Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Tim Trush, Julie Lavrin, T&J Profit Club, 200 , !ll rights reserved
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Table Of Contents
Chapter I: Why do traders fail?
I.1. A shoc ing e!periment""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""#
$al%h &ince is a "ell 'no"n financial investor. (e %erformed a ver# famous e)%eriment 'no"n as the $al%h &ince e)%eriment. *nl# t"o students out of +0 "ere able to ma'e mone#, the other ,- failed to succeed. .h#/0
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Tim is trading... Tim made a %rofit. ...the# both trade the same strateg#0 """.truemone#management.com ?
H)am%leA 2u# 52PJ879 at 2.0000 (o" big %osition should < o%en/ H)am%le targets Dgiven b# a strateg#EA <nitial !ccountA You "ant to ris' I@ (o" man# minilots should < o%en/ <f #ou o%en > minilotA one %i% K => I0 %i%s K =I0 You "ould ris' onl# =I0. The re"ard "ould be onl# =>00. one %i% K =I I0 %i%s K =2I0 You "ill ris' e)actl# =2I0. The re"ard "ill be =I00. That1s "hat #ou "anted. Minilots 4 5+3 Account2 6 57is in pips2 Ta'e %rofitA TP K 2.0>00 7to%lossA 7L K >.LLI0 =I000 =2I0 $e"ard is >00 %i%s. $is' is I0 %i%s.
You need to o%en I minilotsA !ns"erA 2u# I minilots of 52PJ879. The formula isA
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8!ample a2 <magine #ou are trading a strateg# "ith ?0@ "inning %ercentage and let the re"ard be t"o times more than the ris'. That means that #ou set u% #our %rofit target t"o times bigger than the sto%loss. Cor e)am%le, if #ou bet =>00, #ou "ill either get =200, or lose =>00. !nother e)am%leA if #ou bet =2I0, #ou "ill either get =I00, or lose =2I0. <magine #ou are a disci%lined trader starting "ith =I000 and ris'ing =2I0 on ever# single trade. The histor# of t"ent# trades should loo' li'e thisA Trade :o. > 2 , + I ? L >0 >> >2 >, >+ >I >? > >>L 20 !ccount =I000 =II00 =?000 =I I0 =?2I0 =?000 =?I00 = 000 =? I0 = 2I0 = 000 = I00 =-000 = I0 =-2I0 =-000 =-I00 =L000 =- I0 =L2I0 $is' =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 =2I0 .*:JL*7T .*: =I00 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 .*: =I00 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 .*: =I00 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 .*: =I00 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 .*: =I00 L*7T =M2I0 !ccount =II00 =?000 =I I0 =?2I0 =?000 =?I00 = 000 =? I0 = 2I0 = 000 = I00 =-000 = I0 =-2I0 =-000 =-I00 =L000 =- I0 =L2I0 =L000
Your account reached =L000 so #ou earned =+000 after t"ent# trades. This 'ind of mone# management is "idel# used b# the disci%lined traders but it has t"o disadvantagesA <t "ill not ma'e #ou rich. You "ill earn a constant sum of mone# each month. That1s the same as being em%lo#ed. Nuiet ineffective. !fter ten consecutive losses, #ou "ill "i%e out a half of #our initial account D=2I00E. !fter t"ent# losses #ou "ill "i%e out the "hole account D=I000E.
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b2 Imagine you are trading the same strategy but using another money management. The ad-anced money management is to ris a constant percentage of your current account e-ery time. It is recommended to choose +3 for beginners. 8!ample b2 The histor# of t"ent# trades should loo' li'e thisA Trade :o. > 2 , + I ? L >0 >> >2 >, >+ >I >? > >>L 20 !ccount =I000 =II00 =?0I0 =I + .I =?,22.2I =?00?.>+ =??0?. I = 2? .+, =?L0+.0? = IL+.+? = 2>+. + = L,?.2> =- 2L.-, =-2L,.,+ =L>22.? =-???.I+ =LI,,.2 =>0+-?.I> =LL?2.>L =>0LI-.+> $is' I@ =2I0 =2 I =,02.I =2- .,=,>?.>> =,00.,> =,,0.,+ =,?,., =,+I.2 =, L. 2 =,?0. + =,L?.-> =+,?.+L =+>+.? =+I?.>, =+,,.,, =+ ?.?? =I2+.,, =+L-.>> =I+ .L2 .*:JL*7T .*: =I00 .*: =II0 L*7T =M,02.I .*: =I +. I L*7T =M,>?.>> .*: =?00.?> .*: =??0.?L*7T =M,?,., .*: =?L0.+> L*7T =M, L. 2 .*: = 2>.+ .*: = L,.?2 L*7T =M+,?.+L .*: =-2L.,, L*7T =M+I?.>, .*: =-??.?I .*: =LI,.,2 L*7T =MI2+.,, .*: =LL?.22 L*7T =MI+ .L2 !ccount =II00 =?0I0 =I + .I =?,22.2I =?00?.>+ =??0?. I = 2? .+, =?L0+.0? = IL+.+? = 2>+. + = L,?.2> =- 2L.-, =-2L,.,+ =L>22.? =-???.I+ =LI,,.2 =>0+-?.I> =LL?2.>L =>0LI-.+> =>0+>0.+L
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There are fe" advantagesA The first thing #ou have noticed, #ou have earned more. <n the %revious e)am%le =L000, no" =>0,+>0. You act li'e trader Tim. The smaller the account, the less #ou ris'. !s #our ca%ital gro"s, #ou can o%en larger %osition. This leads to an e)%onential gro"th. !s #our account reaches =>0,000, #ou ris' t"o times more than =2I0 Dbecause I@ of =>0000 K =I00E. !s #our account reaches =20,000, #ou ris' four times more Dbecause I@ of =20,000 K =>000E. <t is glad to see that ma'ing =>0000 dollars costs the same time as ma'ing =I000 dollars before. You can double #our mone# ever# fe" months. This is the "a# ho" ne" multimillionaires born. The %robabilit# of "i%ing out the "hole account tends to Fero. .e "ill cover this to%ic in the ne)t %aragra%h.
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Imagine the &orst possible situation. Ten or t"ent# consecutive losses in a ro". ! horrible bad luc' or %oor trading. Ten consecutive losses "ould %robabl# ruin ever# beginner. 2ut loo' "hat ha%%ened. !ctuall#, #ou have lost less than a half of #our account. Loo' "hat ha%%ened after t"ent# consecutive losses in a ro" Dan e)tremel# unli'el# coincidenceE. You are still alive0 <f #ou used the basic mone# management described in %aragra%h <<<.>. aE, #our account "ould definitel# fall to Fero Dbecause I@ ) 20 losses K >00@ accountE. The math formula holdsA
:o" #ou can easil# com%ute "hat ha%%ens after n consecutive losses if #ou start "ith account value &. H)am%lesA p K I, n K >0 p K I, n K 20 p K >0, n K >0
I000 O D> B 0.0IE>0 K I000 O 0.LI>0 K 2LL,.?I000 O D> B 0.0IE K I000 O 0.LI K > L2.+, I000 O D> B 0.>0E>0 K I000 O 0.L0>0 K > +,.,L
20 20
The last e)am%le sho"s us "hat ha%%ened after ten losses if #ou ris'ed >0@ instead of I@. You are still alive. 7ome ver# advanced traders ris' >0@ or far more. 7ince the# ris' more and get more, the# achieve amaFing results on the trading com%etitions De.g. .orld Cu% Cham%ionshi%PE. This is their secret. Remember: !uccessful traders are prepared for the worst possible situation Unsuccessful traders hope it will not happen
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)appy Trading*
$is' disclaimerA Trading foreign e)change on margin carries a high level of ris', and ma# not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can "or' against #ou as "ell as for #ou. 2efore deciding to invest in foreign e)change #ou should carefull# consider #our investment obGectives, level of e)%erience, and ris' a%%etite. The %ossibilit# e)ists that #ou could sustain a loss of some or all of #our initial investment and therefore #ou should not invest mone# that #ou cannot afford to lose. CCTC $8LH +.+> M (#%othetical %erformance results have man# inherent limitations. :o re%resentation is being made that an# account "ill or is li'el# to achieve %rofits or losses similar to those sho"n. <n fact, there are fre6uentl# shar% differences bet"een h#%othetical %erformance results and the actual results subse6uentl# achieved b# an# %articular trading %rogram. *ne of the limitations of h#%othetical %erformance results is that the# are generall# %re%ared "ith the benefit of hindsight. <n addition, h#%othetical trading does not involve financial ris'. &ariables such as the abilit# to adhere to a %articular trading %rogram in s%ite of trading losses as "ell as maintaining ade6uate li6uidit# are material %oints "hich can adversel# affect actual real trading results.
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