denucleari0ation means that =orth >orea looses their largest &argaining tool on the 2orld stage and the varia&le that hel$s maintain the vie2 of the villainous outsider@ %he threat of the =orth >orean nuclear arsenal $resents the $erfect means &y 2hich to gain concessions from the outside 2orld and &uttress their ailing economy@ =orth >orea is constantly in dire need of aidA &oth $hysical and monetaryA to continue to
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function &ut it cannot merely as3 for said aid for that 2ould deconstruct the image set forth &y the =orth >orean $ro$aganda machine that =orth >orea is the greatest country in the 2orld@ =ot only thisA &ut receiving unconditional aid from the United "tates 2ould go against decades of $ro$aganda 2hich hel$ formulate the collective identity of the United "tates as this evil outside force set on the destruction of the =orth@ If this image 2ere deconstructed then >im Eong Il 2ould lose one of the 3ey $illars Iustifying his rule 2hich could set in motion a stream of events leading to the eventual do2nfall of the Dear 5eader@ It is for this reason that any aid that =orth >orea receives must &e vie2ed as a concession from the other $arty out of said $arty?s fear of =orth >orea?s nuclear arsenal@ In layman?s termsG =orth >orea must al2ays &een seen as having the u$$er hand in any situation so as to maintain the air of su$eriority amongst its $eo$le@ The Importance 1f This *tudy To International elations %he im$ortance of this study in the greater conte7t of International Relations is that is $rovides tangi&le $roof of 2hat occurs 2hen a rogue state o&tains nuclear 2ea$ons@ =uclear Proliferation has &ecome a hot &utton issue in the International Relations $aradigm regarding glo&al security 2ith one of the maIor areas of concern &eing 2hen rogue states or non state actors o&tain nuclear 2ea$ons@ =orth >orea cannot &e utili0ed to conIecture 2hat 2ill occur 2hen non state actors o&tain nuclear 2ea$ons forA as a sovereign nationA they o$erate differently than a non state actor 2ould@ <o2everA they are a rogue state and their situation can there&y &e &roadened to o&tain an outline for 2hat occurs 2hen rogue states o&tain the &om&@ ;hat can also &e gleaned from this study is the im$ortance of =orth >orea?s =uclear Di$lomacy in sha$ing the future of the >orean Peninsula andA in a greater
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conte7tA the future of 6ast Asia@ (urrentlyA the >orean Peninsula is the story of $olar o$$ositesDa free "outh >orea 2ith a &ooming economy and an o$$ressive =orth >orean regime 2ith a desolate economy@ For decadesA $undits have falsely declared the looming end of the =orth >orean regime and the $ossi&ility of a unified >orean Peninsula@ ;hile these claims have yet to come trueA one must 2eigh the im$ortance of the =orth >orean arsenal should the =orth >orean regime to$$le or &egin to to$$le@ If the =orth >orean regime &egins to colla$seA one must account for the fact that =orth >orea does have nuclear 2ea$ons and 2ould &e more inclined to use them if it &ecame &latantly o&vious it 2as the end of the =orth >orean state@ If this did occurA there is a real $ossi&ility that these 2ea$ons 2ould &e directed at "eoul andA should they successfully ma3e contact in "eoulA 2ould send "eoulA and the rest of "outh >oreaA &ac3 into third 2orld status 2hile creating unimagina&le damage@ 6ven if this did not occurA a =orth >orean colla$se means the $ossession of nuclear 2ea$ons &y rogue military generals or non state actors@ %o this $ointA the 2orld has yet to co$e 2ith such a scenario &utA should it occurA it 2ould generate enormous tension 2ithin the conte7t of the international community@ ;ith regards to the greater conte7t of 6ast AsiaA =orth >orea $resents a geo$olitical &uffer &et2een (hina and $ro America "outh >orea and &et2een $otential (hinese Asiatic hegemony and a stronger American influence in the region@ "hould =orth >orea colla$seA the most li3ely scenario 2ould &e a unifiedA $ro United "tatesA >orea 2hich 2ould &e a serious affront to (hinese hegemony in the region@ %his 2ould further increase the tensions &et2een the t2o $o2ersA es$ecially considering that one of the t2o states !"outh >orea or (hina# 2ould garner $ossession of the =orth >orean nuclear arsenal@ ;hile (hina is a nucleari0ed stateA "outh >orea has relied on the nuclear
.ershon 49
um&rella of the United "tates for $rotection and their garnering of =orth >orea?s =uclear Program 2ould have serious im$lications on the future of 6ast Asian security and $olitical discourse@ The Need For 0ore esearch ;hile this thesis has ans2ered the questions generated in the First (ha$terA it has also discovered certain questions that generate the need for more research to &e conducted@ For instanceA this research did not touch on the im$ortance of Ea$an and Russia a$ro$os of =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy@ ;hileA this thesis negated Ea$an?s role for their refusal to engage in the "i7 Party %al3s outside of the conte7t of receiving re$arations for the =orth >orean 3idna$$ing of Ea$anese citi0ensA this refusal to engage $ast this $oint must have some effect on the 2ay in 2hich =orth >orea o$erates@ (oncurrentlyA this thesis did not even attem$t to cover the Russian influence on =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy &ecause of the $arameters set forth regarding the length of the thesis and the need to fully engage 2ith 2hat I &elieve 2ere the most im$ortant countries to =orth >oreaDthe United "tatesA (hinaA and "outh >orea@ If =orth >orea 2anted Russia to Ioin the "P% to counteract the additions of "outh >orea and Ea$an then they must have had a reason for this and this reason should &e fully e7tra$olated u$on@ =ot Iust this &ut even amongst the most im$ortant countries to the "P%A "outh >orea 2as not engaged 2ith to the fullest e7tent@ 'ne could 2rite a thesis solely on the "outh >orean =orth >orean relations vis V vis the "P% and =orth >orean =uclear Di$lomacy@ -ore a&stractlyA it 2ould &e very interesting to see ho2 a$$lica&le the study of =orth >orean?s =uclear Di$lomacy 2ould &e to other rogue states and their attem$ts to garner nuclear 2ea$ons@ ;hile it 2as &riefly mentioned at the start of this cha$terA there
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is much more research to &e conducted on this to$ic 2hich 2ould &e e7tremely valua&le in the formulation of foreign $olicy@ 6s$ecially no2A 2ith the air of revolution &re2ing in many of these rogue statesA ho2 the conce$t of =uclear Proliferation sha$es these countries should &e of the u$most im$ortance@ =ot only thisA &ut the conce$t of =uclear Proliferation is a relatively ne2 conce$t and is in dire need of some ne2 research to hel$ develo$ the data on it further@ The Future It is e7tremely difficult to $redict the future in International RelationsA es$ecially 2hen dealing 2ith a country as volatile as =orth >oreaA &ut this section 2ill attem$t to e7tra$olate on current events in =orth >orea and 2hat they might say a&out the future of the <ermit >ingdom@ %he t2o events that 2ill &e analy0ed are the sin3ing of the R'>" Cheonan in -arch 2010 and the shelling of Feon$yeong Island in =ovem&er 2010@ %hese t2o events 2ill &e analy0ed simultaneously &ecause their causual varia&les are the sameDthe im$ending succession of >im Eong Un@ In "e$tem&er 2010A in &et2een these t2o eventsA the ;P> met for the first time in thirty years and >im Eong Un 2as anointed the im$ending leader of the DPR>@ %he im$ortance of these t2o events is that they 2ere utili0ed to solidify the >im?s hold on $o2er and ease the transition from >im Eong Il to >im Eong Un@ %hese events 2ere ris3y for they 2ere direct military attac3sA one of 2hich 2ere the first attac3 on "outh >orean soil since the >orean ;ar and accrued civilian deathsA &ut this ris3iness sho2ed the military?s dedication to the >im Regime@ %his is quite im$ortant in the $o2er transition for =orth >orea o$erates on a B-ilitary FirstC $olicy so an out2ard dis$lay of military su$$ort for the >im Regime internally hel$ed
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quell any dissent that might have arisen in the >;P over the succession of the relatively un3no2n and un$roven >im Eong Un@ (urrentlyA =orth >orea has stated their intent to test a third nuclear 2ea$on sometime in 2011@142 Utili0ing the analysis $resented in this thesis to conIecture the meaning &ehind this actionA it a$$ears to &e in $art due to >im Eong Un asserting his $resence on the 2orld stage14) and in $art an attem$t &y the >im regime to &ring America &ac3 to the negotiating ta&le@14* =orth >orea 2as relatively quiet follo2ing the Feon$yeong Island shelling and this 2ea$on test 2ill allo2 it toA once againA reassert its $resence on the 2orld stage@ =ot only this &ut it 2ill &e a 2ay to ma3e sure that =orth >orean has not fallen off of the United "tates? agenda@ In summationA one can e7$ect the same harsh rhetoric and &ra0en attac3s &y the <ermit >ingdom as have &ecome common$lace over the $ast years for as long as the >im Regime remains in $o2erD 2hich it a$$ears it 2ill &e doing for a long time@
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"unny 5eeA B=orth >orea "et 'n %hird =uclear %estAC Asia Ti!esA Eanuary 22A 2011A htt$GHH222@atimes@comHatimesH>oreaH-A22Dg01@html@ 173 ;hile >im Eong Il is technically in $o2er until his deathA his failing heath and the need to indoctrinate >im Eong Un as soon as $ossi&le in the $osition of ruler of =orth >orea can lead to the assum$tion that the maIority of =orth >orea?s action from here on out 2ill &e the doing of >im Eong Un@ 174 'n A$ril /A 2009A =orth >orea attem$ted to launch a satellite into s$aceA des$ite international $ressure not to do so@ %he main reason for the international $ressure 2as a fear that the satellite 2as actually a %ae$odong 2 I(B- !Intercontinental Ballistic -issile#@ %his test 2as a failure and the satellite fell into the Pacific 'cean &riefly after launch@ 'n A$ril 1)A 2009A the U="(A the United "tatesA and "outh >orea im$osed heavy sanctions u$on the <ermit >ingdom for the launch and =orth >orea res$ondedA on A$ril 1*A 2009A 2ith a statement that it 2as officially leaving the "i7 Party %al3sA 2ould never again $artici$ate in such a gatheringA and informed the IA6A that it 2ould resume its =uclear 2ea$ons Program@ %henA on -ay 2/A 2009A =orth >orea successful detonated its second =uclear ;ea$on@ 6ver since this timeA =orth >orean United "tates relations have &een very tenuous 2ith a lac3 of dialogue &et2een the t2o &eing the $aradigm@
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;or3s (ited DDD@ BBefore %al3sA =orth >orea Accuses U@"@ of N<ostile? Policy@C Ne- *or. Ti!esA Decem&er 14A 2001@ htt$GHHquery@nytimes@comHgstHfull$age@htmlK resL9,0(62DF1))1F9)*A2/4/1(1A9109(,B1)@ DDD@ B(hief of >PA .eneral "taff on DPR>?s Intention to Bolster Its =uclear Deterrent@C KCNAA A$ril ,A 200/@ DDD@ BDPR> "uccessfully (onducts Underground =uclear %est@C KCNAA 'cto&er 9A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$Hinde7 e@htm !'cto&er 1*A 2001#@ DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inistry (larifies "tand on =e2 -easure to Bolters ;ar Deterrent@C KCNAA 'cto&er )A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200110Hne2s10H0*@htm@ DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inistry: DPR>?s "tand on "i7 Party %al3s Reclarified@C KCNAA Euly 1A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200101Hne2s01H02@htm
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DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inistry Refutes NResolution of U= "ecurity (ouncil@C KCNAA Euly 11A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200104Hne2s04H1,@htm@ DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inistry "$o3esman on Its -issile 5aunches@C KCNAA Euly 1A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200104Hne2s04H04@htm@ DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inistry "$o3esman on U@"@ -oves (oncerning Its =uclear %est@C KCNAA 'cto&er 11A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200110Hne2s10H12@htm@ DDD@ BDPR> F- on Its "tand to "us$end Its Partici$ation in "i7 $arty %al3s for Indefinite Period@C KCNAA Fe&ruary 10A 200/@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH200/H200/02Hne2s02H11@htm@ DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inistry Refutes NResolution of U= "ecurity (ouncil@C KCNAA Euly 11A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH2001H200104Hne2s04H1,@htm@ DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inister "$o3esman %otally Refutes U="( NResolution@?C KCNAA 'cto&er 14A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$Hinde7 e @htm@ DDD@ BDPR> Foreign -inister "$o3esman on its -issile 5aunches@C KCNAA Euly 1A 2001@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$Hinde7 e @htm@ DDD@ BF- "$o3esman Blasts 8irulent 'utcries of U@"@ Am&assador to "@ >orea@C KCNAA Decem&er 10A 200/@ htt$GHH222@3cna@co@I$HitemH200/H200/12Hne2s12H12@htm@ DDD@ B Initial Actions for the Im$lementation of the Eoint "tatement@C 4inistr+ of Forei'n Affairs of the Peo le=s Re ublic of ChinaA Fe&ruary 1)A 2004@ htt$GHH222@fm$rc@gov@cnHengH0777Ht294*1)@htm@ DDD@ BEa$an?s Defence Pro&lematiqueC@ The Pacific Revie- , !199/#G )*@
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=ovem&er 21A 2010@ htt$GHH222@foreign$olicy@comHarticlesH2010H11H21HchinaJhel$J2ithJnorthJ3oreaJfu ggeda&outit@ FosterA Aidan (arter@ BFor the >imsA the ;ea3est 5in3 is Family@C Asia Ti!esA 'cto&er 22A 2010@ htt$GHH222@atimes@comHatimesH>oreaH5E22Dg01@html@ Funa&ashiA Foichi@ The Peninsula ?uestion0 A Chronicle of the Second Nuclear Crisis@ ;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ing Institution PressA 2004@ .iacomoA (arol@ B=@ >orea hints at cur&ing money laundering@C Reuters6 Eanuary 2/A 2001@ htt$GHH222@chinadaily@com@cnHenglishHdocH2001 01H21HcontentJ/1/42*@htm@ .rahamA %homas ;@ B%he International Atomic 6nergy AgencyG (an It 6ffectively <alt the Proliferation of =uclear 2ea$onsKC In U>S> Polic+ and the Future of the United NationsA edited &y Roger A@ (oateA ,9 112@ =e2 For3G %2entieth (entury Fund PressA 199*@ .reimelA <ans@ BU@"@A =@ >orea Agree to <old =u3e %al3s@C Associate PressA Eanuary 20A 2004@ htt$GHH222@thefreeli&rary@comHU@"@A[=@[>orea[agree[to[hold[nu3e[tal3s a01111)2,99,@ <a23enA Angela and -att 5eighty@ B;ant to >no2 ;hat =orth >oreans %hin3 A&out >im Eong UnKC Forei'n Polic+A =ovem&er 2/A 2010@ htt$GHH222@foreign$olicy@comHarticlesH2010H11H2/H2antJtoJ3no2J2hatJnorthJ3ore ansJthin3Ja&outJ3imJIongJun@ <eoA U3 and %erence Roehrig@ South Korea Since "#:9@ =e2 For3G (am&ridge University PressA 2010@ <odgeA <omer %@ B=orth >orea?s -ilitary "trategyC@ in Para!etersA "$ring 200)@
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htt$GHHcarlisle 222@army@milHusa2cHParametersH0)s$ringHhodge@htm@ <oggA (hris@ B;i3ilea3s ca&lesG (hina Nfrustrated? &y =orth >orea@C 11CA =ovem&er )0A 2010@ htt$GHH222@&&c@co@u3Hne2sH2orld us canada 11,411*1@ <olstA Eohan EorgenA and >aren -elander@ B6uro$ean "ecurity and (onfidence Building -easuresC@ Survival * !EulyHAugust 1944#G *1@ <yunA In %ae3A "hin 2ha 5eeA and .il&ert Ro0manA eds@ South Korean Strate'ic Thou'ht To-ard Asia@ =e2 For3G Palgrave -acmillanA 200,@ EooA "eung <o and %ae <2an >2anA eds@ North Korea=s Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Securit+@ <am$shireG AshgateA 2004@ Eong FilA Ra@ B=orth >orea?s N-ilitary First? Politics are Behind Recent Attac3s@C Christian Science 4onitorA =ovem&er 21A 2010@ htt$GHH222@csmonitor@comH(ommentaryH'$inionH2010H112)H=orth >orea s military first $olitics are &ehind recent attac3s@ >ahnA Eose$h@ B=orth >orea "ays It ;ill A&andon =uclear 6fforts@C The Ne- *or. Ti!es6 "e$tem&er 19A 200/@ htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH200/H09H19HinternationalHasiaH193orea@html@ >ellyA Eames A@ B=orth >oreaG %o2ards a =e2 International 6ngagement Frame2or3CA Remar3s to the Research (onferenceA ;ashingtonA D(A Fe&ruary 1)A 200*@ >ellyA Eames@ BU@"@ Policy in 6ast Asia and the PacificG (hallenges and PrioritiesAC %estimony &efore the "u&committee on 6ast Asia and the PacificA <ouse (ommittee on International RelationsA ;ashingtonA D@(@A Eune 12A 2001@ htt$GHH222@state@govH$Hea$HrlsHrmH2001H)144@htm@
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>eohaneA Ro&ert@ BInternational InstitutionsG %2o A$$roachesC@ &nternational Studies ?uarterl+ )2 !19,,#G )92@ >esslerA .lenn and (olum 5ynch@ BU@=@ 8otes to Im$ose "anctions on =@>oreaA (ouncil Demands 6nd to =uclear Program@C (ashin'ton PostA 'cto&er 1/A 2001@ htt$GHH222@2ashington$ost@comH2$ dynHcontentHarticleH2001H10H1*HAR2001101*00)/*@html@ >imA Eac3@ B"outh >orea Defense -inister +uits After Attac3@C ReutersA =ovem&er 2/A 2010@ htt$GHH222@reuters@comHarticleHidU"5)61-=0"+2010112/@ >imA >yuryoonA ed@ North Korea=s ECternal Econo!ic Relations@ "eoulG >orea Institute for =ational UnificationA 200,@ >imA "amuel "@A ed@ &nter-Korean Relations0 Proble!s and Pros ects@ =e2 For3G Palgrave -acmillanA 200*@ >imA %ae2oo >im@ BEa$an?s =e2 "ecurity Roles and R'> Ea$an RelationsC@ The Korea $ournal of 5efensive Anal+sis 11 !1999#G 11* ,@ >ir3A Donald@ B=orth >orea?s =e2 Da2n 2ith >im Eong Un@C Christian Science 4onitorA 'cto&er /A 2010@ htt$GHH222@csmonitor@comH;orldHAsia "outh (entralH2010H100/H=orth >orea s ne2 da2n 2ith >im Eong un@ >2a3A %ae <2anA and "eung <o EooA eds@ Peace Re'i!e 1uildin' on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asian Securit+ Coo eration@ "urreyG Ashgate Pu&lishing 5imitedA 2010@ 5ands&ergA -itchell@ B=@ >orea =uclear %al3s 6nd 2ith =o Resolution@C Los An'eles Ti!es6 Decem&er 2)A 2001@ htt$GHHarticles@latimes@comH2001HdecH2)H2orldHfg nor3or2)H)@
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5andlerA -ar3@ B=orth >orea "ays It ;ill <alt %al3s and Restart Its =uclear Program@C Ne- *or. Ti!esA A$ril 1*A 2009@ htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2009H0*H1/H2orldHasiaH1/3orea@htmlKJrL1@ 5eeA Brian@ BDefense Pa$erG =orth Boosts Artillery &ut (uts %an3sA ArmorC@ $oon'an' &lboA Fe&ruary /A 200/@ 5eeA (hae Ein@ A Troubled Peace0 U>S> Polic+ and The T-o Koreas@ BaltimoreG %he Eohns <o$3ins University PressA 2001@ 5eeA (hung -in and Eonathan D@ Pollac3@ Pre arin' for Korean Unification0 Scenarios and &! lications@ "anta -onicaG RA=DA 1999@ 5eeA "ung Foon@ B%he Pyongyang Play&oo3@C Forei'n AffairsA August 21A 2010@ htt$GHH222@foreignaffairs@comHarticlesH11/,1Hsung yoon leeHthe $yongyang $lay&oo3K$ageLsho2@ 5eeA "unny @ B=orth >orea "et 'n %hird =uclear %est@C Asia Ti!esA Eanuary 22A 2011@ htt$GHH222@atimes@comHatimesH>oreaH-A22Dg01@html@ 5imA Ro&yn@ The 2eo olitics of East Asia@ =e2 For3G RoutledgeA 200)@ 5indA Eennifer@ B%he 'nce and Future >imG "uccession and "tasis in =orth >orea@C Forei'n AffairsA 'cto&er 2/A 2010@ htt$GHH222@foreignaffairs@comHarticlesH11,40H&y Iennifer lindHthe once and future 3imK$ageLsho2@ 5ynchA (olum@ B=orth >orea Accused of 8iolating U@=@ "anctions on =uclear 2ea$ons %rade@C Forei'n Polic+A =ovem&er 9A 2010@ htt$GHHturtle&ay@foreign$olicy@comH$ostsH2010H11H09HnorthJ3oreaJaccusedJofJviolati ngJunJsanctionsJonJnuclearJ2ea$onsJtrade@
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-acintoshA Eames@ Confidence 1uildin' and Securit+ 1uildin' 4easures in the Ar!s Control Process0 A Canadian Pers ective> 'tta2aG De$artment of 67ternal AffairsA 19,/@ -acintyreA Donald A@ 5@A .i ;oo3 "hinA and Daniel (@ "neiderA eds@ First 5rafts of Korea0 The U>S> 4edia and Perce tions of the Last Cold (ar Frontier@ ;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2009@ -artinA Bradley >@ B=orth >oreaG Pity the "on of >im Eong Il@C 2lobalPostA "e$tem&er 24A 2010@ htt$GHH222@glo&al$ost@comHdis$atchHnorth 3oreaH100924H3im Iong il un succession@ -ichishitaA =arushige@ North Korea3s 4ilitar+-5i lo!atic Ca! ai'ns6 "#77-899:@ =e2 For3G RoutledgeA 2010@ -yersA B@R@ B=orth >orea ;ill =ever Play =ice@C The Ne- *or. Ti!esA =ovem&er 2*A 2010@ htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H2/Ho$inionH2/myers@html@ -yersA B@R@ The Cleanest Race0 ;o- North Koreans See The!selvesAnd (h+ &t 4atters@ Broo3lynG -elville <ouseA 2010@ =atsiosA Andre2@ The Politics of Fa!ine in North Korea0 S ecial Re ort A"> ;ashington D@(@G U" Institute of PeaceA 2 August 1999@ =icolasA Francoise@ Korea and the 5ual Chinese Challen'e> "eoulG >orea Institute for International 6conomic PolicyA 200/ 'dellA Eohn "@ B(ase "tudy -ethods in International Political 6conomy@C &nternational Studies Pers ectives 2 !2001#G 111 141@ 'lsonA 5a2rence@ $a an in Post-ar Asia@ 5ondonG Pall -all PressA 1940@
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PerryA ;illiam E@ Revie- of United States Polic+ To-ard North Korea0 Findin's and Reco!!endations6 Unclassified Re ort> ;ashingtonA D@(@G %he United "tates De$artment of "tateA 'cto&er 12A 1999@ PritchardA (harles 5@ Failed 5i lo!ac+0 The Tra'ic Stor+ of ;o- North Korea 2ot the 1o!b@ ;ashingtonA D@(@G Broo3ings Institution PressA 2004@ RamstadA 6van@ B>orea?s >im 6levates "on@C (all-Street $ournalA "e$tem&er 2,A 2010@ htt$GHHonline@2sI@comHarticleH"B10001*2*0/24*,40*1/*00*/4//14*4024//1001*@h tmlK>6F;'RD"L68A=[RA-"%AD@ RiceA (ondolee00a@ '$ening Remar3sA "enate Foreign Relations (ommitteeA ;ashingtonA D@(@ Eanuary 1,A 200/@ "almonA Andre2@ B%heories a&ound on =@ >orea attac3@C CNNA =ovem&er 2*A 2010@ htt$GHHarticles@cnn@comH2010 11 2*H2orldHnorth@3orea@attac3@analysisJ1Jdefense minister 3im tae young $yongyang succession $rocessKJsLP-G;'R5D@ "angerA David 6@ B=orth >oreans Unveil =e2 Plant for =uclear Use@C Ne- *or. Ti!es6 =ovem&er 20A 2010@ htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2010H11H21H2orldHasiaH21intel@htmlK JrL2Xh$@ "angerA David 6@ BU@"@ "aid to ;eigh a =e2 A$$roach on =orth >orea@C Ne- *or. Ti!esA -ay 1,A 2001@ htt$GHH222@nytimes@comH2001H0/H1,H2orldHasiaH1,3orea@html@ "cala$inoA Ro&ert A@ North Korea at a Crossroads> "tanfordA (AG <oover Institution PressA 1994@ "igalA 5eon 8@ BAn Instinct for the (a$illaries@C =ortheast Asia (oo$erative "ecurity
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ProIect at the "ocial "cience Research (ouncil "eoul ;ashington ForumA co hosted &y the "eIong Institute and the (enter for =ortheast Asian PolicyA the Broo3ings Institution ;ashingtonA -ay 1A 2001@ htt$GHH222@&roo3ings@eduHcommHeventsH20010/01Jsigal@$df "igalA 5eon 8@ 5isar!in' Stran'ers0 Nuclear 5i lo!ac+ -ith North Korea@ PrincetonG Princeton University PressA 1994@ "mithA <a0el@ Reconstitutin' Korean Securit+0 A Polic+ Pri!er@ %o3yoG United =ations University PressA 2004@ "mithA "teve@ B;endt?s ;orld@C Revie- of &nternational Studies 21 !2002#G 112@ "onA >ey young@ South Korean En'a'e!ent Policies and North Korea@ 5ondonG RoutledgeA 200)@ "oraceA (hristian@ O"aint -ao@O In E1SC) 4e'aF&LE> htt$sGHH$ro7y@li&rary@u$enn@eduHloginKurlLhtt$GHHsearch@e&scohost@comHlogin@as$7K directLtrueXd&L3ehXA=L/19)*024XsiteLehost live@ %ama3iA %a3u@ 5econstructin' $a an=s &!a'e of South Korea0 &dentit+ in Forei'n Polic+@ =e2 For3G Palgrave -acmillanA 2010@ %isdallA "imon@ B;i3ilea3s ca&les reveal (hina Mready to a&andon =orth >oreaM@C 2uardian6 =ovem&er 29A 2010@ htt$GHH222@guardian@co@u3H2orldH2010HnovH29H2i3ilea3s ca&les china reunified 3orea@ U@"@ De$artment of the %reasury@ B"tatement &y the DAD .laser on the Dis$osition of DPR> Related Funds Fro0en at Banco Delta Asia@C <P )22A -arch 19A 2004@
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