Chapter 9, Part B Hypothesis Tests

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Learning objectives
1. Able to do hypothesis test about Population Proportion 2. Calculate the Probability of Type II Errors 3. Understand power of the test 4. Determine the Sample Size for Hypothesis Tests About a Population Mean

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses About a Population Proportion
The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in the null hypothesis. n In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population proportion p must take one of the following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized value of the population proportion).
n

H 0 : p p0 H a : p < p0
One-tailed (lower tail)

H 0 : p p0 H a : p > p0
One-tailed (upper tail)

H 0 : p = p0 H a : p p0
Two-tailed

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Tests About a Population Proportion

n

Test Statistic

z=
where:

p p0 p

p =

p0 (1 p0 ) n
p) > 5

assuming np > 5 and n(1

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Tests About a Population Proportion

n

Rejection Rule: p Value Approach Reject H0 if p value < Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach H0: p < p0 H0: p > p0 H0: p = p0 Reject H0 if z > z Reject H0 if z < -z Reject H0 if z < -z/2 or z > z/2

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Two-Tailed Test About a Population Proportion

n

Example: National Safety Council For a Christmas and New Year!s week, the National Safety Council estimated that 500 people would be killed and 25,000 injured on the nation!s roads. The NSC claimed that 50% of the accidents would be caused by drunk driving.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Two-Tailed Test About a Population Proportion

n

Example: National Safety Council A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67 were caused by drunk driving. Use these data to test the NSC!s claim with = .05.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Two-Tailed Test About a Population Proportion

n p Value and Critical Value Approaches 1. Determine the hypotheses.

H 0 : p = .5 H a : p .5
= .05

2. Specify the level of significance.

3. Compute the value of the test statistic. p =

z=

a common error is using p in this formula

p0 (1 p0 ) .5(1 .5) = = .045644 n 120

p p0 (67 /120) .5 = = 1.28 p .045644
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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Two-Tailed Test About a Population Proportion

n pValue Approach 4. Compute the p -value. For z = 1.28, cumulative probability = .8997 p value = 2(1 .8997) = .2006 5. Determine whether to reject H0. Because p value = .2006 > = .05, we cannot reject H0.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Two-Tailed Test About a Population Proportion

n Critical Value Approach 4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule. For /2 = .05/2 = .025, z.025 = 1.96 Reject H0 if z < -1.96 or z > 1.96 5. Determine whether to reject H0. Because 1.278 > -1.96 and < 1.96, we cannot reject H0.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

In-class exercise
n n

#35 (p.368) (two-tail test) #36 (p.368) (one-tail test)

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Statistical power
n

Type II error

As said earlier (Part a.), the conclusion that the research hypothesis is true comes from the test that contradict (or reject) the null hypothesis. When a test fails to reject a null hypothesis (i.e., accepts H0), type II error ( ) needs to be checked. A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false. When a test reject H0, possible error is Type I error that can be controlled easily. Article by Sawyer and Ball (1981)
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n n

L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error in Hypothesis Tests About a Population Mean
1. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses. 2. Using the critical value approach, use the level of significance to determine the critical value and the rejection rule for the test. 3. Using the rejection rule, solve for the value of the sample mean corresponding to the critical value of the test statistic.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error in Hypothesis Tests About a Population Mean
4. Use the results from step 3 to state the values of the sample mean that lead to the acceptance of H0; this defines the acceptance region. 5. Using the sampling distribution of x for a value of satisfying the alternative hypothesis, and the acceptance region from step 4, compute the probability that the sample mean will be in the acceptance region. (This is the probability of making a Type II error at the chosen level of .)

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error

n

Example: Metro EMS (revisited)

Recall that the response times for a random sample of 40 medical emergencies were tabulated. The sample mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes. The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a .05 level of significance, to determine whether or not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error

1. Hypotheses are: H0: < 12 and Ha: > 12 2. Rejection rule is: Reject H0 if z > 1.645 3. Value of the sample mean that identifies the rejection region:
z= x 12 1.645 3.2 / 40

3.2 x 12 + 1.645 = 12.8323 40

4. We will accept H0 when x < 12.8323

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error

5. Probabilities that the sample mean will be in the acceptance region: Values of 14.0 13.6 13.2 12.8323 12.8 12.4 12.0001
z= 12.8323 3.2 / 40

.0104 .0643 .2327 .5000 .5239 .8023 .9500

1- .9896 .9357 .7673 .5000 .4761 .1977 .0500

-2.31 -1.52 -0.73 0.00 0.06 0.85 1.645

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error

n

Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error Observations about the preceding table:
l

When the true population mean is close to the null hypothesis value of 12, there is a high probability that we will make a Type II error. Example: = 12.0001, = .9500 When the true population mean is far above the null hypothesis value of 12, there is a low probability that we will make a Type II error. Example: = 14.0, = .0104

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Power of the Test

n

The probability of correctly rejecting H0 when it is false is called the power of the test. For any particular value of , the power is 1 . We can show graphically the power associated with each value of ; such a graph is called a power curve. (See next slide.)

n n

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Power Curve
1.00

Probability of Correctly Rejecting Null Hypothesis

0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 11.5

H0 False

12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

In-class exercise
n n

#46 (p.374) #50 (p.375)

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
n

The specified level of significance determines the probability of making a Type I error.

n By controlling the sample size, the probability of making a Type II error is controlled.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
Sampling distribution of x when H0 is true and = 0

c
Reject H0

0
x

H0: < 0 Ha: > 0

Note: x =

c a

Sampling distribution of x when H0 is false and a > 0

x
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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
n= ( z + z ) 2 2 ( 0 a ) 2

where z = z value providing an area of in the tail z = z value providing an area of in the tail = population standard deviation 0 = value of the population mean in H0 a = value of the population mean used for the Type II error Note: In a two-tailed hypothesis test, use z /2 not z
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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Relationship Among , , and n

n n n

Once two of the three values are known, the other can be computed. For a given level of significance , increasing the sample size n will reduce . For a given sample size n, decreasing will increase , whereas increasing will decrease b.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
n

Let!s assume that the director of medical services makes the following statements about the allowable probabilities for the Type I and Type II errors: "If the mean response time is = 12 minutes, I am willing to risk an = .05 probability of rejecting H0. "If the mean response time is 0.75 minutes over the specification ( = 12.75), I am willing to risk a = .10 probability of not rejecting H0.

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
= .05, = .10 z = 1.645, z = 1.28 0 = 12, a = 12.75 = 3.2

(z + z )2 2 (1.645 +1.28)2(3.2)2 n= = =155.75 156 (0 a )2 (12 12.75)2

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L.O. Test for p Power Sample size

In-class exercise
n n

#54 (p.379) #55 (p.379)

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End of Chapter 9, Part B

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