November, 2013

November 2013 - Confidential

Summary In general commodities are under large downward pressure

WTI Momentum down Could be heading to 82.00 mid Dec13 for strong Buy. Nat gas - Could the momentum down be building for a last bottom close to 1.50? Neutral locally. Gold A sharp move down has been averted in Oct13, after breaking out Gold could move down and reach double bottom in a more mellow fashion. Silver More heavy than gold Could fall lower to 17.5 or 15.00 for strategic Buy. Corn Momentum down No brainer buy at 2.5 (not chasing down, very oversold locally). Sugar - Very tempting buy here 17.91 The trap could be: a last exhaustion move to 14.70 (the base was strong and built over 4months but it did 2 traps of the kind over the last 2 years). Coffee - Buy zone 1.05 to 0.90. It is tempting to buy here but there could be an exhaustion move beyond the local support which is an obvious one. Orange Juice - Seems ready to let go down No brainer buy: 2.5/4.00 (a sharp discount from here). Cocoa - Short before the picture darkens? Stop 29.00. Soybean Oil Momentum down no brainer buy at 2.5 (not chasing down as oversold and could rebound). Cotton Could break lower no brainer buy at 4.00. Feeder cattle The short is confirmed Join the trade before the momentum builds.
Yacine Kanoun 2

November 2013 - Confidential

WTI Weekly Linear

Failure after breakout

A momentum down is at play

Not chasing down as locally oversold

87.70 is support but might be broken given momentum

If 82.00in December 2013: strategic buy opportunity

Below this: excess or total collapse to 50 (I don't think so)

Yacine Kanoun 3

November 2013 - Confidential

Nat Gas Monthly Logarithmic

Slow motion Could it fall through again, build momentum down and reach 1.5 for a super strategic Buy? Breaks out if above 4.5 1.5 cant be reached before April14

Neutral for now

Yacine Kanoun

November 2013 - Confidential

Gold - Daily Linear

The breakout has no follow through for now

1264 is pivotal support

If 1264 is broken, Gold may slide to 1150/1100 in December for a strategic Buy

Yacine Kanoun

November 2013 - Confidential

Silver - Daily Linear

On Pivot/Cliff/Support Tight stop here on buys

If falls through: 18 or 14 for strategic buy

Yacine Kanoun

November 2013 - Confidential

Copper Linear Daily

3000 has supported so far

This 3months triangle is probably coming to conclusion and decent move is imminent

The direction is unclear yet: neutral

Academically it is should be up but Copper have had a messy behaviour for a while now

Yacine Kanoun

November 2013 - Confidential

Corn Daily Linear

It is on support /cliff But The Top has been marked 3 times with a last attempt which was crowded and collapsed around the roll

It may go lower

No brainer buy around 2 (very far but who knows)

Neutral for now

Yacine Kanoun

November 2013 - Confidential

Wheat Monthly Linear

Momentum down could resume to 4.5 where it is a great buy

Sell to target? Tight stop though (7.20)

Yacine Kanoun

November 2013 - Confidential

Sugar Weekly Linear

A breakout occurred. Follow through now? 18.00 key pivot/support If falls through 15.00 is the next level If things really go wrong for another 16 months, the no brainer support would be 7.50 (far but possible)

Note: there has been 2 breakout attempts that ended up falling through Confirmation breakout above 20.00
Yacine Kanoun 10

November 2013 - Confidential

Coffee Monthly Linear

Strong momentum down A few weeks move up is due It could happen from here (tempting or from 9.00) Note that if history reproduces we could have a short term bounce to 14 before falling all the way to 5 (historical support)

Buy 9 tactically for a few weeks if happens soon without intermediary rebound
Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Cocoa Monthly Logarithmic

No view Neutral

Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Cocoa Monthly Linear

On this graph it looks as if breaking above current level could be an important momentum upside breakout

Neutral still

Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Orange Juice Monthly Linear

If it falls the cliff, which is very possible, 5 would a strategic buy Sell here? Wait for the cliff to be passed and sell

A move to 5 could be done in 5 months(it did 22 to 10 in 5months)

Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Soybean Oil Monthly Linear

Fell the cliff as feared

Momentum down? Join the move down on local rebound with tight stop

Might fall to 2.2 which would be a great buy

Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Cotton Monthly Linear

Seems to have resumed the momentum down

Sell into it? Stop is 9.50 (a bit far but the potential is high too)

If there is a dive to 4 or even better 3: Buy Strategically

Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Feeder Cattle Weekly Linear

Just a great short

Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Note the method for commodities

Note about the analysis method For commodities, I am ignoring the local news flow which generally supports the local move. I am focusing on large Price Patterns which may provide final targets for the dynamic at play. Those final target are the point of entry for a potential Long or Short transactions.

Note about my Trading style:

I am contrarian so if a move in place is established since many weeks/months, I tend to look for the reversal area.
I will only hook to the existing momentum after a counter trend move that I understand could be over (locally contrarian still).

Yacine Kanoun

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November 2013 - Confidential

Contact Details

Yacine Kanoun + 44 (0) 773.332.85.77 yacine.kanoun@pivothunters.com www.pivothunters.com

Yacine Kanoun

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