4.5.2.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: A Global Perspective There are several indicators of water resource stress, including the amount of w ater available per person and the ratio of volume of water withdrawn to volume o f water potentially available. When withdrawals are greater than 20% of total re newable resources, water stress often is a limiting factor on development (Falke nmark and Lindh, 1976); withdrawals of 40% or more represents high stress. Simil arly, water stress may be a problem if a country or region has less than 1,700 m 3 yr-1 of water per capita (Falkenmark and Lindh, 1976). Simple numerical indice s, however, give only partial indications of water resources pressures in a coun try or region because the consequences of water stress depend on how the water is managed. Table 4-6: Number of people living in water-stressed countries that are adversel y affected by climate change, under a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a) (Arnell, 2000). Total Population Population in Water-Stressed Countries Number of People (millions) in Water-Stressed Countries with Increase in Water Scarcity (millions) (millions) HadCM2 HadCM3 ECHAM4 CGCM1 CCSR GFDL NCAR 2025 428 2050 8055 9505 5022 5915 338 623 545 2209 3195 488 1454 494 662 746 814 784 1291

CSIRO 403 1439

a Water-stressed countries use more than 20% of their available resources. At the global scale, assessments of water stress usually are made by country bec ause that is the unit at which water-use data generally are available. In 1990, approximately one-third of the world s population lived in countries using more th an 20% of their water resources, and by 2025 about 60% of a larger total would b e living in such stressed countries, in the absence of climate change (WMO, 1997 ), largely because population growth. Arnell (1999b, 2000) estimates the effect of a number of climate change scenarios on national water resource availability and compares this with estimated future demands for water (increasing following the CDS outlined in Section 4.4). Table 4-6 shows the numbers of people living i n countries using more than 20% of their water resources in 2025 and 2050 and in which the amount of resources decreases by more than 10% as a result of climate change. There is considerable variability between scenarios, essentially reflec ting how resources change in populous countries, but by the 2020s the table indi cates that about 0.5 billion people could see increased water resources stress a s a result of climate change. Significant geographic variations are hidden in Ta ble 4-6. Under most of the scenarios considered, climate change increases stress es in many countries in southern and western Africa and the Middle East, whereas it ameliorates stresses in parts of Asia. Alcamo et al. (1997) found broadly si milar results. Figure 4-4: National water resources per capita (m3 yr-1), in 1990 and 2050 unde r several climate change scenarios, for some countries (Arnell, 2000). Blue diam onds represent 1990; long pink bars 2050 with no climate change; and short black bars 2050 under different climate change scenarios. Figure 4-4 shows water resources per capita in 1990 and 2050 for a set of countr ies,as listed in Table 14-3 of the WGII contribution to the SAR, showing resourc es per capita in 2050 without climate change (long line) and under eight climate change scenarios (short lines) (Arnell, 2000). There are some differences with the earlier table because of the use of updated data sets, but similar conclusio ns can be drawn. Climate change tends to have a small effect relative to populat ion growth, and the range of magnitudes of effect between scenarios also is litt

le changed; the effects are still uncertain. For most of the example countries, climate change may result in either an increase or a decrease, although for some the climate change signal is more consistent (reductions in South Africa, Cypru s, and Turkey, for example, and increases in China). Note that these figures rep resent national averages, and different parts of each country may be differently affected. Table 4-7: Effect of stabilization of CO2 concentrations on numbers of people li ving in water-stressed countries adversely affected by climate change (Arnell et al., 2001). Climate change under each emissions scenario is simulated with HadC M2 general circulation model; other climate models could give different indicati ons of the effect of stabilization. Total Population Population in Water Stressed Countries Number of People (millions) in Water-Stressed Countries with Increase in Water Scarcity (millions) (millions) IS92a S750 S550 2025 2050 8055 9505 5022 5915 338 623 242 2209 3195 175 2108 1705

Table 4-7 gives an indication of the potential effect of stabilizing GHG concent rations on the total number of people living in water-stressed countries adverse ly affected by climate change (Arnell et al., 2001). The results are conditional on the climate model used and the stabilization scenario, but this study using ju st the HadCM2 climate model suggests that by the 2050s the weaker stabilization targ et has little effect on the total number of impacted people, and although the str onger target reduces the impact of climate change, it does not eliminate it. The changes by the 2020s are very much affected by climatic variability between the various GCM runs 1. For poor countries that have always faced hydrologic variability, climate change will make water security even more difficult and costly to achieve. Climate cha nge may also reintroduce water security challenges in countries that for a hundr ed years have enjoyed reliable water supplies and few, if any, water shocks. Muc h of the developing world will have to cope with droughts and/or the growing ris k of flooding.Currently, 1.6 billion people live in countries and regions with a bsolute water scarcity and the number is expected to rise to 2.8 billion people by 2025. Managing water resources using an integrated approach will be critical to mitiga te social, economic and environmental impacts. Coastal zone management, water su pply, and infrastructure as well as agriculture will all be affected. The effect s on natural systems will be widespread: from accelerated glacier melt, altered precipitation, runoff, and groundwater recharge patterns, to extreme droughts an d floods, water quality changes, saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers and cha nges in water use. The World Bank has adopted a climate-risk-management approach which focuses on t he resilience of development efforts to both present-day weather variability as well as projected climate change. To help countries manage their risks, water-re lated investment projects will help determine the impacts of climate change on h ydrology and water use, identify appropriate options, guidelines, and methodolog ies for adaptation. The World Bank recognizes the importance of the water and energy nexus. The Worl d Bank is scaling up it's support for hydropower as the largest source of renewa ble energy and low-carbon energy and is emphasizing demand management and energy efficiency as ways to reduce energy consumption in the provision of vital water services.

A flagship report entitled, "Water and Climate Change: Understanding the Risks a nd Making Climate-Smart Investment Decisions" contributes to the World Bank agen da on climate change and more specifically, informs the water sector on climate issues and climate-smart adaptation options. Using the existing knowledge and ad ditional analysis commissioned, the report illustrates that climate change is af fecting the hydrologic cycle and the projected future hydrology will have a dire ct impact on the water resources base availability, usage, and management.

In order to make any improvements regarding the issue of water scarcity in our w orld today, more than one solution is necessary. Although water scarcity is not a substantial problem to every country currently, many countries feel the effect s of water scarcity and the issue must be addressed. If this issue is not dealt with soon, it will become a problem for many other countries in the near future, some which are already beginning to feel the effects. There are several actions that would be effective in preserving and conserving water. One possible solution is the use of desalinization technology. This system is described as filtering salty water through membranes and removing the salt through electrodialysis and reverse osmosis. This procedure has worked for about 130 nations in North Africa and the Middle East. With this system, these n ations are currently producing six billion gallons of usable water a day (Arrand ale, 2002). Also, the United States has a total of about 1,200 desalinating plan ts, most of which are in modest-sized communities. Recently, however, the desali nization process has become much more practical for metropolitan areas and rever se-osmosis systems have made significant improvements. Despite these improvements, only 2.3% of wastewater that is generated by municip alities is currently being recycled and reused (Arrandale, 2002). If water were saved by utilizing reclaimed water for irrigation in Tuscon, Arizona alone, 31,0 00 families could be supported from this amount (Arrandale 2002). These innovati ons are also cost-effective. If Los Angeles County used reclaimed water instead of piping the water into the county, 26 million dollars would be saved in piping costs alone (Arrandale 2002). Globally implementing simple recycling and filtra tion systems would be a relatively easy task that would reap outstanding benefit s. Making these global advancements would be a monetarily and environmentally fr iendly step in the right direction towards the reduction of global water scarcit y. Our Solutions The task of conserving water can also be conquered on a smaller scale, beginning with small improvements in individual homes. One solution is to develop and man date more efficient household water heaters. In old homes with poor insulation, the time needed to heat up the water from a faucet or showerhead can often be ex tensive. With heated pipes and better insulation throughout the system, this was ted water would no longer be an issue as hot water would immediately pour from t he faucet. An example of a more efficiently insulated water heater is shown in F igure 7. If this improvement was mandated by the government and supported financ ially where necessary, the benefits would be sizeable. In addition to conservati on of water, heating costs would also be lower. In particularly old homes, heati ng costs for the entire house can be extremely high, especially in the winter. I f this idea can be advertised to homeowners as environmentally friendly as well as cost-effective, it should have a very high support rate. Although this is onl y a minute progression towards improving the issue of water scarcity, every achi evable method towards preventing this from becoming a large-scale problem is wor thwhile. Another solution to this problem, which tackles a different aspect o f water scarcity, is to compose new multinational treaties to specify water shar ing. There are currently a significant amount of treaties in effect regarding wa

ter, yet most of them don t properly distribute. These ineffective treaties also c ause apprehension between nations. Disputes over shared water resources have als o led to violence and even international tension (Gleick, 2001). Currently, wate rsheds of 261 major rivers are shared by two or more countries. These overlappin g claims provoke disputes, especially in recent years (Gleick, 2001). These new treaties would work towards eliminating unequal distribution so that areas with plentiful water resources would not be able to hoard them. Instead, the treaty w ould distribute the water according to the aridity and need of the region to ass ure appropriate allocation. A new multinational treaty would be exceedingly bene ficial in resolving water disputes as well as reducing tension and animosity bet ween nations. Plainly, more than one solution is necessary in order to reduce or s olve the issue of water scarcity that the world faces today. Any action, whether it may be improving insulation of water heating systems within the home, or com posing multinational treaties, is important and must be taken into consideration . Our world currently faces a dilemma regarding a limited water supply and if th e issue continues to progress without significant alterations, the consequences will be detrimental.